Russia's 21st-century tactics that combine cyberwarfare, an energetic information campaign and the use of highly trained special operation troops to seize the initiative from the West
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WASHINGTON — Secretary of State John Kerry has accused Russia of behaving in a “19th-century fashion” because of its annexation of Crimea.
But Western experts who have followed the success of Russian forces in carrying out PresidentVladimir V. Putin’s policy in Crimea and eastern Ukraine have come to a different conclusion about Russian military strategy. They see a military disparaged for its decline since the fall of the Soviet Union skillfully employing 21st-century tactics that combine cyberwarfare, an energetic information campaign and the use of highly trained special operation troops to seize the initiative from the West.
“It is a significant shift in how Russian ground forces approach a problem,” said James G. Stavridis, the retired admiral and former NATO commander. “They have played their hand of cards with finesse.”
The abilities the Russian military has displayed are not only important to the high-stakes drama in Ukraine, they also have implications for the security of Moldova, Georgia, Central Asian nations and even the Central Europe nations that are members of NATO.
The dexterity with which the Russians have operated in Ukraine is a far cry from the bludgeoning artillery, airstrikes and surface-to-surface missiles used to retake Grozny, the Chechen capital, from Chechen separatists in 2000. In that conflict, the notion of avoiding collateral damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure appeared to be alien.
Since then Russia has sought to develop more effective ways of projecting power in the “near abroad,” the non-Russian nations that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has tried to upgrade its military, giving priority to its special forces, airborne and naval infantry — “rapid reaction” abilities that were “road tested” in Crimea, according to Roger McDermott, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
The speedy success that Russia had in Crimea does not mean that the overall quality of the Russian Army, made up mainly of conscripts and no match for the high-tech American military, has been transformed.
“The operation reveals very little about the current condition of the Russian armed forces,” said Mr. McDermott. “Its real strength lay in covert action combined with sound intelligence concerning the weakness of the Kiev government and their will to respond militarily.”
Still, Russia’s operations in Ukraine have been a swift meshing of hard and soft power. The Obama administration, which once held out hope that Mr. Putin would seek an “off ramp” from the pursuit of Crimea, has repeatedly been forced to play catch-up after the Kremlin changed what was happening on the ground.
“It is much more sophisticated, and it reflects the evolution of the Russian military and of Russian training and thinking about operations and strategy over the years,” said Stephen J. Blank, a former expert on the Russian military at the United States Army War College who is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council.
For its intervention in Crimea, the Russians used a so-called snap military exercise to distract attention and hide their preparations. Then specially trained troops, without identifying patches, moved quickly to secure key installations. Once the operation was underway, the Russian force cut telephone cables, jammed communications and used cyberwarfare to cut off the Ukrainian military forces on the peninsula.
“They disconnected the Ukrainian forces in Crimea from their command and control,” the NATO commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, said in a recent interview.
As it cemented control, the Kremlin has employed an unrelenting media campaign to reinforce its narrative that a Russian-abetted intervention had been needed to rescue the Russian-speaking population from right-wing extremists and chaos.
No sooner had the Obama administration demanded that Russia pull back from Crimea than the Kremlin raised the stakes by massing about 40,000 troops near Ukraine’s eastern frontier.
Soon, the Russians were sending small, well-equipped teams across the Ukrainian border to seize government buildings that could be turned over to sympathizers and local militias, American officials said. Police stations and Interior Ministry buildings, which stored arms that could be turned over to local supporters, were targeted.
“Because they have some local support they can keep leveraging a very small cadre of very good fighters and move forward,” said Daniel Goure, an expert on the Russian military at the Lexington Institute, a policy research group.
While the Kremlin retains the option of mounting a large-scale intervention in eastern Ukraine, the immediate purposes of the air and ground forces massed near Ukraine appears to be to deter the Ukrainian military from cracking down in the east and to dissuade the United States from providing substantial military support.
The Kremlin has used its military deployment to buttress its diplomatic strategy of insisting on an extensive degree of federalism in Ukraine, one in which the eastern provinces would be largely autonomous and under Moscow’s influence.
And as Russians have flexed their muscles, the White House appears to have refocused its demands. Crimea barely figured in the talks in Geneva that involved Mr. Kerry and his counterparts from Russia, Ukraine and the European Union.
The Obama administration’s urgent goal is to persuade the Kremlin to relinquish control over the government buildings in eastern Ukraine that the American officials insist have been held by small teams of Russian troops or pro-Russian separatists under Moscow’s influence. Despite the focus on the combustible situation in eastern Ukraine, the joint statement the diplomats issued in Geneva did not even mention the presence of Russia’s 40,000 troops near the border, which President Obamahas urged be withdrawn.
Military experts say that the sort of strategy the Kremlin has employed in Ukraine is likely to work best in areas in which there are pockets of ethnic Russians to provide local support. The strategy is also easier to carry out if it is done close to Russian territory, where a large and intimidating force can be assembled and the Russian military can easily supply special forces.
“It can be used in the whole former Soviet space,” said Chris Donnelly, a former top adviser at NATO, who added that Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Central Asia states were “very vulnerable.”
“The Baltic States are much less vulnerable, but there will still be pressure on them and there will on Poland and Central Europe,” Mr. Donnelly added.
Admiral Stavridis agreed that Russia’s strategy would be most effective when employed against a nation with a large number of sympathizers. But he said that Russia’s deft use of cyberwarfare, special forces and conventional troops was a development that NATO needed to study and factor into its planning.
“In all of those areas they have raised their game, and they have integrated them quite capably,” he said. “And I think that has utility no matter where you are operating in the world.”
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The White House has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that he has days, not weeks, to rein in pro-Kremlin insurgents occupying government buildings in at least 10 cities in eastern Ukraine, in accordance with an agreement hammered out in Geneva last week, or face harsher sanctions.
“If there is not progress within days, we remain prepared, along with our European and G-7 partners, to impose additional costs on Russia for its destabilizing actions,” said White House press secretary Jay Carney during a briefing in Washington on Monday.
During a question-and-answer session on Twitter, U.S. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki appeared to up the ante when she conceded that the U.S. government would consider levying further sanctions against the Russian leadership, including measures targeting Putin personally, if efforts to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine failed.
“Yes. [Important] to lay out consequences. U.S. able to sanction people, companies, and sectors. Goal not sanctions. Goal de-escalation,” tweeted Psaki. “Range of officials under consideration. Plenty to sanction before we would discuss President #Putin.”
According to the deal reached in Switzerland on Friday between the U.S., Russia, the E.U. and Ukraine, “all illegal armed groups must be disarmed, all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners.”
In the four days since, pro-Russian forces have shown few signs of acknowledging the Geneva agreement.
While many of the protesters camped out at government buildings throughout eastern Ukraine are locals, analysts and the U.S. government increasingly agree they are being supported by Russian special forces.
The White House and State Department comments were delivered as Vice President Joe Biden landed in Kiev on Monday. He met with Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov on Tuesday to discuss economic and technical assistance amid the ongoing crisis sparked by last month’s occupation and annexation of Crimea.
In Moscow on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed the use of ultimatums by U.S. officials and accused Washington of colluding with fascist elements in Ukraine.
“Before giving us ultimatums, demanding that we fulfill demands within two or three days with the threat of sanctions, we would urgently call on our American partners to fully accept responsibility for those who they brought to power,” said Lavrov, according to Russia Today.
Tensions in eastern Ukraine remain high in the wake of a deadly shoot-out in Slavyansk on Sunday night between progovernment and separatist forces. Reports also surfaced that separatist groups had detained at least three foreign journalists in the city on Monday.
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An agreement to ease tensions in Ukraine showed signs of crumbling as the U.S. and Russia traded blame as Vice President Joe Biden meets government leaders in the Black Sea country.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday “there will be consequences” if Russia fails to act “over the next pivotal days” to restrain pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine, spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in Washington. In Moscow, Lavrov called on the U.S. to hold Ukraine’s government accountable for curbing what Russia portrays as right-wing militias.
Pro-Russian forces who seized buildings in at least 10 eastern Ukrainian cities have said they are not bound by the deal reached by Ukraine, the European Union, the U.S. and Russia in Geneva on April 17. The government in Kiev accuses Russian President Vladimir Putin of stirring the unrest and exploiting the situation to prepare a potential invasion.
“As of today, the Russian side has shown no signal that it is ready to implement the Geneva accords,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said late yesterday in an e-mailed statement. “Illegal armed groups controlled by Russia continue to destabilize the situation in eastern Ukraine, preparing the ground for another stage of Russian military aggression.”
Sanctions Approach
Biden will offer U.S. support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and economy in today’s visit, according to an Obama administration official who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity. While the U.S. won’t unveil new sanctions while Biden is on this trip, the official said President Barack Obama’s administration hasn’t seen progress on the accord. A decision will be made in a matter of days.
The crisis has hit both Russian and Ukrainian markets. Russia’s Micex Index index fell 0.6 percent at 10:17 a.m. in Moscow, taking the year-to-date decline to 11 percent. The Russian currency was 0.3 percent higher against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros to 41.7697.
Biden met Ukrainian acting President Oleksandr Turchynov and was later set to speak in what the Obama administration official described as a symbolic show of solidarity with Ukraine ahead of a May 25 presidential election.
Technical Assistance
Biden will unveil a package of technical assistance to Ukraine in implementing energy and economic reforms, said the official. The vice president will also continue talks on additional non-lethal security aid, the official said.
“The interim Ukrainian government needs to be reassured that the U.S. will be present in the region for the long haul, not just in the heat of the crisis,” said Heather Conley, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The U.S. has threatened further penalties against Russian interests, including measures targeting the banking and energy industries, unless progress is made in easing the crisis sparked by Russia’s annexation of Crimea last month.
Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said yesterday the U.S. “will move to additional sanctions,” including some on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “cronies” and their companies if pro-Russian forces don’t disarm and give up the buildings they’ve seized.
In an interview aired on MSNBC, Rhodes signaled that any expansion of sanctions would be measured, with penalties aimed at entire sectors “kept in reserve for a more dramatic escalation by the Russians.” He said the administration is seeking “to bring along” European nations that have more extensive energy and trade ties with Russia than the U.S. does.
Resistant Separatists
U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt said it will take “days, not weeks” to determine whether Russia is complying with the Geneva agreement.
Russia’s Lavrov called on the U.S. to avoid threats of sanctions, while brushing off accusations that Russian forces are involved in attacks in Ukraine. Russia is receiving increasing requests to intervene in eastern Ukraine to protect the Russian-speaking population, he said yesterday in Moscow.
Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, who leads pro-Russian forces in Slovyansk in eastern Ukraine told reporters yesterday that “the things that were agreed on in Geneva were agreed on without us taking part.”
“We don’t have any relation to the things that were said in Geneva,” Ponomaryov said. “We are not aggressors, we are on our own land.”
Roadblock Killings
At least three “activists” were shot dead at a roadblock in Slovyansk over the weekend, Ukraine’sInterior Ministry said. The clash wounded three others, the ministry said.
Ukraine’s Security Service said saboteurs carried out the assault, while Lavrov yesterday blamed supporters of the government in Kiev.
“This is a crime carried out by those who want to abort the implementation of the Geneva agreement,” Lavrov said. “Everything points to the fact that the Kiev authorities either don’t want to or can’t control the extremists.”
Russia’s Foreign Ministry blamed the Ukrainian nationalist group Pravyi Sektor for the attack, which Pravyi Sektor denied in a statement. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry reiterated in its statement there were no evidenced that Pravyi Sektor was involved.
To contact the reporters on this story: Julianna Goldman in Kiev at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net; Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net; Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev atdkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James M. Gomez at jagomez@bloomberg.net; John Walcott at jwalcott9@bloomberg.net; Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net; Steven Komarow atskomarow1@bloomberg.net Michael Winfrey
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U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has told Ukrainian leaders that the United States will stand with them in the face of what he called "humiliating threats."
Biden is in Kyiv to meet with acting President Oleksandr Turchynov and interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the tension in eastern Ukraine shows no sign of cooling off.
Biden said the new Ukrainian government has an opportunity to create a united country, but warned the Ukrainians that they first must fight what he called the "cancer of corruption."
Biden also said the United States is ready to help Ukraine become energy independent and not have to rely on Russian natural gas.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for a deadly shooting at a checkpoint in the pro-Russian city of Slovyansk, shattering an Easter truce. Three people were killed.
The U.S. State Department has released photographs it says shows Russian special forces in eastern Ukraine. It says Ukrainian diplomats gave U.S. officials the pictures.
Russia has denied having any soldiers in Ukraine. It says all the pro-Russian separatists are locals.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has urged Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to take concrete steps to ease tensions in eastern Ukraine, including publicly calling on pro-Russian separatists to vacate Ukrainian government buildings they are holding in a number of cites.
The Kremlin says Lavrov told Kerry to influence Kyiv not to let "hotheads" provoke a bloody conflict.
Lavrov said Monday Ukraine is "crudely" violating last week's Geneva agreement calling on all armed illegal groups in the east to disarm and leave. The agreement also calls for a mission by European monitors.
So far, pro-Russian demonstrators have so far showed no sign of backing down.
The pro-Russians are demanding the right to hold referendums on splitting with Ukraine and joining with Russia. A vote last month in Crimea led to the Russian annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula.
Biden is in Kyiv to meet with acting President Oleksandr Turchynov and interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the tension in eastern Ukraine shows no sign of cooling off.
Biden said the new Ukrainian government has an opportunity to create a united country, but warned the Ukrainians that they first must fight what he called the "cancer of corruption."
Biden also said the United States is ready to help Ukraine become energy independent and not have to rely on Russian natural gas.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for a deadly shooting at a checkpoint in the pro-Russian city of Slovyansk, shattering an Easter truce. Three people were killed.
The U.S. State Department has released photographs it says shows Russian special forces in eastern Ukraine. It says Ukrainian diplomats gave U.S. officials the pictures.
Russia has denied having any soldiers in Ukraine. It says all the pro-Russian separatists are locals.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has urged Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to take concrete steps to ease tensions in eastern Ukraine, including publicly calling on pro-Russian separatists to vacate Ukrainian government buildings they are holding in a number of cites.
The Kremlin says Lavrov told Kerry to influence Kyiv not to let "hotheads" provoke a bloody conflict.
Lavrov said Monday Ukraine is "crudely" violating last week's Geneva agreement calling on all armed illegal groups in the east to disarm and leave. The agreement also calls for a mission by European monitors.
So far, pro-Russian demonstrators have so far showed no sign of backing down.
The pro-Russians are demanding the right to hold referendums on splitting with Ukraine and joining with Russia. A vote last month in Crimea led to the Russian annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula.
KIEV, Ukraine — In a display of Washington’s support for the interim authorities here, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. signaled on Tuesday that the United States was ready to support them in securing a unified Ukraine but urged the country’s leadership to battle “the cancer of corruption.”
Mr. Biden’s remarks, during a visit designed to show high-level backing from the United States, came a day after Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, accused the government in Kiev of flagrantly violating the international accord reached last week seeking to defuse the crisis in eastern Ukraine. Mr. Lavrov’s remarks were taken as a sign that Russia may be further preparing the groundwork for a military intervention.
The Kremlin regards the interim authorities as a product of a Western-backed coup that seized power in late February after months of protests.
Mr. Biden met on Tuesday with the Ukrainian speaker of Parliament and the acting president, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, and scheduled meetings with other officials. He will leave late Tuesday for Washington, a day after he arrived.
According to news reports, Mr. Biden told Ukrainian leaders that they had an opportunity to generate a united Ukraine, and that the United States stood ready to help end their dependence on Russian energy supplies, although the process would take time.
He said that Kiev faced “humiliating threats” and daunting problems and, according to Reuters, described the presidential election scheduled for May 25 as the most important in the country’s history.
Mr. Biden’s visit reflected the high stakes over the crisis in Ukraine after Russia’s annexation of Crimea last month. Thousands of Russian troops have massed on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia for weeks, and Mr. Lavrov’s accusations on Monday deepened Western concerns that the Kremlin was creating a basis to justify a similar move in eastern Ukraine. It has repeatedly denied having such intentions.
For its part, the Obama administration has warned that it will punish Moscow with increasingly harsh sanctions if it does not help to de-escalate the crisis in eastern Ukraine, where the West has accused the Kremlin of manufacturing a “masked” war.
Speaking in Moscow on Tuesday, Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia was quoted as saying in Parliament that Russia could minimize the impact of any sanctions imposed as a result of the Ukraine crisis and would insist on fair access to foreign markets for its energy exports.
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22 April 2014 Last updated at 06:08 ET
Mr Biden is visiting Kiev to show US backing for the new authorities
Pro-Russian militants are still holding official buildings in at least nine towns and cities in the Donetsk region
Flowers lie on the road near the site of Sunday's fatal shooting on the edge of Sloviansk
Photos released by the Ukrainian government purport to show a soldier, circled in red, in both Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and in a photo (centre) showing a group in the Russian Special Forces
Mr Biden is visiting Kiev to show US backing for the new authorities
US Vice-President Joe Biden has said the US stands with Ukraine's new leaders against "humiliating threats" - an apparent reference to Russia.
He was speaking during a meeting in parliament in Kiev, as part of a show of support for Kiev's new pro-Western government.
He also had talks with acting President Olexander Turchynov and interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
Meanwhile, funerals were due to take place for three men shot on Sunday.
The men were killed during a raid on a checkpoint manned by pro-Russian separatists near the town of Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine.
The circumstances remain unclear. The local separatists said the attack was carried out by ultra-nationalist Right Sector militants. Kiev called it a "provocation" staged by Russian special forces.
'Hotheads'
Mr Biden said Ukraine also faced "very daunting problems" and stressed the need for the new authorities to tackle corruption, which he described as "endemic in your system".
He told members of parliament: "The opportunity to generate a united Ukraine, getting it right is within your grasp."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the Kiev authorities on Monday of breaking last week's Geneva accord on resolving the Ukraine crisis.
Pro-Russian militants are still holding official buildings in at least nine towns and cities in the Donetsk regionFlowers lie on the road near the site of Sunday's fatal shooting on the edge of Sloviansk
He said the Kiev government - not recognised by Moscow - had not moved to disarm illegal groups, especially Right Sector.
The authorities in Kiev say they were surprised by Mr Lavrov's remarks and blame Russia for the instability.
A phone conversation between the US secretary of state and Russia's foreign minister earlier led to both sides blaming the other over the crisis.
In a phone call, Mr Lavrov urged US Secretary of State John Kerry "to influence Kiev, to prevent hotheads there from provoking a bloody conflict," according to the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, the US state department said Mr Kerry "urged Russia to take concrete steps to help implement the Geneva agreement, including publicly calling on separatists to vacate illegal buildings and checkpoints".
Correspondents say the US has drawn up plans for further economic sanctions should Russia fail to make good on its Geneva commitments, our correspondent adds.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told the Russian parliament on Tuesday that Russia would be able to "minimise the consequences" of any further sanctions.
Appeals for unity
The 17 April Geneva accord was agreed at talks between Russia, Ukraine, the EU and US. It demanded an immediate end to violence in eastern Ukraine and called on illegal armed groups to surrender their weapons and leave official buildings.
Sergei Lavrov: "All signs show that Kiev can't, and maybe doesn't want to, control the extremists who continue to call the shots"
Pro-Russian militants are still holding official buildings in at least nine towns and cities in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
The interim authorities in Kiev said they had suspended operations against pro-Russian militants over Easter, and appealed for national unity.
They promised to meet some of the demands of pro-Russian protesters, which include the decentralisation of power and guarantees for the status of the Russian language.
Technical assistance
The Ukrainian government has released photos that it says show Russian soldiers among militants holding official buildings in eastern Ukraine.
The photos appeared to identify Russian soldiers, and show similarly equipped and armed fighters in different cities in eastern Ukraine.
There was no immediate response to the pictures from the Russian government.
The pictures were handed to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe anddistributed by the US State Department.
Photos released by the Ukrainian government purport to show a soldier, circled in red, in both Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and in a photo (centre) showing a group in the Russian Special Forces
Mr Biden is expected to announce technical support to the Kiev government, including economic and energy-related assistance.
The White House said President Barack Obama agreed Mr Biden should make the two-day visit to Ukraine's capital to send a high-level signal of support for the reform efforts of Kiev's pro-Western government.
The elections on 25 May are seen as a crucial step in leading Ukraine out of the country's deepest political crisis since its independence in 1991.
Ukraine has been in turmoil since last November, when Kiev was gripped by protests against President Viktor Yanukovych over his rejection of an economic pact with the EU. He was toppled in February and fled to Russia.
Russia then annexed Crimea following a regional referendum that approved joining the Russian federation. The annexation provoked international outrage.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday submitted a bill to parliament to establish a gambling zone in Crimea.
The president approved a law making it easier for people in former Soviet republics to apply for Russian citizenship.
He also signed a decree to rehabilitate Crimea's Muslim Tatars and other ethnic minorities who suffered during the rule of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.
However, on Tuesday the Tatar assembly said the leader of the community Mustafa Dzhemilev, had been banned by Russia from returning to the annexed territory for five years.
Mr Dzhemilev was reportedly informed of the ban by Russian border guards as he crossed from Crimea to mainland Ukraine.
The 300,000-strong Tatar community - which makes up 15% of Crimea's population - opposed the peninsula's incorporation into Russia last month.
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