The U.S. State Department has confirmed that Aleksandr Bortnikov, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), will be part of a Russian delegation at the Obama administration's antiextremism conference in Washington.
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FSB Head To Attend Obama Antiextremism Summitby noreply@rferl.org (RFE/RL)
The U.S. State Department has confirmed that Aleksandr Bortnikov, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), will be part of a Russian delegation at the Obama administration's antiextremism conference in Washington.
CAESAREA, Israel (AP) -- Israel on Wednesday unveiled the largest collection of medieval gold coins ever found in the country, accidentally discovered by amateur divers and dating back about a thousand years....
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Pro-Russian rebels near the flashpoint town of Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine were seen firing grad multiple rocket launchers, as Ukrainian soldiers retreated on foot and by truck from the battlegro...
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From: AFP news agency
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President Barack Obama said the global community must take steps to counter the recruiting efforts of violent extremist groups that commit acts of terrorism in the name of religion.
MOSCOW -- When pragmatic negotiators in Minsk left two days free before the start of the cease-fire in Ukraine, both sides exploited that opportunity to continue the fighting. Pro-Russian separatists launched an all-out attack on Debaltseve in an attempt to force the Ukrainian army troops encircled there to lay down their arms.
And as if in retaliation, the Ukrainian army continued shelling residential areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Most observers predict that the relative calm that dawned on Sunday will not mark the start of a wider peace. Nor will it become something akin to the Dayton Accords that ended the Bosnian War and the breakup of Yugoslavia. How might the situation develop now?
The new Minsk agreement includes too many "land mines" to hope for its ultimate success. Implementing the road map spelled out in Minsk will largely depend on timely action by the Ukrainian parliament, a body locked in tumultuous inter-factional rivalries that has already failed to uphold previous agreements.
Ukraine's entire ruling class must rally around Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in order to carry out the points he was compelled to agree to in Minsk. However, several prominent Ukrainian politicians disavowed the Minsk agreement almost the very next day.
Too many uncertainties are involved. For example, Kiev still refuses any direct contact with representatives of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, referring to them as "terrorists."
However, the success of any elections held in these special regions, constitutional reform, the restoration of social services in the Donbass and related questions depend on such contact. In addition, the Minsk agreement stipulates that Kiev must first meet a number of conditions before it can get back control of about 400 kilometers of the Ukrainian-Russian border -- an area that Kiev politicians call the "window of war" -- by the end of 2015.
It is also a mistake to exaggerate the "obedience" of the separatists, all the more because Kiev shows no sign of ever granting them unconditional and complete amnesty. Many observers argue that when Igor Plotnitsky and Alexander Zakharchenko -- leaders of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk Republics, respectively -- initially refused to sign the Minsk agreement, it was part of a charade that Putin had orchestrated to make it appear that he had forced them to the table.
That might be true, but in either case, those men lead upward of 25,000 to 30,000 separatists who have been to war, bled, lost comrades in battle and who are filled with hatred for the enemy. And now, just like that, they are supposed to "surrender" and retreat, to halt the offensive they began in January when they were just "five minutes away" from defeating approximately the same number of Ukrainian government soldiers near Debaltseve as they overwhelmed last summer near Ilovaisk.
It might prove no easier to rein in those separatists than it is for Kiev to silence the ultra-nationalists who call for a continuation of the war.
Maintaining a cease-fire is always most difficult when the conflict involves not a confrontation between regular armies, but a battle between field commanders representing a variety of militias -- including the numerous semi-guerrilla units fighting on the side of Kiev -- in what would in this case be considered a civil war if not for the unofficial involvement of, at the very least, Russian military equipment and "advisers."
In any case, both sides can now observe at least a temporary truce. Given all the land mines in the Minsk agreement, it would be lucky if it lasted until summer. By that time the roads will dry out, the armies can replenish their ranks with reinforcements and resume their fighting.
In a worst-case scenario, the warring parties will break the cease-fire early on, once they begin withdrawing their heavy weapons. In the absence of a demarcation zone with peacekeepers, it is unlikely that anyone can ensure full compliance on this point, but the most important thing is that both sides stop shelling each other.
The main difference between the current Minsk agreement and the one reached in September is supposedly that now the two new powerful players, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, will put pressure on Kiev to comply with every single point.
That is partly true, but so is the fact that Europe is slowly but surely growing tired of Ukraine. Just how deep that frustration becomes will largely depend on how effectively Ukraine uses promised financial assistance to make reforms -- $17 billion from the International Monetary Fund, European Union and other sources slated to arrive next month, and another $40 billion over the next four years.
So far, Kiev has done nothing to revive its comatose economy. And because that depends on concerted action by Ukraine's deeply divided ruling class, without a "third Maidan" to push them into action, that part of the equation looks just as doubtful as compliance with the Minsk agreement.
But there is another land mine that is potentially more powerful than all of the others combined -- the fact that the United States was not directly involved in any way with the settlement negotiated in Minsk. And without Washington's active and effective participation, it is impossible to achieve anything like the Dayton Accords for Ukraine.
This is not only because Poroshenko keeps his eye on the United States in everything he does, or even because the IMF assistance cannot go through without official U.S. approval, but also because Washington continues to view Ukraine as a stage for countering Putin, whom it believes wants to change the global rules of the game and who has created a dangerous precedent as a sort of European Hugo Chavez and Ayatollah Khomeini combined.
Russian-U.S. relations have now sunk almost to the point that neither side even wants to shake hands with the other, or, more importantly, discuss anything of substance -- including the political and military issues that were always on the table, even when economic cooperation was lacking.
Of course, as a cautious and somewhat indecisive leader, U.S. President Barack Obama will not go looking for trouble, but others in Washington are perfectly willing to step into the fray. For now, the United States is content to sit and wait and to give the initiative to the Europeans, who are unenthusiastic about the wisdom and viability of delivering Western weapons to Ukraine.
But the less the United States is constructively involved and committed to the process of reaching a settlement, the less likely it is that a lasting peace will emerge, that the points of the Minsk agreement will get implemented and that Kiev will fulfill its obligations.
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ASSOCIATED PRESS
- In this Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015 pool photo, Ukrainian parliament lawmaker and leader of Ukraine's Radical Party Oleh Lyashko, second left, greets Ukrainian soldiers while visiting their position near the town of Volnovakha, in eastern Ukraine. (AP Photo/Osman Karimov, Pool)
- A man walks by a burned car and a piece of exploded Grad missile, outside an apartment building in Vostochniy district of Mariupol, Eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
- People examine their burned cars, parked outside an apartment building in Vostochniy district of Mariupol, Eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015.(AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
- A piece of an exploded Grad missile is photographed outside an apartment building in Vostochniy, district of Mariupol, Eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
- A man tries to remove pieces of broken glass from a window in a school damaged by a Grad missile in Vostochniy district of Mariupol, Eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
- Alexandr Atorvin, foreground, speaks to his visiting relatives in a hospital after being injured during an attack on Saturday, in Mariupol, Eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
- Local residents look at a burned car outside an apartment building in Vostochniy district of Mariupol, Eastern Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
- Volunteers carry humanitarian aid after Saturday's attacks, in Mariupol, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
- A woman resident passes by a burning house in Mariupol, Ukraine, Saturday, Jan. 24, 2015. (AP Photo/Sergey Vaganov)
- An officer of the Russian riot police force OMON stands guard outside the offices of Crimean Tatar TV channel ATR in Simferopol on January 26, 2015. (MAX VETROV/AFP/Getty Images)
- Passengers killed when a trolley bus was damaged by a mortar shell are seen in interior of the bus and outside, left, in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2015. (AP Photo/Igor Ivanov)
- A Russian backed separatist rebel lies on the ground under shelling in the Kievsky district, 3 km from the Airport, in Donetsk, Ukraine, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2015.(AP Photo/Manu Brabo)
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In this Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015 pool photo, Ukrainian parliament lawmaker and leader of Ukraine's Radical Party Oleh Lyashko, second left, greets Ukrainian soldiers while visiting their position near the town of Volnovakha, in eastern Ukraine. (AP Photo/Osman Karimov, Pool)
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Published: Thursday February 19, 2015 MYT 2:15:02 AM
Updated: Thursday February 19, 2015 MYT 2:15:03 AM
Updated: Thursday February 19, 2015 MYT 2:15:03 AM
Putin calls West's bluff over Ukraine peace deal
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MOSCOW (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin has called Europe's bluff over east Ukraine as Russia-backed separatists seize a strategic town in defiance of a ceasefire brokered by France and Germany.
The attack on Debaltseve by rebels loyal to the Russian president amounts to a test of the West's resolve to stand up to him - at the risk of an escalation of the conflict.
Allowing the rebels to capture the rail hub without a strong response to what the West calls a clear violation of the peace deal agreed on Feb. 12 could look like appeasement of Putin.
But declaring the agreement dead would be likely to force Europe to impose new economic sanctions on Russia and increase pressure on U.S. President Barack Obama to give Kiev lethal weapons, a move that might intensify the fighting.
Putin's readiness to take big gambles, and to use the military option if necessary, puts him in the driving seat.
"There is the notion that the West goes to the negotiating table and tries pivoting a little in one direction or the other, but the Russians are willing to completely flip the chessboard over," said Matthew Rojansky, a Russia expert at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande put their reputations on the line by brokering the peace deal reached at all-night talks in the Belarussian capital Minsk on Feb. 12.
But despite watching while the rebels disavowed the ceasefire to advance on encircled Ukrainian troops, Berlin, Paris and Washington are not rushing into a response, wary of opening a dangerous new phase of a conflict that has killed more than 5,000 people in the last 10 months.
European Union leaders have condemned Moscow and the rebels and threatened "appropriate action", but also said it is too soon to write off the peace deal. The United States is "gravely concerned" but wants to give diplomacy more time.
The rebels announced hours after the ceasefire took effect that they did not believe it applied to the town of Debaltseve, their main military objective. Now that the town appears to have fallen, they might begin observing the truce.
The West appears to be giving Putin the benefit of the doubt - hoping he will wind down fighting after the town is taken. The town, on a railway and road junction, links the two Russian-speaking regions of east Ukraine that the rebels hold and makes it far easier to defend their territory.
There also appears to be hope in the West that Putin, who denies accusations by Kiev and the West that Russia has sent soldiers and weapons to help the separatists, has too much at stake to risk further escalation of the conflict.
"To some extent Vladimir Putin has also put his reputation on the line," said Alexander Ivakhnik of Moscow's Centre of Political Technologies, suggesting Putin would face tough choices as events unfold and financial problems grow in Russia.
"Russia has already lost hundreds of billions of dollars as a result of an intervention in the Donbass conflict that is obvious to the world. Can it afford to lose hundreds of billions more, given the growing risk of renewed military escalation?"
PUTIN STANDS FIRM
Putin showed no sign of backing down over Ukraine on Tuesday evening, when he told Kiev's pro-Western leaders they should let their soldiers trapped in Debaltseve surrender to save their lives.
He showed no sign of trying to persuade rebel leaders to halt the offensive on Debaltseve, and avoided criticising it.
His ultimate goals remain unclear but he is widely believed to want to ensure Ukraine never joins NATO and that Moscow can maintain influence in eastern parts of the former Soviet republic indefinitely by sponsoring a "frozen conflict".
Russia has deployed similar tactics, although on smaller scale, in Georgia and Moldova, where its troops have occupied and protected breakaway regions since the 1990s.
But it is not clear that Putin has an exit strategy that would end his confrontation with the West. Any hint of a concession could be interpreted in Russia as weakness and damage his political standing at home, boosted by the seizure and annexation of Crimea from Ukraine almost a year ago.
At peace talks in Minsk last week, Putin argued that Debaltseve was behind the frontline in east Ukraine - and therefore rebel territory - but Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko did not accept this, diplomats said.
In return for backing down on this point, Putin secured an agreement that the ceasefire should start 60 hours after the deal was reached rather than the 48 hours that had been planned, allowing the rebels an additional 12 hours to take Debaltseve.
In the end, the rebels did not manage to capture the town before the ceasefire took effect. Instead, they declared that the truce did not apply to Debaltseve and launched an all-out assault. Putin appears to have gambled that the West would stand by.
Western leaders' reaction seems to have been muted because they expected problems over Debaltseve. Moscow also won time by drafting a resolution adopted by the U.N. Security Council calling on all parties to stop fighting.
"We believe the Minsk process is under strain, it has perhaps been damaged, but we still believe it makes sense to continue working," said Merkel's spokesman, Steffen Seibert, describing the U.N. statement as a step in the right direction.
A big unknown in Putin's gamble is whether Obama decides to send Kiev lethal arms, a move Washington has been debating publicly for weeks.
European countries say sending U.S. weapons would backfire by escalating the conflict without giving Kiev enough fire power to win it. But many in the United States, including senior figures in Obama's administration as well as some of its critics, say Putin needs to be forced to pay a higher price. Obama says he has not made up his mind.
Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham evoked the appeasement of Hitler before World War Two, saying on Tuesday that Merkel and Hollande, with Obama's support, were "legitimising the dismemberment of a sovereign nation in Europe for the first time in seven decades".
Referring to the debate over arms for Kiev, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said "the same options that were on the table a week ago or two weeks ago remain on the table."
(Additional reporting by Noah Barkin, Madeline Chambers, Andreas Rinke and Sabine Siebold in Berlin and Matt Spetalnick in Washington; Editing by Peter Graff)
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Opinion: Diplomacy has reached its limits
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