Russia’s Economy Shows no Sign of Recovery
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MOSCOW—Russia’s troubled economy showed no sign of recovery in July as falling oil prices continued to hurt the commodity-dependent country, data showed on Wednesday.
Two key economic drivers, retail sales and capital investment, continued to decline in July, putting more pressure on the central bank to cut rates to revive the tanking economy. The central bank faces a difficult decision at its meeting next month over whether to hold rates to support the ruble.
Battered by the fall in the price of oil, Russia’s key export, the ruble lost more than 13% of its valueagainst the dollar over the past month, sliding to its weakest level since February. The Kremlin and the Bank of Russia stepped in with a verbal intervention, claiming that authorities were doing all they could to cap the free fall, but that provided little support for the currency.
The central bank’s tool kit to prop up the ruble is limited. Kremlin aide Andrei Belousov said this week that the only instrument it still possesses to steer the currency is its key rate. Mr. Belousov added that Moscow does not have sufficient reserves to artificially support the ruble. Reserves have fallen to $360 billion from nearly $540 billion two years ago.
Tom Levinson, chief FX strategist at Sberbank CIB in Moscow, said that after slashing rates five times since early 2015, the Bank of Russia may pause at the September 11 meeting. It may want to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates later in September, he said.
Other analysts say that a pause in the monetary easing-cycle is likely because the economy needs time to feel the impact of earlier rate cuts.
“Economic growth indicators signal extended recession,” Barclays said in a research note.
So far, the economic pattern in Russia has changed little compared with the second quarter. Retail sales in Russia, which rely on the main growth driver of consumer demand, fell 9.2% on the year in July after growing by 1.6% in the same month a year ago. In the first seven months of 2015, retail sales declined by 8.1%, data from the Federal Statistics Service showed on Wednesday.
Data also showed that gross domestic product shrank by 3.4% in the first half of 2015. Earlier this month, data showed that economic contraction deepened to 4.6% in the second quarter from 2.2% in the first three months of the year.
The central bank said on Wednesday that Russia’s economic prospects look worse than they used to because potential output is limited by structural issues in the economy, which can not be addressed by monetary policy.
Underpinning the view that the recession will be prolonged, capital investment plunged 8.5% on the year in July after falling by 7.1% in the preceding month.
While the government still expects the economy to contract by as much as 3% this year, the Bank of Russia said last week that it will present a new set of economic forecasts on September 11. The revision is likely to paint a bleaker economic outlook, given that Brent crude prices are trading around $48 per barrel from levels of around $60 seen earlier this year.
The data also showed that real wages, or salaries adjusted for inflation, fell 8.2% in July compared with the same month a year ago after falling by 7.2% in June. Real disposable incomes declined by 2% in July.
Write to Andrey Ostroukh at andrey.ostroukh@wsj.com
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Analysts believe the relation between Russia and China is getting more intimate, which might disturb the United States, Russian media reported.
The Russian and the Chinese navies will have their largest-ever joint exercises called “Joint Sea 2015 II” on Aug. 28. The exercises are going to be conducted off the coast of Vladivostok and through the Sea of Japan. The military exercises will be carefully watched by Japan, a major U.S. ally in Asia.
The joint exercises will involve more than 20 ships, Washington Times reported adding that the operations had increased in “size and sophistications” in recent years. There have been five joint exercises held by China and Russia together over the last decade.
Pravda.ru refers to several experts, who believe that the intimacy between Russia and China was “a marriage of convenience.” Some other experts believe it could indicate “a feature of a new, post-Cold War geopolitical order.”
Russia is supplying modern S-400 surface-to-air missile system to China. According to the Russian news agency, this may “seriously aggravate the American military planning in the Asian-Pacific region.”
The agency added the U.S. would find the Russian-Chinese cooperation “ambiguous.”
“Driving the Russians into the arms of the Chinese...is strategic foolishness of the first order,” Pravda.ru quoted international relations theorist John Mearsheimer as saying.
According to the experts, U.S. authorities should give Russia and China some space instead of trying to break the partnership. The U.S. should encourage those powers to have more influence in each other’s backyard, experts said.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin joined a Russian navy team Tuesday, when he visited the Black Sea along the coast of the Crimean Peninsula in a small vessel.
Iraq's Economy Battered by Islamic State War, Low Oil Pricesby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
In business since the 1960s, Karim al-Aboudi's family has seen Iraq's economy boom with oil wealth and bust through wars and the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, but today marks the worst downturn he's seen in decades. Forced to fire 65 percent of his staff and close two of his six aluminum and glass factories, al-Aboudi's troubles mirror those facing business owners across Iraq. As the country battles the Islamic State group on the ground, it faces massive budget deficits brought on by the lowest global oil prices in six-and-a-half years. And while austerity cuts have helped Iraq fund its military effort against the extremists, it has slowed businesses like al-Aboudi's and construction firms that rely on government contracts. Taking a deep puff of a cigarette, 65-year-old al-Aboudi said he and others don't see it getting much better soon: "The manufacturers and merchants are now only drinking tea and reading newspapers.'' Since early 2014, Iraq has suffered a serious economic decline after the Shiite-led government in Baghdad started losing territory to the Sunni militants of the Islamic State group. Low oil prices exacerbated the decline, wreaking havoc on Iraq's national budget, of which oil revenue makes nearly 95 percent. As of July, Iraq's oil revenues stood at $31.5 billion, according to Oil Ministry figures, with an average daily export capacity less than a 3.3 million barrel quota set in this year's budget. Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region now sells oil independently from the central government. Iraq's $102.5 billion budget now runs a deficit of about $21.4 billion. Some $27 billion is earmarked for defense, but more could be needed. "For sure the situation in dire and needs quick alternatives,'' lawmaker Haitham al-Jaburi said. Iraq had a state-run economy under dictator Saddam Hussein, buoyed by its oil wealth. Back then, 1 Iraqi dinar was worth $3. But the economy began to suffer under economic sanctions after the 1991 Gulf War. By the time of the U.S.-led invasion, it was 3,000 dinars to $1. Today, it's about 1,166 dinars to $1. Annual inflation stands at about 2 percent. Like other businesses, al-Aboudi's flourished after Saddam's overthrow, buoyed by authorities suspending most tariffs and import duties and starting nationwide government-funded projects. But sectarian violence in 2006 and 2007 damaged the country's economy. Meanwhile, Iraq's national power grid supplies only a fraction of the country's needs, forcing residents and business to rely on diesel generators. Reeling from the Islamic State advance, Iraq's government now has stopped spending money on construction projects to fund its military. "Since the deterioration in security situation, the fall of Mosul and the austerity measures, the [government] business has dropped to zero,'' said al-Aboudi, whose business was 65 percent government-funded projects. Reacting the crisis, Iraq plans to issues bonds worth $7 billion - $5 billion in international bonds and $2 billion for domestic banks - to narrow the deficit. It introduced initiatives to impose new excise and consumption taxes. It also secured a $1.7 billion in loans from the World Bank and a $833 million loan with the International Monetary Fund. Iraq also revived a long-delayed plan to redenominate the Iraqi dinar by knocking three zeroes off the nominal value of its banknotes, said Ihsan Shamran al-Yassiri, the head of Iraq Central Bank Issuing and Vaults Department. The plan is set to be implemented by 2017 after restructuring dinar by issuing two large banknotes - a 50,000 dinar note before the end of this year and 100,000 banknote next year - and canceling small ones. This month, bond rating agency Fitch gave Iraq its first rating, calling it "B-'' with a stable outlook. The rating agency forecast a double-digit fiscal deficit for 2015 due to lower oil prices, higher military spending and war costs. "Iraq scores the worst of all Fitch-rated sovereigns on the composite World Bank governance indicator, reflecting not only insecurity and political instability but also corruption, government ineffectiveness and weak institutions,'' Fitch said. That doesn't surprise construction company owner Sahab Awad, who built a government housing project in Iraq's southern Maysan province, worth about $33.6 million. The government still owes him about $2.5 million for that, as well as millions of dollars more for a project his company had to abandon in the Islamic State-held city of Fallujah. "We sold whatever properties and projects we have and laid off about 90 percent of the employees and debts are still accumulated,'' said Awad, 73. "We had high ambitions of developing the country, but unfortunately those who run it are incompetent and lack a real vision.'' Despite hundreds of billions in oil revenues and international aid since the 2003, Iraqis still suffer from shabby public services and weak economy due to endemic corruption and poor financial management, as many senior appointments are determined by party patronage and sectarian loyalties. Fed up with the weak government, al-Aboudi joined thousands of Iraqis who have been protesting across the country. The protests forced the government to launch a plan to dismantle government posts, merge ministries, cut spending and fight corruption. Last week, parliament's approval for the plan gave al-Aboudi a rare dose of optimism despite Iraq's many challenges. "I'm optimistic ... and we will continue protesting until we have tangible reforms,'' he said.
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Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi postponed a planned visit to China due to security developments and the need to follow up on a wide-ranging reform drive, his office said August 18.
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В Европе начались крупнейшие учения НАТО со времен холодной войны
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The governor of Ukraine's Odesa region, former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, took part in police training exercises led by U.S. instructors in the Black Sea city on August 18. Saakashvili has played a highly public role since taking over as governor in May, mingling with locals and promising to make sweeping changes to stamp out corruption. (RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service)
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Four private banks with friendly ties with the Kremlin are emerging as big winners from Russia's economic crisis, helping out dollar-starved companies at a time when large state lenders are hampered by Western sanctions.
24 Years On, Russia has Not Moved beyond Putsch as Chief Means of Leadership Changeby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, August 19 – Two centuries ago, Madame de Stael observed that Russia was an autocracy mitigated by the occasional assassination. Now, 24 years to the day after the failed August 1991 coup that accelerated the demise of the Soviet Union, it is clear that Russia has not moved beyond the putsch as the chief means of leadership change.
Twenty-four years after that putsch, Dmitry Shagiakhmetov writes, a whole generation has grown up with doesn’t remember those events; and “a new generation of bosses has appeared in the Kremlin.” But despite that, the Russian opposition politician and commentator says, Russia has not managed to escape the vicious circle of dictatorship and putsches.
In a commentary on Kasparov.ru today, he rights that the circle is once again closing and “Russia is confidently heading toward its latest version” of the same kind of leadership change that the coup plotters in 1991 sought to impose, having like the Bourbons learned nothing from the mistake and stupidities of the past (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=55D358C88973A).
Both the Russian people and the Russian elites are trapped in this vicious circle, and both will have to work long and hard to escape it. So far, however, the people have deferred to the elites most of the time rather than insisting on genuine democracy and freedom and consequently the elites have little reason not to rule in the way that they do.
But such rule inevitably produces splits within the elite, and those divisions offer occasional opportunities for the population to break through. But all too often, the population settles back down in its place, and the elites settle back down in theirs, continuing the pattern of the past rather than breaking with it as some hope and others fear.
“The main lesson of all the Maidans, putsches, and revolutions is this,” Shagiakhmetov says. When the people wins a victory, “its leaders must not wrong away. They must not celebrate the victory.” Instead, they must “remember every day several simple demands which the public square made.”
“The authorities must be sane,” he says. “They must not flaunt their wealth if there are hungry people in the land.” Moreover, the authorities “must be subordinate to society and not forget their place.” That is impossible “without free media, without real courts subordinate only to the Law.”
And that means in the current context, he says, that Russia must “get rid not of Putin but Putinism,” the latest incarnation of the cycle of dictatorships and putsches. Otherwise, the commentator warns, “there will be yet another generation of dragons.”
Escaping that will be hard and require a lot of work, Shagiakhmetov says. People will make mistakes and have to correct them, and they will have to keep their eyes on the main goals and not be distracted by trifles, something that those in power are always only too happy to throw up as a way of maintaining their power.
After the August 1991 putsch, however, “this again did not happen” with Russians. “Perhaps it will happen in Ukraine. There are chances. But there is no other way forward except to try and try again. And only by so doing will it be possible to realize the dreams of a normal country.”
And “only then,” he concludes, “will all the victims and all the efforts be not in vain.”
Among the other comments on this anniversary, one is perhaps especially instructive because it focuses not on the elite divides of 1991 but on those of 1916. Again, on Kasparov.ru, Yevgeny Ikhlov argues that the arguments within the elites now resemble those which took place in the months before the 1917 revolutions (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=55D361293D54B).
The Moscow commentator makes his point by suggesting an exchange between “moderates” then and now and the “hardliners” again then and now.
The moderates said and say: “You idiots, you are provoking a revolution, ‘senseless and unlimited. You are destroying not only yourselves but the entire civilized stratum!”
The hardliners reply: “You cretins, you are rocking the boat by your play with populist pseudo-revelations and outrageous criticism! What are you playing at with all your childish talk about coats, watches and yachts?! You are destroying not only us but also yourselves, you ‘Russian Europeans,’ and you haven’t figures out that the people will take into account not only our palaces but your cottages!”
The moderates in turn respond that they only want those in power to behave in a less challenging fashion and ask the hardliners to take note of the fact that they “are trying not to repeat the errors of the intelligentsia of 1917 and 1989!”
To which the hardliners reply: “you babblers don’t understand that the entire legitimacy of the powers rests on the Putin myth ;” and that if it is undermined, everything will be swept away. “Our president has not gone made.” What he says about the situation in the country is the only thing that can be said: “only such séances of psychotherapy on television saved the country last fall from complete panic.”
Such exchanges of moderates and hardliners within the elite are entirely plausible, and they are yet another reason why 24 years after August 1991, Russia still is talking about the possibility of coups and has not found a way to survive without the occasional putsch or without the authoritarian regimes in between such events.
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Eighty endangered Amur leopards have been discovered in the first census in ten years
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Putin's Propaganda Works to Convince Unhappy Russians They’re the Exceptions, Kokh Saysby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, August 19 – “The chief secret of Russian propaganda” is its “main task,” Alfred Kokh says, and that is to convince Russians that they are as happy as it is possible to be under the circumstances, that they are beholden to the state for this well-being, and that if anyone is unhappy, he or she is an isolated anomaly.
According to the former Russian deputy prime minister and current commentator, “the task of totalitarian propaganda consists in convincing the individual in the correctness of the authorities and in the lack of alternatives.” Anyone processed in this way is thus “convinced that he is happy (nv.ua/opinion/koh/glavnyj-sekret-rossijskoj-propagandy-64787.html).
Anyone who despite that feels unhappy begins to convince himself that he is “an anomaly,” that his “personal misfortune” is a personal failing rather than part of the system as a whole. “In other words,” Kokh says, “the totalitarian individual if he feels himself unhappy clearly understands that his unhappiness is an exception” and that almost everyone else is happy.
And that conclusion leads such “unhappy” people even when they have good reason to be unhappy with the system to seek to join the majority and to pursue the resolution of their problems via the system rather than protesting against it. If only the tsar knew about the mistake in their cases, all would be corrected; and they too would be happy.
That attitude, the Russian commentator suggests, has the additional consequence of keeping them from organizing with others of like mind and experience and thus reducing the chance that those suffering from any particular ill will act in ways that will force the authorities to change course.
Kokh argues that “an individual in a free society represents the complete opposite.” “He is happy but is convinced that his happiness is the exception not the rule, that the people suffer and that the authorities are defective and ill-intentioned.” And because of the nature of the media in free societies, he does not recognize that the happy individual is the norm.
In such societies, he suggests, “the media focus on exposing precisely the negative and collecting and disseminating even the most minor mistakes of the authorities.” That is why, unlike in a totalitarian society, the ratings of leaders are never so high in a free society.
Indeed, Kokh argues in conclusion, this distinction is “the most important indicator of slavery or freedom.” And consequently, he notes with regret, “in Russia there are ever fewer people who feel their happiness is an exception, and ever more who consider their unhappiness precisely that.”
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Now On Android: IS Releases Russian Propaganda Appby support@pangea-cms.com (Joanna Paraszczuk)
Islamic State (IS) militants from the extremist group's Russian-speaking faction have released a propaganda app for Google's popular Android platform.
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 Коммерсантъ |
Тбилиси просит у Вашингтона «аргументы и планы против российской агрессии»
Коммерсантъ Глава Пентагона Эштон Картер в ходе встречи с министром обороны Грузии Тинатин Хидашели заверил ее, что Вашингтон намерен «усилить сотрудничество» с Грузией и помочь ей повысить обороноспособность «для адекватного ответа на региональные вызовы». У входа в здание ... Секретарь обороны США пообещал Грузии усиление помощи и поддержкиИА REGNUM США предоставят дополнительную оборонную помощь ГрузииУНИАН США окажут Грузии дополнительную оборонную помощьЛІГА.net apsny.ge -Civil Georgia -РИА Новости Все похожие статьи: 109 » |
The west may laugh at the Russian president’s submarine stunt, but his actions echo those of nationalist leaders in the 20s – and are received just as well at home
Vladimir Putin has a way of looking almost like a clown to the wider world while sending out exactly the message he wants to his audience in Russia. Both appearances – the so nearly comical figure abroad and the national hero at home – serve him well as he continues in a project whose ultimate aim we can only guess at. Or try not to, if we want to get any sleep.
The Russian president’s latest stunt casts him as a daring undersea adventurer in the bubble-like capsule of a bathyscaphe about to descend to an ancient shipwreck at the bottom of the Black Sea. It’s another pose that lends itself both to sensation and ridicule. Melodramatically, hostile westerners might see an absurd resemblance to a Bond villain. Putin’s love of hi-tech has all the boy’s toy bravado of a blockbuster spy movie. Where’s he going – his undersea lair?
‘Imagine if Nicola Sturgeon posed in a bathyscaphe in the North Sea to prove the antiquity of Scottish fishing rights.'
Continue reading...Is Moscow Likely to Face a Pan-Regional Fronde?by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, August 19 – Russia today does not face the kind of general disintegration that led to the end of the USSR, but it may lose the North Caucasus and several other republics along its southern borders, something that will cost it less than one percent of its territory and less than seven percent of its population, Vladislav Inozemtsev.
The notion that the country will fall apart the way the Soviet Union did, the Moscow analyst says, ignores economic and political realities – the integration of the existing regions in terms of production and distribution and both the levers Moscow has and the threat of foreign occupation (snob.ru/selected/entry/96635).
His analysis is a response to speculation that Russia is at risk of coming apart. (See, for example, nr2.ru/News/politics_and_society/Rezhim-uslovnogo-Girkina-razorvet-Rossiyu-v-klochya-104044.html and worldif.economist.com/article/2/what-if-russia-breaks-up-the-peril-beyond-putin, the latter of which Inozemtsev sites.
Most of his 3500-word article is devoted to explaining why the Russian Federation now is not like the USSR in 1991; but that makes what he says about a related threat that Inozemtsev says may prove even more significant: the emergence of a pan-regional fronde in which the regions impose on Moscow their conditions for remaining within the country.
The Moscow economist says there are three reasons for concluding that the Russian Federation is not under threat of disintegration. First, he says, “in contemporary Russia, there does not exist that national-religious basis for ‘the sovereignization’ of its component parts,” except along the southern border.
Second, he argues, “the disintegration of a country like Russia cannot bring economic benefits to either the Russian people as a whole or any of its potentially independent territories.” And third, in his view, “the disintegration of Russia … would be marked by the transfer of part of its present-day territory to the jurisdiction of foreign states.”
That in itself would “inflict significant harm to Russian national self-consciousness and become the basis for unpredictable forms and amount of Russian nationalism.” (Putin’s comments in occupied Crimea about Ukraine being under “foreign” rule are an example of this, although one Inozemtsev doesn’t mention in this essay.)
“Taking all these circumstances into consideration,” he says, he “cannot foresee the causes and occasions from ‘centrifugal’ forces in Russia now to become a dominant political trend.”
“With one exception,” he then adds; and that involves something that the authors of the Economist article do no consider, although it is potentially more attractive and likely than the others. “This variant,” Inozemtsev says, “could be called the scenario of ‘an anti-Moscow fronde.”
Historically, he points out, Russia came into existence “not as a federation of territories … but as a classical colonial power. From the late middle ages, Muscovia having freed itself from the protectorate of the Horde began to expand first by settlement and then by military colonies in the adjoining territories.”
Until the middle of the 20thcentury, it was able to pursue that policy, but “at the end of [that] century, imperial overstretch reached its limit, and the military colonies ... fell away. What remained were only those in which the colonizers formed a majority and secured the assimilation of local peoples,” something that supports Russia’s current borders.
But as the experience of many colonies elsewhere shows, anger at and opposition to the metropolitan center occurred even when “the population overwhelmingly consisted of people from the metropolitan country,” as happened in the case of the US. To be sure, the UK and the US were separated by an ocean, “but this can change the details, not the principle.”
If Russia enters into a prolonged period of economic decline and politican instability, Moscow as the center of power almost certainly will face demands from Russians that the government be accountable to them, both individually and collectively in the form of the regions and republics in which they live.
Such a demand will not entail one for “the separation of part of the state from Muscovy but rather the subordination of [the current center] to the will of the rest of the population of the country.” Those that have separated from the former empire” have experienced difficulties that these new demanders will seek to avoid.
“The Soviet Union fell apart,” Inozemtsev says, “because it lacked the strength to overcome its imperial nature. Russia will not repeat that path since now it is already not an empire, but a nation state daydreaming about empire. And thus the only real goal of Russian separatists would be not separation from Moscow but its subordination to their will.”
That would reflect a dawning understanding that Russia is not something finished as a project but rather that it must be structured to reflect the fact that it is “a complex country” and that “in its current borders, Russian represents a conglomeration of Muscovy and its colonies by settlement.”
The task ahead, Inosemtsev continues, lies “in the revival of self-consciousness and local identities of citizens iin various pars of this strange formation” so that those regions which produce the most will have more power and Moscow which produces very little will have significantly less.
To the extent that Russia moves in that direction, the Moscow economist argues, its course will not be like the disintegration of the USSR or Yugoslavia but rather more like “the path chosen 800 years ago by the English barons who forced the kind to sign the Magna Carta at Runnymede.”
“The transformation of Russia into a genuine federation, even with the right of exit for its component subjects and of Moscow into one of its largest” but least productive components represents, he argues in conclusion, “not the salvation of the country from disintegration … but a basis for development in which all Russians without exception have an interest.”
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 РБК |
Москва начала подготовку к встрече Путина с Обамой
РБК Сергей Лавров допустил, что, посещая Генассамблею ООН в Нью-Йорке, Владимир Путин встретится с Бараком Обамой. Подготовка к встрече уже началась. Это может быть первый личный контакт президентов с ноября прошлого года. Президент РФ Владимир Путин и президент США ... Лавров: Путин планирует участвовать в 70-й сессии Генассамблеи ООН и, возможно, встретится с ОбамойРосбалт.RU У Путина не исключают его встречи с Обамой в сентябреУкраинское национальное информагентство Сергей Лавров сообщил о готовности Владимира Путина встретиться с Бараком ОбамойКоммерсантъ Вести.Ru -Газета.Ru -Подробности Все похожие статьи: 140 » |
More Former Karimova Associates Arrested In Uzbekistanby support@pangea-cms.com (RFE/RL's Uzbek Service)
Authorities in Uzbekistan have arrested nine more individuals with current or former business ties to Gulnara Karimova, further widening the pall of corruption around the disgraced eldest daughter of Uzbek President Islam Karimov.
Wall Street Journal |
Russia's Economy Shows no Sign of Recovery
Wall Street Journal MOSCOW—Russia's troubled economy showed no sign of recovery in July as falling oil prices continued to hurt the commodity-dependent country, data showed on Wednesday. Two key economic drivers, retail sales and capital investment, continued to ... Russia Struggles at Debt Sale as Ruble Sinks on Crude Under $48Bloomberg all 8 news articles » |
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Yahoo News |
NATO warns pro-Russia rebels against more Ukraine land grabs
Yahoo News "Russia has a special responsibility to find a political solution," NATO acting spokeswoman Carmen Romero said in a statement. "Any attempt by the Russian-backed separatists to take over more of Ukraine's territory would be unacceptable to the ... NATO Is Unprepared for Conflict With RussiaThe Moscow Times (registration) US Plan to Move Military Vehicles to Hungary Anti-Russia ProvocationSputnik International VICE News Meets NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (Excerpt from 'The ...VICE News all 34 news articles » |
Russian FM: Putin Would Consider Meeting with Obama, if Invited by webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to a meeting with President Barack Obama when the Russian leader visits the United States to participate in the United Nations General Assembly next month, Russia's foreign minister said Wednesday. Speaking to reporters in Sevastopol, Crimea, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed that Putin will attend the 70th session of the U.N. General Assembly, which opens in New York on September 15. Lavrov said Putin could meet with President Obama if the U.S. side signals it wants a meeting. "We presume that our American colleagues are sending us signals that they want to continue to maintain contact," he said. "And if there is such a proposal on their part, I think our president will view it constructively." According to a provisional list of speakers the U.N. issued last month, Putin will address the General Assembly on September 28, the first days of its general debate. Wednesday was the second day of a visit by Putin and other top Russian officials to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula Russia annexed from Ukraine last year. Speaking in Sevastopol, home base of Russia's Black Sea fleet, Putin said "external forces" were threatening to destabilize the situation on the peninsula. "They speak about this openly in some capitals, about the need to carry out subversive activities; corresponding structures are formed, cadres are recruited and prepared for sabotage," the Russian president said. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called the visit by Putin and other top Russian officials to Crimea "a challenge to the civilized world."
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 УНИАН |
В НАТО напомнили о недопустимости захвата новых территорий на Украине ополченцами
Коммерсантъ Государства-союзники по Североатлантическому альянсу обсудили происходящее на Украине. Об этом сообщается в заявлении представителя НАТО, сделанном по результатам переговоров. Участники переговоров вновь напомнили о необходимости снизить уровень напряженности ... НАТО: Россия несет ответственность за мир на востоке УкраиныBBC Russian НАТО указало России на недопустимость захвата ополчением новых территорийРБК НАТО: Попытки поддерживаемых Россией сепаратистов захватить новые земли на Донбассе - неприемлемыУНИАН Утро.Ru -Взгляд -Зеркало недели Все похожие статьи: 17 » |
Rebels and government soldiers in Ukraine have both accused their respective commanders of lying about one of the most significant battles to erupt on the front line in months.
Birthright Citizenship Emerges as Republican Campaign Issueby webdesk@voanews.com (Ken Bredemeier)
Donald Trump, the leading 2016 U.S. Republican presidential contender, has ignited new consideration of an old idea: ending the country's nearly 150-year-old grant of citizenship to anyone born in the United States. The billionaire real estate mogul, who has soared to the top of surveys of Republican voters with calls to deport the country's 11 million illegal immigrants, says birthright citizenship "remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration." He says he wants to amend the U.S. Constitution to repeal the 14th Amendment clause that declares "all persons born or naturalized in the United States" are U.S. citizens. The Mexican government attacked Trump's anti-immigration proposals Wednesday, saying they "reflect prejudice, racism or plain ignorance.” "Anyone who understands the depth of the U.S.-Mexico relationship realizes that those proposals are not only prejudiced and absurd, but would be detrimental to the well-being of both societies," the Mexico’s Foreign Ministry said. Five months ahead of the first state-by-state contests to pick a Republican presidential nominee, Trump and his 16 rivals for the party’s nomination are all calling for tough measures to curb the flow of undocumented immigrants across the southern U.S. border with Mexico. But not all of them support Trump's call for ending birthright citizenship, including two of his key rivals, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, the son and brother of two U.S. presidents, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Bush called birthright citizenship "a constitutionally protected right." Rubio said, "I'm open to doing things that prevent people from coming to the U.S. to take advantage of the 14th Amendment, but I'm not in favor of repealing it." Other Republican contenders say they support Trump's stance. ‘Birth tourists’ The Center for Immigration Studies, which seeks to limit immigration to the United States, says that 30 of the world's 194 countries allow birthright citizenship, but that the United States and Canada are the only two advanced economies that do so. The group contends that foreign women entering the U.S. as "birth tourists" are annually giving birth to 36,000 babies so their children can become American citizens. An independent 2010 study by the Pew Hispanic Center estimated that 340,000 out of 4.3 million babies born in the U.S. in 2008 were the children of immigrants who had entered the country illegally, about eight percent of the total. Birthright citizenship in the U.S. dates to its founding days in the 18th century, when English common law was imported to the first American colonies. The issue of citizenship came to the forefront with an infamous 1857 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that birthright citizenship did not apply to the children of slaves. But after the country's Civil War in the 1860s, when anti-slavery northern states defeated a southern confederacy favoring slavery, the country's Constitution was amended to make it clear that all freed slaves were U.S. citizens. At the end of the 19th century, the Supreme Court further upheld that interpretation, ruling all children born in the U.S., except for those of diplomats serving in the country, invading armies and those born on foreign public ships, are U.S. citizens. Conservative lawmakers in the U.S. have occasionally attempted to revoke the birthright citizenship provision, but have failed to win broad support for doing so. Amending the U.S. Constitution is difficult, requiring both chambers of Congress to approve any changes with a two-thirds vote, followed by approval from at least 38 of the 50 state legislatures.
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IMF Puts off Decision on Using China's Currency for Reserve Status by webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
The International Monetary Fund says it will delay a decision by a year on whether or not to include China's money in its basket of reserve currencies. Reserve currencies are held by central banks to pay off international debt obligations or influence exchange rates. These include the dollar, yen, euro and the pound. IMF reserve currencies are supposed to be freely usable and widely traded internationally. China strictly controls its currency exchange rate and the flow of currency in and out of the country. Christopher Whalen of the Kroll Bond Rating Agency said China's yuan was not likely to become a reserve currency until and unless Beijing allowed it to move and trade freely. China's government roiled foreign currency and stock markets recently when it allowed the value of its yuan to drop sharply. Beijing said it was a move toward a more market-oriented method of determining exchange rates. Beijing's critics said it was a move to give Chinese exports a price advantage on global markets. Some information for this report came from Reuters.
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 Telegraph.co.uk |
Bear's revenge after being run over in Russia's far east
Telegraph.co.uk Police are seeking the driver and are considering launching an animal cruelty investigation.Russian bear run over several times by SUV, escapes, chases tormentors Photo: RT.com. People in a second vehicle film the incident. One man in the second ... and more » |
Libya Seeks Military Support, US Backs Dialogueby webdesk@voanews.com (Pamela Dockins)
Libya’s internationally recognized government has urged Arab countries to launch airstrikes against Islamic State-affiliated militants who have carried out beheadings and crucifixions and taken control of the city of Sirte. In a joint statement released by the State Department, the U.S. and five European nations condemned the atrocities but continued to back political dialogue as a means to bring stability to Libya’s fractured government. VOA State Department correspondent Pam Dockins reports.
In US, Debate Over Undocumented Immigrants Heats Upby webdesk@voanews.com (Deborah Block)
Billionaire and Republican presidential contender Donald Trump, in his latest statements about U.S. immigration reform this week, said American-born children of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be denied citizenship. And he reiterated that a wall should be built between Mexico and the United States. The non-partisan Pew Center estimates there are more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. - more than half from Mexico and about 25 percent from other Central American countries. But undocumented immigrants and advocacy groups say those without visas should be allowed to stay. VOA’s Deborah Block looks at the controversy.
Roy Jones Jr. Meets With Putin by By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Jones Jr. of the United States, a former world champion, asked President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for Russian citizenship.
Russia Sentences Estonian to 15 Years in Disputed Spy Caseby By SOPHIA KISHKOVSKY
The conviction of a security officer, which was denounced by Estonia and Western nations, reflects tensions between Russia and its Baltic neighbors.Washington Times |
Russia-Ukraine clashes spark fears Vladimir Putin may greenlight offensive
Washington Times With the Obama administration's attention focused on crises elsewhere, the 6-month-old fragile cease-fire between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russia separatists has deteriorated steadily in recent weeks, reigniting fears that Russian President ... Ukraine Violence Spikes Despite Cease-Fire; US, Russia Trade BarbsNBCNews.com NATO warns pro-Russia rebels against more Ukraine land grabsYahoo News Russia prepares to force the pace in UkraineFinancial Times Daily Beast -RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty all 1,019 news articles » |
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Russian lawmakers are calling the largest allied airborne drills in Europe since the Cold War a threat and provocation rather than a defensive exercise.
The Guardian |
Russia is using jailed Ukrainian pilot as a pawn in its game with the west
The Guardian Savchenko will appear in court this week for a preliminary hearing on fabricated charges of killing two journalists, Anton Voloshin and Igor Korneliuk, from Russian state television. Yet the pair died from artillery shelling two hours after Savchenko's ... and more » |
Daily Beast |
Russia Turned Me Into Propaganda
Daily Beast A regular theme in my articles is that the West is underestimating the threat from Putin's Russia. Put bluntly, we are losing. We don't understand the effect of Russian propaganda, of Russianmoney in Western politics, and the scale and speed of Russia ... |
US Wildfires Turn Deadly in Washington Stateby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
Three U.S. Forest Service firefighters were killed and four others injured while battling a wildfire in Washington state. Authorities said the firefighters were overcome by flames Wednesday after their vehicle crashed near the town of Twisp, in the north-central part of the state. A local law enforcement official described the fire as "a hellstorm." About 1,500 residents of Twisp and two other nearby towns were ordered to evacuate. "My heart breaks over the loss of the life," Washington state Governor Jay Inslee said in a written statement. Inslee asked the federal government to declare a state of emergency, which would provide more resources to help battle dozens of blazes. He said the fires destroyed 50 homes and 60 other buildings, and consumed more than 95,000 hectares of land across the state. The U.S. National Weather Service issued a "red-flag" warning for the eastern part of Washington state through Friday, with strong winds up to 72 kph and thunderstorms expected. The fires in Washington state are some of the nearly 100 large wildfires burning across the western United States, including California, Idaho, Montana and Oregon, fueled by a combination of drought and heat.
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Slipped Disc |
Russia fires St Petersburg Conservatoire chief
Slipped Disc Mikhail Gantvarg, 68, rector of the St. Petersburg State Conservatory, has been sacked by the Culture Minister, Medinsky. It follows an open letter sent to the minister by heads of other institutions, demanding Gantvarg's resignation. He had been in ... |
Reported Nuclear Side Deal Allows Iran to Do Self-Inspectionsby webdesk@voanews.com (Victor Beattie)
A draft of a side agreement to the Iranian nuclear agreement between the U.N. atomic watchdog agency and Tehran will allow Iran to use its own inspectors to investigate the secretive Parchin nuclear site, the Associated Press reported. The revelation comes just weeks before the U.S. Congress votes on whether to reject the deal. The Obama administration expressed confidence Wednesday in the technical plans of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for investigating Parchin, a military base south of Tehran, and previous possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said that while familiar with the contents, he would not comment directly on the purported draft IAEA document. "The IAEA is comfortable with arrangements which are unique to the agency’s investigation of Iran’s historicalactivities," Kirby noted. "When it comes to monitoring Iran's behavior going forward, the IAEA has separately developed the most robust inspection regime ever peacefully negotiated to ensure Iran’s current program remains exclusively peaceful – the overarching objective" of the JointComprehensive Plan of Action. Routine deal Kirby described the confidential arrangement between Iran and the IAEA as routine with other nations. "What the deal has endorsed is ensuring that ...possible military dimensions of their program have been adequately addressed by the IAEA.," he said. "That is what the P5+1 has endorsed. ... That process, that goal, that achievement is part of the roadmap going forward because, as we said, until those concerns are adequately addressed by the IAEA, there can be no sanctions relief under this deal," Kirby added. The side agreement, known as"separate arrangement 2," diverges from normal procedures, AP reported, by allowing Iran to employ its own experts and equipment in the search for evidence of activities it has consistently denied: trying to develop nuclear weapons. US congressional reaction But House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce said, "International inspections should be done by international inspectors. Period." "Congress must now consider whether this unprecedented arrangement will keep Iran from cheating. This is a dangerous farce," he said in a statement. Congress is expected to vote on the Iran nuclear agreement when it returns from a recess next month. Ambassador James Jeffries, who served in the George W. Bush administration and is now a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute on Near East Policy, expressed shock over this latest revelation and insisted the Iranians cannot be trusted. "I’m increasingly of the view that this administration will do anything to avoid challenging or irritating the Iranians," Jeffries said. "This was a country that was pursuing nuclear weapons at that site [Parchin]. I know that. I’ve seen the intelligence. This is going to reverberate very, very broadly around Congress, as it should." Possible veto If Congress passes a vote of disapproval, President Barack Obama has pledged to veto it. Congress would then need a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override the veto. Jeffries said that while the White House will lose votes on this latest report, it is unlikely to derail the agreement. Regional analyst Stephen Zunes of the University of San Francisco said criticism of the draft side agreement is overblown, adding the IAEA has a good track record of monitoring nuclear activity around the world. "They do not let countries get away with self-inspections that would, in any way, threaten their ability to monitor the development, possibly, of nuclear weapons," Zunes said. He said the Parchin facility "has been used for testing new explosives, new engines for missiles and the like, which could have application to nuclear weapons. "However, given that there will be very direct, intrusive inspections regarding the enrichment of uranium, and other activities that could lead to fissile materials, in many ways this is not relevant. If they don’t have the fissile material to develop a nuclear weapon, it's not a threat," he added. 'Most intrusive' inspections Zunes views the overall agreement as containing the most intrusive inspections regime of any country not defeated in war. The IAEA has sought access toParchin to corroborate intelligence suggesting Tehran conducted tests on nuclear triggering devices. According to the AP, Iran is to provide the IAEA with photos and videos of locations it says are linked to alleged weapons work “taking into account military concerns.” That suggests the agency will be barred from physically accessing the site.
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 НТВ.ru |
В Словакии столкнулись два небольших самолета
BBC Russian Два небольших самолета столкнулись на западе Словакии. По данным местных СМИ, в результате погибли семь человек, однако не исключается, что число жертв может увеличиться. Предположительно, речь идет о спортивных самолетах. Также пока нет информации о том, сколько ... В Словакии столкнулись два самолетаРБК СМИ: в Словакии столкнулись два самолета с парашютистами на бортуРИА Новости В небе над Словакией столкнулись два самолета, семь человек погиблиГазета.Ru Вести.Ru -Lenta.ru -Комсомольская правда Все похожие статьи: 90 » |
Putin’s Comments on Foreign Threats to Crimea Point to Increased Repression There by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, August 20 – Vladimir Putin’s suggestion in Stavropol yesterday that “external forces” threaten to destabilize the situation in Crimea by playing the nationalist card or exploiting the mistakes of officials almost certainly presages new repressions against the Crimean Tatars and a new purge of Russian occupation officials.
First of all, Kasparov.ru noted, “the president warned that in certain capitals people are talking about conducting undermining activity, forming corresponding structures, recruiting and preparing cadres for the carrying out of diversions, acts of sabotage, and the dissemination of radical propaganda.”
It has long been a hallmark of Putin’s reign that he does not believe that peoples are capable of speaking for themselves but must be led by outside agitators and that he posits the existence of such agitators in order to justify repressive actions of his own. Thus, the future of the Crimean Tatars almost certainly is bleak at least in the short term.
Second, Putin said that it was critically important that officials by their mistakes not provide an opening for such outside groups. He noted that since the Anschluss, more than 1500 cases had been opened against officials accused of corruption and that “more than 60 senior officials had been removed.”
He said that it was necessary to “cleanse the organs of power from those who are corrupt and who have compromised themselves by doubtful connections,” thus reprising an argument he has often used that those who are corrupt are guilty of more than economic crimes: they are guilty of political ones.
The invocation of that argument suggests in turn that the future of many occupation officials may not be bright either. Clearly, Putin will not wipe out all corruption: in his government, there would be no one left if he in fact did. But a new witch hunt will have consequences, and many of those now serving in Crimea may lose their jobs.
And third, according to the Kasparov.ru summary, “Putin called for strengthening customs and other types of control at border posts.” He cast this as an effort to prevent drug trafficking and the importation of “low quality or prohibited products,” but in fact, it will further isolate occupied Crimea and further drive down the standard of living there.
In brief and despite his ostensible goals, all three of Putin’s calls are likely to increase tensions on the Ukrainian peninsula, leading to the greater use of force by Russian occupiers and less support for them among the population there.
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Foreign Financing of United Russia Candidates -- and Other Curiosities of the Upcoming Voteby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, August 20 – In the latest manifestation of the Orwellian principle that “all animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others,” some candidates from the ruling United Russia Party and its allies are being financed from firms based abroad, something that would lead to charges of being foreign agents or worse if any real opposition figures tried to do the same.
In today’s “Vedomosti,” Elena Mukhametshina reports on a Golos study in which experts conclude that “the system of financing election campaigns for governor is so opaque” that some candidates are getting “foreign financing” (vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2015/08/20/605504-golos-predlagaet-schitat-edinuyu-rossiyu-inostrannim-agentom).
The journalist notes that “already by the results of last year, ‘foreign agents’ are at the head of several regions,” Golos found; and the election monitoring group says that after the upcoming September votes, “the number of governors whose campaigns are financed from abroad will only grow.”
Not surprisingly, “the largest contributions from foreign sources” are going to the ruling United Russia party and its candidates,” although the complexities of the legal webs its operatives use to make this possible preclude a precise determination of just how large this problem is, Golos’ Stanislav Andreychuk said.
He argued that “a prohibition on foreign financing is needed in order to protect the political system from the influence of foreign governments, but current law allows with the help of shadow companies to finance parties and election campaigns from abroad. It turns out that those who gain access to the levers of power can finance whomever they want.”
In the course of the present campaign, Andreychuk found, many candidates have been getting funds from companies registered in Cyprus or the Virgin Islands. Vasily Golubev of United Russia received such funds for his campaign to head Rostov oblast, as did Aleksey Ostrovsky of the LDPR who is campaigning to head Smolensk oblast.
Such foreign shell companies can be used to hide where the money is really coming from, including from the Russian government itself, according to the Golos study. Candidates typically say they have no knowledge of such funding, but some at least say they will give the money back if they learn it is coming from such sourcews.
Vadim Solovyev, a KPRF candidate, for example, says that his party tracks where its contributions are coming from in order to insure that there are no contributions from companies which in whole or in part belong to the government. If it determines that such contributions have been made, “we will return [them].”
Yevgeny Minchenko, a Moscow political analyst says, that he does not exclude that “certain companies which finance parties and elections can be beneficiaries with foreign roots,” but he insists that “’this is a question for party lawyers,’” rather than for the country and its electorate as a whole.
He favors liberalizing financing arrangements so that the real amount of money candidates spend is not as now many times the amount they legally declare. If that were done, then contributions would have to be reported directly rather than hidden by offshores or other means.
A second curiosity of this election season in Russia, albeit one with analogies elsewhere as well, is the Russian version of gerrymandering. For the first time in nine years, half of the seats of the Duma will be elected from territorial districts rather than just party lists; and the Central Election Commission has to draw the lines for these 225.
In 32 federal subjects, Sergey Yezhov of “Novyye izvestiya” reports, there will be only one electoral district, but in the rest, there will be several and where the lines are drawn may have an impact on outcomes just as such lines do in other countries (newizv.ru/politics/2015-08-19/225743-popast-pod-razdachu.html).
But if in other countries, these lines are known well in advance, in Russia, the Commission has not yet announced them, thus making it more difficult for many politicians and parties to decide whom to run and on what slogans given that they could easily find themselves in districts whose lines would suggest different people and different programs.
And a third curiosity of the current Russian electoral season is the return of early voting, to allow those who will be absent from their homes on election day or who live far from polling places (as in the Far North) to vote in advance, something that was prohibited in Russia between 2010 and last year (newizv.ru/politics/2015-08-20/225820-effekt-nulevyh-vyborov.html).
In 2010, the Duma passed a law preventing early voting because of the fears of many that it opened the way to manipulation of the results; but in 2014, the Russian Constitutional Court overturned that law as what it said was a restriction on the rights of Russians. Consequently, many Russians are already voting in the September elections.
“Experts and opposition figures say that this procedure has already discredited itself,” “Novyye izvestiya” reports; but they do not believe that there will be any change because those in power are only too happy to have this additional means of ensuring that the results are what they want.
Inna Kurtyukova of the Civic Observer organization says that it is almost impossible to monitor early voting because there simply aren’t enough volunteers prepared to watch what is taking place over several weeks. Consequently what she calls “’interested persons’” can always play games with these ballots.
As even the Central Electoral Commission acknowledges, such games have happened most often in St. Petersburg. Boris Vishnevsky of the northern capital’s legislative assembly, says that so many ballots cast early were invalid that it had the potential to affect the outcome of many races.
And Vadim Solovyev, the KPRF deputy who is deputy chairman of the Duma’s constitutional law committee, said that “early voting opens the way for massive falsifications.” According to him, this is a particular problem in the non-Russian republics where early voting is extremely common.
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Paul Goble
Staunton, August 20 – Many Russians, encouraged by the Kremlin, believe that the Russian economy can bounce back from the current crisis the way it did after earlier crises in 1998 and 2008, but their faith is misplaced, Andrey Vorobyev says, because the Russian economy is not competitive and doesn’t have the reserves it did earlier.
In a comment for “Novaya gazeta,” the St. Petersburg economist outlines the differences between Russia’s situation in 1998 at the time of default and in 2008 when the worldwide recession began and the situation now which is much less hopeful and from which it will be far more difficult to escape (novayagazeta.ru/comments/69572.html).
With the collapse of oil prices and the fall in the ruble exchange rate, Vorobyev points out, there is now not only a decline in both direct and portfolio investments but a dramatic decline in demand, a new development on the Russian scene in recent times.
In the 1998 crisis, external factors played a large role in determining the movement of capital and changes in prices, and “therefore the economy could quickly begin its return to growth: we had unused productive capacity and a high level of unemployment.” Now, “the situation is completely different.”
Russia today has the same “old basic capital,” that capital is near capacity, and “unemployment is relatively low,” the economist writes. Consequently, even the decline in the value of the ruble “will not become a stimulus for economic growth” unlike the case 17 years ago.
Thus, Russia “must be prepared for the further worsening of the macro-economic situation” rather than expect a rapid turnaround.
Russia’s economic situation is also fundamentally different from what it was in 2008, Vorobyev says. Unlike at that time, the declining price of oil means that the budget “today cannot serve as a stimulus for the growth of demand,” and the size of the country’s reserve fund was “incomparably larger then” than it is now.
While one can point to several specific short-term triggers of the current crisis, it reflects several long-term factors “connected with the disproportions laid up in [Russia’s] economy,” he continues. Among these are an underdeveloped private sector given the growth of state corporations which get funds and “to put it mildly do not always effectively spend them.”
Other factors working against recovery are “the high level of the centralization of government finances which in connection with the decline of oil prices has also suffered” and government employment policy which has sought to keep people at work even though real incomes are falling rapidly.
Unless there is a radical change of course, Vorobyev says, Russia will be able to stay even with or even best the income levels of the BRICS countries, but it won’t be able to achieve the standard of living of even the poorer countries of Western Europe such as Portugal. The best it could might hope for would be to find itself in the situation of Greece.
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US Oil Falls Towards $40 on Global Glutby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
LONDON—
U.S. crude oil prices fell to almost $40 a barrel on Thursday, their lowest since the global financial crisis of 2009, as supplies rose in North America and the Middle East, filling stockpiles to record levels.
Oil has lost a third of its value since June on high U.S. production, record crude pumping in the Middle East and concern about falling demand in Asian economies.
All the main oil futures contracts looked to be heading lower, PVM Oil Associates director and technical analyst Robin Bieber said. "The trend is down and vicious," Bieber said in a note to clients of the London brokerage.
U.S. crude oil, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI CLc1, was down 50 cents at $40.30 a barrel by 1030 GMT, after hitting a new 6-1/2-year low of $40.21.
Brent crude futures LCOc1, the global oil benchmark, were down 75 cents at $46.41 a barrel, still some way off their 2015 low of $45.19 traded in January.
U.S. crude inventories rose 2.6 million barrels last week to 456.21 million barrels, the government's Energy Information Administration said.
Markets had been expecting a stock draw and the news pushed WTI down more than 4 percent on Wednesday.
Stockpiles rose partly because a U.S. refinery closed for repairs last week, but also because imports rose to their highest level since April.
Canada increased exports to the United States by more than 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) over the past week to 3.39 million bpd, an Energy Aspects research note said.
But U.S. crude oil production has also fallen by over 250,000 bpd since the start of June.
"While this is a clear sign that low prices will lead to less production, it was not enough to convince people yesterday," Commerzbank senior oil analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
OPEC continues to pump record levels of oil, adding to the global oil glut.
Saudi Arabia exported 7.365 million bpd in June, up from 6.935 million bpd in May, industry data showed.
Adding to oil's bearish environment, Chinese equities fell more than 3 percent on Thursday as worries about the world's second-largest economy persist.
Long-term derivatives markets are bearish.
Contracts for delivery of crude oil in the future show the price of oil for delivery in five years' time has collapsed in recent months.
Crude oil for delivery in 2020 costs only about $20 more than current prices, futures markets show.
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At least 20 people were wounded in an attack on a branch of the Egyptian security agency, adding to a wave of militant violence in the capital over the summer.
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The discovery in the northern Chinese port city raised fears that the environmental damage caused by the explosions may worsen.
Man shot in exchange of gunfire with police officers in western North Carolina
GAZA/ISMAILIA, Egypt (Reuters) - Four members of Hamas' armed wing were abducted in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula on Wednesday after the bus they were on was stopped by unidentified gunmen, sources close to the Palestinian group and Egyptian security officials said.
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Good morning.
Here’s what you need to know:
• Dueling Republicans.
Two town-hall-style meetings in New Hampshire, a crucial primary state, showed the contrasting styles of Donald J. Trump and Jeb Bush, who are leading in Republican polls.
In a sign of the public’s interest in Mr. Trump, Fox News at one point cut away from Mr. Bush, midsentence, to focus on an empty lectern awaiting the billionaire candidate.
• Border fire in Korea.
North and South Korea exchanged rocket and artillery fire across their border today, their first armed clash in five years, the South Korean Defense Ministry said.
No casualties were immediately reported on either side.
• Bomb attack in Cairo.
An Islamic State affiliate claimed responsibility for today’s attack on a branch of the state security agency that wounded at least 20 people. It was the third major attack by militants in the capital this summer.
Egypt’s president, who has effectively ruled the country by decree for two years, had just approved new counterterrorism laws intended to fight the growing militant insurgency against his government.
• Protests in St. Louis.
Officers arrested at least nine people and used tear gas in St. Louis during protests, which may continue today, over the death of an 18-year-old black man.
He was shot on Wednesday by two white police officers, who said he had pointed a gun at them.
• Graphic testimony.
The cross-examination of the 16-year-old girl at the center of the rape trial of a former student at the elite St. Paul’s School in New Hampshire begins today.
The case explores the culture of sex, gender and entitlement at St. Paul’s, which counts ambassadors, senators and prominent authors among its alumni.
• President Carter’s update.
In an unusual step, Jimmy Carter is expected to discuss his health at a news conference today in Atlanta, eight days after he said that he learned he had cancer.
• Wildfires kill three firefighters.
Three firefighters were killed and four others were injured in Washington State as blazes forced thousands to evacuate.
MARKETS
• For the first time since the recession, the benchmark U.S. oil price is approaching the $40-a-barrel level. Last summer, it was above $100.
In a measure of their concern that the price collapse could last through 2016, oil companies gave anauction of drilling leases scant interest this week.
• Greece made a $3.56 billion payment to the European Central Bank today, using cash from its new international bailout, a senior government official told Reuters.
• The district attorneys of San Francisco and Los Angeles say background checks used by Uberfailed to uncover criminal records of 25 drivers, despite the company’s assurances that it employs “industry-leading” screening.
• Union leaders and McDonald’s workers from around the world are converging in the capital of Brazil to testify before the Senate about global working conditions at McDonald’s.
• Wall Street stock futures are lower after the Shanghai index closed down more than 3 percent. European shares are also off.
NOTEWORTHY
• Overtime kills.
People who work 55 hours or more per week have a 33 percent greater risk of stroke and a 13 percent greater risk of coronary heart disease than those working standard hours, researchers reported.
• Silent celebrity.
While you can find Beyoncé on the cover of Vogue’s 832-page September issue, she doesn’t say a word inside.
She last tweeted two years ago, and hasn’t given an interview in over a year.
• Play ball!
The 16-team Little League World Series begins today in Williamsport, Pa. (1 p.m. Eastern, ESPN).
There won’t be another star like Mo’ne Davis this year, however, as there are no girls on any of the qualifying teams.
• Two-timers.
Two online search tools claim to show whether a particular email address was part of the data breach of Ashley Madison, a dating website marketed at would-be adulterers.
Of the site’s 37 million users, more than 15,000 submitted email addresses that were hosted on U.S. government and military servers, The Hill reported.
• Second plague case in California.
Health officials are investigating a case of plague that a camper most likely contracted while visiting Yosemite National Park.
The disease, fatal if not treated quickly, is found among squirrels, chipmunks and other rodents, but is rare among humans.
• Meet the new Rangers.
Captain Kristen Griest, who has served as a military police platoon leader, and First Lt. Shaye Haver, who was a pilot on an Apache helicopter in an aviation brigade, are the first women set to graduatefrom the Army’s Ranger School.
BACK STORY
Edinburgh, Scotland’s capital, is once again the center of the world’s art scene this month.
The Edinburgh International Festival, which includes performances in the city’s major theaters and concert halls, began in 1947. Sir Rudolf Bing, who later led the Metropolitan Opera, was the main force behind creating an event to bring global culture to an austere, postwar Britain.
Highlights this year include Juliette Binoche in the lead role of “Antigone,” and a new trilogy of plays by Rona Munro about Scottish kings.
As if that gathering were not enough to swell the city of roughly 500,000 people, there is theEdinburgh Festival Fringe, a theatrical sideshow that began when a small group of artists was closed out of the main festival in 1947 and decided to perform anyway.
The Fringe now features more than 450 companies putting on 3,314 shows across 313 venues, including pubs and windowless rooms. The shows are typically not prescreened by organizers.
The Edinburgh International Book Festival, which began in 1983 and calls itself the world’s “largest public celebration of the written word,” adds 700 or so events to the city this month.
It all adds up to a dizzying kaleidoscope of arts.
Victoria Shannon contributed reporting.
Your Morning Briefing is published weekdays at 6 a.m. Eastern and updated on the web all morning.
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