Search for Answers Begins in Sinking of US Cargo Shipby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
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Search for Answers Begins in Sinking of US Cargo Shipby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
On board the 790-foot El Faro when it set out on its doomed voyage into the path of Hurricane Joaquin were five Polish workers whose job was to prepare the engine room for a retrofitting. Could that work have caused the loss of power that led to the U.S. container ship's sinking? The vessel's owners say they don't believe so, but the question - along with the captain's decision to plot a course near the storm - will almost certainly be part of an investigation launched Tuesday by the National Transportation Safety Board into the disaster near the Bahamas that may have claimed 33 lives. “We don't have all the answers, I'm sorry for that. I wish we did,” Anthony Chiarello, president and CEO of ship owner Tote Inc., told reporters. “But we will find out what happened.” The 41-year-old El Faro was scheduled to be retired from Caribbean duty and retrofitted in the coming months for service between the West Coast and Alaska, said Phil Greene, another Tote executive. The El Faro and its equally aged sister vessel were being replaced on the Jacksonville-to-Puerto Rico run by two brand-new ships capable of carrying much more cargo and emitting less pollution. When the El Faro left Jacksonville on Sept. 29, the five Polish workers came along with 28 U.S. crew members to do some preparatory work in the engine room, according to Greene. He gave no details on the nature of their work. But “I don't believe based on the work they were doing that they would have had anything to do with what affected the propulsion,” said Greene, a retired Navy admiral. The NTSB dispatched a team from Washington to investigate. “It's just a tragic, tragic situation,” NTSB vice chairman Bella Dinh-Zarr said. The El Faro had no history of engine failure, Greene said, and the company said the vessel was modernized in 1992 and 2006. Company records show it underwent its last annual Coast Guard inspection in March. The American Bureau of Shipping, a nonprofit organization that sets safety and other standards for ships, did full hull and machinery inspections in February with no red flags, the company said. F. John Nicoll, a retired captain who spent years piloting the run to Puerto Rico, said he doubts the age of the El Faro was a factor, noting that there are many older ships plying U.S. waters without incident. He predicted the NTSB will look into whether company pressure to deliver the cargo on time despite the menacing weather played a role in the tragedy - something Tote executives have denied. “Time and money are an important thing” in the shipping industry, Nicoll said. He said there should be emails and other messages between the captain and the company to help answer the question. The Coast Guard, meanwhile, continued searching by sea and air for any sign of survivors. The ship is believed to have gone down in 15,000 feet of water after reporting its last known position Thursday. One unidentified body has been found. Tote executives said the captain, Michael Davidson, planned a heading that would have enabled the El Faro to bypass Joaquin if the ship hadn't lost power. That left it vulnerable to the storm's 140 mph winds and battering waves of more than 50 feet. They said Davidson was in regular communication before the storm with the company, which can override a captain's decisions. Davidson attended the Maine Maritime Academy and has a home in Windham, Maine. “He was a very squared-away sailor, very meticulous with details, very prudent, which is important when you're working on the water. He took his job seriously,” said Nick Mavadones, a friend since childhood and general manager of Casco Bay Lines, where he and Davidson worked together. Still, seafarers who have long experience in the Caribbean say its weather can be treacherous. “It can go from calm, in a matter of five or six hours, to hell,” said Angel Ortiz, who retired as a merchant mariner after 39 years.
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Yahoo News |
In Syria, Russia chasing Chechens once again
Yahoo News The presence of Islamists from the Caucasus is not the decisive factor for unleashing Russia'smilitary might, said Syria specialist Thomas Pierret from the University of Edinburgh. Even so, the presence of Chechens on the ground effectively makes it ... and more » |
 РИА Новости |
Минобороны РФ "наградило" советника главы МВД Украины "орденом Иуды"
РИА Новости Подобным образом генерал-майор Минобороны РФ Игорь Конашенков прокомментировал призыв советника министра внутренних дел Украины Антона Геращенко раскрывать известную информацию о российских военных для помощи боевикам "Исламского государства". Советник ... Геращенко грозит статья за призыв к мести военным РФ в Сирии «по шариату»ИА REGNUM Минобороны наградило советника главы МВД Украины Геращенко Орденом ИудыВзгляд Минобороны России «наградило» Геращенко орденом ИудыГазета.Ru Lenta.ru -BFM.Ru -Дни.Ру Все похожие статьи: 147 » |
Choosing a gift for someone you think already "has everything" is a challenge. Now, imagine if that someone is Russian President Vladimir Putin.
UK still seeking to conduct Syria airstrikes, says Michael Fallonby Rowena Mason Political correspondent
Defence secretary says ministers are hoping to build consensus in order to go to parliament and have a vote
Britain is still seeking to conduct airstrikes in Syria even though Russia’s military action there is making the country extremely dangerous, Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, has said.
The senior cabinet minister said it was unhelpful that Russia was “conniving with and propping up” the regime of the Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, when countries should be working together to fight Islamic State.
Continue reading...RT |
Top Ukraine official backs idea 'to help ISIS take revenge on Russian soldiers ...
RT Gerashchenko said he received a message on Facebook which said that “Russian propaganda channels” and Russian army in almost every report “show off” their military personnel in Syria. The post, as well as Gerashchenko's Facebook page, were ... and more » |
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The exodus deprives Syria of a demographic crucial to reconstruction while threatening to create a new underclass in Europe.
Консультации проводятся в целях выработки механизма предотвращения инцидентов в воздушном пространстве на сирийско-турецкой границе.
 BBC News |
Russia 'making Syria more dangerous', Michael Fallon says
BBC News Russia's intervention in the Syrian civil war has made the situation "much more dangerous", Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has said. Russia says its air strikes, which are backed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, are aimed at so-called Islamic ... and more » |
 BBC News |
Belarus 'does not need' Russia air base - Lukashenko
BBC News Belarus does not need a Russian air base, President Alexander Lukashenko has said, despite growing pressure from Moscow to establish such a facility. He said the issue was never discussed with Russia, although last month President Vladimir Putin ... Belarus' president says he doesn't want Russian air baseYahoo News all 215 news articles » |
 Reuters |
Activists: Russia, Syria launch coordinated attack on Assad opponents
CNN Washington (CNN) Russia and the embattled Syrian regime launched coordinated attacks on Islamist factions in numerous towns in Hama and Idlib provinces in western Syria on Wednesday, with Syrian shelling being conducted in apparent concert with ... Syrian activists: Russian air strikes pound rebel zones in latest blowsWashington Post Syrian army and Russian jets target rebels in western SyriaReuters Russian air strikes targeting Syrian rebel groups accompanied by ground ...The Independent The Times (subscription) all 307 news articles » |
Moldovan authorities have teamed up with the FBI in push to prevent nuclear material falling into the hands of Islamic State extremists in the Middle East and Africa
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Some of Russia’s Sunni Muslim Majority Angered by Putin’s Support of Shiite Syria and Iranby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, October 7 – There are growing indications that some of the overwhelmingly Sunni majority of Russia’s more than 20 million Muslims are upset about Vladimir Putin’s support of Bashar Asad’s Shiite government in Syria and the Kremlin leader’s increasingly close cooperation with Shiite Iran.
On the one hand, there are complaints about the fact that the official Muslim hierarchy in Russia has fallen into line behind the Kremlin on Syria (orda1313.com/2015/10/06/molchanie-yagnyat/), that Putin is helping the ayatollahs rather than the Sunnis (dsnews.ua/world/kak-putin-pomagaet-ayatollam-05102015152500), and that what Syria reminds Muslims of the Afghan war which helped trigger the end of the USSR (kavpolit.com/articles/afgan_simptom-20455/).
And on the other, there is growing evidence that Moscow’s position has allowed the overwhelmingly Sunni Islamic State to consolidate dominance over militants in the North Caucasus and to extend its influence deeper into other regions of the Russian Federation (sovsekretno.ru/articles/id/5091/).
These feelings likely have been exacerbated by what some commentators have suggested is the mounting “anti-Islamic hysteria,” almost all of whose targets are Sunni rather than Shiia members of the faith now emanating from Russian officials and the Russian-government controlled media (nv.ua/opinion/panfilov/antiislamskaja-isterika-kremlja-72619.html).
And they have been reinforced as well by the opposition of Sunni countries, including Saudi Arabia, to Putin’s campaign in support of Asad and Tehran, opposition that Muslim news outlets in Russia are devoting ever more attention to as can be seen atislamio.ru/news/policy/saudovskie_islamskie_deyateli_nelegitimny_obyavlyat_dzhikhad_rossii/.
If Putin is not yet worried about this development, others in Russia are. Artur Atayev, head of the Caucasus Sector of the influential Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, says that it appears that Syria was designed by the West as a trap for Moscow to discredit Russia in the Muslim world and the Kremlin itself in the eyes of Russia’s Muslims (beregrus.ru/?p=5127).
And today, the editors of “Nezavisimaya gazeta” argued that the Syrian operation entails “serious risks” for Moscow and none more serious than the possibility that it will make Russia a target for jihadists and generate terrorism within the borders of the Russian Federation (ng.ru/editorial/2015-10-07/2_red.html).
As the Moscow paper’s editors note, “the USSR for a long time played an important role in the Middle East, and now Moscow is again counting on gaining levers of influence in the region. However,” they add, “the current military action in Syria brings with it serious risks.” And they proceed to enumerate them.
First of all, there is the likelihood that the West will react to Moscow’s moves with even tougher sanctions or other actions. Second, Russia may get drawn into a land war as in Afghanistan. And third, Russia may find itself the target of jihad and thus of terrorism domestically.
Sunni religious figures in Saudi Arabia have already called for a holy war “against the government of Syria and its ‘Iranian and Russian protectors,” and no one should forget that the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan “also led to a declaration of jihad” against the USSR and that “many current terrorist groups” have their roots in that earlier conflict.
“But the most terrible thing of all,” the paper concludes, will be if the terrorists whom Russia is attacking from the air decide to deliver a response on Russian territory. A representative of the Islamic State has already spoken about the creation of a Caucasus branch of the Islamic State and the possibility of unleashing a holy war in Russia.”
“Moscow,” “Nezavisimaya gazeta” says, “is seriously concerned about the return of terrorists from Syria and Iraq, and these fears have a real basis,” especially if those coming in to the Russian Federation came from there in the first place and find support for their ideas among Russia’s Muslims on their return.
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FBI foils plot to sell nuclear material in Moldovaby Matthew Weaver and Associated Press
Russian-linked smuggling gang specifically sought buyer from Islamic State, reveals investigation
Four attempts by Russian-linked gangs in Moldova to sell nuclear material have been thwarted by the authorities and the FBI over the past five years, according to an Associated Press investigation.
The most recent case was in February when undercover agents were offered a large amount of radioactive caesium from a smuggler who specifically sought a buyer from Islamic State, the report said.
Continue reading...Daily Star |
Jihadis on the run: Russian bombing blitz on ISIS sends Brit terrorists ...
Daily Star HURT: Russia's latest of attacks have apparently caused £24million damage. One source said: "They're not so brave now – they want to save their skins." ISIS warlords used slave labour to build underground bunkers where they can cower from the Russian ... |
 РИА Новости |
Ирак может запросить помощь России в авиаударах по ИГ при успехе в САР
РИА Новости Если удары авиации РФ по позициям "Исламского государства" в Сирии будут эффективными, то Ирак готов рассмотреть возможность обратиться к России за помощью в борьбе с террористами, заявил глава комитета по безопасности и обороне в парламенте Ирака. Звено российских ... В Багдаде допустили обращение к России за военной помощью в ближайшие дниРБК Ирак может попросить у России помощь в нанесении авиаударов по ИГКоммерсантъ Ирак назвал условие обращения к России с просьбой об авиаударахВзгляд Интерфакс -Forbes Россия -Газета.Ru Все похожие статьи: 36 » |
Nato navies face "a more aggressive, more capable Russian Navy," as the Kremlin pours money into new equipment and bases, says alliance commander
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Chuvash Say They Want Return of Their Compatriots from Elsewhere in Russia and Abroadby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, October 7 – The Kremlin’s program of seeking the return of “Russian compatriots” from abroad has sparked interest among other nationalities in Russia. The most prominent of these has been the Circassians who would like to see the return of some of the five million Circassians abroad to their historic homeland in the North Caucasus.
But now Chuvash activists have taken the next step, one that others may copy and that could fundamentally destabilize the Russian Federation. They are calling for the return of Chuvash compatriots not only from beyond the borders of Russia but also from Chuvash communities within those borders as well (irekle.org/news/i2015.html).
Only about half of the 1.6 million Chuvash in the Russian Federation live in Chuvashia, the remainder are spread across many parts of the Middle Volga and further afield. In addition, there are small Chuvash communities in the former Soviet republics, numbering perhaps 50,000, and a roughly similar number beyond the borders of the former USSR.
Were a sizeable number of Chuvash to return to Chuvashia, that would not only redress the demographic collapse of this Christian Turkic people but would also boost the share of Chuvash in the republic’s population – it is now roughly 67 percent – and create better conditions for the survival of the Chuvash language and culture.
On Monday, the Ireklekh Society for the National-Cultural Rebirth of the Chuvash sent a letter to Mikhail Ignatyev, the head of the republic administration. Citing the existence of the Russian program for the return of compatriots, the Chuvash activists argued that the Chuvash Republic needs something analogous.
Among the potential candidates for resettlement in Chuvashia, the Irekhlekh activists continued, are ethnic Chuvash, those who have at least one Chuvash parent, those of any nationality who speak Chuvash, and those of any nationality who were born on the territory of the republic.
They suggested that priority be given to “those who live abroad and in regions of the Russian Federation which do not have places of compact settlement of Chuvash.” Where Chuvash do form a compact majority locally – in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and Ulyanovsk and Samara oblasts – they should be encouraged to return only after the others lest their departure put the Chuvash at risk in these places.
The activists called for providing resettlers with land and other benefits and stress that the return of Chuvash compatriots will “promote the development of the economy and the creation of new jobs in the republic.” Such a program will not face the problem of adapting migrants because the returnees will already have a connection with the Chuvash nation.
At the same time, the Irekhlekh organization said that a resettlement program will play a key role in “’the preservation and development of Chuvash national self-consciousness’ because beyond the borders of Chuvashia, assimilation as is well-known is proceeding at accelerated rates.”
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Senior Iraqi parliamentarian says he wants Russia to take over the lead from America in fight against Islamic State jihadists
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LIVE UPDATES: Syrian regime forces are now reported to be on the advance supported by intense Russian air strikes on a pocket of rebel-held territory in the Hama province.
The previous post in our Putin in Syria column can be found here.
 BBC Russian |
Российские корабли нанесли ракетные удары по территории Сирии
BBC Russian Корабли Каспийской флотилии ВМФ России нанесли 26 ударов по позициям боевиков экстремистской группировки "Исламское государство" в Сирии, заявил российский министр обороны Сергей Шойгу на встрече с президентом Владимиром Путиным. "Четыре ракетных корабля ... Российские корабли в Каспийском море нанесли удары по позициям ИГ в СирииРБК Путин на встрече с Шойгу высоко оценил предварительные итоги операции ВКС в СирииИнформационное агентство России ТАСС Шойгу рассказал Путину о нарастании интенсивности ударов по ИГИЛРосбалт.RU Первый канал -РИА Новости -Российская Газета Все похожие статьи: 175 » |
Russia says it has deployed Mi-24P attack helicopters to reinforce Russia's military base in Tajikistan.
U.S. Urges Russia To Find Masterminds Of Politkovskaya Murder by support@pangea-cms.com (RFE/RL)
The U.S. State Department has urged Russian authorities to find those who ordered the murder of prominent Russian investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya.
 CNBC |
Russia-Saudi oil cooperation is 'hogwash': Kilduff
CNBC Russia, one of the world's top three oil producers, said this past weekend it was prepared to meet OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to discuss the market if such a gathering is called. A separate meeting between Russian and Saudi officials was being ... Hint Russia May Work With OPEC Sends Oil Prices SoaringRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty Russia Ready to Take Part in OPEC Consultations - Energy MinisterSputnik International all 707 news articles » |
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 Российская Газета |
Минобороны России и США разошлись в "глубине" взаимодействия по Сирии
Российская Газета Обсуждение вопроса о взаимодействии оборонных ведомств России и США на сирийском театре военных действий оборачивается закулисными дипломатическими баталиями между Министерством обороны РФ и Пентагоном. Основным предметом разногласий стала "глубина" ... Минобороны: авиация РФ наносит удары по ИГ для борьбы с терроризмомРИА Новости Минобороны: ВКС РФ бьют в Сирии только по террористам, а ВВС США – нетВести.Ru Минобороны России заявило, что США «очень часто» бьют не по ИГГазета.Ru Взгляд -Комсомольская правда -Ведомости Все похожие статьи: 1 029 » |
The global economy is becoming stuck in the mud again
Escalating Syria Attack, Russia Fires Missiles From Warshipsby ANDREW E. KRAMER and ANNE BARNARD
The military launched medium-range missiles from nearly 1,000 miles away from the war zone, bringing to the conflict elements of its Cold War-era might.
 New York Times |
Escalating Syria Attack, Russia Fires Missiles From Warships
New York Times MOSCOW — Sharply escalating its role in Syria, the Russian military launched on Wednesday medium-range cruise missiles from nearly 1,000 miles away, bringing to the conflict elements of its Cold War-era military might. The new Russian airstrikes came ... Syrian forces begin ground offensive backed by Russia air and sea powerWashington Post Russian warships target Islamic State in SyriaUSA TODAY Russia, Syria launch coordinated attack on al-Assad opponents, activists sayCNN The Guardian -Reuters -Voice of America all 1,306 news articles » |
Сноуден готов вернуться в США by golosamerikius
После двух лет, проведенных в России, беглый подрядчик Агентства Национальной Безопасности Эдвард Сноуден готов отправиться в американскую тюрьму – но власти США почему-то не реагируют на его предложения. Об этом он заявил в интервью ВВС. Сноуден также отрицает, что сотрудничает с российскими спецслужбами.
Крылатые ракеты успешно поразили все заданные цели. Точность поражения целей на дальней дистанции составила не более 3 метров.
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EU Launches Anti-Human Trafficking Pushby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
The European Union has started a new operation in the southern Mediterranean Sea to intercept human trafficking boats trying to enter the bloc illegally. "Operation Sophia" began Wednesday, with naval vessels given permission to board, search, and seize vessels suspected of human trafficking. In the past, the EU has focused on search-and-rescue operations in the sea -- but with this year's overwhelming flood of migrants from Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere, thousands have ended up dying at sea while trying to reach European shores. Merkel, Hollande German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande are expected to appear before the European Parliament Wednesday to discuss the migrant issue, which has brought the largest crowds of migrants to the borders of European countries since World War II. Reports say more than 130,000 migrants have crossed to Europe from the North African coast this year. But 2,700 of those are believed to have drowned while making the dangerous journey. On Tuesday the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR) called on EU member states to ensure that all discussions of migration policy are grounded on the need to protect the human rights of all migrants. Speaking ahead of the October 8 meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein expressed particular concerns about the nature of the ‘hotspot’ approach, driven by countries’ security agenda. UNHCR applauds move UNHCR welcomes “the efforts of the EU to offer support to the frontline member states receiving large numbers of migrants, states must ensure that these ‘hotspots’ are not, in effect, detention centers in disguise,” the High Commissioner said. Italy and Greece have both reduced the use of immigration detention. Italy will be the first to begin relocating refugees on Friday – a group of Eritreans – under an EU plan to ease the burden of Europe’s most severe migrant crisis since World War II.
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Crimean Blockade Getting Moscow’s Attentionby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, October 7 – The effectiveness of the Crimean Tatar-organized blockade of occupied Crimea is reflected not only in price rises and shortages in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian peninsula but also in the reaction it is generating not only among the occupation forces but also in Moscow which has been trying to play down the Crimean issue.
The blockade of occupied Crimea has resulted both in shortages and price increases for basic foods that mean the prices in Crimea are now “higher than in the Ukrainian capital” and in some cases an order of magnitude of more higher, the best indication that the action is having an impact (qha.com.ua/ru/ekonomika/na-rinkah-krima-dorojayut-produkti-v-prognoze-defitsit-myasa/149139/).
But the most important consequence of the blockade, Refat Chubarov, the head of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, is that it has returned the issue of Crimea to the center of attention of the international community and led to new declarations that the Russian occupation must end and Ukrainian control restored (qha.com.ua/ru/politika/refat-chubarov-blokada-privlekla-vnimanie-k-probleme-krima/149150/).
The reaction of occupation regime officials suggests, the Crimean Tatar QHA news agency says, that they are beginning to “panic” as a result of the blockade. Remzi Ilyasov, vice speaker of the Russian-organized Crimean State Council, says the blockade shows Ukraine doesn’t care about Crimeans while Russians do (qha.com.ua/ru/politika/vitsespiker-gossoveta-krima-nachal-panikovat-izza-blokadi-krima/149147/).
And Vladimir Konstantinov, the chairman of the Crimean State Council, says that the blockade represents “a threat of genocide,” something he adds are “the real intentions of the fascist illegal band formations” (qha.com.ua/ru/politika/spiker-gossoveta-krima-nazvav-blokadu-genotsidom-zaputalsya-v-svoih-mislyah/149148/).
By such declarations, QHA points out, the occupation authorities are showing “the effectiveness of the action and also indirectly undercutting the recently made statements” of other officials there “that the blockade of Crimea is not inflicting any economic harm on the peninsula.”
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Для личного состава соединения, сформированного в начале нынешнего года, это было уже третье учение в Арктике. В район его проведения военнослужащие были доставлены десантными кораблями флота.
Staunton, October 1 – Vladimir Putin has adopted a very risk approach in Syria: One misstep there and he will alienate most of the Muslim world, and the possibility he may dispatch ground troops once it becomes obvious that airstrikes alone won’t be enough could cost him most of his support at home, according to Russian experts.
Indeed, in the opinion of one of those surveyed by the URA.ru news agency , sending Russian ground troops to Syria not only would raise the specter of a new Afghan war but would cut Putin’s rating in the polls from its current 86 percent to 14 percent almost overnight.
That places a serious constraint on the Kremlin leader’s freedom of action there, the experts say, and means that the West is quite prepared to allow Russia to act in ways that will increase the number of Moscow’s enemies in the world while reducing public support for Putin and his policies among Russians.
The experts surveyed by the three URA.ru journalists were unanimous on three points: Moscow could easily make enemies for itself by this campaign, airstrikes won’t be enough and there will be pressure for ground troops first as guards of airbases and later for other uses, and the Syrian war will cause problems for Putin at home if he sends Russian ground troops in.
A serving officer in Russia’s Central Military District speaking on conditions of anonymity said that airstrikes will not be enough and that ground troops will soon become involved in order to guard the airbases Russia will need to carry out even a limited air campaign. That in turn will result in losses in much the same way that the Afghan war did at the beginning.
Veronika Marchenko, head of the Mother’s Right Foundation, says that she hopes that Moscow’s experience in Afghanistan has taught the Russian government something but that she fears that draftees may be used in Syria, despite their lack of training and chances for success and despite the impact of their service on Russians at home.
After all, the Russian government has shown itself quite prepared to ignore its own laws and directives, she continues. It used draftees not only in Afghanistan but also in both Chechen wars.
Konstantin Kalachev, head of Moscow’s Political Experts Group, says that “’a second Afghanistan’ is possible if Russian forces are used in ground operations,” something no officials are yet talking about but that will be necessary because airpower alone will not break ISIS whatever anyone thinks.
Moreover, he continues, “it is obvious that the Islamic State is not struggling so much with the Asad regime as with various Sunni groups.” A Russian military presence can serve as “a restraining factor” but a real military presence would be something else: it would convert “the pluses” of the situation into “minuses” almost instantly.
Gleb Kuznetsov, deputy director of the Moscow National Institute for the Development of Contemporary Ideology, agrees, He says that a land operation will ultimately be necessary “since the Armies of Syria and Iraq are not capable of conducting successful military operations against ISIS.”
The American bases in Iraq and those of Russia in Syria “in fact fulfill the role of so call ‘interventionists;’ that is, they demonstrate a presence and provide military-technical help, but ISIS will not be defeated by these groupings. NATO understands this and has no desire to conduct such operations,” Kuznetsov says.
“If then such a [ground] operation will not take place then the only thing we can count on is the stabilization of the Alawite portion of Syria and in the end the cutting out of a Sunni state on the territories of Iraq and Syria.” To achieve more would take enormous numbers of ground forces and involve enormous losses, he continues.
“The West understands this, but does Russia? And how far are we prepared to go in our support of Assad?” he asks.
Leonid Radzikhovsky, a member of the Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society, says that Russia’s actions in Syria risk costing it enormous support in the region and costing Putin the enormous support he currently enjoys at home.
Saudi Arabia has already spoken out against Russia’s involvement because it does not want to see Shiite Iran gain stature as a result, Radzikhovsky continues. If Russia becomes more involved, it will find itself on one side of “an alien religious war,” something which will have far-reaching consequences.
Moscow’s policy must be “equidistant from both sides of the conflict,” he argues. “If Russia supports one of the sides, it will gain a mortal enemy in Saudi Arabia and undermine relations with Turkey and other Muslim countries. And it could easily face terrorist acts at home.
In Radzikhovsky’s view, it would be “pure insanity” to send ground troops to Syria. Such a step would result in a situation in which Putin’s 86 percent support would decline to 14 percent overnight.
Konstantin Baksheyev, a political consultant, says the only way forward is for Russia and the United States to resume a dialogue something that will inevitably be difficult given the tensions of the last two years. In Syria, he says, “Russia and the US are now formally allies.” But they could become “enemies depending on the actions of the sides.”
Radzikhovsky says however that Moscow’s demand that the US end flights over Syria is hardly likely to promote cooperation. “It would be difficult to demand an analogous step from Russia” and thus it is “unwise to speak to Obama in such terms if the goal is an improvement in relations.”
But according to the anonymous military expert, the current situation is “dangerous not only for Russia but also for the US. ‘they think that these guys from ISIS are playing on their side,” but they forget how quickly such people can turn. They should remember what happened in New York and Washington on September 11, 2001.
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 USA TODAY |
Syrian forces begin ground offensive backed by Russia air and sea power
Washington Post BEIRUT — Russian missiles fired from Caspian Sea warships traveled more than 900 miles to strike targets in Syria on Wednesday as Syrian government forces opened a ground offensive into areas that include rebel factions, officials said. The ... Russian warships target Islamic State in SyriaUSA TODAY Escalating Syria Attack, Russia Fires Missiles From WarshipsNew York Times Russian Warships Hit IS Targets in SyriaVoice of America Wall Street Journal -BBC News -Reuters all 1,583 news articles » |
As Clinton Campaigns, Complications With Her Old Boss Ariseby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
President Barack Obama seemed to call Hillary Rodham Clinton's idea of a no-fly zone in Syria "half-baked." Clinton described the president's immigration strategy as "harsh and aggressive." And as Obama tries to rally Democrats around the chief economic proposal of his second term, the party's presidential front-runner stayed conspicuously silent. As Clinton looks for ways to distinguish her ideas from those of her former boss, the relationship between the man in the White House and the woman who hopes to replace him has grown increasingly complicated. No issue presents more potential for friction than trade. For months, Clinton has resisted weighing in on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the sweeping trade deal that has divided the Democratic base. The completion of the negotiations this week means she'll soon be forced to choose between one of the top legacy items of her former boss or labor unions, environmentalists and other liberal constituencies that oppose the deal. Clinton promises to "definitely have a position soon." "I'm going to be diving into that tonight. I'm going to be talking to people. They're getting me all the information they can gather so I can make a timely decision," Clinton said Tuesday as she toured a farmer's market in Davenport, Iowa. The awkward dynamic isn't a surprise: Both Clinton's campaign and the Obama administration have always said the time would come when the candidate would outline her own policies and deliver criticisms, both implied and direct, of the president. "I am not running for my husband's third term or President Obama's third term," Clinton told voters in Davenport, repeating an oft-used line from her stump speech. "I'm running for my first term." While she frequently commends the president, Clinton has been offering critiques of his policies more and more. Native Americans, farmers, ranchers and cowboys gather outside the Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, during a 'Reject and Protect' rally to protest against the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline, April 22, 2014. (Photo: Diaa Bekheet) Keystone XL Last month, she came out against the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, while the administration remains undecided. In August, she said Obama's decision to approve offshore drilling in the Arctic wasn't "worth the risk" to the environment. And she's subtly resurrected her 2008 primary attack of Obama's approach to world affairs, taking a more hawkish stance toward Russia, Syria and Iran. On both immigration and gun control, she's vowed to use her executive power to do more than the president, implying that Obama's actions have not gone quite far enough. "I'm not going to be breaking up families. And I think that is one of the differences," she said of Obama's deportation policy earlier this week. "But I totally understand why the Obama administration felt as though they did what they did under the circumstances." Campaign veterans in the White House say the impact of Clinton's one-upping is minor and dismiss some of Clinton's proposals as routine campaign fodder. Candidates use policy plans to declare their priorities. Worries over practical implementation come later. But trade falls into a different category. If Clinton opposes Obama's big deal, she could undermine his arguments just as the White House is in the final stretch of a deal years in the making. With Clinton's main challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, calling the accord "disastrous," Obama may be in the uncomfortable position of watching a Democratic debate next week in which none of the major candidates is willing to defend the deal. Clinton aides know she must tread lightly when it comes to criticizing the president, given that much of her strategy relies on the still-loyal coalition of African-Americans, Latinos, women and younger voters that twice elected Obama. But at the same time, they say she must find ways to distinguish herself — and undercut Republican attacks that Clinton would simply be a third Obama term. Many of Clinton's top aides joined her campaign from the White House and the two staffs remain in frequent communication. No-fly zone over Syria Before Clinton publicly announced her opposition to the Keystone pipeline and gun proposals, campaign staff alerted the White House to her plans. And after Obama appeared to deride her proposal for a no-fly zone over Syria as "half-baked" in a press conference last week, aides called to make sure Clinton understood the criticism wasn't aimed at her, according to a senior White House official who would not be named discussing private conversations. The White House doesn't deny Clinton's new distance has at times created awkwardness for the president. On immigration, Clinton's promise to go further than Obama in using executive authority to ease the threat of deportation for immigrants living in the U.S. directly contradicts Obama's assertion that he's done all he can under the law. Syrian-Americans protest Russian intervention in Syria outside a Russian consular office in Santa Monica, California, United States, October 6, 2015. President Barack Obama seemed to call Hillary Rodham Clinton's idea of a no-fly zone in Syria "half-baked." Clinton described the president's immigration strategy as "harsh and aggressive." And as Obama tries to rally Democrats around the chief economic proposal of his second term, the party's presidential front-runner stayed conspicuously silent. As Clinton looks for ways to distinguish her ideas from those of her former boss, the relationship between the man in the White House and the woman who hopes to replace him has grown increasingly complicated. No issue presents more potential for friction than trade. Trans-Pacific Partnership For months, Clinton has resisted weighing in on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the sweeping trade deal that has divided the Democratic base. The completion of the negotiations this week means she'll soon be forced to choose between one of the top legacy items of her former boss or labor unions, environmentalists and other liberal constituencies that oppose the deal. Clinton promises to "definitely have a position soon." "I'm going to be diving into that tonight. I'm going to be talking to people. They're getting me all the information they can gather so I can make a timely decision," Clinton said Tuesday as she toured a farmer's market in Davenport, Iowa. The awkward dynamic isn't a surprise: Both Clinton's campaign and the Obama administration have always said the time would come when the candidate would outline her own policies and deliver criticisms, both implied and direct, of the president. "I am not running for my husband's third term or President Obama's third term," Clinton told voters in Davenport, repeating an oft-used line from her stump speech. "I'm running for my first term." While she frequently commends the president, Clinton has been offering critiques of his policies more and more. Last month, she came out against the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, while the administration remains undecided. In August, she said Obama's decision to approve offshore drilling in the Arctic wasn't "worth the risk" to the environment. And she's subtly resurrected her 2008 primary attack of Obama's approach to world affairs, taking a more hawkish stance toward Russia, Syria and Iran. Immigration and gun control On both immigration and gun control, she's vowed to use her executive power to do more than the president, implying that Obama's actions have not gone quite far enough. "I'm not going to be breaking up families. And I think that is one of the differences," she said of Obama's deportation policy earlier this week. "But I totally understand why the Obama administration felt as though they did what they did under the circumstances." Campaign veterans in the White House say the impact of Clinton's one-upping is minor and dismiss some of Clinton's proposals as routine campaign fodder. Candidates use policy plans to declare their priorities. Worries over practical implementation come later. But trade falls into a different category. If Clinton opposes Obama's big deal, she could undermine his arguments just as the White House is in the final stretch of a deal years in the making. Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, right, waves to the crowd after being presented with a shirt by Liberty President Jerry Falwell Jr., left, during a visit at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia, Sept. 14, 2015. With Clinton's main challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, calling the accord "disastrous," Obama may be in the uncomfortable position of watching a Democratic debate next week in which none of the major candidates is willing to defend the deal. Clinton aides know she must tread lightly when it comes to criticizing the president, given that much of her strategy relies on the still-loyal coalition of African-Americans, Latinos, women and younger voters that twice elected Obama. But at the same time, they say she must find ways to distinguish herself — and undercut Republican attacks that Clinton would simply be a third Obama term. Many of Clinton's top aides joined her campaign from the White House and the two staffs remain in frequent communication. Before Clinton publicly announced her opposition to the Keystone pipeline and gun proposals, campaign staff alerted the White House to her plans. And after Obama appeared to deride her proposal for a no-fly zone over Syria as "half-baked" in a press conference last week, aides called to make sure Clinton understood the criticism wasn't aimed at her, according to a senior White House official who would not be named discussing private conversations. The White House doesn't deny Clinton's new distance has at times created awkwardness for the president. On immigration, Clinton's promise to go further than Obama in using executive authority to ease the threat of deportation for immigrants living in the U.S. directly contradicts Obama's assertion that he's done all he can under the law. Similarly on gun control, just days after an exasperated Obama declared "this is not something I can do by myself," Clinton seemed to think otherwise. On Monday, she promised to close the so-called "gun-show loophole" through executive action. White House spokesman Josh Earnest was quickly asked by reporters whether Obama would beat her to it. Earnest said the White House was looking into its options.
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По его словам, Россия заранее согласовала с партнерами удары из юго-западной части Каспийского моря по объектам террористов.
Russian warships launch missiles, destined for targets in Syria, from warships
in the Caspian Sea, more than 900 miles away. Defence minister Sergei Shoigu said four warships launched at least 26 missiles at Islamic State targets. President Bashar al-Assad’s have recently launched a ground offensive in central Syria backed by Russian airstrikes, the first time Assad’s forces have co-ordinated with the Russian air offensive
Continue reading...in the Caspian Sea, more than 900 miles away. Defence minister Sergei Shoigu said four warships launched at least 26 missiles at Islamic State targets. President Bashar al-Assad’s have recently launched a ground offensive in central Syria backed by Russian airstrikes, the first time Assad’s forces have co-ordinated with the Russian air offensive
Russia has now violated Turkish airspace on two separate occasions, according to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
NATO’s North Atlantic Council said in a statement after a Monday meeting that the Russian actions against Turkey, a NATO member, posed “extreme danger”:
Russian military actions have reached a more dangerous level with the recent violations of Turkish airspace on 3 October and 4 October by Russian Air Force SU-30 and SU-24 aircraft in the Hatay region. The aircraft in question entered Turkish airspace despite Turkish authorities’ clear, timely and repeated warnings. In accordance with NATO practice, Turkish fighter aircraft responded to these incursions by closing to identify the intruder, after which the Russian planes departed Turkish airspace.Allies strongly protest these violations of Turkish sovereign airspace, and condemn these incursions into and violations of NATO airspace. Allies also note the extreme danger of such irresponsible behavior. They call on the Russian Federation to cease and desist, and immediately explain these violations.
Analysts say Russia’s recent deployment of fighter jets, troops, and other equipment to Syria allows the Kremlin to challenge NATO on another front in the Middle East. President Vladimir Putin has already led the invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, former Soviet countries that the United States once planned to integrate into NATO.
Russian officials have also said that their “volunteer” forces might soon begin operations in Syria—the same description the Kremlin used for troops fighting in eastern Ukraine. More than 8,000 people have died in the conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists.
The post Russia Violates Turkish Airspace Again in Direct Challenge to NATO appeared first onWashington Free Beacon.
The skies over Syria are increasingly crowded and increasingly dangerous. The air forces of multiple countries - including Russia - are on the attack.
The post Syria’s skies crowded with multiple air forces appeared first on In Homeland Security.
 Breitbart News |
US Concludes Russia Targeting CIA-Backed Syrian Rebels
Breitbart News U.S. officials declared on Monday that they are convinced Russian warplanes were deliberately targeting CIA-backed Syrian rebels. The Wall Street Journal reports that the grim assessment of intelligence officials and commanders on the ground has ... Russian Airstrikes In Syria Hit CIA-Trained Rebel Weapons DepotInternational Business Times Syrian Rebels Face Coordinated Ground Attacks and Russian AirstrikesVICE News all 1,277 news articles » |
The top US commander in Afghanistan says he has provided the White House courses of action" to keep more US forces there beyond 2016
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BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) - Several Eastern European countries are cooperating on controlling the flow of migrants at the external borders of the European Union - a program a top Hungarian official said Tuesday could set an example for the rest of the 28-nation bloc.
Zsolt Nemeth, head of the Hungarian ...
ROME (AP) - Defense Secretary Ash Carter says the Defense Department "deeply regrets the loss of innocent lives" from a U.S. military airstrike on a hospital in Afghanistan.
Responding to what officials said was an Afghan request, a U.S. gunship on Saturday fired on a medical clinic run by Doctors ...
As Russia’s military build-up in Syria moved forward, President Vladimir Putin addressed the 70thmeeting of the United Nations General Assembly and held bilateral talks with President Barack Obama. On September 30, Putin received authority from the Russian Federation Council to send his forces into action and consequently ordered the Russian Federation’s first “out-of-area operation” (that is, outside the former Soviet Union) to commence. Russian airstrikes in support of the Syrian regime prepare the way for an offensive involving ground forces from Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. The nature of the Russian force grouping, its deployment and early use against a variety of targets affords insight into how the Kremlin’s strategy is unfolding. Further clues as to how this will develop were in evidence during the strategic-operational military exercise Tsentr 2015 (see EDM, September 22), while the role of Russian military intelligence will be a critical element in targeting and in determining the future shape of the campaign (RIA Novosti, September 30).
During a three-week period, Moscow ordered the deployment to Latakia of a regiment sized force grouping from the Air Force component of the newly created Aerospace Forces (Vozdushno Kosmicheskikh Sil—VKS). These air movements occurred under the cover of the Tsentr 2015 exercise, and they mixed squadrons of Su-24Ms and Su-25SMs (ground attack) with multi-role Su-30SMs and Su-34s, as well as Mi-8s and Mi-24 attack helicopters. On September 18, for instance, four Su-30SMs were transferred from their base in Domna (Chita) to Mozdok, and then accompanied by a heavy transporter, which flew through the airspace of Azerbaijan, Iran and Iraq before reaching Latakia. In late September, six Su-34s arrived via the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq, completing the first stage of the military build-up, which was accompanied by sending sophisticated surface-to-air missiles (SAM) and a battalion of Naval Infantry for base protection. The force grouping mixes tried-and-tested platforms such as Su-24Ms and Su-25SMs with state-of-the-art Su-34s. According to the defense ministry, the latter will offer increased precision strike capability, but these platforms will also likely be tested during forthcoming operations (Armstrade.org, October 1).
In Tsentr 2015, the VKS assembled an aviation grouping of 150 bombers and fighter aircraft, which was singled out for praise by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (Mil.ru, September 29; see EDM, September 22). It contained a significantly different force mix and operated on a massive scale. Su-24s and Su-25s were used to attack enemy command and control, and to disable artillery firing positions. Su-27s cleared the airspace of enemy aircraft ahead of the arrival Tu-22M3 strategic bombers to attack various outposts. Mi-35 attack helicopters were involved in preparing the insertion of Ground Forces, followed by wave attacks from Su-34s. The rehearsed air campaign relied heavily on precision strike and reconnaissance supplied by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The Russian air campaign in the exercise also featured automated command and control, and practiced closely integrating ground offensives with close air support. The coup de grace in the exercise was administered by Tu-22M3s flying sorties against “illegal armed groups” and supply depots, such as ammunition dumps (Krasnaya Zvezda, October 1). Based upon VKS activities during Tsentr 2015 and defense ministry claims of a coming intensification of the air operations in Syria, it is likely the worst of the airstrikes against a wide range of “terrorist” targets in Syria still lies ahead.
Indeed, early reports of the targeting in the Russian airstrikes seemed to indicate that under the umbrella of going after Islamic State (IS) and “terrorist groups,” the VKS targets other rebel groupings. This makes sense from Moscow’s perspective, as the air campaign seems designed to degrade opposition forces and de facto strengthen the Syrian regime. These operations relied on using Su-24Ms and Su-25SMs in classical Soviet/Russian airpower operations seen in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Georgia. Of course, some differences are also apparent, such as the experimentation with precision-guided munitions (PGM), including BetAB-500 bunker buster bombs delivered by Su-34s (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, October 4).
Although the groups targeted by the Russian air campaign is wider than an anti-IS operation, the exact requirements of target selection seems guided by Russian military intelligence (Glavnoye Razvedyvatel’noye Upravleniye—GRU), relying heavily upon reconnaissance gathered from extensive use of UAVs. The intelligence coordination center opened in Baghdad brings together Russia, Syria, Iran and Iraq, but remains in its infancy; Moscow would be reluctant to rely solely on intelligence offered by its coalition partners. Indeed, it is inconceivable that the Russian military would engage in operations without extensive preparation of the battlefield and accompanied by GRU “eyes and ears” on the ground (Moskovskiy Komsomolets, October 1).
On October 4, Su-24s and Su-34s attacked targets using precision-guided Kh-29L missiles. The various Russian platforms in use over Syria have also used a mixture of PGMs, cluster bombs and dumb bombs: these include the FAB-250 and FAB-500. Some sources suggest the Air Force will also use FAB-1000 and FAB-1500 bombs. Russian airpower specialists suggest that this early phase of the air campaign is only a rehearsal for its later stages (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, October 4; Moskovskiy Komsomolets, October 2).
Putin’s intervention in Syria does not rely solely upon airpower. One key aspect of this early phase of the operation is to prepare the battlefield for the ground offensive that will be launched by Syrian and Iranian military units alongside Hezbollah; it is also likely to include other proxies such as “volunteers” drawn to the conflict. The ground forces element is the main difference between the Russian spearheaded coalition and its Western counterpart, and although open to question as to its success, it will certainly change the situation on the ground. It is likely that the Russian air campaign will go through an evolutionary process, changing according to battle damage assessments (BDA) and following ground offensives. The Russian military media offers various estimations of the timescale of the air operation, at around three or four months, but this seems optimistic. The Kremlin clearly wants to greatly degrade the rebel opposition to President Bashar al Assad’s regime, perhaps as a precursor to a wider ground offensive in territories held by the Islamic State (Vedomosti, October 1,3; Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, September 30).
While experts and commentators debate Putin’s motives for authorizing the Russian military operation, two points must surely concentrate the minds of policy planners in the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): First, Putin forged a diplomatic-military coalition under the noses of the anti-IS coalition, deployed military assets, and caught Western governments by surprise—again. And second, the Russian leader has shown a willingness to risk confrontation with the US, first in Crimea and now in Syria.
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Iran and Russia have been plotting for months on military intervention in Syria to bolster President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to senior regional officials.
A top Iranian general, Major General Qassem Soleimani, met with Russian leaders in Moscow in July to discuss how Iran and Russia could together help provide Assad’s regime with military aid as the civil war wages in Syria.
Reuters reported:
Soleimani is the commander of the Quds Force, the elite extra-territorial special forces arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Senior regional sources say he has already been overseeing ground operations against insurgents in Syria and is now at the heart of planning for the new Russian- and Iranian-backed offensive.
During his visit to Moscow, Soleimani mapped out the Syrian rebel advances against Assad in the region, highlighting the need for an Iranian-Russian alliance rallying in support of Assad.
“Soleimani put the map of Syria on the table,” a senior regional official said. “The Russians were very alarmed, and felt matters were in steep decline and that there were real dangers to the regime. The Iranians assured them there is still the possibility to reclaim the initiative. At that time, Soleimani played a role in assuring them that we haven’t lost all the cards.”
Soleimani was allegedly directed by Khamenei to spearhead the Iranian side of the military intervention and travel to Moscow and Syria to establish the details.
Russia and Iran began plotting military action in Syria months before the July meeting, according to three senior regional officials.
Russian warplanes started conducting airstrikes in Syria last week, targeting areas that aren’t controlled by the Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIL or ISIS) despite assurances from Moscow that the increased military activity is meant to combat the terrorist group. U.S. officials believe that Russia is specifically targeting CIA-backed Syrian rebels in a direct challenge to the Obama administration Syria policy.
Meanwhile, Iranian special forces are on the ground Syria. According to sources, hundreds of Iranian troops have traveled to Syria in recent weeks to conduct ground operations. One of the senior regional officials said that 3,000 Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters have also mobilized in the region, and Syrian troops are also ready for battle.
The post Iran Plotted With Russia for Months on Military Intervention in Syria appeared first onWashington Free Beacon.
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Oct. 6, 2015
Lt Col Mark Visger submits report with recommendations on whether Sgt Bowe Bergdahl, who has been charged with desertion and misbehavior before the enemy, should face court-material for leaving post in Afghanistan six years ago; Gen Robert Abrams, commanding general of Army Forces Command, will decide if case will go to court-martial.Oct. 6, 2015
Editorial criticizes United States military response to American airstrike on Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan; questions how hospital became target in first place; calls for immediate reassessment of military's rules of engagement geared toward minimizing civilian casualties.
69689
Texas: Recommendation Made on Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl Who Left Post
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
An Army officer’s recommendation on whether Sergeant Bergdahl should face a court-martial for leaving his post in Afghanistan six years ago will remain secret for now.
October 6, 2015, Tuesday
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The absence of roads and railways connecting the strategically positioned Kamchatka peninsula, in the Russian Far East, with the rest of the country is undermining Russian national security and reducing Moscow’s ability to project power into the Pacific region, according to Dmitry Verkhoturov. Building either an all-weather highway or even a single-track rail line will be enormously expensive, the Russian security analyst says. But doing so and thus overcoming this chokepoint is every bit as important—if perhaps not as glamorous—to the defense and enhancement of Russian power as are new generations of planes, ships and nuclear weapons, he argues (APN, October 1).
Compared with Soviet times, Russia’s Pacific Fleet is extremely weak, Verkhoturov says. Its ships are aging, and there are fewer than half as many as there were during the Cold War. As a result, with the exception of the Kamchatka Flotilla, the rest of the fleet in the event of war would be capable only of defensive actions and coastal defense. The United States and Japan could “bottle up” almost all of Russia’s other ships and thus open the way to a Russian defeat.
But, Verkhoturov continues, “the problem of the development of the Pacific Fleet consists not only and not so much in the quantity and quality of ships as in the fact that there are limited possibilities in the Far East for basing the fleet in a strategically useful way. Comparatively few suitable harbors exist because “practically all of them freeze for several months” every winter. Indeed, he writes, “in the entire Far East, there is only one harbor that does not freeze”—at least not to the point that icebreakers would not be able to keep it open for shipping relatively easily—and that is the underdeveloped Avacha Bay, on the southeastern edge of the Kamchatka peninsula.
Viewed strategically, it is the best base for Russia’s Pacific Fleet because it has direct access to the Pacific and is “far from the straits controlled by probable opponents and their hostile naval bases.” But it has one serious shortcoming, Verkhoturov says, which Moscow can and must redress. Kamchatka does not have ground transportation links to the mainland and thus lacks the industrial and shoreline infrastructure necessary for the fleet to function.
“Without roads to Kamchatka,” the utility of Russia’s Pacific Fleet is severely undermined. First of all, the absence of such infrastructure restricts the fleet to coastal defense. But this also means that a far greater percentage of the ships will be under repair at any one time than would be the case were Russia to have a more robust set of facilities in the Far East. Consequently, the real order of battle will remain far smaller than the nominal one, in some cases more than 50 percent less.
As the military analyst notes, “A road to Kamchatka is acquiring extraordinary strategic significance, comparable with the development and production of the latest generation of strategic arms.” But can Moscow afford to build such a road? The answer, Verkhoturov argues, is that it cannot afford not to, however difficult and expensive it would be.
Building such ground links from the mainland into Kamchatka would be “a difficult task,” all the more so because “in this part of Russia roads in general are a great rarity.” Small road networks were built around Magadan and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatksy, but they are not connected. To tie them together would require building a road through approximately 2,500 kilometers of unpopulated wilderness. And if Moscow wanted to link a base on Avacha Bay to the mainland’s rail network, that would require building a line of 3,670 kilometers.
Building such long road and rail corridors anywhere in Russia would be “a difficult task,” he says; but given conditions in the Russian Far East, it would be especially difficult and expensive. He estimates that the road would cost approximately 100 billion rubles ($1.6 billion), and the rail line—403.7 billion rubles ($6.5 billion). Together, they would cost the astronomical sum of half a trillion rubles (more than $8 billion).
Such projects, of course, would not only make possible the development of the naval base in Avacha Bay but would also have collateral benefits: boosting investment in the entire far eastern region of the country, promoting growth along the highway and rail line, and becoming the basis for the industrial development of Kamchatka. This last advantage could possibly even allow that distant region to challenge the current dominance of Vladivostok in the Russian Far East (APN, October 1).
Verkhoturov’s article is noteworthy for three reasons: First, it suggests that some in Moscow are now planning for the projection of Russian power in the Pacific region, something few people in the West have paid much attention to and which puts Moscow on a collision course with Beijing and Tokyo.
Second, it suggests that Vladimir Putin may be prepared to return to the Soviet-era practice of “gigantic” construction projects as the chief means of inter-regional transfer of resources, an approach that Mikhail Gorbachev rejected and that has been largely off the table since then.
And third, it unintentionally highlights the extreme weakness of Moscow’s position in the Far East, a weakness Putin has done little to address. The lack of ground transportation infrastructure will make it increasingly difficult for Russia to hold the region given the resurgence of China.
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Islamic State Published Address of Navy SEAL Who Killed Osama Bin Laden by Morgan Chalfant
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