Syria: Russian Backed Advance Stalled
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October 27, 2015: The Russian supported government forces went on the offensive in October and for a week or so seemed to make some progress. The Russian air strikes, guided by Syrian ground controllers, were accurate and allowed the Syrian/Lebanese/Iranian forces to advance. But by mid-October the advance had stalled. There were several reasons for this. First, the rebels were suddenly getting a lot more recruits as many Syrians who were not keen on fighting other Syrians were very eager to “fight the Russians.” Even though there were no (or very few) Russian troops on the ground involved in these operations there were a lot of foreign fighters (mostly recruited, trained, armed and managed by Iran). These included Lebanese from Hezbollah plus Iraqi, Iranian, Afghan and other Shia persuaded (by Iranian cash and other favors) to volunteer for dangerous duty in Shia militias. There were Russians fighting FOR the rebels, but these were mostly Chechens working for ISIL.
The rebels quickly adapted to the Russian tactics by retreating from areas to be bombed and falling back when the Syrian ground forces advanced. Then the rebels came back at night to often regain what had been lost the previous day. This tactic was helped by the sudden arrival of additional TOW anti-tank missiles. These first showed up in early 2014 used by some of the more moderate rebels. Such American arms aid has long been limited because of fears that high-tech weapons would fall into the hands of Islamic terrorist groups and later be used for terror attacks against Westerners. With the arrival of the Russians the U.S. shipped lots (more than a hundred) TOW missiles and this led to the advancing Syrian forces losing up to ten armored vehicles a day. Some of these TOW missiles were delivered by air drop to rebel units in the way of the Syrian advance. Other types of ammunition were also air dropped. Because of a prior arrangement Russian aircraft or anti-aircraft systems did not fire on the U.S. transports.
Russia is also learning the hard way how difficult it is to maintain modern warplanes in the sand and dust of the Middle East. Russia knew about this problem because for decades it had sold military aircraft to countries (including Syria) in the region. But it turned out that there were a lot of (often minor) modifications Syrian maintainers made to their Russian aircraft to keep them operational in this environment. Russian maintainers are working overtime to adapt to all this. Despite that Russia is still getting several sorties a day out of many of the fifty or so warplanes it has in Syria. On some days there are nearly a hundred air strikes. The 50 or so Russian aircraft in Syria consist of Su-34 and Su-30 fighter-bombers, Su-24M bombers and Su-25 ground attack aircraft as well as about a dozen armed helicopters. There are also many transport helicopters.
The Russians have brought in UAVs and electronic monitoring equipment and have a lot better sense of where the best targets are. This has caused a lot of damage to the rebels who find their supply facilities and other support operations being bombed. Russian air strikes in Syria are believed to have left nearly 500 dead so far most (about 70 percent) of them Syrian rebels. Russia officially says it is there to fight ISIL but most of the targets are non-ISIL rebels who have been taking a lot of territory from the Assad government this year. The Russian air strikes have killed at least one senior al Qaeda leader and a senior commander of the FSA (the largest secular rebel group). Both FSA and al Qaeda are hostile to ISIL but for Russia these two groups are a major threat to the Syrian government, which has long been a Russian ally. Russian warplanes are carrying out 50-60 air strikes a day. That is far more than the U.S. led air coalition.
Russia has also made a major effort to help rebuild what is left of the Syrian Air Force, which has suffered enormous (over 70 percent) losses since 2011. Russia has always provided tech and material (spare parts) support for this largely Russian fleet of warplanes and helicopters but not enough for the Syrians to keep more than 30 percent of the 370 aircraft and helicopters operational. The surge of Russian support will mean the Syrian Air Force can be rebuilt and be even more active.
So far the American led air coalition has carried out nearly 7,800 air strikes (64 percent in Iraq and the rest in Syria). The growing number of Syrian and Russian air strikes do not follow the restrictive American ROE (Rules of Engagement) and have been more effective. There are accusations from within the American intelligence community that political leaders are hiding the truth about how the restrictive ROE are crippling the air offensive against ISIL in Iraq and Syria. Another reason for the greater success of Syrian and Russian air strikes is that they have air controllers on the ground to make sure the right target is hit. The American political leadership forbids putting American air controllers on the ground despite the fact that American military commanders believe that the chances of these U.S. troops getting killed or captured is an acceptable risk because it would mean more effective air strikes. Currently the American ROE is obsessed with avoiding any civilian losses from air strikes and ISIL exploits this by regularly using human shields. The locals realize this is counterproductive because the longer ISIL remains operational the more death and misery they bring to the millions of civilians they control.
The Russian supported offensive was concentrating on non-ISIL rebels around Aleppo and in nearby Idlib province. The UN reports that this fighting has driven over 120,000 additional refugees to UN facilities and that has included a growing number of Islamic terrorists who cause all manner of problems in the refugee camps. Some areas around Aleppo were captured by the advancing Syrian forces and held. In addition some key roads in Idlib province were cleared of rebels. Around Aleppo some Russian air strikes are hitting ISIL targets because ISIL is cooperating (and often competing) with other Islamic terrorist rebel groups to take the city. This would have great symbolic value. Otherwise Aleppo is mainly a burden because most of the city center is damaged or destroyed by years of fighting. ISIL is now heavily involved in Aleppo because these areas are close to the Turkishborder and that is how smugglers get ISIL supplies across the border and into the hands of ISIL.
The newly captured areas require constant patrolling to keep the rebels out and this is where the newly arrived Russians UAVs have come in handy. To help move the ground offensive forward Russia has sent some of its commandos to Syria. Some of these Russians are coming from months of recent service in eastern Ukraine. Exactly how these will be used is unclear but Iran already has some special operations troops in Syria and they appear to serve mainly for collecting intelligence and attacking key rebel leaders (not always successfully). Iran is providing a lot of trainers, combat advisors and, judging from the number of dead Iranian officers (whose families back in Iran do not hide their grief or keep it out of the media) the Iranians are deeply involved in supervising these offensive operations.
Cuban troops have been reported in Syria, brought in to help train and assist Syrian troops. Some of the Cubans are believed to be special operations (commando) forces. Cuba, Russia and Syria deny the presence of Cuban troops in Syria.
The Russian air strikes had already played a key role in halting rebel advances into the twenty percent of Syria that the Assad forces control. Thus most of the recent Russian air strikes are against targets on the border of Latakia province (where the Syrian ports are) and inside adjacent Hama and Idlib provinces.
This 20 percent of the country is where the pro-Assad population lives and must be held for the Assad clan to retain any legitimacy as the government of Syria. The coastal areas are particularly important because Russia is pouring in military and other supplies via the Assad controlled ports. The roads from there to Damascus and south to the Israeli and Jordan borders must be kept open and the military supplies on these ships helps make that happen.
Russia also approached some rebel groups to propose joint operations against ISIL. These offers all appear to have been rejected. Russia is being depicted as a “foreign invader.” This is a popular attitude in the Middle East. It was used to great effect when Russia invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s and then the U.S. and Britain invaded Iraq in 2003. The Russian aerial and electronic intelligence capabilities plus the informant networks of the Assads has provided the Russians with more information on rebel operations than even the West and neighboring Moslem states have been able to obtain. This enables Russia to make offers like this with some prospects of success. Russia is now able to quickly find out about key rebel casualties (especially the deaths of senior leaders) that the rebels would rather keep quiet (to soften the effect on morale). Russia would like Iran to be more secretive about Iranian generals getting killed in Syria. Six have died there since 2013 and several of those deaths were recent. Syria is a much more dangerous place for Iranian military advisors as only one Iranian general has been killed in Iraq so far.
Despite previously negotiated “deconfliction” agreements with Russia over use of Syrian air space by Israeli and Russian aircraft the agreement proved incapable of dealing with the growing number of Iranian and Russian UAVs operating over Syria. When any of these UAVs get too close to the Israeli (or Turkish) border there is the risk of it getting shot down. This has caused some tension with the Russians as UAVs were apparently not covered in the existing agreements. This is a problem because Russia is working with Iran, which has regularly vowed to destroy Israel and has no agreements with Israel at all. Russia does not want to get dragged into a fight with Israel because of Iranian misbehavior but the Iranians are apparently pressuring the Russians to help “defend” Iranian UAVs operating along the Israeli border. Despite this issue Israel has basically agreed to tolerate Russia (and their Iranian ally) defeating the Syrian rebels and keeping the Assads in power. Israel never liked the Assads but they were able to work with them. At the moment ISIL appears to be the likely winner of a civil war if there is no outside interference. Everyone agrees ISIL control of Syria is the worst outcome and behaves accordingly.
October 25, 2015: Local witnesses said that ISIL destroyed three columns of an ancient temple in central Syria (near Palmyra) with explosives. But first ISIL tied condemned men to each of the columns to execute them (for reasons unknown) along with destroying the ancient “un-Islamic” structure. ISIL took this Syrian site (in Homs province) back in May and since August has been destroying ancient ruins. This was an ancient oasis city that was largely abandoned a century ago and now people live in nearby villages. Palmyra is a major tourist site and it was long feared that ISIL would destroy ruins. But ISIL is also using the ruins as the backdrop of exotic executions that are very effective Internet based recruiting videos. One current video featured a man being executed by running him over with a tank.
Syrian Kurds accuse Turkey of firing on some of their positions in Syria near the Turkish border. Turkey is currently at war with the PKK (Turkish Kurdish separatists) and believes the PYD (the Syrian Kurdish separatists, currently fighting the Assad government) is often working in cooperation with the PKK. The PYD insists it is concentrating on the war in Syria and merely stays in touch with the PKK. Turkey later confirmed the PYD attack claims. Turkey has made it clear that it does not want the Syrian Kurds taking control of large parts of northern Syria.
October 22, 2015: The U.S. has sent a dozen A-10 ground attack aircraft to Turkey to join the force of F-16s that has been used for air strikes on ISIL in Syria. The A-10C can handle smart bombs and thus stay high enough to avoid ground fire but the A-10s are also designed and equipped for low altitude operations. The decision to send the A-10s was made in response to the arrival of Russian warplanes in Syria.
October 21, 2015: Back in Russia the Russian intervention in Syria is portrayed as part of an effort to curb Islamic terrorism inside Russia and appears to have helped. Some 2,000 radicalized Russian Moslems have gone to Syria to join ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) but local officials in areas where most of these Russian recruits come from (the Caucasus, especially Chechnya) point out that Islamic terrorist activity in the Caucasus has declined this year and reports they have received from local informants indicates that most of those who went off to join ISIL have been killed.
October 19, 2015: Turkey said its warplanes had shot down a Russian UAV that had crossed the border into Turkish air space. Russia denied it had lost a UAV. The Turks reminded Russia that piloted Russian aircraft would be shot down as well.
In Syria Russian warplanes bombed a group of FSA rebels, apparently because this group was equipped with American TOW anti-tank missiles, which had been causing a lot of damage to Syrian armored vehicles. The air strikes also killed a senior FSA leader.
Artillery fire against the Russian base at Latakia left three Russians dead and several other wounded. It is unclear if the fire was mortars, artillery or rockets. Russia later denied that any Russians had been killed in Syria.
Many observers were surprised when Russia moved several dozen warplanes to Syria in August and began bombing Syrian rebels with lots of unguided bombs. Since the 1990s the United States has increasingly used smart (laser or GPS) guided bombs and now over 99 percent of American air strikes use such weapons. Other Western nations also adopted smart bombs. Russia is known to have had such weapons since the 1970s, many of them based on American smart bombs (or fragments) captured in Vietnam. The problem was that Russia never built or used a lot of these weapons. For a long time Russia considered these special weapons for rare special occasions.
October 16, 2015: Russia revealed that it had established a “hotline” agreement with Israel so the two nations could quickly resolve any problems between their respective armed forces over Syria.
October 11, 2015: ISIL released, to the Syrian government, fifty Syrian Christians ISIL had kidnapped last August. It is unclear what this was all about. It may have been ransom since ransom has always been a source of income for ISIL, which has very high expenses (supplies, pay and benefits for key people, bribes, fees and rewards for many services).
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Turkey has acknowledged attacking a Kurdish militia group that has been a U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS, saying fighters had crossed into an off-limits area in Syria. Turkey also says it has attacked ISIS within its own borders.
The attacks underscore the complications the U.S. and its allies face when forming a strategy against the extremist ISIS terrorist group in an area where regional and sectarian conflicts continue to play out.
Discussing Turkey's role in the region and its two strikes on the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, or PYD, in Syria, Turkey's prime minister said, "Turkey has not laid all of its cards on the table yet. The picture will be different when it does so. Everyone should watch its steps," according to Hurriyet Daily News.
From Istanbul, NPR's Peter Kenyon reports:
"Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Turkish television that Ankara had warned the Syrian Kurds known as the PYD that they should not cross west of the Euphrates River — and after the group did so, Turkish jets struck twice at PYD targets."U.S. officials have supported the Kurdish efforts to battle ISIS in northern Syria, though it has tried to be sensitive to Turkish concerns about the group, which has ties to Kurdish militants in Turkey who are considered terrorists by both Ankara and Washington."Turkey is worried that Syrian Kurds will expand and consolidate their area of control near Turkey's border while fighting ISIS."
News of the attacks, which reportedly took place Sunday, comes months after a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Worker's Party, or PKK, unraveled — and just a week before Turkey's national elections.
In recent days, Turkish police and military forces have engaged in a shootout with suspected ISIS fighters and carried out raids against ISIS cells in at least two cities, according to the BBC. This morning, Turkey said it had detained 30 suspected ISIS militants.
Sounding an ominous note, Reuters reports:
"Turkey, a NATO ally and candidate for EU membership, risks sliding into the sort of ethnic and sectarian strife that has torn Iraq and Syria to its south. In the view of some alarmed analysts, Turkey is starting to resemble its neighbors."
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Islamic State militants have killed three captives in Syria's ancient city of Palmyra by tying them to columns and blowing them up, activists say.
The identities of those reportedly killed on Sunday have yet to be given.
But they are thought to be the first to have been killed in that way since the jihadist group seized the ruins in May.
IS has destroyed two 2,000-year-old temples, an arch and funerary towers at Palmyra, one of the most important cultural centres of the ancient world.
The group believes that such structures are idolatrous. The UN cultural agency, Unesco, has condemned the destruction as a war crime.
- Unesco World Heritage site
- Site contains monumental ruins of great city, once one of the most important cultural centres of the ancient world
- Art and architecture, from the 1st and 2nd Centuries, combine Greco-Roman techniques with local traditions and Persian influences
- More than 1,000 columns, a Roman aqueduct and a formidable necropolis of more than 500 tombs made up the archaeological site
- More than 150,000 tourists visited Palmyra every year before the Syrian conflict
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based group that monitors the conflict in Syria, cited local sources in Palmyra as saying that on Sunday IS militants tied three detainees to Roman-era columns and then blew up the structures with explosives.
An activist from Palmyra, Khaled al-Homsi, said IS had yet to tell locals the identities of the three individuals or say why they had been killed.
"There was no-one there to see [the execution]. The columns were destroyed and IS has prevented anyone from heading to the site," he told the AFP news agency.
Another activist, Mohammed al-Ayed, said IS was "doing this for the media attention".
After overrunning the ruins of Palmyra and the adjoining modern town, also known as Tadmur, IS militants used the ancient theatre for the killing of 25 Syrian soldiers.
They also beheaded archaeologist Khaled al-Asaad, who looked after ruins for 40 years, after he reportedly refused to reveal where artefacts had been hidden.
Earlier this week, IS posted images online purportedly showing militants driving a tank over a captured soldier, who it alleged had himself driven over militants.
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Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says the country's Reserve Fund could be exhausted by the end of 2016 if world energy prices remain at current levels.
Speaking to reporters in Moscow on October 27, Siluanov said the budget shortfall for 2015 is expected to be 2.6 trillion rubles ($41 billion). He predicted the budget shortfall for 2016 at 900 billion rubles if oil prices remain around $45 per barrel and a ruble exchange rate of 62 rubles to the dollar.
"This means that 2016 is the last year when we are able to spend our reserves in this way," he added. "After that, we will not have such resources."
Siluanov said that as a result of the dwindling reserves, "the matter of consolidating the budget must be the No. 1 task on our agenda."
The Russian economy has been hit hard by sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and other countries because of Moscow's 2014 annexation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea and its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.
In addition, Moscow has spent billions on projects such as the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the reconstruction of Crimea, and its military campaign in Syria.
Based on reporting by Dozhd TV and TASS
Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news.
IRAQ and SYRIA
The Pentagon is looking into a number of options to strengthen the military campaign against ISIS, including embedding some US forces with Iraqi troops, officials say. [The Hill’s Kristina Wong] The proposed measures come amid mounting White House dissatisfaction with progress against the Islamic State. [Washington Post’s Missy Ryan and Greg Jaffe]
Representatives of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) did not visit Moscow, spokesmen from four factions fighting under the FSA banner told Reuters today. The comments come in response to reports by Russian media that such visits had taken place.
The global left’s response to Russia’s bombing of medical facilities in Syria has been muted compared to the response to the US bombing of the MSF hospital in Kunduz, observes Sam Charles Hamad. [The Daily Beast]
At least 120,000 people have been displaced in Syria over the past month due to fighting, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said. [Al Jazeera] Kareem Fahim and Maher Samaan explore the escalating humanitarian crisis gripping Syria. [New York Times]
ISIS has executed three captives in Palmyra by tying them to an ancient building and detonating it, reports the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. [CNN]
Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair’s apology for the Iraq war comes just as the Chilcot Inquiry is expected to be published, and his engagement with Zakaria’s questioning on CNN “has been interpreted as an acknowledgment that he will be criticized in the report.” [Politico’s Michael Goldfarb]
AFGHANISTAN
The Army Green Berets who called in the US strike on the MSF hospital in Kunduz knew that it was a hospital but thought that it was under Taliban control, the AP has learned.
Many questions remain unanswered about the Oct. 3 strike in Kunduz, Thomas Gibbons-Neff reports. [Washington Post]
The Taliban has urged humanitarian agencies not to “hold back” in their rescue efforts following an earthquake yesterday in northern Afghanistan and Pakistan that left at least 300 people dead. [Reuters]
ISRAEL and PALESTINE
Israeli authorities prevented the installation of surveillance cameras inside the al Aqsa mosque yesterday, escalating tensions as diplomatic efforts seek to halt violence between Israelis and Palestinians. [Wall Street Journal’s Rory Jones and Jay Solomon]
The “extremely serious” situation between Israelis and Palestinians may “deteriorate” further, the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas said in Brussels alongside EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini yesterday. [Wall Street Journal’s Laurence Norman]
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon commended Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuyesterday for his statement affirming Israel’s commitment to maintaining the status quo at the Haram al Sharif and the Temple Mount. [UN News Centre]
The US-brokered deal with Israel and Jordan prevented a serious crisis with Jordan. [Haaretz’ Barak Ravid]
SOUTH CHINA SEA
A US Navy Destroyer sailed close by China-built artificial islands in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, US defense officials said. The Chinese foreign ministry condemned the incident as “illegal;” the US ship breached the 12-mile zone China claims around the reefs in the Spratly archipelago. [BBC; Al Jazeera]
The move by the Obama administration was designed to “push back against China’s challenge to international order,” and more so-called “freedom of navigation” operations are likely to be carried out in the future. [Foreign Policy’s Dan de Luce and Keith Johnson]
YEMEN
Preparations have begun for peace talks between the warring parties to Yemen’s conflict, the UN special envoy to that country said yesterday. [UN News Centre]
Saudi Arabia supports a humanitarian ceasefire in Yemen but does not trust the Houthi rebels to stick to such a truce, Reuters reports.
Officials in the Obama administration are “at odds” over US support of the Saudi-led coalition air campaign in Yemen, some concerned of the risk of being accused of abetting war crimes. [Politico’s Nahal Toosi]
BENGHAZI
Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton was not “cooperative” during last Thursday’s Benghazi hearing, says the panel’s chair Trey Gowdy, suggesting that her answers were not entirely truthful or complete, on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“What has always been particularly harmful to the congressional oversight system is when panel members misuse the information they have collected” during public testimony of a witness, opines Walter Pincus, commenting on the Benghazi hearing last week. [Washington Post]
The Obama administration “deliberately misled the nation about the deadly events” in Benghazi in 2012, argues Kimberley A. Strassel, suggesting that Hillary Clinton’s testimony last week demonstrated this. [Wall Street Journal]
CYBERSECURITY
Facebook is carrying out a secret lobbying campaign in support of CISA, the major cyber bill set for a final vote in the Senate today, according to digital rights advocacy group, Fight for the Future. [The Hill’s Cory Bennett]
Sen Patrick Leahy has expressed concerns that the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act (CISA) would weaken government transparency. [The Hill’s Cory Bennett]
Destructive cyberattacks by states pose a mounting threat, according to deputy director of the NSA, Richard Ledgett. [BBC]
The Department of Justice is pushing back against Apple’s claims that unlocking a suspect’s phone would “tarnish the Apple brand” and result in an undue burden on the company. [The Hill’s Katie Bo Williams]
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
The British government has been called on to cancel an invitation to Egypt’s President, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi to visit Downing Street on the basis that he is a military dictator responsible for a “regime of terror.” The call comes in a letter from 55 signatories. [The Guardian’s Rowena Mason]
A now-closed FBI investigation of defense lawyers presented no ethical conflict, the 9/11 trial judge ruled yesterday. Following this ruling, plot suspect Walid bin Attash announced himself ready to discuss releasing his attorney, Cheryl Bormann and representing himself. Carol Rosenberg reports. [Miami Herald]
ISIS has claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on a Shi’ite mosque in the Saudi city of Najran that killed at least one person. [Al Jazeera]
Turkey detained 30 people today during a raid against ISIS militants in the city of Konya, a local news agency reported. [Reuters]
Could Russia really “cut” the Internet? asks Michael Pizzi, providing analysis following a recent New York Times article concerning an increase in Russian naval patrols close to undersea data cables. [Al Jazeera America]
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This undated handout photo provided by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office shows the StingRay II, manufactured by Harris Corporation, of Melbourne, Fla., a cellular site simulator used for surveillance purposes. Federal law enforcement officials will be routinely required to get a search warrant before using secretive and intrusive cellphone-tracking technology under a new Justice Department policy announced Sept. 3, 2015. The seven-page policy, the first of its kind, is designed to create a uniform legal standard for federal law enforcement agencies using equipment known as cell-site simulators. (AP Photo/U.S. Patent and Trademark Office)
If you think you’re being watched, you may be right. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has joined the list of at least thirteen federal agencies now equipped with sophisticated surveillance technology known as Stingray. The information was confirmed by The Guardian, which obtained invoices following a request under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) acknowledging the purchase of the devices in 2009 and 2012. The 2012 invoice indicates that IRS spent more than $70,000 on training and the purchase of a more powerful version of the Stingray called a HailStorm from the Harris HRS -1.35% Corporation which manufactures the devices.
Stingrays are also known as “cell site simulators” or “IMSI catchers.” The highly controversial devices, only slightly larger than a laptop, mimic cell phone towers and send out signals, or pings, to trick cell phones in the area into sending signals back with their location and other identifying information which may include the phone’s contacts, messages, and other content. While the devices are generally intended to target a specific target’s cell phone, the devices are capable of gathering the same information from nearby cell phones – folks who might be intended targets. Some smaller devices using related technology used by state and local law enforcement are virtually undetectable, about the size of a person’s hand.
Why is this alarming? The ability to gather data from all cell phone users in one location, including those who might not have been targets, is powerful. The data associated with innocent people may now be available for purposes it was perhaps not intended to be secured for in the first place. Additionally, while it has traditionally been the case that persons are generally protected from searches in places where there might be an expectation of privacy, such as inside a person’s home, the wide reach of the Stingray can allow for what is basically a warrantless search. The latter causes some to be concerned about whether the use of this technology might be a constitutional violation.
It is not clear how IRS is using or has used Stingray and related technology. While the Criminal Investigations department of IRS (IRS-CI) doesn’t generally use focus on “ordinary” taxpayers like you and me, the investigative arm does help follow the money in a variety of criminal matters, including situations where IRS may team up with the Department of Justice to bring down organized crime syndicates, terrorists and identity thieves as well as target financial institution fraud and public corruption.
(For more about the work of IRS-CI, click here.)
Prior to the acknowledgment that IRS has this technology, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)had identified 12 other federal agencies with Stingrays. Those agencies include Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the Secret Service, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), U.S. Marshals Service, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. National Guard, U.S. Special Operations Command (Special Ops), and, of course, the National Security Agency (NSA).
Exactly how extensively the devices are being used in federal agencies like IRS – as well as state and local police – is unknown. This is because federal agencies, police and other law enforcement have refused to disclose the purpose of the technology, even going so far as to deny the use. The use of the technology is so secret that in 2012, the FBI advised police that it was better to drop criminal charges than be forced to reveal ”any information concerning the cell site simulator or its use.”
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Still from 'Red Dawn'
BY: Daniel Wiser
Recent reports that Cuban military personnel are on the ground in Syria to support the alliance between Russia and the Assad regime underscore Moscow’s efforts to establish its most significant foothold in Latin America since the Cold War, analysts say.
A U.S. official told Fox News that Cuban paramilitary and special operations forces arrived in Syria to assist Russia, which has deployed troops and equipment and launched airstrikes in recent weeks to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Cuban troops could be there to advise the Syrian army or operate Russian-made tanks. The White House said in response that it has seen no evidence that Cuban forces are actually in Syria.
The Soviet Union largely relied on the Castro regime in Cuba during the Cold War to deploy troops in support of communist governments in Africa and the Middle East, as well as to train Marxist rebel groups in Latin America.
However, Russia has now courted several other authoritarian governments in Latin America that comprise the so-called Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), a bloc of nations formed by former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to oppose U.S. policies in the region.
“Given its current positioning, one could argue that Russia now has more influence in Latin America than ever before, even including at the height of the Cold War,” said Doug Farah, president of IBI Consultants, in his testimony on Thursday to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “This will likely remain true despite the recent announcement of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Cuba and the United States and Russia’s ongoing economic turmoil.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government has furnished countries in the Bolivarian Alliance with substantial support, Farah said, including “weapons, police and military training and equipment, intelligence technology and training, nuclear technology, oil exploration equipment, financial assistance, and an influential friend on the United Nations Security Council and other international forums.”
In return, Moscow has received increased “military access to the hemisphere’s ports and airspace,” giving Russian forces a platform to conduct exercises and surveillance missions close to U.S. shores. Putin can also count on backing from a significant portion of the region for Russia’s interventions abroad, such as in Syria.
Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of staff of the Russian armed forces and a frequent visitor to Latin America, has played an influential role in developing Moscow’s policies in the region, Farah said. His so-called “Gerasimov Doctrine” advocates “asymmetrical actions that combine the use of special forces, [and] information warfare that creates ‘a permanently operating front through the entire territory of the enemy state.’”
Farah said that, “all of the main elements of the doctrine are being carried out in Latin America,” including weapons sales, military and intelligence assistance, financial cooperation, and the creation of a counter-narrative in the region that combats U.S. “imperialism” with Russian-backed institutions.
Russia sold more than 3,000 surface-to-air missiles to Latin America nations between 2008 and 2011 after not selling any in the preceding three years, with Venezuela as one of the primary clients. Farah’s consulting firm also uncovered an “opaque network of former senior military and KGB officials operating in Central America, primarily running front groups for the Russian military and intelligence services.”
One of the primary leaders of the intelligence network is Alexander Starovoitov, a former general in the Soviet KGB who runs companies with expanding operations in Latin America, and which also have close ties with the Russian defense and intelligence agencies.
Additionally, Russian banks sanctioned by the United States have made several partnership agreements with Latin American financial institutions in recent years.
In the realm of information warfare, Russia has portrayed itself as defender of the region against a U.S. policy that envisions “pillaging the region’s natural resources, toppling the revolutionary regimes leading the march to Latin American independence, and subjugating its citizens,” Farah said.
Moscow has established a regional counter-narcotics training center in Nicaragua that Farah said will have 130 Russian trainers, a potential rival to longstanding U.S. anti-drug initiatives in Latin America. Russia also sends officials to the meetings of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), a body that Chavez created and that excludes the United States.
While U.S. officials have reduced diplomatic and military aid to Latin America as they focused on other regions, Russia has repeatedly dispatched senior officials for visits that are covered favorably by local state-run media, Farah said, feeding the perception that America is disengaging from the hemisphere as Moscow swoops in as a savior.
“The State Department, SOUTHCOM and the intelligence community all remain significantly under resourced in Latin America, where resources have been cut and the ability of embassies to carry out some of their core functions has been reduced as has the ability to monitor and understand the Russian activities,” he said. “In a time of resource scarcity, Russia has managed to leverage a small amount of resources into significant gains.”
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As documented in numerous Nicolas Cage movies, the FBI has a fairly strict ‘don’t negotiate with the terrorists’ policy. Unless you’re a company that’s had your files encrypted, in which case you should probably just pay the ransom. Welp.
According to Security Ledger, the advice comes from Joseph Bonavolonta, the Assistant Special Agent in Charge of the FBI’s CYBER and Counterintelligence Program in the Boston office. He said that “the ransomware is that good,” and that “to be honest, we often advise people just to pay the ransom.”
Ransomware is malware that infects a user’s computer, encrypts all of its files (often including networked backups), and then demands a payment in Bitcoin. The payment is small enough to be cheaper than trying to fight the encryption, often around $500.
The most infamous example is Cryptolocker, which some estimates had bringing in $30 million in 100 days. There’s not much that can be done to recover a Cryptolocked file without the encryption key, so unless you have a recent, offline backup (hi tape decks!), paying a couple hundred dollars is probably worth it.
That said, the FBI still wants to hear your ransomware tales of woe—the agency urges any corporation affected to contact the local field office. Just don’t expect swarms of agents helicoptering through the windows for emergency IT repair.
Read the whole story
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The exterior of the J. Edgar Hoover Building, which is the headquarters of the FBI. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)
By Michael E. Horowitz October 18
One of the most significant post-Watergate reforms was the passage in 1978 of the Inspector General Act (IG Act), which has put in place 72 federal inspectors general to serve as agency watchdogs responsible for ensuring the integrity and efficiency of our government’s operations.
An inspector general’s ability to accomplish that ever-challenging mission depends on the bedrock principles enshrined in the IG Act: independence and access to all an agency’s records without interference. I emphasize “all” because unrestricted access to agency records ensures that our essential functions cannot be thwarted. Over the past 35 years, that access has empowered IGs to root out government corruption and save U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars.
For decades, there was no controversy over what the words “all records” meant. But that changed in 2010 when FBI attorneys suggested, soon after several critical reports by my office as inspector general at the Justice Department, that “all records” might not include some records the FBI was seeking to withhold. This was the first time anyone in the department had asserted that the broad powers of the IG Act did not apply fully to our oversight.
Not surprisingly, once the FBI started raising legal challenges, several other federal agencies challenged their IGs’ independent oversight authority. For example, when the Peace Corps inspector general sought to review the agency’s response to sexual assaults against corps volunteers — oversight that was mandated by Congress — the agency put in place policies that prevented IG access to key records.
Making matters worse, recently an arm of the Justice Department issued a 68-page opinion thatsupported the FBI’s position and concluded that IGs do not have the right to independently access certain records involving grand jury testimony, wiretap information and some credit reports, no matter how critical they might be to our oversight. Indeed, these kinds of records have been central to some of our most significant reviews of FBI and Justice Department programs, and for more than 21 years the department had provided them to us without once accusing us of not properly safeguarding them. As a result of this decision, it is now up to agency officials to decide whether to grant, or refuse, an IG permission to review these types of records. This leads to the absurd situation where the words “all records” in the IG Act no longer mean “all records.”
Without independent access to agency records, our ability as IGs to conduct the kind of sensitive reviews that have resulted in widespread improvements in the effectiveness of government programs will be significantly compromised. For example, since 2010, many of my office’s most important reviews, including those affecting public safety, national security, civil liberties and even whistleblower retaliation, have been impeded or delayed.
Allowing officials whose agencies are under review to decide what documents an inspector general can have turns the IG Act on its head and is fundamentally inconsistent with the independence that is necessary for effective and credible oversight.
This safeguard was vital when Congress passed the IG Act in 1978, and it remains vital today. Actions that limit or delay an inspector general’s access can have profoundly negative consequences for our work: They make us less effective, encourage other agencies to raise similar objections and erode the morale of our dedicated professionals. As chair of the Council of Inspectors General, I know that inspectors general everywhere are deeply concerned about this attack on our independence.
Thankfully, a substantial bipartisan group in Congress shares our view that the IG Act must not be interpreted in a way that would render it toothless. Pending legislation in the Senate, S. 579, and the House, H.R. 2395, would restore IG independence and empower IGs to conduct the kind of rigorous, independent and thorough oversight that taxpayers expect. I urge Congress to pass legislation quickly that clarifies that “all records” means “all records” and reject any interpretation that would allow government agencies to shield their misdeeds from inspector general oversight and, more importantly, from the American people.
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