The Briefing: Russia Fights Its Syria War -- At Home
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The Power Vertical Briefing is a short look ahead to the stories expected to make news in Russia in the coming week.
The EU has criticized Russia's military intervention in Syria with the bloc's top diplomat calling it a worrying "game changer."
Moscow’s style of fighting Islamic State could kill chances of unifying Iraq.
Is Moscow Getting Its Money's Worth From Its Syria Campaign?by support@pangea-cms.com (Charles Recknagel)
Rough estimates suggest that Russia has so far spent less than $100 million for two weeks of air strikes, including cruise missiles, against targets in Syria. What has it got in return?
Syrian regime retaking ground, thanks to Russian bombing
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Whoever was responsible for the bombs that killed 128 people in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Saturday, the benefit of the resulting turmoil clearly accrues to the country’s embattled president. In late August, Recept Tayyip Erdogan called national elections for Nov. 1 to recover his role as Turkey’s “indispensible man”—and in the process appears to have unleashed the forces that kept Turkish politics snarled in the fear and suspicions that he called on everyday Turks to rise above when he first burst on the national stage more than a decade ago, as a celebrated political reformer.
Those hopeful days appear to be long gone. Erdogan called the new ballot because Turkish voters in June declined to give his mildly Islamist Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish initials AKP, the legislative supermajority required to realize Erdogan’s dream of re-making government on lines that would make him even more powerful. In fact, for the first time in 13 years, AKP failed to achieve even a simple majority, leaving it searching in vain for a partner with which to form a coalition government.
But in calling the new election, Erdogan also set out to change the playing field—chiefly by undermining the surging reformist party that had chipped away at AKP’s base: the Peoples’ Democratic Party, known as HDP, was a favorite of both the country’s large ethnic Kurdish population and liberal reformers intent on checking Erdogan’s authoritarian impulses. The Oct. 10 bombing targeted an HDP rally. The next day thousands of mourners chanted “Murderer Erdogan” and “Murderer State.” Police responded with tear gas.
“We won’t seek revenge,” Selahattin Demirtas, the former human rights activist who heads the HDPtold a crowd from atop followers from atop a bus. “Violence will breed more violence. We’ll seek justice in the election on Nov. 1. Shared life is possible among the oppressed and the abused. We will not surrender to a bunch of scoundrels.”
The government’s response to the bombings were contradictory and complex to the point of incoherence—a result that is actually often desired by leaders who cast themselves as the only candidate with the iron will and the understanding to rule. After the blasts, the Turkish military launched one set of air strikes against the Kurdish guerrillas it says are associated with the HDP. A second set of air strikes targeted ISIS, the extremist Sunni group that the very same Kurdish guerrilla organizations are fighting in Syria.
There was no evidence offered that either group was involved in the Ankara bombing—a Kurdish hand, against a rally for Kurds, would be particularly unlikely—but Erdogan has lumped the Kurds and ISIS under the rubric of “terrorist,’ and cast himself as enemy of both. His government began launching strikes on the Kurdish guerrillas, known in PKK, after declaring a new offensive against ISIS in August.
Among Turks mourning the dead, blame lay elsewhere. The assumption was that the worst terror strike in the country’s modern history was likely the work of the right-wing nationalist forces that historically have played an outsized but muddy role in Turkish political violence, especially against Kurdish activists and militants. Often referred to as the “deep state,” these elements had been the target of Erdogan’s religiously conservative party in its earlier, reformist days. In fact, one of the greatest achievements of AKP rule had been removing Turkey’s military as a potent political power, one that over the decades had carried out repeated coups against elected governments.
But the military’s political emasculation came via a murky judicial process that did little to establish the rule of law. And critics say Erdogan has, in any event, made Turkey’s top generals political players once again by coaxing them to launch the strikes against Kurdish guerrillas since the June election defeat.
The big picture—muddied though it may be by the blood and murk that often characterize Turkey’s politics in times of crisis—is of an embattled politician aligning himself with the reactionary, statist forces he rose to power railing against.
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The WikiLeaks founder has been holed up in the Ecuadorean Embassy in London since 2012, avoiding extradition to Sweden on a rape accusation.
Diplomatic correspondent Caroline Hawley answers key questions about the twin bombings in Ankara - and their impact on Turkey.
Russia stepped up its bombing campaign in Syria over the weekend, more than doubling the rate of strikes seen at the beginning of the operation.
With no resolution in sight to the standoff whereby wanted WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge in the Ecuadorean embassy in London, the U.K. has said it is stopping 24/7 police surveillance of the building.
Foreign minister says Emad ballistic missile test didn’t contravene agreement with world powers reached in July.
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has accused Russia of prolonging the war in Syria by supporting President Bashar Assad and calls on Moscow to join the fight against Islamic State militants.
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An Egyptian court ordered the release of the sons of deposed autocrat Hosni Mubarak on Monday, taking into account time already served on a corruption conviction.
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Russia’s intelligence agency says the men detained on Sunday in a suspected terrorist plot were Russians who had been trained by the Islamic State group in Syria.
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman says “irresponsible comments” and criticism from other countries against the kingdom’s handling of security during the hajj will not affect his country’s oversight of the annual Islamic pilgrimage.
Russia's president says he is not trying to "resurrect the Soviet Union" with his foreign policy and defends his actions in Syria.
Police are no longer guarding the Ecuadorian Embassy where Wikileaks' Julian Assange has been taking refuge, Scotland Yard says.
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 Firstpost |
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Saudis Tell Russia: Syria Action will Have 'Dangerous Consequences' by webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Moscow's military intervention in Syria will have "dangerous consequences", escalating the war there and inspiring militants from around the world to join in, senior Saudi Arabian officials told Russia's leaders on Sunday, a Saudi source said. Saudi Arabia will continue to strengthen and support the moderate opposition in Syria, the source said, citing positions outlined by Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir in their meetings in...
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Obama had a pretty sick burn mocking Putin's "leadership"
Vox President Obama, during an oddly confrontational 60 Minutes interview on Syria, managed to slip in a pretty good jab at Russian President Vladimir Putin. He was responding to a question from interviewer Steve Kroft. Much of the DC punditry has hailed ... How Obama Views StrengthThe Atlantic A '60 Minutes' interview with an unserious President ObamaFox News Obama's 60 Minutes interview says a lot about how he defines leadershipWashington Post CBS News all 170 news articles » |
BEIRUT President Vladimir Putin's overture to opponents of Russia's bombing campaign in Syria was snubbed on Monday, with Saudi sources saying they had warned the Kremlin leader of dangerous consequences and Europe issuing its strongest criticism yet.
Nearly two weeks since joining the 4-year-old war in Syria, Putin took his biggest step to win over regional opponents, meeting Saudi Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman on the sidelines of a Formula One race in a Russian resort on Sunday.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that those talks, along with discussions with the United States, had yielded progress on the conflict, although Moscow, Washington and Riyadh did not agree in full "as yet".
But a Saudi source said the defense minister, a son of the Saudi king and one of the chief architects of its regional policy, had told Putin that Russia's intervention would escalate the war and inspire militants from around the world to go there to fight.
Riyadh would continue to support President Bashar al-Assad's opponents and demand that the Syrian leader leave power, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity while describing the talks with the Russians.
European foreign ministers, meeting in Luxembourg, issued a statement calling on Moscow to halt its bombing of Assad's moderate enemies immediately.
They were unable to agree on whether Assad should have any role in ending the crisis but they did decide to extend sanctions by essentially freezing the assets of the spouses of senior Syrian figures.
"The recent Russian military attacks ... are of deep concern and must cease immediately," ministers said in their most strongly-worded statement on Russia's intervention in a war which has claimed the lives of 250,000 people and caused a refugee crisis in neighboring countries and Europe.
"The military escalation risks prolonging the conflict, undermining a political process, aggravating the humanitarian situation and increasing radicalization," said the ministers.
Moscow says it targets only banned terrorist groups in Syria, primarily Islamic State. In its briefings, it describes all of the targets it strikes as belonging to Islamic State.
However, most strikes have taken place in areas held by other opposition groups, including many that are supported by Arab states, Turkey and the West in a war which has also assumed a sectarian dimension with Shi'ite Iran at odds with Saudi Arabia's Sunni rulers.
AIR STRIKES BRING RISKS
For the first time since World War Two, Russian warplanes are flying combat missions in the same air space as Americans, who are leading a military coalition of Western and regional countries that is also bombing Islamic State, with all the accompanying risks.
Those countries say Assad's presence makes the situation worse and he must leave power in any peace settlement. They accuse Moscow of using Islamic State as a pretext to bomb other enemies of Assad, a charge denied by Russia.
Syrian forces and their allies from the Lebanese Shi'ite militia Hezbollah, backed by Iranian military officers, have launched a massive ground offensive in coordination with the Russian air support.
They fought their fiercest clashes on Monday since the assault began, advancing in strategically important territory near the north-south highway linking Syria's main cities.
Russian warplanes carried out at least 30 air strikes on the town of Kafr Nabuda in Hama province in western Syria, and hundreds of shells hit the area.
Russia said it carried out 55 sorties and hit 53 of what it described as Islamic State targets in the last 24 hours.
The Syrian army announced the capture of Kafr Nabuda and four other villages in Hama province. It also said the army had seized Jub al-Ahmar, a highland area in Latakia province which will put more rebel positions in the nearby Ghab Plain within range of the army's artillery.
"It controls the surrounding region," a Syrian military source told Reuters.
FIERCE CLASHES
But the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based group which monitors the war in Syria, said fierce clashes raged in both Kafr Nabuda and Jub al-Ahmar.
The Observatory's director, Rami Abdulrahmman, said the army and allied forces had taken part of Kafr Nabuda, and were fighting insurgents for full control of the town.
The Russian intervention in Syria has wrongfooted the U.S. administration of President BarackObama, which has been trying to defeat Islamic State while still calling for Assad's downfall.
Last week, Washington shelved a program to train and equip "moderate" rebels opposed to Assad who would join the fight against Islamic State. The only group on the ground to have success against Islamic State while cooperating with the U.S.-led coalition is a Kurdish militia, the YPG, which has carved out an autonomous zone in northern Syria and advanced deep into Islamic State's stronghold Raqqa province.
On Monday, the YPG announced a new alliance with small groups of Arab fighters, which could help deflect criticism that if fights only on behalf of Kurds. Washington has indicated that it could direct funding and weapons to Arab commanders on the ground who cooperate with the YPG.
Syrian Arab rebels said they had been told by Washington that new weapons were on their way to help them launch a joint offensive with their Kurdish allies on the city of Raqqa, the de facto Islamic State capital.
The U.N. diplomat trying to convene talks to end the war said he would hold talks in Russia on Tuesday and then in Washington.
(Additional reporting by William Maclean in Dubai, Tom Perry in Beirut, Gabriela Baczynska in Moscow and Robin Emmott in Luxembourg; Writing by Peter Graff and Giles Elgood, editing by Peter Millership)
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BEIRUT, Lebanon — Russian warplanes are carrying out more airstrikes in support of Syrian government ground troops as rebels are firing more American antitank weapons, deepening the impression that a proxy war between the United States and Russia is joining the list of interlocking conflicts in Syria.
Russia doubled the number of its airstrikes over the weekend to more than 60 a day, Russian state news media said, helping government troops take two villages on Monday.
Videos posted online by pro-Russian outlets, from an area above the village of Tal Skayk, in Hama Province, showed Syrian troops and allied militias watching as heavy barrages sent smoke towering from clusters of houses, while a narrator enthusiastically described progress in fighting “terrorists.”
At the same time, the handful of insurgent groups that received covert assistance from the United States have intensified their use of TOW antitank guided missiles, posting more than two dozen videos in the past few days of the missiles weaving over open fields before hitting their targets.
Russia and the United States have both said that they are fighting militants of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, but the two countries support opposite sides in the battle between PresidentBashar al-Assad and Syrians who are rebelling against his government.
The dynamic has ratcheted up the dangers of the conflict, while also bolstering morale for combatants on both sides, because the higher stakes have led some fighters to expect stronger commitments from their backers.
With air support from Russia, Mr. Assad’s government is trying to retake territory seized this year by insurgent groups that include the Nusra Front, the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, and American-backed units calling themselves the Free Syrian Army.
But the insurgents in that area do not include the Islamic State, which declared the formation of a caliphate, or religious state, in June 2014 that stretches from northern and eastern Syria into Iraq.
Both countries have said they want to defeat terrorist groups like the Islamic State, but in Syria, Russia’s definition of terrorist encompasses some groups that are allies of the United States.
Sept. 30 to Oct. 4
OPEN Graphic
The advances that have posed the most serious threat to Mr. Assad have come from a coalition of Islamist insurgents called the Army of Conquest that includes the Nusra Front but not the Islamic State.
Advancing alongside the Islamist groups, and sometimes aiding them, are several relatively secular groups led by army defectors, known as the Free Syrian Army.
The Free Syrian Army, despite fluctuating levels of assistance from the United States and its allies, has long been seen as a marginal player. The influence of Islamist groups has risen alongside better organization and financing. But new developments have given the Free Syrian Army a more prominent role, even while putting the group in new danger.
Several American-aided units have come under direct fire by the Russians, but they claim to have held their territory, with the help of TOW missiles, better than their Islamist counterparts.
“Rebels on these front lines are the Free Syrians who come from these villages and have no other place to go to,” said one fighter who asked that his name not be used, for safety reasons.
“We are not foreigners who can easily leave,” he added, contrasting his unit to the Nusra Front and the Islamic State, which have attracted foreign fighters. “We belong here, and our families and land are here.”
Syrian government troops advanced on Monday toward a crucial highway held by insurgents, taking several villages in Hama Province with the help of Russian airstrikes, according to Syrian and Russian state news media, antigovernment activists and fighters.
A senior commander of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia group that has been battling alongside Mr. Assad’s forces, was killed on Sunday in the fighting. He was identified as Hassan Mohammad Hussein al-Hajj by Hezbollah news outlets, which provided live coverage of his funeral on Monday.
Videos from the battlefield in recent days showed Russian attack helicopters swooping low over fields, seemingly close enough to touch, then veering upward to fire barrages of rockets, flares and heavy machine-gun fire.
Warplanes dropped leaflets over Idlib and Latakia, farther north, trying to persuade insurgents to surrender.
“40 types of ammunition … are waiting for you,” one read. “Able to destroy targets (ground-underground-shelters and fortified areas).”
Another read: “O Gunman: It is time for the truth. The world is changing rapidly. The army is coming. Think of yourself.” It added, “Drop your weapon to keep your life and future.”
Insurgents and antigovernment activists conducted their own information campaign, circulating videos showing how to disarm what they said were Russian cluster bombs and listing helpful Russian military terms that might be overheard on radio transmissions.
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ReutersRussian President Vladimir Putin, third from right, with Saudi Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman, fourth from left, during their meeting in Sochi, Russia, on Sunday.
DUBAI — Moscow's military intervention in Syria will have "dangerous consequences," escalating the war there and inspiring militants from around the world to join in, senior Saudi Arabian officials told Russia's leaders on Sunday, a Saudi source said.
Saudi Arabia will continue to strengthen and support the moderate opposition in Syria, the source said, citing positions outlined by Saudi Arabia's defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, and its foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, in their meetings in Russia with President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
"The Russian intervention in Syria will engage them in a sectarian war," the source said on Monday.
"The recent escalation will contribute in attracting extremists and jihadists to the war in Syria," the source said, adding that the Kremlin's actions would also alienate ordinary Sunni Muslims around the world.
The Saudis urged Russia to help fight terrorism in Syria by joining the existing coalition made up of more than 20 nations that is battling Islamic State militants, the source said.
Reuters
He also reiterated that Syrian President Bashar Assad must quit as part of a process agreed at a Syrian peace conference held in Geneva in June 2012.
"Assad should leave and the Saudis will continue strengthening and supporting the moderate opposition in Syria," the source said.
Moscow's intervention has infuriated Assad's regional foes, including Saudi Arabia, who say Russian airstrikes have been hitting rebel groups opposed to the Syrian leader and not just the Islamic State fighters Moscow says it is targeting.
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Moscow is behind more than 60 strikes a day, according to Russian state news media, and it helped troops supporting President Bashar al-Assad take two more villages.
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Screenshot/CBS
President Barack Obama's interview with CBS' "60 Minutes" that aired Sunday was anything but smooth.
During an interview that primarily covered Obama's foreign policy in the Middle East, correspondent Steve Kroft was combative with Obama, repeatedly asking questions about the president's strategy on Syria, the Islamic State, and the administration's response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent military maneuvers.
Kroft interrupted the president multiple times to challenge his answers, which seemed to genuinely perturb Obama.
One of the more interesting exchanges occurred when Kroft told Obama that Putin seemed to be challenging Obama's leadership.
Obama tried to make the case that Putin's actions came from a source of weakness, rather than strength. Kroft quickly disagreed.
"He's challenging your leadership, Mr. President," Kroft repeated. "He's challenging your leadership."
Obama cut him off to give his definition of leadership.
"My definition of leadership would be leading on climate change, an international accord that potentially we'll get in Paris," Obama said. "My definition of leadership is mobilizing the entire world community to make sure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon."
Perhaps the most contentious part of the interview was an exchange regarding the program in Syria to train and equip 5,000 moderate Syrian rebels. The Obama administration officially abandoned the program last week after months of setbacks. By the end, according to a top US general, only "four or five" US-trained rebels were active in the fight in Syria.
Kroft called the program an "embarrassment":
Steve Kroft: I want to talk about the — this program, because it would seem to show, I mean, if you expect 5,000 and you get five, it shows that somebody someplace along the line did not — made — you know, some sort of a serious miscalculation.
President Barack Obama: You know, the — the — Steve, let me just say this.
Kroft: It's an embarrassment.
Obama: Look, there's no doubt that it did not work. And, one of the challenges that I've had throughout this heartbreaking situation inside of Syria is, is that — you'll have people insist that, you know, all you have to do is send in a few — you know, truckloads full of arms and people are ready to fight. And then, when you start a train-and-equip program and it doesn't work, then people say, "Well, why didn't it work?" Or, "If it had just started three months earlier, it would've worked."
Kroft: But you said yourself you never believed in this.
Obama: Well — but Steve, what I have also said is, is that surprisingly enough it turns out that in a situation that is as volatile and with as many players as there are inside of Syria, there aren't any silver bullets. And this is precisely why I've been very clear that America's priorities has to be number one, keeping the American people safe. Number two, we are prepared to work both diplomatically and where we can to support moderate opposition that can help convince the Russians and Iranians to put pressure on Assad for a transition. But that what we are not going to do is to try to reinsert ourselves in a military campaign inside of Syria. Let's take the situation in Afghanistan, which I suspect you'll ask about. But I wanted to use this as an example.
Kroft: All right. I feel like I'm being filibustered, Mr. President.
Obama: No, no, no, no, no. Steve, I think if you want to roll back the tape, you've been giving me long questions and statements, and now I'm responding to 'em. So let's — so — if you ask me big, open-ended questions, expect big, open-ended answers.
Here's the first part of the interview, which primarily covered foreign policy:
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· · · · ·
World | Mon Oct 12, 2015 9:00am EDT
BEIRUT
A frame grab taken from footage released by Russia's Defence Ministry October 9, 2015, shows a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber dropping a bomb in the air over Syria.
Reuters/Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation/Handout via Reuters
Rebel fighters carry their weapons as they take positions in the town of Kafr Nabudah, in Hama province, Syria, on which forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad are carrying out offensives to take control of the town, October 11, 2015.
Reuters/Ammar Abdullah
Rebel fighters carry their weapons as they head toward their positions in the town of Kafr Nabudah, in Hama province, Syria, on which forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad are carrying out offensives to take control of the town, October 11, 2015.
Reuters/Ammar Abdullah
A frame grab taken from footage released by Russia's Defence Ministry October 9, 2015, shows a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber dropping a bomb in the air over Syria.
Reuters/Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation/Handout via Reuters
Rebel fighters carry their weapons as they take positions in the town of Kafr Nabudah, in Hama province, Syria, on which forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad are carrying out offensives to take control of the town, October 11, 2015.
Reuters/Ammar Abdullah
BEIRUT Syrian army and allied forces supported by Russian warplanes made further advances as they pressed an offensive against insurgents on Monday, in the fiercest clashes for nearly a week, a monitor said.
Russian jets carried out at least 30 air strikes on the town of Kafr Nabuda in Hama province in western Syria, and hundreds of shells hit the area as the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters seized part of it, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have in the past few days recaptured territory close to the government's coastal heartland in the west thanks to Russia's intervention, reversing rebel advances made earlier this year.
Moscow says its air campaign targets Islamic State, but most of the strikes have hit rival insurgent groups fighting against Assad, some of which are supported by the United States.
Pro-government forces including the Lebanese group Hezbollah on Monday captured the southern part of Kafr Nabuda, the Observatory's Rami Abdulrahman said.
The fighting, shelling and air strikes killed and wounded dozens of insurgents, he said.
"These are the most violent battles in the northern countryside (of Hama) since the start of joint operations several days ago" between the Russian air force and Syrian ground forces, he said.
Lebanese-based television station al-Mayadeen also reported the takeover of the southern part of Kafr Nabuda.
Kafr Nabuda's capture would bring government forces closer to insurgent-held positions along the main highway that links Syria's main cities. "The town is very important and strategic," Abdulrahman said.
The Syrian army and Hezbollah on Sunday took control of Tal Skik on the other side of the highway in southern Idlib province. Many of Russia's air strikes have hit the surrounding area, which also lies east of Assad's stronghold Latakia.
Russia began its air campaign on September 30, alarming a U.S.-led coalition which is carrying out its own air strikes against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
(Reporting by John Davison; Editing by Dominic Evans)
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BEIRUT, Lebanon-- After more than four years of gridlock fighting, forces loyal to the Syrian regime are convinced that Russian military action in Syria is the catalyst that will propel Syria’s war to the finish line. This seismic shift on Syria’s battlefields is not a foreshadowing of forthcoming peace in the country but an indicator that pro-regime forces and international powers backing President Bashar Assad – such as Russia and Iran — have abandoned the idea of a political solution to the conflict.
A high-ranking Hezbollah commander, who operates several units in Syria, told International Business Times: “Today I can tell you the solution is on the way. It’s going to be between Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. It’s going to be military not political. We are going to win militarily and then it’s done.”
Ground advances by regime loyalists, including the Syrian army, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, Iran-backed Shiite forces and other Iran-backed militias, are only possible, the commander said, with Russian airstrikes.
“It’s a simple strategy. Russia is striking and the infantry is advancing on the ground.”
Weakening the Islamic State group, commonly known as ISIS, was Russia’s initial justification for entering Syria’s civil war but recent strikes have proven that rebel opposition forces are also a target, suggesting Russia’s unstated aim is to fight enemies of the regime.
Since the aerial campaign began two weeks ago, Russia has already launched more than 100 airstrikes; Syria’s second-largest port city, Tartus, is home to a Russian naval base. The initial strikes have largely concentrated on aiding the regime to consolidate its territory in the north-south axis in the provinces of Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Idlib and Homs.
A few days into the campaign, Russian warplanes began to target ISIS’ de facto headquarters in the eastern province of Raqqa. According to the BBC , Russia claimed to have hit 55 ISIS targets in Syria in the 24 hours prior to Saturday.
The airstrikes, if successful, will help ground forces advance the Syrian regime’s hold over a strategically significant part of the country, paving the way for further gains in opposition-controlled areas.
T he ultimate goal, according to Hezbollah, is to keep Assad in power. “Bashar Assad is the regime. [It’s a question of] ‘Are you with the regime or are you with Daesh? [Arabic acronym for ISIS]’” the commander told IBT.
Future Targets
Earlier this year, several rebel groups joined al Qaeda’s Syrian branch Jabhat al Nusra to form Jaish al Fatah (the Army of Conquest), a joint military operations room that has overseen some of the most significant territorial gains for Syrian opposition since the start of the conflict.
The most notable victory for the Army of Conquest was the Idlib Governorate in northwestern Syria, the scene of some of the Syrian war’s most brutal battles. Senior figures in Hezbollah hope that Russian airstrikes will help the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite group to win back Idlib for the regime.
“Our main target will be Idlib. By the end of next month we will be celebrating that Idlib is liberated," the commander said.
A map of Russian airstrikes in Syria from September 30 to October 9. Institute for the Study Of War
Iran will also be sending new fighters from its IRGC Quds force this week, according to the Hezbollah commander. They will be stationed in the southern province of Deraa.
New Allies
Syria, Iran and Russia are trying to cement their strategical lead by forming alliances with other factions fighting in Syria. In an effort to transmute military gains into political ones, under the premise of defeating the Islamic State group, the Syrian regime, with the backing of Iran and Russia, has struck a deal with the Iraqi government to coordinate the fight against ISIS across the region.
Russia has also been negotiating with groups inside of Syria. Roughly nine months ago, the Syrian regime reportedly gave some Kurdish factions fighting in Syria control over the area between Hasakah, on the Turkish border, and the central province of Aleppo. The area is mainly under control of Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Turkish Kurdish People’s Protection Units (PKK), a U.S. designated terrorist group.
“PKK came from Turkey and Iraq to Syria to help the Syrian Kurds,” the commander said. “They have weapons from Russia, Syria and Iran.”
Turkey has long-feared that the conflict in Syria might give way to an independent Kurdish state on its border. The tension between Turkey and the Kurdish PKK militias heated up this summer after a set of PKK attacks broke the 2013 ceasefire between the Turkish government and the militant group. Days after the PKK attacks, the Turkish government launched a wave of bombings and an air campaign targeting PKK positions in both Turkey and Iraq.
If the PKK is helping their Syrian Kurdish counterparts fighting ISIS, it is only because the Syrian regime “gave Kurds some promises, like having freedom of speech, the right to govern themselves,” the Hezbollah commander said. What’s more, the PKK has consistently accused Turkey of supporting ISIS to target Kurdish factions.
Experts said the odds of a full-fledged Kurdish alliance with Syria is unlikely to stick, but that pro-regime forces realized long-ago that they priority should not be to engage the Kurds in any battle.
“There have been notable tensions between the regime and YPG but they’ve both been fighting ISIS,” Christopher Kozak, a Syria Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told IBT.
“It’s possible that the regime has decided to de-prioritize fighting the Kurds.”
The aftermath of a Russian airstrike in the Syrian province of Homs, September 30, 2015. Syria Civil Defense
Russia has allegedly made similar overtures to the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the political wing of the Syrian opposition that have been accepted, according to Hezbollah. In return for seats in a future parliament, Russia has asked the SNC to join forces with President Assad in the fight against ISIS.
The SNC confirmed that Russia had approached them, but denied any agreement had been made.
“We can’t accept any alliance that would include Assad,” Dr. Hisham Marwah, vice president of the SNC, told IBT. “We don’t believe Assad is serious about fighting ISIS.”
Experts are also skeptical of Russia’s claims. Kozak believes that Iranian and Russian intervention will only serve to prolong fighting instead of ending it.
“If the Iranians increase ground support then it will enable the [regime] to make gains. But I think it will only extend the civil war.”
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Vladimir Putin has admitted his goal in Syria is to prop up his ally Bashar al Assad - but said his foreign policy is not about "recreating the empire".
The Kremlin is targeting airstrikes not just at Islamic State but against all opposition to the Assad regime.
Mr Putin rejects the West's position that Mr Assad is an obstacle to peace.
"Our task is to stabilise the legal government and create the right conditions for reaching a political compromise," he said.
"Without struggle in Syria, the people armed with Kalashnikovs would have been in our territory long ago. Yet from far away we can help Assad to fight against them."
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On his wider foreign policy, which has included incursions into Ukraine, Mr Putin added: "We have absolutely no desire to recreate the empire, to resurrect the Soviet Union, but we have to protect our Russian independence and sovereignty."
Russia said it had conducted 55 sorties in Syria in the past 24 hours and hit 53 IS targets.
But NATO believes Mr Putin's strategy of attacking wider opposition to the Assad government will prolong the crisis.
Speaking at a NATO meeting in Norway, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: "Russia should play a constructive role in the fight against (IS).
"To support the Assad regime is not constructive. This is only prolonging the war in Syria."
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European Union foreign ministers are expected to condemn Russia's airstrikes on Western-backed rebels in Syria on Monday.
A draft statement seen by Reuters reads: "The recent Russian military attacks that go beyond Dae'sh (IS) and other UN-designated terrorist groups, as well as on the moderate opposition, are of deep concern, and must cease immediately.
"This military escalation risks prolonging the conflict, undermining a political process, aggravating the humanitarian situation and increasing radicalisation."
UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Mr Assad has to go.
"We're very clear that we cannot work with Assad as the long-term solution for the future of Syria," he said.
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"We can be flexible about the manner of his departure, we can be flexible about the timing of his departure but if we try to work with Assad we will only drive the opposition into the arms of ISIL (IS) - the very opposite of the outcome that we want.
"We also have to be clear and united in our condemnation of Russian attacks on the moderate opposition in Syria."
An estimated 250,000 people have been killed in Syria's four-year civil war between Mr Assad's troops, rebel groups and IS.
A further 11 million have been displaced.
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President Obama was widely criticized last year after he claimed Russia intervened in Ukraine “not out of strength, but out of weakness” since it was obvious Russian President Putin decided to meddle in Ukraine because he believed President Obama’s weak foreign policy guaranteed that the United States would do nothing to stop him.
Mr. Obama’s claim that Russia meddled in Ukraine out of weakness was ridiculous. The president doubled down on this nonsensical claim in a "60 Minutes" interview with Steve Kroft broadcast on Sunday when he said Putin's military mission in Syria is a sign of Russia's weakness, not a show of Putin’s leadership.
It was a painful interview to watch as the leader of the free world spoke about his disastrous foreign policy as if he lived in a fantasy world.
Mr. Obama claimed successes against ISIS because the U.S. reportedly “took away key land,” pushed it back in Iraq and disrupted some ISIS operations in Syria.
It was a painful interview to watch as the leader of the free world spoke about his disastrous foreign policy as if he lived in a fantasy world.
The president said a policy he announced last September to “degrade and destroy” ISIS would work “over time,” not in one year. Mr. Obama also said he was confident the nations of the world would come together “over time” to defeat ISIS.
Mr. Kroft, clearly exasperated by this stream of statements with no basis in reality, insisted that Vladimir Putin is not, as Mr. Obama asserted, acting out of weakness but was challenging his leadership.
The president disputed Mr. Kroft by saying, “Well, Steve, I got to tell you, if you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in, in order to prop up your only ally is leadership, then we've got a different definition of leadership.”
The president added to this by explaining what he considers the marks of U.S. global leadership under his administration: leading in climate change and bringing about the nuclear deal with Iran.
When Mr. Kroft told Mr. Obama that many people – including Israel, Saudi Arabia and congressional Republicans -- believe the U.S. is in retreat under his presidency, the president blamed this charge on partisan politics and attacked Republicans for believing the only solution to Middle East instability is sending hundreds of thousands of troops.
The president also repeated his line that the people who oppose his Middle East policy are the same ones who got the U.S. into the Iraq War.
President Obama concluded his discussion of foreign policy by telling Mr. Kroft that that America is a safer place today because of a reduced threat of terrorism, that U.S. strategic alliances are stronger, and America has a better reputation around the world.
I believe one explanation for Mr. Obama’s comments to Mr. Kroft is that his Syria/Iraq policy is actually a non-policy to do a little as possible about these crises so he can hand them to the next president to solve. I discussed this in a May 28, 2015 Fox News.com opinion article.
But overall, President Obama false and ridiculous statements in his "60 Minutes" interview about global security issues and his failed foreign policy is why the world does not view him as a serious president.
The world knows America is in retreat under the Obama presidency. It has learned that the word of this president means nothing. This is why Putin ignored the United States and intervened in Ukraine and Syria. This is why the threat from ISIS and global terrorism is growing. This is why China is expanding its efforts to control the South China Sea.
And this is why, with America’s global reputation plummeting, the world may be a much more dangerous and unstable place 15 months from now when Barack Obama leaves office.
Fred Fleitz is senior vice president for policy and programs with the Center for Security Policy, a Washington, DC national security think tank. He held U.S. government national security positions for 25 years with the CIA, DIA, and the House Intelligence Committee staff. Fleitz also served as Chief of Staff to John R. Bolton when he was Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security in the George W. Bush administration. Fleitz specializes in the Iranian nuclear program, terrorism, and intelligence issues. He does frequent does frequent news media interviews, including on the Fox News Channel. Fleitz the author ofPeacekeeping Fiascos of the 1990s: Causes, Solutions and U.S. Interests.
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INEXPLICABLE violence is the hardest kind to accept. The human wish to insert logic where there is none often drives bystanders to psychic violence of their own. This happened again last week, after it was reported that the shooter at Umpqua Community College in Oregon, Christopher Harper-Mercer, who killed nine people and injured several others, may have been autistic. Although there is no established connection between autism and murder, some eagerly leapt to causality and scapegoating.
The killer’s “diagnosis” was based primarily on posts on Yahoo made over the last decade by his mother, Laurel Harper, in which she characterized both herself and her son as having Asperger’s syndrome — a category no longer in medical use that describes autistic people with advanced verbal skills. Mr. Harper-Mercer attended a school that caters to children with special needs, including autism. While Ms. Harper is not a doctor, her descriptions of her son across his childhood are consistent with the syndrome.
A Facebook page called “Families Against Autistic Shooters” ranted about “the soulless, dead eyes of autistic children,” and characterized them as “cold, calculating killing machines with no regard for human life!” Its author announced: “What do all shooters over the last few years have in common? A lack of empathy and compassion due to Autism!”
If Mr. Harper-Mercer were rumored to have been diabetic or afflicted with male-pattern baldness, no such “explanations” of his behavior would have surfaced. But despite a huge increase in awareness of autism among the public, those with the condition are often subject to this type of disparagement.
This was evident in both the Facebook page and the response to it by Facebook’s management, who, despite the site’s anti-bullying policy, initially refused to remove it on grounds that it did not target named individuals. “Families Against Autistic Shooters” remained accessible until last Monday, by which time escalating media attention and a petition on <a href="http://Change.org" rel="nofollow">Change.org</a> with nearly 5,000 signatures embarrassed administrators into action. For the time it was viewable, the page stigmatized a population far more likely to be attacked than to attack, far less likely to receive justice when injured, and far more likely to be misunderstood. That devaluation of autistic lives is far deeper than any autistic devaluation of neurotypical lives.
Such prejudice arises in part from confusion about autism, which manifests in a multiplicity of symptoms, making generalizations difficult. Some people with autism cannot easily guess what other people are thinking, and therefore act without socially appropriate nuance. This perplexity is often conflated, unfairly, with lack of emotional empathy or even unkindness. Autistic people run the same gamut as other people: Some are kinder than others. Some find social interaction extremely taxing; others evince joy in trusted friends and family. Whatever anyone’s particular constellation of symptoms may be, however, autism is not associated with brutality. Failing to intuit certain aspects of other people’s inner experience does not equate to disdain for human life.
The wish to hurt others is tied not to autism but to psychopathy, which manifests in a deficiency or absence of empathy and remorse. Some autistic people may not recognize why they cause distress; psychopaths don’t care that they cause distress. Autistic people may see the world from a singular, personal perspective; psychopaths are often cunning manipulators who act according to perceived self-interest without regard for the destruction they cause. Psychopathy seems to have coincided with autism in the cases of Mr. Harper-Mercer at Umpqua and Adam Lanza at Newtown, Conn. Psychopathy apparently coincided with depression and grandiosity in the cases of Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold at Columbine and Elliot O. Rodger at Isla Vista, Calif. Psychopathy almost certainly coincided with schizophrenia in the cases of James Holmes in Aurora, Colo., and Jared Loughner in Tucson.
You can categorize such people as having a common madness only if your criterion for madness is their behavior itself. To say that you’d have to be crazy to shoot up a school is not the same as saying that crazy people are predisposed to kill. Fewer than 5 percent of gun crimes are committed by people with mental illness; fewer than 5 percent of people with mental illnesses commit violent crimes.
Tarring the autistic community in this manner — like presuming that most black people are thieves or that most Muslims are terrorists — is an insidious form of profiling. It exacerbates the tendency for people with autism to be excluded, teased and assaulted in childhood and adulthood.
The biggest challenge in cases where autism and psychopathy exist simultaneously is that the former is usually diagnosed and the latter is not, and parents who have received a diagnosis for their child tend to assign everything to autism. So a mother who knows her son has autism may presume that all his aberrant behavior reflects that condition, and may not seek evidence of other problems. Autism can be distracting.
It’s very reassuring to have an explanation for acts of horror. If killings like this are mostly undertaken by people with autism, the thinking goes, and your children and their friends don’t have it, then you are safe. Each of the Republican candidates for the presidency declared last week that we should deal with school shootings by providing aggressive treatment of people with mental illness — not to alleviate the suffering of the mentally ill, but to protect other people from the mentally ill. Unfortunately, psychopaths are often secretive, and we don’t have a psychopathy biomarker; despite urgent efforts from researchers, we can’t reliably identify these people ahead of time.
What we can say for sure is that stigmatizing people with conditions such as autism will not reduce gun violence; it will only amplify non-autistic people’s lack of ease with autistic people. Who comes up short on empathy in that scenario?
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