Today's Headlines and Commentaryby Elina Saxena, Quinta Jurecic
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Today's Headlines and Commentaryby Elina Saxena, Quinta Jurecic
Russia has fired a series of medium range cruise missiles into Syria in what appears to be a coordinated effort to launch a major offensive alongside Syrian ground troops, the New York Timeswrites. The missiles were launched from warships in the Caspian Sea, and the Post reports that “a map from Russia’s Defense Ministry showed the path of the cruise missiles crossing Iran and Iraq — which would apparently require coordination from both nations and draw them indirectly into the Russian military intervention as gateways for attacks.” Russia’s use of the missiles represents a significant escalation of the Kremlin’s involvement in the conflict.
In a televised meeting with the Russian defense minister, President Vladimir Putin “said it was too early to talk about the results of Russia's operations in Syria and ordered his minister to continue cooperation with the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq on the crisis.” So saysReuters. But despite Russia’s offers to broaden discussions, Secretary of Defense Ash Carterremarked that there would be no cooperation with Russia in Syria due to the Kremlin’s "tragically flawed" strategy. Nevertheless, the United States and Russia will continue discussions on deconfliction in Syrian airspace.
Secretary of State John Kerry is pushing for a U.S. no-fly zone over Syria, CNN tells us. Kerry has been advocating for “more robust measures,” according to one senior official, despite White House reluctance to implement a no-fly zone.
Meanwhile, following Russian incursions into Turkish airspace, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has warned Russia. And NATO Secretary General Jan Stoltenberg has confirmed “a substantial buildup of Russian forces in Syria” including not only “air forces, air defenses, but also ... ground troops in connection with the air base they have.” The Times has the story.
Reuters suggests that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander Qassem Soleimani's July trip to Moscow may have been a major factor in the Russian intervention in Syria. Soleimani’s visit (which violated a U.N. travel ban, and which the Kremlin denied as of August) points to the extent of collaboration between “Assad's two most important allies” in preparation for the Russian military campaign.
Last week, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi invited Russia to begin airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq, and now other Iraqi Shiite officials are joining in. The Journal reports on the mood in Baghdad, which seems to be steadily warming toward the Kremlin in the wake of a freshly-announced intelligence-sharing arrangement between Iraq, Iran, Russia, and the Assad regime.
Over at Foreign Policy, Amos Harel of Haaretz studies how the escalating crisis in Syria may soon pull in Israel. Despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to play down the effects of the Russian intervention on Israeli security, Russia’s deployment to Syria changes the strategic calculus, and efforts to avoid confronting Russia may compromise Israel’s commitment to action against Hezbollah.
Smugglers have attempted to sell radioactive material to extremist and terrorist buyers… including ISIS. The AP describes how criminal organizations “are driving a thriving black market in nuclear materials” in Moldova. Moldovan authorities reportedly shared their investigative files to “spotlight how dangerous the nuclear black market has become.”
ISIS may have shifted its online propaganda efforts from Twitter to the encrypted messaging app Telegram, the BBC reports. The app’s new function, introduced last month, allows users to “broadcast” to an unlimited number of members—providing an attractive alternative to Twitter, which has done its best to crack down on ISIS accounts.
President Obama has apologized to the aid group Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) over the U.S. bombing of a MSF-run hospital in the Afghan city of Kunduz this weekend, ABC writes. In response to the bombing, MSF is calling for an independent probe—in addition to ongoing U.S., Afghan, and NATO investigations—into what MSF refers to as an "attack on the Geneva Conventions." Al Jazeerahas more.
In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, U.S. Army Gen. John Campbell stated that the strike on the MSF hospital was the result of “a U.S. decision made within the U.S. chain of command” but added that U.S. forces “would never intentionally target a protected medical facility.” The Times suggests that Campbell may believe that U.S. forces did not follow proper rules of engagement. The AP agrees, pointing to Campbell’s order for the “entire force to undergo in-depth training in order to review all of our operational authorities and rules of engagement.”
General Campbell also addressed American troop presence in Afghanistan, urging policymakers to keep troops in Afghanistan after 2016. Defense One highlights Campbell’s statement that President Obama’s earlier commitment to a full U.S. withdrawal did not account for recent developments—such as the spread of the Islamic State into Afghanistan. The Post has more, pointing to Campbell’s observations on ISIS’s spread into Nangarhar province along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
In Israel, the Times describes the continuing violence and fears of a Third Intifada. The newspaper reports on four Israeli citizens killed in two Palestinian attacks and four Palestinians killed by Israeli security forces, while wondering if the notion of a Palestinian uprising might be “outdated.”
The Post reports that, following the funeral of a 13-year-old Palestinian boy who was shot by Israeli security forces, hundreds of Palestinian youths began throwing stones at Israeli forces in Bethlehem.And in two separate examples of escalating violence, two Palestinians were shot after stabbing attacks on an Israeli soldier and civilian.
In efforts to ease tensions, Israeli police lifted the restrictions on worship at the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, AFP writes. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has expressed that he “wanted to avoid a violent escalation with Israel.” Over at the UN, Ban Ki-moon called on Israel to investigate the clashes in Jerusalem as well as into the killing of the Bethlehem teen to determine "whether the use of force was proportional."
The EU has announced plans to seize boats used by smugglers to transport migrants. Time reportsthat the operation “requires European ships to stay in international waters, but officials hope that they eventually will receive permissions to enter some foreign waters to intercept ships closer to shore.”
Desperate to flee terrible conditions in underfunded Jordanian refugee camps, many Syrian refugees in Jordan are now looking to head toward Europe or even back into their home country. The BBC has the story.
In response to the continuing refugee crisis, the White House has begun “its first social service campaign aimed at raising money for the United Nations refugee agency on behalf of Syrian refugees." After just over six days of operating, the campaign has raised almost $1 million, from over 15,000 backers.
Following the historic nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei imposed a ban on any future deals with the United States which could cause “economic, cultural, political and security influence.” Reuters points out that this ban contradicts several of the messages shared by more moderate Iranian politicians. The Times has more on Ayatollah Khamenei’s fear that negotiations could spread infiltration.
The BBC reports that “Yemen's Houthi rebels have confirmed in writing to the UN secretary general their commitment to UN resolutions aimed at ending the country's conflict,” which would mandate a ceasefire and return the official Yemeni government to the capital city of Sanaa. The Houthis committed informally to the peace plan last month. Houthi representatives described the commitment as a “fundamental step” to ending violence.
Yet violence continues. The Journal describes a series of attacks in the country’s port city of Aden, which killed 15 members of the Saudi-led coalition force. This marks the “first time an affiliate of the extremist group has directly hit the international force in Yemen.”
In Nigeria, two female suicide bombers killed 18 people in Damaturu, according to the Times. In a separate attack, Boko Haram extremists laid siege to a military camp; the group was repelled by troops who killed at least 100 from the insurgent forces.
The U.N. envoy for Mali confirmed that the peace process between the Malian government and Tuareg and Arab separatist rebels is “back on track” after a period of violence in August. The parties involved agreed to cease hostilities and return to peace talks, the Times writes.
After the announcement that 70 British troops would be deployed to Somalia to support the African Union mission in the country, al Shabaab militants have announced threats to “welcome them with bullets,” reports AFP. The British forces will have a non-combat role in the AU mission.
Belarussian president Alexander Lukashenko has rejected Russian plans to build an airbase on Belarus’s soil, the BBC writes, although the Kremlin has already established a radar station within the country. Lukashenko’s statement may point to his desire to improve relations with the European Union even as he publicly maintains his loyalty to Moscow.
Australian authorities have arrested four suspects in a terror case involving the murder of a civilian employee of the Sydney police, AFP reports. The murderer, a 15-year-old, was heard by some to shout “religious slogans” after shooting the victim. Australia has been on high alert for terrorism offences following a string of lone-wolf attacks in recent months, some of which have been linked to ISIS.
Al Jazeera examines a proposal by the Thai government to implement even greater government controls over domestic Internet. The plan, unofficially dubbed “The Great Firewall of Thailand,” has faced a storm of popular protest and would likely return Thailand to the even more restrictive measures that held sway before Internet reforms in the late 90s.
Following reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency on possible increases in North Korean nuclear activity, South Korea has declared its intentions to “curb the enemy’s provocations.” Yonhap News has two stories.
Ars Technica takes a look at some freshly leaked details from the Trans-Pacific Partnership accord.New Zealand’s government revealed on Tuesday that the terms of the TPP mandate an extension of copyrights through the life of the creator to 70 years after their death, in accordance with current U.S. law. The TPP’s full text is set to be released by the end of 2015 at the latest.
A day after the European Court of Justice handed down its ruling in Schrems v. Data Protection Commissioner, striking down a core features of the “safe harbor” framework for data protection between the U.S. and E.U., governments and tech companies are figuring out where to go from here. The Journal reports that many U.S.-based firms are looking into building data-storage centers within Europe—thus avoiding the situation at issue in Schrems, which focused on E.U. data stored within the United States. Meanwhile, The Hill writes that ongoing talks between the U.S. and E.U. to create a “Safe Harbor 2.0” will continue in the wake of the ruling.
The Senate voted yesterday to advance a controversial draft of the 2016 NDAA, essentially ensuring that the bill will make its way to the White House. President Obama has threatened to veto the legislation for its refusal to address sequestration cuts to the defense budget, instead opting to continue military spending through use of the Overseas Contingency Operation “slush fund.” The bill also strengthens restrictions on transferring detainees from Guantanamo Bay, contrary to the White House’s policy goals. Military Times tells us that the Senate’s final vote on the bill will likely take place on Thursday.
In other budgetary news, Defense One reports that the ongoing budget gridlock is causing serious problems for military acquisitions. Arms buyers from the Pentagon stated yesterday that, if Congress continues to fund the government for the next year with the same continuing resolution passed last week, major acquisitions projects will have to be canceled.
One more Guantanamo detainee has been cleared for release, the Miami Herald reports.Mohammed Khamin, who has been held in Guantanamo since 2004, will return to his home in Khost, Afghanistan. For those keeping track, this means that 54 of the remaining 114 detainees have now been approved for release.
Parting shot: С днем рождения, Vladimir Vladimirovitch! Today marks the 63rd birthday celebration of none other than President Putin, who celebrated his special day by scoring seven goals against professional hockey players in what was doubtless a completely fair match. The Post also brings uspictures from the celebratory “Putin Universe” exhibit in Moscow, which depicts the president as a Greek god, Batman, and various other comic book heroes.
ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare
Quinta Jurecic pondered President Obama’s “moral muse” in relation to the drone program.
Jack pointed us to a new piece by Samuel Moyn in Dissent, which argues that civil libertarians in the U.S. have tacitly accepted “endless war.”
Samuel Cutler argued that the Iran Sanctions Act is legally irrelevant as far as U.S. ability to “snap back” sanctions on Iran is concerned.
Cody linked us to the General John Campbell’s testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on military operations in Afghanistan.
Ingrid Wuerth described the oral argument for the case OBB Personenverkehr v. Sachs, a Supreme Court case on the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act.
Alex Loomis notified us of the European Court of Justice’s decision invalidating the Safe Harbor framework.
Ammar Abdulhamid studied Russian rhetoric on the conflict in Syria as a “holy war.”
Timothy Edgar examined the implications of the ECJ’s decision on Safe Harbor.
Email the Roundup Team noteworthy law and security-related articles to include, and follow us onTwitter and Facebook for additional commentary on these issues. Sign up to receive Lawfare in your inbox. Visit our Events Calendar to learn about upcoming national security events, and check out relevant job openings on our Job Board.
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French President Francois Hollande has said failure to act in the Middle East risks stoking an "all-out war."
Is The Caucasus Emirate On The Rebound?by support@pangea-cms.com (Liz Fuller)
Since the start of this year, numerous Russian analysts have predicted that the growing influence and popularity of the extremist organization Islamic State (IS) among disaffected residents of the North Caucasus would ultimately render the Caucasus Emirate both impotent and irrelevant.
After the infamous “foreign agents” law that has hindered or closed more than 60 non-government organizations, the State Duma has turned its sights on the media and is now drafting a law regulating media companies that are financed from abroad,
Welcome to our column, Russia Update, where we will be closely following day-to-day developments in Russia, including the Russian government’s foreign and domestic policies.
The previous issue is here.
Special features:
Kashin Explains His ‘Letter to Leaders’ on ‘Fontanka Office’
–TV Rain Interviews Volunteer Fighter Back from Donbass
– ‘I Was on Active Duty’: Interview with Captured GRU Officer Aleksandrov
– Meet The Russian Fighters Building A Base Between Mariupol And Donetsk
–TV Rain Interviews Volunteer Fighter Back from Donbass
– ‘I Was on Active Duty’: Interview with Captured GRU Officer Aleksandrov
– Meet The Russian Fighters Building A Base Between Mariupol And Donetsk
UPDATES BELOW
 USA TODAY |
Russia fires missiles from warships into Syria amid new ground offensive
USA TODAY Russian warships launched missiles into Syria from the Caspian Sea on Wednesday asRussian-backed government troops launched a ground offensive to crush forces opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The missiles mark a major ... Syrian forces begin ground offensive backed by Russia air and sea powerWashington Post Escalating Syria Attack, Russia Fires Missiles From WarshipsNew York Times Russian Warships Hit IS Targets in SyriaVoice of America Wall Street Journal -BBC News -CNN all 7,315 news articles » |
 Forbes |
Russia Turning The Corner On Sanctions
Forbes 29 interview with Charlie Rose in the suburbs of Moscow, his United Nations General Assembly speech about fighting terrorism in Syria, and Germany and France suddenly leaning more towards Russia on the Ukraine variable means Russia is looking less ... and more » |
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- Russia Update: State Duma Drafts Law Requiring...After the infamous “foreign agents” law that has hindered or closed more than 60 non-government organizations, the State Duma has turned its sights on the media and is now drafting a law regulating media companies that are financed from abroad, Welcome to our column, Russia Update, where we will be closely following day-to-day developments in...
- Putin Can’t Win in Syria with Airstrikes...Staunton, October 1 – Vladimir Putin has adopted a very risk approach in Syria: One misstep there and he will alienate most of the Muslim world, and the possibility he may dispatch ground troops once it becomes obvious that airstrikes alone won’t be enough could cost him most of his support at home, according to...
- Putin in Syria: Regime Presses Attack In...LIVE UPDATES: Syrian regime forces are now reported to be on the advance supported by intense Russian air strikes on a pocket of rebel-held territory in the Hama province. The previous post in our Putin in Syria column can be found here.
- Russia Update: State Duma Drafts Law Requiring Media...After the infamous “foreign agents” law that has hindered or closed more than 60 non-government...
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Iraq Steps Up IS Battle Amid Tussle on Russian Participationby webdesk@voanews.com (Edward Yeranian)
The Iraqi military says it has entered the Anbar province capital of Ramadi from the west and is attempting to advance on the center of the city. The report comes amid a dispute between the Iraqi government and United States over Russian participation in the battle against IS. Iraqi state TV is reporting government forces have entered the Anbar province capital of Ramadi from its western outskirts, after clearing mines and other booby traps laid by Islamic State militants.VOA could not independently confirm the extent of the Iraqi advance. Anbar operations spokesman General Yehya Rassoul told the TV the joint operation by Iraqi military, police, tribesmen and Shi'ite volunteers was advancing on the center of Ramadi. He said Iraqi forces were waging a battle to liberate Ramadi and pursuing their advance toward the city center on several sides, destroying enemy defenses. Islamic State militants were fleeing, he added, due to the heavy strikes against them. Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi insisted during a speech Wednesday that Iraq did not want foreign ground troops to help in the battle against IS, and that “air operations must be coordinated with the Iraqi military.”He denied that security cooperation with Russia had begun. He said cooperation among Iraq, Iran and Russia probably would not start for at least three months. Iraqi military analyst and former Interior Ministry spokesman Abdel Karim Khalaf told state TV the “agreement for Russia to join air operations in Iraq has been approved by both Russia and Iraq 'at the highest levels.'” The U.S. coordinator of operations against the Islamic State group, General John Allen, met with top Iraqi officials Wednesday in Baghdad to discuss the ongoing conflict. U.S. Ambassador Stuart Jones also met with Iraqi Parliament Speaker Selim Jabbouri to discuss an eventual vote by lawmakers to authorize Russian security cooperation with Iraq. The Saudi-owned Arab daily Al Hayat quoted a U.S. official Wednesday as saying that “airstrikes against IS would probably continue” if Russia joined the battle, but “there would be fewer of them.”
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The US defense secretary made it clear on Wednesday that America has not agreed to, and will not, cooperate with Russia on military action in Syria unless Moscow dramatically changes its ‘flawed strategy’. Carter, speaking during a trip to Rome, said the US will keep lines of communication open but will not work alongside Russia under current conditions
Continue reading...
Chechen leader pays tribute to ‘manly, wise and wilful’ Russian president, and rapper releases musical tribute, as Putin turns 63
After his warships fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin shot pucks into the net at an ice hockey game on his 63rd birthday.
Hours after the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said at a meeting with Putin that Russia’s fleet had launched 26 cruise missiles at Islamic State targets in Syria, the pair joined former NHL stars and Kremlin-linked oligarchs for a match in Sochi that was broadcast live on national television.
Continue reading...
The Russian president teamed up with former NHL stars at the Bolshoi Ice Palace in Sochi for a match to mark the fifth season of the Russian Night Hockey League
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The flights will use US airports which see little to no international service
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Risky Business: Russian Syria Bombing Jeopardizes Ties With Sunni World by support@pangea-cms.com (Charles Recknagel)
Russia's bombing campaign in Syria is endangering its relations with majority Sunni Muslim states.
Explaining the Russian military’s missile strike in Syria, fired from its warships in the Caspian Sea.
Russia moved on Tuesday to resume military talks with the United States aimed at setting rules for air-to-air conduct over Syria, a U.S. official said, as the former Cold War foes carry out parallel, uncoordinated campaigns of air strikes.
 Bloomberg |
Russia Shuns No-Fly Zone for Syria as Clerics Urge Reprisals
Bloomberg Russia rebuffed calls for a no-fly zone over Syria as Saudi clerics and Islamist rebels urged for retaliation against its extended bombing campaign that has targeted militant groups in the Arab country. Officials from Moscow ruled out sending troops to ... Saudi clerics call for jihad against Russia in Syria – to back ISIS?RT Saudi Clerics Call For Jihad Against Assad, Russia and Iran in SyriaNewsweek Saudi Clerics Call for Jihad Against Iran and Russia in SyriaVICE News all 62 news articles » |
BBC News |
NATO secretary general confirms second Russian violation of Turkish airspace
CNN Washington (CNN) [Breaking news update at 7:39 a.m.]. Syrian state media reported Tuesday that joint Russian and Syrian airstrikes hit ISIS targets in the modern city of Palmyra, adjacent to the ancient ruins. The airstrikes hit "ISIS hideouts ... Syria conflict: Russia violation of Turkish airspace 'no accident'BBC News Russian Violation of Turkish Airspace is Deliberate, NATO Chief SaysNBCNews.com NATO rejects Russia explanation on Turkish air spaceReuters New York Times -Military Times all 4,422 news articles » |
 CBC.ca |
Russia denies ground troops involved in Syria, amid confusion over 'volunteers'
CBC.ca Russia isn't conducting operations in Syria involving its own ground troops and won't do so, Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, the head of the lower house of parliament's defence committee, says, amid confusion over whether "volunteers" may be getting ... and more » |
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 RT |
From Day 1 of Russian anti-ISIS op in Syria MSM launched anti-Russian ...
RT “From the very beginning of the military part of the Russia's counter-terror operation in Syria, which was initiated after the official request of the government of that country, international media launched a powerful anti-Russian campaign,” Zakharova ... and more » |
 RT |
Russia ready to consider Iraqi request for airstrikes – Upper House speaker
RT “In case of an official address from Iraq to the Russian Federation, the leaders of our country would study the political and military expediency of our Air Force's participation in an air operation. Presently we have not received such an address ... Russia would consider air strikes in Iraq at Baghdad's request: RIAReuters all 15 news articles » |
Самолеты прибыли 6 октября на авиабазу в Ростове-на-Дону с аэродрома Новосибирского авиационного завода им. В.П. Чкалова.
 РБК |
Неопознанный МиГ-29 взял на прицел восемь турецких истребителей F-16S
РБК Генштаб Турции заявил, что неопознанный МиГ-29 взял на прицел восемь турецких истребителей, патрулировавших границу с Сирией. Это второй подобный инцидент за последние три дня. Турецкие истребители F-16. Архивное фото. Фото: AP. В этом сюжете. Вашингтон назвал ... Неопознанный МиГ-29 5 октября мешал турецким F-16 патрулироватьКоммерсантъ Турция заявила о новом инциденте с преследованием истребителей страны неопознанным МиГ-29Информационное агентство России ТАСС Совет безопасности Турции обсудил инцидент с российским самолетомРИА Новости Газета.Ru -Взгляд -Радиостанция ЭХО МОСКВЫ Все похожие статьи: 215 » |
Russian politician says Moscow would 'consider the viability' of strikes, but that no request has yet been received
The move is intended to address anger over exemptions that have been granted to companies like Starbucks and Amazon.
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 НТВ.ru |
Неизвестный МиГ-29 помешал полетам турецкой авиации
BBC Russian Неизвестный самолет МиГ-29 помешал разведывательным полетам военно-воздушных сил Турции над границей с Сирией, сообщили представители турецкой армии. "Восемь турецких самолетов F-16 осуществляли разведывательные полеты над турецко-сирийской границей, и во ... Неопознанный МиГ-29 взял на прицел восемь турецких истребителей F-16SРБК Второй инцидент с "неопознанным истребителем": МиГ-29 держал на мушке 8 турецких истребителейNEWSru.com Неопознанный МиГ-29 5 октября мешал турецким F-16 патрулироватьКоммерсантъ Информационное агентство России ТАСС -Газета.Ru -Газета Труд Все похожие статьи: 219 » |
Как отметил глава военного ведомства, подготовка войск, обозначающих условного противника, осуществлялась заблаговременно на основе всестороннего анализа тактики бандформирований «Исламского государства» в Сирии и Ираке, а также талибов в Афганистане.
Anonymous source says Thomas Nilsen, who had extensively covered oil drilling in the Arctic, was sacked at the behest of the Russian intelligence
A Norwegian Arctic newspaper editor who has extensively covered oil drilling in the region was sacked at the behest of the Russian intelligence service, according to Norway’s public service broadcaster.
Thomas Nilsen told the Guardian he had no reason to disbelieve the report from the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK), and that it would be awful if it were true that the FSB, Russia’s security agency, was involved.
Continue reading...Russia Now Faces Threat of Real Terrorism and Even Civil War, Moscow Sociologist Says by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, October 6 – “The war in Syria is not a hybrid war or a media conflict,” Denis Sokolov says. Instead, “for the almost half million combatants fighting there it is a very real war,” one that they and their supporters may bring to Russia in the form of real terrorism across the country and even the horrors of civil war.
In a commentary in “Vedomosti” today, the Moscow sociologist says that Russia has been successful in dealing with hybrid forms of war and “the simulacrum of terrorism” to promote the agenda of the Kremlin elite but it now faces a real war and the challenges are more serious (vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2015/10/06/611586-negibridnaya-voina).
“Terrorism,” the expert from the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service says, “has already taken several thousand lives and now, in conjunction with the fall of oil prices, the conflict in Ukraine and the expansion of military ambitions in the Middle East, it may bring the conflict onto Russian territory.”
That is because, Sokolov says, “the war in Syria and Iraq is not a hybrid war which ‘polite little green men’ can cope and not the blackmailing of ‘our Western partners’ who are prepared even to move red lines if only there will not be a war.” Instead, there are real fighters who don’t take their views from NTV and who can reorient the conflicts inside Russia.
As a result, he argues, “home-grown’ terrorism can grow out of the format of special operations into that, as is already the case in Syria, of a real war.” Even if the Syrian campaign against Asad’s opponents is “simply a symbolic action,” it will bring into Russia “unlimited terror” not just in the North Caucasus but “throughout the entire territory of the country.”
The siloviki are “provoking Muslims [in Russia] with repressions that have no justification, but they will disappear from the streets when it will become dangerous and the budget collapses.” Then, Sokolov says, people will decide to form “detachments of self-defense,” leading to “pogroms and possibly civil war.”
The domestic conflicts and acts of terrorism Russia has faced up to now, Sokolov says, are one thing. But when war begins, “everything changes – terrorism, divisions, and opposition can change from being simulacra of a horrible beast into a civil war,” as one can see if one looks at what happened in Russia in the first part of the 20thcentury or in Ukraine more recently.
One source of cadres for such conflicts are those who fought in the Donbas; another and more widespread one are Muslims from across Russia who have gone to Syria to fight for the Islamic state, the Moscow scholar says. (He cites figures from various republics.) When they return as return they will, they will seek to extend its influence at home.
If and when that happens, he suggests, the kind of terrorism Moscow has faced up to now will be “transformed into a real civil war” that its participants will treat as a serious business rather than something less and be based on ISIS control of major revenue streams from the sale of raw materials like oil.
In that case, he implies, the methods Moscow has used up to now will clearly be insufficient to ensure that it will be able to keep the situation under contro.
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In a searing indictment of Russian leaders, journalist claims government is failing to prosecute those responsible for an attack that nearly killed him
Oleg Kashin’s open letter to president Vladimir Putin and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is both a personalised cry of anguish about the failure to arrest the man he believes responsible for an attack that nearly killed him, and a searing indictment of the current Russian political system.
The attack on the journalist in 2010 left him with a broken jaw, fractured skull, broken leg and broken fingers, one of which had to be amputated. None of his valuables were taken.
You have complete and absolute control over the adoption and implementation of laws in Russia
Don’t flatter yourself: the last 15 years haven’t been a revival for Russia – the country hasn’t risen from its knees
Continue reading...Russia Says No Ground Troops In Syria, Not Recruiting Volunteers by support@pangea-cms.com (RFE/RL)
Russian officials stressed on October 6 that Moscow will not deploy ground troops in Syria, and said it is not recruiting volunteers to fight on the side of President Bashar al-Assad.
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Роберт Амстердам о Стефане Темпле by golosamerikius
Originally published at - http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/media/video/interview-robert-amsterdam-2-2min/2992545.html
Адвокат Роберт Амстердам убежден, что России нужны «десятки Ходорковских” – и что США неправильно оценили гражданский поступок Эдварда Сноудена
Originally published at - http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/media/video/interview-robert-amsterdam-1-10-min/2992539.html
Originally published at - http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/media/video/interview-robert-amsterdam-1-10-min/2992539.html
Staunton, October 6 – Vladimir Putin views Barack Obama as being in “panicked retreat” because of the latter’s decision to extricate the US from wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and believes that it would be foolish not to exploit the possibilities that such a drawdown in American power present, according to Konstantin von Eggert.
But in doing so, the Moscow analyst says, Putin has opened the door to even more problems for himself as the conflict continues not only internationally but at home where most Russians and especially Russia’s predominantly Sunni Muslim community oppose his support of Assad.
In the short term, von Eggert argues, Putin has achieved five goals by his Syrian actions:
First, he has forced Obama to meet with him because, as a result of Syria, Obama “simply could not refuse dialogue with Putin” given the stakes.
Second, Putin has succeeded in reducing the importance of Ukraine for Washington and thus making it less the defining issue of the West’s relations with Moscow.
Third, Putin has “sent an unambiguous signal to the not-very-numerous allies of the Russian regime: ‘if things are going badly for you, we won’t throw you over,’” a message by which the Kremlin leader wants to contrast himself with the behavior of the United States.
Fourth, “participation in the Syrian civil war is giving [Russia] a chance to demonstrate what the latest Russian arms are capable of,” something useful not only to influence others but to attract new orders for Russia’s arms exporters.
And fifth, “Putin has made it clear to the entire world and above all to the United States that the principle of the sovereign right of any regime to do what it finds appropriate on its own territory is for him inviolable.”
Putin’s moves in this regard reflect a fundamental difference between the West and Russia. Western leaders get involved in foreign affairs “by necessity.” Putin in contrast sees foreign actions as “one of the main (if not the chief) component parts of his legitimacy in the eyes of his compatriots.”
Moreover, von Eggert continues, “Obama and his entourage have the dislike of using military force characteristic of Western leftists while Putin considers [the use of such force] as the key element of world politics.” For him, respect is everything because people “’respect the strong but beat the weak,’” as he has said many times.
Von Eggert says that he is “certain that the decision of Obama to leave Iraq and Afghanistan was viewed in the Kremlin as a panicked flight from responsibility,” as actions and an attitude that have created a power vacuum that it would be “strange” if Moscow were not to try to exploit.
And consequently, Putin has moved back into the Middle East in much the same way the Soviet leadership did during the Cold War, as a region of competition with the US “in which Moscow has nothing particular to lose” unless and until Washington shows a new willingness to counter him.
If Putin is able to get Obama to agree to his terms in Syria: Russian support for the fight against ISIS in exchange for the West’s acceptance of Assad’s remaining in power, then, von Eggert says, “America will suffer yet another diplomatic defeat and [Putin] will be confirmed as a politician without whose participation no major international problem can be resolved.”
“More than that,” the Moscow commentator says, “until the end of the Obama presidency, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Belarus will have reason to be nervous. For in the Kremlin, such a development of events will be viewed as carte blanche for a new expansion in the post-Soviet space, and even possibly into the Baltic countries.”
But if Obama and the West do not agree, then “the situation for official Moscow could become quite unfavorable.” Russia is “not the largest, most influential and richest player in the Middle East scene,” and Putin would have to face potentially serious problems both there and at home.
“Terror inside Russia and against objects linked with it abroad, the taking prisoner and execution of Russian troops, the gradual broadening of a military presence in Syria and the prospect of being dragged into a full-scale war on the ground are only some of the undesirable but possible consequences,” von Eggert says.
At home, polls show that most Russians are not enthusiastic about any campaign in Syria and “the overwhelming majority of Russian Muslims are Sunnis.” Consequently, “the Kremlin’s struggle to save the Assad regime which is viewed namely as the hangman of Syrian Sunis is hardly going to please them.”
And thus Putin might discover that “leaving the Middle East without losing face…would be more difficult than doing so from Ukraine,” von Eggert says, offering in conclusion the following analogy that the Kremlin leader may ultimately have to face.
“The legitimization of a political regime with the help of ‘small victorious wars’ recalls a bicycle race: it is impossible to stop; one must keep pedaling. And thus risk a major defeat. Vladimir Putin, [by going into Syria as he has,] is risking just that.”
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Erdogan Says Turkey Cannot Endure Violation Of Its Airspace By Russia by support@pangea-cms.com (RFE/RL)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that his country "cannot endure" Russian aircraft violating its airspace along the Syrian border, warning that "an attack on Turkey means an attack on NATO."
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Iran's nuclear deal with world powers will raise economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa next year, as the lifting of sanctions brings a rebound in oil production and exports.
 РИА Новости |
ВКС России уничтожили штаб «Исламского государства» в окрестностях Пальмиры
Коммерсантъ Боевая авиация России нанесла удар по штабу террористической группировки «Исламское государство» (ИГ) рядом с поселением Сухни, расположенным в 28 км от Пальмиры, сообщает «РИА Новости» со ссылкой на сирийский военный источник. В результате авиаудара были ... Источник: ВКС РФ ударили по боевикам не в Пальмире, а вблизи городаРИА Новости Российская авиация нанесла удары по позициям ИГ вблизи ПальмирыСвободная Пресса Сирийские военные подтвердили данные об ударах России по боевикам под ПальмиройГазета.Ru Аргументы и факты -Forbes Россия -Информационное агентство ЮграPRO Все похожие статьи: 283 » |
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 РБК |
Лукашенко отказался от создания российской военной базы в Белоруссии
РБК Президент Белоруссии Александр Лукашенко заявил, что не обсуждал с Россией создание военной базы на территории Белоруссии. Ранее Владимир Путин распорядился подписать соглашение о создании в Белоруссии российской авиабазы. Президент Белоруссии Александр ... Лукашенко: украинский кризис отрезвил Запад по отношению к БелоруссииРИА Новости Лукашенко: Украинский кризис отрезвил взгляд Запада на БелоруссиюВзгляд Лукашенко: Белоруссия не вела переговоров по размещению российской авиабазыГазета.Ru Вести.Ru -Московский комсомолец -Ведомости Все похожие статьи: 122 » |
Analysts: US Syria Proxy Army Not Reliableby webdesk@voanews.com (Jamie Dettmer)
A loosely-coordinated group of Syrian rebel factions earmarked by U.S. officials as a proxy army to partner with in northern Syria lacks coherence and reliability, warn analysts and rival rebel commanders. Renamed the Syrian Arab Coalition last week by U.S. military commanders, the group would serve as an alternative to a ground force the Obama administration had hoped to recruit from scratch, train and equip. The loose coalition of Sunni Arab factions, who have been collaborating with Syrian Kurdish fighters along the border with Turkey, may be provided with arms in a U.S. plan that would have them support re-equipped Kurds in a major offensive on Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State terror group. According to U.S. officials, President Barack Obama gave the go-ahead at a meeting of the National Security Council last Thursday for the Pentagon to start directly rearming Syrian Kurds and the “Arab-Syrian opposition” as part of a strategy to put pressure on the Islamic State and to isolate Raqqa. At the same time the U.S.-led coalition would intensify strikes on the terror group with increased sorties launched from the NATO base at Incirlik in southern Turkey. The move comes as Russia appeared to be on the brink of ratcheting up its intervention in Syria, adding a ground element to an aerial bombing campaign started last week — one that has shaken up an already complex battlefield and prompted comparisons to the proxy wars of the Cold War era. Russian intervention President Vladimir Putin’s military liaison officer to the Russian parliament disclosed Monday a plan to send “volunteer” troops to Syria to help buttress Moscow’s ally President Bashar al-Assad. The Kremlin claims its main target is the same as Washington’s — namely, the Islamic State. That claim is questioned by Washington because most Russian airstrikes have targeted anti-Assad rebels in western and central Syria as opposed to IS strongholds in the east. U.S. officials insist they started to consider the re-supply plan for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, and their Sunni Arab allies before Russia launched its air campaign. And last month Gen. Lloyd Austin, commander of American forces in the Middle East, appeared to outline a changed U.S. strategy when he told a congressional panel that the Obama administration planned soon to put “a lot more pressure on key areas in Syria, like the city of Raqqa.” His comments were in the wake of the apparent acceptance by the Obama administration that an 18-month program known as train-and-equip to raise an indigenous Syrian Arab rebel proxy force to work with the U.S. to defeat IS had failed. But the perception here among Syrian rebel commanders is that Russia’s airstrikes have added urgency to Washington’s plan to have the Kurds and Sunni Arab proxies mount a major offensive against IS— a bid they suspect is meant to change dynamics on the ground quickly before the Russian intervention gets into stride and to try to stop Moscow from appearing to seize the initiative. Syrian Arab coalition Commanders with both the Western and Gulf-backed Free Syrian Army and Islamist militias in the Army of Conquest alliance, who have been spurned by Washington because of their links with al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, are critical of the likely beneficiaries of the planned U.S. arms supplies — the so-called Syrian Arab Coalition, whose factions they dub “opportunists.” They say the factions have a checkered history, one that has involved shifting allegiances and readiness at times to work with al-Nusra and the Islamic State. One of the major factions — Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa — collaborated with Jabhat al-Nusra in Raqqa before the town was captured by IS. It broke with the al-Qaida affiliate last year and joined a loose confederation known as the Euphrates Volcano, the basic forerunner of the Syrian Arab Coalition. Another faction in the new coalition, Jaysh al-Qasas, worked with IS in 2014. FSA commanders say its leader spends most of his time in Turkey and his fighters are most interested in looting. “They are fighters who have moved from one militia to another,” says Abdul Rahman, a commander with the Army of Mujahideen , which is aligned with Jaish al Fata, or the Army of Conquest, the Islamist rebel alliance.“Most of them are rejects. They are not reliable — we don’t trust them,” he told VOA. Adding to the widespread distrust among the main rebel brigades is an overall suspicion of the YPG itself, which has as its over-arching objective to establish an autonomous Kurdish State in northeast Syria. They call the Sunni Arab factions working with the YPG, “Kurdish parties.” FSA vs YPG FSA and Islamist commanders have warned the YPG to stay in Kurdish areas and not to push into Arab villages. Earlier this year, they accused the YPG of displacing Arab families in villages captured by the Kurds. Mutual suspicion between the FSA and Islamist rebel militias, and the Kurds has deepened as Kurdish-led forces have gone beyond their traditional home territory. In June, some of the armed groups at the heart of the Syrian Arab Coalition helped the YPG pull off a major and surprisingly easy victory, retaking the Syrian border town Tal Abayad from Islamic State extremists. But their contribution was marred when some of the Sunni Arab factions squabbled over who should govern the town after the jihadists left, prompting Kurdish exasperation, say town residents. “The Kurds let them haul up the Syrian rebel flag but they [the Arab militias] then started bickering about who would control the town,” says Mohammed, a border smuggler who has worked with a variety of rebel groups. “In the end, the Kurds stopped the argument by saying they did.” “I generally agree with the testimony of those rebels you have spoken to,” says Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, a fellow at U.S.-based think tank the Middle East Forum. He says that armed groups in one of the largest of the factions, the Dawn of Freedom, have “reputations for corruption.” “The main groups of the coalition are splinters from larger rebel militias and in the case of Dawn of Freedom it is essentially a regrouping of militias that had reputations for criminality in North Aleppo, such as Ghuraba al-Sham,” he told VOA. Some of the factions were thrown out of an Islamist rebel alliance. Al-Tamimi added: “The other components of the rebel allies with the YPG are small groups of locals who fled their homes in Deir ez-Zor and Jarabulus” after the Islamic State overran the towns. Some are members of the Shammar tribe in eastern Syria, which has suffered repeated IS reprisals and massacres. Al-Tamimi says the Syrian Arab Coalition factions “have their own agendas that ultimately conflict with the YPG's but they don't have the power to challenge the YPG political wing's governing authority over places like Tal Abyad. They simply don't compare with the YPG in terms of strength.” He and other analysts estimates the Syrian Arab Coalition’s numbers from 3,000 to 5,000 fighters; the YPG can field about 25,000. But al-Tamimi cautions that overall numbers are hard to assess with any firm reliability. During the months-long battle to keep the Kurdish border town of Kobani from falling into IS hands, the estimates of Sunni Arab fighters cooperating in the town with the YPG varied considerably. One of Dawn of Freedom’s leaders, Abu al-Layth, claimed 250 of his men went to Kobani but “the numbers steadily went down over time, from 160 fighters in a subsequent conversation down to 70.” Kurdish political activists say the numbers and military capabilities belie the potential of the Syrian Arab Coalition. Kovan Direj, who has worked with the YPG in northern Syria, said the Kurds have been careful to avoid subsuming the Sunni Arabs cooperating with them. The YPG “armed the Arabs to defend themselves,” he says. And the Coalition could be the vehicle for several Arab tribes — not just the Shammar — to avenge IS killings. “They only need weapons to start,” he added.
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 Reuters |
Oil hits month-high; eyes on less output, Saudi-Russia talks
Reuters NEW YORK Crude prices hit one-month highs on Tuesday after a new U.S. forecast showed tighter oil supplies next year, while and Russia, Saudi Arabia and other big producers hinted at further talks to support the market. Global crude benchmark Brent ... US oil settles up 72 cents, at $46.26 a barrelCNBC all 593 Hint Russia May Work With OPEC Sends Oil Prices SoaringRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty all 583 news articles » |
West Must Play It Cool With Putin (Op-Ed) by By Mark Galeotti
The more the West lets itself be shocked into responses by Putin, the more power it gives him and the more reason he has to continue to goad and needle, writes columnist Mark Galeotti.
RT |
ISIS using mosques as shelter as they know Russia will never hit them there ...
RT Islamic State terrorists are hiding in mosques because they know that Russian jets would never target such buildings, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said. He also revealed Moscow and Washington are to sign an agreement on coordinating flights. and more » |
TIME |
This Photo Shows Russia's Airstrikes on Syria in Action
TIME 30, Russia began conducting airstrikes, illustrated here in this screen grab of video taken from the underside of a Russian Su-24M bomber, against rebels seeking to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Russia, which supports Assad, insists it's ... Russia's weather turns politicalEyewitness News all 74 news articles » |
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Church Should Shun Derogatory Words on Gays, Vatican Synod Told by webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Catholics should stop using condescending language such as "pity" toward homosexuals and find ways to welcome them as sons and daughters of the Church, bishops have told a major gathering on the family. The comments supporting more inclusive language for homosexuals in the Church were made in the first two rounds of interventions at the closed-door gathering, known as a synod, Vatican officials told a news conference on Tuesday. The calls by over half a dozen bishops for more inclusive language on homosexuals stood out because conservative clerics made sure an interim report at a preliminary meeting last year deleted a passage they thought was too welcoming to gays. "[The bishops said] there must be an end to exclusionary language and a strong emphasis on embracing reality as it is. We should not be afraid of new and complex situations," Father Tom Rosica said in summarizing some of the interventions. He said that the bishops had called for "a new form of language, in particular in speaking of homosexuals ... we do not pity gay persons but we recognize them for who they are. They are our sons and daughters, our brothers and sisters, our neighbors and our colleagues." In a document written by former Pope Benedict before his election and still cited by conservatives, then Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger described homosexuals as "intrinsically disordered". Modern families Rosica, who attends the meetings, said the bishops who advocated a more welcoming Church for homosexuals argued that gays should not be treated as "outsiders" and the Church should extend "a hand of welcome to them (as) our flesh and blood". The synod of more than 300 bishops, delegates and observers, including 13 married couples, will be meeting for three weeks in the presence of Pope Francis to discuss how the 1.2 billion member Church can confront challenges facing the modern family. Since his election in 2013, Francis has given great hope to progressives who want him to forge ahead with his vision of a more inclusive Church that concentrates on mercy rather than the strict enforcement of rigid rules they see as antiquated. The bishops will discuss ways to defend the traditional family and make life-long marriage more appealing to young people while reaching out to disaffected Catholics such as homosexuals, co-habiting couples and the divorced. The gathering has been preceded by intense jockeying between conservatives and liberals on a host of sensitive issues. One key topic at the synod will be how to reach out to Catholics who have divorced and remarried in civil ceremonies. They are considered by the Church to be still married to their first spouse and living in a state of sin. Some bishops want a change to the rules that bars them from receiving sacraments such as communion. An introductory speech at the synod's opening on Monday led some to believe that the discussion on a possible change in rule concerning divorced Catholics was closed, but bishops at Tuesday's press conference disputed this. "The discussion is still open," said Italian Archbishop Claudio Celli.
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Clinton Seeks to Boost Image Ahead of 1st Debateby webdesk@voanews.com (Jim Malone)
The five Democrats running for president will get their moment in the spotlight in the first Democratic candidates' debate next Tuesday in Las Vegas. The stakes will be high for all of them, but especially for frontrunner Hillary Clinton and her main challenger, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Clinton has seen her once formidable advantage in the polls wither away as Sanders has struck a chord with liberal Democrats eager for an alternative to the former secretary of state. Looming over both of them is speculation about whether Vice President Joe Biden will enter the race, with a decision expected soon. Biden was invited to take part in the Las Vegas debate, but he declined. Clinton seeks makeover Clinton has been on a mission of late to improve her image, which has been battered by the controversy over her use of a private email while secretary of state. Some critics also have complained she is too controlled and often comes across as inauthentic. During a town hall meeting in Manchester, New Hampshire on Monday, Clinton made an impassioned plea for more gun control measures in the wake of last week’s mass shooting at a community college in Oregon. “So many of the parents of these precious children who were murdered have taken the unimaginable grief that they have been bearing and have tried to be the voices that we need to hear,” said Clinton, her voice quaking with emotion. In recent weeks, Clinton has tried to tackle her image problems more directly. She apologized for using a private email account, and on Saturday used humor to try and soften her image with a cameo appearance on NBC’s sketch comedy show “Saturday Night Live.” Firing back at Republicans Clinton issued a new campaign ad seizing on last week’s comments from Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy that the special House committee investigating the 2012 terrorist attacks on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, has been responsible for the drop in Clinton’s poll numbers. McCarthy later retracted the comment and expressed regret, but McCarthy’s comments are prominently displayed in the Clinton ad. Clinton testifies before the Benghazi committee on October 22. Recent public opinion polls show many Democrats would be open to a candidacy by Vice President Biden. “A lot of Democrats are uneasy about Clinton because of the email issue, and it evokes some of the old concerns about the Clinton’s and the degree to which they are targets of Republicans, the media and some of their own self-inflicted wounds,” said analyst Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute. Next week's debate could offer Clinton an opportunity to ease the concerns of some Democrats who are worried about her decline in the polls. “No party wants to just let someone walk to the nomination and they want choices,” said analyst John Fortier of the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. “It may not be that they are absolutely dissatisfied with Hillary Clinton, but do they want another look at someone? And they don’t want to just give it to her without the chance of some other significant figure being in the race.” Sanders surges, Biden deliberates Bernie Sanders also has a huge opportunity in the debate to expand on his message focused on income inequality. Sanders drew a huge crowd in Boston last weekend and even has reached out to conservative audiences like the students at Liberty University in Virginia. “We live, and I hope most of you know this, in the wealthiest country in the history of the world," Sanders said. "But most Americans don’t know that because almost all of that wealth and income is going to the top one percent.” Biden is expected to announce his decision soon and if he runs, analysts predict it could scramble the race. But Ornstein said it's also clear Biden is agonizing about his decision, after the death earlier this year of his son Beau. "In the aftermath of a tragedy like losing a child, you are searching for meaning in your life and what you can do to advance that legacy, Ornstein said. "And you can imagine Biden first saying, ‘I just can’t do it emotionally right now’. But you could also imagine him saying, ‘this is the best way for me to continue the legacy left by my wonderful son Beau.” The other three Democrats in next week’s debate are former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, former Virginia senator Jim Webb and former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee. The next Republican debate is scheduled for October 28 at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
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On the anniversary of Egypt's 1973 military victory in the Sinai Peninsula, supporters of then-General Hosni Mubarak celebrate outside the hospital where he resides. The ousted president is set to stand trial again next month for the deaths of hundreds of protesters in 2011, but supporters say he remains an Egyptian hero.
The MPs urge Vladimir Putin to create a nationwide, state-sponsored youth movement to "unify the nation's youth"
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 Yahoo News |
Russia hits 12 IS targets on seventh day of strikes
Yahoo News Moscow (AFP) - Russian jets carried out air strikes on 12 Islamic State sites in Syria on Tuesday, the defence ministry said, as Moscow expanded its week-old bombing campaign in the war-torn country. and more » |
Putin thinks that by storming into Syria he has taken rightful leadership of the winning coalition
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