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Today's Headlines and Commentary by Cody M. Poplin
Headlines continue to be dominated by the battle between the FBI and Apple taking place in the Central District of California. If you’re just catching up, here’s what’s happening: a magistrate judge in the CDCA ordered Apple on Tuesday to comply with a federal warrant and help the FBI access data on the phone of Syed Rizwan Farook, one of the assailants in the San Bernardino attack that killed 14 people. That attack was inspired by the Islamic State. Yesterday, Apple CEO Tim Cook released a scathing letter, vowing to fight the judicial order and claiming that the company will not “build a backdoor to the iPhone.” White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest objected to that characterization however, arguing that the government only wants help in unlocking one iPhone, and is not asking Apple “to create a new back door to...their products.”
Today, the New York Times carries the backstory to the drama, noting that for months federal prosecutors and Apple’s attorneys have “held closely guarded discussions” on the case, but when talks collapsed, a federal magistrate judge “ordered Apple to bypass security functions on the phone.” In the Washington Post, Ellen Nakashima explains “why Apple is in a historic fight with the government over one iPhone,” pointing out that Cook’s letter “verged on the apocalyptic,” but that the showdown has “been years in the making.” As the battle went into overdrive on Wednesday, the EEF, ACLU, and Amnesty International all endorsed Apple’s position. Their statements are available at the Verge.
Writing in the Daily Beast, Shane Harris confirms that Apple has unlocked iPhones for the federal government on 70 other occasions, and suggests that the company is only refusing to play ball now because it might “tarnish the Apple brand.” Elsewhere, Quartz reports that while Apple has been “bordering on defiant” in the United States, the company “appears to take a different tack in dealing with data security demands from China,” where in January 2015, the state-run People’s Daily claimed that “Apple had agreed to security checks by the Chinese government.” Apple considers China a key growth market.
In Lawfare, Susan Hennessey and Benjamin Wittes walk through the legal issues at play in the dispute, and implore readers to remember: “Apple is selling you a phone, not civil liberties.” Nick Weaver got in on the Apple action too, suggesting that the court order isn’t “a slippery slope, but a jump off the cliff,” as the precedent the order creates would be “catastrophic.” Herb Lin highlightedApple’s response, calling the company’s definition of a backdoor “unreasonable,” but also noting he would prefer for legislative clarification on the issue, instead of letting a magistrate judge determine what is and isn’t reasonable. For more on why that hasn’t happened, see Susan and Ben’s piece, mentioned earlier.
Pivoting to Syria: According to the New York Times, “more than 100 trucks laden with emergency food and medicine began deliveries on Wednesday to tens of thousands of desperate Syrians in five locations besieged for months by the civil war.” By the end of Wednesday, the towns of Madaya, Zabadani, Fouaa, Kfarya, and the Damascus suburb of Moadamiyeh had all received some aid, although the convoys will continue to arrive throughout Thursday. Parties to the conflict in Syria are scheduled to meet today in Geneva to discuss expanded aid deliveries to hundreds of thousands of people in 15 other besieged towns. The Times has more.
Reuters reports that an Iraqi court has sentenced 40 members of the Islamic State to death for their involvement in the mass murder of 1,700 of Iraqi soldiers in 2014. Seven defendants were acquitted for a lack of evidence. Even so, Amnesty International has denounced the trial as “fundamentally flawed.”
A car bomb ripped through a military convoy in the administrative heart of Ankara yesterday, killing at least 28 people and wounding more than 60 others. According to the New York Times, the attack highlights once again “the country’s vulnerability to the Syrian war and revitalized Kurdish insurgency.” While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu blamed a member of the Syrian Kurdish YPG, which the United States has supported in its battle against the Islamic State. Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist organization deeply linked with the PKK. Reuters notes that “within hours, Turkish warplanes bombed bases in northern Iraq of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).” Turkey fears that Kurdish advances on the Iraqi and Syrian sides of the border will encourage separatists groups at home and has in recent weeks shelled YPG positions in Syria. Both the YPG and the PKK have denied involvement.
Roy Gutman explains Turkish anxieties, and how both the United States and Russia are encouraging them, over in Foreign Policy.
According to Russian state media, Moscow will deliver the first S-300 air defense system to Iran today. A deal to deliver the sophisticated air defense system was inked last year following the signing of the nuclear deal with Tehran.
Is Mokhtar Belmokhtar dead? And will we ever know the answer? Those two questions, as Missy Ryan of the Washington Post reports, still plague officials at Joint Special Operations Command, who were once sure they had killed the Algerian militant in June of last year. Eight months later, however,“U.S. military and intelligence agencies remain unsure whether Belmokhtar was indeed killed.” Ryan notes that this “uncertainty highlights the sometimes limited intelligence surrounding the strikes that have becomes a hallmark” of the Obama administration response to terrorism in countries where the U.S. has a limited military presence.
The New York Times reports today that “Afghan security forces, possibly accompanied by NATO advisers, raided a hospital south of Kabul and abducted and then killed at least three men suspected of being insurgents.” The raid, which took place in the Day Mirdad district of Wardak Province and targeted a hospital run by the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan, was verified by hospital officials and local residents. Initial reports suggest that between three and five people were killed. Colonel Michael T. Lawhorn, a spokesman for the American-led NATO coalition denied involvement, saying that “at this point, we have no reports of any coalition operations near a hospital.”
Elsewhere, the Times reports that according to a new report from Human Rights Watch, the Taliban used child soldiers in battle when it overran Kunduz last year. The group documented at least 13 cases of children recruited to fight, while the United Nations has documented “that children as young as 10 participated in the fighting.”
The Times’s coverage continues with a report from Azam Ahmed on the steps the Taliban has taken to penetrate “every stage of Afghan opium chain,” operating at times as a jihadist insurgency and at others as an international drug cartel.
On Saturday, al Shabaab claimed responsibility for the bomb that ripped a hole in the cabin of a Daallo Airlines flight on February 2nd. The editorial board of the Wall Street Journal notes that amidst the chaos in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the growing threat of jihadists groups throughout Africa has been neglected.
Boko Haram, of course, is a central player in what the Journal calls “Africa’s terror crescent." Buzzfeed New correspondent Monica Mark shares the harrowing story of how the militant group turns its captives into suicide bombers, grooming young women through psychological abuse and gifts to kill for the very gunman that kidnapped them.
Reuters writes that the Kenyan government, which has faced its share of al Shabaab attacks, plans to build a new prison to house “violent and extremist offenders.” The new prison would be built in order to keep radical elements from influencing other prisoners, according to President Uhuru Kenyatta. Kenyatta did not provide a timeline for the prison’s construction.
Breaking news today from the White House as President Barack Obama announced that he will make a historic trip to Cuba next month, marking the first presidential visit to the island nation in almost 90 years. The president plans to meet with Cuban President Raul Castro, entrepreneurs, and “Cubans from different walks of life” while he is in the country.
Military Commissions Judge James Pohl yesterday refused to allow accused 9/11 conspirator Walid bin Attash to fire his defense counsel and also refused to allow his defender Cheryl Bormann to quit the case. After the ruling, Bin Attash announced that he would boycott the remaining proceedings and would no longer meet with Ms. Bormann. The Miami Herald has more on the proceedings at Guantanamo Bay.
Parting Shot: Want to win that Scalia replacement debate with your friends this weekend? The kind folks at Volokh Conspiracy provide the ammunition, with “a (spotty) history of confirming court nominees” in election years.
ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare
Bobby alerted us to the news of the ongoing drama between the FBI and Apple, noting that the encryption debate has now moved from Congress to the courtroom, and offered his analysis of Apple CEO Tim Cook’s statement regarding the magistrate judge’s order.
Herb Lin also highlighted Apple’s response, calling Apple’s definition of a backdoor “unreasonable,” but also noting he would prefer for legislative clarification on the issue and not just what a magistrate judge determines to be reasonable.
Nick Weaver jumped in on the Apple action too, suggesting that the court order isn’t “a slippery slope, but a jump off the cliff.”
Cody brought our attention to a newly released NSA Inspector General report that suggests the government receives far less data from Section 702 collection than critics originally suspected.
Peter Margulies wrote on the clash in U.S. and E.U. approaches to terrorist sanctions.
In light of the New York Times’s story on “Nitro Zeus,” Herb Lin asked “what do we do in the aftermath of a planned cyberattack that is revealed?”
Finally, Steve Vladeck offered “ a more circumspect take on Justice Scalia and national security.”
Email the Roundup Team noteworthy law and security-related articles to include, and follow us onTwitter and Facebook for additional commentary on these issues. Sign up to receive Lawfare in your inbox. Visit our Events Calendar to learn about upcoming national security events, and check out relevant job openings on our Job Board.
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The scientist could be seen coming and going from his home during 10 hours of surveillance footage
Most crimes committed by migrants in 2015 were theft, counterfeiting and travelling on public transport without tickets
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The protesters shout 'we are the people' and 'go home' at the refugees
Russia Law-Enforcers Clash in Airport Owner's Case
ABC News Russia's law enforcement agencies have clashed in court over the case of a billionaire owner of the nation's biggest airport linked to a deadly bombing five years ago. Dmitry Kamenshchik, the owner of Moscow's Domodedovo airport, was accused by the ... and more » |
RT |
Russia to initiate UN Security Council meeting over Turkey's plans to send troops to northern Syria
RT Moscow is concerned about the escalation of tensions on the Syrian-Turkish border, and "Turkey's announced plans to put boots on the ground in northern Syria," Maria Zakharova,Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Friday, adding that the ... Russia to call UN Security Council session on Syria on FridayReuters UK Russia says any incursion into Syria would be illegalYahoo News Russia Wants UN To Discuss Turkey's Syria ThreatRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty Jerusalem Post Israel News -Sputnik International all 126 news articles » |
Can Scientists Prove Zika Virus Causing Birth Defects?by webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
Scientists suspect an outbreak of the Zika virus is behind a surge in a rare birth defect in Brazil. But how are they going to prove it? Authorities in the South American country were quick to make the link last fall. The health minister last week said he was “absolutely sure” that the mosquito-borne virus is a cause. But others aren't so certain. While the evidence has been mounting, so far it is circumstantial. “The simple presence of the virus doesn't mean it caused the birth defect. It means there's a probability,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan epidemiologist. The investigation is still in its early stages. It began after Brazilian doctors noticed an increase last fall in babies with a birth defect called microcephaly, which has a number of causes. The cases closely followed the country's first outbreak of the tropical virus Zika, which was thought to cause no more than a mild illness that clears up in a week. Microcephaly hadn't been seen in past Zika outbreaks. Babies with the condition have a smaller than normal head and often have a smaller brain that hasn't developed properly. Lab tests have detected the virus in the brain tissue of a few babies with microcephaly. Proving the cause is a bit like prosecuting a murder investigation, with Zika as the apparent killer but a lot of unanswered questions, said Dr. Ernesto Marques, a University of Pittsburgh microbiologist who is collaborating with Brazilian researchers. “What you have so far, the victim is there, and you find a person right there that has a smoking gun in his hand,” Marques said. “But you still need to close the deal.” The investigation poses special challenges. There's currently no good animal substitute for humans to study the virus. And it's not considered ethical to infect people, especially pregnant women, in an experiment to see what happens - not when there seems to be a real chance that a volunteer could be seriously harmed. So researchers are turning to other kinds of studies to try to establish whether Zika or some other factor is causing the birth defect or, also, a paralyzing condition called Guillain-Barre. Five Latin America countries with Zika outbreaks are reporting an uptick in that condition in adults. One method is quick-and-dirty research called a case-control study, which looks back in time after an illness or condition has occurred. For the birth defect research, that means recruiting a group of women with babies born with microcephaly and trying to sort out what may have happened during their pregnancy to spark the condition. For comparison, they will query women whose infants don't have the birth defect. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is involved in one such a study set to start next week in the Brazilian state of Paraiba. It will focus on 100 babies with microcephaly and at least 100 more without. Investigators will take blood samples from the mothers to check for signs of an earlier Zika infection. They also will ask not only about Zika infections but other possible factors, like other germs or poisons in the environment. Some experts suggest that perhaps Zika needs an accomplice - like malnutrition or an infection with another tropical illness like dengue - to cause serious problems. A similar study, led by Brazil, is investigating 200 babies with microcephaly and 400 without. Results are due in April. “That will be the first one to tell us if there's strong evidence,” Dr. Marcos Espinal of the Pan American Health Organization told reporters Thursday. The CDC was in the coastal city of Salvador last month to help health officials with another look-back study, this one targeting Guillain-Barre. They tested 40 people who had the condition, and 80 people who didn't, said Dr. James Sejvar, who led the CDC team. Such studies are hardly perfect. People often have trouble remembering every detail from six months ago - for example, when they might have been bitten by mosquitoes, the primary source of Zika infections. While these studies can sort out potential causes, experts say they need to be confirmed with research that follows people forward. Colombia, for example, will be following 2,000 Zika-infected pregnant women to see what happens with them and their pregnancies, Espinal said. In Brazil, Zika's possible link to microcephaly emerged in September, when a spike in babies born with the condition got the attention of Dr. Vanessa van der Linden, a pediatric neurologist at a hospital in northeast Recife that works with disabled children. Initially, Van der Linden and other doctors looked for the usual causes of microcephaly, such as toxoplasmosis, rubella, HIV, and cytomegalovirus. None were found. But most of the mothers had something in common: blotches and skin rashes early in their pregnancies that seemed consistent with Zika. That was the genesis of the link. It's all been difficult to sort out, though, because Brazil wasn't keeping good track of microcephaly cases before Zika arrived. They're still determining how many of the reported cases are really microcephaly and involve a Zika infection. One of the puzzling questions facing researchers: Why have so many severe health problems been reported in Brazil, but comparatively few in other Latin America or Caribbean countries with Zika? Will we soon see similar spikes elsewhere, or is the Brazilian setting somehow unique? Health officials are closely watching Colombia, which had a Zika outbreak after Brazil and so far has not seen a spike in microcephaly cases. If there is, it would be apparent by June and would help finger Zika as the culprit, Espinal said. It will take a combination of studies and laboratory evidence to finally determine if Zika is the villain it appears to be, experts say. “This is going to be solved,” said Dr. Farrah Mateen, a Harvard researcher. “It's just a matter of doing the research in the right way.”
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LIVE UPDATES: An Estonian businessman was detained February 11 at Moscow’s Sheremetyovo Airport on suspicion of espionage
Welcome to our column, Russia Update, where we will be closely following day-to-day developments in Russia, including the Russian government’s foreign and domestic policies.
The previous issue is here.
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–The Non-Hybrid War
–Kashin Explains His ‘Letter to Leaders’ on ‘Fontanka Office’
–TV Rain Interviews Volunteer Fighter Back from Donbass
–‘I Was on Active Duty’: Interview with Captured GRU Officer Aleksandrov
–The Non-Hybrid War
–Kashin Explains His ‘Letter to Leaders’ on ‘Fontanka Office’
–TV Rain Interviews Volunteer Fighter Back from Donbass
–‘I Was on Active Duty’: Interview with Captured GRU Officer Aleksandrov
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Польский президент обвинил Россию в разжигании холодной войны
Росбалт.RU Комментируя заявление российского премьера Дмитрия Медведева на конференции по безопасности в Мюнхене, Дуда в интервью Reuters заявил, что «если посмотреть на слова мистера Медведева о холодной войне, а затем на действия России, то станет понятно, кто добивается ... Дуда: Россия хочет новой холодной войныВзгляд Польша обвиняет Россию в провоцировании новой холодной войныИА REGNUM Президент Польши обвинил Россию в разжигании новой «холодной войны»BFM.Ru Газета.Ru -Эксперт Online- Новости 24 часа - MyNewsOnline24.ru Все похожие статьи: 79 » |
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Is Russia 'Weaponizing Refugees' To Advance Its Geopolitical Goals? by support@pangea-cms.com (Ron Synovitz)
A debate is emerging about whether the Kremlin is intentionally exacerbating Syria's humanitarian catastrophe or merely capitalizing on the tragedy.
Even From Sidelines, US Governors Fixated on White House Race by webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
Nearly three-quarters of the nation's governors are gathering this weekend in Washington for wide-ranging discussions of public policy, including a heroin epidemic, the threat of terrorism and the possibility of another recession. But when they go out to dinner afterward, they'll be talking about what the rest of Washington is obsessed with: presidential politics. "As soon as we adjourn for the evening, it is topic No. 1, no question about it," said Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe of Virginia, the vice chairman of the National Governors Association and a friend and supporter of Hillary Clinton. "Who's up, who's down, what's going to happen?" The governors' association has historically struggled to gain attention for its bipartisan gatherings. And the governors recognize that the task may be more difficult than ever this year, given the bickering between Clinton and Bernie Sanders and Republican front-runner Donald Trump's headline-grabbing style. "You can be drowned out by other events of the day that the press decides is more important," said Republican Gov. Gary Herbert of Utah, the chairman of the association. "Some of our stuff is pretty mundane." One thing this election has shown: For presidential candidates, being a governor isn't what it used to be. Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, once touted as a formidable White House contender, dropped out of the race last September. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey suspended his campaign after a sixth-place finish in the GOP New Hampshire primary. Former governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Martin O'Malley of Maryland also ended their presidential bids. And former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is struggling to remain relevant in the GOP field. The only governor who's still running for president, Republican John Kasich of Ohio, is skipping the winter meeting of the governors' association, but that's nothing new. His administration decided in 2011 to stop paying annual dues to the group, a step that Republican governors in Florida, Idaho, Maine, South Carolina and Texas have also taken. While the governors cited budget concerns when they stopped paying dues, some conservatives have also criticized the NGA for its role in developing the Common Core academic standards. Democrats Jerry Brown of California and Andrew Cuomo of New York and Republican Bruce Rautner of Illinois are also staying home, leaving the meeting without the governors of the nation's five most populous states. The association's new executive director, Scott Pattison, took over in December with a clear mandate: Make the NGA more relevant. He acknowledges it won't be easy, especially during an election year. "It seems that it's just so much more interesting to focus on some of the more dramatic rhetoric," Pattison said. The governors are trying to send Washington the message that they don't have the luxury of retreating into partisan gridlock. Whether it's addiction to heroin and other opioids, a possible economic downturn or natural disasters or terrorist attacks within their borders, governors are expected to take action and solve problems. Herbert and McAuliffe have met in recent weeks with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan, as well as the House and Senate Democratic leaders. "Collectively, we all have similar issues that we're dealing with," McAuliffe said. "We want to work closer with Washington because we need more action out of Washington." On Thursday, the governors released an 18-point series of recommendations for addressing opioid addiction, which is killing 78 Americans daily, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Topping the governors' wish list is for Congress to authorize emergency funding to states to address the crisis. Meanwhile, the governors are embracing the new mandate from Congress for states to develop their own metrics for public education measures. One of the architects of that bill, Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, will receive a first-of-its-kind award from the governors' association for collaboration between federal and state leaders. The award is part of an effort by the governors' association to distance itself from Common Core, which some critics saw as symptomatic of federal overreach into education policy. "We've totally moved beyond Common Core," Pattison said. Democratic Gov. Jack Markell of Delaware said the governors' association meeting usually gives him good ideas to bring home to his state, whether anybody pays attention or not. "We don't get measured based on whether we give a great speech," he said. "We get measured on whether we get things done. We, of course, as governors, think that is the right measuring stick."
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Russia's Foreign Ministry says it plans to call a session of the United Nations Security Council on February 19 to discuss statements by the Turkish government about a possible ground operation in Syria.
Big Tech Companies Join Apple in Encryption Fightby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
The tech industry is starting to line up with Apple in its fight against the federal government over the encryption it uses to keep iPhones secure. Earlier this week, a U.S. magistrate ordered Apple to help investigators break into an iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino mass shooters. Apple has until next Tuesday to challenge that ruling, setting the stage for a legal clash that could determine whether tech companies or government authorities get the final say on just how secure devices like smartphones can be. CEO Tim Cook decried the order on Tuesday, saying it would degrade iPhone security and make users more vulnerable to spies and cyber thieves. Increasingly, other prominent tech companies agree. "We stand with @tim_cook and Apple (and thank him for his leadership)!'' Twitter chief executive Jack Dorsey wrote in a tweet Thursday afternoon. In a statement late Thursday, Facebook said it condemns terrorism and also appreciates the essential work of law enforcement in keeping people safe. But it said it will "fight aggressively'' against requirements for companies to weaken the security of their systems. "These demands would create a chilling precedent and obstruct companies' efforts to secure their products,'' the statement said. Google CEO Sundar Pichai had earlier voiced support for Apple in a series of tweets. "Forcing companies to enable hacking could compromise users' privacy,'' Pichai wrote on Wednesday, adding that the case "could be a troubling precedent.'' Apple's recent iPhones use encryption security that Apple itself can't unlock. The government isn't asking Apple to help break the iPhone's encryption directly, but to disable other security measures that prevent attempts to guess the phone's passcode. Cook argues that once such a tool is available, "the technique could be used over and over again, on any number of devices.'' Law enforcement insists that safeguards could be employed to limit use of the workaround to the particular phone at hand. On Tuesday, Cook posted a 1,117-word open letter that contended the FBI's request might have implications "far beyond the legal case at hand.'' For months, Cook has engaged in a sharp, public debate with government officials over his company's decision to shield the data of iPhone users with strong encryption - essentially locking up people's photos, text messages and other data so securely that even Apple can't get at it. Law-enforcement officials from FBI Director James Comey on down have complained that terrorists and criminals may use that encryption as a shield. While tech companies have spoken against broad government surveillance in the past, the Obama administration has recently sought to enlist the tech industry's help in fighting terrorism. Several companies have recently heeded the administration's request for voluntary efforts aimed at countering terrorist postings on social media. Civil liberties groups warned the fallout from the San Bernardino dispute could extend beyond Apple. "This is asking a company to build a digital defect, a design flaw, into their products,'' said Nuala O'Connor of the Center for Democracy and Technology, a Washington-based group that has criticized government surveillance. In a statement, the center warned that other companies could face similar orders in the future. Others said a government victory could encourage regimes in China and other countries to make similar requests for access to smartphone data. Apple sells millions of iPhones in China, which has become the company's second-largest market. "This case is going to affect everyone's privacy and security around the world,'' said Lee Tien, a staff attorney for the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a digital rights group in San Francisco. The case turns on an 18th-century law that the government has invoked to require private assistance with law enforcement efforts. Apple has also challenged a federal search warrant based on the same law in a Brooklyn drug case. Apple has complied with previous orders invoking that law _ the All Writs Act of 1789 - although it has argued the circumstances were different. Cook may have no choice but to mount a legal challenge, given his very public commitment to protecting customer data. Two fellows at the Brookings Institution - one of them a former lawyer for the National Security Agency - criticized that stance Thursday, writing that Apple's ``self-presentation as crusading on behalf of the privacy of its customers is largely self-congratulatory nonsense.'' Cook has made privacy protection a part of Apple's marketing strategy, drawing a contrast with companies like Google and Facebook that sell advertising based on customers' online behavior. Apple "can't be seen now as doing something that would make their products less safe,'' said Wendy Patrick, who lectures about business ethics at San Diego State University. " I think everyone saw this issue coming down the pike and Apple always knew it was going to push back when the moment came.'' In doing so, Apple risks alienating consumers who put a higher value on national security than privacy. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found 82 percent of U.S. adults deemed government surveillance of suspected terrorists to be acceptable. Apple's stance drew fire Wednesday from GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and commentators on Fox News. Only 40 percent of the Pew respondents said it's acceptable for the government to monitor U.S. citizens, however. The survey also found nearly three-fourths of U.S. adults consider it "very important'' to be in control over who can retrieve personal information about them.
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With Syrian government forces advancing on the city of Aleppo, thousands of people have been fleeing north towards the Turkish border. Some have flooded into the Bab al-Salam refugee camp, located inside Syria, and operated by a Turkish NGO. RFE/RL's Current Time TV correspondent Shahida Yakub has this report. (Camera: Mohammad al-Mahmoud)
Reuters/Sergei KarpukhinAbdulrahman Al-Rassi, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Russia, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Tuesday, a group of countries that include Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed in principle to freeze oil-production rates. On the surface, this sounds like a good thing. But it’s really just a bunch of bull.
As regular Growth Stock Wire readers know, oil prices fell from more than $105 per barrel in mid-2014 to about $30 per barrel now. That’s a 70%-plus fall in just 18 months.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), the world’s oil supply rose from 91 million barrels per day in 2013 to 96.3 million barrels per day in October 2015 (the latest data available). That’s a 6% increase in supply in just two years.
Meanwhile, demand isn’t increasing as fast as supply is. World oil demand was 91.2 million barrels per day in 2013. The latest EIA estimate puts it around 92.8 million barrels per day as of September 2015 — an increase of less than 2%.
That means the “surplus” oil (supply minus demand) went from about -200,000 barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels per day. That’s why oil prices collapsed.
Many folks in the oil industry want this production-freeze deal to make a difference in the oil price right away. But it won’t. Here’s why... The deal is important because Saudi Arabia and Russia make up 24% of the world’s oil production. These two oil titans agreed to stop increasing production... except that the agreement is coming while we’re near all-time record volumes of oil.
In other words, these countries couldn’t really produce that much more oil anyway. You can see what I mean on the chart below:
The problem is, the one country that could massively increase oil production — Iran — hasn’t agreed to the deal yet. The deal is contingent on Iran’s agreement. And if you know anything about Iran and Saudi Arabia’s relationship, you know this deal is already in doubt. Saudi Arabia and Iran’s relationship is terrible, and Iran isn’t about to agree to restrict oil production right now after 35 years of sanctions.
Iran plans to increase production between 500,000 and 1 million barrels of oil per day. That will add much-needed foreign currency to Iran’s economy. If the deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia hinges on Iran, it’s dead in the water already.
The only way for oil prices to rise from here is if world demand increases and we’re able to consume the oil surplus. Oil-production freezes like this are useless political baloney. They don’t fix the fundamental issue... and that’s what really matters.
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