Shiite leader Hassan Nasrallah Tuesday threatened to shot missile at the ammonia plan in Haifa Bay. In a broadcast speech, he quoted Israeli experts as comparing the effect of a direct hit to an ammonia storage depot to that of a nuclear bomb. The death toll could rise to 800,000, he said.
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By Barbara Opall-Rome, Defense News 3:25 p.m. EST February 16, 2016
The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, gives a speech in Beirut on Nov. 14, 2013. On Feb. 16, 2016, he cited reports in the Israeli media about the vulnerabilities of an ammonia storage tank in Haifa Bay containing more than 15,000 tons of ammonia gas.(Photo: Anwar Amro/AFP via Getty Images)
TEL AVIV — Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah assured supporters Tuesday that it is deterring a third war in Lebanon with its enhanced capabilities, including the ability to extract damage akin to a “nuclear bomb” with one successful salvo strike on an ammonia storage facility in Israel’s northern city of Haifa.
In a televised speech commemorating Martyr Leaders Day in Beirut, Nasrallah cited reports in the Israeli media about the vulnerabilities of an ammonia storage tank in Haifa Bay containing more than 15,000 tons of ammonia gas.
“The inhabitants of Haifa are afraid of an attack … that will lead to the death of tens of thousands of inhabitants out of a population of some 800,000. What does this mean? It means that a few missiles on this ammonia site could have the result of a nuclear bomb,” Nasrallah said, according to a simultaneous English translation carried on Iran’s Press TV.
“The resistance in Lebanon, which is supported by the people, have new capabilities, offensive and defensive. We are capable of inflicting defeat on Israel in any war."
Invoking the name of Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkott, the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, who as director of operations during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war championed the so-called Dahiya doctrine of high-intensity, asymmetric urban battle, Nasrallah said Hezbollah is capable of offsetting Israeli military superiority.
“Eisenkott speaks about the Dahiya equation,” Nasrallah said of the Shiite stronghold in south Beirut. “He speaks about the need to completely bring south Beirut to rubble.
“So if you — Eisenkott — how many missiles will you need [to achieve this]? How many days?” Nasrallah said. “Our missiles can target any area in occupied Palestine. We must retain them because it will prevent a third Lebanon war. We must be ready for this war in order to prevent.”
The Hezbollah leader assured supporters that “there is no need to fear an Israeli war” because “Israel decided that it would only wage war if a quick victory is guaranteed."
“The one thing that prevents Israel from launching a war — after the experience of the second Lebanon war ... is its knowledge that a clear, decisive and quick victory is not assured,” he said. "We will not retreat, surrender or weaken. We will continue with our qualitative and quantitative and materiel capabilities. The psychological war against us will have no use.”
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman, said the military has no comment on Nasrallah’s Feb. 16 address.
Email: bopallrome@defensenews.com
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Обсуждался ход реализации подписанного в январе 2015 года межправительственного Соглашения о военном сотрудничестве, которое заложило правовую основу российско-иранского взаимодействия в этой сфере.
New Iranian Cultural Center in Kirkuk Stirs Concernsby webdesk@voanews.com (Rikar Hussein, Mehdi Jedinia)
The opening of an Iranian cultural and sports center in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk has sparked fears that Iran is trying to gain a foothold in a city already torn by ethnic-religious tensions. The Khomeini Cultural and Sports Center was inaugurated last week to coincide with the 37th anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iranian authorities say the center is solely a space for sports and socializing. “Imam Khomeini said the Islamic Revolution is a light to the entire world,” Murtaza Abadi, the Iranian Consul General in Irbil, said during the opening ceremony. “Today, thirty seven years after the revolution… we give this cultural and sports center as a gift to the residents of Kirkuk.” But the center is sparking a wave of criticism in this mainly Kurdish enclave from people who fear Tehran’s growing impact in the affairs of Iraq. Iranian influence in Iraq steadily increased after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The battle against the Islamic State further raised its clout, which includes direct support to Iraq’s Shi’ite militias, analysts say. Iran has opened five cultural centers in Iraq since 2003, including one in Baghdad which opened in June 2015. Suspicions abound Kamaran Kirkuky, a member of Kirkuk’s Provincial Council, told VOA that he was concerned that the center was going to be used for “other purposes.” “Iran can’t help Iraq and Kurdistan,” he said. “We have learned from experience that Iran’s projects don’t provide anything good.” Kirkuky said he was afraid that the Iraqi Shi’ite militia, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), would increase their presence in Kirkuk by using the center. “Some members of PMF would have an active role in the center. Shi’ites in general have become very active in Kirkuk recently,” Kirkuky told VOA. Hasan Jumma, a writer inside Kirkuk, told VOA that opening the center was a ‘shameful’ act and was ‘rejected’ by majority of writers, intellectuals, and journalists. Jumma said there was already a cultural and sports center in the city and there was no need for letting Iran open a center under Khomeini’s name. “This is an act of invading Kurdistan by opening up centers, schools, and medical clinics which will increase the cultural and political influence of Iran,” Hasan said. But a former project manager of Iran’s Mapna Group, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told VOA that an agreement for the construction of the center was signed with Kirkuk officials 14 months ago. It was built by a satellite company related to Mapna Group and cost about $400,000, he said. “The aim of the center is to attract all major cultural and sporting events in the region under one roof,” the manager said. Iran established cultural centers around the world after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. These centers are guided by Islamic Culture and Relations Organization, which, according to the organization’s objectives, aims to create “awareness among the people of the world regarding the principles, objectives and the stance of the Islamic Revolution of Iran as well as the role it plays in the international arena.” The governor of Kirkuk, Najmaldin Karim, praised the Shi’ite-led Iranian government for constructing the center in Kirkuk and its continuing role in Iraq. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has always helped Iraqis and has had a remarkable position in the fight against IS (Islamic State) terrorists from July 2014 until now,” he said.
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Michel Forst, the expert, said the advocates faced criticism and that those aiding women, ethnic minorities and gays were most at risk.
Economic and political instability in Kiev is getting worse and Russia is poised to take advantage. But that’s no reason for doing nothing. On the contrary
That Ukraine’s path towards something approximating to liberal democracy would be winding and difficult was always obvious. That its 40 million people have shown a lot of resilience in trying to reach that goal must, however, not be forgotten. As Kiev finds itself on the brink of a new political crisis, with its government surviving a vote of no-confidence, and the war still grinding on in the east, it is important to recall the wider historical backdrop.
The first time that students camped out in the centre of Kiev to protest against autocracy was in 1989 – the year the communist bloc crumbled. The 2014 Maidan popular uprising, which was triggered by a widespread desire to see ties with the European Union deepened (and not thwarted by the Kremlin) surprised many outside Ukraine – but it had deep roots. The street revolt did not just reflect disgust with Viktor Yanukovych’s corrupt, autocratic Moscow-backed regime; it also carried a nation’s memory of Soviet-era repressions: the state-provoked famine of the 1930s, the deportations to the Gulag, and the hounding of dissidents – some of whom, like Leonid Plyushch, were locked up in psychiatric wards. It is easy to forget, when events accelerate, as they are now doing again, the deeper reasons for Ukraine’s political evolution and the motives that drive civil society there. European leaders must not lose that sense of perspective.
Continue reading...Moscow Blocked Nine Times as Many Websites in 2015 as in 2014, Agora Reports by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, February 16 – Moscow blocked nine times as many websites on the Runet in 2015 than it had in 2014 and earlier years, according to the Agora human rights organization; but at the same time, the authorities increasingly recognize that they are losing this battle as Russian Internet users turn to workarounds and foreign sites.
Agora, which the Russian authorities are currently working through the courts to close down (day.kiev.ua/ru/blog/politika/pristupit-k-likvidacii), has released what may be its last annual report about the state of the Internet in Russia. Its conclusions are disturbing (echo.msk.ru/news/1713536-echo.html, kasparov.ru/material.php?id=56C2E6641E89D and meduza.io/feature/2016/02/16/malo-idey-no-mnogo-blokirovok).
The key numbers are these: In 2014, the Russian government blocked 1019 Runet sites, approximately the same number that it had been blocking in recent years; but in 2015, it blocked 9022. Moreover, it sent people to prison for the first time for publishing on the Internet and dramatically expanded the number of people subject to criminal and administrative sanctions.
Most of these official actions were taken on the basis of legislation adopted earlier as evidenced by the fact that the number of new laws proposed in this sector fell to 48, just over half as many as had been pushed through a year earlier. But as in earlier years, judges rubber stamped almost all executive branch calls for censorship.
At the same time, Agora reports, officials increasingly recognized that they were not gaining ground by their actions given that Russian Internet users were increasingly using workarounds – earlier this month, a group of Duma deputies proposed criminalizing that – or turning to foreign sites which Moscow has not yet decided to block.
As before, the organization continues, Moscow, St. Petersburg and Tatarstan were the leaders in suppressing Internet freedom. But this year, they were joined by Mordvinia, Ulyanovsk oblast, and Chechnya. It appears, Agora says, that some of the increase is the result of bureaucratic competition for recognition rather than direct demands from the center.
Like Human Rights Watch and other groups, Agora says that the situation regarding Internet freedom in Russia is only going to get worse at least in the near term. And officials are going to make more mistakes in this area because their numbers have been cut back because of budget shortages but demands from above for action show no sign of cutting back.
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Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news.
IRAQ and SYRIA
Two schools and five hospitals were hit by airstrikes in Aleppo and Idlib provinces yesterday. Up to 50 civilians were killed, including children. France and Russia have called the strikes “war crimes.” [Al Jazeera] Blaming the Assad regime and its allies, State Department spokesperson John Kirby said that the airstrikes, which targeted an MSF hospital in Azaz city among others, “fly in the face of the unanimous calls” for a ceasefire.
The airstrikes mark an intensification in fighting, which is “complicating the challenge of getting humanitarian aid” to civilians trapped in besieged areas. [Wall Street Journal’s Sam Dagher et al]
Kurdish fighters and Arab allies continued to push forward approaching Azaz, an important border town. Turkey continued to shell the Kurdish advancing forces, trying to avoid more Kurdish-controlled territory emerging along the border. [New York Times’ Anne Bernard] Martin Chulov comments that the Kurds have succeeded in carving “out a new reality in northern Syria,” at the Guardian.
UN special envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura is in Damascus to discuss the implementation of a cessation in hostilities. [BBC]
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad made a statement yesterday saying that any ceasefire agreement “doesn’t mean that each party will stop using weapons,” but rather the purpose of a truce was to stop “terrorists from strengthening their positions” by gaining territory. [The Guardian’s Kareem Shaheen]
Iran won’t let a cessation of hostilities in Syria enable opposition to the Assad regime to “regroup,” Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in Brussels yesterday. [Wall Street Journal’s Laurence Norman]
Presidents Obama and Putin agreed to intensify diplomatic efforts to bring about a ceasefire agreement and the delivery of humanitarian aid to Syria, the Kremlin announced on Sunday. [Washington Post’s Karen DeYoung] During the phone call between the leaders, President Obama urged Putin to end Moscow’s air campaign against Syrian rebels, the White House said. [The Hill’s Bradford Richardson]
“If the Syria ceasefire fails, ISIS will be the least of the west’s problems,” cautions Michael Clarke, director of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies. [The Guardian]
Turkey has committed ground troops to the anti-Islamic State coalition in Syria, and will permit Saudi airstrike missions from its air bases, the country’s foreign minister said Sunday. [Washington Post’s Karen DeYoung] “Saudi troops to Syria? Whoa. Bad idea!” warns Alexander Decina at The Daily Beast.
US-led airstrikes continue. US and coalition military forces carried out four strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria on Feb. 14. Separately, partner forces conducted a further 14 airstrikes against targets in Iraq. [Central Command]
The Islamic State used mustard gas against Kurdish opponents in Iraq last year, a diplomat has said, in light of tests conducted by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. [Reuters]
SURVEILLANCE, PRIVACY and TECHNOLOGY
An Islamic State attack on US soil is “inevitable,” CIA Director John Brennan said on Sunday. He claimed that US intelligence has already prevented “numerous” attacks, but warned that those involved in potential attacks are able to “take advantage of the newly available means of communication that are – that are walled off from law enforcement officials,” in a reference to encryption technology. [The Hill’s Bradford Richardson]
The White House tried to dismiss suggestions that it is playing a “shell game” with a number of intelligence powers, Julian Hattem reports. [The Hill]
A British national has been arrested on suspicion of involvement with a hacking group responsible for breaking into the private email accounts of senior US intelligence officials; the 16 year old was arrested by UK authorities last week. [Washington Post’s Matt Zapotosky and Ellen Nakashima]
The Federal Communications Commission is expected to put together regulations over the coming months on how broadband providers handle sensitive customer data. David McCabe provides the details. [The Hill]
GUANTÁNAMO BAY
Pre-trial hearings for those allegedly involved in the 9/11 attacks are due to resume today at Guantánamo Bay’s war court, Camp Justice. Items on the agenda include arguments over how prosecutors will provide pre-trial evidence in relation to the time the accused spent in CIA custody. [Miami Herald’s Carol Rosenberg]
After 15 years and repeated calls to close it, Guantánamo Bay is still open and still holds dozens of prisoners without charge. David Smith provides a summary of its history. [The Guardian]
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Libya’s Presidential Council has announced the formation of a revised national unity government.The list of 13 ministers and 5 ministers of state was sent to Libya’s eastern parliament for approval on Sunday. [Al Jazeera] The UN envoy overseeing the process has welcomed the announcement. [UN News Centre]
Defense Secretary Ash Carter has encouraged Britain to renew its Trident nuclear weapons program. In comments published on Saturday, Carter said that replacing the fleet of submarines which carry nuclear warheads must be done so that Britain can sustain its “outsized” role in world affairs. [Reuters]
A US journalist and three members of her crew have been arrested in Bahrain accused of failing to register properly with authorities on entering the country and participating in “an unlawful gathering.” Freelance journalist, Anna Day, and her colleagues were covering a demonstration marking the fifth anniversary of the political opposition uprising in the Gulf monarchy. Reporters Without Borders, a journalists’ rights group, has called for their release. [Wall Street Journal’s Asa Fitch; The Guardian’s Roy Greenslade]
US Green Berets and Dutch Marines have been training a handpicked Senegalese commando squad created in an effort to combat terrorist smuggling networks along the Senegal River. [New York Times’ Eric Schmitt]
Al-Shabaab claim to have seized an armed, unmarked drone which crashed in the Buuraaha Sanda’ar region of southern Somalia. No country has claimed the drone. [Al Jazeera’s Hamza Mohamed]
The investigation into the torture and death of Italian student, Guilio Regeni, in Cairo almost two weeks ago has failed to produce any leads, so far. Italy has pressed Egyptian authorities to expedite their investigation into the death which has “chilled Italian-Egyptian relations.” [Wall Street Journal’s Dahlia Kholaif and Giada Zampano]
Antonin Scalia, Justice on the Supreme Court, died on Saturday. He was 79. Adam Liptak describes the life and times of “the most influential justice of the last quarter-century.” [New York Times]
The UN has encouraged Nigeria to ensure that areas liberated from the control of Boko Haramforces are restored to true safety before it allows displaced persons to return to their homes. [UN News Centre]
A man in Florida has pleaded guilty to a hate crime for threatening to firebomb two mosques in the Middle District of Florida, and to shoot their congregants. [DoJ News]
“What happens when these folks start getting out?” The prospect of some of those convicted of terrorism offences in the US being released as soon as 2017 raises questions about how to reintegrate them back into their communities. [Wall Street Journal’s Nicole Hong]
“Depleting our Treasury and wasting valuable lives.” Joseph Blady discusses the situation in Afghanistan and the Senate Armed Services Committee’s “stunning” decision to continue to keep US troops in Afghanistan and to funnel billions more US dollars into the country’s recovery. [The Hill]
Russian NATO ambassador, Alexander Grushko answers Julian E Barnes’ questions on Russia’s views on the presence of Western troops in Poland and the Baltic, Russian violence in Ukraine, and other matters. [Wall Street Journal]
The US Navy has been testing an electromagnetic railgun and is considering installing it on future USS Lyndon B Johnson. A final decision has yet to be made. [AP]
South Korea will take “stronger and more effective” measures against North Korea from now on, South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye said in “uncharacteristically blunt terms” in a televised parliamentary address yesterday. [AP; Washington Post’s Anna Fifield] A UN human rights investigator has produced a report recommending that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, should face trial for crimes such as murder, torture, enslavement and persecution, and that an expert panel should be created, tasked with identifying how to prosecute him. [New York Times’ Nick Cumming-Bruce] Meanwhile, new sanctions against North Korea were cleared by the House on Friday and are waiting President Obama’s signature. The White House has indicated that he will sign the legislation. [The Hill’s Christina Marcos]
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Prosecutors say they believe the head-on train crash in southern Germany last week was caused by "human error" by the train dispatcher.
Title: Counterterrorism And Open Source Intelligence
Author: Uffe Kock Wiil
Will, Uffe Kock (2011), ed. Counterterrorism And Open Source Intelligence New York: Springer
LCCN: 2011931775
Summary
- “Presents state-of-the-art research and practice in intelligence work. Describes novel tools and techniques for counterterrorism and open source intelligence. Provides perspectives on the future uses of open source intelligence. Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, serious concerns were raised on domestic and international security issues. Consequently, there has been considerable interest recently in technological strategies and resources to counter acts of terrorism. In this context, this book provides a state-of-the-art survey of the most recent advances in the field of counterterrorism and open source intelligence, demonstrating how various existing as well as novel tools and techniques can be applied in combating covert terrorist networks. A particular focus will be on future challenges of open source intelligence and perspectives on how to effectively operate in order to prevent terrorist activities.” –Publisher’s website.
Contents
- Counterterrorism and open source intelligence models, tools, techniques, and case studies / Uffe Kock Wiil — Targeting by transnational terrorist groups / Alexander Gutfraind — A framework for analyst focus from computed significance / David Skillicorn and M.A.J. Bourassa — Interdiction of plots with multiple operatives / Gordon Woo — Understanding terrorists network topologies and their resilience against disruption / Roy Lindelauf, Peter Borm, and Herbert Hamers — Co-offending network mining / Patricia L. Brantingham, Martin Ester, Richard Frank, Uwe Glässer, and Mohammad A. Tayebi — Religion-based geospatial abduction with counter-IED applications / Paulo Shakarian and V.S. Subrahmanian — Finding hidden links in terrorist networks by checking indirect links of different sub-networks / Alan Chen, Shag Gao, Panagiotis Karampelas, Reda Alhajj, and Jon Rokne — The use of open source intelligence in the construction of covert social networks / Christopher J. Rhodes — A novel method to analyze the importance of links in terrorist networks / Uffe Kock Wiil, Jolanta Gniadek, and Nasrullah Memon — A global measure for estimating the degree of organization and effectiveness if individual actors with application to terrorist networks / Sara Aghakhani, Khaled Dawoud, Reda Alhajj, and Jon Rokne — Counterterrorism mining for individuals semantically-similar to watchlist members / James A. Danowski — Detection of illegitimate emails using boosting algorithm / Sarwat Nizamani, Nasrullah Memon, and Uffe Kock Wiil — Cluster based text classification model / Sarwat Nizamani, Nasrullah Memon, and Uffe Kock Wiil — Effectiveness of social networks for studying biological agents and identifying cancer biomarkers / Ghada Naji, Mohamad Nagi, Abdallah M. ElSheikh, Shang Gao, Keivan Kianmehr, Tansel Özyer, Jon Rokne, douglas Demetrick, Mick Ridley, and Reda alhajj — From terrorism informatics to dark web research / Hsinchun Chen — Investigating terrorist attacks using CDR data : a case study / Faith Ozgul, Ahmet Celik, Claus Atzenbeck, and Nadir Gergin — Multilingual real-time event extraction for border security intelligence gathering / Martin Atkinson, Jakub Piskorski, Erik van der Goot, and Roman Yangarber — Mining the web to monitor the political consensus / Federico Neri, Carlo Aliprandi, and Furio Camillo — Exploring the evolution of terrorist networks / Nasrullah Memon, Uffe Kock Wiil, Pir Abdul Rasool Qureshi, and Panagiotis Karampelas — The ultimate hack : re-inventing intelligence to re-engineer earth / Robert David Steele.
Subjects
- Terrorism–Prevention.
- Open source intelligence.
- Data mining in law enforcement.
- Terrorism–Prevention–Data processing.
- Terrorism–Prevention–Simulation methods.
Additional formats
- Also available in electronic format via the World Wide Web.
Series
- Lecture notes in social networks ; v. 2
- Lecture notes in social networks ; v. 2.
Date Posted: February 16, 2016
Reviewed by Joshua Sinai[1]
A collection of papers by leading academic experts who present their research on the application of computational social science to the field of counterterrorism and open source intelligence. Their models, tools, and technologies are applied to subjects such as uncovering targeting by terrorist groups, interdiction of plots with multiple operatives, examining terrorist network topologies, using social network analysis and data mining technologies to uncover hidden links in terrorist networks and sub-networks, and uncovering terrorist activities on the Internet.
[1] Sinai, Joshua, PhD. in The Intelligencer: Journal of U. S. Intelligence Studies (19, 1, Winter/Spring, 2013, pp. ). Dr. Joshua Sinai is a Washington-based educator and consultant on terrorism and counterterrorism studies. He has provided capsule reviews of important books recently published on terrorism and counter-terrorism-related topics. He can be reached at: Joshua.sinai@comcast.net.
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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah assured supporters Tuesday that it is deterring a third war in Lebanon with its enhanced capabilities, including the ability to extract damage akin to a “nuclear bomb” with one successful salvo strike on an ammonia s
Nasrallah threatens missile strike on Haifa ammonia plant
DEBKAfile February 16, 2016, 10:38 PM (IDT)
Shiite leader Hassan Nasrallah Tuesday threatened to shot missile at the ammonia plan in Haifa Bay. In a broadcast speech, he quoted Israeli experts as comparing the effect of a direct hit to an ammonia storage depot to that of a nuclear bomb. The death toll could rise to 800,000, he said.
The head of the United Nations mission in Mali says jihadis used armored vehicles in the attack on the mission’s base in Kidal that killed at least seven peacekeepers last week.
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Rumors have replicated through social media and word of mouth, frustrating Brazilian officials as they grapple with a mysterious pathogen.
Iran's defense minister is visiting Moscow for talks about closer military cooperation with Russia.
Questions are raised over the handling of US Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia's death, as Republicans and Democrats battle over his successor.
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