Beware Putin’s Special War in 2015
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Beware Putin’s Special War in 2015 by John R. Schindler
December 2014 is the month Putin’s Russia was plunged into undeniable crisis. Between the dramatic drop in oil prices and the collapse of the ruble, under Western sanctions pressure, Russians are going into the new year in a dramatically different, and lessened, economic situation than the one they enjoyed at the beginning of the year now ending.
This will bring myriad hardships to Russians, particularly because even Moscow is admitting that low oil prices may be the “new normal” until the 2030’s. Caveats abound here. The vast majority of Russians don’t travel abroad, much less have vacation properties in Europe, nor do they have hard-currency mortgages (the ruble now having returned to its Soviet-era pariah status). Moreover, the average Russian has a physical and mental toughness about getting by in tough times — it is an unmistakable point of national pride — that Westerners cannot really fathom. In no case now does Russia face the sort of complete economic collapse that it endured in the 1990’s, when the Soviet implosion pushed poor Russians to the edge of survival (were not so many Russians but one generation removed from the farm, and therefore had access to their own food supply, famine might well have happened under Yeltsin). Life in Yeltsin’s Russia, particularly beyond the bright lights of Moscow and St. Petersburg, where few Westerners visit, was harsh and frankly dismal.
Nevertheless, the economic undoing of Putinism over the last weeks, brought about by Western sanctions in response to Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine which began in early 2014, heralds major changes for the Kremlin, and not just in its domestic affairs. While Russia has far deeper hard currency reserves than it possessed in 1998, the last time the ruble’s bottom fell out, and it’s clear that Moscow will try to prevent banks from failing, there should be little optimism among Putin’s inner circle. Russia now faces a protracted and serious financial-cum-economic crisis that will get much worse before it gets better. Since much of Putin’s popularity has derived from the impressive economic growth his fifteen years in the Kremlin have brought, a rise in living standards that has benefited average Russians as well as oligarchs, the political implications of this collapse for Russia’s president are grave.
But are they enough to get Putin to cease his aggression and, in the long run, perhaps even leave office? Western politicians, eager to avoid armed confrontation with Russia, have assumed that enough sanctions-related pain will force Putin’s hand and get him to back off in Ukraine and elsewhere. This was always a questionable assumption. In the first place, sanctions tend to work as intended mostly against countries that strongly dislike being a global pariah, like apartheid-era South Africa, whose English-speaking white elites hated how they suddenly were no longer welcome in the posh parts of London. There is no evidence that Putin and most average Russians find being despised by the West particularly objectionable; on the contrary, many seem to revel in it.
Then there is the touchy fact that sanctions sometimes work not at all as intended. Using economic warfare to break a country’s will, which entails real hardship for average citizens, can cause more aggression rather than cease it. The classic example is Imperial Japan, which faced grim economic realities once U.S.-led oil sanctions took effect in retaliation for Tokyo’s aggressive and nasty war in China. Lacking indigenous petroleum, Japan was wholly dependent on imports that Washington, DC, blocked with sanctions. These placed Japan on what strategists would term “death ground,” since without imported oil its economy and its military could not function. Moreover, the sanctions were seen — correctly — by Tokyo as a sign that the United States and its allies did not want Japan to dominate the Western Pacific region, which constituted an intolerable affront to Japanese pride. The closest place to get the oil Japan needed was the Dutch East Indies, today’s Indonesia, and Tokyo resolved to seize the oil there by force. To do that, Japan first had to drive the Royal Navy out of Singapore and the U.S. Navy out of the Philippines, and to enable that they had to disable America’s Pacific Fleet, which was ported in Pearl Harbor…and the rest of the story you know.
Japan in 1941 believed it was already facing defeat through oppressive sanctions, so engaging in actual war seemed like a logical choice. The total defeat of the Japanese Empire in 1945 indicates that Tokyo’s decision to bomb Pearl Harbor was madcap, but had things worked out differently at, say, Midway in June 1942, such choices might look very different to historians today. When sitting on promotion boards for battle-tried colonels hoping for selection to general in his army, something he enjoyed, Napoleon liked to ask of a candidate, pointedly: “Yes, but is he lucky?” Japan was not at all lucky in the war it started in December 1941, but its defeat was hardly preordained, and the salient point is that Tokyo felt that the Americans really started that war with their harsh sanctions.
Might Putin do the same and decide that since Russia is facing defeat at the hands of Western sanctions, which represent a kind of war, why not opt for actual war, in which Moscow at least has a chance of victory? It’s too early to determine that, but 2015 will be the year such grave decisions are made. To date, there are no indications that Putin intends to back down in Ukraine, or anywhere, thanks to Western sanctions. It’s important to note that Putin’s narrative, which he has elaborated on several occasions and is accepted by most Russians, is straightforward: He has done nothing illegal in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, he is only protecting Russia and ethnic Russians, which is a legitimate national interest. Moreover, it is the height of cheek for the Americans, who after all invade countries all over the world in the name of “freedom,” to call Moscow’s legitimate actions on Russia’s borders “aggression.” Russia will defend itself against this rancid hypocrisy and will resist the West’s warlike sanctions, which are intended to punish Russia for defending itself and its rightful interests.
Putin’s public statements this month make clear that backing down now is not in the cards. At a press conference December 18, he pointedly blamed the financial crisis on the West (“The current situation was obviously provoked primarily by external factors.”) while promising the economy will eventually improve. (Close observers will note that Putin cited “The main achievement of the year in the social sphere is of course positive demographics.”) The usual KGB-style tough talk, however, was on display, as a British journalist explained:
He brooked no compromise on the annexation of Crimea, and renewed his lambasting of the West’s policies since the fall of the Berlin Wall, accusing it of putting up new “virtual walls” and wanting to “chain” the Russian bear. He said that even if the bear were to “sit tight… supping berries and honey” and “abandon its hunting instincts”, the West would still “seek to chain us… then rip out our teeth and claws”. The bear, he said, had no intention of being turned into a “soft toy”. It would defend its sovereignty.
On 20 December, a holiday that honors Russia’s “special services” — this was the day in 1917 that the Cheka, the Bolshevik secret police, was founded by “Iron Feliks” Dzierżyński; in a normal country this would be a day of national mourning not celebration — Putin addressed Russia’s security posture, noting this year’s spike in espionage against the country. He proudly asserted that Russian counterintelligence, Putin’s former employers, had uncovered 230 foreign spies operating in the country during 2014. He minced no words about this threat:
Frank statements are being made to the effect that Russia should pay dearly for its independent stance, for its support for its compatriots, for Crimea and Sevastopol – for merely existing, it sometimes seems. Clearly, no one has ever succeeded in scaring, suppressing or isolating Russia and never will. Such attempts have been made regularly, over the centuries, as I have said publicly on numerous occasions, and in the 20th century it happened several times: in the 1920s, the 1940s and later. It did not work then and it will not work now. Meanwhile, we have to be prepared to experience certain difficulties and always rebuff any threats to our sovereignty, stability and the unity of our society.
This is not a man who is about to back down; doubling-down seems decidedly more likely. To be fair to Putin, Russia is a democracy of sorts, and popular opinion matters. He has dangerously stoked nationalist fires throughout the year now ending, regularly citing alleged Ukrainian Nazis eager to commit genocide against innocent Russians, so it’s difficult to see how he can turn those passions off with a switch, not least because beating the nationalist drum, while making the diplomatic equivalent of obscene gestures at the West, is popular with the Russian masses.
Neither does Western behavior always help matters. It seems not to have occurred to many Western politicians that gleeful public statements about how sanctions will cripple Russia might make Russians view these devastating acts as tantamount to war waged against them. President Obama, too, has not always been wise in his comments. In the first place he has not explained why a half-century of sanctions on tiny and impoverished Cuba failed to work — hence his opening to Havana last week — but sanctions on vast and largely self-sufficient Russia should be expected to deliver as advertised. On December 21, Obama’s comments on his adversary in the Kremlin took a strange turn:
There was a spate of stories about how he is the chess master and outmaneuvering the West and outmaneuvering Mr. Obama and this and that and the other. And right now, he’s presiding over the collapse of his currency, a major financial crisis and a huge economic contraction. That doesn’t sound like somebody who has rolled me or the United States of America.
Obama’s offensive defensiveness here speaks volumes — the self-reference in the third person is revealing — and will be read in Moscow as weakness mingled with taunting. If this is what prep school Ivy League lawyers think passes for tough talk in Chicago, the Chekists in the Kremlin, who are actual hard men with much blood on their hands, will be happy to give lessons to faux-macho poseurs in the West Wing, and in 2015 they will.
I don’t know if there will be war — real war — between Russia and the West in the new year. Surely such a possibility cannot be ruled out, not least because NATO has signally failed to implement the modest deterrence posture in Eastern Europe that I recommended six months ago, eschewing actual defense in favor of some showy yet small-scale exercises without strategic impact. It’s not surprising that some NATO frontline states are planning for possible invasion and occupation by Russia, since their faith in the staying power of the Atlantic Alliance, particularly in Obama’s resolve, is increasingly in doubt.
It is unlikely that Putin will soon choose overt aggression against a NATO country with the intent of causing major war, but such a conflict may result anyway in 2015. Rising Kremlin military and espionage operations in Northern Europe are a cause for concern, while Kremlin provocations against Estonia, that tiny country being a particular bugbear for Putin, indicate where the next Russian “microaggression” — here meaning an engineered “misunderstanding” at a border town to test Alliance resolve — may perhaps fall. It’s a tricky game deciding where Obama’s “redlines” are, particularly because the president himself seems not to know in Syria, Ukraine, or anywhere, so it’s dangerously easy to envision a scenario where the angry gamblers in Moscow roll the dice one time too many, forcing NATO’s hand, without realizing it until it’s too late. War can happen by a kind of accident, with a risky Kremlin operational game gone wrong, and since NATO is not seriously prepared to resist Russian aggression on its eastern frontier, in 2015 it just might.
What I am absolutely certain of, however, is that the new year will bring the West more of what I’ve termed Special War emanating from the East. Moscow is far from ready to wage sustained conventional war against NATO, not least because the oil-plus-ruble collapse will delay its long-overdue military modernization program, but it is eminently prepared to engage in the witches’ brew of espionage, subversion, and terrorism that makes up Special War. Here the West must be vigilant, since Kremlin Special War can do real damage, and represents something that NATO is poorly conditioned to recognize, much less defeat and deter.
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Some US Theaters to Show 'The Interview,' Despite Hacker Threats by webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
U.S.-based Sony Pictures has reversed its position on a controversial movie that inspired a cyberattack the United States said was carried out by North Korea. Sony said "The Interview," a movie parody about the assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, will open in a few theaters starting on December 25. Sony announced last week it would not screen the comedy movie in theaters, after its computers were hacked by unknown attackers who threatened more damage if the movie were released as scheduled. Two theaters, The Alamo Drafthouse in Austin, Texas, and the Plaza in Atlanta, Georgia, have said they plan to show the film. Sony chairman and CEO Michael Lynton said Tuesday the company is proud "to have stood up to those who attempted to suppress free speech" and hopes "this is only the first step of the film's release."
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The presidents of Ukraine and Kazakhstan have discussed military cooperation and the situation in eastern Ukraine during a meeting in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said the countries renewed their military and technical cooperation. He also said Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev agreed the principals outlined in the Minsk agreement should be the basis for settling the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Nazarbayev said there is an opportunity to resolve the situation and restore relations in the region. On Sunday, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko met in Kyiv with Poroshenko to offer his support. Poroshenko thanked the Belarus leader for taking a clear position on the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine. Belarus, a close ally of Russia, also maintains a solid relationship with Ukraine. Belarus hosted major negotiations between an international contact group in its capital, Minsk, in September that produced deals on a cease-fire and partial self-rule for the two mostly Russian-speaking regions of eastern Ukraine that rebelled against Kyiv in April. The cease-fire agreed to September 5 succeeded in stemming the worst fighting, but it has been repeatedly broken by both sides, resulting in at least 1,300 more deaths. Also Sunday, in an interview broadcast by CNN, U.S. President Barack Obama rejected the notion that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a "chess master" who has outmaneuvered the United States and the West in their stand-off over Ukraine. Obama said Putin is facing "the collapse of his currency, a major financial crisis, and a huge economic contraction." Russia's money woes follow U.S. and EU sanctions imposed after Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimean peninsula earlier this year. The Kyiv government, the European Union and the United States accuse Moscow of stoking the violence in Ukraine and arming pro-Russian separatists after Ukrainians ousted their Moscow-backed president in February and embarked on a pro-Western course. Moscow denies involvement.
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The investigation of Jozef Wesolowski, accused of abusing boys in the Dominican Republic, was halted because Dominican investigators had not responded to requests for evidence.
President Barack Obama's decision to do all he can to ease restrictions on U.S. trade, travel and financial activities with Cuba has drawn criticism from some conservatives and Republicans. People who bring tourists to the island and farmers who want to sell more food to Cuba, however, think they can do a lot more business with Cuba. VOA's Jim Randle reports.
NY Cop Gunman Had History of Violence, Mental Illnessby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
The gunman who shot dead two New York City police officers had a history of violence and mental illness, according to a top police official. Ismayyil Brinsley, 28, shot and killed officers Wenjian Liu and Rafael Ramos as they sat in their patrol car Saturday in Brooklyn. Brinsley then fled into a nearby subway station where he shot and killed himself. Prior to the shooting, Brinsley posted anti-police and anti-government messages on Instagram and alluded to taking revenge for the deaths of Michael Brown and Eric Garner, both unarmed black men who died at the hands of white police officers. Brinsley was black. The officers he killed were Asian and Hispanic. Police said Brinsley had a history of mental illness and had attempted to commit suicide several times, including last year when he tried to hang himself. According to his family, Brinsley had a troubled childhood and was often violent, New York City Chief of Detectives Robert Boyce said Monday. Brinsley's mother said though he was from a Muslim family, he was not radicalized in any way. Long rap sheet Boyce said Brinsley had been arrested nearly 20 times for crimes ranging from petty theft to making threats. He said Brinsley was estranged from much of his family and that his mother expressed fear of him and said she had not seen him in a month. Hours before the shootings in New York, Brinsley shot and wounded a former girlfriend in Baltimore in the eastern state of Maryland. Baltimore police warned that Brinsley had threatened New York police on the woman's Instagram account. But Commissioner William Bratton said his officers received the alert too late to prevent the attack. The shooting comes at a time of increased tension in New York and around the United States, following the decisions by grand juries not to indict white police officers in several confrontations that resulted in the deaths of unarmed black men. Police departments in cities around the country have been put on high alert out of fear of copycat killings. In an interview with NBC's Today Show, Bratton confirmed that tensions between the police force and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio remain high, adding that the mayor has lost the trust of some officers. Extra $400 million But Bratton said he does not blame the mayor, adding that the police department has received from the city an extra $400 million to improve police training, improve facilities and acquire new technology. De Blasio has been criticized by officers over his campaign against the departments stop-and-frisk tactics, a practice in which people, mainly those from poor and minority neighborhoods, were stopped for exhibiting what officers deemed "suspicious behavior." De Blasio and the president of the Patrolmen's Benevolent Associate, Patrick Lynch, have been locked in a public battle over treatment of officers following the grand jury's decision there not to indict the officer in the Garner case. Just days ago, Lynch suggested police officers sign a petition that demanded the mayor not attend their funerals should they die on the job. On Saturday, some officers turned their backs on de Blasio when he walked into the hospital where the two slain officers were taken.
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2015 Could Be Watershed for Syria Conflictby webdesk@voanews.com (Cecily Hilleary)
Another year has passed in Syria, with no end in sight for a conflict that has claimed 200,000 lives, injured a million and displaced nearly half the population. In four years, the Obama administration has sought an effective strategy on Syria, to no avail. But in November elections, Republicans gained control of the Senate, and some analysts suggest that in next year’s session, Congress could push for the U.S. to take a more aggressive stance against Islamist militants and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. 2014: A turning point Two rounds of peace talks at the start of 2014 ended without agreement, and the spring saw the Syrian regime regain two key rebel strongholds, Yabroud and Homs. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad announced elections June 3, which he won - predictably - by a landslide. That same month, the United Nations announced that it had completed the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons—and the extremist Islamic State group (IS) in Iraq and Syria announced it had established a caliphate. From this point on, the rebels have been fighting a war on two fronts. On the one front, Assad’s military carried out 2,000 airstrikes between October 20 and November 29 alone, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, killing more than 500 Syrians, even as U.S. planes were in Syrian skies. The regime looks poised, analysts say, to take Syria’s second city, Aleppo, unless the United Nations can achieve a proposed freeze in fighting, which would allow much-needed aid to reach the embattled population and give parties a brief opening for diplomacy. On the second front, as Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida recently cautioned in the Washington Post, is that the Islamic State group now reaches from North Africa through the Middle East, Pakistan and South Asia and into Southeast Asia. “Mainstream rebel forces are losing battle after battle to ISIS, as well as to the al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat Al Nusra,” said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution's Center for Middle East Policy. ISIS is another name for the Islamist group. Valerie Amos, the U.N.’s top relief official, recently told the Security Council that she had “run out of words” to fully explain the “brutality, violence and callous disregard for human life” witnessed in Syria today. “The parties to the conflict continue to ignore the most basic principles of humanity,” Amos said. “In many parts of Syria the level of violence has worsened, with civilians continuing to pay heavily with loss of life, serious injuries, psychological trauma, ongoing and recurring displacement and massive damage to property and infrastructure.” Missing the mark? In September, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a two-fold strategy for degrading and destroying IS in Syria and Iraq. In Syria, the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, five Arab allies have conducted targeted airstrikes against IS, mostly at Kobani, near the Turkish border. But the impact of these strikes may be more psychological than anything else, said Northeastern University’s terrorism expert Max Abrams. “I think our airpower was effective, maybe not in qualitatively degrading the IS, but more importantly in terms of puncturing their aura of invincibility,” he said. The second component of the strategy - training and arming “moderate” rebels - won’t begin until March 2015. But analysts said it may be difficult to find willing partners to work with the U.S. and to properly vet fighters. “We’re talking here about $500 million to train about 5,000 fighters,” Hamid said. “When we are talking about a military theater in which there are more than 100,000 fighters from a whole variety of rebel grounds, 5,000 fighters are just a drop in the bucket.” And what, Hamid asks, will those fighters be doing? “Based on [Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman] General Martin Dempsey’s comments and the comments of other officials, this seems to be a primarily anti-ISIS fighting force,” he said. “But how do you convince 5,000 fighters to hold their fire against their primary enemy, the Assad regime, and focus just on ISIS?” If the U.S. wants to gain the trust of the Syrian opposition, Hamid said, it would have to admit it got things wrong and address the issue of the Assad regime itself. “The longer that Assad is in power, the longer Syria is divided,” said Andrew J. Tabler, senior fellow in the Washington Institute’s Program on Arab Politics. “And the longer Syria is divided, the longer ISIS has free rein over the country.” New Congress, new policy? Mid-term elections held in November saw Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate and that could change the equation, Abrams said. “There are some real differences between Congressional Democrats and Republicans with respect to how to prosecute the war against the Islamic State,” Abrams said. “And there are a lot of inconsistencies within the parties, particularly in the Republican party.” Republican Senator John McCain, a vocal critic of Obama’s Syria policy, will assume the chair of the powerful Armed Services Committee in January. He and fellow Republican Senator Lindsey Graham have also called on the administration to more aggressively “support and empower the Free Syrian Army” by setting up safe zones protected by no-fly zones in Syria. In addition, they have called for “more boots on the ground, more vigorous strikes, more special forces, further arming the Kurdish peshmerga forces.” And they also share Turkey’s assertion that IS militants cannot be defeated so long as Assad remains in power. “The wild card is how the Democrats will react,” Tabler said. “And it’s there we see Hillary Clinton, thus far one of the party’s potential candidates in the coming election. She has been saying that she advocated for doing more earlier, that there should have been a more robust program and that Obama missed that window.” “In general,” said Abrams, “Republicans will be more hawkish. The Democrats want to limit Obama in terms of his ability to use ground forces.” First things first But before a new Congress decides what action is taken, it will debate who is entitled to authorize it in the first place. Obama has said repeatedly that he was justified in ordering airstrikes, invoking the 2001 and 2002 authorizations for the use of military force in Afghanistan and Iraq. But many Republicans say otherwise, arguing that the constitution stipulates it’s up to lawmakers to decide if the country will go to war, where and for how long. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week approved a measure that would give the president the authority to use military force against IS for up to three years, but would ban ground troops, except in certain prescribed circumstances. Meanwhile, Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the senior Republican on the Armed Services Committee, has introduced a resolution that would authorize the president to use “all necessary and appropriate force in order to defend the national security of the United States” against IS, come up with a strategy within 15 days, and update Congress every 90 days. A third resolution under consideration, introduced by Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, acknowledges the U.S. needs to go after IS in both Iraq and Syria. His bill would allow the president to use “appropriate force” against the Islamists, but would not allow him to deploy ground troops. Republican U.S. Senator Rand Paul wants more than just an authorization. He wants the U.S. to declare a formal war against IS, sending in ground troops only “as necessary for the protection or rescue of members of the United States Armed Forces or United States citizens from imminent danger” or for limited operations and intelligence gathering. Tabler, with the Program on Arab Politics, believes Republicans will ultimately pressure Obama into doing more in Syria. “The problem is that the longer this goes on, and the more that the jihadists take over these swaths of Syria and Iraq where you have tribal and other more moderate forces who feel abandoned by the U.S., the less we have to work with on the ground,” he said. “I think this war is no longer just about Syria or Iraq or even ISIS. It’s something bigger and much more dangerous.”
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Originally published at - http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/media/video/ye-nato-russia/2569126.html.
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US Coalition Destroys IS Targets Near Sinjarby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
The U.S.-led coalition continued its air assault Monday near Iraq's Mount Sinjar, a day after Kurdish peshmerga fighters broke an Islamic State siege of the area. The Combined Joint Task Force said the U.S.-led coalition conducted 12 airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria on Monday and 10 strikes in Iraq. Three of the airstrikes hit several units of IS fighters and destroyed militant vehicles and buildings. In Iraq, the strikes hit near the strategic northern Iraqi town of Sinjar, as well as near Asad, Tal Afar, Ramdi, Mosul and Falluja, the Combined Joint Task Force said. They destroyed six units of Islamic State fighters as well as a weapons factory, numerous buildings and several vehicles, it said. In Syria, the dozen strikes centered around the border town of Kobani as well as Aleppo, Hasaka and Raqqa, destroying various fighting positions, vehicles and a group of fighters, the statement said. "These engagements were in support of the 7th Iraqi Army, local police and tribal fighters engaged in fighting with ISIL forces in the vicinity of Dulab," the statement said. On Sunday, Kurdish and Yazidi fighters battled to take the Sinjar back from Islamic State after breaking a months-long siege of the mountain above it. Seizing the town would restore the majority of territory Iraq's Kurds lost in Islamic State's surprise offensive in August. Kurdish officials said Sunday peshmerga fighters took control of all roads leading to the mountain, but still face pockets of resistance in the town of Sinjar. Some material for this report came from Reuters.
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 Комсомольская правда |
Китай готов при необходимости помочь России
BBC Russian Китай готов при необходимости помочь России, но уверен, что у нее достаточно собственных возможностей для решения нынешних экономических проблем, приводит мнение министра иностранных дел КНР Ван И англоязычная китайская газета China Daily в понедельник. Китай готов помочь России "в пределах возможностей"NEWSru.com Министр иностранных дел КНР: Если потребуется, Китай готов оказать помощь РФМосковский комсомолец Китай готов оказать России помощь в решении экономических трудностейИА REGNUM Комсомольская Правда в Украине -Утро.Ru -РБК Украина Все похожие статьи: 72 » |
 The Guardian |
Angela Merkel has faced down the Russian bear in the battle for Europe
The Guardian In 2014, the battle for Europe's future has been fought between two leaders: Russian president Vladimir Putin and German chancellor Angela Merkel. The contrast between them could not be sharper. There the Russian man: macho, militarist, practitioner of ... Germany sees no need to ease Russia sanctions despite minister's concernsReuters Sanctions against Russia should be canceled if Minsk agreements observed ...ITAR-TASS Germany Will Not Ease Sanctions on RussiateleSUR English all 18 news articles » |
Belarus Enjoys Bonanza Amid Russia-West Tensions
New York Times MINSK, Belarus — As relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated, there's one country that's reaping rewards — Belarus, whose authoritarian leader was once dubbed "Europe's last dictator" by the United States and the European Union. and more » |
 Bloomberg |
China Offers Russia Help With Currency Swap Suggestion
Bloomberg Two Chinese ministers offered support for Russia as President Vladimir Putin seeks to shore up the ruble without depleting foreign-exchange reserves. China will provide help if needed and is confident Russia can overcome its economic difficulties ... China foreign minister says willing to help RussiaReuters China pledges to help Russia overcome economic hardshipsRT Obama: Putin hasn't 'rolled me,' economic sanctions on Russia have workedWashington Times USA TODAY-WBUR-Salon all 223 news articles » |
 Дни.Ру |
Лукашенко предостерегли от участи Хусейна
Дни.Ру 10:54 / 22.12.2014 Глава комитета Госдумы по международным делам Алексей Пушков напомнил президенту Белоруссии Александру Лукашенко об опасности попыток дружбы с США. Если Лукашенко не хочет повторить опыт Саддама Хусейна и Муамара Каддафи, то ему необходимо ... Лидеру Белоруссии напомнили, чем оборачивается дружба с СШАПравда.Ру Пушков напомнил Лукашенко об опасной дружбе ряда президентов с СШАКомсомольская правда Пушков предупредил ЛукашенкоУтро.Ru Взгляд -Аргументы и факты -УНИАН Все похожие статьи: 22 » |
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Pakistan To Execute About 500 Terrorism Convictsby noreply@rferl.org (RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal)
Pakistan says it will begin executing nearly 500 prisoners convicted on terrorism-related charges in the coming weeks.
Activists Say Another Home Destroyed In Chechnyaby noreply@rferl.org (RFE/RL)
Rights activists and news reports say at least one home has been destroyed in Russia's Chechnya region despite President Vladimir Putin's warning against extrajudicial reprisals.
 RuNews24.ru - круглосуточная служба новостей |
В Китае за азартные игры и просмотр порно арестованы 30 тысяч человек
RuNews24.ru - круглосуточная служба новостей В рамках рейда по борьбе с порнографией и азартными играми в провинции Гуандун задержаны были свыше 30 тысяч китайцев. С весны текущего года китайское правительство ведет масштабную кампанию по борьбе с порнографией и организацией азартных игр. Были закрыты ... Более 30 тысяч китайцев арестованы за порнографию и азартные игрыРоссийская Газета Китай продолжает масштабную кампанию против порнографии и азартных игрНезависимое интернет-издание "ДНИ" В Китае более 30 тысяч человек задержаны за азартные игры и просмотр порноNEWSru.com ИА Амур.инфо -Круглосуточный Новостной Канал 24KZ Все похожие статьи: 64 » |
Window on Eurasia: Are Russia’s Federal Subject Heads to Become Governors General?by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, December 22 – Vladimir Putin has agreed with proposals by Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu to require the heads of the federal subjects to bear responsibility for mobilization and fighting against diversionary forces, a step that makes them into something like tsarist-era governors general and could presage a new territorial delimitation of the country.
At his meeting with the senior officials of the defense minister on Friday, Putin signaled that he supports Shoigu’s proposals and even mentioned that these should be implemented by “taking into account the experience of the general governorships in Russia” before the revolution (ng.ru/armies/2014-12-22/3_kartblansh.html).
That institution existed in some but not all of the territories of the Russian Empire between 1703 and 1917 and gave those who occupied it a combination of civil and military power, according to “Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s” Vladimir Mukhin, who writes on military affairs for the Moscow paper.
As he points out, there is a post-Soviet precedent for taking this step: at the end of 2011, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka gave the military rank of major general to six oblast governors and the Mensk mayor and has referred to these officials since that time as “governors general.”
“If something similar occurs in Russia,” Mukhin writes, “this will be a relatively new page in the contemporary history of military reform in the country,” even though Shoigu and other defense ministry officials have talked frequently about the need to get regional heads more involved in the draft and in defense preparation.
On Friday, Putin indicated that he agreed, arguing that it is now time to “concentrate administrative resources” on this issue in order to fulfill the tasks of national defense especially since many bureaucratic structures are now involved in defense and the governors must coordinate their work at the regional level.
As Mukhin points out, the details of this new arrangement are still far from clear, and they are likely to become so only as current defense laws are amended. But there are at least three interesting possibilities that this new/old approach raises. First, it could presage a further amalgamation of regions and republics, possibly along the lines of the country’s defense districts rather than simply economic zones.
Second, it could give the governors added weight in political contests with the center because they would have closer ties with the defense establishment – or alternatively it could allow the country’s military to control them and thus run large swatches of the country, thus changing the balance between civil and military power in Moscow itself.
And third, and most speculatively, it could help power nationalist and secessionist moves by giving the heads of federal subjects and their population the sense that they have an institution, in this case, a military one, that they could use on their own, just as some in the union republics at the end of Soviet times emphasized the importance of the republic foreign ministries.
In any case, what may seem just another bureaucratic throwback to the past may turn out to have a far greater impact on the future than even its authors intend.
Read the whole story
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After Pivotal 2014, Afghanistan Faces New Challenges With Less Help by webdesk@voanews.com (Ayaz Gul)
Officials and politicians in Afghanistan believe the country's political and security transitions in 2014 have set the stage for a secure and prosperous future for the war-wounded nation. But critics are skeptical about the optimism and believe a lot will depend on how the new Afghan leaders tackle the challenges in the wake of dwindling foreign financial resources. An intensified Taliban insurgency coupled with daunting economic and political governance challenged Afghanistan in 2014. The conflict-riven country succeeded in holding two rounds of presidential elections amid serious security threats, though the democratic process was marred by allegations of massive vote rigging. Nationwide security responsibilities were also transferred from NATO to a relatively under-trained Afghan national security force. Janan Mosazai, Afghanistan’s ambassador to neighboring Pakistan, told VOA the two transitions have proved critics who made dire predictions wrong. “There was a unanimity of view and assessment that Afghanistan is going to collapse in 2014 when Afghanistan will suffer a security collapse, a political crisis and then also an economic meltdown. Well, thank God, we have successfully implemented two of those transitions,” said Mosazai. The election resulted in a so-called national unity government in Kabul which is headed by President Ashraf Ghani while the runner-up, Abdullah Abdullah, is the chief executive. Mosazai said the two leaders are determined to steer the country through the “decade of transformation” to ensure a successful economic transition. “Looking to 2015, I can say with confidence that Afghanistan will enter the decade of transformation with a renewed determination under the national unity government and based on a strong national consensus for peace, and for security and for economic development. We are hopeful that we will make progress on finding a solution to the unacceptable violence that is still continuing in the country,” said Mosazai. President Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah have repeatedly promised to work together to rid the country of violence, introduce democratic reforms and rid key institutions of deeply-rooted corruption. The new Afghan president reiterated his resolve at recent international conferences and appeared to be more than willing to work with his once bitter election rival. “The government of national unity is committed to fundamental reforms to owning our destiny to ensuring that we are in the lead regarding reforms’ processes,” said Ghani. However, despite public pledges, Ghani and Abdullah have not been able to come up with a consensus cabinet since taking office in late September. Both have dismissed reports of serious differences as misplaced, and maintain they are determined to work together. Kate Clark of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), however, is skeptical about the claims. “We have got the [political] transition, we have got the two men in place. They strive to appear to be cordial in public and that’s all very good, however, we still don’t have a government, we still don’t have a cabinet. They have not managed to conclude the negotiations [on formation of the cabinet] with more than two months on from the establishment of their government. We still don’t know what Dr. Abdullah’s powers and authorities are, and we still don’t know whether this government is going to work or not,” said Clark. Clark said the new Afghan leadership is running out of time in terms of dealing with worsening security in the wake of rising Taliban attacks and mounting economic problems after suffering setbacks due to the prolonged election process. “Afghanistan is facing urgent problems. It’s got still a very violent insurgency. The Taliban showing no signs of wanting to put down their weapons. The economy has lost a lot of income. Yes, the economy has got huge problems. So, Afghanistan is facing, it’s facing very, very severe problems. And I don’t think we yet have any sense of urgency from the elites who would form the government that they need to get on with things they need to start really, really tackling some of those problems,” said Clark. U.S. Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko in recent speeches and reports has also expressed reservations about the sustainability of Afghan institutions. “If the Afghan government were to dedicate all of its domestic revenue toward sustaining their army and police, they still could only pay for one-third of the cost approximately. Moreover, all other costs - from paying civil servants, teachers, to maintaining roads, schools, hospitals and other non-military infrastructure - would definitely have to come from international donors. The bottom line: It appears we have created a government that the Afghans simply cannot afford,” said Sopko. He said that much of the more than $104 billion the United States has committed to reconstruction projects and programs risks being wasted because the Afghans cannot sustain the investment without massive continued donor support.
Read the whole story
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 РИА Новости |
Власти Пакистана в ближайшее время могут казнить до 500 заключенных
РИА Новости Ранее премьер-министр Пакистана Наваз Шариф принял решение отменить мораторий на смертную казнь после нападения талибов на школу в Пешаваре, где погибли свыше 140 человек. Солдаты у дороги, ведущей к тюрьме в Пакистане, 20 декабря 2014. Власти страны. © AP Photo/ ... и другие » |
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Welcome to our column, Russia Update, where we will be closely following day-to-day developments in Russia, including the Russian government’s foreign and domestic policies.
The previous issue is here, and see also our Russia This Week story The Guild War – How Should Journalists Treat Russian State Propagandists? and special features ‘Managed Spring’: How Moscow Parted Easily with the ‘Novorossiya’ Leaders, Putin ‘The Imperialist’ A Runner-Up For Time’s ‘Person of the Year’ and It’s Not Just Oil and Sanctions Killing Russia’s Economy, It’s Putin.
Protesters have come to the home of Ksenya Sobchak, a popular Russian talk-show host, complaining about her tough questions to President Putin about the burning of homes of terrorists’ relatives in Chechnya. Now she’s threatened with a libel suit by Chechnya as well, and more homes continue to be destroyed.
Please help The Interpreter to continue providing this valuable information service by making a donation towards our costs.
UPDATES BELOW
The President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbaev, has said that Islam is a religion of peace, and that the Islamic State group and Islamic terrorism have nothing to do with that religion.
Judge Orders Spain's Princess Cristina to Stand Trialby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
A judge in Spain has ordered Princess Cristina to stand trial on two charges of tax fraud. The decision Monday follows a four-year investigation that has damaged the Spanish monarchy. The case involves allegations that Cristina's husband, former Olympic handball player Inaki Urdangarin, embezzled millions of dollars in public money through his non-profit foundation. Judge Jose Castro said Monday that the couple and 15 others will stand trial. She has denied any wrongdoing. The case played a role in former King Juan Carlos abdicating his throne in June to Cristina's brother Felipe, who has pledged to make reforms.
 ЛІГА.net |
Пять месяцев спустя Первый канал прокомментировал сюжет о якобы распятом в Славянске мальчике
NEWSru.com Ведущая Первого канала Ирада Зейналова в эфире выпуска программы "Время" в воскресенье, 21 декабря, впервые прокомментировала сюжет о "распятом мальчике", показанный еще в июле этого года. По словам Зейналовой, у беженки из Славянска, которая и рассказала ... Первый канал ответил на вопрос Собчак о сюжете с распятым мальчикомКомсомольская правда Пропагандисты "Первого канала" оправдались за "распятого мальчика" (видео)Подробности "Первый канал" признал, что сюжет про распятого мальчика был фейкомКомсомольская Правда в Украине Life-24.com -Ура-Информ -Snob.ru Все похожие статьи: 44 » |
 Business Insider |
Super-Rich Russians Are Fleeing To The UK In Record Numbers
Business Insider According to Home Office statistics, the number of Russians granted fast-track visas — given to those who will invest at least £2 million ($3.1 million) in the UK — jumped by 69% in 2014 compared with the previous year, The Sunday Times first reported. Russia's super-rich oligarchs fleeing ruble crisis for the UKInternational Business Times UK all 8 news articles » |
 Bloomberg |
Poland Calls for EU Unity Over Russia 0n Ukraine Conflict
Bloomberg Polish Foreign Minister Grzegorz Schetyna said that while divisions about how to deal withRussia existed among some countries and political forces within the European Union, there's consensus that the regime of penalties the bloc has imposed on the ... Russian naval base resumes in CrimeaITAR-TASS all 34 news articles » |
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Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev, during a visit to Kyiv, has reportedly called on Russia and Ukraine to seek compromise in order to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine and preserve its territorial integrity.
 BBC News |
Russia's ex-finance boss warns of 'full-blown crisis'
BBC News Russia's former finance minister has warned the country is entering a "full blown economic crisis" and will enter recession next year. "We are entering or have already entered a full-blown economic crisis, and we're going to feel it to the full next ... Russia needs better relations with West, says former finminwww.worldbulletin.net Kudrin: Russia to see full-fledged economic crisis in 2015Russia Beyond the Headlines Russia faces full-blown crisis, says KudrinFinancial Times all 14 news articles » |
 Reuters |
Russia to bail out Trust Bank with up to $530 million
Reuters Trust, which hired actor Bruce Willis as its face for a series of advertisements, is Russia's 32nd largest lender by assets, according to Interfax data. It is also 15th biggest by private personal accounts, including deposits. As of Dec. 1, Trust held ... Russian bank gets 30 billion rouble bailout – business liveThe Guardian Rouble Crisis Sparks Russia Bank BailoutSky News Russia Is Bailing Out Its First Bank Of The Ruble CrisisBusiness Insider Telegraph.co.uk -Bloomberg -Channel News Asia all 51 news articles » |
In 2014, the Islamic State (IS) extremist group emerged as one of the most powerful jihadi groups in the world. Will the efforts of the U.S.-led coalition be enough to stop the group in its tracks?
Trust bank becomes first financial casualty of Russia’s currency crisis by Larry Elliott, economics editor
Russian central bank throws Moscow institution a $530m lifeline in what is expected to be the first in a series of bailouts
Moscow’s Trust bank has become the first financial casualty of Russia’s currency crisis after the country’s central bank threw it a $530m (£340m) lifeline to prevent it going bankrupt.
Trust, which uses the Hollywood star Bruce Willis to advertise its credit cards, ran into trouble after its policy of offering attractive savings rates and consumer loans fell foul of Russia’s economic slowdown.
Continue reading... Reuters |
Russia entering 'full-fledged economic crisis', says ex-minister Kudrin
Reuters Kudrin -- a darling of investors who is credited with building Russia's $170 billion worth of sovereign wealth funds -- added that sanctions over Ukraine, not falling oil prices, were primarily behind the collapse of the rouble and warned that Russia ... Russia's ex-finance boss warns of 'full-blown crisis'BBC News Russia starts bailing out banks as economy faces 'full-blown economic crisis'Telegraph.co.uk Russia faces full-blown crisis, says KudrinFinancial Times Forbes all 85 news articles » |
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Human Rights Watch осудила казнь россиянина в Пакистане
Газета.Ru Правозащитная организация Human Rights Watch осудила казнь россиянина Ахласа Ахлака в Пакистане. Об этом сообщает РИА «Новости» со ссылкой на программного директора организации по России Татьяну Локшину. «В отношении смертной казни позиция нашей организации ... и другие » |
 Московский комсомолец |
Германия пока не намерена вводить новые санкции против Москвы
Коммерсантъ Власти ФРГ на данный момент не видят необходимости в усилении ограничительных мер в отношении России, заявила на пресс-конференции официальный представитель правительства ФРГ Кристиане Вирц. «В настоящее время мы все согласны с тем, что новых санкций вводить не ... Германия не видит причин вводить новые антироссийские санкцииМосковский комсомолец Германия не видит оснований для введения новых санкций против РоссииРБК Берлин сомневается в необходимости новых санкцийУтро.Ru OAnews -Аргументы и факты -unise.ru Все похожие статьи: 24 » |
Kremlin: Putin to Talk by Phone With EU, Ukraine Leadersby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold phone talks later on Monday with the leaders of France, Germany and Ukraine on a political resolution to the Ukraine crisis, the Kremlin's foreign policy adviser said. “Tonight, another telephone conversation with the presidents of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine will take place, in the so-called 'Normandy-style' format,” Yuri Ushakov told journalists, referring to talks in France in June that involved Putin, Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Petro Poroshenko. “It will focus on the current crisis situation and prospects for the next meeting of the contact group.”
China Condemns 'Cyber Terrorism'by webdesk@voanews.com (Shannon Van Sant)
China condemned cyber terrorism, but said more proof is needed that North Korea hacked Sony Pictures. Its comments came a day after the United States asked China for help blocking cyber attacks from the North. China says it opposes cyber attacks on third parties through making use of the facilities of another country. The comments from China’s Foreign Ministry came after the United States accused North Korea of hacking Sony Pictures. China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said China opposes a country using the internal facilities of another country to launch cyber attacks. Hua said China is ready to carry out dialogue on this issue with other countries based on mutual trust and affirmed that China will act in accordance with law on this issue. Her comments came after China confirmed a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry late Sunday. Has not blamed North Korea During that call, Wang also said China opposes cyber attacks. But in subsequent comments from the Foreign Ministry, China has not blamed North Korea for the Sony attack. When asked if China believed North Korea launched the cyber attack on Sony Pictures through Chinese servers, China’s Foreign Ministry said China needed more facts before making any conclusions. Yesterday U.S. President Barack Obama asked for China and several other countries to help block future cyber attacks from North Korea. China’s help would be crucial. Much of North Korea’s telecommunications runs through Chinese network systems, and U.S. officials said the hacking attack on Sony was routed through Chinese servers. Obama has also vowed to retaliate against North Korea for the attack. Any sanctions the United States might impose on North Korea would need Chinese backing to be effective. In recent years, trade between China and North Korea has soared and China is the top source of food aid to its northeastern neighbor. Cyber security tensions Tensions have risen between the United States and China over cyber security, with each country accusing the other of hacking attacks. Xiaohe Cheng, a professor of International Relations at Renmin University, said this could provide an opportunity for China and the U.S. to improve ties on this issue. “The North Korea situation is very convenient too for China and the United States to restart their stalled conversations over cyber-space security that was suspended a few months ago," Xiaohe said. Chinese media coverage has been critical of the cyber attack on Sony Pictures, but an editorial in the state run Global Times newspaper also wrote that the movie revealed the United States’ “cultural arrogance.” The paper went on to write that, “Some people in the U.S. have complained that China has been suppressing Hollywood's freedom of creativity through economic power. Actually, China should further stick to principles when dealing with Hollywood. Apparently, it is easier to show the U.S. the economic consequences than trying to reason with them.”
Read the whole story
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Germany Sees No Need to Ease Russia Sanctionsby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Germany sees no reason to think about changes to the European Union's sanctions regime against Moscow at the moment, a government spokeswoman said, after the foreign minister expressed concern that Russia could be destabilized if sanctions were not eased. The spokeswoman Christiane Wirtz told a news conference that the expiration of sanctions next year provided a “natural point in time” to debate whether they should continue and in what form. The EU imposed sanctions in a series of escalating steps starting in March of this year. Each round of sanctions is valid for 12 months, meaning they must be renewed in March 2015 if they are to remain in place. “At the current time, we are all in agreement that new sanctions should not be introduced,” Wirtz said. “And as long as the causes of the sanctions remain, as long as they haven't disappeared, then there is no reason to think about lifting the sanctions independent of the agreed time period.” The comments came after Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told German weekly Der Spiegel that he was worried Russia could be destabilized if EU sanctions were not eased. Pointing to the dramatic fall in the ruble currency and declining energy prices, which have sparked an economic and financial crisis in Russia, Steinmeier said: “It cannot be in our interests that this runs out of control.” Steinmeier is a member of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), who have traditionally favored engagement with Russia over confrontation. Until now, he has stuck closely to conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's firm line with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the comments to Der Spiegel suggested cracks may be emerging between the two. Wirtz told the news conference that Merkel had spoken with Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko over the weekend and that both had agreed on the need for a meeting of the so-called Contact Group - which includes envoys from Kyiv, Moscow, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and pro-Russian separatists - to discuss prisoner exchanges and supplies for people living in eastern Ukraine.
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The Islamic State group has released a new video showing four Azerbaijani men it says were arrested as part of a “cell of extremists” who had been plotting an armed rebellion in Raqqa, Islamic State’s de facto capital in Syria.
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