Sunday, March 22, 2015

Permanent Global Multidimensional-Hybrid Warfare ("PGMHW") As Russian Military-Political Strategy - Review | M.N.: I think that the term "multidimensional" is preferable to the term "hybrid", it is more accurate, scent-neutral (free from the deceptive fruity flavor) and allows the unlimited expansion, definitions and descriptions, which might be important practically. Together with the other two characteristics: "permanent" and "global" it should make more or less adequate description of this (not so) new and emerging type of warfare which is practiced in Europe: Ukraine and in the Middle East: Syria and Iraq - ISIS. The fact that these two conflicts have similar features is interesting and telling in and by itself. | "When is a war a war? It is entirely possible that the Russians are engaged in what they recognise as a war and we do not." - When is a war not a war? When it's Hybrid. | "Hybrid warfare, on display now in regional conflicts, will one day be turned against the U.S. and our military forces. Counter-UW should be included in joint and service exercises, as well as operational and contingency plans." - Defense in Depth » Counter-Unconventional Warfare Is the Way of the Future. How Can We Get There? | "Political warfare" may be an alien-sounding concept in 2013, but that is precisely the problem. The United States will never best its rivals and enemies without enhancing its capacity to exert influence in countries whose futures are up for grabs. That this can be done successfully should be clear from the experience of the Cold War, even if there are many differences between the situation then and now. It is high time to rediscover lost skill sets and get to work countering the attempts of various anti-American actors to shape the world—and in particular the Muslim world—in their own image. - Political Warfare - Council on Foreign Relations


Permanent Global Multidimensional Warfare As Russian Military-Political Strategy - Review

Update: 3.31.15

M.N.: I think that the term "multidimensional" is preferable to the term "hybrid", it is more accurate, scent-neutral (free from the deceptive fruity flavor) and allows the broad conceptual expansion, definitions and descriptions, which might be important practically. Together with the other two characteristics: long term, "perpetual" or "permanent" (conceptual link with "permanent revolution" is evident, just as the overall general link between revolution and "hybrid" war: "this is one of our first clues to understanding the nature of hybrid warfare. There is a continuum that extends from revolutionary violence to military violence, and it is not necessary to limit oneself to any one point on this continuum if one has the ability to act across the spectrum of operations.") and "global" (which are revealed in Russian article on "the new type of the superwar" listed in the previous post: "...мы живём в условиях нового типа «сверхвойны», которая стала гибридной, глобальной, а главное – постоянной. И в отличие от реального вооружённого конфликта распознать, кто свой, а кто чужой, здесь гораздо сложнее.") it should make more or less adequate description of this (not so) new and emerging type of warfare which is practiced in Europe: Ukraine and in the Middle East: Syria and Iraq - ISIS. The fact that these two conflicts have similar features is interesting and telling in and by itself. These dimensions include (but are not limited to): 
Apparently, the strategies for counteracting this type of warfare should aim at addressing each of this dimensions separately and its root cause as a whole. 
The long term and strategic goal of engaging Russia as a reliable and true partner of the West and as a part of Western civilization was on the agenda since the end of the Cold War. The recent developments pose the question if the Cold War really ended or the old and nonviable ideological conflict was substituted with the frank and open geopolitical one, which was always lurking below the surface in the historical messianic "Third Rome" - "Great Russia" aspirations and the quest for "Eurasian" domination. 
The next question is: What are the most efficient tactics for achieving this overarching strategic goal in the present circumstances? To pretend that the virtual "mafia state" (which it undoubtedly is in its behavior at home and abroad) can be a partner in any ways is the most dangerous self-deception and illusion. To try to "contain" it patiently and to ignore the brazen antics of the self-unmasked criminal entity is the same as to put a band-aide on a spreading infectious abscess which threatens to affect the whole world body. At the same time you cannot risk the health and the very life of this body with the decisive surgical intervention. The conservative treatment with "time and money" might or might not lead to a "regime change" in the observable future. No easy decisions and no easy solutions. Some new, novel, inventive tactics should be entertained, which also is not that easy in the present climate of self-defeat and demoralization, which might be a part of the adversary's intentionally pre-manufactured plan and design. 
And yet something has to be done. 
One additional side note. Traditionally, the security services and probably even more so the military in the USSR were considered by Western observers to be the least corrupt of the state entities and institutions. Their corruption was and is on a different level and of a different kind. The same might be truth in today's Russia. This might be paradoxical (as always, and in this case even more paradoxical than usually) but fact. The upper echelons of the security-military establishment might be more aware of the dangers and risks of the present situation for Russia, more so than the over-bloated oligarchs and mid-level state functionaries. It might be important and productive to establish and maintain the meaningful communications with them, both formal and informal, through official and non-official channels, which does not exclude but is aided by relentless tightening of the screw of sanctions and isolation. 
All changes, evolutionary and revolutionary, in Russia come from above, more so than in other European countries. The regime change might be gradual but no less effective. Their present paradigm of "manual management" is not sustainable and viable and they probably do understand this. Regardless of the internal dynamics of the governing circle, which are shifting constantly if almost imperceptibly, there might be the common gut feeling among them that the change is due and the change is good and it might even be absolutely needed. 


Quotes and Review of Literature on "Hybrid" Warfare


"Q. As you train Ukrainian forces, what have you learned from them?
A. The fighting that has been going on in Ukraine is a very serious, kinetic, violent steel-on-steel fight. This is not some rebels sniping at each other. This is massive amounts of artillery, massive amounts of rockets, T-72 tanks, land mines, direct-fire weapons, thousands of troops involved. The proxies, the so-called separatists, clearly are being supported very actively by Russia. The border between eastern Ukraine and Russia is wide open, so every week there are convoys coming through that are unmonitored. Russians do not allow OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe] to monitor what is in those convoys, but the volume of artillery and rocket ammunition that has been expended is eye-watering. The quality of the electronic warfare [EW] capability that Russians have employed in eastern Ukraine, this is not something that you can create in the basement of your home. So when President Putin says, well these are just coal miners and tractor drivers, it is an obvious lie.
...
Q. You're seeing cyber operations too?
A. Absolutely. Well, the interesting thing about cyber is that it is often difficult to attribute where it comes from. It will not have a Russian flag attached to it.
So our first priority is protecting our systems, all of our allies, especially since we are all multinational in our formations. The old adage about the weakest link is definitely true when you are talking about any multinational interconnected battle command system. That's a legitimate concern that we have to worry about, and we have to train on it."

» Interview: Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges
28/03/15 20:03 from Mike Nova's Shared Newslinks
mikenova shared this story from Defense News - Home. What drawdown? The US Army is busier in Europe than ever, answering Russian aggression with a series of multinational exercises across Eastern Europe and the promise to permanently sta...

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Russian military thinking from the 20th century to the present day has often been in advance of Western military thinking, even if their technology has not. In terms of military theory arguably the Russians first grasped the true potential of mass mechanisation and Precision Guided Munitions. In this instance the words of General Valery Gerasimov the current Russian Chief of the General Staff are worth careful attention:
The very “rules of war” have changed. The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, such new-type conflicts are comparable with the consequences of any real war.
The focus of applied methods of conflict has altered in the direction of of the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other nonmilitary measures – applied in coordination with the protest potential of the population.
What the Russians appear to be saying, much like the Chinese in their theory of “War Beyond Rules” and doctrine of “Three Warfares” is that in terms of decisive effect the power of military force has declined relative to other levers of national power. To put it bluntly in the operational architecture of “Shape, Clear and Hold” conventional military force is being applied only in the hold phase. It is entirely possible that the Russians are engaged in what they recognise as a war and we do not.
For democracies and coalitions with devolved and/or consensual decision making systems, this form of conflict is highly problematic as it provides multiple dilemmas, many not in the military sphere. Conversely states and bodies with a highly centralised decision making system, such as autocracies, can gain a significant advantage in tempo and initiative. Even more worrying from the West’s perspective if our view of war is different from that held elsewhere the strategic calculus becomes very difficult (as can be seen in the Ukraine); when is a war a war? At what point is NATO’s Article V invoked?
Confused thinking hampers clear communication and hinders effect response, especially in a coalition or alliance context. If NATO and the EU cannot agree on what hybrid warfare is than it is unlikely to agree on how to respond.
What is clear from both the current conflict in Ukraine and much of the thinking going on is that the traditional Western concept of war and warfare is under challenge and that this will challenge Western security assumptions, policies and structures.

When is a war not a war? When it's Hybrid.



The Growing Threat of Hybrid Warfare
Counter-UW, to a large degree, is about responding to the increasing use of hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has been defined as a combination of conventional, irregular, and asymmetric means, including the persistent manipulation of political and ideological conflict, and can include the combination of special operations and conventional military forces; intelligence agents; political provocateurs; media representatives; economic intimidation; cyber attacks; and proxies and surrogates, para-militaries, terrorist, and criminal elements. Hybrid warfare places a premium on unconventional warfare (UW)—defined in military doctrine as activities conducted to enable a resistance movement to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government. External sponsorship often provides the motivation, resources, and support to people attempting to destabilize international and regional security. Some examples of this strategy include the Russo-Georgian war of August 2008, Russia’s current activities in Ukraine, and potential future Russian moves in the Baltics, as well as Iran’s use of surrogates such as Hezbollah. Accordingly, a United States capacity for counter-UW is absolutely necessary...
Hybrid warfare, on display now in regional conflicts, will one day be turned against the U.S. and our military forces. Counter-UW should be included in joint and service exercises, as well as operational and contingency plans. Additionally, the military services should explore how to integrate a supporting SOF counter-UW campaign within their broader operations.

Defense in Depth » Counter-Unconventional Warfare Is the Way of the Future. How Can We Get There?


"Political warfare" may be an alien-sounding concept in 2013, but that is precisely the problem. The United States will never best its rivals and enemies without enhancing its capacity to exert influence in countries whose futures are up for grabs. That this can be done successfully should be clear from the experience of the Cold War, even if there are many differences between the situation then and now. It is high time to rediscover lost skill sets and get to work countering the attempts of various anti-American actors to shape the world—and in particular the Muslim world—in their own image.

Political Warfare - Council on Foreign Relations


Rediscovering ‘hybrid warfare’

The politico-military methods employed by Russia gave NATO and its members pause for thought. Moscow successfully employed a broad range of traditional and non-traditional instruments to achieve its goals in Crimea, and to some degree in eastern Ukraine. The first problem for NATO was to define the nature of the challenge, and there was some concern in the West about possible gaps in its ability to counter Russia’s employment of what was generally labelled ‘hybrid’ warfare. The methods applied included the use of military and non-military tools in an integrated campaign designed to achieve surprise, seize the initiative and gain psychological as well as physical advantages utilising diplomatic means; sophisticated and rapid information, electronic and cyber operations; covert and occasionally overt military and intelligence action; and economic pressure.

Editor’s Introduction | IISS


Links:


Separatist fighter admits Russian tanks, troops 'decisive in eastern Ukraine battles' 

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Head of rebel special forces detachment says regular army units from Russia play key role in victories

» Interview: Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges
28/03/15 20:03 from Mike Nova's Shared Newslinks
mikenova shared this story from Defense News - Home. What drawdown? The US Army is busier in Europe than ever, answering Russian aggression with a series of multinational exercises across Eastern Europe and the promise to permanently sta...

» Guerrilla warfare - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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» Editor’s Introduction | IISS
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mikenova shared this story . At the beginning of 2015, defence and security planners were reflecting on a preceding year that added extra crises to an already increasingly complex and fractured global security environment. European secur...
» political warfare - Google Search
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mikenova shared this story . Search Results Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and...
» Political Warfare - Council on Foreign Relations
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mikenova shared this story from CFR.org -. Authors: Max Boot , Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, and Michael Doran, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution Pu...
» Defense in Depth » Counter-Unconventional Warfare Is the Way of the Future. How Can We Get There?
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mikenova shared this story from Defense in Depth. Pro-Russian rebels ride on an armored personnel carrier (APC) during a parade in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, September 14, 2014. (Marko Djurica/Courtesy Reuters) This commentary comes court...
» The Russian Military - Council on Foreign Relations
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mikenova shared this story from CFR.org -. Introduction The Russian military suffered years of neglect after the Soviet collapse and no longer casts the shadow of a global superpower. However, the Russian armed forces are in the midst of...
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» When is a war not a war? When it's Hybrid.
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mikenova shared this story from Comments on: When is a war not a war? When it’s Hybrid.. At the Munich Security Conference last week Angela Merkel was talking Hybrid Warfare. Hybrid warfare is most definitely back in vogue, wise heads po...
» Lessons from Surkov’s Russia: The Split Personality (Dis)Order of Modern Geopolitics
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mikenova shared this story from The Geopolitical Philosophy of Drones. What we fail to understand about Russia is not greed. What we fail to understand is not the power-hungry Mr. Putin, nor the corruption that stems from his example. If...
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mikenova shared this story from The American Conservative. Last night on BBC Radio I heard a Russian soldier who is fighting in Ukraine describe what he and his colleagues are doing there as fighting “a holy war” for Mother R...
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mikenova shared this story from In Moscow's Shadows. But what happens when the bear looks like a stray dog, or a cute little kitten? Call it non-linear war (which I prefer), or hybrid war , or special war , Russia’s operations ...
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mikenova shared this story from The InterpreterThe Interpreter. President Vladimir Putin arrives in Astana, March 20, 2015. Photo by Presidential Press Service Welcome to our column, Russia Update , where we will be closely following day...
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2,513,544 2,513,544 2015-03-22 Московская конференция по международной безопасности - Google Search США не смогут завершить вывод войск из Афганистана к концу 2014 года «Возможные варианты развития обстановки в Афганистане после вывода и...
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mikenova shared this story from War on the Rocks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine challenges our traditional Western concepts of warfare. The current crisis, pitting the national government against separatists, Russian ultra-nationalists...
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mikenova shared this story . In a piece published in the June–July issue of Survival , I considered ‘Ukraine and the Art of Crisis Management’. 1 My aim was to explore the relevance of the strategic concepts of the Cold...
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See also: 


Monday, March 30, 2015

Permanent global hybrid warfare as russian military-political strategy - Recent Posts Review



Sunday, March 22, 2015








Friday, March 20, 2015


M.N.: Emboldened by the Crimean "anschluss" and the success of the "special war" in Eastern Ukraine, which are the results of Obama's unpreparedness and incomprehensible inaction, to put it mildly; the Russian spies and "little green men" of various persuasions and tasks, in cahoots with the local "fifth columns" of recent Russian emigres and their broad coalition of multicolored allies, from far left to far right, became openly, unprecedentedly, intolerably brazen and viciously covertly aggressive, standing just a step away from the actual war: "...Russia does not play by Western rules, and Putin and his Kremlin, being Chekists to their core, place great value on what I term Special War, meaning a shadowy amalgam of espionage, propaganda, and terrorism that Western states are poorly positioned to counter." - Putin Turns Up His Special War Against Europe by John R. Schindler







Wednesday, March 18, 2015


M.N.: They answered: "And now we declared this war: "Jihad! Jihad!" So what? Catch me if you can...": "A government official with direct knowledge of the incident told CNN that the detained passenger had run toward the cockpit screaming "jihad, jihad."




Tuesday, March 17, 2015