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ISIS Is Using Tunnel Bombs in Iraq
08/06/15 16:05 from Defense One - All Content
Updating an ancient tactic, Islamic State militants — as well as rebels in Syria — are digging virtually undetectable tunnels, then planting bombs to blow up buildings and other targets.
The aim of intelligence analysis is straightforward enough: to foresee emerging threats to the extent that one can prepare sufficiently in advance to either prevent or at least mitigate them. Research lies at the core of this enterprise in forecasting risk, whether via classified or unclassified data. But at a time when open source information is exponentially increasing in direct proportion to levels of uncertainty, how such foresight is conducted and by whom has become a key concern.
In 2011, the US government took a bold step in attempting to address those concerns. TheIntelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (or IARPA, a division of the Office of the Director of National intelligence) invested in a four-year exploration of the underpinnings of better foresight analysis. Known as the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program, the initiative used a tournament originally consisting of five teams of forecasters to determine which individuals were most adept at forecasting future geopolitical outcomes and which traits shaped the best. Investigators and observers alike were surprised by the tournament’s results.
Echoes from the last century
While the harnessing and development of expertise has become the default sine qua non of what is considered to be good analysis, there was a time when this was not necessarily supported by the entire US intelligence community. During the 1980s and 1990s, key analysts argued against the use of experts as the sole guide to good analytical ability. In his lauded collection of essays and articles inPsychology of Intelligence Analysis , CIA analyst Richards J. Heuer, Jr. suggested that expertise alone is simply not enough. Influenced by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s and Amos Tversky’s investigations into human psychology and decision-making (summarized in Kahneman’s modern classic, “ Thinking Fast and Slow”), Heuer, Jr. proclaimed process in critical thinking as a better catalyst in analytical performance.
Heuer’s focus on cognitive style - a departure from academic and government thinking at the time - established a few clear boundaries. He believed, for instance, that training analysts to recognize their own cognitive biases had no positive impact in the accuracy of their foresight. In addition, Heuer, Jr. argued against placing an emphasis on analytical accountability. As he saw it, measuring analytical precision was a foolhardy pursuit due to the fog of uncertainty surrounding geopolitical affairs. His larger message instead emphasized the constant challenging of analytical assumptions—the “mental models” analysts developed (Heuer 1999)—by updating and refining through the use of alternative points of view.
Unfortunately, Heuer’s advice to avoid the trap of relying upon “more and better information” as an analytical solution was not always heeded by the intelligence community. Indeed, in his foreword to Heuer’s book , fellow CIA analyst Douglas MacEachin highlights the default tendency to throw more expertise at a problem when analysis goes wrong, as well as “the ideological and bureaucratic imperatives” that get in the way of more effective analytical techniques.
Fast forward to today, and the echoes of Heuer’s work reverberate as strongly in the practical realm as in the theoretical. In early 2015, the US intelligence community communicated its awareness that it could no longer conduct business as usual. At the beginning of March, CIA Director John Brennanannounced a major restructuring of the Agency. A greater emphasis is to be placed on enhancing the skills of CIA staff by breaking down the walls between “operations” and “analysis”.
Prior to Brennan’s announcement, Jane Harman, CEO of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former ranking Democrat on the US House Intelligence Committee, echoed the need for a "disruptive upgrade" and "smarter spying”. In several articles, she also highlighted the importance of developing a cyber-ready corps with open source media (especially social media) expertise. Adding to the burgeoning chorus of demands for improved intelligence analytical skills is the 9/11 Review Commission’s most recent report to FBI Director James B. Comey. In keeping with comments made by Brennan and Harman, it also urges the agency to accelerate its efforts in adapting its intelligence cadre to the increasing pace of threats.
Lessons to be learned
Indeed, Heuer’s important message now requires further review, given the amount of empirical data that has been gathered by researchers in recent years. This data has, in turn, been the key output of the winner of IARPA’s ACE tournament, the Good Judgment Project. Led by principal investigators Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at University of Pennsylvania, and Don Moore at University of California, Berkeley, the Project took cues from Tetlock’s own work, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Like Heuer, Tetlock eschewed the validity of experts as the best forecasters. However, unlike Heuer, Tetlock based his assessment on a clinical evaluation of the accuracy of thousands of forecasts made by experts and generalists alike. Tetlock’s examination suggested that open-minded generalists could be far better than experts in analyzing and predicting outcomes.
As recognized specialists in the fields of political judgment and decision-making, the Good Judgment team focused on—among other issues—the psychological qualities of perception and cognition apparent in the top analysts. Aided only by open source data, Good Judgment forecasters were able to surpass the forecasting accuracy of intelligence community analysts with access to classified information , thus substantiating Tetlock’s theory regarding the predominance of select generalists over experts.
But perhaps most germane to both public and private sector needs in light of mounting uncertainty was the determination that forecasting accuracy is a trainable skill. While the data collected by the Good Judgment Project supports Heuer’s primary assertion that the constant challenging of beliefs is an integral aspect of more accurate analysis, it also refutes his aversion to cognitive de-biasing and analytical accountability. The core results from The Good Judgment Project—train, team and track for better analytical training—demonstrate the statistically significant effect on forecasting accuracy achieved by teaching people how to recognize and limit their cognitive biases; gain awareness over the potential gap in confidence over what they think they know and what they actually know; how to think in an actively open-minded manner; and how to apply probabilities in a very granular way when assessing outcomes.
However, the gains made from training analysts in cognitive technique are not enough. The Good Judgment Project urges keeping analysts accountable by tracking their performance over time and teaming the best forecasters with each other to compound the effects of greater accuracy. Taken together, the results of the Good Judgment Project surpass the contrarian formidability of Heuer’s work and point the way forward in measurably improving analytical technique and preparing a new generation of analysts, whether in business, the intelligence community or other government departments.
Barriers…still
The final outcome of the ACE Program poses an obvious question: how could the success of the Good Judgment Project be factored into the modernization and improvement of 21st century intelligence analysis? With great difficulty is the short answer. Irrespective of the CIA’s recent announcement, the transition to new analytical standards will require time and patience, as well as new training and development programs. Analysts are rarely required to step back from their niche remits to take the broader and actively open-minded views that are foundational to better accuracy. Consequently, intelligence operatives are not taught how to develop this attribute. Moreover, stovepiping and the compartmentalization of analysis—impediments to the kind of crowdsourced teamwork from which Good Judgment’s most accurate forecasters benefited--won’t be easily reduced, whether in government or business circles. And let’s not forget that the politics of hierarchy also plays a role. When experts within bureaucracies serve vested interests, their replacement by process happens fitfully, if at all.
Entrenched cultures aren’t the only barriers that need breaking down in order to reform analytical structures. The vast stores of open source information that analysts must sift through will require better aggregation and filtering if this revolution in analytical affairs is to succeed. While machine learning, artificial intelligence and natural language processing methods are quickly ramping up to semantically trawl the zettabytes-worth of data the Internet contains, they have yet to be incorporated into a usable and widely distributed tool for analysts. Over time, as dependency on algorithms in forecasting risk increases, accountability will dictate putting human analysts at the front and center as a counterbalance to the limitations of computation alone.
The first quarter of 2015 could represent a watershed moment in history when the intelligence community acknowledged the need for a sea change in analytical approaches and a swift transition. While the recognition that change must come has arrived, the execution of its transition is far less assured.
Regina Joseph is the founder of Sibylink, an international consultancy based in The Hague and New York devoted to providing strategic foresight on global issues through futures forecasting and analytical training. She is also a faculty member at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs, where she will be launching a Futures Lab in Fall 2015.
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By Kylie BullManaging Editor of HSToday
Special to In Homeland Security
Special to In Homeland Security
The international community must intensify efforts to protect the world’s nuclear facilities from cyber attacks, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog declared on June 1 as he opened the organization’s first-ever conference on the issue at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) headquarters in Vienna.
Sounding the alarm in front of more than 650 experts from 92 member states, IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said the inaugural International Conference on Computer Security in a Nuclear World sent “an important message” that the world is finally “serious about protecting nuclear and other radioactive material.”
“Reports of actual or attempted cyber attacks are now virtually a daily occurrence,” Amano affirmed, warning that the nuclear industry had not been immune from the global threat. “Last year alone, there were cases of random malware-based attacks at nuclear power plants and of such facilities being specifically targeted.”
The threat of cybercrime and cyber attacks has been steadily growing over recent years, particularly in developing countries where criminals can exploit legal loopholes and weak security measures, according to recent findings by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.
The Conference – organized in cooperation with INTERPOL, the International Telecommunication Union, the UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute and International Electrotechnical Commission – which ends today, illustrates ways member states and stakeholders can better anticipate and protect themselves from cyber attacks.
In addition, member states will address a range of issues pertaining to trends in cyber attack and defense, computer security management in nuclear security, computer security threat analysis, computer security for industrial control systems and operator experience in implementing computer security.
“Staff responsible for nuclear security should know how to repel cyber-attacks and to limit the damage if systems are actually penetrated,” Amano continued. “The IAEA is doing what it can to help governments, organizations, and individuals adapt to evolving technology-driven threats from skilled cyber adversaries.”
Read the full article at HSToday.
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Washington, DC, is reeling from revelations that the Office of Personnel Management, the Federal government’s HR hub, has been extensively hacked. OPM is an obscure but important agency since it holds the personnel records of Federal workers, past and present, and even more, it conducts background investigations for security clearance holders across many Federal agencies.
Based on available information so far, the records of some four million Federal workers, going back to 1985, have been compromised, of whom 2.1 million are currently serving. In what has become the custom inside the Beltway, OPM had repeated warnings about its slipshod computer security practices but not much was done despite the enormously rising threat of foreign hackers. The extent of this needless debacle is truly disastrous, as I explained in a series of tweets the other day.
Speaking as a former counterintelligence officer, it really doesn’t get much worse than this. For our Intelligence Community to get hit by this and the Snowden debacle within two years speaks to systemic failure, not “oversights” and “mistakes” any longer. We’re not serious about stemming foreign espionage, as I recently explained, and now that neglect has caused serious pain that will last decades. Some of the damage may not be repairable, ever.
The IC is pointing the finger at China, tentatively, apparently at hacking entities that have a “close relationship” with Chinese intelligence. The case for official Chinese culpability is growing. It seems that Beijing is using aggressive hacking to establish a database of information about millions of Federal workers and security clearance holders.
Why China would do that isn’t difficult to guess. While defensive counterintelligence, the preventing and uncovering of enemy spies, is the “JV” level of counterespionage, as President Obama might put it (notwithstanding that the IC can’t manage even this), the real pros engage in offensive counterintelligence, which aims at recruiting spies inside the enemy camp, particularly inside the opposing intelligence service. That’s how you gain control of the enemy’s central nervous system: You know what he knows about you, hence you can deceive him at a strategic level. This is the essence of SpyWar, as I’ve explained, the secret struggle between the West and adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran, a clandestine battle that never ceases, yet that the public seldom gets wind of, except when something goes wrong. “May we read about you in the newspapers,” is the old Mossad curse/wag for a reason.
Whoever now holds OPM’s records possesses something like the Holy Grail from a CI perspective. They can target Americans in their database for recruitment or influence. After all, they know their vices, every last one — the gambling habit, the inability to pay bills on time, the spats with former spouses, the taste for something sexual on the side (perhaps with someone of a different gender than your normal partner) — since all that is recorded in security clearance paperwork (to get an idea of how detailed this gets, you can see the form, called an SF86, here).
Do you have friends in foreign countries, perhaps lovers past and present? They know all about them. That embarrassing dispute with your neighbor over hedges that nearly got you arrested? They know about that too. Your college drug habit? Yes, that too. Even what your friends and neighbors said about you to investigators, highly personal and revealing stuff, that’s in the other side’s possession now.
Perhaps the most damaging aspect of this is not merely that four million people are vulnerable to compromise, through no fault of their own, but that the other side now so dominates the information battlespace that it can halt actions against them. If they get word that a American counterintelligence officer, in some agency, is on the trail of one of their agents, they can pull out the stops and create mayhem for him or her: run up debts falsely (they have all the relevant data), perhaps plant dirty money in bank accounts (they have all the financials too), and thereby cause any curious officials to lose their security clearances. Since that is what would happen.
If this sounds like a nightmare scenario for Washington, DC, that’s because it is. Decades of neglect have gotten us here and it will take decades to get us out of it. The first step is admitting the extent of the problem. Getting serious about security and counterintelligence, finally, is the closely related second step. Back in the 1990’s, CI professionals warned the U.S. government about the hazards of putting everything online (we also pointed this out about internal databases that were supposed to be “secure”). Any cautions or caveats were dismissed as “old think,” out of hand. We were right about this, just as we were right about insider threats like Snowden. The past is the past, it’s time to move forward and do better without delay. The SpyWar is heating up and there’s no time to waste.
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The U.S. government has long known about its cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and the problem is only getting worse, President Barack Obama said Monday.
"We have known for a long time that there are significant vulnerabilities, and that these vulnerabilities are going to accelerate as time goes by, both in systems within government and within the private sector," Obama said at news conference from the Group of Seven summit in Germany.
Obama declined to say who the U.S. thinks is responsible for a massive hack attack that exposed the data of about 4 million current and former federal employees. Several media reports have indicated, however, that investigators believe Chinese hackers are to blame.
The president emphasized the escalating digital threats mean Congress should move ahead with passing cybersecurity legislation.
Part of the U.S. problem is that the country has "very old systems," he said, adding that the recent breach was discovered because of efforts to install newer and better systems.
"Both state and non-state actors are sending everything they've got at trying to breach these systems," he said. "And this problem is not going to go away—it is going to accelerate."
Turning to international issues, Obama said Russian troops continue to operate in Ukraine, but the U.S. and its allies remain committed to continuing sanctions against Moscow.
Noting that it is the second year in a row that the group has met without Russian representation, the president noted sanctions' effects against Russia: a weakened economy in "deep recession," and struggling financial and energy sectors.
Obama said the G7 is willing to continue its sanctions against Moscow, including Europe extending its sectoral sanctions beyond July. More sanctions could even be on their way, he added.
"There was discussion about additional steps that we might need to take if Russia, working through separatists, doubled down on aggression inside of Ukraine," Obama said, adding that "those discussions are taking place at a technical level, not yet at a political level."
Turning to economic considerations, the president shot down a report that he had been talking down the U.S. dollar in private meetings.
"Don't believe unnamed quotes," he said. "I did not say that, and I make a practice of not commenting on the daily fluctuations of the dollar or any other currency."
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BY: Reuters
KRUEN, Germany (Reuters) – U.S. President Barack Obama said on Monday that Russian forces continue to operate in eastern Ukraine despite Moscow’s denials and the world’s major industrial democracies stood ready to impose significantly tougher sanctions if necessary.
Obama told a news conference after a Group of Seven industrial nations’ summit in Germany that existing sanctions would remain in place until Moscow and Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine fully respected a ceasefire agreement negotiated in Minsk in February.
“As we’ve seen again in recent days, Russian forces continue to operate in eastern Ukraine, violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said.
“Russia is in deep recession. So Russia’s actions in Ukraine are hurting Russia and hurting the Russian people,” Obama said. “And the G7 is making it clear that if necessary we stand ready to impose additional significant sanctions against Russia.”
(Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Paul Carrel)
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WASHINGTON (Tribune News Service) — Islamic State militants and their followers have discovered an unnerving new communications and recruiting tool that has stymied U.S. counter-terrorism agencies: instant messaging apps on smartphones that encrypt the texts or destroy them almost immediately.
In many cases, U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies can’t read the messages in real time, or even later with a court order, because the phone companies and the app developers say they can’t unlock the coded text and don’t retain a record of the exchanges.
“We’re past going dark in certain instances,” said Michael B. Steinbach, the FBI’s top counter-terrorism official. “We are dark.”
The hole in U.S. surveillance capabilities was not mentioned during the recent congressional battle over the National Security Agency’s bulk collection of U.S. landline and cellphone data. Lawmakers ultimately agreed to scale back that program because of concerns it violated Americans’ privacy.
FBI officials now want Congress to expand their authority to tap into messaging apps like WhatsApp and Kik, as well as data-destroying apps like Wickr and Surespot, that hundreds of millions of people — and apparently some militants — have embraced precisely because they guarantee security and anonymity.
The FBI estimates that 200,000 people around the world see increasingly sophisticated “terrorist messaging” each day from Islamic State zealots via direct appeals, videos, instruction manuals and other material posted on militant Islamist social media sites.
The group’s recruiters then troll Twitter, Facebook and other sites to see who is re-posting their messages and invite them to text directly on encrypted or data-destroying apps. That’s where FBI agents fear they will miss crucial clues about potential plots.
Investigators have seen Islamic State recruiters increase their use of encrypted apps over the last several months, two senior law enforcement officials said.
But details of cases in which the technology was used have been kept secret because investigators didn’t want potential terrorists to know about the blind spot. The issue came to light in a congressional hearing last week.
During recent terrorism prosecutions, FBI agents have taken steps to prevent information about the gap from being released publicly in court documents, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter.
The issue has created another tense standoff between national security officials and social media companies reluctant to change their software and provide more access to law enforcement and intelligence agencies.
In a June 1 speech, Tim Cook, chief executive at Apple, fiercely defended his company’s decision to encrypt the content of Facetime and iMessage communications. He took aim at government officials who have asked Apple and other companies to create a backdoor key to encrypted messages.
“Let me be crystal clear,” Cook said. “Weakening encryption or taking it away harms good people that are using it for the right reasons. And ultimately, I believe it has a chilling effect on our First Amendment rights and undermines our country’s founding principles.”
Cook spoke through a remote video feed at the annual awards dinner for the Electronic Privacy Information Center, a watchdog group based in Washington.
At a congressional hearing Wednesday, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said Kik, WhatsApp, Wickr and Surespot are among the messaging apps that extremists are using to avoid detection. Executives from those four companies did not respond to requests for comment Friday.
“These tactics are a sea change for spreading terror, and they require from us a paradigm shift in our counter-terrorism, intelligence and our operations,” McCaul said. He did not cite specific cases in which militants used those apps to evade investigators.
Steinbach, the FBI’s counter-terrorism chief, said at the hearing that the FBI wants to be able to take a court order to a company and request access to either stored text messages or continuing communications in terrorism cases.
“We’re talking about going before the court, whether the criminal court or the national security court, with evidence, a burden of proof, probable cause, suggesting a crime has been committed or, in our case, that there’s a terrorist,” he said.
“We’re not looking at going through a back door or being nefarious,” he said.
“We are imploring Congress to help us seek legal remedies toward that as well as asking the companies to provide technological solutions to help that,” Steinbach said.
Public demand for apps that guarantee security and anonymity is growing, in part in response to leaks by Edward Snowden, the former NSA contractor who disclosed the government’s bulk collection of emails, phone records and other communications.
Secure apps are popular with business executives concerned about the threat of corporate espionage, human rights activists operating in authoritarian countries, and teenagers simply seeking to evade their parents.
Kik, based in Waterloo, Canada, claims more than 200 million users in 230 countries, including, it says, 40 percent of American youths. An eight-page “Guide to Law Enforcement” on Kik’s website states, “The text of Kik conversations is ONLY stored on the phones of Kik users involved in the conversation. Kik doesn’t see or store chat message text in our systems, and we don’t ever have access to this information.”
Those features can frustrate law enforcement and intelligence authorities trying to track suspected terrorists and spies.
“It is important for those who are providing the services to understand what the threats are and to be responsible... in terms of taking action to prevent designated terrorist groups from using their services to try to get people to commit terrorist acts here,” John Carlin, head of national security for the Justice Department, said in an interview.
U.S. officials have racked up notable successes using less restrictive social media platforms to help identify and find terrorism suspects.
The FBI has arrested nearly 40 alleged supporters and sympathizers of Islamic State since last summer on suspicion of seeking to join terrorist groups or giving them material support.
The “vast, vast majority” had a connection to social media, Carlin said, and that trend is “continuing to increase.”
Two recent cases proved deadly. On June 2, an FBI agent and a Boston police officer shot and killed a 26-year-old former security guard in Roslindale, Mass., after he allegedly lunged at them with a knife. The FBI had been tracking his online communications with Islamic State for at least several days.
A month earlier, two armed men were shot and killed as they sought to attack a Muhammad cartoon contest in Garland, Texas. The FBI had investigated one of the men for his online messages with the militant group.
And in at least one recent case, a social media post exposed an Islamic State target to U.S. warplanes.
Air Force analysts at Hurlburt Field, Fla., recently helped obliterate a command center in Syria after a militant revealed enough information online to give away his position.
“The (airmen are) combing through social media and they see some moron standing at this command,” Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, head of Air Combat Command at Langley Air Force Base, Va., said in a speech on June 1, according to Air Force Times. “And in some social media, open forum, bragging about command and control capabilities for (Islamic State). And these guys go, ‘Ah, we got an in.’
“So they do some work. Long story short, about 22 hours later through that very building, three (‘smart’ bombs) take that entire building out. Through social media. It was a post on social media. Bombs on target in 22 hours,” he said.
“It was incredible work, and incredible airmen doing this sort of thing.”
Last fall, Islamic State leaders issued an order that forbids fighters from photographing attacks and locations without permission from the group’s general council. The group also distributed a guide to removing geo-location and metadata from cellphone images.
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VoA - News Tuesday 9th June, 2015
WASHINGTON - The chairman of the House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee, Congressman Michael McCaul, said "threat indicators" point to China being responsible for the hacking of U.S. government computers revealed last week. But the White House says the identities and motives for the attack remain under investigation.
McCaul, appearing on U.S. television Sunday, said the hacking of computer systems at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) involving the records of up to four million current and former federal employees is the most significant breach of federal networks in U.S. history.
"We look at the threat indicators. Who has the motive and intent to steal this data? This is a huge data-mining project and it targets political appointees in the federal government and federal employees, four million of them. In my judgment, this was an attack by China against the United States government. It quantifies to espionage," said McCaul.
McCaul said the source of the attack, discovered in April and made public last Thursday, has not yet been confirmed, but the way it was carried out suggests to him the Chinese government was involved.
"It was not done to steal credit card information and that kind of theft. It was done to get personal information on political appointees in the federal government and federal employees to exploit them so that later, down the road, they can use that for espionage to either recruit spies or compromise individuals in the federal government," he said.
Referring to the breach earlier this year of tens of millions of personal files at the Anthem health insurance company, McCaul said the attack on OPM came from the same source in China.
China has called the accusation irresponsible and unscientific. An editorial published Monday in the state-controlled Global Times daily newspaper characterized the hacker issue as a "stick with which the United States readily beats China," but one that the U.S. "is never able to provide concrete evidence."
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman has said such attacks are generally anonymous and their origins are hard to trace.
Appearing on a separate program Sunday, Congressman Adam Schiff, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said there are only two possibilities regarding such a sophisticated attack.
"Either a state actor or a group of very sophisticated private hackers who often work in concert with the state and the motivation is either going to be fraud in terms of ripping off peoples' identity or, if it's a state-sponsored attack, it will be personal information that can be exploited to identify people who might be working in the intelligence community, and the real challenge, I think, is that in this age of asymmetric cyber-warfare those on the offense have all the advantage. It's very expensive to defend. You just need one open door and you're vulnerable, and you can often attack with anonymity and be free of repercussions. And, I think one of the big things we have to do, in addition to our defense, is figure out when we're going to go on offense and how we're going to provide a deterrent to future attacks," said Schiff.
White House spokesman Josh Earnest, during the Group of Seven summit in Germany, said the investigation into the OPM hacking by the Federal Bureau of Investigation continues.
"The identities of the individuals and the motives of those who carried out this intrusion are still the subject of this ongoing investigation. So, I don't want to say anything that would get ahead that ongoing investigation," said Earnest.
China analyst Scott Kennedy of the Washington-based Centers for Strategic and International Studies said he is suspicious of Chinese involvement given their recent statements do not include a clear denial. Kennedy describes the bilateral relationship as complex, but cautions that distrust is on the rise.
"We can address day-to-day issues trade, commercial issues, some types of security issues, even Iran, but on the sensitive issues, basically both sides seem to be dug in and Xi Jinping and the leadership in China, I think, is testing the Obama Administration given that's in its last year and a half. They're trying to push to see how much they can get without getting significant pushback from the United States," said Kennedy.
Kennedy said that if it is determined the attack emanated from China, it is of such magnitude and sophistication that it could not have been the work of rogue Chinese hackers alone.
Cybersecurity analyst Ria Baldevia, a non-resident fellow at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, said the latest hacking incident is not only a serious national security issue, and that the stealing of millions of people's identities has made them vulnerable to identity theft.
The United States and China are scheduled to hold their latest round of strategic and economic dialogue in two weeks in Washington.
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· · · ·
The Russia-Ukraine crisis could last decades, the former secretary general of NATO has warned, telling CNBC that the West should consider arming the Ukrainians in a fight that is "part of a bigger Russian master plan."
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who led the international military alliance of NATO between 2009 and 2014, said that Russia continued to destabilize Ukraine, with "tens of thousands" of troops amassed along the Russian-Ukrainian border and "actively operating" within the country.
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former secretary general of NATO.
"We are all hoping to see a peaceful political solution to this crisis because basically there is no military solution," Rasmussen told CNBC on Monday.
"The problem is that the Russians seem to think there is a military solution, so they continue to destabilize the situation in Ukraine and my point is, if this continues, I think the time has come to consider the delivery of defensive weapons to the Ukrainians so that they can defend themselves, at least."
Read MoreNATO: CNBC explains
During Rasmussen's tenure at NATO, relations between the West and Moscow dramatically deteriorated after Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed its historically disputed Crimea region in March 2014.
Fighting in Ukraine continues between government forces and pro-Russian separatists, who are reported to be sponsored by Moscow.
"In that situation we have more or less an obligation to help the Ukrainians defend themselves," Rasmussen told CNBC.
Gleb Garanich | Reuters
Ukrainian servicemen leave an area near Debaltseve, Ukraine, Feb. 18, 2015.
On Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama said that the G-7 group of major countries was willing to continue or even extend sanctions against Moscow, despite concerns from some European nations about the risk of retaliation.
Rasmussen was pessimistic about the conflict dying down, saying Russia was deliberating destabilizing its neighbors—not just Ukraine—with the aim of resurrecting Moscow's once-expansive sphere of influence.
He highlighted Russia's role in Transnistria, the breakaway state that is formally part of Moldova, as well as Georgia's separatist states of Abkhazia and Ossetia.
"This is not just about Crimea; it is not just about Ukraine; it is part of a bigger Russian master plan to re-establish a sphere of Russian influence in the near neighborhood," said Rasmussen.
"To that end, the Russians want to keep the neighbors weak and prevent them from seeking integration with the European Union and NATO, and that is why Russia is interested in having these simmering or frozen conflicts in the near neighborhood."
Rasmussen spoke to CNBC from the annual Goldman Sachs global macro conference in London. Prior to joining NATO he was prime minister of his home country, Denmark. He now runs his own geopolitical consultancy, Rasmussen Global.
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· · · ·
Below is a calendar of Congressional hearings on national security matters for this week.
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
10:30am – Senate Appropriations – Defense Subcommittee – Markup: Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2016 (here)
2:30pm – Senate Foreign Relations – Markup: Department of State Operations Authorization and Embassy Security Act Fiscal Year 2016 & Syrian War Crimes Accountability Act of 2015 (here)
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
10:00am – House Foreign Affairs – Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa – Iran’s Enduring Ballistic Missile Threat (here)
10:00am – House Homeland Security – Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness, Response, and Communications – Defense Support of Civil Authorities: A Vital Resource in the Nation’s Homeland Security Missions (here)
10:30am – Senate Appropriations – Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee – Markup: Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2016 (here)
2:00pm – Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe – Wanted: Foreign Fighters – The Escalating Threat of ISIL in Central Asia (here)
Thursday, June 11, 2015
10:30am – Senate Appropriations – Markup: Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2016 & Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2016 (here)
10:30am – Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs – Blowing the Whistle on Retaliation: Accounts of Current and Former Federal Agency Whistleblowers (here)
John McHugh, secretary of the U.S. Army, will step down by November, the Defense Department said Monday, adding to a growing list of senior military personnel who are departing the Pentagon during President Obama’s final period in office.
McHugh, a former Republican congressman, has been the Army’s top civilian since 2009. He expressed a wish to leave his post several weeks ago, the Pentagon said in a statement, and has told the president that he would step down by Nov. 1. The Pentagon did not say why McHugh was leaving, and McHugh’s office declined to elaborate.
The news of McHugh’s departure comes as Army Chief of Staff Raymond T. Odierno, a former commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, also prepares to step down. Obama has selected Gen. Mark A. Mille, who heads U.S. Army Forces Command, to replace Odierno.
While McHugh’s departure after six years in the job may not be a surprise, it intensifies the pace of turnover at the most senior levels of the military. In February, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter became Obama’s fourth secretary of defense, while Army Gen. Martin Dempsey will step down as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff this fall.
McHugh began his career in New York politics, and later served nine terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, where he exercised influence over the Pentagon as ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee.
As Army secretary, he managed the largest military service as soldiers streamed home from the war in Iraq and as they flowed into Afghanistan to fight in the surge there. He has been forced to grapple with deep cuts to defense spending and plans to shrink the size of the Army. The active component of the service is expected to shrink from about 540,000 soldiers in 2014 to 490,000 by the end of 2017.
McHugh “has helped lead the Army through a period of challenge and change,” Carter said.
Missy Ryan writes about the Pentagon, military issues, and national security for The Washington Post.
Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint.
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President Obama speaks during a news conference at the conclusion of the G-7 summit at Schloss Elmau, near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, southern Germany, on June 8, 2015.(Photo: AP)
GARMISCH-PARTENKIRCHEN, Germany — In the wake of a massive hack of federal employee records, President Obama said Monday that the government has been aware that its computer systems are vulnerable.
Obama said the latest breach of government personnel records was discovered while old computer systems were being upgraded.
The U.S. government has said it believes China is behind the hacking, an allegation that Beijing denied.
Speaking at a news conference at the conclusion of the Group of Seven summit of world leaders, Obama also warned that the hacking problem isn't going away. He said various governments and individuals are "throwing everything they've got" at breaking into U.S. computer systems, so the U.S. must be more attentive to cybersecurity.
Asked about the pending Supreme Court ruling on a challenge to the Affordable Care Act — his landmark health insurance plan often called Obamacare — the president said he did not see a reason for it to end up in court.
"It's working," Obama said, noting that 16 million people who did not have health insurance now do.
The Supreme Court will rule by the end of June on whether Congress authorized federal subsidy payments regardless of where people live, or only for those in states that created insurance marketplaces.
On separate court challenges to his immigration plan that would prevent millions of undocumented workers from being deported, Obama said his administration was being as aggressive as it could be, legally. "Obviously I'm frustrated," the president said.
Asked about FIFA soccer corruption scandal, Obama said he was not prepared to comment in detail about the ongoing Justice Department investigation into world soccer's governing body. But based on conversations he had with leaders and officials in Europe, Obama did say it was clear the sport needed accountability and transparency.
"Football, or soccer, depending on what side of the Atlantic you live on, is a game, but it's also a big business," Obama said.
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WASHINGTON—
President Barack Obama says the United States is going to have to be much more aggressive when it comes to cybersecurity, but he refused to say who he believes is behind the massive hacking of U.S. government computers revealed last week.
Obama was questioned about the data breach at a news conference Monday at the end of the G7 summit in Germany.
On Sunday, the chairman of the House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee, Congressman Michael McCaul, said “threat indicators” point to China being responsible for the hacking of U.S. government computers revealed last week.
McCaul, appearing on U.S. television Sunday, said the hacking of computer systems at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) involving the records of up to four million current and former federal employees is the most significant breach of federal networks in U.S. history.
"We look at the threat indicators. Who has the motive and intent to steal this data? This is a huge data-mining project and it targets political appointees in the federal government and federal employees, four million of them. In my judgment, this was an attack by China against the United States government. It quantifies to espionage," said McCaul.
McCaul said the source of the attack, discovered in April and made public last Thursday, has not yet been confirmed, but the way it was carried out suggests to him the Chinese government was involved.
"It was not done to steal credit card information and that kind of theft. It was done to get personal information on political appointees in the federal government and federal employees to exploit them so that later, down the road, they can use that for espionage to either recruit spies or compromise individuals in the federal government," he said.
Referring to the breach earlier this year of tens of millions of personal files at the Anthem health insurance company, McCaul said the attack on OPM came from the same source in China.
China has called the accusation irresponsible and unscientific. An editorial published Monday in the state-controlled Global Times daily newspaper characterized the hacker issue as a "stick with which the United States readily beats China," but one that the U.S. "is never able to provide concrete evidence."
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman has said such attacks are generally anonymous and their origins are hard to trace.
Appearing on a separate program Sunday, Congressman Adam Schiff, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said there are only two possibilities regarding such a sophisticated attack.
"Either a state actor or a group of very sophisticated private hackers who often work in concert with the state and the motivation is either going to be fraud in terms of ripping off peoples’ identity or, if it’s a state-sponsored attack, it will be personal information that can be exploited to identify people who might be working in the intelligence community, and the real challenge, I think, is that in this age of asymmetric cyber-warfare those on the offense have all the advantage. It’s very expensive to defend. You just need one open door and you’re vulnerable, and you can often attack with anonymity and be free of repercussions. And, I think one of the big things we have to do, in addition to our defense, is figure out when we’re going to go on offense and how we’re going to provide a deterrent to future attacks," said Schiff.
White House spokesman Josh Earnest, during the Group of Seven summit in Germany, said the investigation into the OPM hacking by the Federal Bureau of Investigation continues.
"The identities of the individuals and the motives of those who carried out this intrusion are still the subject of this ongoing investigation. So, I don’t want to say anything that would get ahead that ongoing investigation," said Earnest.
China analyst Scott Kennedy of the Washington-based Centers for Strategic and International Studies said he is suspicious of Chinese involvement given their recent statements do not include a clear denial. Kennedy describes the bilateral relationship as complex, but cautions that distrust is on the rise.
"We can address day-to-day issues trade, commercial issues, some types of security issues, even Iran, but on the sensitive issues, basically both sides seem to be dug in and Xi Jinping and the leadership in China, I think, is testing the Obama Administration given that’s in its last year and a half. They’re trying to push to see how much they can get without getting significant pushback from the United States," said Kennedy.
Kennedy said that if it is determined the attack emanated from China, it is of such magnitude and sophistication that it could not have been the work of rogue Chinese hackers alone.
Cybersecurity analyst Ria Baldevia, a non-resident fellow at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, said the latest hacking incident is not only a serious national security issue, and that the stealing of millions of people’s identities has made them vulnerable to identity theft.
The United States and China are scheduled to hold their latest round of strategic and economic dialogue in two weeks in Washington.
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As the leaders of the Group of Seven countries meet in Germany this week, there are rising calls to end the diplomatic impasse with Russia over Ukraine. But wishful thinking is the worst basis for policy making.
That was true in 1967, when Pierre Harmel, Belgium’s foreign minister at the time, issued a report advocating the type of diplomatic engagement with the Soviet Union that would eventually become détente. The report came at a difficult time for the Western alliance. France had withdrawn from NATO’s military command structure, the U.S. wanted to cut its presence in Europe and voters across the West wanted less money spent on defense. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union was playing a skillful game of divide and conquer, offering seductive bilateral deals. Sound familiar?
But there are some major differences with Europe’s situation today. The ideological divide during the Cold War was real. Today it’s just a Kremlin construct, invented by modern Russia to cover failures of reform. It’s not a serious alternative to Western liberal democracy.
Russia is integrated into the world, politically and economically, in a way that the Soviet Union never was. It has been offered numerous ways by NATO and the European Union to cooperate—it has only chosen in many cases, such as with the EU Neighborhood Policy, to decline. Before the aggression against Ukraine, Moscow sat together in the NATO Russian Council and within the G-8, among many other diplomatic forums.
A more important difference is that the Soviet Union was a status-quo power, seeking to preserve the Potsdam Agreement of 1945 that helped establish Europe’s postwar order. Today’s Russia, on the other hand, is a revisionist power. It regards the 1991 settlement that reunified Germany as a defeat and continues to try and overturn it.
It’s even on a mission to rewrite history, too: A new documentary on Russian state television has portrayed both the crushing of the 1956 Hungarian uprising and the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia as reasonable responses to Western aggression. President Vladimir Putin recently even defended the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of nonaggression signed by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.
Some voices in Europe are now looking to Harmel’s report for modern-day lessons. But let’s draw the right lessons. Harmel’s main point on re-engagement was that the “relaxation of tensions was not the final goal.” The priority, he said, was to strengthen the Western alliance.
The same logic should guide us today. NATO’s capabilities should be based on sober threat analyses, not illusions. Anything that the Kremlin perceives as weakness will encourage it to press ahead.We saw this in 1968, when just a year after re-engagement the Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia. And we see this now, when after a hasty “reset” following the 2008 war in Georgia the Kremlin last year started another war in Ukraine.
If we are going to re-engage Russia, it should be based on our values and commitments, not wishful thinking. NATO and the EU should be prepared for a long, drawn-out process and not give in just for the sake of a resolution. Contact, relations and engagement with Russia are still possible. Vital, even—the Russian people are not our enemies. Diplomatic dialogue with Russia can be maintained at NATO’s 50-member Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, which includes other eastern partners such as Ukraine.
Concessions or retreats, whether at our own expense or negotiated over the heads of our allies, have no place. This means we shouldn’t backtrack on support for Ukraine and our other eastern partners. We should help build their defence capabilities and their resilience to Russia’s “hybrid” attacks.
More broadly, we shouldn’t falter on NATO’s open-door policy and our ultimate goal of a Europe whole, free and at peace. We do not and will not accept the Kremlin’s “new normal,” based on out-dated thinking about spheres of influence and a zero-sum mentality.
We shouldn’t be too worried about disappointing Russia. Instead we should worry about the greater danger of disappointing our own people. We in the frontline states of Europe need to be reassured of NATO’s readiness, adaptability and deterrence. Let’s learn the lessons from our past.
Mr. Linkevičius is Lithuania’s minister of foreign affairs.
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Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 106
June 8, 2015 04:24 PM Age: 14 min
Category: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Home Page, Featured, Military/Security, Foreign Policy, Domestic/Social, Europe, Ukraine, Russia
It was hardly surprising that the fragile ceasefire in eastern Ukraine was broken last week by an exchange of artillery and tank fire after weeks of deployment of Russian troops and heavy weapons in the war zone. What was unexpected, however, was the direction of the Moscow-backed rebel attack on Maryinka to the west of Donetsk and the rebels’ readiness to fall back after meeting stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces (Polit.ru, June 4). It was not possible to hide the fact that the separatists initiated this surge in hostilities, but the war managers in Moscow showed they could terminate the escalation. Therefore, President Vladimir Putin’s statement on continuing the ceasefire, which was released last Saturday, reflected the reality on the battlefield, even if it had been recorded a few days prior (RIA Novosti, June 6). In trying to control the clashes while maintaining a denial of responsibility, Putin seeks to show both resolve and flexibility in order to counter the perceived increase in the threat on Russia’s western flank.
Moscow is quite nervous about the “secret conference” that the United States’ Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter held in Germany in order to discuss the insufficient effectiveness of sanctions and possible further measures in response to probable further moves by Russia (Rbc.ru, June 4). The Kremlin indicated it was concerned about the media reports of US plans to deploy missiles in Europe if multiple Russian violations trigger the breakdown of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (1988) (Kommersant, June 5). Even greater resonance was generated by the report “The Russian Challenge,” produced by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), generally not known for radicalism in its assessments (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 5). The Chatham House report’s sober conclusion that the West must prepare for a long-term confrontation with a weakening but dangerous Russia was condemned by the State Duma. Russian deputies charged that the report served to justify the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) purported master plan to subjugate Moscow (Newsru.com, June 4).
Yet, the main focus of Putin’s anxieties is, arguably, the G7 summit on June 7–8, in Schloss Elmau, Germany (Kommersant, June 6). The Russian president’s Crimean gamble was based on the premise that US leadership had slackened and NATO unity had eroded, but the G7 leaders have established—without promising miracles or cracking down on protesters—that the Western pillar of world order remains solid (Gazeta.ru, June 4). The spasm of hostilities in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas received due attention but did not distract the summit participants from discussing such matters—entirely irrelevant from Putin’s point of view—as empowering women (Rbc.ru, June 5). Nobody in this time-tested institution has any interest in entrenching the West’s confrontation with Russia. But with ever-growing acknowledgement of the pre-determined failure of the Minsk agreements, the G7 increasingly understands that high-precision sanctions on Russia will need to be combined with military containment.
Moscow has good reasons to worry about these sanctions, and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev has already issued a warning about a “symmetric response” to any new punitive measures from the European Union (Forbes.ru, June 2). Russian consumers will be harmed by such “counter-sanctions” much more than European businesses. But the plain fact is that Russian political ambitions undercut every professional effort to steer the economy through the crisis, which refuses to follow orders from the Kremlin and keeps breaking through false bottoms (Rbc.ru, June 3). Some had hoped that the last meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would decide to prop up the oil price, allowing Russia—which has desperately expanded domestic production—to continue to benefit from free riding (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 3). Predictably, no good news on OPEC quotas came from Vienna last week, so the ruble has resumed its inevitable downward slide (Gazeta.ru, June 5). This economic feebleness reduces Putin’s power politics to high-risk military bluffs and extra-high-volume propaganda campaigns, which can paper over Russians’ falling incomes for only so long.
Another topic on the G7 agenda, emphasized particularly by the re-energized British Prime Minister David Cameron, is the global struggle against corruption. And Russia has every reason to worry about being on the receiving end of this “zero tolerance” policy. These worries were accentuated in the last couple of weeks by the devastating scandal in the Federation of Association Football (FIFA), which Russian mainstream media tends to present as a plot aimed at denying Russia the privilege of hosting the 2018 World Cup (Slon.ru, June 3). Many government officials know, however, that the investigation will likely uncover plenty of dirty deals and financial flows leading directly to the Kremlin (Forbes.ru, June 3). This helps the EU to erect new barriers against the export of Russian corruption to Europe. For instance, Deutsche Bank has expanded its internal investigation of alleged Russian money laundering to the impressive sum of $6 billion (Newsru.com, June 5). A new set of US and EU sanctions specifically targeting the flows of Russian “dirty money” would reinforce the brave effort of anti-corruption blogger and opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who keeps uncovering spectacular cases of fraud and embezzlement—for example the failed project to create an international financial center in Moscow (Navalny.com, June 4).
The swiftly terminated rebel attack on Maryinka was probably meant to be Putin’s “warning shot” to the Western leaders. But he only succeeded in reminding them about the near certainty (rather than risk) of a summer spasm in the “hybrid war.” While the Russian battalions concentrated in the war zone appear far from eager to go into battle, the assorted war-bands of local thugs and Russian “volunteers” of invariably aggressive persuasions have nothing else to do but to resume fighting. It seems Putin’s support base is eager to cheer for new victories but absolutely not ready to keep waiting for them while experiencing Russian-style austerity, even if it is explained away as caused by the economic “aggression” of the hostile West. Every picture from the top-level schmoozing in the Bavarian Alps presumably reminds Putin that there is no way back for him, and every opinion poll tells him that the time for the next strike is now, before his loyal subjects tire of the chronic deadlock. There is really no point in waiting for the European Council meeting in late June, where the sanctions are certain to be prolonged; but it is quite tempting for Moscow to try to reshape its agenda.
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First flight test of next-gen Standard Missile-3 complete
POINT MUGU NAVAL STATION, Calif., June 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. Navy and Missile Defense Agency (MDA) conducted the first flight test of the Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) Standard Missile-3 Block IIA. The interceptor's bigger rocket motors and more capable kill vehicle will engage threats sooner and protect larger regions from short- to intermediate-range ballistic missile threats.
The final assembly of the Raytheon-made Standard Missile-3 Block IIA used during the flight test was delivered to the Missile Defense Agency from the company's Redstone Missile Integration Facility in Huntsville, Ala. Learn more about this defensive weapon here: <a href="http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/sm-3/" rel="nofollow">http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/sm-3/</a>
'The SM-3 Block IIA program reflects the MDA's commitment to maturing this capability for the defense of our nation, deployed forces, and our allies abroad,' said Dr. Taylor W. Lawrence, Raytheon Missile Systems president. 'The success of this test keeps the program on track for a 2018 deployment at sea and ashore.'
The mission, Control Test Vehicle-01, evaluated the SM-3 Block IIA's nosecone performance, steering control section function, booster separation, and second and third stage rocket motor separation.
During the test, a SM-3 Block IIA was launched from a MK 41 launcher located at the U.S. Navy's Point Mugu Sea Range on Saint Nicolas Island in California. A target intercept was not included in the testing scenario.
About the Standard Missile-3
SM-3s destroy incoming ballistic missile threats in space using nothing more than sheer impact equivalent to a 10-ton truck traveling at 600 mph.
- More than 200 SM-3s have been delivered to date.
- SM-3 Block IB is deployed at sea and will be deployed ashore in 2015 in Romania.
- SM-3 Block IIA is on track for deployment at sea and ashore in 2018.
- SM-3 Block IB is deployed at sea and will be deployed ashore in 2015 in Romania.
- SM-3 Block IIA is on track for deployment at sea and ashore in 2018.
About Raytheon
Raytheon Company, with 2014 sales of $23 billion and 61,000 employees worldwide, is a technology and innovation leader specializing in defense, civil government and cybersecurity markets throughout the world. With a history of innovation spanning 93 years, Raytheon provides state-of-the-art electronics, mission systems integration and other capabilities in the areas of sensing; effects; and command, control, communications and intelligence systems, as well as cybersecurity and a broad range of mission support services. Raytheon is headquartered in Waltham, Mass. For more about Raytheon, visit us at <a href="http://www.raytheon.com" rel="nofollow">www.raytheon.com</a> and follow us on Twitter @Raytheon.
Raytheon Company, with 2014 sales of $23 billion and 61,000 employees worldwide, is a technology and innovation leader specializing in defense, civil government and cybersecurity markets throughout the world. With a history of innovation spanning 93 years, Raytheon provides state-of-the-art electronics, mission systems integration and other capabilities in the areas of sensing; effects; and command, control, communications and intelligence systems, as well as cybersecurity and a broad range of mission support services. Raytheon is headquartered in Waltham, Mass. For more about Raytheon, visit us at <a href="http://www.raytheon.com" rel="nofollow">www.raytheon.com</a> and follow us on Twitter @Raytheon.
Media Contacts
Heather Uberuaga
+1.520.891.8421
<a href="mailto:rmspr@raytheon.com">rmspr@raytheon.com</a>
Heather Uberuaga
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IMMEDIATE RELEASE | June 08, 2015 |
Army Secretary McHugh to Step Down
Secretary McHugh has been in discussions both with the secretary of defense and the deputy secretary of defense, and expressed his desire several weeks ago to depart as secretary of the Army. Mr. McHugh has since notified the president that he plans to leave office no later than Nov. 1, 2015, which he hopes will afford ample opportunity for a smooth transition. Mr. McHugh expressed his gratitude to the president and his appreciation to the secretary of defense and, most importantly, the men and women of the United States Army for the tremendous honor to serve as Secretary for these many years.
'Secretary McHugh has been a tremendous public servant for decades, and he has helped lead the Army through a period of challenge and change,' said Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. 'There will be much time in the coming months to appropriately celebrate his many accomplishments, but for now I will just say that every soldier is better off because of his hard work and vision, and so is the country.'
<a href="http://www.defense.gov/releases/release.aspx?releaseid=17324" rel="nofollow">http://www.defense.gov/releases/release.aspx?releaseid=17324</a>
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The US Army has said that it acted swiftly on Monday 8 June to take down its website after Syrian hackers posted messages posted messages on the site.
The move came as President Barack Obama pledged to boost US cyber defences in the wake of a series of attacks which officials said emanated from China. Beijing denies any involvement.
The US Army said in a statement that the Syrian Electronic Army hackers had hit the army.mil service provider's content.
"After this came to our attention, the Army took appropriate preventive measures to ensure there was no breach of Army data by taking down the website temporarily," said Army Brigadier General Malcolm Frost, the chief of Army public affairs.
The Syrian Electronic Army said it left messages on the website, including: "Your commanders admit they are training the people they have sent you to die fighting."
Meanwhile, President Obama, who didn't name China, said at a news conference at the G7 summit in Bavaria, Germany: "We have to be as nimble, as aggressive and as well-resourced as those who are trying to break into these systems."
US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the mission of the hackers who stole a huge amount of federal data, appears to have been to get personal information for recruiting spies and ultimately to seek access to weapons plans and industrial secrets.
US investigators looking into the computer break-in said they had uncovered "markings," or digital signatures, left by the hackers that indicate it was likely an official Chinese government operation, the officials told Reuters.
US authorities have also begun discussions on whether to go public once they make a final assessment of responsibility, a source familiar with the investigation said.
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Journalists and policemen based in and around Garmisch-Partenkirchen's quaint timber-frame guesthouses and hotels woke on Sunday morning to the sound of helicopters hovering above the usually tranquil Alpine skiing resort nestled among snowcapped mountains in southern Germany: They were shuttling camera teams and journalists to the Schloss Elmau, the luxury castle where leaders of the Group of Seven - the United States, UK, Canada, Italy, France, Japan and Germany - were set to arrive for their annual summit.
This year, G7 leaders planned to discuss a wide range of topics behind closed doors, including global trade, ensuring more sustainable supply chains, new Millennium Development Goals, international terrorism, and the civil wars and standoffs in the Middle East, Ukraine and the South China Sea. Other planned topics include climate change, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the EU and US, commonly known as TTIP, and lessons learned from the most recent Ebola outbreak, as well as how to respond to other tropical diseases.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Barack Obama, the first foreign leader to arrive, kicked off the day by joining locals dressed in dirndl and lederhosen for a Bavarian show of beer, pretzels and oompah music in the nearby village of Krün. But before the camera teams zoomed in on Obama, Merkel and Bavarian dignitaries as they tore into the local delicacies, both leaders issued stark warnings to Russia over what the US president called Vladimir Putin's "aggression" in Ukraine.
At a press conference, EU Council President Donald Tusk, who is also attending the summit, said he wanted to "reconfirm G7 unity on sanctions policy." Russia, he said, would stay out of the G7 "community of values" as long as it "behaves aggressively with Ukraine and other countries."
Russia joined the G7 nations in 1998, creating the Group of Eight, which became the Group of Seven again last year after the other leaders kicked the country out over its interference in Ukraine. Following the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the United States and EU also imposed sanctions on Russian individuals and businesses.
Greece high on the agenda
In a bilateral meeting, Obama and Merkel also discussed financially ailing Greece. According to a White House spokesman quoted by news agencies, the two leaders agreed that the country must reform and return to sustainable long-term growth. Greece's government has been locked in negotiations with its creditors to reach a last-minute deadline before the country has to repay a 300 million-euro ($333.5 million) loan to the International Monetary Fund by the end of the month.
The seven leaders had much more on their agenda than Greece and Russia, however, as the cameras left the room ahead of the first of the six off-the-record meetings that make up the summit. This year, Germany is also pushing for a pledge to create the Vision Zero Fund, which would guarantee sustainable supply chains by financing preventative measures to guarantee safety standards, such as fire safety measures.
Jörn Kalinski, the director of advocacy and campaigns for Oxfam in Germany, told DW that the Vision Zero Fund "would be a very big and important step forward. We should really end this perverse situation where we have our economic prosperity based on human rights violations and ecological sins committed in the developing world."
However, Kalinski, one of several NGO representatives gathered in the press center, added that he was "a little pessimistic" that the initiative would receive much concrete support from the other G7 countries, which face strong lobbies for multinational companies at home.
Geeta Bandi-Phillips, of World Vision, also said that this G7 summit was not likely "to be a pledging conference" when it came to sustainable development goals. But it was a good place, she said, to start thinking about how global leaders "could make sustainable development a reality for everyone else."
As is usually the case during such meetings, activists expect few concrete binding commitments in the 15-odd page communique set to be released after the summit closes on Monday afternoon.
Protesters fail to breach security parameter
The G7 began in 1975 as the Group of Six, with all the same nations, except Canada. Detractors say the group's annual summits are excessively expensive and lead to too few concrete results. They note that other forums, like the United Nations or even Group of 20 meetings, include poorer countries. The G7's critics say the more-inclusive meetings have proved much better at tackling issues that require a global response, such as climate change or trade policy.
Other dissenters reject the idea of globalization more generally. They include many of the demonstrators who took to the streets on Saturday in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, among them anarchists, Kurdish activists and even a Hare Krishna monk. Police mobilized from across Germany clashed with the protesters several times. However, the large-scale violence many had feared did not materialize.
On Sunday, several hundred protesters hiked for hours along a steep track through the mountains to reach the security perimeter around Schloss Elmau before being turned back by police. Frank Duden, an organizer of the demonstration, told DW's Sabrina Pabst, who accompanied the protesters on their march, that he was there because G7 leaders only made "decisions on behalf of companies and very rich people." Rather than spending money on hosting an expensive summit, Duden said, the funds should be used "to build a better world in Africa, Asia or South America."
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ELMAU, Germany (AP) — German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Sunday she expects a meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized democracies to produce a "united signal" that sanctions against Russia can only be softened if a February peace accord for Ukraine is fully implemented.
Even before the issue was brought to the table, most of the leaders had already expressed their support for the idea.
This year's meeting of the leading industrialized democracies was the second in a row without Russia, which was ejected from what was the G-8 last year over its actions in Ukraine. Even with President Vladimir Putin absent, Russia was prominent in the leaders' minds as they gathered in the Bavarian Alps.
Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed during a pre-summit bilateral meeting that the duration of sanctions imposed upon Moscow should be "clearly linked to Russia's full implementation of the Minsk" peace accord agreed in February, the White House said in a statement. Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, another summit participant, were central to drawing up that accord.
Later, Merkel stressed anew in an interview with Germany's public ZDF television that sanctions are not an end in themselves and they "can be dispensed with when the conditions under which they were introduced are no longer there and the problems are resolved."
She said that "we have a chance if everyone makes an effort — that is to some extent in Russia's hands and of course in Ukraine's."
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Kiev before heading to the summit in Germany and pledged to make sure that "solidarity with Ukraine" was also on the agenda for the next G-7, which is being held in Japan, his spokesman Yasuhisa Kawamura told a small group of reporters.
This year, he said, Japan's main goal is that all sides abide by the Minsk agreement.
"That is our goal and for that ... all G-7 leaders should show a common approach," Kawamura said.
Heading into the talks, British Prime Minister David Cameron said he would push for Europe to stand firm with sanctions against Russia even though some countries — especially cash-strapped Greece — were suffering economically because of declining investment and tourists from Russia.
"It has an impact on all countries in terms of putting sanctions on another country," Cameron said. "Britain hasn't let our pre-eminence in financial services get in the way of taking a robust response to Russian-backed aggression and I don't think other countries should either."
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who also visited Kiev before heading to Bavaria, has been "strongly advocating" for the G-7 leaders and other allies to maintain the pressure and sanctions on Russia, his spokesman Stephen Lecce said.
He added that Harper "stands ready to impose further measures against the Putin regime if Moscow refuses to halt its aggressive behavior."
European Union President Donald Tusk told reporters that since the Ukraine peace deal agreed in Minsk has not been fully implemented, the only question for the 28-nation EU is whether to make the sanctions against Russia even tougher.
"If anyone wants to start a debate about changing the sanctions regime, the discussion could only be about strengthening them," said Tusk, a former Polish prime minister. The EU participates in the summits of the G-7 — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S.
After Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine last year, the other world powers kicked the country out of the G-8 in an effort to isolate Putin and to signal the West's united opposition to his actions.
The rift has deepened amid subsequent fighting in eastern Ukraine and several rounds of sanctions against Russia.
The U.S. and the European Union have imposed financial restrictions on Russian companies and individuals to pressure Russia into stopping its support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. They and NATO say Russian troops and military equipment have been used on Ukrainian territory — something Russia denies.
Tusk said Russia's possible return to the G-8 would depend on a turn-around in Moscow's foreign policy.
"This is a community of values. And this is why Russia is not among us here today and will not be invited as long as it behaves aggressively toward Ukraine and other countries," he said.
Protesters, meanwhile, blocked roads as the G-7 leaders arrived in the Bavarian Alps to begin their two-day summit. Journalists were flown by helicopter to the venue to avoid delays on the roads due to the protesters.
Several hundred demonstrators hiked early Sunday from the resort of Garmisch-Partenkirchen to get near the security perimeter around the Schloss Elmau hotel, the secluded summit venue 8 kilometers (5 miles) away.
Some 22,000 police from around Germany were brought in to keep the protesters away from the hotel.
At the security fence, about 200 protesters shouted chants like "Freedom and peace, no more G-7!" and waved signs with slogans like "Politics for people, not markets." On the other side, about 100 police officers with dogs were patrolling the fence to keep the demonstrators out.
Two protesters broke away from the main group at the security fence in an attempt to sneak through the woods and breach the barrier, but they were quickly chased down and turned back by about a dozen police.
The annual summit has drawn repeated protests by those who believe the leaders' decisions favor banks and business interests over those of ordinary people. A planned trans-Atlantic free trade agreement is a major concern.
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Rising reported from Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Frank Jordans in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Geir Moulson in Berlin, Rob Gillies in Toronto and Jill Lawless in London contributed to this story.
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Recently making the news was the successful attempt by President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, at the G-7 summit in Germany, to get all seven industrialized nations to continue economic sanctions on Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea and military meddling in eastern Ukraine, as did the recent U.S.-led allied boycott of Russia's celebration of the seventieth anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in May of 1945. Yet the seventy-first anniversary of the allied D-Day landings in Normandy in June of 1944 went off as planned.
Russia was iniquitous to have violated international law and snatched Ukraine and is also wrong to be militarily stirring up an insurgency in eastern Ukraine. However, the Western media, in their usual self-righteous manner, avoid any discussion of the Russian perspective or motives for Russia's actions. Although despite my first name, I have no Russian blood and do not favor Vladimir Putin's autocracy; however I think some exploration of the Russian side of things is in order.
Ukraine has always been important for the Soviet Union and Russia because of its industry, agriculture, culture, and large Russian-speaking population. In February 2014, the Russia-friendly, democratically elected government of Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown by unelected street protestors and replaced by a Ukrainian government actively hostile to Russia. Russians believe that such street protests were instigated by the CIA to get a more Western-friendly government--a conspiracy theory not out of the realm of possibility, given the CIA's track record of overthrowing democratically elected governments and replacing them with more U.S.-friendly ones.
Salvaging what they could from an important nation in their sphere of influence (those "so yesterday" great power spheres of influence do still exist, as the U.S.-enforced Monroe Doctrine in the entire Western Hemisphere attests), the Russians took advantage of the chaos in Ukraine to snatch Crimea, a very Russophilic region transferred from Russia to Ukraine by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev only in 1954. That strategic region housed bases from which the Russian Black Sea fleet already operated. In addition, Russia continues to destabilize the eastern, more Russophilic, part of Ukraine to keep the country out of the ever-expanding NATO alliance, which the Russians regard as hostile and right on its borders.
After the Cold War ended and the Warsaw Pact alliance had collapsed, to get then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to allow Germany to re-unify in 1990, George H.W. Bush agreed formally that NATO would not expand into what had been East Germany. Yet subsequently, the Western alliance's repeated expansion eastward right up to Russia's borders violated the spirit of that agreement. More recently, George W. Bush promised that Ukraine and Georgia, a country which in 2008 started a war with Russia, would be admitted to NATO. Yet the United States and its NATO client states haven't the faintest idea why Russia might be nervous about these developments, because they assure themselves that they are benevolent. Really?
In 1999, the U.S.-led NATO alliance violated international law and went to war with Serbia, a Russian ally in the Balkans, and dismembered the country -- yanking out the province of Kosovo and making it a new country. In 2001, the U.S.-led alliance invaded Afghanistan, a country outside the European continent that NATO is supposed to be protecting. Then there was the U.S.-led coalition of the willing that again violated international law, invaded Iraq, and overthrew the dictator Saddam Hussein. In 2011, Russia agreed to a United Nations Security Council Resolution for a no-fly zone in Libya to protect opponents of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, a former Russian ally. Instead, U.S.-led NATO, acting again outside of Europe, used the resolution authorizing limited military action to overthrow Gaddafi. The Russians felt swindled.
More generally, after the Cold War ended, instead of including the loser, Russia, in the larger Europe realm -- as the Congress of Vienna did with France in 1815 after it lost the Napoleonic Wars, leading to a century with no European-wide war -- the United States followed the post-World War I model of punishing Germany, which led to World War II, by not only excluding Russia but penalizing it because NATO was expanded to its borders. The West's rubbing Russia's nose its Cold War defeat has been a major factor in the rise and success of the nationalist autocrat Vladimir Putin.
Given its long history of being invaded by the Vikings, Mongols, Swedes, French, and Nazis, the Russians are determined to have a friendly protective buffer zone in Eastern Europe. The last Nazi invasion during World War II resulted in the most titanic and fierce combat in world history, vast tracts of the Soviet Union being scorched earth, and 27 million dead -- by far more than any other country in World War II. Two out of every three German divisions in that war were sent against Russian forces, and Russia inflicted almost 75 percent of German casualties during the conflict.
Given its long history of being invaded by the Vikings, Mongols, Swedes, French, and Nazis, the Russians are determined to have a friendly protective buffer zone in Eastern Europe. The last Nazi invasion during World War II resulted in the most titanic and fierce combat in world history, vast tracts of the Soviet Union being scorched earth, and 27 million dead -- by far more than any other country in World War II. Two out of every three German divisions in that war were sent against Russian forces, and Russia inflicted almost 75 percent of German casualties during the conflict.
The Russians always felt that D-Day should have come earlier in the war to relieve pressure on the eastern front. They didn't believe the excuse that the vast U.S. industrial juggernaut, in its safe haven from the conflict, could not produce enough small Higgins landing boats to hit the beaches at Normandy until June of 1944. The Germans had been on the run since their loss at the Battle of Stalingrad to the Russians in late 1942 and early 1943. Although you would never know it from U.S. history books, the United States may have defeated Japan, but the Russians had already turned the tide against Nazi Germany long before the Normandy landings. Instead, prior to 1944, the Western allies had wasted time, men, and weapons invading non-strategic regions of the world, such as North Africa and the Italian peninsula, while the Russians won the war in the heart of Europe.
The prior catastrophic invasions of Russia do not excuse the Russian annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine to keep the country out of NATO, but they do make Russian behavior less ominous and more understandable. Russia feels surrounded and vulnerable and thus succumbs easily to nationalist demagogues like Putin.
The prior catastrophic invasions of Russia do not excuse the Russian annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine to keep the country out of NATO, but they do make Russian behavior less ominous and more understandable. Russia feels surrounded and vulnerable and thus succumbs easily to nationalist demagogues like Putin.
However, in the future, perhaps the United States will be more understanding of the relatively weak Russia's need for a geostrategic buffer zone in Eastern Europe as the more powerful China rises in East Asia and the Americans need an ally to balance it there.
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As Moscow prepares for a big show of military might Saturday, its quiet cuts to defense spending are not escaping notice. Beneath all the pomp and ceremony of its Victory Day celebration lies the crunch of an economic crisis -- sparked by Western sanctions, a steep decline in global oil prices and devaluation of the ruble.
So while parades are planned for the 70th anniversary of Russia's victory in World War II -- and ceremonies will include marching soldiers, rolling armaments and air force flyover maneuvers, Russia's message that all is well is increasingly difficult for many to believe. Some analysts say Russia's economy will shrink 4.6 percent in 2015.
In 201o, President Vladimir Putin announced a budget of 20 trillion rubles ($650 billion) to modernize the Russian military. The country's defense spending doubled between 2007 and 2013, largely because of plans to replace 70 percent of aging armaments from the Soviet era.
Contrast this with the quiet jubilation of the U.S, where the Republican-led Congress on May 5 passed an annual defense budget of $3.8 trillion, beginning Oct. 1. Despite political differences, the GOP-led Congress basically met Democratic President Barack Obama's call for a $4 trillion defense budget, Agence France-Presse reported.
This year, Russia planned to replace 30 percent of its military equipment, launch 50 new warships and introduce T-14 Armata tanks. But government statistics reveal that defense budget will have to take a cut of 5 percent in 2015. Adding frustration was the embarassing breakdown of a T-14 Armata tank during Victory Day preparations.
CAST, a defense think tank in Moscow, said that the Russian economy is not generating enough revenue to pay for the 2011-20 defense modernization program. So, the opportunity for renewing the Russian armed forces and its equipment is looking bleak.
At the same time, Russia cannot ignore the military exercises being conducted in its backyard in May by NATO countries. For example, the northern borders of Russia are witnessing convergence of 21,000 Estonian, Latvian and Norwegian troops. Any thought that NATO is still rattled by Russia's annexation of Crimea seems passé as a new rapid-reaction force has given NATO the strength to deal with any contingency in Eastern Europe.
The NATO-led "Operation Hedgehog” has been designed as a ground exercise involving Estonia and others, with 13,500 total troops. NATO’s rising assertiveness will likely draw conspiracy theories from Putin, in which he paints Russia as a victim of U.S. efforts to isolate Russia -- with the aim of forcing regime change.
For feedback/comments, contact the writer at k.kumar@ibtimes.com.au
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KRÜN, Germany — President Obama would have preferred to spend the summit meeting of the leaders of the seven leading industrial nations fully focused on big issues that he hopes will define his legacy, including confronting climate change and expanding global trade.
Instead, crisis diplomacy once again largely overshadowed those issues, as Mr. Obama and his Group of 7 counterparts struggled to confront the threats posed by the Islamic State and the persistent and vexing problem of Russia’s involvement in Ukraine.
The president headed home on Monday with pledges from European leaders to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases. And Mr. Obama said the leaders he met with were united in their efforts to expand free trade.
But the agenda here at a sprawling resort in the shadow of the Bavarian Alps was dominated by security issues.
At a news conference Monday after the close of the summit, Mr. Obama acknowledged a need to accelerate the training of Iraqi military forces to counter the advance of Islamic State militants, and he said that he had asked the Pentagon for a plan to do that.
“We don’t have, yet, a complete strategy, because it requires commitments on the part of Iraqis as well,” Mr. Obama said. “The details are not worked out.”
Mr. Obama said of the militants of the Islamic State, also known as ISIL and ISIS: “They’re nimble and they’re aggressive and they’re opportunistic.”
He acknowledged that the training of Iraqi forces “has not been happening as fast as it needs to.” And he said the United States has “made some progress, but not enough” in stemming the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria.
Mr. Obama said that “thousands” of new fighters were replenishing the ranks of the Islamic State faster than the coalition could remove them from the fight.
“If we can cut off some of that foreign fighter flow, then we are able to isolate and wear out ISIL forces that are already there,” Mr. Obama said. “Because we are taking a lot of them off the battlefield, but if they’re being replenished, then it doesn’t solve the problem over the long term.”
The president also said that Turkey was not doing what was required to monitor its border with Syria and halt the stream of fighters.
Earlier Monday, Mr. Obama met with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq, where he reaffirmed the world powers’ commitment to supporting Iraq in the fight against the Islamic State, which has made major gains in recent weeks.
“Although it is going to take time, and there will be setbacks and lessons learned, we are going to be successful,” Mr. Obama said at the start of his meeting with Mr. Abadi. “ISIL is going to be driven out of Iraq, and ultimately, it is going to be defeated.”
The campaign to defeat the Islamic State has been part of the crowded agenda at the meeting here.Discussions were dominated by the question of how to address Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine.
Mr. Obama has tried to hold together a European sanctions program in the face of increasing pressure from President Vladimir V. Putin. As he departed, Mr. Obama said he expected that European leaders would renew sanctions next month and indicated that those measures could be expanded if Mr. Putin did not relent.
“He’s got to make a decision — does he continue to wreck his nation’s economy and continue Russia’s isolation in pursuit of a wrongheaded desire to recreate the glories of the Soviet empire?” Mr. Obama said at a news conference after the two-day meeting. “Or does he recognize that Russia’s greatness does not depend on violating the territorial integrity” of its neighbors.
The consensus at the end of the summit meeting was a boost for Mr. Obama, who needs European allies to maintain sanctions that keep Russia isolated and on the defensive. But that prospect seems increasingly unlikely, as violence mounts and Moscow appears to have weathered the economic onslaught of American and European sanctions.
The European Union is scheduled to vote later this month on whether to extend the sanctions, and some of the leaders here are facing calls at home to pull back their economic sanctions on Moscow. The language used by the leaders in their joint communiqué was an important marker, indicating that they are willing to maintain sanctions even in the face of domestic criticism.
In his first meeting with Mr. Abadi since Islamic State fighters took control of the Iraqi city of Ramadi, Mr. Obama called the prime minister a reliable partner, and praised his “refreshing honesty” in acknowledging the challenges of confronting the militant group.
The president said he believed the militants’ takeover of the capital of Anbar Province was “a short-term tactical success,” and said his administration was working to determine how to get more weapons into the hands of Iraqi forces who are prepared to fight the Islamic State on a timely basis.
With the Sunni militants racking up gains in Iraq and Syria, G-7 leaders used the meeting as a chance to restate their commitment to the American-led coalition seeking to help stop the group. But Mr. Abadi has said that the assistance is not enough. On Monday, he said he needed help assembling a “global intelligence-sharing effort” to try to thwart the Islamic State’s recruitment efforts, saying the scores of foreign fighters streaming into Iraq and Syria to carry out suicide bombings and other attacks were an increasingly grave threat.
“This will require the effort and the mobilization of the international community,” Mr. Abadi said.
Though much of the gathering focused on the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, it was also an opportunity for Mr. Obama to discuss issues he has made central to his legacy.
On climate change, the G-7 leaders agreed on Monday to work toward a long-term goal of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases between 40 and 70 percent by 2050, signaling that they are united in support of a significant climate change accord in Paris in December.
The leaders endorsed the objective that a United Nations climate change panel said last year must be reached in order to avoid damaging and dangerous increases in the Earth’s temperature, and said that they would work for reductions at the higher end of the target range.
“Urgent and concrete action is needed to address climate change,” the leaders said in their statement, expressing support for adopting an “ambitious, robust” climate deal in Paris later this year.
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