Why Soviet-Style Containment Can't Work Against Modern Russia
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The signs of the times are everywhere. Estonia is erecting a 2.5-meter-high metal mesh fence reinforced with barbed wire along much of its border with Russia—and backing it up with high-tech drones, sensors, radars, and cameras. Neighboring Latvia has announced plans to build fences along its eastern frontier. Poland plans to build new state-of-the art watchtowers on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.
And, of course, Ukraine has floated plans to build a wall along its Russian frontier. A new era of containment, it appears, has begun. Russia’s neighbors, wary of polite little green men appearing to stir up new non-declared hybrid wars, are building walls and becoming vigilant.
And some leading Western commentators are calling for a revival of the spirit of George Kennan’sLong Telegram and Mr. X article, which comprised the philosophical basis for the Western policy of containing an expansionist Soviet Union. Writing in Foreign Affairs in November 2014, Rutgers University-Newark professor Alexander Motyl called on the West to “develop a serious, steady, long-term policy response to Russian expansionism. And that, of course, means containment.”
Likewise, James Goldgeier, dean of the School of International Service at American University, wrote in Slate that “a revived strategy of containment is necessary to counter Russian aggression.” Soviet-era defector Aleksandr Goldfarb made a similar argument in a recent blog post.
So, to paraphrase Kennan, can a newly aggressive Moscow “be contained by the adroit and vigilant application of counterforce at a series of constantly shifting geographical and political points, corresponding to the shifts and maneuvers” of Russian policy?
NATO’s moves at last year’s summit in Wales—setting up military facilities in the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania, rotating troops through countries on the alliance’s eastern flank, and establishing a new rapid-response force that could assist endangered members within two days—certainly seem like steps in that direction. In a speech this week, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Cartersaid Washington “will take all necessary steps to deter Russia’s malign and destabilizing influence, coercion, and aggression."
But 1947 this isn’t. And any serious attempt to contain Vladimir Putin’s Russia—which unlike the Soviet Union is deeply integrated into the global economy—will bear scant resemblance to its Cold War antecedent. This is because unlike the Cold War, when the world was divided into two hermetically sealed systems, today’s conflict between Moscow and the West comes at a time when Russia is very much embedded in the West and has proven adept at exploiting its transparency for nontransparent ends.
And unlike the Soviet Union, today’s Russia isn’t an ideological power seeking global hegemony through military expansion. It is essentially a crime syndicate masquerading as a state. Putin and the made men who make up his inner circle deploy corruption as a tool of statecraft in order to perpetuate their rule, expand their reach, and enrich themselves.
In a 2012 report for Chatham House, James Greene noted how Putin used “the corrupt transnational schemes that flowed seamlessly from Russia into the rest of the former Soviet space—and oozed beyond it” to extend his “shadow influence beyond Russia’s borders and develop a natural, ‘captured’ constituency.”
Toward this end, Moscow has used everything from shady energy deals, to webs of shell companies, to hot money in the City of London, to the financing of extremist political parties in Europe. Its success in doing so raises the economic cost of conflict, reduces resolve to resist Moscow, and gives Russia a ready-made lobby in Western capitals. The Kremlin has effectively weaponized globalization.
Rather than an Iron Curtain with armies facing off across the Fulda Gap, the main fault line of the current conflict is between a Western zone of transparency and a Moscow-dominated sphere of corruption. Any containment policy, therefore, needs first and foremost to limit Russia’s sphere of corruption and extend the Western zone of transparency.
“The front lines of containment are the non-Russian states in the potential path of Russian expansion. Seen in this light, a divided Ukraine occupies the same role in today’s containment strategy as a divided Germany did in yesterday’s,” Motyl wrote in Foreign Affairs. “Ukraine should therefore be the recipient of similar financial, political, and military assistance.”
Georgia and Moldova, likewise, fall into this category. But any true containment of today’s Russia must go beyond this. It also needs to include a rollback of Russia’s ability to exploit and abuse the dynamism and transparency of Western economies.
Part of this is in place with sanctions that deny Russia access to credit from Western banks. Part of it would require shedding light on the web of shadowy shell companies and structures Russia has established in Europe to launder money and stealthily buy influence, as well as bringing more transparency to things like London’s property market.
It would also involve, as Motyl notes, “constraining Russia’s ability to use energy as a weapon.” This reducing Europe’s dependency on Russian natural gas, and strict enforcement of EU antitrust legislation vis-a-vis Gazprom.
And a key weapon in reserve, of course, includes banning Russia from the SWIFT network, which manages secure financial transactions worldwide. The thing about a crime syndicate is that it needs a legitimate economy to feed off of. And denying Putin & Co. this would go a long way toward containing them.
This post appears courtesy of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
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President Barack Obama announced Thursday that the U.S. will maintain the current number of troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016, decreasing to 5,500 by the end of next year, instead of removing most military personnel by the end of his presidency.
The current 9,800 troops in Afghanistan is just a fraction of the U.S. forces stationed around the world. The graphic above shows other countries where the U.S. has a significant military presence.
It’s difficult to give a full picture of the number of troops serving overseas. According to the latest quarterly Department of Defense data on active duty, there are currently 150,560 U.S. military personnel serving in foreign countries. But that number excludes countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and Syria as the U.S. doesn’t break down numbers of military personnel in many countries in the Middle East due to host nation sensitivities.
There are currently about 35,000 troops serving in the 20 nations in the Middle East region that make up the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, according to Commander Elissa Smith, press officer for the Middle East at the Office of the Secretary of Defense. About 3,200 of those U.S. forces are in Iraq.
The figures reported here include personnel serving in the U.S. Army, Navy, Marine Corps. and Air Force.
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ISIS Against Humanity – Dominic Tierney, The Atlantic
[ISIS’s] acts of aggression and barbarism have mobilized a vast enemy coalition, which includes almost every regional power and virtually every great power (and notably the United States, often compared to the Roman Empire in its hegemonic strength). Yet, incredibly, this alliance seems incapable of rolling back the Islamic State. How can a group of insurgents declare war on humanity—and win?
Because no one sees a battle against ISIS as essential for security. Not yet. Therefore no one is willing to lose 10 soldiers to kill 1,000 ISIS warriors. One day, that will probably change, and ISIS won’t look quite so effective. It will probably take an ISIS attack in an American, British, French or Russian city.
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How School Shootings Spread — Malcolm Gladwell, New Yorker
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Guns + intense cable TV coverage + the Internet + the adolescent tendency toward imitation = a phenomenon that makes different kinds of people behave in similar and horrifying ways.
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Трое подозреваемых в совершении теракта в Анкаре 16 октября предстали в пятницу перед судом. Ранее турецкие власти сообщили, что в общей сложности по подозрению к взрывам были задержаны 12 человек. По словам премьер-министра Ахмеда Давотоглу, все они по несколько месяцев провели в Сирии и могут быть связаны либо с группировкой "Исламское государство", либо с курдскими вооруженными формированиями.
Ответственность за теракт никто на себя не взял.
В то же время турецкая оппозиция возлагает либо…
ЧИТАТЬ ДАЛЕЕ: http://ru.euronews.com/2015/10/16/ankara-bombing-ak-party-game-says-suspect
ЧИТАТЬ ДАЛЕЕ: http://ru.euronews.com/2015/10/16/ankara-bombing-ak-party-game-says-suspect
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Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/syria-not-another-afghanistan-for-russia-veterans-say/3010454.html
Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/syria-not-another-afghanistan-for-russia-veterans-say/3010454.html
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Up to 7,000 people from the former Soviet Union are fighting for so-called Islamic State in Syria, says Vladimir Putin.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly resorted to spending cuts to cope with a budget deficit caused by the steep decline of oil prices over the past year.
Bloomberg reported Oct. 8 that the Saudi Finance Ministry has directed government agencies not to embark on any new spending initiatives for the rest of the year. It also froze government hiring and promotions, suspended the purchase of furniture and vehicles and urged revenue collectors to accelerate their operations.
The report cited two sources who requested anonymity because the information had not yet become public. The Finance Ministry told the news service that it had no comment on the report.
The primary reason for the spending cuts is the drop in oil prices since June 2014, from over $110 per barrel to around $50 today; oil accounts for around 90 percent of Saudi revenue. But the kingdom’s finances also have been strained by its involvement in wars in Syria and Yemen.
As a result, Saudi Arabia’s ratio of debt to GDP is in danger of rising to 33 percent in five years, according to a new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report says the Saudi budget has gone from a surplus to a deficit of more than 20 percent of GDP, more than twice as deep as those that beset the United States and Britain in 2008 and 2009, the darkest period of the recent recession.
The IMF says the drop in oil prices also has affected other leading crude exporters, including Kuwait, Russia and Venezuela.
Nations rich in natural resources enjoyed “an exceptional commodity price boom during the 2000s,” the report says, enriching these countries, including Saudi Arabia. But it stresses, “[C]ommodity prices are volatile, unpredictable, and subject to long-lasting shocks. … [C]ommodity exporters will need to adjust to a – possibly protracted – period of lower export and fiscal revenues.”
To manage the deficit, Riyadh had no choice but to rein in spending in the fourth quarter of this year, according to John Sfakianakis, the Middle East director at Ashmore Group, a British investment managing concern. In an interview with Bloomberg from Riyadh, he added, “Saudi Arabia will have to implement spending cuts and efficiencies in order to avoid a runaway fiscal deficit in 2016.”
The spending cuts aren’t Saudi Arabia’s first effort to manage its deficit. Bloomberg quoted other anonymous sources as saying Riyadh had planned to raise at least $24 billion from bond sales by the end of 2015. This was in response to a drop in the kingdom’s foreign assets, which at that time had fallen for the seventh consecutive month to $654.5 billion, its lowest in more than two years.
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This article originally appeared on Oilprice.com
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Throughout the Cold War era, the triangular relationship formed between the United States, China, and Russia was central to forming modern global order. Today’s geopolitical and economic challenges have brought renewed urgency to understanding the evolving motivations of each of these powers in their relationships with one another.
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‘Russia has De Facto Occupied Armenia,’ Yerevan Expert Saysby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, October 14 – Moscow has taken control of Armenia’s economy and restricted its domestic and foreign policy options to the point that one Yerevan commentator says it has “de facto” occupied that south Caucasus country, a possible indication of just what Vladimir Putin may hope to do in other post-Soviet states if he has the chance.
Ruben Mergrabyan, the editor of the Russian Service of the 1in.am internet portal, says that Moscow has moved to establish its control over Armenia by “cleverly playing” on the Karabakh issue and by exploiting Armenia’s dependence on energy supplies from abroad (ru.krymr.mobi/a/27307755.html).
The first, he says, helps the Russian government to silence any objections to what it is doing inside Armenia while the second excludes from his country all foreign firms and especially energy suppliers like neighboring Iran that might allow Yerevan to take a more balanced approach.
Moscow used both the fear of Azerbaijani attacks and of the loss of energy supplies to force Yerevan to join the Eurasian Economic Union when in Mehrabyan’s words, the Russian side “made a proposal that [Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan] could not refuse.”
What has occurred in Armenia is something “unnatural,” the Armenian commentator continues. It is next to Iran, a major exporter of gas, but it imports its gas from Siberia, as the result of agreements that do little more than “legalize [Armenia’s] occupation.” Indeed, under the terms of those accords, Yerevan can’t make a deal with Tehran unless Moscow agrees
Russia’s goal, he says, “is to liquidate any chance for Armenia to establish economic ties with Iran.” Without such ties, Armenia must seek to go through one of its three other neighbors, with one of which (Azerbaijan) it is at war, with a second (Turkey) longstanding hostility, and with the third (Georgia) it has difficulties precisely because of Yerevan’s Russian orientation.
Moscow has then used this situation to take control of Armenia’s domestic energy infrastructure, acquiring ownership in “property for debt” swaps that Yerevan has little choice but to accept, given that its own economy is in a shambles. But Russian control imposes new and heavy costs.
Mehrabyan says that in Armenia “Russian government companies now are involved in activities which resemble the methods of organized criminal groups” bringing with them the illegalities characteristic of their branches in Russia itself, including massive corruption and direct involvement in Armenian politics on behalf of Moscow.
At the same time, Moscow has done everything it can to “undermine the work of the OSCE Minsk Group,” claiming it supports a resolution but in fact providing offensive arms to Azerbaijan and looking the other way when Baku officials make statements suggesting they are about to launch an attack on Armenian-controlled portions of Azerbaijan.
That has allowed Moscow to issue statements suggesting that it alone “can defend Armenia” not only from Azerbaijan but also “from its historic enemy.” All this, Mehrabyan says, has left Armenia “a hostage of the imperial policy of Russia,” one whose dimensions are obscured by massive Kremlin-backed propaganda about a possible war with Azerbaijan.
Now it appears Moscow is about to take the next step in this neo-imperialist game, inserting its own “pocket” candidate for president of Armenia, Ara Abramyan, the chairman of the Union of Armenians of Russia, who recently returned to Yerevan to signal his political plans (nr2.com.ua/News/politics_and_society/Varyagi-Putina-planiruyut-uchastvovat-v-vyborah-v-Armenii-108654.html).
Mehrabyan says that Abramyan’s involvement in Armenian politics not only threatens to turn Armenia into something Russia can trade but also represents “the final degradation of the [Armenian] political system.” Indeed, the commentator says, for Vladimir Putin, Abramyan is “the Armenian Yanukovich.”
One can only hope that that Russian project in Armenia will suffer the same fate the analogous Russian project met in Ukraine. But if Mehrabyan is correct, the chances of that unless there are serious changes in Yerevan’s relations with its own people and the outside world are significantly less.
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The US and Russian militaries will hold another round of talks on Wednesday about air safety in the skies above Syria as the former Cold War foes seek to avoid an accidental clash while they wage uncoordinated air strikes, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.
A Russian fighter jet came into close proximity with a USA air force jet over Syria on October 10 to identify it, “not to scare it”, Russia’s state ITAR-TASS news agency quoted the defence ministry as saying on Wednesday (Oct 14). A USA official confirmed the arrangement, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson of the Russian foreign ministry said that Russian fighter jets destroyed a building in Aleppo from where ISIS militants prepared to carry out suicide attacks and rigged vehicles with explosives. While the Telegraph reports on the soundtrack additions to a recent airstrike video, the action-movie music isn’t just confined to videos with, well, action in them.
Russian airstrikes have had no demonstrated progress yet strengthening the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to Warren.
Both Russian Federation and the United States “have a consensus on the technical aspects” of how parties to the agreement will conduct themselves to assure the safety of their pilots, but they still have a few final details over the wording of the agreement to work out, the official said.
“We will take all necessary steps to deter Russia’s malign and destabilizing influence, coercion and aggression”, Carter said. “The USA has been there for a year and a half, and we have seen not one bullet from them, nor have we seen anyone getting killed by them”.
“Yes, this is Russia; this is the Russian army”.
“Let me tell you [pause] about Russian Federation”, Moussa said in introducing the footage. “Resolving the matter through politics is the only solution that most suits the interests of the Syrian people”, the editorial said.
On the other hand, when the strategy has failed, Putin has not shied from going it alone, launching the air campaign in Syria just two days after his speech at the United Nations calling for a coalition, and giving the USA just an hour’s notice, via diplomats in Baghdad.
Last updated: Friday 16 October 2015
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