President Obama’s Cybersecurity Plan from WSJ and other stories
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President Obama announces today in the Journal a new “Cybersecurity National Action Plan,” backed by his proposal “to increase federal cybersecurity funding by more than a third, to over $19 billion.” The goal is to provide “every American a basic level of online security” and includes a $3 billion fund to “kick-start an overhaul” of federal computer systems. “It is no secret that too often government IT is like an Atari game in an Xbox world. The Social Security Administration uses systems and code from the 1960s,” notes Mr. Obama. The President also says he’s creating a new federal position, Chief Information Security Officer, and adds that his administration is “strengthening our partnerships with the private sector to deter, detect and disrupt threats, including to the nation’s critical infrastructure.”
The Journal’s Bret Stephens takes on Bernie Sanders’ claim that “the business model of Wall Street is fraud.” Mr. Stephens writes, “Some six million people work in financial services in America, according to Commerce Department figures. Take only the securities and investment end of the business, and you’re still talking about 900,000 people, a population that considerably exceeds Vermont’s 626,000. Is Mr. Sanders suggesting that some large proportion of those 900,000 is in on the fraud; that every man among them is a Madoff?” Mr. Stephens adds that the Vermont Senator is “the sort of man whose notion of wisdom is to hold fast to the angry convictions of his adolescence. That may be why he connects with so many younger voters. But it’s also why his moral judgments are so sweeping and juvenile.”
And then there’s Bernie Sanders’ opponent for the Democratic presidential nomination. A Journal editorial notes today that “Hillary Clinton has made gender a major part of her pitch for the White House, and the idea is catching on. A leading candidate to become the next Secretary-General of the United Nations is a Bulgarian woman with a Communist past and a record unfriendly to U.S. interests who is being promoted by Chelsea Clinton’s mother-in-law.”
As for the Republicans, our columnist William McGurn says that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are “counting on Donald Trump’s implosion somewhere along the line, whether it’s because voters tire of his outbursts or realize, as Saturday night’s mini-debate over eminent domain illuminated, that his concept of American greatness may be far closer to crony capitalism than to traditional conservatism.”
The Bank of Japan 8301 -5.76 % is the latest major central bank to announce negative interest rates. “Reducing interest rates is supposed to increase spending and investment, spurring growth. It won’t work,” writes former St. Louis Fed President William Poole. “Negative central-bank interest rates will not create growth any more than the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rates did in the U.S. And it will divert attention from the structural problems that have plagued growth here, as well as in Europe and Japan, and how these problems can be solved.” Mr. Poole recommends instead that Congress instruct Fed economists to study and report on the impact of tax and regulatory burdens on U.S. growth.
“The reason so much campaign spending is routed through Super Pacs is that Congress continues to maintain limits on how much individuals can give to candidates. This means billionaires like Mr. Trump can self-fund their campaigns, but the committees of non-rich candidates can’t raise more than $2,700 from any single donor,” notes a Journal editorial. “Congress could fix the mess byrepealing the 2002 McCain-Feingold law, lifting all donation limits and letting candidates collect the cash they need from any American donors in any amounts.”
The National Association of Scholars notes problems with college reading lists for incoming freshmen: “The emphasis on fostering non-academic values such as community, civic engagement, and social justice leads to selecting books that emphasize collective effort for non-academic pursuits rather than the solitary disengagement that is a fundamental component and delight of the life of the mind. College, this sort of common reading tells the incoming student, is a place to indulge a jolly, earnest desire to change the world for the better—and nothing more.”
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More than any other nation, America is defined by the spirit of innovation, and our dominance in the digital world gives us a competitive advantage in the global economy. However, our advantage is threatened by foreign governments, criminals and lone actors who are targeting our computer networks, stealing trade secrets from American companies and violating the privacy of the American people.
Networks that control critical infrastructure, like power grids and financial systems, are being probed for vulnerabilities. The federal government has been repeatedly targeted by cyber criminals, including the intrusion last year into the Office of Personnel Management in which millions of federal employees’ personal information was stolen. Hackers in China and Russia are going after U.S. defense contractors. North Korea’s cyberattack on Sony SNE 0.78 % in 2014 destroyed data and disabled thousands of computers. With more than 100 million Americans’ personal data compromised in recent years—including credit-card information and medical records—it isn’t surprising that nine out of 10 Americans say they feel like they’ve lost control of their personal information.
These cyberthreats are among the most urgent dangers to America’s economic and national security. That’s why, over the past seven years, we have boosted cybersecurity in government—including integrating and quickly sharing intelligence about cyberthreats—so we can act on threats even faster. We’re sharing more information to help companies defend themselves. We’ve worked to strengthen protections for consumers and students, guard the safety of children online, and uphold privacy and civil liberties. And thanks to bipartisan support in Congress, I signed landmark legislation in December that will help bolster cooperation between government and industry.
Still, with the nation’s cyber adversaries getting more sophisticated every day—developing new botnets, spyware, malware and ransomware—we have to be even more nimble and resilient, and stay ahead of these threats. The federal government—which is obligated to protect the information provided to it by the American people—has a unique responsibility to lead. But the fact is we still don’t have in place all the tools we need, including ones many businesses rely on every day.
That’s why, today, I’m announcing our new Cybersecurity National Action Plan, backed by my proposal to increase federal cybersecurity funding by more than a third, to over $19 billion. This plan will address both short-term and long-term threats, with the goal of providing every American a basic level of online security.
First, I’m proposing a $3 billion fund to kick-start an overhaul of federal computer systems. It is no secret that too often government IT is like an Atari game in an Xbox world. The Social Security Administration uses systems and code from the 1960s. No successful business could operate this way. Going forward, we will require agencies to increase protections for their most valued information and make it easier for them to update their networks. And we’re creating a new federal position, Chief Information Security Officer—a position most major companies have already adopted—to drive these changes across government.
Second, we’re stepping up our efforts to build a corps of cyber professionals across government to push best practices at every level. We’ll do more—including offering scholarships and forgiving student loans—to recruit the best talent from Silicon Valley and across the private sector. We’ll even let them wear jeans to the office. I want this generation of innovators to know that if they really want to have an impact, they can help change how their government interacts with and serves the American people in the 21st century.
Third, we’re strengthening our partnerships with the private sector to deter, detect and disrupt threats, including to the nation’s critical infrastructure. Yesterday, we inaugurated a new cybersecurity Center of Excellence, which will bring together industry and government experts to research and develop new cutting-edge cyber technologies. We’re also establishing a national testing lab, where companies can test their systems’ security under simulated attacks. And because every enterprise is potentially vulnerable, the Small Business Administration is offering cybersecurity training to over 1.4 million small businesses and their workers.
Fourth, we’re doing more to help empower Americans to protect themselves online. In partnership with industry, we’re launching a new national awareness campaign to raise awareness of cyberthreats and encourage more Americans to move beyond passwords—adding an extra layer of security like a fingerprint or codes sent to your cellphone. At the same time, leading technology firms like Google, Facebook, FB -0.33 % Dropbox and Microsoft MSFT 0.63 % are making it easier for millions of users to secure their online accounts, while credit-card and payment companies such asVisa, V 2.26 % MasterCard MA 2.97 % and PayPal PYPL 1.64 % are making transactions more secure.
Finally, because government doesn’t have all the answers to these complex challenges, we’re establishing a bipartisan Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity to focus on long-term solutions. Working together, my administration and congressional leaders will appoint top business, strategic and technology thinkers from outside government to provide specific recommendations for bolstering cybersecurity awareness and protections across the public and private sectors over the next decade.
As fast as our connected world is evolving, it is worth remembering that we’re still in the early days of this challenge. The first Web page came online in 1990. We’re only in the third decade of the Internet Age, and I believe we’ve only just scratched the surface of what’s possible—if we protect the innovation and privacy that we cherish as Americans.
These cyberthreats are a national-security risk few of my predecessors faced, but they will be ones my successors, regardless of party, must address. As long as I’m president, protecting America’s digital infrastructure is going to remain a top national-security priority. We won’t resolve all these challenges over the coming year, but we’re laying a strong foundation for the future. By taking these steps together, I’m confident we can unleash the full potential of American innovation, and ensure our prosperity and security online for the generations to come.
Mr. Obama is the president of the United States.
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The president’s new budget proposal for 2017 calls for a 200 percent increase for our military spending in Europe aimed at Russia—perhaps the most provocative step yet in our apparent efforts to encircle and antagonize that country.
Meanwhile, spending aimed at ISIS is to increase by 50 percent.
In a speech last week in Washington, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said explicitly that Russia constitutes a greater threat to U.S. security than ISIS, as witness Russian military activity from Ukraine to Syria. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, dutifully echoing the administration line, has indicated similar views.
This is belligerent nonsense.
Radical Islam has declared war on the United States, beheaded our citizens, planned and carried out the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killed our soldiers and Marines in Iraq and Afghanistan, and declared its intention to set up a caliphate that would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Caspian.
Drawing in Pakistan and the Caucasus, and expanding from there into Central Asia and beyond, the caliphate would claim a population roughly the size of the United States. It would possess nuclear weapons, which the Islamists have no qualms against using to destroy the modern world.
On the other hand, Russia’s activities in Ukraine and Syria, as Moscow sees it, represent a defensive effort to protect legitimate national interests. In the Kremlin’s view, Crimea is Russian and has no bearing whatsoever on U.S. security. Syria is as close to the Russian border as New York is to Chicago, and Russia will not countenance a jihadist regime in Damascus. It is only too mindful that fifteen thousand of the Islamic fighters in Syria are Chechens, who, once done there, will return to Russia for the next round of terrorist brutality.
As for Ukraine, had the United States encouraged that country’s electoral calendar to play out rather than accept the overthrow of the legitimately elected president, Viktor Yanukovych likely would have lost the February 2015 election. There is little doubt Crimea would now be a part of the Ukrainian Republic. If Ukraine is now a shambles, we must consider the role the West played in this strategic fiasco.
Likewise, we should have negotiated over the future of Syria without making it conditional on Assad’s departure (Moscow refused to participate in the charade of a “negotiation” with an already determined outcome). Syria in all likelihood might have averted the mayhem and chaos now engulfing a large part of that country. Russia would not be engaged militarily there, and Europe would not now be drowning in a flood of refugees who will not assimilate but are ready to assassinate.
Since the fall of Communism, Russia has concentrated on internal matters—yes, sometimes in a manner contrary to our values. Its leaders and policies have been seriously flawed. If Russia is expanding its military capabilities, this is a trend we must attend to, but that does not reactivate its status as our enemy.
It remains the case that NATO countries hugely outspend Moscow when it comes to military procurement. There is no evidence whatsoever that Russia, as when it was the Soviet Union, is embarked on a wanton course of global expansion. This is a country that unilaterally pulled its occupying troops out of Eastern Europe, a door closing on the Cold War.
Obviously, some highly influential people can’t accept that and leave the Cold War behind, their mindsets and careers linked to a lingering enmity between the Kremlin and the White House. In particular, they can be found as think tank strategists and arms merchants.
President Eisenhower, a career military man and one of our greatest heroes, did not shrink from warning his countrymen about the dangers of a rampant military-industrial complex. At the same time, such Cold War leaders who followed Ike understood that weakness is provocative and took steps to have sufficient military readiness to deter and defeat those who would do us harm.
President Nixon, at the Cold War’s height, saw the value in settling differences with Red China so as to offset the USSR. President Reagan saw no problem in sharing ABM technology with the Soviet Union, negotiating the removal of intermediate range nuclear weapons from the heart of Europe. He declared an end to the Cold War and strolled through Red Square arm-in-arm with President Gorbachev.
Today, we have the complete opposite approach: a waning military capacity coupled with petulant policies towards Russia, a country that could be an ally against such mutual enemies as radical Islam and, potentially, an expanding China.
It represents a stunning and total failure of vision, moral and strategic. We must cast aside such absurd, costly, unachievable and un-American ambitions that would have us policing and garrisoning the planet, intervening in every conflict. We must favor a policy that cultivates mutually beneficial relations with nations of like culture and values, negotiating smartly in the national interest—all, of course, while maintaining a defensive military posture second to none. America was conceived as a strong and healthy Republic, not a vitality-draining empire.
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Media Feature
February 12, 2016
Belfer Center Programs or Projects: US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 5-12, 2016
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.
Nuclear security:
- In the FY2017 budget request, submitted to the U.S. Congress, the Obama administration proposes to terminate construction of the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility near Aiken in South Caroline. The plant is being built to comply with an agreement with Russia in 2000, when both countries said they would eliminate 34 metric tons of weapons-grade plutonium from their nuclear arsenals. (New York Times, 02.09.16, IPFM Blog, 02.10.16).
- Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev and U.S. president Barack Obama can possibly meet on the margins of the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan George Krol has said. (Interfax. 02.11.16).
Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:
- Russian companies are broadly gearing up to get back into Iran. Sukhoi wants to sell its Superjet airliners. AvtoVAZ has started talks to open an assembly plant for Lada cars in Iran. Gazprom and Lukoil are weighing investments in a liquefied natural gas project on the Persian Gulf, and an oil field. The Eurasia Drilling Company and Tatneft both have good prospects. Russia’s Uralvagonzavod is willing to allow Iran to license-build the T-90S main battle tank domestically (New York Times, 02.09.16, National Interest, 02.09.16).
- An agreement between Russia and Iran to simplify procedures for issuing travel visas went into effect on February 6. (RFE/RL, 02.06.16).
Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:
- The defense ministers from all 28 NATO countries approved a plan on Wednesday to enhance the alliance's military presence in Central and Eastern Europe, part of its expanding efforts to deter Russian aggression, according to NATO's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg. The forces will rotate through the countries to conduct exercises, and NATO will also enlarge its infrastructure in the region so it can quickly respond to threats, Mr. Stoltenberg said. NATO announced more naval patrols in the Baltic Sea. The size of the land and maritime forces to take part in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization mission won't be decided until closer to the alliance summit in July. Douglas Lute, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said that that actual force levels will probably be hammered out only after consultations with NATO's supreme commander in Europe. One NATO official said one proposal under consideration calls for creation of a brigade-size force: roughly 3,000 troops. But the U.S. has said it would contribute an additional 3,000 soldiers to European defense next year. These U.S. forces are separate from those announced by NATO, but will provide a significant boost to allied forces distributed throughout Europe. According to a U.S. senior defense official, the 3,000 troops will be distributed throughout the Baltic states, as well as Bulgaria, Germany and the Netherlands. As part of its budget proposal for the 2017 fiscal year, the U.S. administration asked for $3.4 billion -- compared with $789 million in the current budget -- for ''more pre-positioned war-fighting gear'' in the European countries, and more training and exercises. Among the countries that NATO and the United States are looking to protect are Hungary, Romania, Ukraine and the Baltic States, according to the Obama administration officials. (Wall Street Journal, 02.11.16, Washington Post, 02.10.16, New York Times, Financial Times, 02.11.16, Washington Post, 02.11.16).
- NATO's plan to beef up its military presence near Russia's borders endangers security and stability in Europe, Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova said in a news conference Wednesday. "We do not understand the reason for such an action. We assume that NATO's [action] threatens Russia and also endangers security and stability in Europe," Zakharova said. Russia's envoy to NATO is also warning that Moscow will respond to a buildup of the alliance's forces near Russian borders. Aleksandr Grushko insisted that "Russia won't compromise its security interests," but wouldn't say what specific steps the Kremlin will take. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16, Moscow Times, 02.10.16).
- The Obama administration is pushing ahead with an expensive plan to modernize the country’s nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon budget for 2017 includes funding for a controversial new air-launched cruise missile that can carry nuclear weapons and for a new nuclear bomb, as well as new submarines and long-range bombers. While official statements so far have mainly justified the massive modernization of U.S. nuclear forces as simply extending the service-life of existing capabilities, the Pentagon now explicitly paints the nuclear modernization as a direct response to Russia. “The most significant shift in the future security environment—and that is a return to an era of great power competition,” Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work said during a press conference at the Pentagon on February 9. (National Interest, 02.11.16, Federation of American Scientists, 02.11.16, Financial Times, 02.11.16).
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is developing a new strategy to speed decision-making and improve its response to the kind of unconventional warfare the West says Russia has used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. A new hybrid warfare playbook would attempt to lay out the kind of assistance the alliance would provide should a member state come under outside pressure from Russia or another country. (Wall Street Journal, 02.08.16).
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov may hold a bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the sidelines of the security conference in Munich. Stoltenberg announced Tuesday that the alliance is ready for a renewal of “constructive talks” with Russia. “We do not seek confrontation with Russia and we want to prevent the possibility of a new Cold War," Stoltenberg said. (Moscow Times, 02.09.16, Interfax, 02.08.16).
- Thanks to increased Russian air and sea activity in the North Atlantic, the U.S. Navy is taking a new look at Naval Air Station Keflavík in Iceland. As part of this week’s 2017 budget rollout, the Navy requested $19 million to reopen at least part of the air station to start landing P-8A Poseidon spy planes there. (Foreign Policy, 02.11.16).
Missile defense:
- North Korea's latest rocket launch has helped South Korea overcome some of its hesitation about hosting the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, a sophisticated American anti-missile system on its soil. Moscow has warned that the deployment of this sophisticated U.S. missile-defense system to South Korea could “provoke an arms race” in the region and “complicate the resolution of the nuclear problem” on the Korean Peninsula. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16, Washington Post, 02.08.16).
Nuclear arms control:
- Moscow sees no progress in its dialogue with Washington on the INF treaty, Russian Foreign Ministry Nonproliferation and Arms Reduction Department Director Mikhail Ulyanov said. Moscow is ready for a dialogue with Washington on the elimination of the existing disagreements, and the U.S. should take Russia's concerns more seriously, he said. (Interfax, 02.10.16).
- White House national security adviser Susan Rice has called on Russia to resume negotiations to further reduce nuclear arsenals. Rice made the call February 5, on the fifth anniversary of the New START. But Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Washington's ongoing efforts at creating missile defense systems and developing the Prompt Global Strike (PGS) precision conventional weapon program has a continued destabilizing effect on nuclear disarmament talks. (RFE/RL, 02.05.16, Sputnik, 02.06.16).
- A new data processing network being prepared by Russia is intended to collate information on adherence to international arms agreements by countries around the world, including nuclear treaties between Russia and the U.S. According to the military's plan, the system will become a sort of "world supervisor." Its aims are to collect and process information from technical control resources based at sea and in space, as well as from inspection groups that monitor the territories of countries participating in corresponding agreements, and bring the information "to all the interested Russian ministries." (RBTH, 02.09.16).
Counter-terrorism:
- Russia's Federal Security Service announced the arrest of seven members of the Islamic State in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg, who were reportedly preparing "high-profile terrorist attacks" in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Sverdlovsk region with the use of homemade explosives. The leader of the group was an armed insurgent who arrived in Russia from Turkey, according to an official statement. (Moscow Times, 02.08.16).
- At the start of 2015, 150 Russian Chechens were fighting in the Middle East. Their total numbers, including those that came from Europe, hovered between 1,500 and 2,000 people. By the end of 2014, 85 to 100 fighters from Kabardino-Balkaria fought for ISIS in Syria. As for Dagestan, the republic’s President Ramazan Abdulatipov stated that there are 643 Dagestani jihadists in the Middle East. Incidentally, the South Caucasus also supplies new recruits to ISIS—about 500 Azerbaijani and 400 Georgian militants. (Carnegie, 02.12.16).
- An unidentified source in the Chechen government has claimed that there are no members of law enforcement agencies among Chechnya's fighters in Syria. The Chechens fighting in Syria consist of independent groups of young people who oppose the Islamic State, the source told the news agency. (Moscow Times, 02.09.16).
- U.S. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher wrote: “Syria is as close to the Russian border as New York is to Chicago, and Russia will not countenance a jihadist regime in Damascus. It is only too mindful that fifteen thousand of the Islamic fighters in Syria are Chechens, who, once done there, will return to Russia for the next round of terrorist brutality.” (National Interest, 02.11.16).
Cyber security:
- U.S. national intelligence director James Clapper said that Russia was the most sophisticated cyber actor, China one of the most pervasive, and Iran and North Korea among the boldest. Clapper said: “Russian cyber operations are likely to target US interests to support several strategic objectives: intelligence gathering to support Russian decision-making in the Ukraine and Syrian crises, influence operations to support military and political objectives, and continuing preparation of the cyber environment for future contingencies.”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16, New York Times, 02.11.16).
- U.S. President Barack Obama wrote: “Hackers in China and Russia are going after U.S. defense contractors.” (Wall Street Journal, 02.09.16).
- Security researchers have accused Russian developer of mobile phone apps Academ Media of defrauding companies out of millions of dollars via MoPub, the online advertising marketplace owned by Twitter. (Financial Times, 02.07.16).
- Hackers used malware to penetrate the defenses of a Russian regional bank and move the ruble-dollar rate more than 15 percent in minutes, according to a Moscow-based cyber-security firm hired to investigate the attack. (Bloomberg, 02.08.16).
- Vladimir Putin’s new Internet czar German Klimenko said forcing Google and Apple to pay more taxes and banning Microsoft Windows from government computers are necessary measures best explained in terms of barnyard economics and marital infidelity. “We are breeding the cow and they are milking it,” Klimenko said. (Bloomberg, 02.08.16).
Energy exports from CIS:
- The head of Russia's state oil company for the first time suggested oil producers should cut output to prop up plummeting oil prices. Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, told a conference in London on February 10 that major producers should cut production by 1 million barrels a day to reduce oversupply of about 1.5 million barrels a day. (RFE/RL, 02.11.16).
Bilateral economic ties:
- No significant developments.
Other bilateral issues:
- Vladimir “Putin is the first leader since Stalin to expand Russia's territory,'' U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper told a Senate committee. “We assess that the leading state intelligence threats to US interests will continue to be Russia and China, based on their capabilities, intent, and broad operational scope,” he said. (New York Times, 02.11.16, DNI.gov, 02.09.16).
- The United States Agency for International Development will spend nearly $1 billion in energy, economic, defense and civil society programs to counter Russian actions in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Central Asia, a US Department of State official said on Tuesday. (Sputnik, 02.09.16).
II. Russia news.
Domestic politics, economy and energy:
- The Russian budget could face an additional shortfall of up to 2.5 trillion rubles ($31.7 billion) this year if crude prices stay at around $30 per barrel, putting at risk the target of keeping the deficit at 3 percent of gross domestic product. Russia's Central Bank denied a report that it might welcome a fall in the ruble's value to help the government close a gaping budget deficit. Russia’s government was to present President Vladimir Putin Wednesday with a $10.5 billion plan to revive the shrinking economy. (Bloomberg, 02.09.16, RFE/RL, 02.12.16,(Reuters, 02.10.16).
- The Russian government would have to apply for financing from the Reserve Fund if the oil prices stabilize around $30 per barrel, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. (Interfax, 02.06.16).
- While Russia will still be in recession in 2016, the pace of the contraction in its gross domestic product will slow to 0.5 percent from 3.7 percent, according to the Bank of America Corp. That will be less of a drag on overall growth in developing nations, which he sees expanding 4.2 percent, after 4 percent growth in 2015. (Bloomberg, 02.07.16).
- The spending of Russians exceeded their income in 2015 for the first time in 18 years, the Kommersant newspaper reported Wednesday, citing the Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting. (Moscow Times, 02.10.16).
- The number of suicides in Russian totaled 24,982 last year — the lowest number in 50 years. (Moscow Times, 02.10.16).
- Senior Russian government official Sergei Donskoi on Tuesday formally presented to the United Nations his country's claim to Arctic Ocean seabed, including an area under the North Pole. Russia is staking a claim, he said, ''to the seabed beyond the 200-mile zone along the entire Russian polar sector including the zone under the North Pole.'' (New York Times, 02.10.16).
- Russia's Kurchatov Institute and state nuclear corporation Rosatom have signed a cooperation agreement "to harness synergies in the joint development of promising new technologies and the modernization of existing technology in the nuclear power and energy transport sector". (World Nuclear News. 02.09.16).
- A survey carried out by the independent Levada Center pollster revealed that 53 percent of Russians would support Vladimir Putin's candidacy if the presidential elections took place the following Sunday. (Moscow Times, 02.11.16).
- The Agora human rights association was ordered shut Wednesday by a regional court, potentially silencing one more voice in a continued Russian crackdown on independent civil society. The Justice Ministry has also asked Moscow's Basmanny District Court to ban independent election monitor Golos (Washington Post, 02.11.16,Moscow Times, 02.11.16).
- Russian opposition leader and anticorruption crusader Aleksei Navalny has filed a lawsuit against President Vladimir Putin, accusing the Russian leader of failing to disclose a conflict of interest in an award of $1.75 billion in government financing to a company owned by his son-in-law. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected allegations that Putin is siphoning off state funds to a small group of handpicked insiders.(RFE/RL, 02.11.16).
- Mikhail Kasyanov, a leading figure in the political opposition whose image the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan A. Kadyrov, menacingly posted online in the cross hairs of a sniper rifle this month, was attacked late Tuesday in Moscow by a dozen or so men who placed a cake on his head at a restaurant. (New York Times, 02.10.16).
Defense and Aerospace:
- Russia says more than 20 warships and support vessels have departed from their bases in the Caspian Sea and begun training as part of massive combat readiness exercises across the country's southwest. The military says the snap drill, which kicked off on February 8, will involve up to 8,500 troops and 200 aircraft. Gazeta.ru cited a military analyst saying the air and naval maneuvers were intended to send “a little signal” to the Turks. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16, New York Times, 02.08.16).
- Cold War foes Russia and Pakistan are set to hold their first joint military drills on land, a sign that neighboring Afghanistan may avoid becoming the site of another proxy war between global powers. Russian ground forces will hold military exercises with Pakistan in “mountainous terrain" this year for the first time, Russian Army Commander-in-Chief Oleg Salyukov said. (Bloomberg, 02.10.16).
- Russia's plan to develop a new Barguzin rail-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile looks set to be scrapped as budgetary pressures begin to put pressure on Russian defense procurement. (IHS Jane's Defence, 02.07.16).
- Fiji's government acknowledged Tuesday that Russia donated arms worth $8.8 million, delivered in more than 20 containers to the island country last month. Some 20 Russian soldiers also arrived to train local troops. (Wall Street Journal, 02.11.16).
- The International Institute for Strategic Studies’ analysis of the top 15 defense budgets around the world in 2015 indicates that China and Russia have maintained their overall rank of second and fourth place respectively. However, the double-digit real increase in the Russian defense budget in 2015 meant that it dominated global defense-budget increases last year, accounting for around one fifth of all real global-spending increases in 2015. Total Russian defense spending is estimated to have risen to above 5% of GDP in 2015. (IISS, 02.09.16).
Security, law-enforcement and justice:
- Former Russian senator Sergei Pugachev is facing jail after a British judge found him guilty of breaching a dozen court orders including failing to hand over travel documents and passwords to e-mail accounts. (Bloomberg, 02.08.16).
- Financial transactions worth 11.7 trillion rubles ($152 billion) were classified as "suspicious" in Russia last year, the TASS news agency reported Monday, citing state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring. (Moscow Times, 02.08.16).
- Russian Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin has confirmed that former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky was declared internationally wanted. (Interfax, 02.11.16).
Foreign affairs and trade:
- Syria:
- World powers agreed early Friday to on a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria in a week. The hostilities will be halted against all parties except the extremist groups Islamic State and Nusra Front, and any defined as terrorists by the United Nations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the projected date for ending at least some of his country's airstrikes in Syria is a week from Friday, but he emphasized that "terrorist" groups would continue to be targeted. The determination of eligible targets and geographic areas is to be left up to a task force of nations, headed by Russia and the United States, that will adjudicate differences of opinion. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said what he envisions a week from now ''is a pause.'' Kerry also said the world powers also agreed to expand delivery of humanitarian aid across Syria. The aim is that humanitarian relief begin as early as this weekend, with Russian airdrops to at least seven areas of Syria that cannot be easily reached by road. (Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, 02.11.16).
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the agreement on Syria announced early Friday called for more military cooperation between Russia and the United State. He said Russia and the United States have set up a working group on the Syria ceasefire, which will involve diplomats and servicemen and determine the “modalities" of a cessation of hostilities, Lavrov said. The working group, he said, could lead toward a joint effort including Russia and the U.S. against terrorist groups in Syria. Lavrov referred to a "qualitative" change in U.S. military policy to cooperate with Russia in continuing the fight against the Islamic State. However, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said there had been no change in the U.S. policy. Rather, he said, humanitarian and other agreed-upon programs would require the ability "to talk about deployment of forces, the presence of people, who can go where, how they get there, and avoid conflict in ways that are effective" to implement the agreement. (Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, RBTH, 02.11.16).
- Salem al-Meslet, the spokesman for a negotiating team appointed by the Syrian opposition to open U.N.-sponsored talks with the government, said before the ceasefire agreement was announced. "Hopefully, we'll see something by Monday." U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura said he anticipated an early resumption of talks between the Syrian government and the opposition. Meslet said the opposition would return to talks if the new plan is implemented. (Washington Post, 02.11.16).
- Should the latest attempt at peace talks in Syria fail, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev raised the specter of a permanent or wider "war on Earth" as the United States and Arab nations are now contemplating beginning ground operations in Syria. Medvedev made the prediction in an interview he granted before attending Munich Security Conference on February 12 The war in Syria, the refugee crisis and Russia's border-bending interference on Europe's eastern edge topped the agenda of the conference. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16).
- Saudi Arabia has been discussing plans to deploy ground troops with regional allies, including Turkey, for a safe zone in Syria. If Saudi and Turkish forces were deployed at Syria’s northwestern border crossings with Turkey, for example, they would be inside Russia’s operational theatre. “This would be a total nightmare for the US,” said analyst Aaron Stein, of the Atlantic Council in Washington. “What happens if Russia kills a Turk? They would be killing a Nato member.” (FT, 02.09.16).
- The Russian bombardment of opposition forces north of Aleppo, a rebel stronghold, has severed opposition supply lines and threatened to allow government-aligned forces to encircle the city. The Russian blitz has allowed pro-government ground forces to push north to with 20 miles of the Turkish border. This is the same area where the United States and Turkey have planned to carve out an opposition-held zone to combat Islamic State forces approaching it from the east. "Russia is the second superpower in the world, and Russia is using all of its power against the rebels," said Mohammed Adib, a political officer with Jabhat Shamiya, the main rebel group fighting in northern Aleppo province. (Washington Post, 02.10.16).
- For months now the United States has insisted there can be no military solution to the Syrian civil war. But after days of intense bombing that could soon put the critical city of Aleppo back into the hands of Mr. Assad's forces, the Russians may be proving the United States wrong. There may be a military solution, one senior American official conceded Wednesday, ''just not our solution,'' but that of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. (New York Times, 02.11.16).
- Testifying on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, the director of national intelligence, James R. Clapper, offered a sobering picture of Russia's success in Syria, even if it proves a temporary one. “Increased Russian involvement, particularly airstrikes, will probably help the regime regain key terrain in high priority areas in western Syria, such as Aleppo and near the coast,” he said. (New York Times, 02.11.16, DNI.gov, 02.09.16).
- "What we're doing is testing [Russian and Iranian] seriousness," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said ahead of the Syrian peace talks in Munich. "And if they're not serious, then there has to be consideration of a Plan B. . . . You can't just sit there." (Washington Post, 02.10.16).
- Human Rights Watch said on February 8 that cluster munitions were used in at least 14 attacks across five provinces in Syria since January 26.The attacks killed at least 37 civilians, including six women and nine children, an HRW report said, urging Russia and Syria to stop using cluster munitions. (RFE/RL, 02.08.16).
- Russia's ambassador to Damascus says an estimated 10,000 Russian citizens are currently living in war-torn Syria. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16).
- Russia says there is "no credible evidence" of civilian deaths as a result of Russian air strikes in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the comments on February 9, a day after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was "horrified" by the suffering being caused by Russia's bombing campaign among civilians. The spokesman also described as "wrong and absurd" accusations by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Russia was engaged in an invasion of Syria. Erdogan has described Russian President Vladimir Putin as an "occupier" in Syria The Russian foreign ministry has also criticized UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon over his claim that Russian air strikes in Syria had undermined last week's peace talks to end the country's five-year war. (NDTV, 02.08.16, RFE/RL, 02.09.16, Moscow Times, 02.08.16).
- Russian attack planes have destroyed nine trucks carrying ammunition and militants in the Latakia governorate in Syria, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told journalists on Feb. 11. (Interfax, 02.11.16).
- Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that two influential terrorist leaders have been killed in Russian air strikes in Syria. A large group of Islamic State militants, along with their leader Abu Maher, were killed in air attacks around the village of Kalaz Taktani. “Abu Anas Al-Shami — leader of the terrorist group Jaysh al-Sham — was also killed in the same province,” Konashenkov said.(Moscow Times, 02.11.16).
- Two Ilyushin Il-76 military-transport airplanes from the Russian Aerospace Forces landed at Russia's Hmeimim airbase on Feb. 11 morning, delivering some 50 tons of humanitarian air for the Syrian population. (Interfax, 02.11.16).
- Other countries:
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Russia Dmitry Rogozin in a visit to Baghdad offered to provide more military aid and step up commercial ties, potentially eroding U.S. influence in the war-torn country. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16).
- Vladimir Putin told Nursultan Nazarbaev that the tensions between Moscow and Ankara were caused by the Turkish side and therefore Turkey has to start fence-mending efforts. Restoration of relations with Turkey will be out of the question until it meets the Russian demand for punishing the culprits behind the crash of Russia's Sukhoi Su-24 bomber, Russian Ambassador to Ankara, Andrei Karlov has said (RFE/RL, 02.08.16, Interfax, 02.08.16)..
- Russian-Turkish trade fell by nearly 25 percent last year. And financial losses for Moscow's airports from Russia's ban on flights to Turkey, Egypt and Ukraine amount to 6 billion rubles ($76 million). (Moscow Times, 02.09.16).
- Since taking up his position as Russian foreign minister 12 years ago, the time Sergei Lavrov has spent in the air is the equivalent of 178.5 full days, covering a distance of more than 3.3 million kilometers. (Moscow Times, 02.10.16).
- The European Union has imposed antidumping duties on cold-rolled flat steel imports from China and Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16).
Russia's neighbors:
- Ukraine:
- Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko assured the International Monetary Fund (IMF) he remains committed to pursuing economic reforms and purging corruption from his government. After receiving a sharp warning from the lender that Ukraine's $17.5 billion bailout is at risk on February 10, Poroshenko spoke with IMF managing director Christine Lagarde by phone and agreed to draw up a "road map" aimed at keeping reforms on track. IMF has put aid to Ukraine on hold until it becomes clear whether the current government survives. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has also urged Poroshenko to quickly reestablish a unified government and carry out reforms sought by the West. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16, RFE/RL, 02.12.16, RFE/RL, 02.09.16).
- Danish Foreign Minister Kristian Jensen said Ukraine must fully carry out the reforms outlined by the Minsk process for regulating the conflict between Kyiv and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. Otherwise, "it will be very difficult for Europe to continue united in support of sanctions against Russia." (RFE/RL, 02.05.16).
- Germany is asking Ukraine to propose a new offer to resolve a dispute with Russia over a $3 billion bond default after President Vladimir Putin’s government rejected a proposal put forward last month. (Bloomberg, 02.09.16).
- Yulia V. Tymoshenko, a former prime minister of Ukraine who now leads a minority party in Parliament, said during her visit to U.S. last Friday that she and her allies would staunchly oppose constitutional changes that the United States and European powers view as crucial to carrying out a peace agreement with Russia. Tymoshenko also said that she would push for early parliamentary elections -- ''the sooner, the better'' -- which are opposed by the United States because the parties of President Petro O. Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk are virtually certain to lose seats. (New York Times, 02.06.16).
- Fighting that had been quiet for several months between Russia-backed insurgents and government forces has picked up in eastern Ukraine, punctuated by regular artillery shelling, the use of land mines and other tactics that have put civilians at risk. (New York Times, 02.11.16).
- U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in a prepared statement: “The potential for escalation remains…Levels of violence in eastern Ukraine have decreased, but Moscow’s objectives in Ukraine—maintaining long-term influence over Kyiv and frustrating Ukraine’s attempts to integrate into Western institutions—will probably remain unchanged in 2016”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16).
- According to sources in Brussels, EU diplomats have been briefed in recent weeks by U.S. diplomats who have indicated that Russia might become more constructive about resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine in the coming months. The American optimism stems from a meeting last month in Kaliningrad between Victoria Nuland, and Vladislav Surkov. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16).
- European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini initiated an internal debate last month with a group of fellow European commissioners on how to improve cooperation with Russia, causing concern among EU members that want to keep up the pressure on Moscow over its interference in Ukraine. The European External Action Service will also prepare a discussion paper on the EU's relationship with Russia, to be discussed when the bloc's foreign ministers meet in Brussels on March 14. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16).
- The lead defense lawyer for Ukrainian pilot and Verkhovnaya Rada deputy Nadia Savchenko says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to the conditions of her return to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.06.16).
- Kyiv is planning to spend an estimated $1.7 billion to bring its nuclear power facilities, many of which are nearing the end of their planned life spans, up to current Western standards. (RFE/RL, 02.08.16).
- Other neighbors:
- Azerbaijan says at least five Armenian soldiers have been killed in a clash with Azerbaijani forces near the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. De-facto officials of Nagorno-Karabakh rejected the statement, saying Azerbaijani snipers had shot a shepherd dead on February 11-12 and shelled the breakaway region's positions with grenade launchers and mortars. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16).
- U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in a prepared statement: “Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh remained high in 2015. Baku’s sustained military buildup coupled with declining economic conditions in Azerbaijan are raising the potential that the conflict will escalate in 2016.”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16).
- U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in a prepared statement: “Moscow will continue to push for greater regional integration, raising pressure on neighboring states to follow the example of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan and join the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.”(DNI.gov, 02.09.16).
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says Georgia is moving closer to the military alliance by making reforms and major contributions to "our shared security." Stoltenberg made his comments after a meeting of the NATO-Georgia Commission in Tbilisi on February 11. (RFE/RL, 02.11.16).
- A Georgian envoy says the next round of talks between Russia and Georgia on normalizing bilateral ties has been moved to mid-March. (RFE/RL, 02.08.16).
- Tajikistan is to hold a referendum on May 22 on constitutional amendments that would enable President Emomali Rahmon to establish a presidential dynasty. (RFE/RL, 02.10.16).
- The troop presence at the 201st Military Base in Tajikistan, Russia's biggest non-naval military facility beyond its borders, will be downsized from a division to a brigade, a senior Russian general said. (RFE/RL, 02.05.16).
- The United States has rebuffed a pro-Russia politician's claim that Washington was "plotting" Moldova's unification with European Union and NATO member Romania. (RFE/RL, 02.09.16).
Back issues of Russia in Review are available here. If you wish to either unsubscribe from or subscribe to Russia in Review, please e-mail Simon Saradzhyan atsimon_saradzhyan@hks.harvard.edu.
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For Academic Citation:
"Russia in Review.", February 12, 2016.
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February 12, 2016
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 5-12, 2016
The planned encounter between Pope Francis and the Russian Orthodox leader bridges a nearly 1,000-year division.
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The Costs That Come With Russia's Gains In Syriaby support@pangea-cms.com (Charles Recknagel)
Russia's bombing campaign has redrawn the Syrian battlefield and strengthened the hand of Damascus for peace talks. But those gains come at a high cost.
More Russia Bombings in Syria Ahead of Partial Truceby webdesk@voanews.com (Pamela Dockins)
Diplomats agreed in Munich Friday to work toward a temporary, partial pause in the fighting in Syria within a week, but efforts to negotiate a full cease-fire fell short. Russian warplanes continued their bombing runs over northern Syria on Friday, and Moscow's envoys made clear that their military campaign supporting the Damascus government is still underway. The intensive Russian air campaign has shifted the balance of power after more than five years of civil war, and President Bashar al-Assad's forces are poised to capture Aleppo city. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Moscow's airstrikes, ostensibly aimed at Islamic State terrorists, actually have targeted other insurgent groups in most cases, including those supported by the West. Stoltenberg said the Russian bombings have "actually undermined efforts to reach a negotiated, peaceful solution" of the crisis in Syria. But the NATO chief said he is hopeful that Moscow can still play a "a more constructive role" in Syria. "The important thing now is to see that this agreement is fully implemented on the ground," Stoltenberg said, so humanitarian aid can reach civilians trapped in besieged areas of northern Syria. 'Cessation of hostilities' details The agreement the NATO chief referred to was announced after midnight Thursday by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov - a plan for a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria within a week, with a formal cease-fire to follow at a later date. The deal was issued in the name of the 17-nation International Syria Support Group. The main parties in the war, the Assad government and Syria's multiple rebel factions, did not sign the "cessation of hostilities" agreement and are not bound by it. However, the ISSG says the "cessation of hostilities" can begin only after "confirmation by the Syrian government and opposition, following appropriate consultations in Syria." Under questioning Friday about what was accomplished, Kerry said the agreement for a partial, temporary truce in Syria is a significant accomplishment, but acknowledged it would be only a temporary pause in fighting. "The real test is whether all the parties honor those commitments and implement them," he added. More work is needed to develop the Munich agreement, which Kerry conceded is only "commitments on paper," into a full-fledged cease-fire, U.S. officials said. 'NATO will not intercept refugee boats' Stoltenberg said NATO is supporting the ISSG by increasing monitoring and surveillance along the Turkish-Syrian border, the pathway for refugees heading toward Europe, and also is sending its "standing maritime group" to the Aegean Sea, the perilous route used by refugees traveling from Turkey to Greece in small boats. "This is not about sending back the boats," Stoltenberg told reporters in Munich, "but it is about NATO helping our allies - Greece, Turkey and the European Union - to better cope with the refugee and migrant crisis." Humanitarian access to battle-scarred northern Syria was to be discussed by an ISSG working group on Friday in Geneva. Kerry and Lavrov said their two countries would chair both the working group and a task force to work out the "modalities" of the temporary truce. The task force will include military officials and representatives of other countries that are supporting various armed groups in Syria. Timing and other details about how a temporary truce would be expanded to a formal cease-fire presumably are among the "modalities" under discussion. Moscow wanted more time before truce Moscow originally proposed ending its airstrikes by March 1, according to media reports. Since that would have given Moscow and the Syrian army three more weeks to crush Western- and Arab-backed rebels, the U.S. team in Munich countered with demands for an immediate halt to the fighting. In the background are deep divisions between the United States and Russia over which opposition groups are to be covered by the "cessation of hostilities," and included in subsequent political talks. Moscow contends its military campaign is aimed only at two groups - the Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front, which is affiliated with al-Qaida - because they have been labeled as terrorist organizations by the United Nations. Russia, Syria and Iran, which also is actively supporting the Assad regime, say other groups supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states also should be excluded from any cease-fire. Despite persistent complaints from communities in northern Syria that Russian bombs are destroying civilian areas, and images from Aleppo, which has been under heavy attack for more than a week, Lavrov denied that the Russian military targets any civilian areas. Since 2011, the conflict in Syria has killed more than a quarter-million people - and possibly many more, according to revised estimates published this week - and created Europe's biggest refugee crisis since World War II.
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As Russian airstrikes help the Assad regime make gains, and refugees flee to Europe, the agreement sees Moscow trouncing the US and its allies
Putting aside the unfortunate historical ring to “peace” agreements signed in Munich, today’s Syrian truce is deeply flawed and unlikely to hold for long. The “cessation of hostilities” – for it is not a true ceasefire – has been hailed as a landmark piece of diplomacy that brings some respite to a war that long ago spiralled out of control.
The veteran diplomat Lord Williams told the BBC: “In a cold war fashion, the two superpowers have taken ownership of the problem.” In fact, it is the US and Europe that appear to own the problem, while Russia has held tight to the solution. Washington, wielding words, has few credible means of enforcement against Moscow, wielding unguided, though effective, bombs. This is why the truce includes loopholes large enough to fly a few dozen Russian jets through.
Continue reading...
TIME |
Why the Syrian Ceasefire Will Not Stop Russia's Bombing Campaign
TIME While the talks did result in a hopeful pledge for the “nationwide cessation of hostilities” within one week, the agreement will not impede Russian bombs from continuing to pummel Syrian cities. Nor will it resolve the core disagreements between the U ... Skepticism greets Syria truce deal on worries over Russian bombingWashington Post US, Russia and UN say Syria fighting 'cessation' to take effect next weekFox News 'Cessation Of Hostilities' In Syria Lets Russia Keep BombingHuffington Post Newsweek -Reuters -New York Times all 2,648 news articles » |
To many, the deal hammered out in Munich overnight seemed like just another irrelevant set of words dictated by diplomats in a foreign capital.
Calling South Korea’s decision to suspend operations at the jointly run Kaesong industrial zone a “declaration of war,” North Korea has moved to kick out all South Koreans from the area. Reuters tells us that, for years, the industrial park has been considered a “symbol of cooperation” between the two Koreas. South Korea’s decision to cease cooperation comes after North Korea launched a satellite into space and also tested a nuclear bomb earlier this year.
The United States has also moved forward with a response to the hermit kingdom’s satellite launch and nuclear bomb test. On Wednesday, the Senate unanimously approved new sanctions against North Korea. The Hill reports that the newly passed legislation will “require the Obama administration to sanction anyone involved with Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, arms-related materials, luxury goods, human rights abuses, activities that negatively impact cybersecurity, and the use of coal or metals in any of the activities.”
However, one individual who may have been sanctioned recently met a far worse end. Reportedly,North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un had Ri Yong Gil, chief of the North Korean military’s general staff, executed for corruption and other charges, among them “forming a clique.” Ri had previously missed two key national events. He is the 70th North Korean official executed since Kim's inauguration. The Associated Press has more.
In Europe today, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said that he expects more than two dozen countries to contribute to the battle against the Islamic State, as the United States seeks to accelerate efforts in the fight. Speaking at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Carter is expected to lay out his plan to other NATO allies in an afternoon meeting and will also ask them to find ways to increase their contributions to the fight.
Even as Secretary Carter seeks more help from allies, Brett McGurk, the United States’ special envoy to the coalition fighting the Islamic State, notes that we “still have a long ways to go.” Testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday, McGurk said that the U.S.-led military campaign is starting to see results, citing that airstrikes have reduced Islamic State oil output by 30 percent. However, he also noted that militants still control 80 percent of Syria’s energy resources.
McGurk also referenced Russia’s air campaign “against” Islamic State militants, saying that 70 percent of Russian airstrikes do not target the Islamic State at all, but instead hit opposition groups that are ready to fight against ISIS. Mr. McGurk stated, “What Russia’s doing is directly enabling ISIL.” Indeed, it would appear we have a long ways to go.
There is some good news out of Ramadi, however. Military Times reports that the Iraqi army has, at last, seized control of the entire city—six weeks after they initially declared victory. Even though the city has officially been retaken, U.S. airstrikes continue to hit small Islamic State targets that remain in the area. In the city, the Iraqi military continues to face “untold thousands” of booby-trapped homes and improvised explosive devices.
The Russians are also messing up the United States’ plans for peace talks to end the war in Syria. For months now, the United States has been adamant that there can be no military solution in Syria, only a peace accord between Bashar al-Assad’s government and opposition forces. However, theNew York Times suggests that Russia may be proving the United States wrong. On Wednesday, a senior U.S. official conceded that there may be a military solution, “just not our solution.” The Timeshas more.
Even so, Russia has proposed a ceasefire in Syria that would take effect on March 1. According to the AP, the United States believes that Moscow is using the three weeks before March to help the Syrian government crush opposition forces. The United States responded to Russia’s ceasefire request with demands for the fighting to stop immediately. Peace talks aimed at ending the five-year Syrian civil war are set to resume on February 25.
Rejecting demands to open its borders to tens of thousands of more Syrian refugees, Turkey angrily stated that if they were to do so, the move “would amount to complicity in the Russian-backed offensive to drive rebels out” of Aleppo. Turkey is hesitant to open borders to the refugees due to fears that hostile forces could overrun its territory. The Washington Post calls the chaos in Aleppo the latest reminder of “ways in which civilians have routinely become pawns in the Syrian conflict.” The Syrian conflict has displaced nearly 5.5 million refugees.
As refugee numbers continue to rise, allies of the United States are sharply criticizing the Obama administration’s Syria policy. The Times reports that outgoing French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius called President Obama’s Syria plan “ambiguous” and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the United States’ inaction in the conflict has allowed the region to descend into a bloodbath. President Erdogan once again lashed out at the United States’ support of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which his country labels a terrorist group that is affiliated with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK).
Speaking of the Kurdistan fighters, Defense One shares an on-the-ground chronicle of the guerilla fighters in Kurdistan that are battling the Islamic State. Some of the fighters believe that when the war ends, the Kurds could potentially have their own state. Check out the video here.
While the United States and its allies feud, U.S. allies are finding new ways to cooperate with one another. Defense News tells us that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are planning to hold joint military drills in what Turkish diplomats describe as efforts to “cooperate against common threats.” However, some analysts express caution that this partnership could ignite sectarian tensions, prompting a response from Iran.
In rhetoric that will be familiar to Americans, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has announced that he intends to “surround all of Israel with a fence” in order to protect the country from Palestinians and citizens from surrounding Arab states, whom he described as “wild beasts.” The barrier to protect Israel is projected to cost billions. The Guardian has more.
An Afghan policeman was shot by a NATO coalition soldier after attempting to carry out an insider attack. Insider attacks on the Afghan police force have plagued the agency for months. Although it remains unknown why the police officer shot at coalition forces, similar attacks, dubbed “green on blues,” have been attributed to the Taliban. The policeman died of his injuries sustained in the shootout. The Taliban has not claimed credit for the assault.
Speaking of the Taliban, the insurgent group in Afghanistan has a new and particularly brutal commander of its forces combating the Islamic State and other groups that deny Mullah Mansoor as “Leader of the Faithful.” The Daily Beast profiles the Taliban’s Pir Agha here.
Two female suicide bombers belonging to Boko Haram attacked the Dikwa refugee camp in northeast Nigeria on Tuesday. The Times tells us that three girls entered the refugee camp on Monday and were welcomed with shelter. Early Tuesday morning, two of the girls detonated bombs that they had concealed, killing 58 people and wounding an additional 78. The other suicide bomber recognized that her parents and siblings were at the same camp and refused to detonate her device. Instead, she turned herself over to the authorities, warning that more attacks were coming.
In Cameroon, another double suicide bombing killed at least 10 people and wounded 40 others.Today the governor of Cameroon’s Far North region, Midjiyawa Bakari, said that the bombers are suspected of coming from Nigeria. No further information was provided on the suicide attack, however the AP writes that Boko Haram has previously staged similar attacks in this region of Cameroon.
The Daily Beast reports that the Pentagon has grounded plans to develop a carrier-based bomber drone. The Department of Defense’s budget proposal for 2017 released yesterday shoots down the “on-again, off-again” program that aimed to develop a bomb-wielding robotic jet that could launch and land from a U.S. Naval aircraft carrier. The Beast has more on the now scrapped plan.
NATO and the European Union have reached an agreement to improve cooperation in cyber defense. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called the new agreement an example of how both organizations are joining forces to combat modern forms of hybrid warfare. The AP shares that the agreement establishes a framework for emergency response teams to share information and best practices.
The Judicial Redress Act passed the House late Wednesday and now heads to the president’s desk for signature. The bill extends privacy protections to “the digital content” of citizens from European nations whose data flows into the United States. The Judicial Redress Act’s passage reflects a key step forward for the new “privacy shield” struck earlier this month between the United States and the European Union.
The FBI has requested $38.3 million to develop and acquire tools that will allow it to access encrypted data. FBI Director James Comey has publicly complained for more than a year that his agency does not have the necessary tools to access encrypted data during its investigations.Motherboard has more here on the budget request.
Buzzfeed tells us that the CIA corrected its own corrections to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence’s Study of the CIA’s Enhanced Interrogation Program—without telling anyone. Take a look at the “Note to Readers” on the report from the CIA here.
Chief Military Commissions Prosecutor Brigadier General Mark Martins has submitted in a filing in a Guantanamo Bay military commission that the executive summary of the SSCI study is in fact accurate. The Washington Post tells us that Brig. Gen. Mark Martins made his declaration in a long motion filed in the military commission case against five suspects accused of carrying out the September 11th terrorist attacks.
The AP reports that the human rights group Amnesty International has requested that the Defense Department investigate claims by Mustafa al-Hawsawi’s lawyers that he is receiving inadequate medical treatment. In a letter, interim head of Amnesty International, Margaret Huang states that Hawsawi “is reported to be suffering chronic and potentially life-threatening illness, and he requires appropriate and ongoing medical assessment and treatment.” Yet a Pentagon spokesman, Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross, signaled that detainees receive the same treatment as soldiers.
And in a final bit of fun GTMO news, the Wall Street Journal reports that House Republicans have hired attorneys for legal advice in a possible lawsuit against the Obama administration if President Obama tries to transfer the remaining detainees from Guantanamo Bay to the United States.
Parting Shot: Have you ever wondered what members of al Qaeda were thinking as they developed the the September 11th plot and watched it take form? The folks over at the Long War Journalprovide a summary of AQAP’s former leader’s “untold story” with Osama bin Laden. Take a look.
ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare
Jack Goldsmith commented on the impending “humanitarian catastrophe” in Aleppo.
Laura Dean released the fifth dispatch of her series, Syria Displaced, highlighting refugee communities in the Aksaray and Fatih neighborhoods of Istanbul.
Andrew Keane Woods shared his thoughts on the US-UK Data Deal, arguing that headlines announcing the agreement should have been titled, “US and UK Take Important Step for Internet Privacy.”
Nicholas Weaver responded to Susan Hennessey’s piece on the NSA’s recently announced reorganization, saying that the main problem with the agency’s reorganization is one of trust and perception.
Ellen Scholl renewed her Hot Commodities roundup of the latest energy news, in which a new year begins with the same problems.
Email the Roundup Team noteworthy law and security-related articles to include, and follow us onTwitter and Facebook for additional commentary on these issues. Sign up to receive Lawfare in your inbox. Visit our Events Calendar to learn about upcoming national security events, and check out relevant job openings on our Job Board.
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At the end of hours of debate in Munich, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced early Friday, Feb. 12, that the US, Russia and other powers had agreed to a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria’s civil war to take place next week and immediate humanitarian access to besieged areas.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov added: The cessation would go into effect next Friday, Feb. 19 but, he stressed, “terrorist” groups would continue to be targeted.
Possibly for the first time in his diplomatic career, Kerry termed an international document he initiated “words on paper” because, he said, “the proof of commitment will come only with implementation.”
The document was signed by 17 nations, including Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubayr for the Syrian opposition and Iran’s top diplomat Muhammed Javad Zarif in the name of the Assad regime.
The document was signed by 17 nations, including Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubayr for the Syrian opposition and Iran’s top diplomat Muhammed Javad Zarif in the name of the Assad regime.
Lavrov listed the terrorist groups that will continue to be targeted as the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Since Jabhat members are integrated in many non-jihadi rebel groups, debkafile’s analysts infer enough caveats in the paper to be used as carte blanche for Russia, Syria, Iran and Hizballah to carry on fighting the Assad regime’s enemies, even after the ceasefire goes into effect.
The nub of the Munich accord was therefore the parties authorized to name the terrorists. This was spelled out as follows: “The determination of eligible targets and geographic areas is to be left up to a task force of nations headed by Russia and the United States.”
This puts the entire agreement in the joint hands of the US and Russia. Lavrov emphasized, “The key thing is to build direct contacts, not only on procedures to avoid incidents, but also cooperation between our militaries.”
This puts the entire agreement in the joint hands of the US and Russia. Lavrov emphasized, “The key thing is to build direct contacts, not only on procedures to avoid incidents, but also cooperation between our militaries.”
The Munich accord therefore provided the framework for expanding the existing US-Russian coordination on air force flights over Syria to cover their direct collaboration in broader aspects of military operations in the war-torn country.
Lavrov mentioned a “qualitative” change in US military policy to cooperate with Russia in continuing the fight against the Islamic State, but it clearly goes beyond that.
debkafile’s military sources report that this collaboration has been in place since December, when Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin concluded a secret pact for working together to end the Syrian war.
This pact was first revealed by DEBKA Weekly as setting out a division of military responsibility between the two powers: The Americans took charge of areas east of the Euphrates, leaving the Russians responsible for the territory east of the river. The Munich accord provides this pact with a formal framework
A glance at the attached map shows the specifics of their arrangement:
The Russians military is in control of all the land in southern, central and western Syria, including Damascus, the southern town of Daraa, Homs, Hama and Latakia in the center and Aleppo in the north.
The US military has control of the Kurdish towns of Hassakeh and Qamishli in the north, the ISIS de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa and the border regions between Syria and Iraq. The Syrian-Turkish border district is divided between the Russians and Americans.
The Russians military is in control of all the land in southern, central and western Syria, including Damascus, the southern town of Daraa, Homs, Hama and Latakia in the center and Aleppo in the north.
The US military has control of the Kurdish towns of Hassakeh and Qamishli in the north, the ISIS de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa and the border regions between Syria and Iraq. The Syrian-Turkish border district is divided between the Russians and Americans.
Therefore, behind the diplomatic bombast, the Munich accord for ending hostilities in Syria provided a rubber stamp for the hostilities to continue, amid the ramping up of US military intervention in the war, both by air and on the ground, in close collaboration with Russia.
Neither Kerry nor Lavrov referred to the massive refugee crisis building up primarily on the locked Syrian-Turkish frontier, indicating Ankara’s exclusion from the Munich deliberations and the big power planning for Syria’s future.
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New York Times
Munich Puts Stamp on Tightened US-Russian military cooperation ...
DEBKA file-9 hours ago
Munich Puts Stamp on Tightened US-Russian military cooperation in Syria ... in place since December, when Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin concluded a secret pact for working together to end the Syrian war.
Putin Threatening WWIII over Turkey
PJ Media-20 hours ago
Erdogan did not specifically say Turkey will enter Syria, however. ... That would leave it up to BarackObama, effectively alone, to send in the U.S. Army and ... Sorry wrong century didn't you hear the cold war is over! ... It's been semiclosed to the Warsaw pact since WW2. and was totally closed to Russia ...
Russia: National Security and Cooperation With the Zionist Empire ...
Al-Jazeerah.info-Feb 10, 2016
Apart from the crisis in Ukraine and Syria, Russian strategists have to plan a “Third ... its muscles as its air space is theoretically being protected by US war planes. ... Litvinenko publicly accused his superiors in the secret service, FSB, of murder. ... The claim was that Putin “murders his opponents in Russia.
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Assertive Russia Looms Large At Annual Munich Security Conference by support@pangea-cms.com (Steve Gutterman)
The war in Syria, the refugee crisis and Russia’s border-bending interference on Europe’s eastern edge topped the agenda as senior officials gathered in Munich, Germany, for a high-profile annual security conference.
Humanitarian aid would be delivered to besieged cities within days, and the cease-fire would go into effect in a week, American and Russian officials announced.
Experts working to halt the spread of the Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses face a wily foe in Aedes aegypti, the main mosquito that transmits them, and some methods for fighting them are stirring controversy.
Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill has arrived in Havana on the eve of a historic meeting with the Pope Francis, the head of the Catholic Church.
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 Reuters |
Russia raises specter of interminable or 'world war' if Syria talks fail
Reuters MUNICH Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev raised the specter of an interminable or a world war if powers failed to negotiate an end to the conflict in Syria and warned against any ground operations by U.S. and Arab forces. Medvedev, speaking to ... Russia threatens permanent world war if Saudis add ground troops to US coalitionWashington Times Russia: Syria Conflict Could Result In A 'New World War'Daily Caller Russia PM warns foreign offensive in Syria could spark 'world war'Yahoo News Thomson Reuters Foundation all 51 news articles » |
A plan has been agreed for a "nationwide cessation" of violence in Syria in a week's time, says US Secretary of State John Kerry.
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Humanitarian aid would be delivered to besieged cities within days, and the cease-fire would go into effect in a week, American and Russian officials announced.
Major Powers Agree to Cessation of Hostilities in Syriaby webdesk@voanews.com (Pamela Dockins)
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says major powers meeting in Munich to discuss the situation in war-torn Syria have agreed to a nationwide cessation of hostilities to begin in one week’s time. Kerry told reporters early Friday in Munich that the cessation of hostilities will not apply to terrorist groups, including Islamic State, al-Nusra and others. He said the 17-nation International Syria Support Group has agreed that a task force co-chaired by the U.S. and Russia will work to...
Diplomats trying to secure a ceasefire for the civil war in Syria fell short in organizing an immediate truce but agreed to try to work out details and implement a temporary “cessation of hostilities” in the coming week.
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Taliban Battle Leads to Kabul Blackoutby webdesk@voanews.com (Rahim Sarwan, Noor Zahid)
Millions of residents in the bitterly cold Afghan capital Kabul have been living mostly without power for the last two weeks as critical grid line from neighboring Uzbekistan has been cut off. The Afghan government blames Taliban attacks for the disruption in the power supply. Taliban insurgents blew up two power pylons in the Dand-e-Shahabuddin area in the strategic northeastern province of Baghlan after security forces launched a massive operation against the Taliban, Afghan officials say. The Taliban denied responsibility for destroying power lines and blame Afghan government forces. The state-owned utility company Da Afghanistan Breshna Shirkat (DABS) has not been able to repair the pylons as the military offensive is still going on, DABS officials say. “We cannot give this assurance [time frame for towers' repair]. Security forces should give this assurance as to when they may clear the area,” a spokesperson for DABS told VOA. “Once allowed, we could repair the pylons within eight hours.” About 60 percent of the electrical supply to the city has been cut. The power shortage has not only plunged large swathes of Kabul into darkness, but it has also curtailed the operations of most government departments. Kabul’s passport department, which receives thousands of applications every day, has seen the number of passports issued decrease by 500 daily. “Customers have to wait for hours,” Sayed Omar Sabour, the head of the passport department told VOA. “I have been waiting for two weeks to get a passport,” a customer told VOA. “What kind of a country is this? This is the capital of the country which is supposed to have power around the clock.” Electricity is the most affordable source of heat and power for cooking for Kabul's estimated five million residents.
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Business Insider |
Russia is making a huge effort to challenge US influence in Iraq
Business Insider Russia is ready to sell civil airliners to Iraq and keep providing it with military aid to fight Islamic State, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Thursday, accompanied on a trip to Baghdad by the biggest Russian delegation in years. The ... Russia, Iraq Sign Roadmap for Development of Relations - Russia's Deputy PMSputnik International all 71 news articles » |
New York Times |
Defending Europe Against Russia
New York Times By identifying Russia as the top national security threat to the United States, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter is blatantly provoking a country that should be the chief ally of the United States in the fight against Islamic extremism. Mr. Carter's ... Russian Media See NATO 'Beachhead' Near Russia's BordersRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty U.S. Pledges ISIS Progress in Weeks; Russia Thinks OtherwiseU.S. News & World Report Attn. Vladimir Putin: US and NATO beef up defenses on Russian borderMashable Vox -RT -ABC Online all 1,607 news articles » |
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has warned of the possibility of a permanent or "world war" if a resolution of the Syrian conflict is not found and U.S. and Arab ground forces get involved in the conflict.
 Росбалт.RU |
Патриарх Кирилл и папа римский согласовали текст совместной декларации
Росбалт.RU Патриарх Кирилл и папа римский Франциск согласовали совместную декларацию, которую подпишут в ходе встречи в Гаване 12 февраля, сообщает «Интерфакс» со ссылкой на главу синодального отдела внешних церковных связей митрополита Волоколамского Илариона. «Текст ... Иларион: согласована декларация папы римского и патриарха КириллаРИА Новости Патриарх Кирилл вылетел на КубуРоссийская Газета Патриарх Кирилл вылетел в ГавануNEWSru.com Газета.Ru -ТАСС -РБК Все похожие статьи: 1 085 » |
As US and its allies cling to hopes of a settlement, Russian president is changing facts on the ground – like he did in Ukraine
In the fog of Syria’s war, one thing appears clear: Russia is running rings around the US and its allies, militarily and diplomatically. While Washington clings to hopes of a negotiated settlement, Vladimir Putin is changing facts on the ground, just as he did in Ukraine in 2014.
It’s Putin’s game. And, so far, he’s winning.
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Владимир Путин высоко оценил действия личного состава, подчеркнув, что «военнослужащие подтверждают свою готовность надежно обеспечить безопасность России на юго-западном стратегическом направлении, включая полуостров Крым».
 The Moscow Times (registration) |
Russia Sends Medvedev to Munich Seeking Sanctions Relief
The Moscow Times (registration) At last year's Munich Security Conference, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov took to the stage to defend Russia's actions in Ukraine. Scheduled between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the U.S. vice president, Lavrov faced a tough sell. He did his best ... Russia not to lift embargo on Western food products — deputy PMTASS all 17 news articles » |
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has filed a lawsuit against President Vladimir Putin, according to a post on Navalny's blog Thursday.
Can Russia's ruling party restore its reputation ahead of the elections?
Russia Beyond the Headlines The federal election campaign in 2011 was the least successful to date for United Russia, which saw its reputation tainted by accusations of vote-rigging and fraud. How is Russia's ruling party preparing for the upcoming elections in 2016 and can it ... and more » |
LIVE UPDATES: Russian opposition leader Mikhail Kasyanov has been attacked for the second time this month as he traveled to meet with reporters.
Welcome to our column, Russia Update, where we will be closely following day-to-day developments in Russia, including the Russian government’s foreign and domestic policies.
The previous issue is here.
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Россия - НАТО: обострение. В гостях военные эксперты Григорий Трофимчук, Александр Гольц, Юрий Бутусов
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President Obama's attempt to grant a special visa waiver to Iranians who hold passports from other countries as well plays into the hands of Tehran, experts told Congress on Wednesday, saying the regime relies on exactly those dual-passport holders for its terrorism and weapons plans.
Republicans in Congress have accused ...
ABC News |
Kurdish Fighters Capture Military Air Base in Northern Syria
ABC News In this photo released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, Syrians gather in a street that was hit by shelling, in the predominantly Christian and Armenian neighborhood of Suleimaniyeh, Aleppo, Syria, April 11, 2015. Russia has proposed a March 1, ... Syrian Kurdish forces said to capture most of rebel-held former militaryairportReuters UK Arab states' military support needed to avoid defeat, says Syrian oppositionThe Guardian all 5,584 news articles » |
Carter brings together anti-ISIS coalition members to drive for more support.
February 11, 2016, 7:14 PM (IDT)
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has just named Nadav Argaman next director of the Shin Bet domestic security service, after Yoram Cohen. Argaman currently serves as deputy director.
developing...
By letting Putin get away with whatever he likes in Syria, Obama has created a deeply dangerous situation.
Relations between Russia and Turkey have been dismal since late November, when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian bomber on the border with Syria, killing its pilot. That began a war of wordsbetween Moscow and Ankara that ought to concern everyone, since the former has several thousand nuclear weapons and the latter is a member of NATO.
Kremlin propaganda against Ankara has increased of late, setting the stage for further confrontation. As I explained here last week, Russian media outlets initially blamed the Sinai crash of Metrojet 9268 last autumn on the Islamic State, an atrocity which killed 224 innocents, nearly all of them Russians—a quite plausible claim. However, the Kremlin has abruptly shifted course and now blames the mass murder on Turkish ultranationalist terrorists, without any evidence provided to support that explosive assertion.
Where things may be going between Russia and Turkey, ancient enemies who have warred many times over the centuries, was evidenced this week, when the Kremlin announced large-scale surprise military exercises in the regions of the country that are close to Turkey. Troops were moved to full combat readiness, the last stage before a shooting war, with Sergei Shoygu, the Russian defense minister, announcing on TV: “We began our surprise check of the military preparedness in the Southwest strategic direction.”
Read the rest at the New York Observer …
Filed under: Radicalism, Strategy, USG
JERUSALEM—More than half of Syria’s population has been swept up by the country’s civil war in the past five years—either killed, wounded or displaced, according to a report by the Syrian Center for Policy Research.
Some 400,000 Syrians, soldiers and civilians, have been killed as a direct result of military action, the report said, and another 70,000 died as a result of poor health care in the ravaged country, shortage of medicine and food and lack of access to clean water. In addition, 1.9 million persons have been wounded. Together, these casualties make up 11.5 percent of Syria’s pre-war population of some 22 million.
Additionally, most of the country’s capital, infrastructure and institutions have been “almost totally destroyed.” The report, soon to be released, was made available to the Guardian.
The casualty figures given in the report are almost double those published by the United Nations last August, which gave the number of dead as “over 250,000.” The UN report put the number of displaced Syrians at 12 million, which includes those who have become refugees in foreign countries.
The displaced figure has gone up sharply in the past week following intensive Russian bombing of the major city of Aleppo. Turkish officials said yesterday that 50,000 residents of the city have reached the Turkish border seeking shelter. If bombing destroys the entire city, the officials said, the figure could rise by 1.5 million. Aleppo is still home to two million people but water supply and other necessities are endangered.
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergy Lavrov were to meet in Munich today following a reported Russian proposal to set March 1 for a ceasefire in Syria. A UN diplomatic source said that Russia was “stringing Kerry along” to achieve diplomatic cover for ensuring that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wins the war and does not have to compromise at the negotiating table.
European countries are anxious for a swift resolution of the Syrian tragedy in order to head off continued flooding of the continent with war refugees. With the arrival of spring, the Mediterranean becomes calmer, making it easier for migrants to make the boat journey from Turkey to Greek islands. Some analysts suggest that the Russian bombing is intended to spur further Syrian emigration in order to win international recognition of Russia’s claims on the Ukraine in return for Moscow calling off its air force in Syria.
Life expectancy in Syria, for those who manage to stay alive, has declined from 70 before the conflict to 55.4 years. Forty-five percent of the pre-war population has been forced to move—6.3 million to new locations within Syria and four million who have fled overseas. Some 14 million Syrians have lost their livelihood and damage to the country’s economy during the protracted conflict is estimated by the UN to be $255 billion.
The UN Refugee Agency this week published figures showing that 900,000 Syrians applied for asylum in Europe between April 2011 and December 2015. Nearly two thirds of these applications were made in Germany and Serbia and nearly a third in Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Austria.
The post More Than Half of Syria’s Population Has Been Killed, Wounded, or Displaced by Civil Warappeared first on Washington Free Beacon.
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President Barack Obama sent Congress this week a defense budget request that reflects his lame-duck status.
February 11, 2016, 9:33 PM (IDT)
The dickering for a compromise on a ceasefire in Syria has not shaken the Obama-Putin pact which gives Russian the leading military role in the conflict. The ceasefire lines will reflect the US and Russian lines east and west respectively of the Euphrates River.
February 11, 2016, 9:33 PM (IDT)
US and Russian bombardments of ISIS targets have petered out in Syria, heavily outnumbered by intense Russian sorties for wiping out rebel resistance. The US-led operation to destroy ISIS in Libya is also on ice, as former Libyan generals join up with the Islamic State.
Israel has appointed a new head of its shadowy Shin Bet internal security agency.
Turkey, Israel Move Toward a Rapprochementby webdesk@voanews.com (Dorian Jones)
There is growing evidence that Turkey and Israel may be on the brink of a historic handshake Both sides recalled their ambassadors after Israeli security forces killed nine Turks who were trying to break Israel’s sea blockade of Gaza in 2010. The latest diplomatic efforts come as Ankara increasingly finds itself isolated in the region over its support for Syrian rebels. Turkish and Israeli media reported that the two sides held a high level diplomatic meeting this week on the...
Rebels in Aleppo are laying plans to withstand a siege by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in the likelihood the regime cuts a final main supply line running west of the city. They vow a siege will not be over quickly. But their plans are not being helped by squabbles breaking out among insurgent commanders.
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A look at what's next for the major players in Syria's warby By The Associated Press
The U.S., Russia and more than a dozen other countries met Thursday in Munich to discuss halting the fighting in Syria, while forces of President Bashar Assad are making some of their biggest gains against the opposition....
MUNICH (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev raised the specter of a permanent or a world war if powers failed to negotiate an end to the conflict in Syria and warned against any ground operations by U.S. and Arab forces.
The attacker opened fire in a building in southern Saudi Arabia. The Interior Ministry described it a “criminal” act, suggested it was unrelated to terrorism.
Puerto Rico’s government is trying to convince hundreds of wealthy investors to move to the U.S. territory, hoping they could help lift it out of a deepening economic crisis.
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Russia is ready to sell civil airliners to Iraq and keep providing it with military aid to fight Islamic State, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Thursday, accompanied on a trip to Baghdad by the biggest Russian delegation in years.
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might meet in Washington next month and complete a deal on future defense aid to Israel that has been dogged by disagreement, the U.S. ambassador to Israel said on Thursday.
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