This Day in History: Sept. 11, 2001 by DIA History Office
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This Day in History: Sept. 11, 2001 by DIA History Office
On Sept. 11, 2001, a mild, sunny, morning in New York City and Washington, D.C., Al-Qaeda terrorists
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US Drops Charges That Professor Shared Technology With China
New York Times WASHINGTON — When the Justice Department arrested the chairman of Temple University's physics department this spring and accused him of sharing sensitive American-made technology with China, prosecutors had what seemed like a damning piece of ... and more » |
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Beirut, Lebanon — Mounting evidence suggests Russia is significantly increasing military assistance to the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in what is seen as a bid to solidify Moscow’s position in one of few Middle Eastern countries where it still has influence.
The move, analysts say, capitalizes on a low-risk opportunity created by the United States’ reticence to get more closely involved in the Syrian conflict, which has lasted for more than four years and claimed the lives of nearly a quarter million people.
The reports of a Russian military buildup in northwest Syria have raised alarms in Washington. Over the weekend, Secretary of State John Kerry telephoned his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to warn that Russia’s military assistance “could further escalate the conflict.”
On Tuesday, Bulgaria announced it would forbid over-flight rights to Russian aircraft bound for Syria. Greece is mulling a US request to do the same.
In response to the heightened attention toward its moves in Syria, Moscow on Wednesday confirmed the presence of “military specialists” in Syria, but said it was in accord with ongoing “military-technical cooperation with Syria.”
Still, some analysts say Moscow’s ambitions in Syria run much higher than simply fulfilling existing military contracts.
“My view is that this is a strategic move aimed at shoring up the [Assad] regime and giving Moscow more influence on the situation in Syria,” says Jeff White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analyst who now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
US reluctant to become involved
Russian President Vladimir Putin last week admitted that Moscow has provided “serious help” to the Syrian Army. And while he added that a direct military intervention by Russian forces in Syria was “so far premature,” he would not rule out such a move in the future.
The Obama administration has shown reluctance to become heavily involved in Syria’s grueling conflict, limiting its engagement mainly to combating the extremist Islamic State group through air strikes and a faltering program to “train-and-equip” vetted rebel forces. Mr. Putin could seek to capitalize upon Washington’s aversion to another Middle East entanglement to push Russia’s military expansion in Syria, analysts say.
“Russia sees Bashar's continued presence as a powerful rebuke to Washington.... They see nothing in the Obama administration's handling of the Syrian crisis that discourages them from going for it,” says Fred Hof, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
Statements from Moscow downplaying the enhanced military assistance, exploiting the hesitancy of the US administration, and taking advantage of existing Russian military facilities in Syria could "cloak [Russia's] action in ambiguity and slow any US reaction," says Mr. White.
"My sense is that unless the Russians drop a Guards Airborne Division into Idlib, the administration won't do much," he says. "It will study the problem, send Kerry to meet Lavrov, threaten sanctions, and then conclude that what the Russians are doing is really not much different to what they have done in the past, and after all Syria is a sovereign country."
Russian reliance on Assad
Syria’s relationship with Russia reaches back to the Soviet era. Russia continues to operate a small naval depot at Tartus on the Mediterranean coast, one of only two warm water facilities for the Russian Navy.
“Currently, the Russians believe that it’s only Assad that can guarantee the survival of Syria as a state,” says Nikolay Kozhanov, a fellow at the Russia and Eurasia program at the London-based Chatham House and nonresident fellow at Carnegie Moscow Center. “And given the difficult situation on the fronts, definitely the increased [military] supplies is one of the measures taken by the Russians to guarantee his survival.”
The Syrian regime has suffered a series of battlefield setbacks this year, losing ground in the north, east, and south. The extremist Islamic State has carved out a huge swathe of territory in the north and east of the country and is inching closer to Damascus. The Syrian military is showing signs of exhaustion after four years of war, and Damascus is increasingly relying on a network of loyalist militias and foreign Shiite fighters from Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan – all supported by Iran, Assad’s other key ally.
Signs of enhanced Russian military support include Syrian TV footage last week of an advanced Russian armored fighting vehicle, carrying markings and a camouflage pattern not normally found on Syrian Army vehicles, in action against rebel forces in Latakia province. Russian voices in the background are believed to belong to the crew of the vehicle.
Other signs include online pictures of a Russian reconnaissance drone allegedly operating in the skies above Idlib province, and an increase in suspected shipments of Russian weaponry to Syria from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, according to analysts who track maritime traffic. Russian social media sites have carried numerous photographs of Russian soldiers deployed in Syria, not just at the Tartus naval depot but further afield.
Memory of Afghanistan a constraint
Prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people reportedly have been delivered to a military air base at the Basil al-Assad airport, 12 miles south of Latakia in northwest Syria. Agence France Presse quoted US intelligence officials as saying that at least three Russian aircraft have landed at the airport in recent days, two of them giant Antonov 124 cargo planes.
While the heightened activity points to a greater Russian military commitment to the Assad regime, it remains uncertain if it will lead to a sizeable deployment of Russian combat forces. The bloody Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s still resonates in Russia and dims support for foreign military engagements, says Mr. Kozhanov.
“There is a possibility that the Russians would use force, but limited to special operations forces. That’s possible under certain conditions, namely if the situation in Syria continues to deteriorate,” he says.
Still, for now, the US is watching Russia’s moves closely and with unease.
“Key will be how the Russian presence develops,” says White, the former DIA analyst. “Right now, it looks mostly like preparations for expanding Russian facilities … and maybe some force protection.... What comes next is the question.”
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September 8, 2015
Russia’s military involvement in Syria and Ukraine obligates the United States and its European allies to bring the Kremlin back to Earth and recognize that such adventures cannot be sustained indefinitely. Russia simply does not have the money and human resources to do so in view of low oil prices and birth rates. It will find itself increasingly isolated if it supports Syria’s Assad regime and separatists in the Donbas.
Washington has recently
expanded
its anti-Russia sanctions list to include 29 more individuals and 30 companies including some based in Cyprus, Finland, Romania, Switzerland and the UK. These additions will surely be painful for the Kremlin elite and their business allies.
Practically all the new targets are linked to companies headed by friends and allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin: state-controlled oil giant Rosneft, helmed by Igor Sechin; the Russian military-industrial conglomerate Rostec, headed by
Viktor Chemezov
, and companies owned by Gennady Timchenko.
Russia has escalated its involvement in Syria to satisfy Moscow’s ambitions to be an equal partner with the US in Syria and the Middle East. To accomplish that, it gives Syria sophisticated arms to protect Assad and fight ISIS, so that it becomes an “indispensable party” to any final settlement. However, this risks having US and Russian fighter jets clash in the skies over Syria.
Unfortunately, Russia does not recognize that Syria is dead as a nation-state; it is rather a geopolitical corpse. Neither Russia nor Iran can save the Assad regime. So perhaps Russia is trying to secure the Alawi heartland with Tartus and Latakia as its naval bases.
Crimea’s annexation was the first step in Russia’s effort to return to the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. Projection of naval power into Syria is the second step. Next will be an attempt to secure naval bases in Egypt, the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. While Europe is swamped with migrants, Russia is building up a distant perimeter in the Middle East, to stall Islamic State engagement in the North Caucasus, especially in Chechnya and Dagestan.
The West keeps up pressure on the Kremlin in the hope it’ll make Moscow remember the
Minsk II
agreement. Yet judging by Russia’s first reaction, this is a vain hope. Russian assistance keeps flowing to the Donbass “separatists” who pose as innocent victims. Moscow officials, from politician/crooner Yosif Kobzon to TV propaganda chief Dmitry Kiselev complain that they are barred from travelling to Europe.
The Kremlin now looks like a cat stuck up a tree. It doesn’t know how to descend, so it panics and just keeps climbing. Washington and Brussels are trying very hard to coax that cat down. We shall see if sanctions are the way to ensure Russia’s safe descent and de-escalation.
The panic is starting to trickle down to Russia’s political class and especially the financial technocrats, despite all the brave talk on TV. With oil prices hovering between $40 and $50 a barrel, there’s enough money in Russian state reserves for only a couple of years. The graph for the 1998 crisis and the recovery that followed was shaped like the letter “V”. The 2008 crisis was more like the letter “U”, indicating both a slower decline and a slow recovery. The current crisis appears to be an “L” as in a fall the country is unlikely to come back from.
Part of the problem is the Russian elites’ xenophobic, paranoid view of the West. Many of those educated during Soviet times have deeply engrained dislike of Western approaches and institutions. They detest a free press, the rule of law, good governance, and social tolerance, instead embracing and thriving on corruption.
This political rigidity also undermines Russia’s ability to pass structural reforms needed to truly integrate into the modern, global economy. Instead of exporting food, Russia destroys imported meats and cheeses. Instead of inventing medicine, it refuses to import drugs it desperately needs.
Still, the economic slump hurts the Kremlin. Big oil and gas projects, such as the Power of Siberia and the Altai gas pipeline from Siberia to China, were set up when oil traded at $360 per 1,000 cubic meters. Today, Gazprom sells gas to Europe for $220-$250, while Qatar is signing six-year contracts at an even lower price. Newly discovered deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean off the coasts of Israel and Egypt may offer yet another source of gas for Europe.
To boost its energy security, Europe should limit the consumption of Russian energy. Oil futures for 2020 at $60 a barrel are definitely not a good sign for the oil-dependent Russian economy. Yet saying Russia’s economic decline would last through 2017 is an educated good guess. It may hit rock-bottom around the 100th anniversary of the October 1917 Bolshevik coup.
Sadly, instead of enacting effective anti-crisis reforms, Moscow prefers to blame it all on Uncle Sam. The cat in the tree keeps climbing. Hopefully, Western sanctions will help Russia come back to reality, and avoid a tailspin descent into chaos.
Ariel Cohen is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is also Director of the Center for Energy, Natural Resources and Geopolitics at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.
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Obama warns Russia against helping arm Syrian governmentby By JULIE PACE and NATALIYA VASILYEVA
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama warned Russia Friday against doubling down on its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, casting a recent buildup of Russian military equipment and personnel in Syria as an effort to prop up the embattled leader....
Obama warns Russia against helping arm Syrian governmentby JULIE PACE and NATALIYA VASILYEVA
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama warned Russia Friday against doubling down on its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, casting a recent buildup of Russian military equipment and personnel in Syria as an effort to prop up the embattled leader.
"The strategy they're pursuing right now of doubling down ...
What Is Hybrid Conflict? by Benjamin Wittes
I spent a day and half this week at the Pentagon at a remarkable symposium on so-called "hybrid conflicts" organized by the office of the legal adviser to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The conference took place under Chatham House rules, so I'm constrained in describing the proceedings in any detail, but as it will be of particular interest to Lawfare readers, I will do the best I can. (In addition, I recorded an episode of the Lawfare Podcast yesterday with the joint staff's legal adviser, Brigadier General Richard Gross on both the subject of hybrid conflict and the symposium. I will post that next week.)
The impetus for the conference, as General Gross explains in the podcast, is that the Pentagon's senior leadership has increasingly begun discussing conflicts in terms of this idea of "hybrid conflict"—which is to say conflicts that involve both elements of state-to-state conflict and non-state actors. Pentagon lawyers were looking for input into and discussion on how this idea maps onto existing legal structures. The laws of war, after all, don't have a "hybrid" category. There's international armed conflict (IAC) and non-international armed conflict (NIAC).
The trouble is that officers don't tend to think in those terms. As one participant in the conference quipped, he'd heard military non-lawyers use the term NIAC frequently, but only ever in asking a lawyer the question, "What is a NIAC?" Military planners think in the language of counter-insurgency, in the language of civil war, in the language of state-to-state conflict, and increasingly, they think in the language of this idea of hybrid conflict.
So, the symposium asked, what should lawyers do with this idea? Is it really new? And does the law need to adjust somehow to deal with it?
To discuss these issues, the joint staff brought together a remarkable collection of high-level government officials (four agency general counsels, for example), civilian and military lawyers from around the government, several prominent academics, and legal representatives of a number of allied governments. It was an unusually interesting discussion with an unusually interesting group.
My own sense, as I suggested in my brief remarks at the event, is that most of what's being described under the rubric of hybrid conflict isn't really new and doesn't pose serious challenges to the law, certainly not to the basic frameworks associated with International Humanitarian Law (IHL). But there are a few areas, mostly related to the cyber domain, that are new and do pose more fundamental challenges. I don't think that these challenges are primarily challenges to IHL, however. They are, rather, challenges in other areas of international law and, more pointedly, in domestic law.
Allow me to explain:
As I listened to the presenters at the symposium, I noticed a number of different threads embedded within the phrase "hybrid conflict," some more novel than others. Some people used the term to describe mixed conflicts that involve both state and non-state actors. For example, Yemen and Syria both currently involve substate actors, but they also involve foreign governments intervening. There is nothing new about this sort of mess at all. Countries have intervened in fractured states for a long time, creating muddles of parties fighting one another (think of the breakup of Yugoslavia, to cite only one example). And sometimes, the application of IHL to these situations can be complicated. But the problem seems neither novel nor a particularly challenge to the IHL framework.
Other speakers cited as examples of hybrid conflict China's use of civilian fishing boats, backed up by naval forces, to assert sovereign claims in the South China Sea or Russia's use of local civilians—in combination with its own disguised troops—to take Ukrainian territory. Again, this seems to me relatively old hat, at least conceptually. Those who remember the way the United States settled the West or took Florida or Hawaii will not find anything too unusual about the use of civilians to stake out claims and the subsequent use of military might to defend those claims and incorporate territory. More recently, think of the way Germany used ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland to take that territory from Czechoslovakia in 1938 or the way Russia has behaved towards both Georgia and Moldova. This sort of thing just isn't new.
Still other speakers talked about non-state groups, ISIS most prominently, that claim statehood or that control territory in a statelike fashion. Hamas in Gaza, to some degree, also fits this description. Yet again, I'm not sure this poses any particular challenge to IHL in its fundamentals. One has to decide, of course, whether to recognize a claim of statehood, and which type of conflict law governs a situation will follow that judgment. But IHL has no basic problem with the question of what obligations bind ISIS to if it is, in fact, a real state. Nor are its obligations ambiguous to the extent it is merely a non-state militia.
Finally, one presenter gave a particularly interesting talk about what we might call "layered" conflicts. This speaker talked about how many distinct conflicts were currently taking place in Syria: he counted six but agreed with a questioner that there may be at least two more. One might make a similar argument about Yemen. The talk was, as I say, fascinating, but again, I can think of lots of situations in which conflicts have layered on top of one another. Think only, for example, about how many subsidiary conflicts took place during World War II. Or more recently, think of the Shi'a-Sunni conflict that took place in Iraq during the insurgency while the country had US forces in it, US forces who had come as part of a state-to-state conflict with the then-Iraqi government, whose remnants then became parts of the insurgency. And think in that context of Iran's role providing granular support to Shi'a militias in conflict both with Sunni forces and US forces.
So what is really new in this idea of hybrid conflict? As far as I can tell, the answer is all about cyber.
One presenter noted the following operational scenario: Operators detect incoming malicious network traffic; they identify civilians behind it; but they have no idea if those civilians are working with or for a government. One might add that they also may not know whether this malicious traffic rises to the level of any kind of attack, let alone an armed attack for purposes of IHL, or whether it is merely espionage. If the latter, it is not prohibited under international law at all.
This opacity of operating environment seems to me genuinely new, particularly when you factor in the sheer volume of such activity and the fact that these situations require responses in network time. One participant described this combination of volume and opacity as so large and so opaque that it induces a paralysis in the response: Officials don't know what incoming traffic is, so they don't know what law to apply, so they don't apply any law and do nothing. The result, he said, was a kind of "lawlessness."
It's a terrifying statement, but it's not a deficiency in the laws of war. In fact, what struck me at the conference was that nearly everything that seemed novel here was really less about IHL than about the regulation of new technologies, both under international law and under domestic law. ISIS, after all, is not the first militia group in the world to try to recruit a lot of foreign fighters. Remember when Republican Spain attracted anti-fascists from all over, including the famous Abraham Lincoln Brigades from the United States?
The difference between then and now is really ISIS's contemporary ability through Twitter to reach into other countries and recruit followers, and using encrypted chat systems, then to communicate securely with those recruits. This difference does not reflect problems with the application of IHL to hybrid conflicts. It is, rather, the problem that Jim Comey and Apple are fighting about.
Similarly, the problem of opacity in real time—which is, indeed, a very big problem—doesn't strike me as a problem in IHL either so much as an informational problem and perhaps a problem of authorization to act in the face of doubt as to what law applies.
I left the conference wanting to have another one on "Law and Security in Network Time."
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He visited Ferguson, Missouri, where unarmed teen Michael Brown was shot last summer. Carson talked with CBS News' Major Garrett in Ferguson
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The epic short squeeze in oil futures last week that was telegraphed as the biggest surge in 25 years is only that - a short squeeze. So far, it looks like what happened in oil futures at the very end of January, when we had a similar three-day surge, point-wise. Percentage-wise, last week's surge was larger, but that is only because it comes from a much lower base - we took out those January lows long ago.
Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
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· · · ·
Russia to US: talk to us on Syria or risk 'unintended incidents'
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Russian Planes Transport Weapons, Humanitarian Aid to Syria, Moscow Says
Wall Street Journal - Sep 10, 2015
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REPORT: Small Number Of Russian Troops Join Combat In Syria
Huffington Post - Sep 9, 2015
The U.S. officials, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the intent of Russia's military moves in Syria remained unclear. One of the officials said initial indications suggested the focus was on preparing an airfield near the port city of ...
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Intel official: Russia 'co-leading' Syrian war
As the Pentagon warily eyes a Russian military build-up in Syria, Western intelligence sources tell Fox News that the escalated Russian presence began just days after a secret Moscow meeting in late July between Iran's Quds Force commander -- their chief exporter of terror -- and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Fox News has learned Quds head Qassem Soleimani and Putin discussed such a joint military plan for Syria at that meeting, an encounter first reported by Fox News in early August.
"The Russians are no longer advising, but co-leading the war in Syria," one intelligence official said.
The Quds Force is the international arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, involved in exporting terrorism to Iran's proxies throughout the Middle East including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Intelligence sources told Fox News that -- in addition to the previously reported arrival of nearly 50 Russian marines, 100 housing units and armored vehicles delivered by a stream of massive Antonov-124 Condor military transport aircraft and two Russian landing ships in Syria -- the Russians have delivered aviation, intelligence and communications facilities to deploy a powerful offensive force.
Officials who have monitored the build-up say they've seen more than 1,000 Russian combatants -- some of them from the same plainclothes Special Forces units who were sent to Crimea and Ukraine. Some of these Russian troops are logistical specialists and needed for security at the expanding Russian bases.
"Imagine how the Americans came to Iraq and Afghanistan. It's the same kind of build-up. They bring everything, they build everything they need," the intelligence official said.
The shadowy Iranian commander Soleimani visited Moscow from July 24-26 -- just 10 days after the nuclear deal was announced, despite a travel ban and U.N. Security Council resolutions barring him from leaving Iran. He met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Putin to discuss arms deals. But Fox News has since learned that the Russian and Iranian leaders were also discussing a new joint military plan to strengthen Syrian President Bashar Assad, a plan that is now playing out with the insertion of Russian forces in Syria.
There are indications that Soleimani is not only involved in the Russian build-up in Syria, but may be leading the operation, though he has not been seen in Syria recently.
The Russians want to protect their interests in Syria. When the Syrian civil war began in 2011, the Russians had $4 billion in outstanding arms contracts with the Syrian government. The Russian Navy has maintained a base in Syria since the 1970s. This week, an image also surfaced purporting to show Nusra Front fighters standing by a Russian-supplied aircraft at a captured Syrian air base.
U.S. defense sources tell Fox News that most of Russia's heavy military equipment has arrived by sea onboard Russian amphibious transport ships. Those ships began arriving in the Syrian port of Tartous in recent days. U.S. officials have confirmed a total of eight military cargo planes from Russia landed in the past few days outside Latakia, a port city on the Mediterranean, becoming an almost daily occurrence.
Onboard those vessels: Russian armored vehicles, tanks, helicopters, unmanned drones that can be armed and used for intelligence gathering. Western intelligence sources also confirm that the Russians have sent a mobile air traffic control system, communication/listening units, and pre-built housing units.
Fox News has learned that the Russian units include members of the Airborne Rifle brigade, the equivalent of U.S. Army Rangers.
The reason that the Iranians are increasingly concerned about Assad's future is that they do not want a situation in which the Islamic State makes its way to Lebanon unchallenged, posing a threat to Iran's proxy Hezbollah, according Western sources. This makes the Iranians natural allies of the Russians.
Iran, these sources say, wants Syria to serve as its buffer zone between ISIS and Hezbollah.
Few think Russia's military build-up denotes an intent by Russia to join the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition. Despite downplaying the reports last week, the State Department and Pentagon are now so concerned by Russia's presence that Secretary of State John Kerry called his Russian counterpart twice this week to express his misgivings about the escalating conflict.
Jennifer Griffin currently serves as a national security correspondent for FOX News Channel . She joined FNC in October 1999 as a Jerusalem-based correspondent.
Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews
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Turkey to Lift Curfew in Kurdish Majority Cityby webdesk@voanews.com (Kokab Farshori)
Turkey said Friday said it would lift a week-long curfew in a southeastern city imposed to support a military operation against Kurdish rebels that has also fueled fears of a possible humanitarian crisis. The curfew in Cizre, in place since September 4, will end on Saturday at 7:00 am (0400 GMT), said the statement from Sirnak regional governor Ali Ihsan Su. The operation against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants had sparked concern for Cizre's inhabitants, with reports of...
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Maryland County Repeals English-Only Ordinanceby webdesk@voanews.com (Deborah Block)
In 2012, Frederick County, Maryland, passed an ordinance requiring that county documents and business be written and conducted in English. Supporters said the measure saved the county money, but opponents said it sent a message to immigrants that they were not wanted. In 2015, the county government reviewed the ordinance. VOA’s Deborah Block describes what happened.
The death toll from an ongoing large-scale security operation by the Egyptian army against Daesh-linked Takfiri militants in the country's violence-wracked Sinai Peninsula has risen to at least 134, Press TV reports.
Iceland's Foreign Ministry confirmed that the US did express interest in the possibility of its military assets returning to Iceland.
The Russian defense news website defendingrussia.ru has given insight into the air defense systems that are currently being used by the Syrian army.
Vincent Stewart, director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, told a conference that he found it difficult to envisage the countries emerging intact from the wars they endure.
From overflight requests and grainy photos of fighter jets to social-media posts showing Russian marines in Syria, there are mounting signs that Moscow may be ramping up its military presence in the war-torn Middle East nation.
As Western governments struggle to grasp the extent of Russia's involvement in the Syrian civil war, a more pertinent question is sometimes obscured: What does Russia want?
The answer? As much as it can get.
Like he did when he sent troops to seize Crimea and backed a rebellion in eastern Ukraine after a Moscow-friendly leader's power evaporated in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be taking action in Syria -- and preparing to squeeze as much benefit as he can out of a fluid and chaotic situation.
And as in Ukraine, Russia is likely to test the boundaries and stop when it runs up against one that seems insurmountable -- or at least pause, regroup, and once again reassess its options.
The following is a rundown of the goals Putin may be pursuing, from the most ambitious to the most modest.
Grand Bargain
For years, Russia has called for a shake-up of a global security system it says is badly skewed by the dominance of the United States, and a greater say for Moscow in making new rules. Putin may see the Syria crisis as Russia's best chance to make this happen, trading his country's support in the fight against Islamic State militants for a seat at the table in talks on a new security architecture that would reduce NATO's clout, leave Ukraine neutral, and give Russia a prominent place. Such hopes may be driving his vocal calls for "an international coalition against extremism and terror," and a flurry of diplomacy that has accompanied them.
Thaw
Incensed over Moscow's intervention in Ukraine, Washington and the West are in no mood to give Russia a role building a security system out of the scraps of one they accuse Putin of trying to tear apart. Russia's refusal to abandon support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad makes such a prospect even harder to swallow. A more modest, but still sweeping goal -- Grand Bargain Lite -- would be this: Use Russian support against Islamic State to stoke a thaw in relations with the West, then reap potential benefits ranging from relief from the sanctions imposed over its role in Ukraine to restoration of its seat in what was, until Russia's suspension in 2014, the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations.
Big Bluff
Again, any Russian hopes for a tradeoff may be misplaced: The United States says it does not do such linkages. And suspicions that John Kerry's trip to see Putin in Sochi in May meant a quid pro quo was in the works were quashed when the U.S. secretary of state phoned Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on September 5 to say that rumblings of a Russian buildup were far from a reassuring sign that help against IS militants is on the way. On the contrary, Kerry said, a stepped-up Russian presence could lead to more civilian deaths, create more refugees, and cause "confrontation" with the anti-IS coalition in Syria.
Russia may have expected that response, or even been angling for it. By calling for a coalition against extremism, but insisting that Assad's government is crucial to the battle against IS, Russia could be preparing to throw up its hands theatrically and accuse the United States of being two-faced in the fight against terror -- a claim Putin has made many times in the past. Unless the United States backs down on the issue of Assad, whom Washington wants out, Putin may make it again, with the world watching, when he attends the UN General Assembly this month for the first time in a decade.
Saving Assad
Playing down the reports of a military buildup, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Lavrov told Kerry that Moscow has always supported the Syrian authorities in "their fight against terror." That language has been used by Damascus and echoed by Moscow since early in the Syrian crisis, long before IS militants entered the country, when Assad used government forces to crush pro-democracy protests. Western officials say the real purpose of the weapons and advisers Moscow has sent has been to bolster Assad, who has given Russia its biggest foothold in the Middle East.
The reason for a Russian buildup could be simple: The task of supporting Assad has gotten tougher as his forces have lost ground to IS fighters and an array of other militant and rebel groups, leaving the government in control of a fraction of Syria around Damascus and the Mediterranean coast. That includes Tartus, the port city that hosts Russia's only naval facility in the Mediterranean, and Assad's ancestral homeland in Latakia Province, where media reports have cited U.S. administration officials as saying Russia has sent a portable air-traffic control station and prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people.
Best Of The Worst
Russia has used both military aid and diplomatic maneuvering to keep Assad in power, insisting throughout the crisis that a political solution cannot be conditioned on his exit. That does not mean, however, that Putin hasn't thought about how to preserve Russia's interests if Assad is pushed out. The least ambitious goal of Russia's reported buildup may be just that: a move to maintain a foothold in Syria -- and try to secure a strong say in what comes next -- in the event that Assad is defeated on the battlefield or ousted as part of a peaceful settlement.
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From overflight requests and grainy photos of fighter jets to social-media posts showing Russian marines in Syria, there are mounting signs that Moscow may be ramping up its military presence in the war-torn Middle East nation.
Dagestan is the largest republic of the North Caucasus and, at the same time, the region’s most unstable because of the frequent attacks by the armed Islamic opposition movement. The majority of armed militants in the republic currently operate under the flag of the radical Islamist movement, the Islamic State. After Ramazan Abdulatipov was appointed Dagestan’s governor, Moscow did everything in its power to make sure that relations between the leaders of Chechnya and Dagestan were friendly, unlike relations between the governors of Chechnya and Ingushetia.
Dagestani politicians realize perfectly well that Chechnya is tightly controlled by its authoritarian ruler, Ramzan Kadyrov. Having gained the full support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kadyrov managed to create the image of a stable and prosperous Chechen society. Residents of neighboring republics cannot fail to sense the difference between the governing styles of their own republican leaders and Kadyrov. The flow of funds from the Kremlin allows Chechnya to rebuild roads, bridges, schools, mosques and parks. Most importantly, Dagestanis see that militant attacks are much less frequent in Chechnya than in their republic (Kavpolit.com, February 20). Thus, residents of the republics neighboring Chechnya can see the advantages of the Chechen model of conflict management that is offered by Moscow.
Of course, each republic in the North Caucasus has its own special features. Chechnya did not have a strong clan system like that of Dagestan, hence Moscow easily managed to unite all pro-Moscow forces under Kadyrov’s rule. In Dagestan, Moscow has had to deal with multiple clans that had divergent interests and enjoyed support from large parts of the population. In order to do away with the existing ethnic-based clans in Dagestan, Moscow decided to create a single pro-Moscow clan. Russian authorities removed the Dargin clan from the political scene by sentencing the most influential person in Dagestan in the past two decades, Makhachkala Mayor Said Amirov, to life in prison (Mk.ru, August 10).
Amirov’s fate should have served as a lesson to the other politicians in the republic. When they failed to grasp what Moscow wanted from them, Russian authorities decided to move on to other figures who opposed Moscow’s current protégé, Ramzan Kadyrov (Kommersant, July 29). The arrest of former mayor Amirov, the prosecution of Olympic wrestling champion and former head of the Dagestani Branch of the Pension Fund of Russia Sagid Murtazaliev, and a police raid on the home of the speaker of Dagestan’s parliament, Khizri Shihsaidov (Kavkazsky Uzel, August 2), indicate that Moscow is not simply signaling its preferences, but forcing all local officials to submit to the current leader of the republic, Abdulatipov.
In exchange for suppressing the influence of the Dagestani clans, Moscow is prepared to allocate substantial funds to support the republican economy. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev issued a decree providing Dagestan with about $2 billion in additional funding (Kp.ru, September 5). Dagestan will receive the extra funds over the period from 2016 to 2025. Moscow is prepared to pump large amounts of resources into the republic to pacify it and lessen the impact of rebel activities.
Initially, Dagestani authorities replicated the Chechen experience, setting up local armed units that would gradually replace federal units in combatting the armed Islamic opposition (Ansar.ru,November 22, 2010). This, however, did not work in Dagestan. The republican armed groups did not replace the Russian government’s militarized units and never participated to any significant extent in fighting the rebels. Abdulatipov supported Kadyrov by stating that the Russian authorities had to consult regional authorities when carrying out counterterrorist operations (Rbc.ru, April 28). Abdulatipov seemed to be trying to grab more power for himself, but in reality did not cross the boundaries of what is permitted by Moscow. The big difference between Ramazan Abdulatipov and Ramzan Kadyrov is that Vladimir Putin does not regard the current governor of Dagestan as his undisputed favorite protégé in the republic.
In an effort to emulate Chechnya, Dagestani authorities sometimes blindly replicate Chechen policies in order to catch up with their neighbor. For example, Ramzan Kadyrov’s policy of putting pressure on the relatives of rebels did not go unnoticed in Dagestan. In Untsukul district alone, Dagestani authorities have dismissed dozens of employees who were residents of the villages of Gimry and Balakhani simply because they were distantly related to active rebels. It should be noted that the jamaats in these villages have endured numerous counterterrorist operations (Novayagazeta.livejournal.com, August 8). The people who were sacked from their positions are regarded as outcasts by the authorities. This method of neutralizing the influence of the rebels is unlikely to help the government in pursuing its polices. Instead, it could be counterproductive by creating an incentive for the dismissed individuals to go and join rebel groups.
Dagestani authorities are also battling the supporters of radical Islam on the Internet. In Chechnya, Kadyrov normally found out about such individuals and then featured them on Chechen TV. In Dagestan, the authorities are monitoring the Internet to find people who are hostile to Russia (Newsru.com, August 22).
Thus, it increasingly appears that Moscow is trying to replicate the methods used in Chechnya elsewhere in the North Caucasus. However, there is no such figure like Ramzan Kadyrov in Dagestan. Ramzan Abdulatipov is known only for his loyalty and the absence of his own clan support and thus cannot give Moscow anything else. Consequently, this casts doubt on the viability of Moscow’s plans for pursuing a Chechen-like scenario in Dagestan. The success of Moscow’s strategy in Dagestan will depend on how strong the militants of the republic become, rather than anything else.
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The president visits Fort Meade, Md., on Friday for a talk with service members on the 14th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.
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France Opens Doors to Refugeesby webdesk@voanews.com (Lisa Bryant)
As Europe continues to bicker over sheltering tens of thousands of refugees fleeing conflict, public opinion in France has changed in favor of the Iraqis and Syrians who are beginning to arrive. France has pledged to take in more than 24,000 refugees over the next two years. For a select group of Iraqis and Syrians, the perilous journey by foot, boat, train and bus winds up at the Cergy-Pontoise recreation center located in a suburb of Paris — at least for now. Hundreds are being bussed...
As European countries continue debating how to deal with the influx of refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan and other countries, the situation on the Serbia-Hungary border has been reaching a critical point - with one refugee camp accepting 5,000 migrants within a 24-hour period. VOA's Rade Rankovic spoke with a number of migrants as they prepared to cross into Hungary from Serbia. Robert Raffaele narrates his report.
Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/migrants-serbian-hungary-border/2960188.html
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Germany orders United Airlines flight back over bomb threat
Washington Post BERLIN — German authorities say a United Airlines flight from Frankfurt to San Francisco was ordered back shortly after takeoff because of a bomb threat. A spokesman for the federal police says after the jet returned safely Friday to Frankfurt Airport ... United Flight 902 canceled due to possible 'threat'San Francisco Sun Times all 19 news articles » |
Italy's biggest migrant centre in Sicily, scene of corruption and linked to a brutal murder, has become the focus of a fierce debate over whether the country should open large-scale hotspot camps to process new arrivals and stem the flow of people across the continent.
US House Votes to Reject Iran Nuclear Dealby webdesk@voanews.com (Cindy Saine)
The U.S. House of Representatives voted to reject the international deal with Iran to curb its nuclear weapons Friday, after a morning of emotional debate. Since the Senate held a decisive vote blocking a disapproval measure Thursday, the House vote is largely symbolic. It is intended to send a message to President Barack Obama and his administration, who have pushed hard for the deal in negotiations over the past 18 months. The House held three votes on the Iran deal Thursday and...
The United States announced this week it would take in 10,000 displaced Syrians during the next 12 months. That's a jump from the less than 2,000 allowed in last fiscal year. But many critics say the United States can do much more. VOA’s Bernard Shusman reports from New York.
Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/us-criticized-on-refugee-crisis/2960176.html
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