Today's Headlines and Commentaryby Elina Saxena, Cody M. Poplin
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Today's Headlines and Commentaryby Elina Saxena, Cody M. Poplin
Today marks the 14th anniversary of 9/11, and before we dive into the latest news, we pause to remember those lost fourteen years ago, and to say thank you to all those who work daily to craft thoughtful security solutions. We are grateful, and we remember.
President Obama celebrated a major victoryyesterday, as Senate Democrats blocked a resolution of disapproval on the Iran nuclear deal. Even so, the New York Times reports that challenges remain, as the president must now decide how to navigate enforcing the remaining economic sanctions on the country. Despite the deal’s easing of sanctions for Iran's restricting its nuclear development, Obama has promised to maintain sanctions that target Tehran’s support for terrorism and its human rights abuses. Some in Congress have called for even more terrorism related sanctions, while another proposal would officially designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps a foreign terrorist organization. Others plan to extend the existing nuclear sanctions, allowing President Obama to waive them, but signalling that Iran is not trusted and that punitive measures could quickly be reapplied. The Times also provides answers to questions regarding the next steps required for bringing the deal into effect.
Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Philip Gordon reflects on how the deal "is on the cusp of changing history" given its potential impact on U.S.-Iran relations, optimistically comparing the deal to Nixon’s 1972 visit to China. Politico also carries a reportdetailing Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's campaign to win favor for the deal among House Democrats.
Foreign Policy discussesRepublican reaction to the deal and how the battle over its implementation will be an important factor in shaping the Republican response. According to the Washington Post,House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has promised that House Republicans plan to “use every tool at our disposal to stop, slow and delay this agreement from being fully implemented,” foreshadowing a potential lawsuit against President Obama, in which Republicans allege that he did not hold up his end of the bargain under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act because “secret-side deals” with the IAEA are still outstanding.
In other Iran related news, the U.S. military has once (that’s twice this week) revised the number of American soldiers killed in Iraq by Iran. Lawmakers had previously said that roughly 500 U.S. troops were killed by Iran; the Pentagon has now confirmed that number, saying that while 196 troops were killed by Iranian IEDs, another 300 were killed by other types of “Iranian activities.” Defense One hasmore.
As videos of Russian troops training in their Syrian naval base in Tartous surface, the Washington Post asks why Russian forces are in Syria and looks at Russia’s historic support for the Assad regime. The build up is troubling, if only because Defense One reports that NATO was “caught surprised” by Russia’s actions due to a dearth of intelligence that left officials with no clear idea about the motives or composition of the Russian forces.
And despite Russia’s active history of backing Assad, Al Jazeera questions why Moscow is taking a more assertive stance now, after over four years of conflict in Syria. According to a Fox News report,the escalated Russian presence followed soon after a secret meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, where they discussed a joint military plan for Syria. Experts claim that Russia’s determination to ensure the survival of the regime combined with its interest in fighting ISIS have pushed Russia to ramp up efforts.
Russia also called on other global powers to support the Syrian army with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisting that ISIS cannot be defeated exclusively by airstrikes; instead, he maintains that cooperation with Assad’s forces is the best hope in the fight against the Islamic State. Lavrovcontinues to deny rumours of the increase in troop presence, stating that any cargo shipments are part of traditional aid. As Putin moves further from pursuing a diplomatic solution in Syria, U.S. officials are scrambling to develop a response to the buildup of Russian forces and equipment in Latakia.
On the gound, the BBC reports that the United States has discovered at least four incidents where the Islamic State has used mustard agents in Iraq and Syria. Officials have suggested that the group is manufacturing its own mustard agent in a chemical weapons research cell, claiming that the mustard agent was used in powder form packed into traditional explosives. In related news, Russiahas relaxed its objections to a United Nations probe seeking to determine the perpetrator of chemical weapons attacks in Syria.
Amid concerns from the Council of Europe's human rights commissioner over the indiscriminate use of force, Reuters outlines the dramatic escalation of violence in Turkey as urban attacks by Kurdish militants ricochet throughout the southwest and Turkish fighters continue bombing PKK targets in Iraq. The Financial Times also highlights growing concerns that urban violence in the country could become the norm in light of recent attacks. FT discusses the growing rift between Turkish political leadership too, as the opposition People's Democratic party, or HDP, comes under attack fromPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who claims that the party is “in league with terrorists.”
The Wall Street Journal discusseshow China’s vulnerability is highlighted by Islamic State's kidnapping of a Chinese hostage. With an increasing number of Chinese expats and tourists being kidnapped and with ISIS’ unpredictable treatment of hostages, the Chinese government is at an impasse regarding its response.
Yesterday, British ambassador to the UN Matthew Rycroft defended the August drone strike which killed two British citizens, citing the "collective self-defence of Iraq" in light of the Islamic State’s ongoing operations in Iraq as justification for the controversial strike.
The United States is set to take in 10,000 Syrian refugees over the next year as Europe continues to face challenges in dealing with the influx of displaced persons from the region. Over the weekend, Germany alone admitted 20,000 migrants and is expected to grant entry to as many as 800,000 over the course of the year. Eying the Hungarian border fence, Macedonia is considering one it its own, designed to keep migrants from entering the country. Citing the need for "some kind of physical defense to reduce illegal border crossings," Macedonia's Foreign Minister said that the country is will use either a border fence or soldiers.
UN aid workers describe the poverty and hardship that faces Syrian refugees in the Middle east, with the Guardian reporting that Syrian refugees in neighboring Jordan and Lebanon are considering returning to their war-torn country as opposed to enduring the destitute conditions.
In light of recent evidence pointing to the politicization of intelligence reports by senior officials,the Associated Press describes Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s message to senior intelligence officers demanding unaltered and accurate reports. With senators investigating the allegations of doctored ISIS related intelligence reports, the Guardian suggests that Director of National Intelligence James Clapper has been involved “in frequent and unusual contact with a military intelligence officer at the center of a growing scandal over rosy portrayals of the war against the Islamic State.”
Care for a wake-up call? In Politico, terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman argues that 14 years after 9/11, U.S. counterterrorism efforts are failing, citing the spread of the Islamic State as well as the increase in high-casualty terrorist attacks in recent years as evidence.
Foreign Policy sheds light on the difficulties in the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia, pointing to concerns over the Wahhabism that continues to grip the state and fuel extremism. In an interview with Quartz, Reza Aslan explains that ISIS is engaged in a "war of imagination," contributing to the difficulty faced by states attempting to defeat the group through conventional weapons and warfare.
The Pentagon announced plans to increase troop deployment to the Sinai Peninsula as the region is increasingly threatened by the Islamic State. The troops will join the traditionally lightly armed Multinational Force and Observers who have become increasingly threatened by ISIS attacks.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai claimed that al Qaeda in Afghanistan is a myth and expressed doubt about their existence in the past as well as their participation in the 9/11 attacks. But as Karzai doubts, Afghanistan burns. Following the fall of 65 villages in the Raghistan district and the reported collapse of the district to the Taliban, Afghan media outlet Tolo News reports that Afghan airstrikes have pushed the Taliban forces from the district bazar, killing 30 militants in the process.
And, the Washington Post reports thatsome officials now fear that the CIA missed an opportunity to identify Warren Wainstein, a western hostage being held by al Qaeda in Pakistan, before he was eventually killed in a drone strike earlier this year. The CIA is currently conducting an internal review of Weinstein’s death, including whether everything possible was done to find him. One grainy drone feed appears to show a heavily guarded figure, but U.S. officials have emphasized that the drone footage is so inconclusive that even now it is not clear whether the individual was even a hostage.
In a decision that took over a year to write,an Indian judge has found 12 defendants guilty of murder and criminal conspiracy for their involvement in the 2006 bombings of seven Mumbai commuter trains. The attacks killed 188 people and wounded over 800 others.
Yesterday, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence hosted a star-studded spy panel for a discussion on “worldwide cyber threats,” in which almost every director of a major intelligence agency made news. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told the committee that the lack of “both the substance and the mindset of deterrence” has created a permissive environment for cyberattacks, an environment that can only be changed by raising the penalty for those attacks. Clapper also expressed concern that the future of cyberattacks against the United States is likely to entail changing data to undermine its integrity in an attempt to misdirect the efforts of the United States. For his part, NSA Director Adm. Michael Rogers said that cyberattacks by Iranian hackers had decreased significantly since negotiations over a nuclear deal intensified last year.
Elsewhere, the National Journal covers what it calls “the FBI’s charm offensive on encryption,” noting that FBI Director James Comey attempted to downplay the idea of a new “crypto-war.” In his testimony, Comey said that wars are fought by people of differing values, but that the “FBI is not an alien force imposed on the American people.” Comey also tacked a new course on encryption and backdoors, challenging that he had never heard anybody say companies that maintain a key to read emails and send ads (Google and Yahoo! come to mind) were “fundamentally insecure and fatally flawed from a security perspective.” In an interview with the Washington Post, Chris Soghoian responded to Comey, saying that the Chinese breach of Gmail in 2010 was case in point of the insecurity of a third-party key.
TheWashington Post reports that the Department of Justice has charged a 20-year-old Florida man with the distribution of information relating to explosives, destructive devices, and weapons of mass destruction in relation to a plot encouraging an attack on a September 11th memorial event in Kansas City, Missouri. Authorities say that Joshua Ryne Goldberg of Jacksonville posed as an Australian jihadist, telling an FBI informant, “hopefully there will be some jihad on the anniversary of 9/11.” Goldberg also sent over bomb-making instruction manuals and helped select the site for the proposed attack. If convicted, Goldberg faces up to 20 years in prison.
The Daily Beast carries a round-up of the more than 66 cases of Americans suspected of supporting ISIS from inside the United States, placing them into five distinct categories: the lone wolves, the brides, the financiers, the fanboys, and the recruiters. The article also carries a helpful map displaying exactly where the ISIS hotspots are located.
The U.S. government has moved to block the release of 116 pages of lawyers’ notes that provide a detailed account of the alleged torture endured by Guantánamo Bay detainee Abu Zubaydah while under CIA custody. This decision appears to contradict the relaxing of classification rules that permitted the release of information on the conditions of torture following the U.S. Senate report on CIA torture in December.
Defense One’s Molly O’Toole reports that even members of Congress who want to close Guantanamo Bay are objecting to plans to move the base back to their districts, putting yet another hurdle in front of President Obama’s long stated objective of shuttering the detention facility.
Parting shot: The Air Force is attempting to boost the morale of drone pilots with memes. That puzzler here at the Post.
ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare
Alex Ely provided an overview of the Second Circuit oral argument in the Microsoft-Ireland case.
Cody linked to the HSPCI hearing on worldwide cyber threats.
Joanna Harrington kicked off Lawfare’s joint series with Intercross and EJIL:Talk! with a post on the interplay between international human rights law and international humanitarian law.
Aaron Y. Zelin shared a translation of an article from Shaykh Abu Qatadah al-Filistini on “The Importance of Jihadi Media.”
Email the Roundup Team noteworthy law and security-related articles to include, and follow us onTwitter and Facebook for additional commentary on these issues. Sign up to receive Lawfare in your inbox. Visit our Events Calendar to learn about upcoming national security events, and check out relevant job openings on our Job Board.
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Saudi Arabia's civil defense authority has raised the death toll from the collapse of a construction crane at Mecca's Grand Mosque, saying at least 87 people have been killed.
NORFOLK, Va. (AP) - The Navy's submarine force has a new commanding officer.
Vice Adm. Joseph E. Tofalo relieved Vice Adm. Michael J. Connor of command Friday during a ceremony at Naval Station Norfolk.
As the commander of U.S. submarine forces, Tofalo is responsible for establishing strategies on force structure, ...
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday called on world powers to help arm the Syrian army, describing it as the most efficient force against the Islamic State group.
Security source: Moscow setting up air strike capabilities; Iran sent IRGC ground force; ISIS is threatening to take Damascus.
An Iranian Islamic Republican Guards Corp force, comprised of hundreds of soldiers, recently entered Syria to assist the embattled Assad regime, a senior security source said on Thursday. Additionally, in a coordinated Iranian-Russian maneuver, Russian logistics military forces began to arrive to Syria’s coastal region to set up Russian fighter jets and combat helicopters.
Tehran dispatched its force “in light of Assad’s” ongoing distress, the source stated, adding that the deployment is part of a wider Russian-Iranian coordinated effort to prevent what remains of the Assad regime from collapsing.
According to Israeli assessments, the Assad regime currently controls 25 to 30 percent of Syria, consisting of Damascus and the Syrian coastline, where the regime’s minority Alawite support base is centered.
The source described a meeting last month between Quds Force commander Qassam Suleimani and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as an event preceding the Russian- Iranian military initiative to rescue Assad.
In recent days, Russian military forces began to enter Syria to set up air strike capabilities aimed at protecting the Assad regime, the source confirmed. He described the Russian deployment as a “new development,” aimed at helping Assad retrieve areas that he lost in the past year. Mounting territorial losses mean that the Syrian capital of Damascus is now under threat from ISIS, the source said.
“I can’t see the Russian presence as changing the balance of power. It will apparently prolong the fighting. ISIS will never negotiate.
Combat will continue in the coming year, along with the human tragedy in Syria,” he said.
Rebels, using the cover of a heavy sandstorm of the past few days, launched a new offensive and seized the key northwestern city of Idlib, including an air force base there.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is struggling to make gains in Zabadani, in southwest Syria, the source said.
The entire Alawite heartland of Latakia and the port city of Tartus, where Russia has naval interests, is under threat as well, he said.
“The Russian interest is to save the regime, and its goal is to take part in combat against ISIS,” he said.
ISIS is making gains in Palmyra, northeast of Damascus, and is now better positioned to mount an assault on Damascus, according to the source.
ISIS elements have already infiltrated Damascus itself.
Other opposition forces are in the city too, harassing the regime.
In southern Syria, the past months saw the collapse of the Syrian army’s Division 52 in the Syrian Golan region, and today, the regime controls only Quneitra, while the rebels have taken all other areas. Quneitra too is under rebel threat, according to the source.
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 NPR |
With Congress Virtually Out Of The Picture, What's Next For The Iran Deal?
NPR With Senate Democrats successfully blocking a vote this week to rebuff the Iran nuclear deal, the American Congress is now virtually out of the picture. So, what's next? As The New York Times puts it, the deal now moves onto the international stage ... Rep. Pittenger on Iran: We are facing a Hitler with nuclear armsFox News Capital Journal Daybreak: Obama Wins Fight Over Iran Nuclear Deal, MoreWall Street Journal (blog) Sanctions Debate Emerges From Shadow of Iran Nuclear AccordNew York Times Payvand all 198 news articles » |
Finding a mob hangout in Tokyo requires little more than a telephone book. The city’s richest crime group has an office tucked off the back streets of the Ginza shopping district. A brass nameplate on the door helpfully identifies the Sumiyoshi-kai, but the men inside are reluctant to discuss a potentially deadly split in the yakuza ranks. “Nothing to do with us,” growls a sumo-sized mobster at the door. “Now go away.”
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People show their true colors in times of crisis; the same is true for countries. The E.U. is made up of many countries that come in many colors. These 5 facts explain Europe’s schizophrenic response to the migration crisis so far.
1. Germany
Just a month ago, Germany was under fire for mismanaging Greece and the entire financial crisis. With Greece in particular, many observers suggested that Germans simply didn’t care about the suffering of others. Now Germany has pledged to take in an estimated 800,000 refugees this year, earmarking an additional $6.7 billion for the refugee crisis. It’s a remarkable turnaround for Berlin—and its image.
Unsurprisingly, the German government’s newfound generosity has already provoked an internal political backlash. Leaders of the Christian Social Union, an ally of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, have unanimously condemned the move to welcome more migrants. But Germany is staring at some pretty scary demographic figures—by 2060, Germany’s aging population is expected to shrink from 81.3 million to 70.8 million. Admitting hundreds of thousands of migrants will help shore up its labor base for years to come and pay for a social safety net that will have to catch many more people.
The financial crisis was the first real test of German leadership in the E.U.; not only did it fail to get Europe’s finances in order, but the political union is more divided than ever as nationalist parties surge across the continent. The migrant issue is a second chance for Germany to show that it can lead Europe into the future, and it looks set to make the most of the opportunity. Much will depend on Chancellor Merkel’s popularity. For now, she can shrug off criticism from German xenophobes.
2. UK
Unlike Germany, the UK has no real need for more migrants: Britain’s population is set to expand from 64.1 million today to 80.1 million in 2060. That would make it Europe’s most populous country if current migration and fertility rates hold. This helps explain why British Prime Minister David Cameron has only pledged to accept an additional 20,000 refugees over the next five years, a paltry figure compared to Germany’s.
But the specter of the Brexit referendum—a vote, likely next spring, that will decide Britain’s future in the E.U.—also looms large. The UK is a member of the European Union, but not of the Eurozone, allowing the UK to try to exert substantial influence in Europe without accepting some of its most onerous rules, restrictions and responsibilities. According to a recent poll, 40 percent of British citizens say the UK should accept more refugees while 31 percent say the country should accept fewer. That’s a delicate balance, one that Prime Minister David Cameron must bear in mind as he campaigns to ensure Britain keeps at least one foot in Europe.
3. France
Like the UK, France finds itself at a crossroads. On the one hand, it is a leader in the E.U., and one that takes seriously its role as champion of human rights. On the other, its economy is stalling (0.4 percent GDP growth in 2014), its unemployment is high (10.2 percent) and the rise of the far-right National Front (its leader Marine La Pen topped a recent poll of presidential hopefuls with 29 percent) signals a turbulent political climate. Much of this can be attributed to France’s inability to assimilate different immigrant and religious groups into French society. The Charlie Hebdo shootings offered a stark reminder that the children of French immigrants sometimes feel less allegiance toward the homeland that their parents chose than to other callings. Employment numbers tell the same story: the unemployment rate for working-age native born French people is 8.6 percent, while for non-E.U. born workers it’s 18.9 percent. No wonder France is only willing to accept an additional 24,000 refugees this year—even when so much political capital can be won by taking the lead on this issue.
4. Denmark
On Wednesday, Denmark suspended its rail links with Germany, citing the need for “exceptional passport checks.” The Scandinavian country already made waves earlier this week when its Ministry of Immigration, Integration and Housing bought advertisements in four Lebanese newspapers that detailed the stringent regulations that migrants will face in Denmark. This is a pretty brazen attempt to dissuade refugees eyeing the country as a safe haven. Among other things, the ads highlighted recent legislation that slashed welfare benefits for new refugees by 50 percent.
Countries as small as Denmark (population: 5.6 million) don’t have the economic incentive that Germany or France have in accepting more refugees. Factor in Denmark’s uneasy relations with Islamic militants following the 2005 publication of Mohammed cartoons and a minority government that is heavily reliant for backing on the far-right Danish People’s Party, and Denmark’s recent actions are disappointing but unsurprising.
5. Hungary
The migrant crisis is also causing panic in central European countries, best embodied in a wall that Hungary is now building along its border with Serbia. To be fair, Hungary saw asylum applications shoot up 1,236 percent in the first three months of 2015 compared to the same three months of 2014. Put another way, for every million Hungarians, there were 7,245 asylum applicants. That same figure for Brits is 485, for the French 890, Germans 2,635, and the Danish 2,590. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a right-wing populist, has vowed to seal Hungary’s border with Serbia by Sept. 15—claiming to do so for the good of the entire E.U. It also helps that doing so stops ultra-nationalist Jobbik’s climb in the polls.
No European country has received worse press during this migration crisis than Hungary. But that’s the risk you take when you start building walls to keep people out. Europe is built on the shared value of freedom: freedom of ideas, freedom of commerce, freedom of movement. It will take wisdom, courage and patience for EU leaders to protect these freedoms during a crisis that complicates life in so many countries at once. And given the growing unrest across North Africa and the Middle East, there is reason to fear that this crisis is just getting started.
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The completion of the Flight 93 National Memorial has taken 14 years. The brand new visitor center opens to the public on September 10.
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West suspicious of motives for bolstered Moscow presence
9/11 memorials held across US – video by Guardian Staff
An American flag was unfurled at the Pentagon at dawn on Friday, as commemorations marking the 14th anniversary of the September 11 attacks got under way. In Washington, President Obama held a minute’s silence at the White House for the nearly 3,000 people killed in the attacks. Relatives of the victims also gathered in New York and Pennsylvania for memorial ceremonies
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Washington DC’s Union Station was evacuated on Friday after reports of a shooting.
(RIYADH, Saudi Arabia) — At least 65 people were killed and scores were wounded Friday when a crane collapsed in the Grand Mosque in Mecca, SaudiArabia’s civil defense authority
said.The accident happened as pilgrims
The civil defense authority announced the collapse and a series of rising casualty numbers on its official Twitter account. It said 154 people were wounded in the accident.
Videos and photos posted by social media users showed a grisly scene, with police and onlookers attending to multiple bloodied bodies on the polished mosque floors.
Pan-satellite Al-Jazeera Television broadcast footage from inside the mosque compound said to be from the aftermath of the accident, showing the floor strewn with rubble and what appear to be pools of blood.
Another video, on a Twitter posting, captured the apparent moment of the crane’s collapse during a heavy rainstorm, with a loud boom, screams and confusion.
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RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) -- At least 65 people were killed and scores were wounded Friday when a crane collapsed in the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia's civil defense authority said....
At least 65 people have died after a crane collapsed at Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi civil defence is saying.
Royal Air Force jets have intercepted two Russian aircraft flying over the North Sea, the Ministry of Defence has said.
Jeremy Corbyn with supporters on Thursday in London. Mr. Corbyn has emerged as the leading candidate to lead the Labour Party in the wake of the party’s defeat in the general election in May.
Mexico deploys drones on southwestern beaches to protect against a reported surge in poaching of Olive Ridley turtle eggs. Report by Cara Legg.
The Turkish authorities are to lift a curfew imposed on south-eastern Cizre, where the army has been battling Kurdish militants.
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White House aiming to arrange post-Iran deal meeting between Obama, Netanyahu in November
President Obama has reauthorized Cuba's listing on the Trading with the Enemy Act, a move that allows him to continue to use executive authority to improve ties.
The incident in Saudi Arabia occurred as hundreds of thousands of Muslims gather from all over the world for the annual hajj pilgrimage set to begin later this month.
Crane collapses as worshippers gather in Islam's holiest site for annual pilgrimage
September 11, 2015, 9:31 PM (IDT)
American security forces reported Friday that Russian SA-22 Pantsir-S1 anti-air missiles are on their way to Syria, for deployment at the Russian bases going up on the western coast.
In an address to the nation this time last year, President Barack Obama outlined a plan to “degrade and ultimately destroy” ISIS. It was the eve of the 13th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, and at that point the United States had already been bombing ISIS in Iraq for about a month, having intervened as the group menaced the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan and threatened to wipe out the Yazidis, a religious minority. In late August and early September, the group beheaded the American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff in the Syrian desert, helping prompt an expansion of U.S.airstrikes into Syria.
Obama said in his speech that the United States had already conducted 150 successful airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. A year later, the United States military and its allies have conducted 6,700 airstrikes across Iraq and Syria, sent more than 3,000 U.S. troops to Iraq, and trained thousands more Iraqi troops as well as a handful of Syrian fighters. Here’s one critical indicator of how that campaign, Operation Inherent Resolve, is progressing: a look at how ISIS territory has changed in the year since the U.S.-led military campaign began:
Over the past year of U.S. and allied airstrikes, combined with ground offensives by local forces, the Islamic State has lost territory in some areas and gained it in others. In the maps above, produced by the Institute for the Study of War, the black lines represent areas where ISIS holds its tightest control—encompassing roads and several large population centers. Over time, the black splotches recede in places, namely northwestern Syria along the border with Turkey, outside Baghdad, and near the Iraqi city of Tikrit; and expand in others, namely in central Syria near Palmyra, and in Iraq near Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province.
(See also from June 2015: This Is How Little the US-Led Air War Against ISIS Has Achieved)
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The maps also show that ISIS exerts varying degrees of control over the territories where it operates. As Jennifer Cafarella, an analyst at ISW, explained to me last year:
The attack zones are the most straightforward and are meant to depict those areas in which ISIS has participated in or perpetrated armed clashes or kinetic engagements (such as IEDs). Support zones are areas in which ISIS enjoys freedom of movement and from which such attacks are often staged: they are areas in which ISIS does not necessarily possess defensible control, but in which ISIS forces can nonetheless travel and operate with relatively low risk. Control zones, then, are areas in which we have assessed ISIS to have a larger degree of defensible control … in which a counter-ISISforce would be faced with serious ISIS resistance.
This does not add up to the territory “the size of Belgium” that has been attributed to ISIS, but rather to a tattered patchwork of infrastructure and cities—which is also, perhaps, a fair way to describe state control in parts of Iraq and certainly Syria. There are different estimates about whether the group has gained or lost territory overall in the past year. The U.S. Defense Department has saidthat as of April, “ISIL can no longer operate freely in roughly 25 to 30 percent of the populated areas of Iraqi territory where it once could. … ISIL’s area of influence in Syria remains largely unchanged.” But the Pentagon’s inspector general is investigating claims that such reports have been skewed to offer a better picture of the military campaign’s progress, and The Daily Beast has reported that the official account leaves out important territorial gains ISIS has made. The intelligence company Jane’s estimated in July that ISIS had lost 9.4 percent of its territory in the first half of 2015; analysts at ISW use different baselines for how much territory ISIS had to begin with, and the institution doesn’t give percentage estimates of territory gained or lost.
It’s easier and perhaps more informative to focus on the kind of territory ISIS has gained and lost over the past year. As John Ford, a reserve captain in the U.S. Army’s Judge Advocate General Corps, wrote recently for War on the Rocks, all of this adds up to “four major areas of territorial change: ISIL losses near Baghdad, in the Kurdish areas of Iraq, and along the Turkish border with Syria, and ISIL gains in and around Palmyra.” Here’s the pattern he identified:
ISIL has been able to thrive in areas with a majority Arab Sunni population but has failed to take hold in areas where Sunni Arabs are the minority or where effective rival ground forces could oppose them. … Taken in this light, ISIL appears to have essentially traded holdings in Kurdistan and near Baghdad that were hard for it to maintain for holdings in central Syria that will be much easier for it to maintain.
This month, Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the fight against ISIS“tactically stalemated” with no “dramatic gains on either side,” predicting it would take “a decade or more to resolve” the problems that led to ISIS’s rise. This is the difference a year made.
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By Brandon Valeriano and Ryan C. Maness September 11 at 10:00 AM
The cyber domain may offer a new direction in how nations threaten and act against one another. This threat’s immediacy became clear when China hacked the U.S. Office of Personal Management’s systems last June, leaking more than 4 million sensitive records.
The U.S. government’s only viable response was economic sanctions against companies and individuals. It refrained from escalating the conflict so close to President Xi Jinping’s official state visit. In other words, although some hope that cyberconflict will revolutionize military and diplomatic interactions, governments are confronting this new threat through traditional methods.
But what evidence is there about the reality of the cyber-threat? The first step to understanding cyberconflict is to define the domain. Here are 10 things to know about the cybersecurity debate, as taken from our recently released book from Oxford University Press, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities.
1. Terminology is important
Many cyber-scholars have been sloppy in their usage of terms, leading to this rather voluminous definitions document by New America. Since almost anything is now termed as a cyberattack, the term itself is meaningless. Predicting the amount, level and context of cyberconflict is dependent on how the term is defined, framed and engaged. For us, the prefix “cyber” simply means computer or digital interactions. “Cyberspace” is the networked system of microprocessors, mainframes and basic computers that interact at the digital level but have foundations at the physical level. What happens on the physical layer of cyberspace is where political questions operate.
We define “cyberconflict” as the use of computational means, via microprocessors and other associated technologies, in cyberspace for malevolent and/or destructive purposes in order to affect, change or modify diplomatic and military interactions between entities.
2. We need data and theories about cyberconflict
We need to develop theories of cyberaction in the cybersecurity field. Without theory, key aspects of cyber-dynamics can be left unexplained, unexplored or ignored in favor of broad projections.
Our counterintuitive theory suggests that rivals will tolerate cybercombat operations if they do not cross a line that leads directly to the loss of life. Put simply, cyber-actors show a remarkable degree of restraint. To support, we need data.
The goal of creating an exhaustive database of all cyber-incidents and disputes between countries is daunting yet achievable. Our data feature interactions between rival antagonists between 2001-2011 and includes dates, strategies, goals, severity and methods. Future updates will extend the data to all countries and expand the years covered.
3. Cybertactics are not used often
In the table below, we list who uses cybertactics against whom, the number of cyber-incidents and cyber-disputes a state has been involved in, the highest severity type of a dispute, the highest method used by the state, the highest target type the state has used and the highest objective of the initiating state.
Only 16 percent of all rivals have engaged in cyberconflict. In, total, we recorded 111 cyber-incidents and 45 disputes over the period of relations among the 20 rivals. The most frequent users appear to be China as an attacker and the U.S. as the attacked. Other frequent offenders include states such as India, Japan, North Korea and Russia, all with ongoing international conflicts, suggesting the context of disputes matters a great deal.
Summary of cyber-disputes among rival states, 2001-2011.
Data and table: Brandon Valeriano and Ryan C. Maness, 2015. From Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System New York: Oxford University Press, p. 88.The Actions We Have Seen Have Been Low in Severity
4. Cyber-actions to date have not been very severe
The severity levels of the incidents and disputes we observe are, on average, at a very low level. The average severity level for cyber-incidents is 1.65 and for disputes is 1.71. This means that most cyberconflicts – 73 percent – between rival states have been mere nuisances or disruptions. This is surprising, considering how widely the media and military are aware of these possible conflicts. It is also perplexing considering these states are active rivals who seemingly are willing to utilize any tactic to harm their enemy.
Given all this, we may actually be in an era of cyberpeace.
5. Most cyber-incidents are regional
Regional contexts clearly play a role in cyberconflict, a confounding idea given that these technologies defy the physical bounds of time and place.
Below we map cyber-incidents in East Asia. Blast radii mark the location and level of the attack, while the arrows show their source. The vast majority of cyber-incidents occur in regional rivalries. China’s cyberconflicts continue their push for regional dominance with the United States as the only outside regional actor. Most other regions display similar tendencies.
East Asian cyberconflicts
Data and figure: Brandon Valeriano and Ryan C. Maness. 2015. Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Oxford University Press, p. 97.
Data and figure: Brandon Valeriano and Ryan C. Maness. 2015. Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Oxford University Press, p. 97.
6. Cyber-operations haven’t gotten much reaction
Do cyber-actions have much impact? That question has generally been ignored in the field. We tackle it in Chapter 5 of our book and in this article. Using a random effects model with event data that measure the level of conflict and cooperation between states at the weekly level, we find little impact of cyber-operations.
Overall, cyber-incidents, their methods and the nature of their targets do not have statistically significant effects on foreign policy interactions if examined according to interaction types. Further, different cyber-methods do not have statistically significant effects on foreign policy interactions, except for distributed denial of service (DDoS) methods, which have negative effects on conflict cooperation dynamics between states.
This is surprising due to the low level of severity as well as the usual short durations of DDoS attacks. Looking at the intention of the attack, the effects are insignificant except for when the initiator’s intent is to change the behavior of the target state. Attempting to force a state to do something it otherwise would not do in a coercive manner will usually evoke a negative response.
7. Many cyber-incidents would be classified as espionage
An espionage attack is one in which the initiator’s objective is to steal sensitive information from the target government or private sector essential to national security. Twenty-seven of the 111 cyber-incidents recorded here (24 percent) are cyberespionage incidents. Thirteen of the 45 cyber-disputes (29 percent) in our data are cyberespionage campaigns. China is the most active cyberespionage state in our list of rival states engaged in cyberconflict, yet states are unable to find a way to respond since it is unclear if espionage itself is violation of the norms of interaction.
8. Cyberterrorism is an inflated threat
In Chapter 7, we demonstrate there is very little evidence that cyberterrorism is utilized by state-supported or -sponsored groups. In total, we find six incidents, all very low in severity and impact. Within cyberterrorism, we find that each side makes moves to try to influence the other side, force one to back down and provoke fear in the civilian population. Yet we find that every single cyberterrorist event has been trivial and insignificant, evidence for why the tactic might not be utilized often.
9. Cyber-hygiene is important
Unfortunately in the cyber realm, the target often invites violations by allowing vulnerabilities in their systems. The June attack on the White House and State Department supports this conclusion. A state can only steal what others have allowed to be stolen in the cyberworld. The target is therefore partly responsible for cyberconflict.
States need to be concerned with cyber-hygiene and proper online usage. There needs to be cooperation between states at the international level, but also cooperation between government and private industry at the sub-state level.
10. A taboo is developing against cybertactics
Taboos have developed against the use of certain weapons. Deploying nuclear weapons and chemical weapons is said to be unthinkable.
We argue that cyberweapons are moving in this direction. The goal would then be to institutionalize the perspective that cyberweapons are prohibited as taboo. As with any taboo, a system of cyber-justice where the use of the tactic is limited and restrained must be founded upon the notion that the tactic would bring on a stigma not to be risked.
In short, we need cyberrules of action. This needs to be a global debate, not just one hosted by the United States and China.
The cyber-future
Many questions remain. Much more work needs to be done in the field of cybersecurity. The goal should be to move beyond conjecture and prognostication in favor of considered examinations of cybersecurity processes.
Our research program in some ways clashes deeply with futurist proposals of those who would like to suggest war and conflict will be different with the rise of new weapons. We have seen little variation in the methods of warfare and diplomacy used through the history of human civilization. These processes have remained remarkably stable. We do not see that the use of cyber-technologies as a tactic will reshape the future.
Of course, cyberconflict will happen, and with greater frequency. But what we see is that the actions’ severity will be minimal, and that clear norms are developing that will institutionalize the idea that there are only limited acceptable options for states in cyberspace if they wish go on the offense.
Brandon Valeriano is senior lecturer in global security in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Glasgow, Scotland. Ryan C. Maness is visiting fellow in security and resilience studies in Northeastern University’s department of political science. Their book Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System was published in the spring by Oxford University Press.
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Editor’s note: Today, we remember. To all of our readers in the national security profession, we remember where we were on September 11, 2001, and what led us to our callings. Whether at the Pentagon or around the world, we join in recalling those who perished on that day and hope our journalism continues to inform those dedicated to protecting that which we deem worth fighting for with necessary and just discourse. We remember.
An intel problem is brewing in Brussels. NATO was blindsided by Russia’s military deployment into Syria this past weekend, the alliance’s top intelligence official said Thursday. What’s more, Moscow’s abrupt troop movement is the latest example “ that [NATO] members can neither stay ahead of threats nor even decide which ones are the most pressing,” Defense One’s Kevin Baron writes.
“We were able to get some warning, but did not see from a strategic perspective that one, necessarily, coming until just a couple days ago,” said U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Brett Heimbigner, speaking to intelligence professionals at the Intelligence and National Security Summit in Washington, D.C.“From an alliance perspective, what Russia is doing and the ability of Russia to surprise[s] us on a very consistent basis.”
The biggest bad guy in the room: Russia or the Islamic State? NATO’s Baltic and eastern members worry more about Russia, while southern members are more concerned about ISIS, whose “growth is exponentially higher than what they anticipated,” Heimbigner explained. “We have a woeful shortage of ISR,” as well, he said of the high demand for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets. “When we go to ask the nations to contribute, it’s all committed and just not available.”
But it may just turn out that two conflicts become one, Baron writes, with Russia’s move into Syria and the flow of refugees from the Middle East.
“We were able to get some warning, but did not see from a strategic perspective that one, necessarily, coming until just a couple days ago,” said U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Brett Heimbigner, speaking to intelligence professionals at the Intelligence and National Security Summit in Washington, D.C.“From an alliance perspective, what Russia is doing and the ability of Russia to surprise[s] us on a very consistent basis.”
The biggest bad guy in the room: Russia or the Islamic State? NATO’s Baltic and eastern members worry more about Russia, while southern members are more concerned about ISIS, whose “growth is exponentially higher than what they anticipated,” Heimbigner explained. “We have a woeful shortage of ISR,” as well, he said of the high demand for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets. “When we go to ask the nations to contribute, it’s all committed and just not available.”
But it may just turn out that two conflicts become one, Baron writes, with Russia’s move into Syria and the flow of refugees from the Middle East.
On that note—the Kremlin wants to coordinate with the Pentagon to avoid “unintended incidents” in Syria, Moscow’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday morning. Reuters: “[Lavrov] said the Pentagon had suspended operational cooperation with the Russian military, but that this should be resumed since both the U.S. military and Russia’s armed forces were operating in and around Syria…Lavrov said Russia would continue to supply weapons to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to help the Syrian armed forces fight against Islamic State militants.”
Check out the naval infantry units Russia sent to Syria. They reportedly come from the 810th Marine Brigade, “which is based in Sevastopol, Crimea,” The Daily Beast reports. “The 810th is one of the few units of the Black Sea Fleet known to have played an active role in Russia’s military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula 18 months ago.”
“The deployment of an elite unit from Crimea, which inaugurated Russia’s standoff with the West, is an intriguing choice,” TDB writes. “Moscow has spent enormous resources moving troops into Crimea and eastern Ukraine over the past year. Moving even some of them out of the area to a different conflict zone, particularly one outside of Europe, gives the lie that sanctions and diplomatic isolation have forced the Kremlin into compromise; rather, Russia appears ready and willing to take on multiple wars at once.”
Putin’s tall order at this increasingly epic stage: “All he need do now is position himself as the one man who can stem the flow of refugees onto continental shores, beat back ISIS, and end a conflict of his own making in eastern Ukraine.”
Check out the naval infantry units Russia sent to Syria. They reportedly come from the 810th Marine Brigade, “which is based in Sevastopol, Crimea,” The Daily Beast reports. “The 810th is one of the few units of the Black Sea Fleet known to have played an active role in Russia’s military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula 18 months ago.”
“The deployment of an elite unit from Crimea, which inaugurated Russia’s standoff with the West, is an intriguing choice,” TDB writes. “Moscow has spent enormous resources moving troops into Crimea and eastern Ukraine over the past year. Moving even some of them out of the area to a different conflict zone, particularly one outside of Europe, gives the lie that sanctions and diplomatic isolation have forced the Kremlin into compromise; rather, Russia appears ready and willing to take on multiple wars at once.”
Putin’s tall order at this increasingly epic stage: “All he need do now is position himself as the one man who can stem the flow of refugees onto continental shores, beat back ISIS, and end a conflict of his own making in eastern Ukraine.”
Back in Washington, Iran deal obituary writers are running out of material. Democrats sealed victory “in a procedural vote, as the Senate voted 58-42, short of the 60 votes needed, on a measure aimed at derailing the international agreement. The vote effectively ends a bitter, partisan fight in Congress over the accord, and spares Mr. Obama from the need for a veto to safeguard the deal,” reports theWall Street Journal.
But the House isn’t done yet; indeed, they want to send the matter to the courts, House Speaker Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Thursday. Boehner is pushing attack ads like this alleging Obama is somehow violating the law. A Friday vote is planned on the measure to get lawmakers on the record, Boehner said. “House Republicans passed, 245 to 186, a resolution stating that Obama didn’t fulfill his obligations under the law to provide Congress with the text of [so-called] side agreements” between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency that lawmakers have never seen, The Washington Post writes.
What next, then? “Without those documents, [House Republicans] argue, Congress’s 60-day review clock under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act never started. There’s just one problem: In the eyes of the administration, the play clock runs out on Sept. 17. If Congress hasn’t rejected the deal via a disapproval resolution by then, the pact will take effect.”
In an all-star op-ed yesterday, UK’s David Cameron, France’s François Hollande and Germany’s Angela Merkel support the Iran deal with a condemnation “in no uncertain terms” of Iran’s recent inflammatory talk of not recognizing “the state of Israel and the unacceptable language that Iran’s leaders use about Israel,” they write, in the Washington Post. “Israel’s security matters are, and will remain, our key interests, too. We would not have reached the nuclear deal with Iran if we did not think that it removed a threat to the region and the non-proliferation regime as a whole.”
But the House isn’t done yet; indeed, they want to send the matter to the courts, House Speaker Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Thursday. Boehner is pushing attack ads like this alleging Obama is somehow violating the law. A Friday vote is planned on the measure to get lawmakers on the record, Boehner said. “House Republicans passed, 245 to 186, a resolution stating that Obama didn’t fulfill his obligations under the law to provide Congress with the text of [so-called] side agreements” between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency that lawmakers have never seen, The Washington Post writes.
What next, then? “Without those documents, [House Republicans] argue, Congress’s 60-day review clock under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act never started. There’s just one problem: In the eyes of the administration, the play clock runs out on Sept. 17. If Congress hasn’t rejected the deal via a disapproval resolution by then, the pact will take effect.”
In an all-star op-ed yesterday, UK’s David Cameron, France’s François Hollande and Germany’s Angela Merkel support the Iran deal with a condemnation “in no uncertain terms” of Iran’s recent inflammatory talk of not recognizing “the state of Israel and the unacceptable language that Iran’s leaders use about Israel,” they write, in the Washington Post. “Israel’s security matters are, and will remain, our key interests, too. We would not have reached the nuclear deal with Iran if we did not think that it removed a threat to the region and the non-proliferation regime as a whole.”
Announcing the Defense One Summit 2015: The Age of Everything. On Monday, Nov. 2, top national security leaders from military, government, and politics will gather this year to discuss how they are managing to confront the rapid pace of today’s threats, from terrorism to cyberattacks, Russia, Iran, in space, at sea, even in Chattanooga. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper will appear in a live keynote interview. Incoming Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson will also join the third annual Summit to discuss his priorities and vision for the naval force of the future. Register here.
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As the search for ‘Gitmo North’ heats up, U.S. lawmakers go full NIMBY. Even members of Congress who support Obama’s drive to close the prison don’t want the detainees coming to their districts — no huge surprise, and one more roadblock to Obama’s last, best effort. Read just how lawmakers are demurring — or flat-out declining to comment — from Defense One’s Politics Reporter Molly O’Toole,here.
America’s intelligence chiefs say the next wave of cyber attacks won’t steal data, they will directly manipulate it—challenging U.S. officials’ perceptions of what is real and what is not, Tech Editor Patrick Tucker writes from Director of National Intelligence James Clapper’s Thursday testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
Reza Aslan says to defeat ISIS, the U.S. must acknowledge a certain “war of the imagination” that elevates the groups’ true theater of war from earth to the heavens. And that’s just the starting point for recalibrating the West’s struggle against the group that refuses to un-brand itself from Islam,argues the popular and controversial religion scholar.
While the Islamic State’s recruiting carves out decent chunks of the the U.K.’s Islamic community,British adherents to the faith are increasingly caught between public and government suspicion on one side, and a seductive and supposedly empowering ideology on the other. Sunny Hundal, journalist and lecturer on digital journalism in London, digs into “why British Muslims are losing the war against ISIS,” here.
Welcome to Friday’s edition of The D Brief, from Ben Watson and Kevin Baron. Want to share The D Brief with a friend? Here’s our subscribe link. And please tell us what you like, don’t like, or want to drop on our radar right here at the-d-brief@defenseone.com.
So is it 500 or not? U.S. officials revealed Tuesday 196 American troops were killed during the Iraq War by Iranian explosively formed penetrators—a particularly deadly form of roadside bomb. That figure is lower than the 500 deaths that Republican lawmakers have said were casualties of the powerful weapon, in their talking points to oppose the Iran deal.
U.S. Central Command officials offered a new conclusion on Thursday, saying actually they have linked 500 troop deaths to “Iranian activities,” Defense One’s Marcus Weisgerber reports. Many of those additional deaths likely were caused by improvised rocket assisted munitions, “essentially an airborne version of a roadside bomb—a flying IED,” as one Joint IED Defeat Organization document describes the weapons. More here.
U.S. Central Command officials offered a new conclusion on Thursday, saying actually they have linked 500 troop deaths to “Iranian activities,” Defense One’s Marcus Weisgerber reports. Many of those additional deaths likely were caused by improvised rocket assisted munitions, “essentially an airborne version of a roadside bomb—a flying IED,” as one Joint IED Defeat Organization document describes the weapons. More here.
Marine study on women in combat raises eyebrows, and dander. The Corps on Thursday shared the results of an internal study on the performance of co-ed units versus all-male ones when working under simulated combat conditions for nine months at Camp Lejeune, N.C., and Twentynine Palms, Calif.
The skinny: Female Marines “were injured twice as often as men, less accurate with infantry weapons and not as good at removing wounded troops from the battlefield,” WaPo’s Dan Lamothewrites. Each of the services have until the end of September to request an exception to a new order that all jobs be opened to women beginning in 2016. The Marines have not yet said where they will fall on the issue, but Navy Secretary Ray Mabus told NPR this morning he’s pleased that overall prejudices against women in combat are evolving and across-the-board standards for all troops are becoming much clearer; but he’s not completely convinced of the empirical findings of the study—particularly the point that co-ed units’ combat effectiveness is degraded over time, a bit he said was an “extrapolation based on injury rates.” Listen to his take here.
Nice try, guys. “This is the Marine Corps living in the past,” a Pentagon official tells Defense One’s Gayle Tzemach Lemmon. “The test tells us a lot of things about what might be needed, the test was never designed to tell anyone how women might perform in combat.” That amphibious ship has said, the official said. “They know what the decision is going to be. The only way they can fight this is by going after the court of public opinion.”
The skinny: Female Marines “were injured twice as often as men, less accurate with infantry weapons and not as good at removing wounded troops from the battlefield,” WaPo’s Dan Lamothewrites. Each of the services have until the end of September to request an exception to a new order that all jobs be opened to women beginning in 2016. The Marines have not yet said where they will fall on the issue, but Navy Secretary Ray Mabus told NPR this morning he’s pleased that overall prejudices against women in combat are evolving and across-the-board standards for all troops are becoming much clearer; but he’s not completely convinced of the empirical findings of the study—particularly the point that co-ed units’ combat effectiveness is degraded over time, a bit he said was an “extrapolation based on injury rates.” Listen to his take here.
Nice try, guys. “This is the Marine Corps living in the past,” a Pentagon official tells Defense One’s Gayle Tzemach Lemmon. “The test tells us a lot of things about what might be needed, the test was never designed to tell anyone how women might perform in combat.” That amphibious ship has said, the official said. “They know what the decision is going to be. The only way they can fight this is by going after the court of public opinion.”
The Pentagon is adding an additional 75 troops in Egypt’s Sinai region—for now—“along with maneuver and medical assets to include a light infantry platoon, forward surgical teams,” Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said Thursday. That on top of last week’s authorization of “additional high-caliber weapons, surveillance towers, Bradley fighting vehicles, and medical equipment” for the “1,600 U.S. and UN troops tasked with ensuring Egypt and Israel abide by the 1979 peace treaty,”TDB’s Nancy Youssef reports.
Did the CIA’s drone operators miss a chance to keep tabs on al-Qaeda militants holding U.S. hostage Warren Weinstein before he was accidentally killed along with Italian aid worker Giovanni Lo Porto in an agency strike in January? WaPo’s Greg Jaffe, Adam Goldman and Greg Miller suggest the answer is yes. And their position is informed by U.S. officials’ scrutiny stemming from an internal CIAinvestigation into Weinstein’s death.
What this new scrutiny hinges on: Drone “imagery showing an apparent hostage was collected as long as a year before Weinstein was killed, according to officials who said that agency analysts initially assessed that it was unlikely that the captive was the American.”
Why the absence of certainty? The footage “was so inconclusive that even after a long and detailed examination it remains unclear whether the heavily guarded figure was Weinstein.”
But that’s not the only loose thread in the broader Weinstein case. “Five months after Obama’s apology, the family still has not received payment,” WaPo notes. “A U.S. official said that payment was held up by ongoing negotiations between the family and the CIA.” Read their report in full, here.
What this new scrutiny hinges on: Drone “imagery showing an apparent hostage was collected as long as a year before Weinstein was killed, according to officials who said that agency analysts initially assessed that it was unlikely that the captive was the American.”
Why the absence of certainty? The footage “was so inconclusive that even after a long and detailed examination it remains unclear whether the heavily guarded figure was Weinstein.”
But that’s not the only loose thread in the broader Weinstein case. “Five months after Obama’s apology, the family still has not received payment,” WaPo notes. “A U.S. official said that payment was held up by ongoing negotiations between the family and the CIA.” Read their report in full, here.
Lastly today, we’re in the midst of Gulf War’s 25th anniversary—an event the Council on Foreign Relations marked Thursday with a panel discussion featuring Richard Haass; Richard Kerr, Paul Wolfowitz and former Ambassador Thomas Pickering. For a little less heady take on the conflict, hereare “21 Facts about the First Gulf War.”
A sampling: Saddam thought the United States gave him the okay to invade Kuwait; Iraq rolled over Kuwait in two days; the Coalition built fake bases and units to dupe Iraqis into defending the wrong area; One American pilot was believed missing in action for 18 years after the war, and 17 others.
A sampling: Saddam thought the United States gave him the okay to invade Kuwait; Iraq rolled over Kuwait in two days; the Coalition built fake bases and units to dupe Iraqis into defending the wrong area; One American pilot was believed missing in action for 18 years after the war, and 17 others.
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Amid claims senior military officials altered reports to downplay the strength of Islamic State and al-Qaida's branch in Syria, the House Intelligence Committee's top lawmakers say they welcome whistleblowers from the intelligence community to step forward.
September 11, 2015, 9:18 PM (IDT)
A large construction crane crashed into the Grand Mosque in Saudi Arabia’s holy city of Mecca on Friday, and the authorities there said at least 65 people had been killed. The accident happened as the Saudi authorities were in the midst of extensive preparations for the hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, which begins in the next few weeks.
House GOP rejects Iran deal, votes to extend sanctionsby Stephen Dinan, Tom Howell Jr. and Stephen Dinan, Tom Howell Jr.
The House voted Friday to extend American sanctions on Iran until January and went on record rejecting the deal President Obama and other international leaders reached to curtail the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, in votes more freighted with symbolism than effect at this point.
Mr. Obama has already said he ...
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the chief critic of President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, will visit the White House in November, administration officials said Friday.
The meeting will be the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders since the U.S. and its international partners struck a controversial deal with ...
The Pentagon said Friday that it has had “no military to military contact” with Russia as Russian aircraft and ground forces amass a campaign in Syria to support President Bashar Assad.
In pictures: A Look at Europe migrant crisis
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