THOMAS GRAHAM ON REBUILDING US-RUSSIA RELATIONS
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Dear Friends,
Finally an article on the US-Russia relationship that sums it all up!Tom Graham, is currently the Managing Director at Kissinger Associates where he focuses on Russian and Eurasian Affairs. He was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia on the National Security Council from 2004-2007 and has held many positions of importance in US-Russia relations in the US government since 1984. We have had the privilege of meeting with him a number of times in the past and found his analysis always far ahead of his colleagues. The following is an amazing summation of what needs to be understood and put into real-time practice between the two countries.
Finally an article on the US-Russia relationship that sums it all up!Tom Graham, is currently the Managing Director at Kissinger Associates where he focuses on Russian and Eurasian Affairs. He was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia on the National Security Council from 2004-2007 and has held many positions of importance in US-Russia relations in the US government since 1984. We have had the privilege of meeting with him a number of times in the past and found his analysis always far ahead of his colleagues. The following is an amazing summation of what needs to be understood and put into real-time practice between the two countries.
A Russia Problem, Not a Putin Problem
Carnegie Corporation of New York
Rebuilding US-Russia Relations
The Ukraine crisis has put an end to 25 years of U.S.-Russia relations. The swiftness with which they collapsed, and the absence of any influential forces in either country actively working for their repair, is evidence of how much pretension and frustration had infused relations in recent years. It also suggests a deep-seated anti-American bias in the Russian elite, mirroring a Russophobia of comparable depth on the American side.
It may remain true that there is much the two countries could do together, on WMD nonproliferation, counterterrorism, regional balances, energy security, and climate change, among other things, that would advance the interests of each country and benefit the world as a whole, particularly over the long term. But shared interests will not be enough to bring the two countries together again. For the problem in relations is grounded in each country's sense of itself and its role in the world-in the American belief that it should be the global leader and in Russia's conviction that it should be a major independent actor. That reality creates major obstacles to cooperation even on shared interests.
Under these circumstances, there can be no new reset in relations. Seeking to repair them by returning to an earlier set of assumptions about them is a dead end. Those assumptions no longer hold. Rather, relations need to be rethought in light of the realities in both countries, including the huge divide in worldviews.
The first step in rethinking relations on the American side will require that we ask some fundamental questions, such as:
How important is Putin?
He is the dominant figure in Russia today, and he makes the final decisions on foreign policy. But we need to remember that he operates in a political context and does not have a free hand, as he must balance the competing factions around him to maintain his own position. Moreover, he is a product of the Russian elite, and he gives voice to its consensus on Russia's role in the world, which has deep roots in history and strategic tradition. His departure might lead to a change in style, but it will have little impact on the substance of Russian foreign policy. In short, we have a Russia problem, not a Putin problem.
How does the Russian elite think about world affairs?
Russian strategic thinking falls within the broad outlines of the realist school: Sovereign states are the central actors in world affairs; competition among states is inevitable; power, especially the hard variety, is the coin of the realm; and the goal of foreign policy is to create the optimal geopolitical balance for advancing one's interests. In such a world, only the great powers have the wherewithal to pursue genuinely independent policies; they are the few countries that determine the substance and structure of world affairs. Russian pride dictates that Russia must do all it can to sustain itself as a great power. The first task is guaranteeing Russian security.
What are the essential requirements of Russian security?
First, modern Russia has seen its security as dependent on creating strategic depth, as it emerged on the almost featureless great Eurasian plain. To that end, it has pushed its frontiers outward until it met the resistance of well-organized and powerful states. Over centuries, this dialectic of expansion and resistance came to define Russia's geopolitical zone of interest as the heart of Eurasia, which encompasses all of the former Soviet space (and most of the former Russian imperial space minus Finland and Poland). Today's Russia believes that Russian primacy in-not necessarily control of-this region is vital to its own security. Ukraine is critical in this regard, since it creates strategic depth against potential aggression from the West; in particular, it precludes Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO and bringing that organization's infrastructure within a few hundred miles of Moscow.
Second, the choice that faces countries in this region is not Russian domination or genuine independence; it is a choice among great powers vying for influence over them. Russians tirelessly point out that today's Ukraine is composed of disparate territories that were only united under Soviet rule. In their minds, much the same could be said of all the other former Soviet states, which assumed their current form in the Soviet period and most of which had no substantial history of independent statehood before the breakup of the Soviet Union. Such states can never be fully sovereign. If they are not in Russia's orbit, they will inevitably fall into that of another great power. As a matter of its own security, Moscow will always seek to limit the presence of other powers in the former Soviet space.
Third, Russian territorial ambitions beyond its traditional geopolitical zone have been quite limited historically. In this regard, the Soviet period stands out as an anomaly, born of the unique conditions of the mid to late 20th century: the power vacuum in the center of Europe created by the total collapse of Nazi Germany and the subsequent bitter ideological divide and revolutionary upheaval that produced a global competition between the Soviet Union and the United States. Those conditions no longer prevail, and Russia has reverted to its historical policy of creating a suitable balance of power on the European continent that takes into account the interests of the other great European powers.
Is an ideological divide emerging?
Since he returned to the Kremlin in May 2012, Putin has advocated a form of Russian nationalism that sets itself against the West. But his anti-Westernism does not mark an absolute rejection of the West and its values; it does not mark a return to the existential Cold-War struggle between two political systems with diametrically opposed views of human character and the relationship between state and society. Rather, Putin has positioned himself as the defender of traditional Western values against their post-modern, and he would argue decadent, interpretation in much of the West today. In his mind, he is not seeking to export Russia's values, as the Soviet Union did, but rather to rally other societies that also oppose the West's interpretation of certain values to create an international system that is more representative of the differences within a shared value system.
Despite much overblown rhetoric in Washington, Russia in fact poses a limited challenge to the United States. The appropriate response is not to return to the Cold War. But neither is it to speak of a return to cooperation if Russia realizes the errors of its ways and begins to conduct itself in a way the West finds more compatible. Rather, we need to abandon hopes of transforming Russia and acknowledge that it is one of many major powers in the world today. In dealing with Russia, we need to think in terms of competition and accommodation, that is, of great power diplomacy, refashioned to take account of the differences between today's world and the last period of great power diplomacy in the 19th century. We might also remind ourselves, that period was one of relative peace and security, of prosperity and progress.
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- Claim puts at risk 'roadmap' to peace discussed in Minsk yesterday
- Pro-Moscow separatists shelled government-held town of Novoazovsk
- Town lies on the road to Ukrainian port of Mariupol and west to Crimea
- Ukrainian tanks and heavy artillery pictured massing near Mariupol
- Attacks sparked fears Russians are trying to create link to annexed land
- Mothers of captured Russian soldiers plea for Putin to bring them home
Published: 11:53 GMT, 27 August 2014 | Updated: 18:41 GMT, 27 August 2014
Ukraine alleged today that a huge convoy of up to 100 Russian tanks, armoured vehicles and rocket launchers had infiltrated its territory.
If confirmed, the claim could destroy a new 'roadmap' to peace discussed by the two countries' leaders and EU officials at a Minsk summit less than 24 hours earlier.
The news comes as a column of Ukrainian tanks, trucks and heavy artillery was pictured massing near the town of Mariupol, close to where Pro-Moscow separatists began shelling today.
A column of Ukrainian tanks, heavy weapons and trucks have been pictured massing near the town of Mariupol after reports Russian armoured vehicles crossed the border
Ukrainian soldiers towing a heavy artillery gun rest outside Mariupol, a short distance from the town of Novoazovsk that Pro-Moscow separatists began shelling earlier today
There was also a second report of a border crossing by five armoured infantry carriers and one truck at Amvrosiyivka (pictured, troops outside Mariupol)
Smoke billows from a building that has been shelled on the outskirts of the small southern Ukrainian city of Novoazovsk in the Donetsk region
Earlier today Vladimir Putin faced anguished calls from soldiers' mothers and wives demanding that he brings home alive the men detained in Ukraine.
The emotional pleas from the women, and the disturbing account of an enormous new deployment of Russian firepower in Ukraine, raises searching questions on Mr Putin's aims in the dispute, hours after he informed the world he was committed to an end to bloodshed.
Kiev appealed for Nato's help yesterday over the new convoy, alleged to be travelling towards Telmanove, 50 miles south of rebel-held city Donetsk and 13 miles inside the border.
A Ukrainian military source insisted the convoy must be Russian in origin.
'You cannot buy 100 tanks at a market in Donetsk or Lugansk,' the source told French news agency AFP.
'Of course they have been moved from across the border.'
Firefighters work to extinguish a fire shelling by pro-Russian militants in the southern Ukrainian city of Novoazovsk
Members of the Ukrainian volunteer battalion stand in a steel armoured truck after the country appealed for NATO's help with the conflict
Ukraine alleged on Wedensday that a huge convoy of up to 100 Russian tanks, armoured vehicles and rocket launchers had infiltrated its territory
There was a second report of a border crossing by five armoured infantry carriers and one Kamaz truck at Amvrosiyivka, said security spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
Ukrainian premier Arseny Yatseniuk said his country needed 'practical help' from Nato, with which it has the status of a special partner, and demanded 'momentous' decisions at its summit in Wales in early September.
He also claimed Russia was set to turn off the gas supply taps to Europe this winters.
Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen vowed to create a new 'spearhead' force with 'very, very high readiness' to cope with what the alliance saw as Russia's new belligerence.
It came as the strategically important town of Novoazovsk, in the south-east of the country, was shelled by pro-Russian forces today.
The attack raised fears of a counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces.
In response to outgoing fire early this morning, pro-Moscow forces lobbed at least 10 shells at the Kiev stronghold, with plumes of black smoke rising above the town.
Mr Putin alleged the detention of 10 Russian servicemen came after they crossed the border 'by accident', a claim widely disbelieved in Kiev, which claims it has faced repeated attacks from Kremlin troops in a conflict which has seen almost 2,300 deaths.
The wife of Alecey Generalov, cries as she begs Vladimir Putin to help release her soldier husband who has been captured
Mother of Yegor Pochtoyev, Olga begs Putin to bring her son back, after he was captured in Ukraine
A video was also released with a group of tearful mothers pleading for them to be returned, as some of the captives appeared at a press conference in Kiev.
However it received little play on major state-run TV channels.
'My child, Yegor Pochtoyev, is currently a captive in Ukraine. I beg you in the name of God - give me my child back,' urged his mother, Olga.
'Give him back alive. Him and all the other men that are captives with him.
'Son, and other boys - we are with you. We will take you out of it no matter what happens.
'If the military chief won't do it - we, your mothers, will get you out.'
The emotional wife of Alexey Generalov declared: 'We love you and we're waiting for you to come back home.'
Russian soldier Yegor Valeryevich, who has been captured in Ukraine after he and nine other troops crossed the border
Alexey Nikolayevich Generalov, whose wife has begged Putin and other government ministers to help free him after he was captured
She demanded of Putin and defence minister Sergei Shoigu: 'Help them, rescue them, bring them back home safe and sound.'
The relatives of other detainee soldiers Sergey Arkhipov and Sergey Smirnov also begged for their release.
Newspaper Vedomosti expressed a growing questioning of the Kremlin's policies in Ukriane.
'Silence or incoherent commentaries from official bodies only strengthen the atmosphere of suspicion and make us remember unpleasant episodes of Russian and Soviet history.'
Earlier, Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko said he was committed to a new roadmap to peace, and would work for a ceasfire in fighting.
Mr Putin - while accused of flooding eastern Ukraine with fighters and military equipment - said he had no role in organising a truce.
Blitzed: Smoke rises from the Kiev-held town of Novoazovsk after it was shelled by rebel forces, raising fears they are launching a counter-offensive hours after leaders met to discuss the escalating crisis
Bombardment: Ukrainians watch the attack on Novoazovsk by Pro-Moscow forces. The town was also hit repeatedly by shelling on Tuesday, injuring four people in a hospital, mayor Oleg Sidorkin said
Novoazovsk lies on the Azov Sea on the road that runs from Russia to the major Ukrainian port of Mariupol and west to Crimea, raising fears the separatists are seeking to create a land link between Russia and Crimea, which Russia annexed in March.
On Tuesday, Mr Putin and Mr Poroshenko met in the Belarusian capital of Minsk for their first ever one-on-one meeting, which lasted over two hours.
Mr Poroshenko called the talks 'overall positive' and said Mr Putin had accepted the principles of his peace plan, which includes an amnesty for those in the east not accused of serious crimes and calls for some decentralisation of power to the region.
Deployed: Ukrainian soldiers ride atop an armoured personnel carrier near the village of Sakhanka
Strategic: Ukrainian soldiers seen near the village of Sakhanka. Novoazovsk lies on the Azov Sea on the road that runs from Russia to the major Ukrainian port of Mariupol and west to Crimea
Mr Putin, however, insisted that only Kiev could secure a ceasefire deal with the pro-Moscow separatists, saying the internal conflict was 'Ukraine's business'.
Russia 'can only help to create an atmosphere of trust for this important and necessary process,' Mr Putin said.
'We in Russia cannot talk about any conditions for the ceasefire, about any agreements between Kiev, Donetsk, Luhansk [the two rebel regions].'
Kiev and the West have repeatedly accused Russia of supplying arms and expertise to the rebels in eastern Ukraine, something Moscow denies.
Keeping his distance: Putin insisted that only Kiev could secure a cease-fire deal with the pro-Moscow separatists when he held talks in Minsk (above) with his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko
'Positive': Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (centre) said Putin had accepted the principles of his peace plan, which includes calls for some decentralisation of power to the eastern region of Ukraine
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There are two things happening between Ukraine and Russia right now. First, Russian and Ukrainian leaders are meeting in Belarus to negotiate a peace deal in the Ukrainian conflict that Russia insists it has nothing to do with. Second, Russian military forces are crossing the border into Ukraine in what is clearly a hostile invasion and act of war. That includes Russian artillery, Russian tanks, Russian-trained irregular forces, and even uniformed Russian soldiers who have admitted on camera that they are Russian military ordered to invade by their commanders.
But the first piece of that is obfuscating the second. Getting Russia to agree to a peace deal on Ukraine requires lots of careful diplomacy, and that means that no one wants to formally acknowledge Russia's invasion of Ukraine, even though Russia is definitely invading Ukraine right now. That's how you have even the more hawkish figures in the Obama administration making statements like this:
When is a Russian invasion of a neighboring country an incursion and an escalation, but not actually an invasion? When acknowledging that is in an invasion would complicate diplomacy to the point that ending the invasion could become much harder.
But there's more behind this confusion than just careful diplomacy. Russian President Vladimir Putin learned a crucial lesson from Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad last year, when the latter got away with using chemical weapons against his own people.
How to cross an American red line: slowly
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