Information overload is Army's new fog of war, general says | Analysts Said to Provide Evidence of Distorted Reports on ISIS | White House Split On Opening Talks With Putin
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Lt. Gen. Bob Brown was looking down at his new iWatch on Tuesday during the first day of the Maneuver Warfighter Conference at Fort Benning, Ga. It was a perfect symbol for one of the biggest points Brown drove home.
Analysts Said to Provide Evidence of Distorted Reports on ISISby MARK MAZZETTI and MATT APUZZO
The Pentagon’s inspector general is examining claims that senior military officers manipulated conclusions about progress against the Islamic State.
White House Split On Opening Talks With Putinby PETER BAKER and ANDREW E. KRAMER
President Obama's administration is debating whether Mr. Obama and President Vladimir V. Putin should try to work out their differences, but fear playing into Mr. Putin's hands.
Migrants Plot Alternative Routes as Hungary Detains 500by DAN BILEFSKY and JOSEPH OROVIC
Some were planning to go through Croatia or Slovenia, or even through Hungary’s border with Romania — which Hungary is also moving to tighten.
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Republican presidential contender Donald Trump is addressing America's military standing in a speech aboard a World War II battleship in Los Angeles harbor....
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday made his third phone call to his Russian counterpart in the last 10 days, the State Department said, seeking to clarify the intent of Moscow's military buildup in Syria, and warning that ongoing aid to President Bashar Assad will only prolong the Syrian conflict....
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`Other disappeared' leave gaping holes in Mexico's fabricby By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN
COCULA, Mexico (AP) -- On the morning of her high school graduation, Berenice Navarijo Segura was delayed for a hair and makeup appointment by an explosion of gunfire in the center of town. Her mother was up before dawn preparing stewed goat and beans for the celebration, and didn't want her to risk going out. Her sister, who had made enough salsa for 60 guests, tried to hold back the spirited 19-year-old with questions: "Do you have your wallet? What about your phone?"...
AMMAN, Jordan (AP) -- Hundreds of Syrian refugees line up outside their embassy in Jordan every day for a long shot at a better future - applying for new passports that allow them to enter Turkey legally and from there start on a dangerous trek to Europe....
 Washington Post |
A German man held captive in the CIA's secret prisons gives first interview in ...
Washington Post In early 2004, Khalid el-Masri, a German and Lebanese citizen, was turned over to the CIA by the authorities in Macedonia where he had been detained while trying to enter the country on a short trip. He was taken to Afghanistan and spent several months ... |
September 16, 2015, 12:07 PM (IDT)
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls reported Wednesday that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has accepted an invitation to visit Paris in November. Valls also referred to Iran’s important role in the region, saying Tehran can play a positive role “in favor of a political solution” to the deadly conflict in Syria. Shortly after the nuclear deal was concluded in Vienna in July, the French foreign minister visited Tehran at the head of a delegation of French business leaders.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Republican presidential contender Donald Trump is promising subsidized private health care for frustrated veterans, charging that immigrants in the country illegally receive better care than the nation's wounded soldiers.
The comments, delivered Tuesday aboard a retired World War II battleship in Los Angeles harbor, came on ...
Today's Headlines and Commentaryby Elina Saxena, Cody M. Poplin
 | mikenova shared this story from  Lawfare - Hard National Security Choices. |
The Kremlin is unwilling to back down from its escalation in Syria. That’s the news from Reuters, which tells us that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that talks between Washington and Moscow would be vital in resolving the Syrian conflict.
Russia is establishing a forward operating base in Syria, the Pentagon confirms. The evidence: portable air traffic control stations, prefabricated housing, anti-aircraft missiles and the building of an airstrip, and, of course, the alleged presence of Russian military personnel in the country. Defense One's Molly O'Toole discusses what has been a steady escalation of personnel and equipment near the Syrian city of Latakia over the last week and a half.
The Guardian reports that Russia has also sent artillery units and tanks to Syria along with hundreds of troops, fueling U.S. concerns. The New York Times elaborates further, indicating that satellite photos have revealed shipments of “about half a dozen T-90 tanks, 15 howitzers, 35 armored personnel carriers, 200 marines and housing for as many as 1,500 personnel”--with more to come.
As Russia maintains that it is simply sending military advisors and aid as part of traditional support for its long time ally, the Washington Post brings us news of President Vladimir Putin’s comments on the matter: support for the regime of President Bashar al Assad is necessary to defeat “terrorist aggression.” This seems to be the Kremlin line, as Peskov explained that “no one can clearly explain what could be the alternative to the current legitimate Syrian government in terms of the country’s security, the struggle against the spread of the Islamic State, the unity of the country.” More on that from the Wall Street Journal.
Highlighting these same challenges that have prolonged the conflict, Former Finnish president and Nobel peace prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari suggests in the Guardian that Western powers did not adequately consider Russia's 2012 proposal to have Syria's president Bashar al Assad step down as part of a peace deal.
The Times reports that two car bombs have killed 26 people in a primarily Kurdish city of Hasaka, in northeastern Syria. Adding to a series of ISIS attacks in the region, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the bombings, which targeted Kurdish cadets as well as a base for a pro-government militia.
France24 tells us that French President Francois Holland has announced his support for airstrikes in Syria, adding that sending ground forces would be “ineffective and unrealistic.” The French military has been conducting surveillance flights to determine the best course of action to limit the Islamic State’s growth.
While over four million Syrians have fled their homeland for the safety of Europe, the New York Times discusses the waking nightmare faced by those who remain within the country. Seven million people have been internally displaced by the conflict, many of whom may ultimately be planning their own escape across the border.
Hungary has declared a state of emergency as it struggles to deal with the influx of migrant and refugee populations, Al Jazeera writes. Hungarian military forces have been deployed to protect the country’s border with neighboring Serbia, and over 10,000 people have been detained for crossing the border illegally. Hungary has already constructed a 175 kilometer fence along its border with Serbia, Reuters tells us, and authorities are now discussing plans to extend this fence along the country’s border with Romania.
The Washington Post highlights the repercussions of Hungary’s declaration for the thousands of migrants and refugees stranded outside its borders. While the human cost of Hungary’s response is hard to ignore, the Post also points us to the security concerns of European leaders worried over thethousands of people who have already “reached the heart of Europe without showing anyone any documents.”
The Journal exposes the role that private companies play in shaping the movements of refugees. While some companies provide services and goods that governments are unwilling or unable to provide, others have been accused of profiting from human misery.
Yemen: The Times writes that United Nations high commissioner for human rights Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein has demanded an inquiry into violations committed by the Saudi-led coalition and the opposing Houthi rebels. The crisis has killed at least 2,000 civilians and rendered over 21 million people in need of humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, the Journal notes that the Saudi coalition hasescalated its offensive in the Marib province following a Houthi attack that left 67 coalition troops dead.
The Journal also talks about the attack by Egyptian troops that killed 12 tourists and injured ten others yesterday, suggesting that Egyptian security forces mistakenly bombed tourist vehicles using planes and helicopters. The Egyptian tourism ministry blamed the group for entering a prohibited area and skirting proper procedure--though a representative from the tour company suggests otherwise.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Director General Yukiya Amano is expected to visit Iran later this week, VOA News reports. The organization, which is in charge of overseeing Iran's compliance with the July nuclear agreement, is set to deliver the findings of its investigations on the past military dimensions of Iranian nuclear activity by this December.
According to Reuters, the anticipated lifting of Western sanctions in light of the nuclear agreement will benefit one of the "most powerful and secretive organizations in Iran" as well as 40 related firms. The organization, known as “Setad,” has a close relationship with the Iranian government and has “built its empire on the systematic seizure of thousands of properties belonging to religious minorities, business people, and Iranians living abroad.”
Reuters also reports Iran’s interest in working with China to resolve tensions in the Middle East.Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif cited the countries’ “complementary” economies, presumably a reference to China’s role as the largest international consumer of Iranian oil.
The Times describes the third day of clashes in Jerusalem’s al Aqsa Mosque compound. Responding to the stones and fireworks thrown at them, Israeli security forces entered the mosque with stun guns and tear gas. The inside of the mosque has reportedly been damaged; it remains unclear who exactly is responsible for the destruction.
The Wall Street Journal sheds light on the Nigerian government’s response to former fighters within and victims of Boko Haram. While the government is attempting to provide rehabilitation programs to former militants, it is also helping Boko Haram’s traumatized victims. The question for the government, theJournal says, is “what to do with this mass of young people who have either been failed by the state, or at war with it.”
Though no group has claimed responsibility for the August bombings at the Erawan Shrine, police are now speculating that the attacks were in retaliation to Thailand's crackdown on the trafficking of China’s Uighur Muslims. Thailand’s police chief Somyot Poompanmoung has blamed the attack on Uighur militants involved in trafficking Uighurs, the Times reports: one suspect had a Chinese passport indicating his origins in China’s western regions, where the Uighur population is concentrated.
Following a meeting on Friday between senior U.S. and Chinese officials regarding cybersecurity, thePost reports thatthe United States will not implement economic sanctions against China in advance of President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington next week. While sanctions are still possible, this decision has deflated tensions that had been surrounding the Chinese president’s visit. The Times alsoreports on the White House’s response to the increasing concerns over the cyberthreat posed by China and Iran.
Photographs taken by the Center for Strategic and International Studies reveal what appears to beconstruction of a third airstrip in the contested South China Sea. This discovery raises fears amongst neighboring countries as China continues to flex its muscles and expand its influence over the disputed area. There has been no lack of clarity from China, however, Defense One reports. Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai, commander of the North Sea Fleet for the PLA’s Navy, says that the South China Sea “belongs to China.”China maintains that their activity in the region “does not target any other country or affect freedom of navigation by sea or air,” CNN adds.
Elsewhere in the region, Japan has announced that it will provide Vietnam with used boats and other equipment, in a move designed to boost the southeast Asian country’s maritime security capabilities.The sum of the military aid is relatively small---just $1.7 million USD---but is nevertheless meant to signal the “serious concerns” that both countries share over China’s attempts to change the status quo in the South China Sea. The two states agreed to continue strengthening security and defense cooperation. The Times has more.
North Korea declared today that it would be upgrading and restarting all of its atomic plants with the intention of improving its nuclear arsenal in both “quality and quantity.” The announcement follows a separate decision to put a new satellite into orbit using a rocket that many analysts see as an “intercontinental ballistic missile in the making,” according to the New York Times. Even so, the Associated Press notes that the statement mirrors previous North Korean efforts designed to push for talks with the United States in an attempt to ease sanctions.
In the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Bruce Schneier asks the question: “When the NSA---or any government agency---discovers a vulnerability in a popular computer system, should it disclose it or not?” Schneier uses the case of Hacking Team a recently released NSA document outlining the “vulnerability equities process” to argue that the NSA should actively seek to disclose and patch the vulnerabilities, prioritizing defense over offence in the cyber domain.
Spencer Ackerman of the Guardian reports that the U.S. government has provided the United States District Court for the District of Columbia with redacted copies of the eight videotapes showing the forced feeding of detainees held at Guantanamo Bay. The Justice Department was still seeking to prevent the release of the tapes as recently as late July, in response to an October 2014 court order requiring the government to hand them over.
Over at the Journal, Justice Stephen Breyer writes on the rise in cases that require the Court to examine the law and practice of other nations. The reality of an increasingly interdependent world, he argues, requires domestic courts to look beyond U.S. borders in interpreting the law.
Parting shot: Remember Jade Helm? Well, today the Post informs us that the surprisingly controversial military exercise has come to an end, and the freedom of Texas stands assured.
ICYMI: This Weekend, on Lawfare
Jack analyzed the “non-trivial but probably losing argument that the Iran Review Act bars the president from lifting U.S. sanctions against Iran.”
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September 16, 2015, 2:35 AM (IDT)
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu called an emergency security meeting Tuesday with several Cabinet Ministers and Security Chiefs to discuss the surge of Palestinian stone-throwing attacks and other disturbances in Jerusalem and on highways, leading Sunday night to the death of an Israeli motorist at the hands of stone-throwers. The prime minister ordered reassessment of the recent orders to abstain from live fire against Palestinian stone-throwers, except in life-threatening situations. Also discussed was new legislation for raising the minimum jail sentence and imposing high fines on offenders and their parents, in the case of minors. The session began with Netanyahu stressing the importance of maintaining the status quo on Temple Mount and not permitting Palestinian and other Muslims to prevent Jewish visits to the shrine by staging violent disturbances.
“We will fight by all necessary means against the users of stones, bottle bombs, pipe bombs and fire crackers for the deliberate intent of harming civilians and police officers,” the prime minister said. “It was proven again that rocks can kill and throwers will henceforth face severe punishment and deterrent penalties.”
In a survey of 1,365 Syrians from all 14 governorates of the country, a fifth of those interviewed said the Islamic State is a positive influence on the country. And 82 percent said they believe the Islamic State was created by the United States and its allies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday strongly defended Moscow's military assistance to the Syrian government, saying it's impossible to defeat the Islamic State group without cooperating with Damascus.
North Korea claimed Tuesday it has reactivated “normal operation” at its atomic bomb fuel fabrication plants and that it is prepared to use nuclear weapons against “hostile forces” in the international community, including the United States.
According to USA Today, North Korea said via state media that its plutonium and uranium enrichment facilities at the Yongbyon fuel fabrication plant have been “rearranged, changed, or readjusted and they started normal operation.”
The country alleged it is ready at “any time” to use nuclear weapons against nations that pursue “reckless hostile policy” toward North Korea.
“If the U.S. and other hostile forces persistently seek their reckless hostile policy towards the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] and behave mischievously, the DPRK is fully ready to cope with them with nuclear weapons any time,” the North Korean Atomic Energy Institute director said in statement carried by the KCNA news agency, CNN reported.
The claims follow statements made by the country Monday that its space agency is planning to launch a new satellite in honor of the 70th anniversary of the founding of its ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) on Oct. 10, indicating preparations for a long-range missile launch.
On Tuesday, South Korea’s Defense Ministry called the potential long-range rocket launch a “serious provocation” and a military threat and said it would represent a violation of U.N. resolutions, according to the Yonhap News Agency.
The defense ministry spokesman reiterated that no “particular signs” of missile launch preparations have been seen. North Korea insists the rocket launches are part of a space program to put satellites into orbit.
Though U.N. Security Council resolutions bar North Korea from using ballistic missile technology in tests, the country has pushed forward with missile and nuclear programs amid warnings and sanctions from the international community.
Satellite imagery captured in late 2014 and early 2015 appeared to show that North Korea has activated a second uranium centrifuge hall at its Yongbyon fuel fabrication plant. If operational, the second centrifuge hall could double North Korea’s ability to produce weapons-grade uranium.
The post North Korea Prepared to Use Nuclear Weapons Against US For ‘Mischievous’ Behaviorappeared first on Washington Free Beacon.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke by telephone on Tuesday with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and the conflict in Syria was on Kerry’s agenda for the discussions, the U.S. State Department said.
State Department spokesman John Kirby did not immediately offer details of the call between Kerry and Lavrov. U.S. officials have indicated that Russia is increasing its military presence in Syria and have expressed concern about whether Moscow is boosting support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
(Reporting by Arshad Mohammed; writing by David Alexander)
The post U.S., Russian Top Diplomats Talk Amid Syria Buildup appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.
Premium rates within Obamacare are set to increase in several states next year, with rates in one city predicted to increase by as much as 22.8 percent, according to a recent study.
The study, released by the Kaiser Family Foundation, consists of an analysis of premium rates for the second-lowest-cost silver plan. This plan is used by 68 percent of people currently enrolled in the federal health insurance marketplace.
The study looked at the most readily available data of premium filings from insurers to state insurance departments and includes major cities in 12 states and Washington, D.C. Comprehensive data was not fully available for numerous other states, excluding them from the analysis.
According to the data, nine of the 13 cities included within the study will see an increase in their 2016 premium rates.
Portland, Ore., is predicted to see the biggest jump between this year and next year, increasing by as much as 22.8 percent in 2016. This is not the first time the city has seen a jump in insurance costs: rates spiked by 6.1 percent compared to their 2014 rates.
“That’s a massive hit to the bottom line of a family,” wrote Kristina Ribali of the Foundation for Government Accountability. “Seeing a health insurance bill that is nearly a quarter larger than it was in 2015 means that many families would have to cut back on other needed spending in order to cover those increased health care costs.”
Portland is not the only city that could see a double digit jump in their premium rates. Albuquerque, N.M., which saw a decrease of -11.8 percent in their 2015 rates, could see their premiums climb to 11 percent next year.
Other states that are predicted to see a bump in their premium rates for 2016 include: Burlington, Vt., with an increase of 7.3 percent in 2016; Richmond, Va., with an increase of 6.3 percent in 2016; Baltimore, Md., which will see rates go up 5.8 percent next year; Washington, D.C., with a 2.8 percent jump; Providence, R.I, which will see rates go up 1.0 percent; and Portland, Maine, up 0.8 percent.
Only four cities will see a decrease in their premiums rates, according to the analysis: Detroit, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Hartford, Ct.
“This news is further proof of President Obama’s broken healthcare promises. The president promised that his healthcare plan would save families $2,500 per year,” Curtis Kalin, spokesman for Citizens Against Government Waste, told the Washington Free Beacon in an emailed statement.
“Reality has proven otherwise. Additionally, millions of Americans have not been able to keep the doctor they like or the healthcare plan they like. This kind of bait and switch does tremendous damage to the president’s credibility and reveals the foolishness of the federal government’s entire healthcare takeover.”
The post Obamacare Premiums Could Rise by 23 Percent Next Year appeared first onWashington Free Beacon.
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MOSCOW (AP) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday strongly defended Moscow's military assistance to the Syrian government, saying it's impossible to defeat the Islamic State group without cooperating with Damascus.
Putin's statement comes amid the signs of an ongoing Russian military buildup in Syria, which the U.S. says signals ...
Russian officials said hackers were behind a "very powerful" cyberattack that targeted the websites of both the Kremlin and the Central Election Commission over the weekend.
Neither of the websites were breached or knocked offline, according to the Russian government, and representatives said the attacks were significant and thought to ...
WASHINGTON (AP) - Secretary of State John Kerry has made his third phone call to his Russian counterpart in the last 10 days, a State Department official said, seeking to clarify the intent of Moscow's military buildup in Syria, and warning that continued support for President Bashar Assad will only ...
WASHINGTON (AP) - Defense Secretary Ash Carter has so far played no role in the U.S. discussions with Russia over its military build-up in Syria and the complications that could have on coalition airstrikes against Islamic State militants there.
Carter has not spoken with Russia Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Pentagon ...
AUSTIN, Texas — The head of the CIA said Tuesday that U.S. intelligence officials are wary that Iran may attempt to violate this summer's nuclear accord by outsourcing elements of its clandestine nuclear program to another rogue state such as North Korea, or by colluding with Pyongyang toward the secret ...
Moscow has attached credibility to reports that it reserves the right to commence military operations in Syria, following growing evidence that it has increased the supplies of military hardware and enhanced the numbers of military advisors working in-country (see EDM,September 4, 10). This was coupled by reports that the Russian Armed Forces were deploying in, albeit, relatively small numbers to reinforce the Tartus depot and an airfield near Latakia. The identification of elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, based in Sevastopol, appeared to support the assertion that preparations were under way to boost the overall number of Russian forces in Syria. And this immediately resulted in questions as to Moscow’s future intentions, which were publicly raised by officials from the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Novaya Gazeta, September 5).
Russian media picked up on such Western reporting as well as off-the-record comments by diplomats and examined the case in favor of unilateral military operations in Syria. Broadly, the argument that developed set out the circumstantial evidence that Russia’s Armed Forces are preparing a forward operating base in Syria in readiness to commence combat operations. The “evidence” centers on photos, videos, and other information alleging an increase in military supplies to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime as well as suggestions that Russian troops are engaging in combat. Most analysis confirms the equipment transfers, dispatch of military advisors and the presence of Special Forces, with an overall “so what?” (Ekho Moskvy, September 7).
The Barack Obama administration reacted to these reports, in part, by Secretary of State John Kerry telephoning his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to express concern over the prospect of Russia escalating the conflict in Syria. However, President Vladimir Putin refused to rule out possible action at some future point. Clearly, the US and NATO response to Russia’s increased military activities in Syria is more precisely a “reaction” to what else Putin may have in mind. One commentary noted the important symbolic step of selecting Sevastopol’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, which was involved in seizing Crimea without engaging in combat: the underlying message was that Moscow hopes to avoid entering the Syrian civil war, but is willing to use the threat to leverage its diplomatic credence (Warfiles.ru, September 7).
Russian analysts also considered reports of a “military build-up” in Syria, questioning how it might fit Moscow’s strategic interests. Here, the intrigues surrounding such military activity were tied to “Putin’s plan” to recreate the international anti–Islamic State coalition to include al-Assad, along with Russia and Iran. Moscow-based experts were skeptical that this would gain traction in Washington, or that Putin would risk unilateral action. For example, Sergei Karaganov, the founder of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, said that Moscow was considering joining the coalition against the Islamic State (IS), but its Western partners have been “unwelcoming.” Karaganov emphatically stated, “They are reluctant to accept proposals from Putin, whom they want to contain.” He added that he does not expect Russia to choose the path of unilateral military action in Syria, which would entail “enormous risks.” Colonel (retired) Igor Korotchenko, the editor of Natsional’nyy Zhurnal Oborony, said that while Russia has supplied al-Assad’s government with weapons it would not opt for military operations in Syria. “Russia will not send its troops to the Middle East, it is absolutely excluded.” Korotchenko added “It is the US’s problem. Russia will not pay for that with its soldiers’ lives.” Other interpretations were more conspiratorial. Alexander Golts, an independent military analyst, suggested that Putin sees joining the anti-IS coalition as a mechanism through which to achieve a rapprochement with the West, arguing that he wants to end Russia’s “isolation” (Novaya Gazeta, September 5).
Alexander Khramchikhin, the Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, highlighted the potential complexity of any future Russian military operation in Syria saying that even partial involvement in the form of air strikes against the Islamic State would demand Russian access to airfields in Iran and Iraq. Khramchikhin posited the idea that Moscow could send Su-24 and Su-25 platforms to conduct strikes against IS targets, but that this would involve accessing airfields in Syria as well as neighboring countries, along with coalition support, information exchange, and force protection augmented by deploying Russian Airborne Forces. Yet, Khramchikhin concluded that even such limited action would eventually lead to the deployment of Russian Ground Forces in Syria, and he predicted heavy losses should that occur (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, September 9).
It is clear, therefore, in these various Russian assessments that the country’s defense specialists remain highly skeptical about the threat of Moscow using force in Syria. The risks are seen as high and no one wants to be reminded of the experience in Afghanistan. Within Russia, the response to the numerous reports concerning the possible emergence of a Russian “expeditionary force” in Syria has prompted more guessing than analysis (Dozhd TV, September 5).
A number of important elements are missing in the recent narrative, however. These relate to the precise nature of the timing of Moscow upping the ante in Syria, the exact role of the naval facility in Tartus, de-escalation in Donbas, and the deeper theme of how the Putin regime uses the threat of below-the-threshold military operations to leverage other players’ over-reactive responses. Since 1971, Moscow has had access to a naval depot (not a base) in Tartus. Intermittently, since 2010, Russian defense planners have toyed with the idea of activating a full-blown base, but the Syrian civil war effectively suspended such plans. In spring 2015, al-Assad’s forces suffered a series of defeats near Latakia, the country’s largest port with an airfield nearby used by Russia for humanitarian and military hardware transfers. This deterioration of the security situation close to Latakia led to a recalculation by Moscow concerning the status and importance of the naval depot in Tartus; consequently, throughout August, the number of Russian military personnel was increased from “four” to “several hundred.” Naval infantry appear to have been deployed to Tartus to protect the depot. This is a response to the tactical situation around Latakia and not a signal of impending military operations on behalf of the al-Assad regime, though Russian personnel are involved in supporting the Syrian army (Livejournal, accessed September 14).
Putin uses the threat of force in a gray area between war and peace, which is difficult to deal with at any level. He learned in eastern Ukraine how effective this can prove, and now turns the same instrument to Syria, showing that this tool in his policy making is here to stay.
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The collapse in the size of transfer payments from Central Asians working in the Russian Federation—they are down more than half from last year—is having a domino effect in the region and pushing Eurasia into what will, more than likely, be a political perfect storm. On the one hand, it is placing burdens on the countries there that their vulnerable, authoritarian governments are incapable of addressing. And on the other, it is creating a rapidly expanding new pool of people—both guest workers forced to return from Russia and their families who, in many cases, have been left without any source of income—from which radical Islamist groups could be able to recruit effectively.
Monetary transfers through Russian banks from Russia to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fell 40 percent, 58 percent, and 55 percent, respectively, during the first six months of 2015. And the actual decline was almost certainly larger because guest workers from these countries in Russia, the main source of such transfers, also make use of a variety of informal networks to send their earnings home to their dependents. These informal remittance channels have also seen marked declines, as Russian officials have tried to choke them off; furthermore, instability in Central Asia has made them even less reliable than they have been in the past (Avesta.tj, September 10).
But even these percentage declines do not suggest just how serious they are for the countries involved. In 2014, transfer payments from guest workers in Russia to Tajikistan amounted to $3,349,000,000, or about 36.2 percent of that country’s GDP. If the current trend holds, this year, migrant laborers from Tajikistan will send home less than half of that amount. As a result, their country’s GDP will fall directly by 20 percent. And due to the multiplier effect—such payments are spent and move through the economy several times—this small Central Asian republic’s GDP could decline by even as much as half.
The situation is roughly the same in Kyrgyzstan and only slightly less severe in Uzbekistan, whose domestic economy is larger. Uzbekistan’s guest workers in Russia sent home $5.5 billion, in 2014, but are on track to send home less than half that amount this year.
None of these countries has the economic or political capacity to make up for these shortfalls, at least in the near term. Indeed, the reason that so many citizens of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan went to Russia in the first place was not just that wages are higher in the Russian Federation than in their homelands. It was also due to a lack of any other jobs at home.
The pressure on Bishkek, Dushanbe and Tashkent arises not only from the decrease in the size of transfer payments—as well as the declining tax revenues that these three capitals extracted from the population as a result—but also from the returning guest workers themselves. The exact figures about the number of returnees are a matter of dispute, with some Central Asian governments suggesting higher statistics and others lower ones. But clearly, many tens of thousands of the more than a million guest workers from each of these three countries are now returning home, without their former incomes and with the negative experience of often being mistreated for what Russians often assume was their Islamic nature. These frustrated returnees, moreover, are now placing new demands on their governments to provide services.
None of these governments will likely be able to find jobs or provide sufficient social welfare payments for all returning migrant laborers in order to compensate them for their loss of incomes and, hence, standard of living that these people and their families have come to depend on and expect. Rather, these returnees are almost certain to rejoin the ranks of the large number of poor and impoverished populations from which they emerged to go to the Russian Federation.
But precisely because they had demonstrated initiative in the first place by leaving in order to earn a living for themselves and their families, these returning guest workers are likely to demonstrate initiative in another way now that they have come back: some may now look to radical Islamists, who promise justice and fill the ranks of the Islamic State and Taliban-related groups from Afghanistan. To the extent they do (see EDM, September 9), they and not outsiders from these countries’ southern neighbors or from the Middle East could become a major component of the popular threats to these governments (see EDM, September 9).
And there is another probability as well: At least some of these returning and impoverished guest laborers are likely to be attracted by promises of high salaries from those seeking to recruit them as soldiers for militant extremist units in the Middle East, South Asia and elsewhere—thus filling the ranks of radical Islamist groups far from their homelands. After all, they have shown themselves willing to travel in order to make money in the past.
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CNN International |
Exclusive: China warns US surveillance plane
CNN International The series of man-made islands and the massive Chinese military build-up on them have alarmed the Pentagon, which is carrying out the surveillance flights in order to make clear the U.S. does not recognize China's territorial claims. The militarized ... |
 Daily Kos |
Open thread for night owls—How the CIA collaborated with filmmakers of 'Zero ...
Daily Kos The previously undisclosed detail about [screenwriter Mark] Boal's phone call to the CIA was included in more than 100 pages of internal CIA documents obtained exclusively by VICE News in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit. |
 Consortium News |
US Intel Vets Decry CIA's Use of Torture
Consortium News Torture defenders are back on the offensive publishing a book by ex-CIA leaders rebutting a Senate report that denounced the brutal tactics as illegal, inhumane and ineffective. Now, in a memo to President Obama, other U.S. intelligence veterans are ... |
all 10 news articles »
 Esquire.com (blog) |
Spies Have Feelings, Too
Esquire.com (blog) CIA Director John Brennan suggested that negative public opinion and "misunderstanding" about the US intelligence community is in part "because of people who are trying to undermine" the mission of the NSA, CIA, FBI and other agencies. These people ... |
170 Letters from CIA Double Agent Aldrich Ames go up for Auction at Lion Heart ...
Fine Books & Collections Magazine CIA double agent Aldrich Ames, considered by most espionage experts a traitor of historic significance, spied for and collaborated with the Soviet Union and Russia for nine years until his arrest in 1994. The highest paid turncoat in American history ... |
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CIA's Daily Briefings to the President Shed New Light on Johnson and Kennedy ...
University of Texas at Austin News 16, the Central Intelligence Agency will release previously classified daily briefings it gave to Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and John F. Kennedy in the 1960s. CIA Director John O. Brennan and Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper will ... |
Man sentenced for placing $70 million in unauthorized charges on victims’ phone bills.
 KXAN.com |
CIA declassifies Presidential briefings at LBJ Library event
KXAN.com The release coincided with a public event at the LBJ Presidential Library on Tuesday hosted by CIA Director John Brennan and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. The President's Daily Briefing or “PDB” contains intelligence analysis on ... |
In photos selected Tuesday by Wall Street Journal editors, a woman walks across mud after a flash flood in Arizona, a migrant pushes another in a wheelbarrow in Serbia, and more.
Radha Mohan Singh says yogic farming 'empowers seeds with the help of positive thinking'
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Poll: Nearly Half of Colombians Fear Venezuela War Over Border Crisis by webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Nearly half of Colombians fear a diplomatic dispute that began last month when Venezuela closed several border crossings and deported thousands of Colombians, could lead to war, a survey released on Tuesday showed. Forty-three percent of people in a Cifras y Conceptos poll published by Caracol Radio and Red + Noticias said they fear the crisis could lead to military conflict between the two countries. Twenty percent said they were afraid more Colombians would be expelled from...
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Vietnam Mulls Clarification of 'Anti-state' Lawsby webdesk@voanews.com (Trung Nguyen)
The Chairman of Vietnam’s legislature has surprised many by saying his country should clarify its so-called anti-state laws in order to prevent arbitrary arrests that violate human and civil rights. During a debate on the revision of criminal laws Monday, Nguyen Sinh Hung said, “We should not let the [overly vague] laws exist, paving the way for virtually anyone to be detained.” Such a move would be a major shift for Vietnamese authorities. The remarks have sparked a mixed...
Preventing History from Repeating; US Reaffirms Solidarity with Estonia by webdesk@voanews.com (Carla Babb)
The cheers for Russia in Ukraine’s annexed Crimea peninsula were, for many Estonians, an eerie reminder of their past. “It is history repeating itself, because in 1940 when Estonia was occupied by the Soviet Union, it was basically the same scenario,” Estonian Army 2nd Lieutenant Simmo Sarr said. Back then, a Russian coup d’état was made to look like a popular revolt. Unfair elections followed, which put the Communist party in charge of the Estonian government. The new...
Video footage of migrants on Hungary's border on Sept. 15, 2015.
Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/web-video-migrant-crisis-on-hungarys-border/2964436.html
 Syracuse.com |
FBI arrest Philadelphia teen in ISIS-inspired plot against Pope Francis
Syracuse.com Pope Francis smiles after getting a garland from a child as he arrives for an interfaith meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Jan. 13, 2015. (Saurabh Das | The Associated Press). Print Email · Ben Axelson | baxelson@syracuse.com By Ben Axelson ... NJ teen arrested in threat against popePhilly.com UPDATE: 15-Year-Old Planned ISIS-Style Attack On Pope During N.J. Area VisitPatch.com ISIS-inspired teen had explosives, planned attack on Pope, bulletin saysNew Jersey 101.5 FM Radio NJ.com |
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 NBCNews.com |
Russian Hacker Drinkman Pleads Guilty in Largest Data Breach
Bloomberg A Russian hacker pleaded guilty in the biggest data-breach case in U.S. history, admitting he helped steal 160 million credit-card numbers. Vladimir Drinkman, 34, said Tuesday in federal court in Camden, New Jersey, that he conspired with four other ... Russian man pleads guilty in US in major hacking schemeKansas City Star all 25 news articles » |
 USA TODAY |
Meeting king, Obama backs 'strong and unified' Spain
USA TODAY WASHINGTON — President Obama commended the King of Spain for the work that Spain has done to address the refugee and migration crisis there — and also expressed a preference that Spain remain united. "Spain has worked hard to deal with this issue ... Obama cites need for cooperation on Syrian refugeesMiami Herald The most glamorous first ladies of the West: Spain's Queen Letizia meets ...Daily Mail |
Zee News
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It was the warmest of welcomes: as thousands of refugees and migrants arrived at train stations across Germany last week, they were greeted with applause and singing by crowds of German locals who had gathered for their arrival, bearing supplies, food and good wishes.
As video footage of the various arrivals spread across the Internet, the heartwarming greeting was lauded as an example for the rest of Europe. Instead of refusing to allow the desperate migrants in, many of whom are fleeing war-torn countries, Germany — along with Sweden — has announced or maintained generous policies. Germany has taken in more than 99,000 refugees so far this year, with tens of thousands in the last week alone. The incoming numbers were so great, that Germany announced on Sept. 12 that it was introducing temporary border controls — not to keep migrants out, but to stem the overwhelming tide and maintain order. Even so, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that they could welcome a million in total by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Sweden has already accepted 65,000 refugees this year and has taken in more lone children refugees relative to its population than any other European country.
In contrast to German hospitality, critics say the rest of Europe has refused to do its share. Britain has committed to accepting only 4,000 refugees a year until 2020. Hungary has built a wall along one of its borders to keep migrants out, while the Netherlands has instituted some border controls. Slovakia has taken in a mere 61 Syrians fleeing the conflict at home, and its government has insisted that it only wants to take “Christian refugees.”
But while Germany and Sweden have made commitments to take in hundreds of thousands of refugees between them, opening their doors is just the start of a much longer process.
“These people will need more of course than a warm pullover and a warm welcome,” Norbert Trosien, an associate protection officer with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Berlin, tells TIME. “They’ll need to be accepted also in the long run.”
It’s a task that’s already weighing on the minds of officials. On Sept. 8, Germany’s interior minister Thomas de Maizière said in parliament, “Let’s not deny that great challenges will follow on our initial friendly welcome of the newcomers — challenges that will have to be met in everyday life.”
The immediate cost of absorbing the asylum-seekers alone is enormous. Asylum-seekers will be placed around the country and applications for their asylum need to be processed, which, in Germany, will take an average of 5.3 months to complete. Both Sweden and Germany provide refugees with housing, government allowances and language lessons, all of which comes at a cost to the state. Germany has already announced that it has allocated $6.6 billion to cope with the incoming refugees and migrants.
Then comes the stickier matter of long-term integration. Language and cultural differences could potentially lead to roadblocks for many refugees hoping to fully settle in their new homes—at least right away. In Sweden, it can take foreigners with a non-E.U. background years to find work. Even after years in the country, immigrants in Sweden are far more likely to be unemployed than their Swedish counterparts.
In Germany, foreigners also face challenges when it comes to integrating. A 2009 study by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development found that the immigrant groups in the country who were least integrated with German society tended to be worse educated, worse paid and had a higher rate of unemployment than native Germans and groups that had integrated better (mostly western Europeans).
And then there’s the cultural backlash. Despite the warm welcome at train stations, German officials have reported more than 200 attacks on asylum-seekers and facilities meant to help them this year, with another suspected arson attack on a refugee center reported on Sept. 8 inRockensussra.
Though Sweden has had a generous policy on immigration for years, the far-right, anti-immigrant political party the Sweden Democrats has risen in approval polls to 25% in recent months. There has also been a rise in racist and xenophobic attacks in the country. Earlier this year, three mosques around Sweden were firebombed within a month. In August, after a mother and son were stabbed to death in an Ikea store in the Swedish city of Vasteras, allegedly by an Eritrean asylum-seeker, there were several reported attacks on nearby asylum centers.
But the influx of migrants and refugees also has its upsides. Across Europe, countries are grappling with aging populations and declining birth rates. According to the UNHCR, in 2013, 51% of refugees across the globe were under 18 years old. As Morgan Johansson, Sweden’s justice and migration minister, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, “More people are growing older and older and that means that in the long run we need people.” By welcoming high numbers of refugees in, Germany and Sweden could avert a demographic crisis as their workforce ages into retirement.
So what needs to be done to ease integration for migrants and refugees? According to UNHCR’s Trosien, governments are already working to increase and expand their resources for the influx of newcomers. But, he says, successful integration will also come down to how much civil society will continue to welcome and support the migrants, ensuring that they don’t feel isolated in their new homes.
“We have seen a lot of pictures of people welcoming refugees right now and being very receptive and very welcoming,” he says. “I think what is very crucial that this wave of solidarity is converted into more long-term engagement.”
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Laura Campbell, 24, from Chelsea, stole the cash by voiding customers' receipts while she worked at the Thomas Cubitt in Belgravia. She has admitted theft but says she took £9,000.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has published a series of cringe-worthy selfies on his Instagram account to celebrate his 50th birthday.
Sir Elton said: 'Thank-you to President Vladimir Putin for reaching out and speaking via telephone with me today. I look to forward to meeting with you face-to-face to discuss LGBT equality in Russia.'
Sickening video footage shared on social media showed masked militants interviewing the 39-year-old man before dragging him out into the street and shooting him in the back of the head.
Sir Elton John says he was contacted on the telephone by Vladimir Putin after telling the BBC he wanted to discuss gay rights with the Russian leader.
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The Australian government has confirmed it has launched its first air strikes against IS targets inside Syria.
Guatemala's former first lady Sandra Torres will stand against television comedian Jimmy Morales in next month's presidential run-off vote.
Queues form at a crossing point between Germany and Austria after Germany reinstates border controls for people travelling within the passport-free Schengen zone, essentially reversing its open-door policy to Syrians.
Germany, Austria and Slovakia called for a special European summit next week on the migrant crisis, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel warning that "time is running out."
Serbia minister: Key Hungarian border crossing has to remain open
Bulger movie to be screened as Massachusetts theater; star Johnny Depp expected to attend
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Top Russian official urges state-owned arms producers to battle alcohol abuse in the workplace
Elton John: Russia's Vladimir Putin phoned after I requested a meeting to discuss gay rights
The singer took to Instagram to thank the Russian President.
AP interview: Russia's ex-railways chief says nation's economic downturn to last 2 more years
Mayor of Bucharest suspended from post after being arrested on suspicion of taking bribes
Subway says co-founder Fred DeLuca dead at 67 after being diagnosed with leukemia
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AP: Hungarian police forced journalist to delete footage of police dog attacking refugee
Allegations are that intel presented rosier view of terror fight.
Saudi Arabia partly blames construction giant Binladin Group over Mecca crane disaster
???Master plan??? didn???t work out for FBI spy hunter-turned-spy.
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