Another angle: Shoigu positions himself as a successor


Sorry, but soft power is not a part of the Russian tradition

There is another angle in understanding and interpreting the recent events, from the point of view on internal Russian politics and exacerbating power struggle between the bulldogs under the Kremlin's heavy and dusty rugs. No hockey matches and vigorous exercises in Sochi gym can hide the fact: Putin's physical (which is a separate issue of its own) and political (eroded by sanctions, oil price, ruble, etc.) health is failing and the issue of succession becomes the pivotal one.
The source of Putin's political strength and power is in his Godfather's ability to maintain a careful balance (on which his own political survival depends) between the competing factions of Russian ruling elites: the so called "siloviki" - military and security players (Shoigu, Patrushev, Bortnikov, Fradkov and others) and "civiliki" - civilian elites, relatively moderate and pro-Western technocrats - Medvedev, who is a nominal successor presently and his team.
Sergey Ivanov is in the position of the power behind the throne and the chief kingmaker, possibly the future king.
Russian military, enraged by the"treacherous loss of the Empire", humiliated in Afghanistan and left out of the oligarchic division of post-Soviet spoils, recently acquired the revanchistic character and outlook, after been fed their (and considerable) portion of new oil riches. They got rid of the civilian manager and reformer Serdyukov (see serdyukov affair) and chose Shoigu, the popular and skillful politician, who knows how to please his superiors and to give enough room for action to his subordinates, as their chief.
It is possible that the grab of Crimea was initiated by the Russian military on their own and Putin was forced to accept and appropriate this action, otherwise they could choose another flag-bearer (that what essentially he is, in addition to being "a thug and a gangster", although a much more complex entity as the subject of study in political personology. ).
Now, with events in Syria, with their obvious geopolitical and possibly economic (hike in oil price) benefits, in addition to stirring up patriotic fever, for Russians, Shoigu positions himself as a logical and worthy Putin's successor.
Russian success in the Middle East (beyond the shows) would mean the strengthening and the future domination of the anti-Western revanchist military faction, its failure would mean the "second Afghanistan", with similar consequences, and strengthening of technocratic civilian faction. That's how it looks like from this angle.

M.N.


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