Syria's Bashar Assad assures Vladimir Putin in phone call on truce details
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BEIRUT (AP) — The Syrian president on Wednesday assured Russia's Vladimir Putin of Damascus' commitment to a Russia-U.S. proposed truce, even as a spokesman for a Saudi-backed alliance of Syrian opposition and rebel factions expressed "major concerns" about the ceasefire, due to begin later this week.
Salem Al Meslet, spokesman ...
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"Given ...
Obama Courts Chaos With His Taliban Fantasyby therearenosunglasses
Obama at Bagram
Obama Courts Chaos With His Taliban Fantasy
Mr. Haqqani, the director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., was Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S., 2008-11.
Lt. Gen. John Nicholson, the recently nominated commander of American and NATO troops in Afghanistan, has confirmed what many of us have feared. He told the Senate Armed Services Committee during his Jan. 28 confirmation hearing that security in Afghanistan is worsening.
The Taliban are emboldened by the prospect of a U.S. withdrawal. On Monday the United Nations reported that 2015 civilian casualties from terrorist attacks in Afghanistan reached an all-time high since 2001, a 4% increase over 2014.
The Obama administration pins its hopes on China and Pakistan persuading the fundamentalist Islamist group to negotiate the end of its insurgency. Yet the Taliban’s main demand—the establishment of what they deem to be an Islamic order—is nonnegotiable. They talk not with the intention of giving up fighting but to regroup and attack again.
Liberal Americans, encouraged by the Taliban’s main backer, Pakistan, assume that there is a deal to be made. This is the same mirage the U.S. has pursued since the Taliban emerged in 1993 out of the anti-Soviet mujahedeen movement and initially found favor among many Afghans disenchanted by the corruption and lawlessness of the first post-Soviet regime.
The Clinton administration believed the Taliban’s aspirations were limited to asserting ethnic Pashtun supremacy and were nationalist, not Islamist, in nature. The Taliban’s subsequent ruthlessness and imposition of Islamic law once they took power didn’t get the Clinton administration’s full attention until 1998, when the group’s decision to host Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda resulted in U.N. sanctions. That left Pakistan as the only country with full diplomatic relations with the Taliban regime.
Then, as now, a Democratic administration tried to negotiate with the Taliban through Pakistan. This time, too, the Taliban’s precondition seems to be that the U.N. withdraw the post 9/11 resolution that froze the movement’s assets—estimated in 2001 to be $100 million in the U.S. alone, with additional assets in Gulf states and in Pakistan—and limited international travel by its leaders. The Taliban have since increased their assets to at least $400 million through drug trafficking, kidnapping for ransom and by extorting U.S. and Afghan-government contractors.
Although Pakistan felt compelled to join the international coalition against al Qaeda and the Taliban after 9/11, it never severed ties with the Taliban. Most Taliban leaders ended up on the Pakistani side of the 1,398-mile-long Pakistan-Afghan border. Some of them secured protection from tribes straddling the two countries; and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) protected others, who lived openly in Quetta and Peshawar.
The ISI wanted to keep using the Taliban as an Afghan proxy in Pakistan’s perennial competition for influence with India. The U.S. couldn’t or wouldn’t move against the fugitive Taliban leaders for fear of violating Pakistan’s sovereignty. (The search for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was a one-time exception.)
The Obama administration initially spoke of coercing Pakistan into giving up support for the Taliban. In 2011 then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Pakistan couldn’t keep “snakes” in its backyard.
The very next year, President Obama announced a schedule for U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. That made the Taliban and their Pakistani backers intransigent; they knew that all they had to do was wait. With another U.S. troop drawdown in Afghanistan by the end of 2016, leaving a small force of some 5,500, it is no wonder that Taliban attacks in provinces bordering Pakistan have increased.
The Obama administration’s decision to negotiate with the Taliban through Pakistan was embraced by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani after his election in 2014. China, Pakistan’s major international supporter, was brought in as a facilitator, arranging meetings in Beijing between the Taliban and the Afghan government. China was expected to broker a deal involving Kabul, Islamabad and Pakistan’s Afghan proxies.
Yet Pakistan may no longer be able even to bring a unified Taliban movement to the negotiating table. The Taliban have splintered, and factions affiliated with ISIS have emerged to compete with groups tied to al Qaeda. Although the Taliban continue to depend upon the ISI for money, training and arms, it is becoming clear that at least some Taliban leaders would rather follow an independent course.
Former Taliban negotiator Tayeb Agha reportedly resigned last year after the election of new Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, saying Taliban leaders should relocate to Afghanistan from Pakistan to “preserve their independence.”
This is not the only reason talks will likely fail. Afghan security forces and intelligence services don’t trust Pakistan because of the haven it provides the Taliban. The Taliban look upon ISI with suspicion because of its connection with the U.S.—further diminishing Pakistan’s capacity to broker peace in Afghanistan.
Faced with international pressure as well as growing internal threats from the Pakistani Taliban, Pakistan has cleared out some known jihadist sanctuaries in the border region of North Waziristan, depriving Afghan groups such as the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani network of their historical base of operations. The assumption in Washington is that Pakistan wouldn’t like to see the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan.
But a similar assumption in 1993 was shown to be naïve as the Taliban marched into Kabul with full Pakistani backing. Neither is there any sign today that Pakistan’s military is willing to give up its decades-long pursuit of paramountcy over Afghanistan. So unless the U.S. is willing to keep sufficient troops in Afghanistan, the outcome of the “fight and talk” policy now being pursued by the Taliban and the U.S. will only feed chaos. Or a return of the Taliban as a fait accompli when the troops finally leave.
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Israel's defense minister is accusing Iran of building an international terror network that includes "sleeper cells" that are stockpiling arms, intelligence and operatives to be ready to strike on command in places including Europe and the U.S.
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Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news.
IRAQ & SYRIA
Cessation of hostilities in Syria. Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford, and CIA Director John Brennan have all expressed doubts that Russia will abide by the terms of the ceasefire in Syria, which is scheduled to begin this weekend. [Wall Street Journal’s Adam Entous] Turkey is likewise not optimistic about the agreement’s chances of success. [Al Jazeera] But some commentators have taken a more hopeful stance on the deal. [The Guardian’s Mary Dejevsky]
Shoring up the deal. Syrian President Assad told Russian President Putin that his government will assist in implementing the ceasefire. [Reuters] But a spokesman for a Saudi-backed alliance of Syrian opposition groups says there are “major concerns” that Russia and the Syrian government will continue to strike at mainstream rebels during the truce. [Associated Press] Meanwhile, the US government is drumming up support among rebel groups and working to ensure humanitarian aid is available to besieged areas. [US State Department]
There is a paradox that is hobbling peace negotiations in Syria: the same countries pushing for peace are the ones fueling the war, according to the head of the UN-backed Independent Syria Commission. [Wall Street Journal’s Farnaz Fassihi] The New York Times Editorial Board argues that much of the deal hinges on Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he has not proven to be reliable in peace efforts so far.
“Plan B” for peace in Syria involves a partition of the country. US Secretary of State John Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that he will move towards that plan if the cessation of hostilities falls through or if there is no genuine shift to a transitional government in the coming months. [The Guardian’s Patrick Wintour]
Russia holds the cards to peace in Aleppo, argue Julien Barnes-Dacy and Jeremy Shapiro. [Politico] But Russia’s endgame in the region is still not entirely clear. [New York Times’ Neil MacFarquhar]
Kurdish forces in Syria may have access to advanced US-made anti-tank missiles according to a photo posted to social media yesterday. The fighters were posing with an FGM-148 Javelin in northern Syria. If confirmed, it could signal a marked escalation in US material being funneled to local rebel groups. [Washington Post’s Thomas Gibbons Neff]
Islamic State attacks are on the rise in Syria despite intensifying Russian airstrikes in the country. [NBC News’ Corky Siemaszko]
Kurdish special forces rescued a 16-year-old Swedish girl in Iraq. She left her home last summer to travel to Syria with her boyfriend to join the Islamic State, but eventually wound up in Mosul, Iraq. [Washington Post’s Loveday Morris; New York Times’ Tim Arango]
SURVEILLANCE, PRIVACY & TECHNOLOGY
Apple v. FBI. San Bernardino County prosecutors have contacted family members of the victims of the attack about joining the case against Apple. [Reuters’ Dan Levine and Rory Carroll]. Meanwhile, the Justice Department has requested that Apple assist it in unlocking a further nine iPhones. A lawyer for Apple has confirmed that it is resisting the requests in at least seven cases. [New York Times’ Eric Lichtblau and Joseph Goldstein]
The Senate Intelligence Committee is considering legislation that would oblige companies to unlock phones if ordered to do so by a court. The discussions were part of an ongoing effort to produce a bill that gives law enforcement improved access to encrypted data. [The Hill’s Cory Bennett]
“We should all take a deep breath and talk to each other, rather than use a lawsuit to circumvent the critical and necessary police discussions.” Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) has urged FBI Director James Comey to withdraw the order against Apple. [The Hill’s Cory Bennett]
Has encryption gone too far? The latest versions of the iPhone and other devices use encryption methods that the developers themselves cannot unlock. Security expert Bruce Schneier and Denise Zheng from the Center for Strategic and International Studies debate whether this level of security is actually needed. [New York Times] Daisuke Wakabayashi describes how Apple’s stance on data privacy has evolved over the past five years. [Wall Street Journal]
Italy’s foreign minister has asked for “clarifications” over the NSA’s secret monitoring of conversations between the Italian and Israeli prime ministers in 2010 and 2011. The US Ambassador to Italy has promised to address Italy’s concerns “immediately.” [The Hill’s Julian Hattem]
Former NSA director Michael Hayden’s memoir provides a fresh perspective on Stellarwind, the intelligence program that warrantlessly collected details of citizens’ communications. Hayden, who created the program in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, says previous accounts have been “over-dramatized” and that the program was both “lawful and useful.” [The Daily Beast’s Shane Harris]
“It could keep people out who are not a threat.” Concerns have been raised over tools being developed by the Department of Homeland Security that more robustly analyze the social media accounts of those applying for refugee status or seeking asylum in the US. The fear is that legitimate criticism of US foreign policy, or even having friends who are sympathetic toward terrorists, could expose applicants to “unwarranted scrutiny.” [New York Times’ Ron Nixon]
GUANTANAMO BAY
President Obama sent his plan to close Guantánamo Bay to Congress on Tuesday. President Obama said that keeping the facility open “is contrary to our values” and “undermines our standing in the world.” [New York Times’ Charlie Savage and Julie Hirschfeld Davis; Miami Herald’s James Rosen] He now faces the challenge of trying to persuade Congress to support the plan by the end of the year, a task the New York Times editorial board considers feasible, despite the “reflexive and thoughtless” opposition of Republican lawmakers.
Those in favor. Democrat lawmakers called the plan “practical,” with Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) stating that “Congress must now work with the administration in good faith to effectuate closure.” [The Hill’s Rebecca Kheel] Hillary Clinton has backed the plan, calling it “a sign of strength and resolve.” [The Hill’s Ben Kamisar] UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein also released a statement welcoming the plan, but added that it is important that it does not result in any prisoners remaining in indefinite detention without charge. [UN News Centre]
Those against. Almost as soon as the plan was submitted, Republican leaders began to denounce it, with Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) going so far as to crush the plan and throw it in the trash. [The Hill’s Jordan Fabian and Christina Wong] Human rights groups have also criticized the plan, despite supporting the intention behind it, calling the proposal to move detainees to the mainland to continue their detention without charge “reckless and ill-advised.” [The Hill’s Rebecca Kheel] Americans are largely against the closure of a detention center that “plays an important role in keeping America safe” and Obama will not succeed in closing it if he follows the law, argues the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board.
A resolution that would authorize a lawsuit against the Obama administration if it follows through on plans to transfer Guantánamo Bay detainees to the US has been introduced by House Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC). [The Hill’s Christina Marcos]
A former Guantánamo Bay detainee was among those arrested on suspicion of recruiting for Islamic State by Spanish authorities yesterday. He was described as “a leader who was trained in handling weapons, explosives and in military tactics.” [Associated Press]
AFGHANISTAN
US airstrikes have assisted in breaking the deadlock between the Afghan military and the Taliban north of Kabul, allowing repair crews to access the area and restore electricity supplies that have been disrupted for the past three weeks. [New York Times’ David Jolly]
The planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan is increasing the threat of terrorist attacks, the commander of American and NATO troops in Afghanistan has warned. His comments coincide with the findings of a UN report. [Wall Street Journal’s Husain Haqqani]
The UN has urged all sides involved in the fighting to avoid targeting hospitals, following two incidents in the last week. [UN News Centre]
SOUTH CHINA SEA
China has deployed fighter jets to Woody Island as part of its escalating “militarization” of the South China Sea. A spokesperson for US Pacific Command commented that fighter-jet deployment is “not a surprise and has been going on for the last few years,” although it is “still part of a disturbing trend.” [Wall Street Journal’s Gordon Lubold and Chun Han Wong; CNN’s Barbara Starr and Ray Shanchez]
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Secretary of State John Kerry discussed “the importance of reducing tensions and maintaining the space necessary for diplomatic solutions to the competing claims in the South China Sea” during a meeting yesterday. [US State Department]
LIBYA
Western powers must “move carefully” if a unity government is formed in Libya, the UN has warned. Any new government will be “weak” to begin with, and members will have “very intense” anti-foreigner feelings, and should not be forced to immediately back foreign strikes. [Wall Street Journal’s Laurence Norman]
Forces loyal to the Libyan government have wrested a “key central neighborhood” of Benghazi from militant groups, including the Islamic State, according to their own reports. [Al Jazeera]
Libya is “fast becoming the new frontier of the western war against Islamic State,” as demonstrated by recent airstrikes carried out by the US. [The Guardian]
NORTH KOREA
The US and China have made “important progress” on agreeing to a UN sanctions resolution against North Korea. Both countries agree that the goal of the resolution is to persuade North Korea to restart discussions on ending its nuclear program and rejoining the international community. [Agence France-Press; BBC]
Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has said that he “would use WMD” if he “thought his regime were challenged.” Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti told the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday that tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest level in 20 years. [CNN’s Ryan Browne]
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
“Human machine teams” and other “exotic weapons” are the best way to combat Russian and Chinese militaries, the Pentagon is saying. Using revolutionary weapons systems to “inject enough uncertainty in the minds of the Russians and the Chinese” is the “definition of conventional deterrence,” explained Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work. [Washington Post’s David Ignatius]
The US has resettled just 841 Syrian refugees since September 2015 when President Obama said 10,000 would be welcomed during the fiscal year. While the number is expected to rise significantly, the administration will likely struggle to meet its stated goal. [The Nation’s John Knefel]
Israeli interrogators are “systematically” subjecting Palestinian detainees to “degrading” and “inhuman” treatment both in the field and at the Shikma detention facility in Ashkelon, a report from HaMoked and B’T selem, Israeli human rights groups, has found. [Al Jazeera’s Allison Deger]
A Canadian is one of four arrested on suspicion of violating trade sanctions with Iran by sending technical equipment there, some of which ended up in the hands of the Iranian military. The offenses date back to the period of 2007-2011. [Associated Press]
“A dangerous precedent for upholding international law.” A former UN official has warned that the UK’s dismissal of a UN report on Julian Assange as “ridiculous” and “flawed” will “cost life and human suffering.” [The Guardian’s Owen Bowcott]
“If we do not act to prevent it, it is only a matter of time” before the Islamic State launches a drone attack on a major sporting event. Experts have advised that cheap and accessible drone technology is an opportunity the militant group has already identified. [The Daily Beast’s Clive Irving]
“Why bother to investigate if the militants are already dead?” FBI agents training West African security forces to combat jihadists are discovering there’s a steep learning curve. [Reuters]
A federal judge has ordered that State Department officials and aids to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are to be questioned under oath in relation to the use of a private email server during Clinton’s tenure. [Washington Post’s Spencer S. Hsu; The Hill’s Julian Hattem]
There are signs that longstanding extremist militant groups in Pakistan are changing allegiance to the Islamic State. A senior official has said that they are “trying to nip this in the bud.” [Wall Street Journal’s Saeed Shah]
The UN has apologized for failing to protect those killed during the attack on the UN Mission in South Sudan on February 17. [NPR’s Merrit Kennedy]
President Obama’s call for nuclear “modernization” is really about Russia. Alex Emmons opines that the $1 trillion nuclear weapons program that is part of Obama’s defense budget request for 2017 represents “a return to Cold War-era rivalry” with Russia. [The Intercept]
Turkey “misreads” the Kurds, refusing to acknowledge the differences between the PKK, considered a terrorist group by the US and Turkey, and the Syrian Kurds, which the US sees as a “highly effective adversary” of the Islamic State. The result is that Turkey risks being drawn further into the Syrian war and direct conflict with Russia, says the New York Times editorial board.
Read on Just Security »
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Syrian and American media are reporting that Russian engineers, employed by a Moscow-based contractor with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, are working at a Syrian gas plant under the control of the Islamic State.
Pew Research Center has released a study on the dispute between the FBI and Apple. 51 percent of Americans think Apple should assist the FBI and unlock the..
Apple is waging a vicious war in the court of public opinion against the FBI and its court order mandating Apple to hack an iPhone. It's a big deal, but despite the hand-wringing rhetoric, Apple has failed to make the general ...
As Washington and Moscow join efforts to initiate a ceasefire in war-torn Syria, there is growing evidence that Russian policymakers believe the cost-benefit side of the military intervention is yielding political dividends. Despite the low-cost and low-risk side of the military equation, limited in terms of the deployment size or sustaining this even over the long term, Moscow perceives its diplomatic benefits as outweighing any potential damage. Indeed, as the frequency of bilateral contact on Syria with Washington continues to grow, Moscow interprets this as confirming its indispensability. Russian analysts appreciate the complexity of the conflict, noting that the intervention is unlikely to offer any military solution. Yet, the political and diplomatic impact of Russian air operations, and signs of success in aiding the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reveal careful planning. For instance, Moscow’s air campaign in Syria is reportedly also closely tied to a “multi-layered” intelligence system functioning on the ground alongside its coalition partners (Bmpd.livejournal.com, February 18).
One factor frequently raised by Western experts is the potential for Russia’s assertive foreign and security policies to be scaled back due to straightened economic times. However, despite trimming the overall defense ministry spending plans, there seems little prospect that economic considerations will drive the Kremlin to change its Syria policy. A source close to the defense ministry leadership toldVedomosti that military expenditure will be reduced this year by around 5 percent. Apparently, since the economic crisis began, the defense ministry was compelled to reduce its budget, with an approximate reduction for 2015 at around 3.8 percent. Based on current defense budget plans, the spending levels for 2016 will be cut by 160 billion rubles ($2.1 billion). Although these cuts appear quite significant, it is unlikely to have any real bearing on capabilities or on the ongoing air operations in Syria. Procurement priorities will remain the same, with some delays and projects moved around in order to compensate for such budget cuts. This is likely to delay lower priority areas such as on conventional weapons systems for the Navy and the Air Force. Vedomosti’s interlocutor is convinced that the 5 percent cut to defense expenditures will have no implications for the air campaign in Syria, which he characterizes as planned from the current budget and at relatively low “annual costs” (Vedomosti, February 19).
Clearly, the cost-benefit analysis is viewed very differently in Moscow. One Russian Middle East expert with close ties to the Kremlin offered a range of perspectives on plausible scenarios for ending the Syria conflict. Vitaliy Naumkin, the head of research at the Institute of Oriental Studies, sees no possibility of creating a “no-fly zone” in Syria, nor does he consider as serious the threat of Turkey or Saudi Arabia deploying ground forces in the conflict. On the latter issue, Naumkin believes that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are merely “making loud noises,” and that their “saber-rattling” is designed to pressure Damascus and the countries that support it. Indeed, Naumkin places the emphasis on settling the conflict squarely on the diplomatic process, though some parties to the conflict have vested interests in its continuation: “There is no other way out. Agreement has to be reached in any case because a military victory for anyone, which all conflicting sides are counting on, is in reality impossible. There should be national conciliation in Syria” (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, February 16).
Consequently, the Kremlin-connected expert assesses the conflict as highly unpredictable, with a great number of scenarios for its future course being possible; Naumkin sees the sluggish diplomatic process continuing until the main players (Russia, the United States and the European countries) impose a decision. Yet, there are potential complicating factors, not least Russia-Turkey tensions, or the difficult relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, February 16).
These considerations, perhaps reflecting a sober and realistic picture presented to the Kremlin by the Russian expert community, raise the question as to the nature of Moscow’s calculus in its Syria intervention. It is unclear if the Kremlin ever believed that the military campaign alone could yield success in terms of delivering a resolution of the conflict. What seemed to drive Kremlin policy was the need to protect Russia’s interests, prop up the al-Assad regime, avoid a Libya scenario from unfolding in Syria, and guarantee that Moscow would be included in any conflict settlement. In fact, it seems that far from Russia becoming involved in a “quagmire” in Syria, the longer-term and careful defense planning that preceded the deployment was geared toward avoiding precisely such risks. Two factors are important in this regard: the way Moscow views modern warfare and the lessons it may have drawn from Donbas, as well as the considerable though less well scrutinized intense scale of logistical support for its operations in Syria (Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, February 19).
Moscow has invested considerable effort in supporting its deployments in Syria, especially in relation to using its reformed military logistics system: Materiel-Technical Support (Materialno-Tekhnicheskogeo Obespechniea—MTO). Considerable fine tuning went into the MTO over the past two years. And although problems remain, the operation in Syria has witnessed an efficient development and use of air and sea lines of communication. The combat service support effectively delivered by the MTO could only have been implemented so smoothly on the basis of long-term planning. In this case, it is most likely that contingency plans for military intervention in Syria began several years ago, with an increase in their priority levels approximately one year prior to commencing operations. The advances in the MTO infrastructure are also reflected in the ongoing construction of fueling stations at several airfields (Krymsk, Lipetsk, Engels, Kursk, and Domna Koltsovo), with an additional 23 facilities planned by 2020. The MTO is also involved in the delivery of advanced fuel products to extend the range of cruise missiles, using Detsilin-M fuel (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, February 17; Bmpd.livejournal.com, February 16).
Ultimately, in defense terms, the Kremlin’ use of hard power in Syria is rooted in its asymmetric and limited use of military power. It judged the SAA as the weaker player against the rebels and Islamic State and planned accordingly. Russian air power and on-the-ground training for the SAA gradually shifted the balance away from the rebels, while Russian diplomats rapidly distanced themselves from al-Assad’s aspiration to retake all lost territory: Moscow’s limited use of military power in Syria was never intended to achieve “total victory.”
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*To read Part One, please click here.
Russia’s new representative in the Minsk Contact Group “on the implementation of the peace plan in the East of Ukraine,” Boris Gryzlov, has been closely associated with President Vladimir Putin for nearly 20 years, since Putin was still working in St. Petersburg. The new envoy takes over this assignment with an enhanced status as presidential plenipotentiary. Putin’s appointment of Gryzlov parallels the assignment of Putin’s aide Vladislav Surkov to operate the Russian side of the backchannel with Washington, in which Ukraine and Syria are being discussed as a package. Both envoys replace professional diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in those roles. The Kremlin is taking over control of the negotiations from the foreign ministry in these two negotiating formats, while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continues to represent Russia in the “Normandy” format (seePart One, in EDM, February 19).
Gryzlov headed the pro-Putin political organization Yedinstvo, first in St. Petersburg and then in Russia’s State Duma (1999–2001), the direct precursor to the Yedinaya Rossiya (United Russia) party of power. Gryzlov was internal affairs minister in 2001–2003, and retains, from that time to date, the status of a permanent member of Russia’s Security Council. Gryzlov became Yedinaya Rossiya’s leader and the State Duma’s chairman for two consecutive terms (2003–2011) and chairman of the board of the nuclear energy holding Rosatom (2012 to date). He takes over the Minsk Group assignment from Azamat Kulakhmetov, Russia’s former ambassador to Syria, who continues serving under Gryzlov in the Minsk Group (Kommersant, January 17).
The new envoy practically invited himself to Kyiv for talks with President Petro Poroshenko, on January 11. Gryzlov (just like Surkov) is blacklisted by the European Union, the United States and Ukraine, as part of sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea (prior to Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine’s east, for which they are also co-responsible). Gryzlov’s landing at Kyiv airport also breached Ukraine’s ban on Russian civilian flights in Ukraine’s airspace and their use of Ukrainian airports (Russia has similarly banned Ukrainian flights). Moscow achieved a precedent-setting breach of personal sanctions affecting its top officials. Apart from this, Moscow is asking Kyiv to negotiate about Ukraine’s southeast with a Russian official who has been sanctioned internationally precisely for his role in the seizure of Ukrainian territory. But the Ukrainian government evidently felt that it could not afford to refuse this visit.
Gryzlov’s Kyiv visit amounted to bypassing the Minsk Contact Group, to which he is accredited. On Putin’s behalf he carried some new proposals for discussion with Kyiv bilaterally, without having submitted them in the multilateral Minsk Group. This move could also be seen as attempting to bypass Donetsk-Luhansk (which are represented in the Minsk Group) and offer a more salable deal to Ukraine, without Donetsk-Luhansk’s co-authorship, even if pre-consulted with them.
According to some Kyiv insiders, Gryzlov outlined a “road map” toward the implementation of the Minsk Two armistice, asking Ukraine to undertake the following steps in this order: enact a general amnesty law for war-related crimes in the Russian-controlled territory; negotiate and agree with Donetsk-Luhansk on a law for local “elections” to be staged in that territory; validate those elections’ outcome, and bring the law on the “special procedures for local self-government” in that territory into effect; and finally, enshrine that law in Ukraine’s constitution (Moscow would accept adding that amendment to the constitution’s transitory provisions, not necessarily the body of the text).
Those are preconditions to allowing Ukraine to restore control of its own side of the Ukraine-Russia border in the Russian-controlled territory (under the Minsk armistice, Ukraine is supposed to negotiate with Donetsk-Luhansk about some form of joint control of that border). With this, Moscow would hope to see the start of discussions with the European Union about easing the economic sanctions. Notably, Gryzlov (Moscow) showed no interest in quibbling about the special electoral law for local elections in Donetsk-Luhansk—a matter left to the Minsk Group entirely (Dzerkalo Tyzhnya, January 15–21; Apostrof, February 5).
President Poroshenko minimized publicity around Gryzlov’s visit before going public himself with his counter-proposals on national television. Without mentioning Gryzlov’s roadmap, Poroshenko outlined what amounts to Ukraine’s roadmap, with its own sequence of steps: a reasonably lengthy period of a full ceasefire, with full and unimpeded access for the monitoring operation; withdrawal of illegally stationed forces from the Donetsk-Luhansk territory; restoration of Ukraine’s control on its side of the border (alternatively, deployment of an international contingent of police personnel along the border). No valid elections could be held in Donetsk-Luhansk without those basic security guarantees (Ukrinform, January 24).
Hardly anyone in Kyiv harbors illusions that Moscow would accept those proposals and that chronological sequence. Kyiv seeks to forestall a possible Western imposition of sham elections in the Russian-controlled territory. Such elections would, in the existing circumstances, guarantee the success of Russia’s proxies and legitimize the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” The Minsk Contact Group is currently debating the technical modalities for such elections, in the absence of basic security conditions, let alone a legal and democratic environment.
A meeting of the Minsk Group is scheduled to be held on February 24, after a month-long hiatus. According to Ukraine’s delegate, Roman Bessmertnyy, the negotiations are not afloat, but “sinking below the water line” in terms of security guarantees for any political process (Apostrof, February 22).
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February 24, 2016, 9:09 AM (IDT)
Russia announced on Tuesday that it will request to carry out flights above US territory using intelligence collection planes fitted with highly advanced digital cameras and sensors capable of detecting radioactive and other materials. The mutual right to carry out flights by unarmed intelligence aircraft is included in the Open Skies Treaty between NATO and Russia that is aimed at proving that the two sides are honoring their arms control agreements. Western intelligence organizations warn that the Russian flights will become a main part of Russia's plans to collect intelligence. Even if Washington approves the flights, they will occur in the summer and require advance notice of 120 days.
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Islamic State militants forced out of Libya's Sabratha after clashes: officials
Reuters MISRATA, Libya Islamic State militants briefly entered the center of the western Libyan city of Sabratha during overnight clashes with local military brigades before retreating, local authorities said on Wednesday. Islamist militants have taken ... ISIS storms Libya security office, beheads 12CBS News Islamic State overruns security headquarters in Libyan city, beheads 12Chicago Tribune ISIS Takes Control of Libya's Sabratha And Beheads 12 Before RetreatingNewsweek Washington Post -Stars and Stripes all 121 news articles » |
AMMAN/BEIRUT (Reuters) - The Syrian army and Islamic State militants waged fierce battles on Wednesday around Khanaser, a strategic town southeast of Aleppo, where an attack by the jihadist group has cut the main land route to the city during three days of fighting.
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Japanese media are reporting that U.S. President Barack Obama has asked Prime Minister Shinzo Abe not to visit Russia in May for talks with President Vladimir Putin.
Russian Military Command Found Linked To MH17 Downingby support@pangea-cms.com (RFE/RL)
A team of open-source researchers investigating the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 has published a report it provided to Dutch prosecutors linking the commanders of a Russian military unit to the plane’s downing.
The Daily Vertical is a video primer for Russia-watchers that appears Monday through Friday.
Obituary: Republic Of North Ossetia Head Dies Just Months After Taking Office by support@pangea-cms.com (Liz Fuller)
Tamerlan Aguzarov died last week in a Moscow clinic at the age of 52, having served just five months as head of his native Republic of North Ossetia.
The Daily Vertical is a video primer for Russia-watchers that appears Monday through Friday.
The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone to Saudi Arabia's King Salman on February 24 and that the two had agreed to continue contacts about resolving the war in Syria.
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Eleven members of a polygamist Mormon offshoot group are arrested in the US on suspicion of food stamp fraud and money laundering.
Researchers Spot Genetic Markers for Ischemic Strokesby webdesk@voanews.com (Jessica Berman)
Stroke is a brain attack caused either by a broken blood vessel that results in bleeding in the brain or, more commonly, a blockage by a blood clot or plaque. The blockage interrupts the flow of oxygen, and brain tissue dies. Stroke was the second-leading global cause of death behind heart disease in 2013, accounting for 11.8 percent of total deaths worldwide, and it was the leading cause of preventable disability, according to the American Stroke Association. Brad Worrall, a professor...
Lawmakers Question Russian Commitment in Syriaby webdesk@voanews.com (Pamela Dockins)
A U.S.- and Russian-led plan for a partial cease-fire in Syria to begin Saturday has drawn skepticism from U.S. lawmakers who question whether Russia will live up to its commitments. Lawmakers questioned Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday about whether the U.S. was willing to pressure Russia if it failed to comply. VOA State Department correspondent Pam Dockins reports.
Ramon Castro, Brother of Cuban Presidents, Dies at 91by webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
Ramon Castro, older brother of Cuban leaders Fidel and Raul Castro, died Tuesday in Havana at age 91. Born in the rural town of Biran, Ramon Castro participated in the rebellion that led to the Cuban Revolution, but did not follow his brothers into the political arena. Fidel Castro, now 89, ruled for decades before poor health caused him to turn over power to 84-year-old brother Raul in 2006. The arrangement was formalized when Raul became president two years later. Ramon Castro,...
Syria on the Agenda as Jordan's King Visits White Houseby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
President Barack Obama is hosting Jordan's King Abdullah II at the White House on Wednesday for talks focused on the battle against Islamic State and the humanitarian fallout from the war in Syria. Jordan has been taking part in the U.S.-led coalition conducting airstrikes against Islamic State targets in both Iraq and Syria. A White House statement said the two leaders will discuss efforts to counter the militants as well as ways to resolve the five-year Syrian conflict. The...
Assad: Syria Ready to Help Implement Cease-fire Planby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad confirmed to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that Syria is ready to help implement a cease-fire planned to begin on Saturday. The two leaders spoke by telephone Wednesday and highlighted the importance of continuing to fight terror groups such as Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra. The militants are not part of a U.S.-Russian proposal for a cessation of hostilities. Other groups are supposed to say by Friday whether they are taking part. The...
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Beijing Overtakes NYC as 'Billionaire Capital of the World'by webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
The Chinese capital has overtaken the Big Apple as home to the most billionaires, 100 to 95, according to Hurun, a Shanghai firm that publishes a monthly magazine and releases yearly rankings and research about the world's richest people and their spending habits. The study, which comes months after reports suggested China now has more billionaires than the United States, highlights how China's elite are continuing to accrue vast wealth despite a wobbling stock...
Israel Rights Groups: Dozens of Palestinian Detainees Abusedby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
A report by two Israeli rights groups released Wednesday says dozens of Palestinian detainees at an Israeli detention facility are subjected to mistreatment, which in some cases amounts to torture. The report by B'Tselem and HaMoked presents accounts by 116 Palestinian detainees on conditions at the Shikma interrogation facility, run by the Israeli Shin Bet internal security agency. The report says the detainees are incarcerated small, rank cells, often in isolation. Palestinian...
Russia Gives a Gift of 10,000 Automatic Rifles to Afghanistanby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Afghan officials took delivery of 10,000 automatic rifles and millions of rounds of ammunition as a gift from Russia on Wednesday, another sign of deepening involvement by Moscow in the war-torn country. Dependent almost entirely on foreign aid, Afghan security forces are struggling to secure the country amid a rising insurgency. As the NATO-led coalition's military presence dwindled last year, Afghan leaders reached out to Moscow, which fought a war of its own in Afghanistan...
CAIRO (Reuters) - Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Wednesday that the Russian plane that crashed in Sinai last year was downed by terrorists seeking to damage Egypt's tourism industry and relations with Moscow.
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