What is also striking about Stent’s accounting—the most comprehensive thus far produced—is the arrogance with which the Obama administration believed it could simply make Putin its partner. As Stent explains, the now infamous “reset” button was part of a broader delusion on the part of the U.S. government that major concessions would earn reciprocity. - "The Limits of Partnership" by Angela Stent - Review: Realpolitik and Russia - Washington Free Beacon
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 Washington Free Beacon |
Realpolitik and Russia
Washington Free Beacon A professor at Georgetown and former Russian government hand, Angela Stent has spent her career examining or participating in U.S.-Russia relations. In The Limits of Partnership she explains why America's post-Cold War relationship with Russia has been ... Post-Soviet Russia: US Public Broadcasting System (PBS) Misrepresents ...Center for Research on Globalization Dovish Tone of EU's Russia Paper Makes Some Diplomats UneasyWall Street Journal (blog) Former head of Moscow FSB warns Russia could lose territory to ChinaThe Siberian Times War is Boring -European Council on Foreign Relations -The Japan Times all 29 news articles » |
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США решили переименовать свои провалы на Ближнем Востоке в победы
Российская Газета Госсекретарь США Джон Керри созывает своих союзников в Лондон, чтобы вместе решить, чем еще можно помочь террористам из "Исламского государства" укрепить свои позиции на Ближнем Востоке. Конечно же, официально у намеченных на 22 января "лондонских посиделок" иная ... В Лондоне пройдет конференция коалиции, сражающейся с ИГВестник Кавказа В Лондоне состоится встреча участников коалиции против «Исламского государства»Московский Комсомолец - Лондон Члены коалиции против ИГ встретятся в Лондоне 22 январяКомсомольская правда Внешнеэкономические связи-ИА "Инфолайн"-Газета.Ru Все похожие статьи: 41 » |
Russia’s Demographic Problems Begin to Bite -- and Bite Hardby paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, January 18 – Demography is destiny, many analysts say, but their opponents insist that that is true only in the very long term. But occasionally, as in Russia today, demography is destiny in the most immediate and direct sense, a reality that many refuse to acknowledge and that limits Moscow’s ability to deal with the current crisis.
As Yekaterina Mereminskaya points out in an article in “Gazeta,” “Russia came to the crisis with unresolved demographic problems which now can turn into catastrophic ones.” The low birthrates of the 1990s and the collapse of immigration mean that it will not have enough workers to ensure import substitution (gazeta.ru/business/2015/01/15/6376785.shtml).
Meriminskaya cites the words of Tatyana Maleva, the head of the Institute of Social Analysis and Prognostication of the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service, to the effect that “Russia is in the first stage of a demographic catastrophe,” one that is not only unprecedented but that is not reflected in official government statistics.
The Russian authorities are proud of the low level of unemployment in the country, but they fail to see that this means there are no reserves to deal with two huge problems: the size of the cohort entering the workforce is far smaller than that leaving it and immigrants are no longer going to make up the difference, Maleva says.
That will have systemic consequences, she continues, but today, “the problem of the labor market is not in the level of employment but in the combination of the growth of unemployment in some oblasts and a shortage of labor in others,” the result of shorter work weeks in the latter.
This contraction has already begun in the financial sector and the media and is spreading to retail trade and housing as well. What it should mean, of course, is that mangers should become workers, but that isn’t happening, or that more rather than fewer immigrant workers should be allowed in.
But just the reverse is happening, Maleva points out. “According to the Federal Migration Service, 70 percent fewer migrants arrived in Russia during the first nine days of 2015 compared to the number for the same period in 2014.” And their failure to come is already hitting communal services in cities “from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok.”
Moreover, this is occurring on the backdrop of the problem of the aging of the population of Russia. In place of the retiring generation is arriving, in Malev’s words, “the tragically small” generation of the 1990s, who not only are few in number but do not want to become workers at the bench.
“Independently of the crisis, the price of oil, and the ruble exchange rate, the labor market in Russia is entering a very complicated phase, one that is deep, lengthy, and involves a long-term decline in the size of the economically active population,” Maleva says. This is something, she adds, that “no one in the world has ever passed through.”
Vladimir Mau, the head of Maleva’s academy, adds that “now is departing the last generation capable of working in producing and is arriving a generation which in principle does not want to work in production. And the government must be ready for this shift – possibly by increasing programs for adults.”
But that is far from the only demographically driven problem Russia faces, both say. Although it is not fully reflected in the statistics because Rosstat does not count medicines in its price index, the rising cost of imported medicines is pushing down the standard of living in Russia and will continue to do so as the population ages and needs more of them.
That in turn will contribute to the explosive growth in the share of the population in poverty. According to Maleva, 12 percent of Russians can be counted as poor now, but that figure is likely to rise to 23 percent by the end of this year – and “for certain social groups, to as much as 30 percent.” Those increases will eliminate all the progress of the last 20 years.
Inevitably, she continues, prices increases and pay backlogs will spark social tensions even more than was the case in 2009, and this time around, the Russian population has many fewer resources to cope, something which means that the problems it faces will be translated into tensions far more quickly than in the past.
Russians are financing consumption now with savings, but 42 percent of Russians do not have any savings – and that number will continue to grow as prices rise and people try to compensate by drawing down what they have put aside in the past. That means that ever more Russians will feel the bite of the country’s demographic and economic problems.
Because the government and the media are not reporting accurately about this, many Russians do not recognize how serious the current situation is and think that “everything will be fine.” But “if people understood what this year is going to be like,” regardless of whether sanctions are lifted, Maleva says, “they would not be doing so.”
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· · · · ·
Ukraine's Military: Troops Retake Most of Donetsk Airportby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Ukrainian troops launched a "mass operation" overnight, retaking almost all the territory of Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine lost to separatists in recent weeks, military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said on Sunday. The army's offensive at the airport brought the fighting close to the city of Donetsk itself, center of a pro-Russian separatist rebellion. Residents reported intensified outgoing shelling including from residential areas in central parts of the separatist-held city. "The decision was taken for a mass operation. ... We succeeded in almost completely cleaning the territory of the airport, which belongs to the territory of Ukrainian forces as marked by military separation lines," Lysenko said in a televised briefing. Lysenko said the operation had returned the battle lines near the airport to the previous status quo and that the Ukrainian army had thus not violated the Minsk 12-point peace plan agreed with Russia and separatist leaders last September. Four Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 32 injured in the past 24 hours, he said. With attempts to restart peace talks stalled, pro-Russian rebels have stepped up attacks in the past week, seizing from government troops parts of the airport, which is of strategic value to both sides. “It was impossible to sleep -- explosions, the walls were shaking. It seemed like they were firing from near the building. ... The DNR [rebel] army were firing from our district,” 53-year-old advertising executive Alla said by telephone. A cease-fire agreed at the talks in Minsk, capital of Belarus, in early September was regularly violated from the start by both sides. The World Health Organization said more than 4,800 people have been killed in the conflict pitting Kyiv's forces against separatists whom the West say are supported and armed by Russia. Despite what Kyiv and the West says is incontrovertible proof, Russia denies its troops are involved or that it is funneling military equipment to the separatists. With its runways pitted and cratered, the airport itself, with a multi-story control tower and extensive outbuildings, has long since ceased to function. But its hulk, battered by shelling and gunfire, has taken on symbolic value for both sides with troops and separatists hunting each other often at close range in a deadly cat-and-mouse game among the ruins.
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 RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty |
Russia's Foreign Legion Of Doubt
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 The Moscow Times |
$1 Billion Rocket Engine Deal Cements Russia's Place in US Space Industry
The Moscow Times Russian rocket maker Energia has signed a $1 billion deal with U.S. space firm Orbital Sciences to deliver 60 RD-181 Russian rocket engines to the U.S., Energia said in a press release Friday. The deal comes two months after an Antares rocket using a ... Billion-dollar deal: Russia to sell space rocket engines to US companyRT US Company Signs $1 Billion Deal For Russian Rocket EnginesRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty Russia, US Sign $1Bln Contract on RD-181 Rocket Engine DeliveriesSputnik International all 44 news articles » |
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Yevgeny Savostyanov, the head of Russia's Coordination Council on Intellectual Property Protection, says the country is heading toward an era of cultural "isolationism" where artists who don't toe the Kremlin line will be muzzled. Savostyanov made waves this week when he quit the Culture Ministry, saying he was "ashamed" of Minister Vladimir Medinsky's policies. He spoke with RFE/RL Russian Service correspondent Lilya Palveleva.
Ukrainian troops launched a "mass operation" overnight, retaking almost all the territory of Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine lost to separatists in recent weeks.
 Business Insider |
Russia's Net Outflows Hit The Highest Level Ever
Business Insider Net outflows by companies and banks reached $151.5 billion in 2014, more than two times as much as in 2013, according to the Russian Central Bank. The last time the level of outflows was this high was during the global financial crisis in 2008, when it ... Russia May Resort to Currency Restrictions If Outflows Continue to MountBloomberg Record $150 Billion Fled Russia in 2014 as Oil Prices and Sanctions Hit EconomyThe Moscow Times Business Insider: Russia's net outflows hit the highest level everKyiv Post Seeking Alpha all 24 news articles » |
Russian Officials Split on Charlie Hebdo Protestsby By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber
Moscow authorities rejected a request for permission to hold a march in defense of the feelings ofbelievers, while two Muslim republics in southern Russia have gone ahead with plans for similar protests.
Published on Jan 18, 2015
Shelling echoes across eastern Ukraine while thousands rally for peace in Kiev. Nathan Frandino reports.
Genya Savilov/Getty
MOSCOW—Peace negotiations were supposed to take place between Moscow and Kiev last Thursday. They didn’t. On Friday, in both capitals, officials talked about full-scale war threatening to erupt in Donbas, the rebellious eastern region of Ukraine. Each side blamed the other for violence and atrocities, after an artillery attack hit a public bus and killed 12 passengers on the road between Donetsk
and Mariupol earlier in the week. The strike targeted a Ukrainian army position, a checkpoint; the army blamed separatists, while separatist officials said the Ukrainians had fired on their own
position to simulate a separatist atrocity. Both Kiev and Moscow demanded an investigation by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
position to simulate a separatist atrocity. Both Kiev and Moscow demanded an investigation by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
The new ceasefire negotiations, which had been planned for weeks by both sides of the conflict, seemed to be forgotten, and the question looms whether a peace agreement with Ukraine is possible at all.
According to Sergei Markov, an informal advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow did not have a good peace plan in the first place. “No peace negotiations can happen,” he told The Daily Beast, “so long as certain Ukrainian officials … are responsible for decision making in Kiev; and they want to drag Russia into a full-scale war, as that is the only way they can keep power.” Markov, speaking as we waited for Putin to address the Public Chamber at Moscow State University on Thursday, mentioned three names in particular as obstacles to peace: Oleksandr Turchninov, the former acting president and current secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council; Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the prime minister; and parliamentarian Andriy Parubiy.
In vain, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called last week for an urgent meeting of Trilateral Contact Group with the participation of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE, at the level of foreign ministers.
Shelling and mortar fire continued in Donbas, causing more deaths of civilians. Turchinov, whom Markov wanted to see prosecuted for war crimes, warned Thursday against “the resumption of large-scale military operations and attacks with the active participation of Russian armed forces, which may result in a full-scale, continental war.”
If not, Turchinov told the parliament in Kiev, there may be “intensification of terrorist activities in the long-term transformation of the armed conflict, with the depletion of economic, military, moral and psychological potential of Ukraine, and the destruction of its statehood.”
“I hope that we get the results and guns will be silenced again.”
Turchinov’s security council decided to launch another mobilization wave on January 20, and two more in April and June.
A full-scale war? Markov told us that, indeed, Turchinov’s predictions could come true: “Some Russian forces might get involved to help out the army of Novorossia, in case Ukrainian forces re-arm and advance.” (Markov continues to refer to rebellious regions as Novorossia, although hopes for such a quasi-imperial expansion of Moscow’s dominion are fading.) He admitted without going into details that “at least twice, in August and September, some Russian military were on Ukrainian soil.”
Markov works as a vice rector at the Plekhanov Russian University and a member of the Public Chamber. Back in 1993, he helped found the Carnegie Moscow Center. He was a long-time friend of Michael McFaul, President Barack Obama’s architect of Russia policy, who served as ambassador to Moscow. Russia. Ukraine was Markov’s field of expertise; he was the Kremlin’s advisor and political consultant during the Orange Revolution of 2004 and 2005, which Ukrainians refer to as “the first Maidan.”
These days Markov sees his mission as that of a consultant to the Kremlin: “I pass my advice through Naryshkin,” he said. Sergei Naryshkin is State Duma speaker. Markov concedes that some of his advice is not taken. “I was against recognizing Kiev’s elections; but we did recognize them and it was a mistake,” Markov told The Daily Beast. In a number of interviews last summer, Markov said that Moscow’s plan was to expand a separatist pro-Russian state of Novorossia by first winning the war in Donbas, and then going further to make Nikolayev, Kharkiv and Odessa as part of Novorossia.
But more recently, despite his attachment to the word and the notion of Novorossia, Markov says he has changed tack: “About a month and a half ago, I advised that instead of Novorossia, we should promote integration of the Donbas regions back into Ukraine,” Markov said. Since last November, Pesident Putin has not pronounced the word Novorossia.
Markov says his new agenda is likely to be very uncomfortable for Kiev. “If it happens that Donbas integrates into the current state, these Ukrainian citizens will demand independent investigations,” he said. They will want to know who was guilty in the deadly fire in Odessa last May that killed 42 people; they will want to know “why Ukrainian National Guards shot civilians on May 9 in Mariupol, and who fired at the public bus outside Donetsk this week.”
Formally, Moscow still favors peace talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that Moscow is still interested in the meeting proposed by Merkel to make sure that all parts of an earlier agreement are fulfilled. “Efforts are being made,” he said. “I hope that we get the results and guns will be silenced again.”
Unfortunately, the roar of cannons and of Grad missile launchers is more likely.
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