The Invisible Elephant in Minsk Negotiations Hall: US arms for Ukraine | The U.S. and NATO Must Provide Ukraine With Weapons - Opinion - NYT

US arms for Ukraine - GS

Obama administration warily eyes Ukraine-Russia cease-fire while mulling arms ...

Washington Times - ‎1 hour ago‎

The Obama administration said Friday that it is still weighing whether to provide U.S. weapons to Ukraine's military and that the success or failure of a delicate peace deal reached this week to end the nation's conflict with Russia-backed separatists will affect ...

Obama administration warily eyes Ukraine-Russia cease-fire while mulling arms support

Friday February 13th, 2015 at 7:50 PM

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The Obama administration said Friday that it is still weighing whether to provide U.S. weapons to

Ukraine’s military and that the success or failure of a delicate peace deal reached this week to end the nation’s conflict with Russia-backed separatists will affect the calculus of the decision.

Administration officials said they believed the Russian military was still moving “tanks and missile systems” across the border into eastern Ukraine, even as violence surged between Ukrainian forces and the separatists ahead of a Sunday morning cease-fire agreed to under this week’s deal.

“Russian units along the border with Ukraine are preparing a large shipment of supplies to pro-Russian forces fighting in eastern Ukraine,” State Department spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki told reporters in Washington on Friday afternoon. “This is clearly not in the spirit of this week’s agreement.”

Analysts had predicted a spike in violence in eastern Ukraine Friday and Saturday as the two sides of the conflict seek to expand their lines before the shooting is supposed to stop at midnight Saturday. The Associated Press reported that clashes appear only to have increased since a peace agreement was sealed Thursday in the Belarusian capital of Minsk by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France.

Following its passage, German Chancellor Angela Merkel cautiously described the cease-fire deal as “a glimmer of hope” in the conflict that has killed more than 5,000 people since last year.

In a joint statement Friday, leaders from Western powers involved in the G-7 said they “welcome” the peace deal, but are prepared to take collective action if the cease-fire fails to take hold with both Ukrainian forces and the Russia-backed separatists pulling back their weaponry from the conflict’s front lines in eastern Ukraine.

“All parties should refrain from actions in the coming days that would hinder the start of the cease-fire,” the leaders said. “The G7 stands ready to adopt appropriate measures against those who … do not observe the agreed comprehensive ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons.”

While hope for the cease-fire appeared to have been put on the back burner in what had been a growing debate within the Obama administration over whether to begin sending in American weaponry to bolster Ukraine’s military, Mrs. Psaki said Friday that possibility “remains on the table.”

“Obviously, we’ll be watching closely to see what happens over the course of the coming days,” she said.

Congress gave the administration authorization in December to begin shipping weapons to Ukraine. Domestic pressure to send U.S. drones and armor-piercing anti-tank missiles to Ukrainian troops mounted last week with the release of a report by three influential U.S. think tanks, which asserted that as many as 1,000 Russian military and intelligence officers are now operating in easternUkraine.

The report pushed by the Brookings Institution, the Atlantic Council and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs — as well as by some former Obama administration officials — argued the weapons shipments would send a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that “the West will not accept the use of forces to change borders in Europe.”

While Washington and the European Union have leveled economic sanctions against several Russian officials and companies, the Obama administration has resisted providing anything other than “soft” support to Ukraine’s military, sending gas masks and radar technology but no missiles or other weapons in the fight against the Moscow-backed separatists.

Pressed on the issue Friday by The Washington Times, Mrs. Psaki said the Obama administration’s “priority” is to see this week’s peace agreement implemented.

“If the cease-fire works and it’s being implemented, I think it obviously would calibrate what we would do,” she said. “But let’s talk about it and see where we are in a couple of days.”

US says Russia still deploying heavy...

Friday February 13th, 2015 at 7:45 PM

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US says Russia still deploying heavy arms in Ukraine Economic Times - ‎8 minutes ago‎ WASHINGTON: The United States charged Friday that Russia was continuing to deploy heavy weapons in eastern Ukraine, before a ceasefire agreed this week goes into effect. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the United States had received ... Ukraine ceasefire: New Minsk agreement key points BBC News - ‎16 minutes ago‎ Marathon peace negotiations have resulted in a new ceasefire deal for eastern Ukraine in the Belarusian capital Minsk. The 16-hour talks went on through the night, between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, French ... Fighting continues in Ukraine despite looming cease-fire Washington Post - ‎17 minutes ago‎ MOSCOW — Fighting raged in eastern Ukraine ahead of a planned cease-fire, amid increasing doubts over the workability of a day-old peace deal. The battle between Russian-backed rebels and Ukrainian government forces appeared to be intensifying ... Minsk ceasefire on shaky ground as separatists pound Ukrainian troops Irish Times - ‎23 minutes ago‎ An internationally agreed ceasefire due to start Saturday tonight in eastern Ukraine is under threat from intense fighting and disputes between Kiev and Russian-backed separatists over the terms of the deal. The militants are attempting to surround thousands ... This Week in Pictures: Feb. 7-13 MSNBC - ‎24 minutes ago‎ The conflict in Ukraine continued to ramp up this week, as Russian President Vladimir Putin met with leaders from Ukraine, France and Germany to negotiate an end to fighting between Russian-back separatists and government forces in the eastern Ukraine. Ukraine battles persist before cease-fire The Daily Star - ‎33 minutes ago‎ Ukrainian government soldiers inspect the body of a child covered with cloth after shelling between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian government forces in a residential area of the town of Artemivsk, Ukraine, Feb. 13, 2015. (AP/Petr David Josek). Spirited Merkel tackles Ukraine, Greece The Daily Star - ‎33 minutes ago‎ Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President Francois Hollande walk past an honor guard as they take part in peace talks on resolving the Ukrainian crisis in Minsk, February 12, 2015. (REUTERS/Mykhailo Palinchak/Ukrainian Presidential ... National Post View: A dubious ceasefire in Ukraine National Post - ‎36 minutes ago‎ The fatal flaw in the agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine is not hard to spot. To succeed, it depends heavily on the good faith and goodwill of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has amply demonstrated he can't be trusted on either count. The ideal ... Ukraine cease-fire deadline provokes bitter last-gasp battle <a href="http://STLtoday.com" rel="nofollow">STLtoday.com</a> - ‎40 minutes ago‎ ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine (AP) — Russian-backed separatists mounted a vicious assault Friday in eastern Ukraine ahead of a weekend cease-fire deadline, pummeling a strategic railway hub with wave upon wave of shelling in a last-minute grab for territory. US says Russia violating 'spirit' of Ukraine peace deal New Zealand Herald - ‎43 minutes ago‎ WASHINGTON (AP) " The Obama administration on Friday accused Russia and pro-Russian separatists of violating "the spirit" of a peace deal for Ukraine with weapons shipments and intensified fighting before a cease-fire takes effect this weekend. Ukraine battles persist before cease-fire deadline; 25 dead New Zealand Herald - ‎43 minutes ago‎ ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine (AP) " Fierce fighting surged Friday in eastern Ukraine as Russian-backed separatists mounted a major, sustained offensive to capture a strategic railway hub ahead of a weekend cease-fire deadline. At least 25 people were killed ... G7 threatens 'measures' if Minsk agreement on Ukraine violated Reuters - ‎43 minutes ago‎ PARIS (Reuters) - The leaders of the G7 said this week's ceasefire agreement for Ukraine offered a peaceful resolution to the crisis and threatened to take action if it were violated. In a joint statement issued by the French presidency, the G7 leaders said they ... Why America, Not Europe, Is Kiev's Biggest Headache Huffington Post - ‎57 minutes ago‎ Introducing "lethal defensive weapons" into the Ukraine conflict seems the right thing to do. It confirms the visceral Western feeling that Russia -- the country where, "they make no pretense of loving liberty" as Lincoln once put it -- only respects force. American ... US Accuses Kremlin of Joining Ukraine Rebels in Assault Ahead of Cease-Fire New York Times - ‎1 hour ago‎ WASHINGTON — The United States accused Russia on Friday of massing artillery and rocket systems around a contested town in eastern Ukraine and joining pro-Russian rebels in attacking Ukrainian forces, calling such actions a violation of the spirit of a ... G7 voices concern about Ukraine situation, urges implementation of peace ... Xinhua - ‎1 hour ago‎ WASHINGTON, Feb. 13 (Xinhua) -- The seven Western industrialized countries on Friday voiced concern about the situation in Ukraine, calling on all sides to implement measures of a new peace deal "without delay." Leaders of Britain, Canada, France, ... Kyiv Officials: 11 Troops Killed Since Minsk Deal Voice of America - ‎1 hour ago‎ Ukraine's military said Friday that 11 soldiers had been killed and 40 wounded in fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past day, despite a cease-fire deal that was reached Thursday but is not yet in effect. Military officials said the fighting was particularly intense ... Obama administration warily eyes Ukraine-Russia cease-fire while mulling arms ... Washington Times - ‎1 hour ago‎ FILE - In this Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2015, file photo, Russian-backed separatists cover their ears as they fire a mortar towards Ukrainian troops outside the village of Sanzharivka, northeast of Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine. Ukraine says that eight troops have ... Fighting rages in run-up to Ukraine ceasefire euronews - ‎1 hour ago‎ DONETSK, Ukraine (Reuters) – Ukraine and Russian-backed rebels fought fiercely across the east of the country on Friday despite a new peace deal brokered by Germany and France. A ceasefire is due to come into effect from Sunday under the agreement, ... G-7 calls for Ukraine deal to be implemented 'without delay' The Straits Times - ‎1 hour ago‎ A woman and her baby wait to cross at the Uspenka border post separating Ukraine and Russia in village of Uspenka, on Feb 13, 2015. At least 18 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine in new artillery shelling just a day after a peace deal was signed to ... Ukraine Starts Countdown to Cease-Fire as Clashes Erupt in East Bloomberg - ‎1 hour ago‎ (Bloomberg) -- Fighting intensified in Ukraine as the clock ticked down to a cease-fire that's supposed to go into effect early Sunday. Pro-Russian separatists and government forces sought to maximize territory under their control, with the government in Kiev ... Ukraine fighting kills 27 as clock ticks to ceasefire Business Recorder - ‎1 hour ago‎ image DONETSK: Fighting raged in Ukraine on Friday as the clock ticked down to a ceasefire that will be a first test of the commitment by Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to a freshly-inked peace plan. At least 27 civilians and soldiers died in shelling as ... US says Russia sending weapons to Ukraine as ceasefire nears Deutsche Welle - ‎1 hour ago‎ The United States has accused Russia of sending more heavy weapons into eastern Ukraine in the days leading up to a ceasefire. Fighting in the region has intensified since the latest truce was agreed in Minsk. Ukraine fighting flares ahead of truce Financial Times - ‎2 hours ago‎ Battles intensified on Friday in Ukraine's breakaway east as Russian-backed separatists raced ahead with massive offensives to capture more territory and surround thousands of government troops in a strategic railway hub before an agreed ceasefire was ... Rebel bombardment of civilians is an attack on Minsk peace deal: Ukraine ... The Daily Star - ‎2 hours ago‎ A Ukrainian government troop waves to a armored vehicle driving on the road towards Debaltseve near the town of Artemivsk, Ukraine, Friday, Feb. 13, 2015. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek). Connect; Tweet; RSS; Follow; Email; Print; Share. Agence France ... Ukraine: President Poroshenko questions if ceasefire will take effect Ghana Broadcasting Corporation - ‎2 hours ago‎ Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko believes there are no guarantees the ceasefire deal agreed in the Belarus capital on Thursday will actually take effect. “I don't want anyone to have any illusions and I don't want to look like a naive person. We still have a ... Ukraine fighting kills 20 as truce nears Sky News Australia - ‎2 hours ago‎ Fighting has raged in Ukraine as the clock ticked down to a ceasefire that will be a first test of the commitment by Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to a freshly-inked peace plan. With separatists fighting to conquer more territory ahead of the truce and Kiev ... Kiev Agreed to Truce—At Gunpoint Newsweek - ‎2 hours ago‎ Ukrainian servicemen arrange military equipment atop a tank in the territory controlled by Ukraine's government forces in the Donetsk region February 13, 2015. Alexei Chernyshev/Reuters. Filed Under: Opinion, Ukraine, Russia. With thousands of Ukrainian ... The 5 Reasons Russia Has It Bad (But Ukraine Has It Worse) TIME - ‎2 hours ago‎ German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and Alexander Zemlianichenko—AP German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Belarusian President ... Fighting surges in Ukraine hours before ceasefire deadline The Indian Express - ‎3 hours ago‎ Ukraine ceasefire deadline, Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine violence, Ukraine, World news Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko, left, and defence minister Stepan Poltorak, talk at the National Guard Training Center in Novy Petrivtsy, Ukraine, on Friday. (Source: ... In the face of Russian history, EU makes a wavering ally for Ukraine Chicago Tribune - ‎3 hours ago‎ Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose country was invaded by Russia in 2008, revealed to an audience of Ukrainians what Vladimir Putin thought of their nation. "I had 36 meetings with Putin," Saakashvili said in a visit to the Ukrainian city of ...

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US warily eyes new peace deal for...

Friday February 13th, 2015 at 7:43 PM

US Arms For Ukraine - Google News

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US warily eyes new peace deal for Ukraine El Paso Inc. - ‎12 minutes ago‎ The Obama administration is taking a wary, wait-and-see approach toward the new Ukraine peace agreement, which was reached without direct American input and while the U.S. considers whether to give defensive weapons to Ukraine and slap fresh ... The Peace Agreement Proves Putin Was Lying All Along The Fiscal Times - ‎18 minutes ago‎ ... in Minsk on Wednesday and Thursday, or maybe he just doesn't care anymore, but Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have implicitly admitted that Russia has been supplying arms, and almost certainly soldiers, to the separatists fighting in Ukraine. Fighting Rages In Run-Up To Ukraine Ceasefire Times Record - ‎20 minutes ago‎ NATO and the United States said the fighting ran counter to the spirit, if not the letter of the agreement and U.S. officials said further sanctions were still on the table. At an EU summit in Brussels, the leaders of Germany, ... The White House, under pressure from Congress to providearms to the stretched Ukrainian military, said the deal was “potentially significant” but urged Russia to withdraw soldiers and equipment, and give Ukraine back control over its border. Russia denies arming the rebels and sending troops to ... Ukraine battles persist before cease-fire The Daily Star - ‎29 minutes ago‎ ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine: Fierce fighting surged Friday in eastern Ukraine as Russian-backed separatists mounted a major, sustained offensive to capture a strategic railway hub ahead of a weekend cease-fire deadline. Over 25 people were killed across the ... Spirited Merkel tackles Ukraine, Greece The Daily Star - ‎29 minutes ago‎ “Europe speaks Merkel,” said Bild, barely concealing its adulation for her efforts to convince U.S.President Barack Obama to fend off requests to send arms to Kiev and Greece's Alexis Tsipras not to burn bridges with Brussels. Austria's Die Presse said ... The Minsk peace deal: Farce or sellout? Press TV - ‎29 minutes ago‎ Ben Hodges, commander of US Army Europe, that Washington is sending a battalion of US troops toUkraine to train Ukrainian forces how to fight against Russian and rebel forces. The training is scheduled to begin in March, ... The other signers to the Minsk deal are an OSCE representative which is the European group that is supposed to monitor the withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides, a former Ukrainian president Viktor Kuchma, and the Russian ambassador in Kiev. Neither the German chancellor nor the ... National Post View: A dubious ceasefire in Ukraine National Post - ‎32 minutes ago‎ ... agreement,” one U.S. official told the New York Times. Yet by Friday morning, fighting was already raging again as both sides sought to consolidate their positions, or add more ground gains. Ukrainecomplained Russia had steadily built up arms and forces ... The situation in Ukraine: a West Block primer Globalnews.ca - ‎32 minutes ago‎ Sanctions against Russia have been imposed by the west with calls for even more. To combat this, with or without a ceasefire, is it now time to send arms to Ukraine? This Sunday Tom Clark will talk to Taras Zalusky with the Ukrainian Canadian Congress and ... US says Russia still deploying heavy arms SBS - ‎37 minutes ago‎ The United States has charged that Russia is continuing to deploy heavy weapons in easternUkraine, before a ceasefire agreed this week goes into effect. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Friday that the United States had received reports ... Ukraine cease-fire deadline provokes bitter last-gasp battle Town Hall - ‎46 minutes ago‎ ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine (AP) — Russian-backed separatists mounted a vicious assault Friday in eastern Ukraine ahead of a weekend cease-fire deadline, pummeling a strategic railway hub with wave upon wave of shelling in a last-minute grab for territory. At least 26 ... Moscow vehemently denies that it provides manpower and weapons to the rebel forces, but the sheer quantity of powerfulweapons at the separatists' disposal belies that assertion. Russian .... Maddow: Jon Stewart Does The News "Better Than Us". Why America, Not Europe, Is Kiev's Biggest Headache Huffington Post - ‎53 minutes ago‎ Introducing "lethal defensive weapons" into the Ukraine conflict seems the right thing to do. It confirms the visceral Western feeling that Russia -- the country where, "they make no pretense of loving liberty" as Lincoln once put it -- only respects force. American ... US Accuses Kremlin of Joining Ukraine Rebels in Assault Ahead of Cease-Fire New York Times - ‎57 minutes ago‎ Another senior Obama administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told reporters at the same Thursday briefing that the United States might increase sanctions or send defensivearms to the Ukrainians if the new Minsk agreement was ... New shelling in eastern #Ukraine after peace summit MWC News - ‎57 minutes ago‎ The United States, which has said it could supply Ukraine with weapons if the conflict continues, cautiously welcomed the peace accord, but emphasised the work that still needs to be done in making it stick. "The true test of today's accord will be in its full and ... Ukraine: better deal than none Winnipeg Free Press - ‎58 minutes ago‎ Friday morning's cease-fire agreement for Ukraine is horribly flawed, yet far better than the alternative: Without it, the country would continue losing lives, territory and hope for a more stable and prosperous future — whether or not the U.S. sends arms. G7 ready to act against Ukraine cease-fire violators Anadolu Agency - ‎1 hour ago‎ The Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists had previously signed a cease-fire agreement in Minsk on Sept. 5, 2014, but both sides repeatedly violated it. U.S. and European leaders accuse Russia of supporting the conflict with arms and ... Intense Fighting In The Ukrainian Region Of Donetsk, Two Days Before The ... Trinity News Daily - ‎1 hour ago‎ Ukraine and Eastern Europe are blaming Russia to have begun this whole conflict by providing the pro-Russian rebels that are fighting in Kiev with arms and troops. Moscow, however, denies having any implications. Ukraine also accusing Russia of having ... Kyiv Officials: 11 Troops Killed Since Minsk Deal Voice of America - ‎1 hour ago‎ Ukraine and a host of Western governments accuse Moscow of stoking the rebellion in Ukraine'sRussian-speaking east with arms and fighters. Moscow has repeatedly denied providing direct support to rebels and has claimed that Russian troops seen ... Obama administration warily eyes Ukraine-Russia cease-fire while mulling arms ... Washington Times - ‎1 hour ago‎ The Obama administration said Friday that it is still weighing whether to provide U.S. weapons toUkraine's military and that the success or failure of a delicate peace deal reached this week to end the nation's conflict with Russia-backed separatists will affect ... The options in Ukraine Saudi Gazette - ‎1 hour ago‎ ... ways: a low-level conflict that lasts for many years; a ceasefire that doesn't entirely satisfy Moscow and Kiev, thus creating a stalemate for a long time; or a political settlement in which Russia withdraws forces from Ukraine and Kiev recognizes the separatists ... G-7 calls for Ukraine deal to be implemented 'without delay' The Straits Times - ‎1 hour ago‎ The United States earlier said it received reports that heavy weapons were being moved into easternUkraine from Russia over the past few days. The State Department claimed Russian military had deployed large amounts of artillery and multiple rocket ... At least 25 killed in Ukraine one day after peace deal The National - ‎1 hour ago‎ ... another 50 tanks across the border during the talks in Minsk. The United States, which has said it could supply Ukraine with weapons if the conflict continues, cautiously welcomed the peace accord, but emphasised the work still to be done in making it stick. Ukraine fighting kills 27 as clock ticks to ceasefire Business Recorder - ‎1 hour ago‎ Kiev and the West accuse Russia of stoking the war in ex-Soviet Ukraine by pouring arms and troops to help the pro-Russian rebels fighting Kiev government troops in Ukraine's industrial east. Moscow denies the charges. "I don't want anyone to have any ... US says Russia sending weapons to Ukraine as ceasefire nears Deutsche Welle - ‎1 hour ago‎ The United States has accused Russia of sending more heavy weapons into eastern Ukraine in the days leading up to a ceasefire. Fighting in the region has intensified since the latest truce was agreed in Minsk. Poroshenko Says Russia 'Significantly Increased Offensive' against Ukraine ... Naharnet - ‎1 hour ago‎ Meanwhile, the G7 voiced concern about the violence and the build-up of weapons in easternUkraine, days before the negotiated ceasefire is due to come into effect. "We urge all sides to adhere strictly to the provisions of the package and to carry out its ... Ukraine death toll grows after fragile peace deal signed i24news - ‎1 hour ago‎ The Ukrainian government on Thursday accused Russia of deploying another 50 tanks across the border during the talks in Minsk. The United States, which has said it could supply Ukraine withweapons if the conflict continues, cautiously welcomed the ... G7 threatens "measures" if Minsk agreement on Ukraine violated Daily Mail - ‎2 hours ago‎ "The G7 stands ready to adopt appropriate measures against those who violate the 'Minsk package' ... in particular against those who do not observe the agreed comprehensive ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons." (Reporting by Leigh Thomas; ... Rebel bombardment of civilians is an attack on Minsk peace deal: Ukraine ... The Daily Star - ‎2 hours ago‎ Rebel bombardment of civilians is an attack on Minsk peace deal: Ukraine president. A Ukrainiangovernment troop waves to a ... We invite all our readers to share with us their views and comments about this article. Disclaimer: Comments submitted by third ... Will Talks in Belarus End Fighting in Ukraine? VOA Learning English - ‎2 hours ago‎ They did so in an effort to stop the offensive by the rebels and avoid the possibility of United States arms sales to Ukraine. French President Francois Hollande said there is agreement on a political settlement of the nearly one-year-old Ukraine crisis. But he ... All is not quiet on the eastern front as cease-fire date nears La prensa - ‎2 hours ago‎ Separatist commanders called on the Ukrainian troops that they claim are trapped inside the besieged city to "lay down your arms and go home" or else stay and be liquidated. "We are willing to organize an exit path through the siege lines around Debaltseve. Kiev Agreed to Truce—At Gunpoint Newsweek - ‎2 hours ago‎ With thousands of Ukrainian troops nearly surrounded in Donbas by the freshly armed, Kremlin-directed rebel militias, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko accepted the Minsk II agreement on February 12. The new accord is clearly less advantageous to ...

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U.S. faces quandary: Will sending arms to Ukraine help or do harm?

Friday February 13th, 2015 at 7:38 PM

U.S. Faces Quandary: Will Sending Arms To Ukraine Help Or Do Harm? - Los Angeles Times

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President Obama says he is weighing the growing calls for U.S. military aid to badly outgunned Ukraine in its nearly yearlong struggle against separatists armed and instigated by Russia.

But whether sending antitank artillery, sophisticated radar systems and other arms and equipment to the beleaguered government forces would do more harm than good is a question still fiercely debated.

Even the most ardent advocates of sending weapons to Kiev say they have no illusions that more firepower will be enough to roll back separatists' territorial conquests in the country's east.

Many share the view of those opposed to arming Ukraine that such a move is likely to antagonize Russian President Vladimir Putin and prompt him to escalate what he sees as a war against American incursion on the Kremlin's sphere of influence. More weapons will mean more death and destruction, warn critics, who include key European allies.

But Ukraine has the moral and legal right to defend itself, foreign policy analysts say. And Washington is supposed to be a guarantor of the nation's security, they add, under a 1994 agreement in which Kiev surrendered its nuclear arsenal in exchange for promises from the United States, Britain and Russia to respect its sovereignty.

Fighting intensified on the eve of another diplomatic quest for a cease-fire, this time bringing the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France to Minsk, Belarus, on Wednesday. At least 15 people were killed Tuesday, most of them civilians, in a missile attack in the eastern Ukrainian town of Kramatorsk. The separatists and the Ukrainian government blamed each other for the bloodletting.

Obama has said he will consider arming Kiev if the diplomacy fails. But he clearly remains skeptical that sending U.S. arms would bring the two sides closer to a negotiated peace. At a news conference Monday with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Obama observed that weapons could fall into the wrong hands or lead to "over-aggressive actions that can't be sustained by the Ukrainians."

Merkel has said repeatedly that arming Ukraine risks provoking Putin and escalating a conflict that has already taken more than 5,300 lives.

Some foreign policy experts have increasingly called for stronger action by the U.S. administration to counter Russian aggression. Among the voices urging military aid for Ukraine is Defense Secretary-designate Ashton Carter, who said at his Senate confirmation hearing last week that he was "very much inclined" to deliver the assistance Kiev has requested.

Supplying arms to Ukraine carries a "very high" risk of escalating the conflict, but the price of not doing so may also be steep, leading Putin to believe he can violate international borders with impunity, said Kori Schake, a Hoover Institution fellow and National Security Council member in the George W. Bush administration.

"It's a delicate pedal and clutch operation," she said of the correct U.S. stance in the conflict.

Schake said she favors sending arms, as Ukrainians have the right to defend themselves and Russia should be made to pay for the damage it has inflicted.

"But I'm not sure I'm in favor of arming them if it costs us German leadership on the issue," she said, alluding to Merkel's objections.

Putin has used the conflict to cast the United States as an enemy and to rally Russians to the cause of defeating an alleged threat to their security, said Michael McFaul, who was U.S. ambassador to Russia during the Obama administration's "reset" of relations with Russia.

The last straw for Putin was the ouster of ally Viktor Yanukovich from the Ukrainian presidency a year ago by pro-Europe demonstrators who wanted to reorient Ukraine's economic and political alliances from Russia to Western Europe. Putin's pet project to create the Eurasian Economic Union to rival the European Union depended on keeping Ukraine in the post-Soviet bloc, McFaul said.

Now a political science professor at Stanford University, McFaul supports sending arms but doubts that will lead to resolution of the conflict. He sees little chance of the Ukrainian army recovering territory and expects a violent reaction from Putin.

"But at some point we should let the Ukrainians have a say in their own security," McFaul said. "They are the ones who are going to bear the brunt of this escalation."

Other Russia experts worry that arming Ukraine will validate Putin's view that Washington wants to depose him.

"Russia thinks there is a real security risk coming from the change of power in Kiev, and the more Kiev looks like it is going to be a military client of the United States, the more Russia feels that risk and the more it is willing to put on the line to counter it," said Keith Darden, a professor of international relations and Eurasia expert at American University.

Darden sees the fighting as a war of attrition that Russia, with its $350 billion in currency reserves, will surely be able to survive longer than Ukraine, which is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy with massive debt and $5.4 billion on hand.

The government could face renewed unrest if it runs out of money to fund the army or pay salaries, and it has failed to undertake the reforms it promised in exchange for financial aid, Darden said.

"They're saying, 'You really don't want us to collapse,' and we're saying, 'We really want you to reform,'" the professor said. "They are playing a dangerous game of chicken with us."

The arms Russia has provided the separatists are heavy armor and advanced electronics, but the Kremlin has vastly superior air power it could bring to the fight, Darden said.

"That would be a huge escalation and it would be devastating for the Ukrainian military," he said.

carol.williams@latimes.com

Copyright © 2015, Los Angeles Times

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The U.S. and NATO Must Provide Ukraine With Weapons

Friday February 13th, 2015 at 7:34 PM

Responses To Deadlier Ties To Ukraine?

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Orysia Lutsevych is a research fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London.

Russia is waging a war against Ukraine using military, financial, economic and propaganda tools. The conflict has already taken the lives of more than 5,000 Ukrainians. The scale of the humanitarian crisis increases daily.

The conflict may last longer and with more casualties if weapons are not delivered.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia embarked on a military campaign on the assumption that the Ukrainian state is weak, infiltrated by Russian agents, and has a stale army. However, he faced an unexpected push-back: Ordinary citizens have demonstrated a determination to defend Ukraine, to take care of wounded soldiers and procure equipment, bullet proof vests and night goggles. The Ministry of Defense alone has received more than $9 million of charity donations from citizens over the last few months. Only 2 percent of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should give up the Donbass region.

Six and a half years after the Russo-Georgian war, Russia is again testing the West’s determination to protect its values and international law. The West’s attention deficit disorder failed Georgia. It is still an open question as to whether it will fail Ukraine as well.

There is no easy resolution. But Ukraine’s own efforts should be reinforced. Ukraine may itself fail if the United States lets Russia continue unimpeded. The hottest debate is over the provision of lethal assistance for Kiev’s forces. Though not a decision to be taken lightly, sometimes weapons can save lives and protect civilians as they come under direct attack from rebel artillery fire. The conflict may last longer and with more casualties if weapons are not delivered.

U.S. military assistance, alongside a NATO-led defense capacity-building initiative for the Ukrainian army, could help contain Russian-backed rebels and protect other areas of Ukraine from destruction.

Negotiations are more likely to succeed and lead to a durable peace when backed with a credible threat of force. Even the Americans raising the issue of sending lethal arms to Ukraine put Minsk negotiations back on track.

The West needs to halt Russia’s violent behavior using all means at its disposal. America’s reputation will be tarnished if it stands by while Russia redraws European borders by force.

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