The long view with Russia: "What the West needs now is not merely a military policy but a comprehensive, long-term strategy designed to reinforce Ukrainian statehood and integrate Ukraine into Europe over many years." - By Anne Applebaum - WP
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"What the West needs now is not merely a military policy but a comprehensive, long-term strategy designed to reinforce Ukrainian statehood and integrate Ukraine into Europe over many years.
...
We could recognize the real danger Russia poses to Europe, not only as a source of violence but also as a source of political and economic corruption. We could impose much harsher, much deeper sanctions. We could cut Russia out of the international payments system. We could enforce our own laws and stop turning a blind eye to Russian money laundering, most of which takes place in European capitals."
M.N.: This article is a sober minded and balanced assessment with a particular, elegant lady's touch. I would add to it that not only Ukrainian situation (as a focus of comprehensive and multi-pronged corrective measures, in addition to those suggested by Ms. Applebaum) should be taken with the benefit of a long view, but, maybe more importantly, the reassessment of Russia herself in long term perspective is needed. The recent events are the indication that Russia is and will be the source of instability and threats, especially given her historical-genetic propensity to produce and nurture Genghis Khans even more aggressive and megalomaniacal than the current one who are well skilled in wearing their masks until their suitable time comes. The long term effective strategies have to be developed to deal with this threat which will not disappear despite all the wishful thinking. In a way this is a return to the square one but with even more and more dangerous sharp angles and edges. I have the intuitive feeling that they will be dealt with, in due time and on a long term basis, slowly but surely and without the unnecessary hype and huffing-puffing of the "crisis".
President Vladimir Putin has cultivated his image as a strong and healthy leader, unafraid to show off his muscles in the Siberian wilderness or hit the slopes in the Caucasus Mountains. Yet, Putin has been at the heart of rumors about his health in recent years, all of which have been denied by the Kremlin.
Here are examples of the diagnoses that Putin has been given by the media.
Cancer Rumors
In October, The New York Post reported that Putin was allegedly sick with pancreatic cancer, citing unnamed sources. The article cited a German doctor who had alleged that Putin was receiving steroid shots, possibly explaining the president's "puffy appearance."
The tabloid also reported that Polish and Belarussian media outlets had speculated that Putin had been diagnosed with spinal cord cancer. British magazine The Week also reported the rumor in January of last year, saying that Putin had been trying to "clear his conscience" by releasing Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oil tycoon who had been jailed for 10 years on politically motivated charges.
Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, assured in October that the Russian president was healthy and that journalists should "bite their tongue."
Back Problems
After Japanese officials cited Putin's health as the reason behind the cancellation of an official visit to Moscow in Nov. 2012, the media was abuzz with rumors that Putin had a serious health condition.
It turned out that Putin had simply strained a back muscle during a rigorous judo session, according to Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, with whom Putin occasionally plays pickup hockey games.
"He [Putin] loves judo," Lukashenko told Reuters at the time. "He lifted a guy, threw him, and twisted his spine."
The Kremlin downplayed the incident, saying that rumors about Putin's back condition had been "strongly exaggerated."
...
We could recognize the real danger Russia poses to Europe, not only as a source of violence but also as a source of political and economic corruption. We could impose much harsher, much deeper sanctions. We could cut Russia out of the international payments system. We could enforce our own laws and stop turning a blind eye to Russian money laundering, most of which takes place in European capitals."
M.N.: This article is a sober minded and balanced assessment with a particular, elegant lady's touch. I would add to it that not only Ukrainian situation (as a focus of comprehensive and multi-pronged corrective measures, in addition to those suggested by Ms. Applebaum) should be taken with the benefit of a long view, but, maybe more importantly, the reassessment of Russia herself in long term perspective is needed. The recent events are the indication that Russia is and will be the source of instability and threats, especially given her historical-genetic propensity to produce and nurture Genghis Khans even more aggressive and megalomaniacal than the current one who are well skilled in wearing their masks until their suitable time comes. The long term effective strategies have to be developed to deal with this threat which will not disappear despite all the wishful thinking. In a way this is a return to the square one but with even more and more dangerous sharp angles and edges. I have the intuitive feeling that they will be dealt with, in due time and on a long term basis, slowly but surely and without the unnecessary hype and huffing-puffing of the "crisis".
In an ordinary year, not all that much happens at the annual Munich security conference. NATO defense ministers murmur earnest platitudes. Experts furrow their brows. But this is not an ordinary year.
This year, the normally staid audience laughed out loud at the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who seemed, at one point, to question the legality of German unification. Some of the room also applauded loudly when Angela Merkel, the German chancellor — just back from an apparently fruitless peace mission to Moscow — restated her view that “there is no military solution” to the conflict in Ukraine. But when Malcolm Rifkind, the former British foreign secretary, asked her how she would stop Russia without military force, another part of the audience applauded. Even watching online, the conundrum in the room was clear: Everyone agrees that the Russians were lying, and no one believes Russian promises of a cease-fire. But nobody agrees on what to do about it.
Anne Applebaum writes a biweekly foreign affairs column for The Washington Post. She is also the Director of the Global Transitions Program at the Legatum Institute in London.
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Clearly, the real debate about Ukraine and Russia has yet to begin, by which I don’t just mean the “should we arm Ukraine?” debate. This is an appealing discussion, not least because it appears to pit the United States (Mars) against Europe (Venus). But fundamentally, it’s a red herring. The armaments debate is an argument about short-term tactics, not long-term strategy — and it ignores the real nature of the Russian game.
Before last year, eastern Ukraine had no history of ethnic conflict. Well-armed “separatists” emerged on the scene only when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered them there. The “civil war” that ensued is an artificial conflict, run by Russian security and enhanced by a sophisticated pan-European disinformation campaign. It will last as long as the Russians want it to last. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, has told the Wall Street Journal that the Russians have deployed their most modern air defense and electronic warfare systems, weapons “way above and beyond” anything a rebel army could deploy.
The point of the war is not to achieve a victory. The point is to prevent the emergence of anything resembling a prosperous, European Ukraine, because such a state would pose an ideological threat to Putinism. Following this logic, even a German-brokered cease-fire will not bring “peace,” but rather a so-called “frozen conflict,” following an old KGB design: Transnistria in Moldova, South Ossetia in Georgia, now Novorossiya in Ukraine. Once it is up and running, Russia can set up a new secret police service in Novorossiya, create new bases for the Russian army, perhaps train terrorist squads there. Mysterious bombs have already exploded in Kiev and Kharkiv . In December, six bombs went off in Odessa alone.
This can all happen very quickly, within days or weeks, which is why the argument about “arming Ukraine” is almost beside the point. Yes, over time, the Ukrainian army could be reinforced: That might keep the borders of the new Russian puppet state from expanding further. But even the United States can’t deliver weapons fast enough to push the most sophisticated Russian weaponry out of Ukraine anytime soon. Short of sending the 82nd Airborne division into Donetsk, it’s hard to see how even the most high-tech U.S. aid can prevent the establishment of Novorossiya, since in practice it already exists.
What the West needs now is not merely a military policy but a comprehensive, long-term strategy designed to reinforce Ukrainian statehood and integrate Ukraine into Europe over many years. We could begin training not only the Ukrainian military but also the security services, which were devastated by the previous Ukrainian president. We could push far more forcefully for economic reform and support it with real financial commitments. We could treat this as a very long-term project, as Merkel suggested on Saturday, build a Berlin Wall around Donetsk in the form of a demilitarized zone and treat the rest of Ukraine like West Germany.
We could recognize the real danger Russia poses to Europe, not only as a source of violence but also as a source of political and economic corruption. We could impose much harsher, much deeper sanctions. We could cut Russia out of the international payments system. We could enforce our own laws and stop turning a blind eye to Russian money laundering, most of which takes place in European capitals. The city of London and the gnomes of Zurich might pay a price for the loss of Russian clients. But that price will still be far lower than the potential costs of doing nothing.
For what is the alternative? Ukraine collapses, and Putin is emboldened, as he was after his invasion of Georgia in 2008. He begins planning the next “frozen conflict.” If he does so in a NATO state, perhaps Lithuania or Estonia, a much wider and even more damaging European conflict would follow. We don’t want a new Cold War — but even that would be preferable to a new World War. And if we don’t come up with a serious strategy to prevent one, that’s what we’ll get.
Read more from Anne Applebaum’s archive, follow her on Twitter or subscribe to her updates on Facebook.
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 BBC News |
Ukraine crisis: 'Don't arm Kiev' Russia warns US
BBC News A close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has told the European Parliament that "all-out war" could result if the US supplies arms to the Ukrainian government in Kiev. Alexei Pushkov, a leading Russian MP, was addressing about 100 MEPs in the ... The long view with RussiaWashington Post Don't Arm Ukraine, Russia Tells The WestSky News Hundreds of Russian troops stage exercises near UkraineReuters Deutsche Welle- The Guardian all 1,965 news articles » |
 РИА Новости |
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РИА Новости Посол Ирана в РФ Медхи Санаи отметил, что Иран придает большое значение роли России в иранской ядерной программе. Посол Ирана в Российской Федерации Мехди Санаи. Архивное фото. © РИА Новости. Михаил Воскресенский | Купить иллюстрацию. МОСКВА, 10 фев — РИА ... Иран пережил санкции Запада - посолАМИ Тренд Иран не считает санкции "концом света"Федеральное агентство новостей No.1 Иран выразил надежду на поставки российских ПВО С-300 в 2015 годуВзгляд РБК-Нефть России -ФБА «Экономика сегодня» Все похожие статьи: 45 » |
 Channel News Asia |
Hundreds of Russian troops stage exercises near Ukraine
Reuters Separately, more than 600 soldiers had started training in the southern Crimea peninsula, and in Kamchatka, in Russia's east, 2,500 soldiers of the Pacific Fleet and joint forces were checked for military readiness. The maneuvers in southern Russia ... 2000 reconnaissance troops stage exercises in Russia - InterfaxChannel News Asia Russia Begins Military Exercises in Crimea One Day Before Minsk SummitArutz Sheva all 28 news articles » |
Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko will not be present at a summit on east Ukraine this week but his actions will help determine the success or failure of any peace deal.
A 24-year-old woman has died in Moscow after reportedly being electrocuted by a smartphone charger after her iPhone 4 fell into the bathtub.
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A terrifying video has been released showing the moment a circus lion tamer was mauled by one of her animals – a decade after her husband was killed doing the same routine.
 ABC News |
From Russia With Love: Vladimir Putin Gives Sissi AK-47
ABC News While Ukraine continues to sink deeper into chaos by the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin has skipped town for a two-day visit to Cairo, Egypt. And with him, he brought a special token of his appreciation for his host, President Abdel Fattah el ... Russia's Putin in Cairo for talks with Egypt's SisiBBC News Russia's Putin, Egypt's Sisi say committed to fighting terrorismReuters Putin Says Russia and Egypt 'Actively' Discussing Replacing U.S. Dollar in ...TheBlaze.com The Fiscal Times -U.S. News & World Report-Al-Arabiya all 540 news articles » |
Russia's Vladimir Putin presented Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi with an authentic Russian-made Kalashnikov AK-47 assault rifle while visiting the Egyptian capital of Cairo on Tuesday.
Russian repeatedly attempted to silence critics of Russian president Vladimir Putin on Twitter, according to data released by the social media giant.
SARTANA, Ukraine — Fighting in eastern Ukraine intensified Tuesday ahead of much-anticipated peace talks, with both sides claiming significant advances and the government accusing the rebels of shelling a town far behind the front lines.
The intense fighting, which the United Nations says has killed more than 5,300 people since April, comes ahead of a crucial summit involving Western leaders on Wednesday, as well as peace talks later Tuesday.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told parliament that Russian-backed rebels launched an artillery strike on the town of Kramatorsk, which is more than 50 kilometers (30 miles) away from the front line. Poroshenko said the first round of rocket fire hit the headquarters of the Ukrainian command in eastern Ukraine and the second landed in a residential area.
The government-controlled Donetsk regional administration said seven people were killed, while 16 people were injured in the residential area and 10 more at the military headquarters.
Kramatorsk was the site of major fighting until July when pro-Russian separatists retreated.
Local website Donetskiye Novosti posted photos from the scene, showing an artillery shell stuck in the ground next to a residential building and two bodies lying nearby.
Rebels denied any involvement in the attack.
The volunteer Azov battalion, loyal to Kiev, said on social media Tuesday that it captured several villages northeast of the strategic port of Mariupol, pushing the rebels closer to the border with Russia. However, rebel military spokesman Eduard Basurin said in a televised news conference that the rebels have not retreated.
The Azov said rebels shelled the village of Kominternove, east of Mariupol, causing unspecified civilian casualties. A reporter at a government checkpoint between there and government-controlled Mariupol was told of ongoing fighting several miles away. Two ambulances and four pick-up trucks carrying Ukrainian troops were seen coming from the direction of Kominternove toward Mariupol.
Oleksandr Turchynov, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council, visited the battalion on Tuesday and said the government offensive aimed to bolster the defense of Mariupol and "protect civilians from artillery strikes."
The rebels reported advances, too. Basurin said late Monday that they have surrounded the railway hub of Debaltseve, the focus of fierce fighting in the past weeks, cutting it off from a major highway. A video posted online by a rebel-sympathizing website showed the separatists moving along the highway while the bloodied bodies of Ukrainian soldiers lay on the side of the road.
At least seven Ukrainian troops were killed overnight in the east, Ukrainian military spokesman Anatoliy Matyukhin said on Tuesday. In the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, which comes under constant shelling, two civilians were killed and 12 injured.
The fierce fighting and a mounting death toll comes amid renewed efforts to work out a peaceful solution in a conflict that has displaced at least 1 million people and left the powerhouse of the Ukrainian economy in ruins.
Representatives of Ukraine, Russia, rebels and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are meeting for long-anticipated talks later on Tuesday to lay the groundwork for a meeting on Wednesday between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France.
The Kremlin on Tuesday warned the West ahead of the talks against sending weapons to Ukraine or putting pressure on Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told the Russian News Service radio station on Tuesday that any talk about imposing new sanctions on Russia or arming the Ukraine government would destabilize the situation in Ukraine.
The talks in Minsk on Tuesday were tentatively scheduled for 6 p.m. local time (1600 GMT), the Belarussian foreign ministry said.
In Washington on Monday, President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel rallied behind efforts to reach a long-shot diplomatic resolution to the conflict, but they offered no clear path for how the West would proceed if talks this week fail. Merkel staunchly opposed arming Ukraine's beleaguered military while Obama dangled the prospect that the United States could for the first time send weapons to Ukraine.
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Alexei Nikolsky / RIA Novosti / Kremlin / ReutersKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the report claiming Putin suffers from Aspergers as “nonsense.”
"Who is Mr. Putin?" The ongoing Ukraine conflict has breathed new life into a question that has long stumped Western policymakers and analysts.
Efforts to grasp President Vladimir Putin's logic have all but reduced Western leaders to soothsaying and studying tea leaves, with hundreds of thousands of U.S. taxpayer dollars having been allocated to scientific research projects aimed at analyzing the Russian leader's body language.
Russian analysts concur that attempts to explain Putin's behavior with reference to his perceived physical or mental ailments are understandable given the centrality of his role in Russian politics, but that they are scientifically futile, as these researchers in fact have very little understanding of the Russian mentality.
A Series of Claims
The latest finding from a remote examination of Putin's mental health emerged last week on the pages of USA Today.
Brenda Connors, a senior fellow at the strategic research department of the Naval War College and a former U.S. State Department officer, prepared a study on Putin in 2008 for the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), a Pentagon think tank. According to USA Today, since 2009 the Pentagon has paid upward of $365,000 to outside experts to support and assist Connors' program, "Body Leads."
Based on the analysis of video footage, Connors' report advanced the theory that Putin suffers from Asperger's syndrome, "an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions."
Rumors Reported About Putin's Health
President Vladimir Putin has cultivated his image as a strong and healthy leader, unafraid to show off his muscles in the Siberian wilderness or hit the slopes in the Caucasus Mountains. Yet, Putin has been at the heart of rumors about his health in recent years, all of which have been denied by the Kremlin.
Here are examples of the diagnoses that Putin has been given by the media.
Cancer Rumors
In October, The New York Post reported that Putin was allegedly sick with pancreatic cancer, citing unnamed sources. The article cited a German doctor who had alleged that Putin was receiving steroid shots, possibly explaining the president's "puffy appearance."
The tabloid also reported that Polish and Belarussian media outlets had speculated that Putin had been diagnosed with spinal cord cancer. British magazine The Week also reported the rumor in January of last year, saying that Putin had been trying to "clear his conscience" by releasing Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oil tycoon who had been jailed for 10 years on politically motivated charges.
Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, assured in October that the Russian president was healthy and that journalists should "bite their tongue."
Back Problems
After Japanese officials cited Putin's health as the reason behind the cancellation of an official visit to Moscow in Nov. 2012, the media was abuzz with rumors that Putin had a serious health condition.
It turned out that Putin had simply strained a back muscle during a rigorous judo session, according to Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, with whom Putin occasionally plays pickup hockey games.
"He [Putin] loves judo," Lukashenko told Reuters at the time. "He lifted a guy, threw him, and twisted his spine."
The Kremlin downplayed the incident, saying that rumors about Putin's back condition had been "strongly exaggerated."
(MT)
The report surfaced years after its completion, at a time when the Ukraine crisis had heightened diplomatic tensions between Russia and the West to levels unparalleled since the Cold War, with Putin positioned at the center of the unfolding drama.
"The behavioral implications of the early trauma Putin suffered are profound, affecting his ability to socially interact, which poses great behavioral challenges to his cognitive and emotional processing as leader," the report said, claiming that Putin suffered "the neurological insult" early in life, and that he did not crawl as an infant.
The study portrayed Putin as a deeply insecure man constantly seeking stability through control: "His primary form of compensation is extreme control." Putin himself has said that since childhood, he has always dreamt of being a strong leader.
In a series of interviews he gave to three prominent Russian journalists, published in 2000, Putin reflected upon the bullying he endured as a young boy. Harassment from other children in his Leningrad neighborhood ultimately inspired him to take up martial arts: first boxing, then judo.
He has carried the lessons learned during those formative career with him to the Kremlin. Throughout the course of his career, Putin has emphasized the imperative of Russian strength, because "the weak are beaten."
The ONA report likewise portrays Putin as a man who fears losing balance.
"Putin's lack of psychophysical stability" requires him to "impose a sense of deep control and willful power over his every conscious move in order to simply remain balanced," it said.
It is by defying this condition that Putin has become so strong, according to the report: "In many ways his handicap has peculiarly served him and Russia in the short-term well."
White House spokesman Josh Earnest refused to comment when asked by USA Today on Thursday whether U.S. President Barack Obama had read the ONA report on Putin.
The same day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the report as "nonsense that does not deserve a comment," news site Gazeta.ru quoted him as saying.
The 2008 study cited Dr. Stephen Porges, now a University of North Carolina psychiatry professor, as concluding that "Putin carries a form of autism, a pervasive disorder called Asperger's Syndrome."
In e-mailed comments to The Moscow Times, Dr. Porges confirmed that he had examined video footage of Putin, but denied having suggested that the Russian leader suffers from Asperger's.
"I would not conclude that he would be diagnosed with any form of autism," Dr. Porges said. "Many people are uncomfortable in complex formal settings. Although individuals with Asperger's have these features, many individuals have these features, including most of my academic colleagues and many people with histories of trauma."
Putin has likely been exposed to more than his fair share of psychological testing in the past. Having cut his teeth in the public sphere as a perpetually on-the-rise KGB officer, Putin was required to undergo harsh psychiatric and physical examinations to obtain his position, and then to continue enduring such analyses just to keep it.
Rumors of Putin's health have not been limited to his mental state. Citing sources close to the Kremlin, The New York Post reported in October that Putin was suffering from pancreatic cancer. [See sidebar].
The report went so far as to suggest the Russian president only had three years left to live, and that he wanted to expand Russia's borders in the little time he had left so as to leave a lasting legacy "like Peter the Great or Stalin."
This, the U.S. tabloid speculated, was what had motivated Putin's decision to "invade Ukraine."
The Kremlin's Peskov swiftly denied the cancer rumor.
In 2005, The Atlantic magazine reported that Putin "could have had a stroke, perhaps suffered in utero," citing a group of medical professionals including surgeons, a physical therapist and a holistic healer who had examined footage of Putin's gait.
The Enigma
According to Alexander Konovalov, head of Moscow-based think tank the Institute of Strategic Assessments, all of these efforts boil down to the Putin enigma.
"Everybody sees that the whole system of decision-making in Russia is concentrated on one single man, who is not limited or checked by any systemic institutions," Konovalov told The Moscow Times in a phone interview.
"I believe that many of Putin's actions cannot be interpreted within rational models of behavior," he said. "Therefore, to many he is still a closed book."
Yevgeny Minchenko, head of the International Institute for Political Expertise, said he thought the ONA report was "superficial," and that it represented only a small part of ongoing efforts to interpret and predict Putin's actions.
Minchenko recalled that similar studies have been conducted in the United States before, for instance with the psychological portrait of Adolf Hitler. At the same time, with Putin there is a particular problem — Western pundits find it difficult to understand his logic.
"Any attempt to understand Putin without understanding the mentality of ordinary Russians would be futile," he said.
Minchenko himself conducted a psychological portrait of Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko in the past for a client whose name he refused to disclose. According to the author, his predictions have become realities.
The Russian Equivalent
Yekaterina Egorova, president of the Nikkolo-M political consultancy in Moscow, has penned numerous psychological portraits of prominent international political figures for Soviet officials under Yury Andropov and Mikhail Gorbachev, as well as for Russia's first President, Boris Yeltsin.
"I have written a 14-page report for Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze on U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, detailing how to negotiate with him and even how to stand a little bit behind at the photo shootings in order to soothe Baker's yearning for leadership," she told The Moscow Times. Shevardnadze, according to Egorova, followed her instructions.
The Russian government no longer commissions such reports from members of the public, but the practice surely continues in a more clandestine atmosphere, Egorova said.
Putin, for his part, is heavily studied in the West, but without much result.
"They believe Putin is much more complicated than he really is," she said. "And there is definitely an element of demonization in their work."
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Alexei Chernyshev / ReutersUkrainian servicemen launch Grad rockets towards pro-Russian separatist forces outside Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine Feb. 8.
The outcome of the Ukraine crisis talks in Minsk on Wednesday depends on whether the United States is prepared to exert enough influence on the divergent power elites in Kiev to accept the deal, analysts told The Moscow Times.
Whether Washington will opt to pressure the diverse political forces in Kiev to compromise, or will choose to send lethal weapons to Ukraine, thus raising the stakes even further, depends on the internal political situation in the U.S., which is already gearing up for the 2016 presidential election, they said.
As German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande scramble to broker a diplomatic solution to the conflict, the question is what arrangement would suit both Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, whose country is widely believed to be backing the separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Moreover, as the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France prepare to engage in a decisive round of talks Wednesday, it is clear that while Putin controls the elites in Russia and enjoys widespread popular support, Poroshenko is further challenged by the divisions among the ruling parties in Kiev.
According to analysts interviewed by The Moscow Times, these rifts can only be overcome by the U.S. government, which is not party to Wednesday's negotiations.
What Does Putin Want?
While denying involvement in the conflict, Putin has repeatedly stated what outcome Russia would like to see emerge from the ongoing Ukraine crisis.
In an interview with the local Al-Ahram newspaper ahead of his visit to Egypt on Monday, Putin said that in order to end the crisis Ukraine will have to adopt a constitutional framework that will accommodate the country's diversity.
"They need to devise a constitutional state system that would ensure the safety and comfort of all citizens, with human rights fully observed," Putin told the newspaper, according to a transcript published on the Kremlin's website.
Both Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have previously said that Ukraine needs to become a federal state, in which each constituent region would have the right to influence key foreign policy decisions, including potential NATO membership.
Putin has also said that the Crimean Peninsula that was annexed from Ukraine by Russia last March must remain Russian territory, and that the government in Kiev that Moscow says came to power as the result of an unconstitutional coup must recognize the rebel formations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as equally legitimate and negotiate with their leaders.
In essence, Putin wants Ukraine to become a neutral buffer state that will not be part of the West's political, economic and cultural orbit. Any change of this status will necessarily involve a compromise with Russia, according to Putin's logic.
What Does Poroshenko Want?
In his inaugural speech as Ukraine's president last June, Poroshenko said that "Russia has occupied Crimea that was, is and will be Ukrainian."
"There can be no compromise on the questions of Crimea, the European choice and our state constitution," he said.
The Ukrainian government officially regards both the separation of Crimea and civil unrest in the country's east as purely a result of Russia's actions there. Therefore, what it wants is for things to return to the way they were.
At the same time, Poroshenko has been much less hawkish than many other officials in the Ukrainian government, including Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the Ukrainian parliament, which has officially declared that Russia is "undertaking state aggression against Ukraine."
Poroshenko has declared his support for decentralization of the country by giving more authority to regional administrations. He has also granted the rebel-held regions special legal status and said he is ready to declare them a free economic zone.
The real question is whether he can accept a compromise with Putin and still remain in power at home.
Unlike Putin, Poroshenko does not enjoy the support of a consolidated ruling elite in Kiev. According to Mikhail Pogrebinsky, head of the Center of Political and Conflict Studies think tank in Kiev, many top government officials would not accept any compromise with the Kremlin.
"The most active part of the so-called "war faction" that consists of the majority of Cabinet and parliament members would never agree and will resist a possible deal at all costs," Pogrebinsky said in a phone interview Monday.
"Only the U.S. government can influence these people," he said.
What Does the West Want?
While it is clear that the European countries are ready to accept a compromise in order to end the conflict, what the U.S. wants is less clear, Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, told The Moscow Times.
"The question is whether Washington is ready to pressure the Kiev government at large into accepting that the rebel-held territories will become a frozen conflict zone, akin to the one in Transdnestr," he said.
Transdnestr is a breakaway state in the Republic of Moldova that hosts a Russian military base and is heavily dependent on Russian subsidies.
While Merkel and Hollande traveled to both Kiev and Moscow in order to broker a compromise last week, the U.S. ruling establishment has been pondering whether to send lethal weapons to Ukraine.
Merkel has been vocal in her opposition to arming the Ukrainian government, traveling to Washington on Monday to argue against the potential move before Wednesday's key talks in Minsk.
At the same time, whether weapons will be sent depends on how U.S. internal politics play out, according to Trenin.
"As a strategic player, the U.S. is really Russia's only opponent in the Ukraine crisis, so it has a much bigger influence on events than Europe," Trenin said.
"Ukraine as such is a marginal topic in U.S. internal politics, so sending arms there or pressuring its officials to accept a deal is more a question of the political fight ahead of the presidential election in 2016," he said.
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U.S. provision of military aid to Ukraine would be seen by Moscow as a declaration of war and spark a global escalation of Ukraine's separatist conflict, Russian defense analysts said.
With Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine seizing new territory from the Ukrainian army, voices in Washington are demanding that Kiev be given defensive weapons and hardware — including lethal equipment — to hold the line.
But if such aid were sent, "Russia would reasonably consider the U.S. to be a direct participant in the conflict," said Evgeny Buzhinsky, a military expert at the Moscow-based PIR Center.
Speaking to The Moscow Times on a condition of anonymity, a member of the Russian Defense Ministry's public advisory board warned that Moscow would not only up the ante in eastern Ukraine, "but also respond asymmetrically against Washington or its allies on other fronts."
Crossroads
Ukraine is at a crossroads. With rebel forces reportedly massing for a renewed assault on the strategically valuable railroad hub of Debaltseve and the port city of Mariupol, the West is racing to find the best means to bring a swift end to the conflict.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande traveled to Moscow last week to attempt to hash out a peace proposal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The proposal is set to be discussed with all parties in the Belarussian capital of Minsk on Wednesday, but some consider peace talks hopeless, and advocate military measures.
The U.S.-led NATO military alliance says Moscow has sent troops and arms to aid pro-Russian rebels fighting in eastern Ukraine — which Russia denies. Calls to arm Ukraine are seen as a way to even the odds for the Ukrainian army, enabling Kiev to halt rebel advances and force them — and the Kremlin — to negotiate.
U.S. think tank the Atlantic Council called last month for Washington to give $3 billion in lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine over the next three years.
But Russian defense analysts polled by The Moscow Times said unanimously that U.S. arms transfers to Ukraine would be interpreted in Moscow as a declaration of open proxy war with Russia and inevitably lead to escalation of the conflict.
"It would become tit-for-tat," said Maxim Shepovalenko, an analyst at the Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technology (CAST).
"Moscow will not just sit by calmly and see what happens, it will counteract," he said.
Asymmetric Response
The Russian counterstrike could take the conflict far beyond Ukraine, according to the source on the Defense Ministry's public advisory board.
Pointing to one possible avenue of asymmetrical retaliation, the source said Moscow could give in to long-standing Chinese requests for sensitive defense technologies that would aid in its development of high-tech weapons capable of doing serious damage to U.S. naval forces in the Asia-Pacific.
Moscow has so far declined China's requests on "politically correct pretenses," the source said.
"That's just one example. We can also encourage Iran, or even back Iran in a fight — a military operation — with Saudi Arabia, so then the prices for oil will skyrocket," the source said, explaining that these were just two possible responses.
Who Are We Giving This to?
The U.S. has already given a modest amount of non-lethal military aid to Ukraine, such as the delivery of three counter-battery radar systems to help identify the point of origin of pro-Russian rebel artillery fire.
The CAST think tank wrote on its Russian-language blog last week that two of the three radars had already been destroyed, citing the outfit's sources on the ground in eastern Ukraine.
Only one of the units was reportedly destroyed by rebel fire. The other was reportedly dropped by Ukrainian soldiers — underscoring the difficulty of providing aid and ensuring it gets put to good use.
"You might give aid to the regular armed forces, not the volunteer battalions, but you still need trained operators. Training takes time, additional money, and more than anything else — it takes practical experience," said Shepovalenko.
U.S. deployment of trainers to Ukraine would mean sending U.S. military personnel into Ukraine — which could easily be construed by Moscow as U.S. involvement in the war.
Beyond training, there is no guarantee that weapons and hardware will not fall into enemy hands or wet the beaks of corrupt Ukrainian army personnel.
Corruption in the ranks cannot be discounted, according to the PIR Center's Buzhinsky: "It is absolutely certain that at least fifty percent of what is delivered will be stolen and then sold on the side," he said.
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Andrei Makhonin / Vedomosti2,000 Russian reconnaissance troops have started exercises in southern Russia.
Hundreds of Russian troops started military exercises in southern Russia near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday, in a show of strength before a summit on the Ukraine crisis in the Belarussian capital of Minsk.
News agencies quoted military officials as saying that about 2,000 Russian reconnaissance troops had started large-scale exercises in the southern military district.
Separately, more than 600 soldiers had started training in the southern Crimean Peninsula, and in Kamchatka, in Russia's east, 2,500 soldiers of the Pacific Fleet and joint forces were checked for military readiness.
The maneuvers in southern Russia would include training on tracking devices to determine enemy movements in bad visibility. In Crimea, soldiers would undergo tactical and shooting training, the news agencies reported.
The leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany are expected to meet in Minsk on Wednesday to seek an end to fighting in eastern Ukraine, which has killed more than 5,000 people since last April.
The West accuses Russia of backing an advance in recent weeks by separatists, which scuppered a cease-fire agreed last September. Moscow denies it is involved.
The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine plan to hold a summit on the Ukraine crisis in the Belarussian capital of Minsk on Wednesday. Here is an outline of the sides' positions before the meeting.
Greek Finance Minister Tests EU's Ways of Winning Friendsby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Greece's new finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, heads to a Eurogroup finance ministers meeting on Wednesday to ask for something almost no one there wants to give - at its most basic, a new debt agreement without the strings of austerity. His officials say he expects a tough time. The question is whether he will come out like one of his predecessors, Evangelos Venizelos, having been humiliated. Varoufakis is a charismatic type who is clearly enjoying a degree of European, if not global, celebrity. He has been dubbed “Superstar” by Greek media and even become something of a hearthrob in Germany's media. But he has already upset some of the people he needs to convince, saying the eurozone was at risk of collapse, Italy's debt is unsustainable and bringing up Germany's Nazi past. He will need his counterparts onside if he is to get first a bridge agreement to cover immediate financing and then a renewed debt plan. “The best way to get a deal in the EU is by quietly building alliances behind closed doors and then trying to build consensus around compromises. Noisy confrontation usually leads to resistance and isolation,” a former diplomat in Brussels said. Greek officials have made it clear that they have some “red lines,” namely a refusal to run large primary budget surpluses (the balance before interest payments on debt) and that the debt must be restructured. The Greek approach to date has been to talk about negotiations but make strident and sometimes threatening demands, rationalized by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' anti-austerity sweep in popular elections. Some of Varoufakis' performance may go further because of his economic expertise and practice in game theory. But despite the media delight at his persona - leather jacket, rugged looks, bluntness - Varoufakis's attempts so far to get support in Europe have done little to improve Greece's position in what is as of now an 18-to-1 euro zone standoff. Perhaps most damaging were comments on Italian television broadcast on Sunday. He said that the whole euro zone structure was teetering. “The euro is fragile, it's like building a castle of cards, if you take out the Greek card the others will collapse,” he according to an Italian transcript. This is a threat to his partners and the last thing a currency union struggling with economic malaise needs to hear. He then went on to imply that other countries will be next if Greece is forced by the crisis to leave the euro zone, saying according to the transcript: “Let's face it, Italy's debt situation is unsustainable.” Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who will be at Wednesday's Eurogroup meeting to hear Varoufakis's requests, said the remarks were “out of place” and that a European solution to Greece's problems requires “mutual trust.” Varoufakis later said that Padoan had telephoned him and that he had told the Italian he had been taken out of context and was referring to past experience from 2010-11. Greek fire In Brussels, officials who regard Varoufakis as a bit of a loose cannon console themselves with that fact he is not in charge. “He'll only be implementing policy, not [be] the architect. Tsipras will give the signals,” said one EU official who has been watching Varoufakis closely. But that may be wishful thinking. Tsipras himself gave an unbending speech at the weekend, announcing the end of austerity and adding an unexpected demand for German war reparations. This comes on top of Varoufakis' comments at an uncomfortable news conference with Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's fiscally hard-line finance minister, that Germany should understand Greece because of its Nazi past. “Nazism is rearing its ugly head in Greece,” he said, apparently referring to the far-right Greek political party Golden Dawn. True perhaps, but not something that is usually said in diplomatic circles with Germans. Defense Minister Panos Kammenos, meanwhile, has said that if Greece fails to get a new debt agreement with the euro zone, it could always look elsewhere for help - pointing to the United States, but also Russia and China. This will also not have gone down well in Brussels. Seasoned EU figures still believe there is a deal to be done but if so Varoufakis is going to have adopt a very different tack behind closed doors to the one he has taken in public.
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 Московский комсомолец |
Зятя Березовского объявили в международный розыск по обвинению в организации убийства
Московский комсомолец Зять Бориса Березовского, муж его дочери Екатерины Егор Шуппе объявлен Бабушкинским судом Москвы в международный розыск по ходатайству следователей — об этом сообщает ТАСС. Также заочно арестован и объявлен в розыск Михаил Некрич, экс-деловой партнер БАБа. и другие » |
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Donetsk Native, Backed by Putin, Unites Ukraine Rebelsby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko will not be present at a summit on east Ukraine this week but his actions will help determine the success or failure of any peace deal. While Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen in the West as holding the key to peace, Zakharchenko is regarded vital for ensuring Moscow's decisions are implemented. The 38-year former mine electrician, who often carries a pistol and knife and usually wears combat fatigues, has been tightening his grip on power since being named prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) last August. A Donetsk native, he has succeeded where a succession of Russians parachuted in by Moscow failed - by bringing at least a semblance of unity and authority to the ragtag separatists. 'Moscow wanted a local man' “Russia dropped its maximum goal of conquering Ukraine and bringing [ex-President Victor] Yanukovich back to power,” Yuriy Butusov, the Kyiv-based editor of the Censor.net Internet portal, said of Zakharchenko's role. “Russian operatives were no longer needed, so Moscow wanted a local man with enough influence and skill to unify and coordinate various battalions and their commanders,” said Butusov, who has covered the region since before the conflict began and regularly travels there. When he took over in the DNR seven months ago, the separatists looked on the verge of defeat by government forces. Backed by what Kyiv and the West said was an injection of Russian troops and weapons, the rebels turned the tide of the conflict and forced Kyiv into talks and a cease-fire agreement last September even though the truce never fully took hold. Moscow denies sending in arms and soldiers. But with Russia's backing Zakharchenko went on to win an election in November that was not recognized abroad and oversaw a rebel advance last month that pushed back Kyiv's forces. Called up new rebel troops It was Zakharchenko who in effect declared the cease-fire dead, calling up new troops and saying the separatists would push government troops back to the edge of Donetsk region. The new hostilities were key to France and Germany launching a peace initiative which resulted in Wednesday's summit being scheduled in Belarus with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders. Zakharchenko did not reply to interview requests. He has regularly praised Putin and congratulated him on his 62nd birthday, but has never said he takes orders from him. Supporters see Zakharchenko as a tough leader they can respect. Recent Russian television footage showed Zakharchenko continuing to talk to journalists after one of his bodyguards, standing just behind him, appeared to be shot by a sniper. “We were dodging bullets, but he didn't even flinch,” said a rebel commander who gave his name only as The Ironside. Zakharchenko rose to prominence when he and other men from Oplot, a street-fighting club, armed with old rifles and machineguns, stormed Donetsk city hall almost a year ago at the start of the rebellion against Kyiv's rule. He said they were restoring order, but Oplot took over local television transmitters and other property. By mid-2014, he was military commander of Donetsk, using Oplot's muscle to ensure control of the city. He forged sometimes tense alliances with other rebel units and was wounded in the arm in battle, earning him a medal from ex-rebel leader Igor Strelkov, who commissioned him as a major. He also won three more medals, which he often wears in public. Better life campaign As Russian-born leaders including his predecessor Alexander Borodai, Strelkov and deputy prime minister Vladimir Antufeev faded from the scene and left Ukraine, his rise continued. Promising a better life while campaigning for the November election, in which he was the only major candidate, he said pensions should be “higher than in Poland.” “Pensioners should have enough to take a safari trip to Australia once a year to shoot kangaroos,” he said. He also told voters: “We are like the United Arab Emirates. Our region is very rich ... the only difference is that they don't have a war and we do.” For Kyiv and the United States, he is little more than a Kremlin tool. Samantha Power, the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said Zakharchenko's statements -- which he has sometimes reversed after speaking out of turn -- failed to hide Moscow was pulling the shots in east Ukraine. “Zakharchenko's statements are a problem for Russia because they are too straightforward,” she said.
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Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias will travel to Moscow on February 11 at the invitation of his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Russia's Putin Hopes Next Round of Syria Talks Bring Resolution by webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday he expected that there would be a new round of talks on the Syria conflict following from a meeting of some opposition figures and the Damascus government in Moscow last month. Standing next to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi after talks in Cairo, Putin said: “We look forward ... to the next round of such talks, which ultimately I hope will lead to a peaceful settlement of the situation in Syria.” The next meeting between some Syrian opposition figures and the Damascus government in Moscow are set to take place in about a month, a participant in the consultations in Russia had said on Jan. 30. The Moscow talks, which ended on Jan. 29, were not seen as yielding a breakthrough as they were shunned by the key political opposition and did not involve the main insurgent groups fighting on the ground in Syria. Moscow has been a long-standing ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose government has dubbed many of its opponents as terrorists. Russia says combating terrorism should be a top priority in Syria. The conflict has killed more than 200,000 people since protests against Assad started in 2011 and then descended into a war in which radical Islamists have now gained the upper hand among the anti-Assad forces.
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