Ukraine crisis: this conflict is far from over, "As presently drafted, the latest Minsk agreement requires no real concessions from Vladimir Putin." - Ukraine crisis: Vladimir Putin agrees new ceasefire - live - The Telegraph
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"As a result today’s ceasefire agreement will be greeted with deep scepticism by both those who have opposed the Franco-German initiative, as well as many in the West who have sincere doubts about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to observe his end of the bargain...
So, while many in the West may breathe a sigh of relief that the imposition of Sunday’s ceasefire might help to prevent a new European war, there is clearly much work to be done by all sides before this poisonous conflict is finally brought to an end."
11.29 The Minsk deal is a one-sided agreement which avoids the central issue of the Ukraine conflict and demands nothing of Vladimir Putin, writes David Blair, the Telegraph's Chief Foreign Correspondent:
The agreement emerging in Minsk appears to avoid one of the central issues at stake, namely the presence of thousands of Russian troops on Ukrainian territory.
A Russian force of about 9,000 soldiers, supported by tanks and heavy artillery, is believed to have entered Ukraine to help the rebel offensive.
This onslaught has succeeded in enlarging the breakaway statelet under insurgent control.
Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, had made the “withdrawal of foreign forces” his key demand.
For this to mean anything, it would also need to entail restoring Ukrainian control – or at least outside monitoring – of the country’s eastern border with Russia.
If this could be achieved, then the departure of Russian forces could be verified and they would not be able to re-enter without someone noticing.
Yet the new agreement merely states that "foreign armed formations" and "military equipment" will leave the "territory of Ukraine". No timetable is given and no deadline is set. Nor is there any provision for verification, save a vague line that the withdrawal should take place under the "supervision" of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
If Mr Poroshenko pushed for Russian forces to leave by a given date with a clear method of ensuring compliance, then he has come away empty handed. As presently drafted, the latest Minsk agreement requires no real concessions from Vladimir Putin.
Read in full: 'One-sided Minsk deal on Ukraine asks nothing of Putin'
11.12 Separatists have signed the document affirming the deal.
Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's president, says the deal envisages Ukraine regaining control of the joint border with Russia by the end of the year.
And the commitment to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity suggests the Kremlin has again rejected the separatists’ stated aim of full independence from Ukraine, while Mr Poroshenko has conceded that rebel-controlled regions must have a some degree of autonomy.
That likely means that Kiev will be lumbered with the bill for funding the Donbass while having little or no control over the region. Mr Poroshenko previously cut off all government funding and public services in rebel held areas.
"Vladimir Putin was there, too, of course, doing his sulky schoolboy act. Russia’s president is like the kid at the back of the class throwing paper balls and wishing he was somewhere else. In group photos, he looks like a wine waiter included by mistake. At one point in the talks, Putin snapped a green pencil in half in apparent frustration. Maybe he was pretending it was Nato...
Ukraine peace deal looks fragile in the extreme - The Guardian
Perhaps not coincidentally, the Minsk announcements came at the same time as news that the IMF has agreed to help bail out almost bankrupt Ukraine to the tune of $17.5bn (£11.4bn), part of an even bigger $40bn, four-year rescue package. Christine Lagarde, IMF chief, said the idea was to try to stabilise Kiev’s finances after nearly a year of war. This earnest show of western support sweetens a number of bitter pills Poroshenko may yet have to swallow as the Minsk mist lifts.
The German and French leaders will brief the EU later on Thursday on what they have achieved – and, presumably, the Americans, too. They are likely to be deeply sceptical. In the short term, the Franco-German duo appears to have stopped the fighting – for now, at least – prevented further escalation, headed off US pressure to supply arms to Kiev, and dragged the recalcitrant Putin back onboard. Europe can breathe a brief sigh of relief.
But the Minsk achievement looks fragile in the extreme. It is still very much in the making, the second beginning of a long, fraught process. Unseen calamities could suddenly unravel all the leaders’ work. Merkel was candid. The deal provided a “glimmer of hope” and no more, she said. When Hollande stressed there was still much work to do, he never spoke a truer word."
Analysis: With many issues still up in the air, the Minsk achievement is still very much in the making
Angela Merkel: "I have no illusion, we have no illusion. There is still very, very much work to be done. But there is a real chance to change things for the better."
08.21 To add to the confusion, separatist leaders are now reported to have rejected the outline agreement hammered out by Mr Putin, Mr Poroshenko, Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande, Roland Oliphant writes from Kiev.
TASS, the Russian news agency, cited an anonymous source saying separatist leaders had refused to sign an agreement hammered out by the four national leaders overnight.
Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky, the leaders of the self proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, are in Minsk where they are attending a meeting of a multilateral "contact group," but are not party to the talks between Mr Putin and Mr Poroshenko.
Leader of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic Alexander Zakharchenko (L) stands next to kneeling captive Ukrainian soldiers
Earlier this morning Vladislav Surkov, a close adviser to Vladimir Putin, was seen leaving Independence Palace, where the talks are taking place. Russian journalists said he had been dispatched to inform Mr Zakharchenko and Mr Plotnitsky of the details of the deal agreed by the four leaders.
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12 February 2015 Last updated at 07:37 ET
Putin loyalists seem more determined than ever to support the Russian president despite the squeeze
The value of the Russian currency has been falling
The conflict in eastern Ukraine has killed more than 5,000 people
Putin loyalists seem more determined than ever to support the Russian president despite the squeeze
As details are announced of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine after marathon negotiations, Bridget Kendall gauges the mood in Moscow amid worsening relations between Russia and the West, which are now at a point where many Russians see the US and its allies as their country's greatest enemy.
Russians are feeling the pinch. Some talk of salaries being frozen. Others worry that they might lose their jobs. Food prices have gone up. The rouble's value has plummeted. Some landlords - and even taxi drivers in Moscow - insist on being paid in dollars.
So the question is, has this squeeze affected support for President Putin and his government? The euphoria over taking Crimea has long subsided - to be replaced by a bleak mix of bloodshed in Ukraine and an economic downturn.
The news that the Minsk talks have managed to get agreement on a ceasefire will be greeted with relief by most Russians.
But I would caution those in the West who assume pressure from sanctions has been the key to bringing President Putin to the negotiating table. Belts may be tightening. But it's not clear Russian views of their government have been radically altered.
Widening gap
My sense is that over the last six months opinions here were not altered by the deepening Ukrainian crisis, but became more entrenched and polarised.
On one side, those who six months ago were mildly irritated by the annexation of Crimea but unwilling to apportion blame, now seem more virulently anti-Putin. They believe he has been using the Ukraine crisis to crack down at home and they fear for the future. But they also feel under siege, an isolated group in a country riding a wave of patriotism.
The value of the Russian currency has been falling
But on the other side, those loyal to Mr Putin seem more determined to support him than ever. They take their cue from the aggressive tone adopted by Russian television.
They not only accuse Kiev and the West of having fanned the war in Ukraine. They echo the Kremlin by asserting that this is just the latest crisis in a long-standing Western campaign to weaken or even destroy Russia.
Sanctions are part of that. And if the current ceasefire deal does not hold, and the conflict begins to escalate again and President Obama does decide to arm the Ukrainians, then that would be further proof that Western hostility towards Russia is deep seated.
Between these two camps of widely differing popular opinion, the gap is widening.
Rifts and quarrels
Take one friend, whom I shall call Galya. She said recently a woman in her office looked up at a TV screen which was showing the latest report of fighting in eastern Ukraine and hissed: "It is all the Americans' fault. They started this. I can't stand them."
Galya was surprised: the woman was young, modern, well-educated and well-travelled. She didn't look like a Kremlin loyalist. Galya made a mental note from now on to steer clear of politics in front of her.
The conflict in eastern Ukraine has killed more than 5,000 people
In fact, it seems that this is a constant calculation for those who are critical of President Putin. As they go about their lives in Moscow, they have to work out who they can speak frankly to - just as we used to when this was the Soviet Union.
"The other day I met an acquaintance I had not seen for years," said Galya. "I had no idea what she thought. So I skirted round the news about Ukraine and kept to safer subjects. Till she happened to mention that her son had got her a warm scarf to wear at an opposition rally.
"So then I said, 'Krym ne nash?' You too don't think Crimea is ours?
And she replied, "Krym ne nash" - Crimea does not belong to us. Thank God you think so, too."
“Start Quote
End QuoteMashaRussian womanWhy should anyone leave Russia? They should stay and support our country at this difficult time”
"And then we knew we could talk openly to each other."
The polarisation over politics is also causing rifts which are destroying lifelong relationships.
Another woman I spoke to, let us call her Lida, recounted a recent phone call with a former close friend from college, Masha. They had already fallen out over the controversial female punk rock band known as Pussy Riot, who were sent to prison for daring to sing a blasphemous song in one of Moscow's biggest cathedrals.
Lida thought they were funny and brave. Masha thought they had been offensive to God.
Once again, their phone call ended in a quarrel. Lida happened to mention a mutual friend who was emigrating.
"Why should she emigrate?" asked Masha angrily. "Why should anyone leave Russia? They should stay and support our country at this difficult time." And she added defiantly: "I at least am a patriot!"
And Masha, it seems, is in the majority - at least, according to recent opinion polls.
Pushed to the verge
The respected Levada Center in Moscow said its latest findings suggested that anti-Western sentiment in Russia is higher than it has ever been since the Soviet Union collapsed.
Negative attitudes towards the US have doubled since a year ago - now reaching a staggering 81% of those asked.
Hostility towards Europeans has also doubled, now standing at 71%.
The Kremlin narrative that Russia has been pushed to the verge of war with the West against its will has been extraordinarily successful.
A lasting peace in Ukraine might soften attitudes towards the West over time.
But for the moment, the outcome of the Minsk talks does Mr Putin no harm at all.
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After nearly a year of bitter fighting which has claimed the lives of more than 5,000 people and made more than a million people homeless, it will be hard for many people to believe that the ceasefire agreed in Minsk will ultimately lead to the end of the Ukraine conflict.
For a start, we have been here before when, following a similar round of talks last September resulted in the original Minsk Protocol, agreement on an all-encompassing ceasefire came to nothing, when hostilities between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian forces resumed within a matter of weeks amid mutual recriminations about ceasefire violations.
Since then the stakes in the conflict have risen considerably, with the Russians reported to have deployed around 9,000 troops, together with military equipment, into eastern Ukraine in support of the rebels, who are trying to create their own independent state, and Washington responding by giving serious consideration to providing sophisticated weapons to Kiev, including drones and anti-tank missiles.
It is to prevent the deepening crisis in Ukraine developing into a full-scale war between Russia and the West that French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have embarked on their last-ditch effort to bring the conflict back from the brink, even though their initiative has provoked accusations of appeasement from some of the more hawkish members of Washington’s security establishment, including former Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain.
As a result today’s ceasefire agreement will be greeted with deep scepticism by both those who have opposed the Franco-German initiative, as well as many in the West who have sincere doubts about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to observe his end of the bargain.
Indeed, given Mr Putin’s conduct during the negotiations, which have also included Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, the ceasefire can hardly be said to have been arranged in a spirit of mutual cooperation.
The talks in the Belarusian capital took place against a backdrop of continued heavy fighting, with intense shelling taking place around the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, and Ukrainian forces launching their own offensive around Mariupol.
And during the talks themselves Mr Poroshenko was reported as saying he found Moscow’s demarcation proposals for distancing rebel strongholds in the east from the rest of Ukraine as “unacceptable.” Indeed, even after the ceasefire was announced earlier today, Mr Hollande described the deal as a "serious hope but all not done.” Mrs Merkel, meanwhile, left Minsk after 16 hours of bruising talks with Mr Putin without making any comment.
So, while many in the West may breathe a sigh of relief that the imposition of Sunday’s ceasefire might help to prevent a new European war, there is clearly much work to be done by all sides before this poisonous conflict is finally brought to an end.
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If this could be achieved, then the departure of Russian forces could be verified and they would not be able to re-enter without someone noticing.
Yet the new agreement merely states that "foreign armed formations" and "military equipment" will leave the "territory of Ukraine". No timetable is given and no deadline is set. Nor is there any provision for verification, save a vague line that the withdrawal should take place under the "supervision" of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
If Mr Poroshenko pushed for Russian forces to leave by a given date with a clear method of ensuring compliance, then he has come away empty handed. As presently drafted, the latest Minsk agreement requires no real concessions from Vladimir Putin.
Instead, the proposals for a ceasefire and a withdrawal of heavy artillery impose disproportionate obligations on Ukraine.
The rebels and their Russian allies have already captured a significant amount of territory. With these gains in their metaphorical pocket, they can safely sign a ceasefire.
One of the few ways by which Ukraine has been able to hit back is by using heavy artillery. But if the guns fall silent under the new Minsk agreement, then Ukraine will lose its main way of pounding its enemies in the lost territory.
A withdrawal of forces along the ceasefire line will also provide little comfort. After all, this will mark the de facto partition of Ukrainian territory.
Any palliative words about the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine will mean little, given the stark fact that Russia and the rebels now control thousands of square miles.
On the face of it, the emerging agreement seems to meet few of Mr Poroshenko’s demands. At best, it will merely freeze the conflict at a moment when the advantage lies with his enemies.
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• This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
• Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
• On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.
• Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014.
• Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular departments of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine.
• Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of “all for all”. This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
• Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.
• Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field)
• With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.
• Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
• Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new Constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the footnotes, by the end of 2015.
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It was former president Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of that agreement under Russian pressure that sparked the revolution that led to the current crisis.
But the really interesting stuff is in the second document, which lays out time tables and step-by-step conditions for the implementation of a peace deal.
The first step is a general ceasefire from midnight on the 14th to 15th of February (Sunday).
That is to be followed two days later by a withdrawal of heavy artillery and rocket systems from the front line. Ukrainians are obliged to complete the withdrawal from the current line of contact, and the separatists from the original line agreed at the previous ceasefire in Minsk in September, within 14 days of the ceasefire.
Next comes a full prisoner exchange, with both sides committed to freeing all hostages and POWs within five days of the withdrawal of heavy weaponry.
Mr Poroshenko said he had secured agreement for the release of Nadia Savchenko, a Ukrainian army helicopter pilot who is being held in a Russian prisoner on charges of murdering two Russian journalists in the war zone.
Miss Savchenko has become an icon of resistance in Ukraine, and has been on hunger strike for over 60 days in protest at what she says are fabricated charges. Securing her release is a victory that will help Mr Poroshenko sell this deal to the Ukrainian public.
Previous efforts to organise ceasefires and prisoner exchanges have only been partially successful.
Even trickier is the political settlement - including a large slice of autonomy for the rebels, withdrawal of foreign (i.e. Russian, though that word is not used) troops, and restoration of Ukraine’s control of its border with Russia.
The mechanism outlined in the document is complex, delicate, and riddled with opportunities for either side to baulk or accuse the other of non-compliance.
First, the Ukrainian parliament has 30 days in which to reinstate a law granting special status - including more autonomy - to the eastern regions at the centre of the war.
Under that law, local elections must be organised in consultation with the defacto - i.e. separatist - authorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Next, Ukraine must pass sweeping constitutional reforms devolving significant power to the regions, including the right to raise their own police forces, chose an official regional language (this is designed to protect Russian language rights), and conclude cross-border deals with neighbouring regions of Russia. The central government will continue to fund the regions and restore banking services.
This is good news for the long-suffering civilians of the Donbass. Many have been left destitute and on the brink of starvation since Kiev cut off the banking system, pensions, and state-sector salaries in November, and the separatists have singularly failed to establish a functioning state to replace such services.
Ukraine has until the end of this year to pass those reforms. Only then will it be allowed to restore full control of its border with Russia.
But the text is rife with opportunities for disagreement and worse.
The delay before implementation of the ceasefire potentially grants both sides time to grab more ground before the guns fall silent. Russian-backed separatists may use the next two days to finish off their assault on the railway junction of Debaltseve.
If Ukraine really seals its borders, the separatists will be left incredibly vulnerable. They, and their Russian backers, may baulk at actually implementing that part of the deal.
Similarly, although the agreement calls for the withdrawal of “foreign armed units, military equipment, and also mercenaries” from Ukrainian territory under OSCE observation, no deadline is set for such a withdrawal.
And the agreement does not specifically mention Russian troops, absolving Moscow of any commitment to withdraw the forces it continues to deny are there (denials that Nato and Western governments scoff at).
The most contentious element is the devolution of power to the regions.
The agreement grants strong powers to the regions, but in an apparently conscious fudge does not mention the word “federalization” - which Moscow has previously insisted on, and which Mr Poroshenko has ruled out.
This is almost guaranteed to be a source of deal-breaking quarrels over meaning.
Nor does this document address the fundamental geo-political quarrel that sparked the war: Russia’s deep-seated opposition to Ukraine’s alignment with the European Union and Nato expansion.
One sign of progress, however, is that Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky, the leaders of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, are reported to have signed the Complex of Measures under pressure from Mr Putin.
Previously they have publicly rejected “special status” or federalisation within Ukraine, insisting that they would become either fully independent or join Russia.
Such intransigence played a major part in the collapse of the first Minsk agreement signed five months ago. They may yet torpedo this one.
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Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said there was no agreement on any autonomy or federalization for eastern Ukraine.
MINSK, Belarus — Guns will fall silent, heavy weapons will pull back from the front, and Ukraine will trade a broad autonomy for the east for control of the Russian border by the end of the year under a peace deal hammered out Thursday in all-night negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany
The deal was full of potential pitfalls, however, that could derail its implementation. In announcing the plan, Russia and Ukraine disagreed over what exactly they had agreed to in marathon 16-hour talks, including the status of a key town under rebel siege.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that the agreement envisages a cease-fire that will be effective starting from the start of the day Sunday (5 p.m. EST Saturday in the States) as well as a special status for the rebel regions, provisions on border controls and humanitarian issues.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said there was no agreement on any autonomy or federalization for eastern Ukraine, a longtime demand of Russia that wants it to maintain leverage over its neighbor and prevent it from ever joining NATO.
The deal, however, requires the Ukrainian parliament to give wide powers to the eastern regions as a condition for restoring Ukraine’s full control over the border — a provision that would be certain to trigger heated political debate in Ukraine.
The agreement is a complex compromise that allows both Russia and Ukraine to claim victory, but it’s full of potential pitfalls that may derail its implementation. Uncertainty remained even regarding the declared cease-fire, as Putin admitted that he and Poroshenko disagreed on assessing the situation in a key flashpoint, the government-held town of Debaltseve.
“We now have a glimmer of hope,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who brokered the talks in the Belarusian capital together with French President Francois Hollande. “But the concrete steps of course have to be taken, and we will still face major obstacles. But on balance I can say that we have achieved gives significantly more hope than if we had achieved nothing. So one can say that this initiative was worth it.”
More than 5,300 people have died since April in the fighting, which continued to rage Thursday even as the four leaders were engaged in talks.
The deal envisages a buffer zone to be created by pulling back the heavy artillery and rocket systems from 31 to 87 miles away from the frontline depending on their caliber. The withdrawal should begin no later than a second day after the cease-fire becomes effective and be completed within two weeks.
In a win for Ukraine, the rebel regions, which held their own elections last fall that Ukraine and the West declared a sham, are obliged to hold a new local vote under the Ukrainian law.
But in a key concession to Russia, the deal says the restoration of Ukrainian control over the border with Russia in rebel-controlled areas could be completed only by the end of 2015 on condition that Ukraine conducts a constitutional reform granting wide powers to the eastern regions, including the right to form their own police force and trade freely with Russia.
Speaking to reporters after the exhausting talks, Putin said “it was not the best night in my life, but the morning, I think, is good because we have managed to agree on the main things despite all the difficulties of the negotiations.”
Hollande said he and Merkel are committed to helping verify the cease-fire process in Ukraine, hailing the deal as a “relief to Europe.”
A previous cease-fire agreed in September fell apart as Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed rebels both tried to gain more ground.
“We came to an agreement, an agreement on a cease-fire and on a global political settlement of the Ukrainian conflict,” Hollande said. “That global settlement will include all issues, from the cease-fire to the control of the border, to decentralization, and, of course, the pullback of heavy weapons and resuming economic relations.”
Poroshenko stressed that the agreement contains “a clear commitment to withdraw all foreign troops, all mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine,” a reference to the soldiers and weapons that Ukraine and the West say Russia has sent into eastern Ukraine to back the rebels. Moscow has denied the accusations, saying Russians in eastern Ukraine were volunteers, but the sheer number of sophisticated heavy weapons in rebels’ possession belies the denial.
Merkel said that, at the end, Putin exerted pressure on the separatists to get them to agree to the cease-fire.
“I have no illusions, we have no illusions — a great, great deal of work is still necessary. But there is a real chance to make things better,” she said.
The French-German diplomatic dash came as President Barack Obama considered rising calls at home for sending U.S. lethal aid to Ukraine, a move that the European leaders fear would only widen hostilities.
The urgency felt by all sides appeared to be underlined by the extraordinary length and discomfort of the talks, which began Wednesday evening in the Belarusian capital and continued uninterrupted through the night as crowds of reporters waited anxiously in a marble-floored, chandeliered convention hall in Minsk. One was whisked away by doctors to be treated for exhaustion, according to the Interfax news agency.
While the four leaders hailed the agreement, it became immediately clear that Russia and Ukraine continued to disagree on how to end fighting around Debaltseve, a key transport hub between the two main rebel-controlled eastern cities.
Putin said that the rebels consider the Ukrainian forces surrounded and expect them to surrender, while Ukraine says its troops have not been blocked.
The Russian leader said that the peace deal also determines a division line from which heavy weapons will be pulled back.
The line of division and other key provisions were contained in a document endorsed by rebel chiefs and the representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. That agreement was endorsed by the four leaders, who issued a separate declaration.
“We were presented with various unacceptable conditions of withdrawal and surrender,” Poroshenko said. “We did not agree to any ultimatums and stated firmly that the cease-fire that is announced is unconditional.”
Rebel leaders lauded the agreement and said they’re willing to give Kiev another chance. “(We) give this chance to Ukraine to change its constitution, to change its attitude,” rebel leaders in Luhansk Igor Plotnitsky said on Russian television.
Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said he will lay the blame on Kiev if the cease-fire collapses and that there “will be no meetings and no new agreements.”
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US officials on Wednesday called for increased security measures to prevent violent extremism from spreading to US soil, noting specifically the need to combat ISIL's effective use of social...
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David Cameron branded the 'dodgy prime minister' in HSBC tax attackby Patrick Wintour, Nicholas Watt, Rajeev Syal and Juliette Garside
Ed Miliband makes accusation after PM refuses four times to say whether he discussed tax avoidance at HSBC with Stephen Green
David Cameron stood accused by Ed Miliband of acting as a “dodgy prime minister” after he repeatedly failed in the House of Commons to say whether he had discussed tax avoidance at HSBC with Stephen Green before appointing him as trade minister in 2011.
On a day when the Conservative party’s attitude to tax avoidance and Whitehall’s failure to probe HSBC’s complicity in tax avoidance moved right to the heart of the pre-election battle, Cameron four times refused to tell MPs if he ever discussed with the former HSBC chairman the evidence of tax evasion and avoidance at the bank’s Swiss subsidiary.
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On Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a joint press conference to declare solidarity in their approach to the conflict in Ukraine. “Russian aggression has only reinforced the unity between the United States, Germany and other European allies,” intoned Obama.
Would it were so. Russian aggression in Ukraine and the ongoing debate on how to respond have put serious strain on the transatlantic alliance, a problem that’s becoming harder to hide.
At the recent Munich Security Conference, the two sides tried to downplay their divisions.
U.S.Secretary of State John Kerry insisted that America and Europe differ over “tactics,” not strategy. But that’s not saying much. The two sides agree that Russia is the principal aggressor in a conflict that has killed more than 5,000 people and displaced 1.5 million more. They agree that Russia should give back Crimea and stop sending soldiers and weapons into the Donbass war zone. They agree that Russia must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and its right to join European clubs.
U.S.Secretary of State John Kerry insisted that America and Europe differ over “tactics,” not strategy. But that’s not saying much. The two sides agree that Russia is the principal aggressor in a conflict that has killed more than 5,000 people and displaced 1.5 million more. They agree that Russia should give back Crimea and stop sending soldiers and weapons into the Donbass war zone. They agree that Russia must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and its right to join European clubs.
But Russia has no intention of accepting any of those things, which makes “tactics” the whole ballgame. How to back
Vladimir Putin down? That’s the fundamental impasse between the
U.S. and Europe.
Vladimir Putin down? That’s the fundamental impasse between the
U.S. and Europe.
The question of the moment is whether to provide weapons to Ukraine. The Obama
Administration, Britain and Canada are considering it. Some in Washington, like Arizona Senator John McCain, are pushing hard for it. Germany, now the strongest voice in European foreign policy, flatly opposes the idea.
Administration, Britain and Canada are considering it. Some in Washington, like Arizona Senator John McCain, are pushing hard for it. Germany, now the strongest voice in European foreign policy, flatly opposes the idea.
This disagreement exposes a deeper conflict. The focal point of the
U.S. approach is not to defend Ukraine, but to punish Russia. Washington can shrug off the economic impact of cratering relations with Moscow: in 2013, Russia was America’s
23rd largest trading partner, accounting for just 1% of America’s total trade. But Russia accounted for nearly 10% of the E.U.’s total trade that year, making it the E.U.’s third largest trading partner. With many European countries economically dependent on Russian energy and its support for certain
sectors — banking, finance, agriculture and
others — topunish Russia is to punish Europe too.
U.S. approach is not to defend Ukraine, but to punish Russia. Washington can shrug off the economic impact of cratering relations with Moscow: in 2013, Russia was America’s
23rd largest trading partner, accounting for just 1% of America’s total trade. But Russia accounted for nearly 10% of the E.U.’s total trade that year, making it the E.U.’s third largest trading partner. With many European countries economically dependent on Russian energy and its support for certain
sectors — banking, finance, agriculture and
others — topunish Russia is to punish Europe too.
Obama appears reluctant to send weapons into Ukraine, but he does want to increase pressure onPutin. He fears that negotiations alone give
the Russian leader time to further destabilize and bankrupt Ukraine’s government, and that sanctions should be intensified. Europe has so far maintained existing sanctions, but there are too many European governments deeply reluctant to impose new ones. Why accept damage to their own economies when they don’t believe Putin will change course?
the Russian leader time to further destabilize and bankrupt Ukraine’s government, and that sanctions should be intensified. Europe has so far maintained existing sanctions, but there are too many European governments deeply reluctant to impose new ones. Why accept damage to their own economies when they don’t believe Putin will change course?
In reality, neither negotiations nor sanctions will back Putin down, at least not soon enough to save Kiev enormous cost and pain. But as the assault on Ukraine intensifies and demand to do somethingboils over, America and Europe will likely begin to pursue separate plans. That’s bad news for both.
As U.S.-E.U. solidarity on Russia tactics splinters, who is the big winner? It’s not Putin. His prize for unwavering aggression is a broken Ukraine, a broken relationship with the
West and a broken economy. Instead, it’s China that stands to gain. China disagrees with the broadest Western
assumption — the need for a strong international response to Russian aggression in the first place. As Russia turns East, China will drive a harder bargain in their commercial relations while taking care to ensure that relations with America and Europe continue to expand. The tactics of playing both sides will work very well for China.
West and a broken economy. Instead, it’s China that stands to gain. China disagrees with the broadest Western
assumption — the need for a strong international response to Russian aggression in the first place. As Russia turns East, China will drive a harder bargain in their commercial relations while taking care to ensure that relations with America and Europe continue to expand. The tactics of playing both sides will work very well for China.
And given the growing transatlantic divide, better relations with China might be more important than ever.
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Meeting in Minsk amid escalating conflict in eastern Ukraine, one telltale image shows Vladmir Putin (left) giving a smug smile while Petro Poroshenko (right) glares across the table him.
MINSK (Reuters) - The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Belarus on Wednesday, while in Ukraine pro-Moscow separatists tightened the pressure on Kiev by launching some of the war's worst fighting.
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William Schabas, who resigned last week, said his appointment to a United Nations inquiry into last summer’s Gaza conflict had been troubled from the outset.
Towers of Secrecy: At the Time Warner Center, an Enclave of Powerful Russians by By STEPHANIE SAUL and LOUISE STORY
Foreign money has fueled a billionaires row of residential buildings overlooking Central Park, including the Plaza, left, and the Time Warner Center in the background.
**WEB ONLY**\nEXCLUSIVE: *** PREMIUM RATES APPLY**\nBruce Jenner appears to be talking on his cell phone as he drives in Thousand Oaks, California.Photos taken 3:45pm on Tuesday.Talking on a cellphone while driving is illegal in California and the images come just days after he was involved in a car crash that left one person dead. The 65-year-old former Olympic champion has reportedly volunteered his cellphone information to police to prove he was not texting while driving ahead of that accident. Police investigating the crash are said to be looking into whether he was driving too closely to the car in front.\n \nRef: SPL947084 090215 EXCLUSIVE\nPicture by: Splash News\n\nSplash News and Pictures\nLos Angeles:310-821-2666\nNew York:212-619-2666\nLondon:870-934-2666\nphotodesk@splashnews.com\n
Two hours of wealth porn and endless chances to win a Fifty Shades mattress? Please, what’s the safe word?
What a time it is to be alive! For this week of all weeks is when anyone who has anything at all to promote, from duct tape to their own good selves, can attain international attention without recourse even to reality TV. All they need to do is somehow claim their self-promotion has something to do with Fifty Shades of Grey.
As even Trappist monks in South Korea know, this is the week that the film of EL James’s hilariously successful book is released. Truly, this would be the perfect Valentine’s Day date for couples who prefer to watch actors pretend to have sex rather than have actual sex themselves. Some of you, perhaps, have denied yourselves the pleasure of reading this delightful tale about what happened when a virginal college graduate, Anastasia Steele, met Christian Grey, a weirdo stalker with a fondness for Bruce Springsteen (“‘Gotta love Bruce,’ he grinned at me”) and fisting (“He smirked at me: ‘Your ass will need training.’”) Move over, Heathcliff – there’s a new romantic hero in town!
Batten down the hatches, B&Q, as your doors will be trampled down by sex-crazed hordes
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 Irish Independent |
2 missing after military jet crash
Irish Independent A Russian military jet has crashed while trying to land and the fate of its two crew member is unknown, the Defence Ministry said. Ads by Google. Share. Facebook · Twitter · Google · Email. Go To. Comments. A spokesman said the Su-24 bomber crashed as it ... Military jet crashes in southern Russia, 2 crewmen missingArizona Daily Star all 28 news articles » |
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An adviser and minister under former Romanian president Traian Basescu is being charged with fraud and laundering kickback money linked to government purchases of Microsoft software licences,...
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U.S. to Withdraw Nearly All Troops Fighting Ebolaby By MICHAEL D. SHEAR and JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS
President Obama said Wednesday that all but about 100 American military personnel serving in West Africa would be coming home.
Former International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn conceded Wednesday that his approach to sex is rougher than that of most men, as he took the stand for a second day in his trial in France on aggravated pimping charges.
Russian Troops Move To Border As Catastrophic Ukrainian Army Defeat Looms by The European Union Times
A new Ministry of Defense
(MoD) report circulating in the Kremlin today ahead of the “last chance” peace talks on the Ukrainian crisis, scheduled later today in the Belarusian capitol of Minsk, states that President Putin has ordered the 45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment and the 5th Tank Brigade to immediately deploy on the border as Ukraine forces are nearing a “catastrophic defeat” at the hands of separatist rebel forces.
(MoD) report circulating in the Kremlin today ahead of the “last chance” peace talks on the Ukrainian crisis, scheduled later today in the Belarusian capitol of Minsk, states that President Putin has ordered the 45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment and the 5th Tank Brigade to immediately deploy on the border as Ukraine forces are nearing a “catastrophic defeat” at the hands of separatist rebel forces.
The 5th Tank Brigade of the 36th Army of the Eastern Military Command, military unit 46108, this report notes, was permanently transferred from Eastern Siberia and the Far East to the Ukrainian border this past November, while about 2,000 Russian reconnaissance troops have, likewise, began large-scale exercises in the same area.
This report further notes that these military forces, in preparation and during conducting of combined-arms operations (combat actions), have been ordered to perform the following tasks:
• disclosure of the enemy’s intention, its immediate preparations for aggression, and its surprise attack prevention;• identifying the troops (forces) of the enemy and its control system’s combat structure, position, grouping, status and capabilities;• disclosure of the objects (targets) for defeating and determination of their location (coordinates);• disclosure of the elements of the war theatre’s operational equipment, the terrains’ engineering equipment and the system of barriers;• determination of the degree of terrain’s passability, the state of communications, the nature of water barriers, the boundaries and the dimensions of areas of destruction, fires and floods, contamination areas, possible ways of overcoming them and turning movement around them;• identifying the enemy’s new weapons and methods of warfare, as well as its activities to ensure full operation (battle);• determination of the morale of the enemy’s troops and the local population, the economic status of the operation’s area, etc.
The need for the immediate deployment of these forces, this report continues, is due to the catastrophic defeat looming for the vast majority of what’s left of the Ukrainian army that has been surrounded by rebel forces in the city of
Debaltseve, described as the most vital railhead in eastern Ukraine.
Debaltseve, described as the most vital railhead in eastern Ukraine.
To how grave the situation is, this report says, was articulated yesterday by Semen Semenchenko, a Ukrainian legislator and field commander, and who wrote on Facebook that rebel forces had cut off the road between the railroad junction of Debaltseve and the Ukrainian-controlled town of Artemivsk.
“Strategists, damn it!” Semenchenko fumed at Ukrainian military commanders while this news meant that several thousand Ukrainian troops were effectively trapped near Debaltseve, creating the potential for a major Ukrainian defeat. Semenchenko further called the defense ministry spokesmen disputing this fact “fairy tale writers in shoulder
To prove his point, he reminded American warmongers that US weapons did little to prevent the collapse of the Iraqi Army at the hands of ISIS. “What the recommendation really is doing is slow-walking the United States into a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine,” he said. “And this fundamentally will prove disastrous for Ukraine, as it proved for Afghanistan, as it proved for every single country that hosted a proxy war between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.”
Of particularly grave concern to Putin in ordering this troop deployment, MoD experts in this report state, were reports that Ukraine’s Azov volunteer regiment — a unit run, and partly staffed, with extreme right activists and sporting the Nazi Wolfsangel on its insignia — reported, also onFacebook, that it had attacked the pro-Russian rebel forces near the port city of Mariupol, seizing control of several villages. The government in Kiev, in shamelessly backing these Nazi forces backed up the report enthusiastically.
Most critical of Putin’s worries regarding Ukraine, however, this report says, was Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko earlier today vowing to impose martial law should the Minsk talks fail.
MoD experts in this report note that the establishment of martial law in Ukraine is intended as a “diabolical measure” to force the Ukrainian people to fight in this war, and who have by the hundreds of thousands been fleeing their country so as not to have to kill their fellow countrymen.
As reported by various media sources, this report continues, almost no one is coming voluntarily to the military recruitment offices in this fourth, latest round of conscription is causing panic in the government and top army command of Ukraine.
Men of conscription age are fleeing in the thousands, crossing Ukraine’s borders in all directions, or taking cover internally, to escape the clutches of the military recruiters. President Poroshenko has been obliged to order that, henceforth, only those men of military age with papers confirming they are duly registered with their military registration office will be permitted to leave the country.
The plain truth is, these media reports further document, is that the Ukrainian people don’t want to die for the current government which they view as composed of extreme nationalists and neoliberals. They are, also, unwilling to be cannon fodder dying for the interests of Ukrainian oligarchs whose only apparent interest is to pursue a civil war, siphon Western financial aid and suppress opposition to their rule.
Even more grimly for these Ukrainian people, MoD experts in this report say, are new laws passed in Ukraine allowing their military to shoot deserters, the jailing of all journalists opposed to war who are then being charged with treason, and the paying of bounties to kill rebel forces and destroyequipment.
And, this report grimly warns, as one of President Putin’s top advisors, Dmitry Kiselev, has alreadywarned the west that Russia’s military doctrine allows nuclear strikes when the state is under threat, even in a conflict where only conventional weapons are in use, the statement today by Ukrainian President Poroshenko that the situation will go “out of control” if there is no de-escalation or ceasefire deal reached in Minsk means “total war” is now a viable option to end this crisis.
As French President Hollande warned today that the Minsk talks are the last chance to avoid “totalwar”, and Russia has previously warned the US that delivery of arms to Ukraine would be viewed as an act of war against the Federation, this report concludes, President Obama called Putin yesterday to threaten American action against Russia over Ukraine and then gave an interview where he stated“We have to twist arms when countries don’t do what we need them to.”
To if the lunatics running America, and who are backing the equally insane government of Ukraine, remember that Putin pointedly noted last August that Russia was a leading nuclear power and advised potential enemies “it’s best not to mess with us” this report doesn’t note, but to if he was telling the truth we’re all about to see for real….and, also, what “total war” really looks like.
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Ukraine's PM: IMF Aid Accord Within Reachby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
Ukraine and a team from the International Monetary Fund could reach an agreement on further financial aid for the country's war-battered economy in the next 48 hours, even though talks are proving tough, its prime minister said Wednesday. The ex-Soviet republic, which is on the brink of bankruptcy after a year of political upheaval and war, is in talks with a visiting IMF team that it hopes will lead to a bigger, longer-term funding plan than its current $17 billion program. Prime...
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Marking the 1979's Islamic revolution anniversary, President Hassan Rouhani said the world needs Iran to help stabilise the Middle East, also pointing to the wider ramifications of a deal over...
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From: AFP news agency
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NATO military planes take part in a training mission over Lithuania as part of the Baltic air-policing mission based in Siauliai. Duration: 00:58.
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From: AFP news agency
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Francesco Schettino, the captain of the Costa Concordia cruise ship when it crashed into rocks off Gigilo island, Italy, in 2012 killing 32 people, has been sentenced to 16 years in jail.
Russian Citizen Accused Of Spying By The U.S. Pleads Not Guilty by noreply@rferl.org (RFE/RL)
A Russian citizen accused of being part of a spy ring while working as a banker in New York City pleaded not guilty on February 11.
After a Polish official proposes moving Victory Day celebrations from Moscow, a national Russian television network describes the ease with which the Russian military could descend on European capitals.
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