U.S. Joins Europe in Effort to End Fighting in Ukraine - NYT
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KIEV, Ukraine — With the White House weighing whether to send arms to Ukraine, Western nations intensified efforts Thursday to bring an end to the fighting.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and President François Hollande of France are traveling to Kiev on Thursday to hold talks with President Petro O. Poroschenko of Ukraine, officials from the two countries said. On Friday, the French and German leaders are to continue to Moscow, where they are to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
Mr. Hollande said that he and Ms. Merkel would present a new initiative to end the fighting and guarantee the “full territorial integrity” of Ukraine.
The German and French moves were announced as Secretary of State John Kerry arrived here for high level talks. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. prepared for parallel consultations on Friday with European leaders in Brussels.
The accelerated Western diplomatic efforts came as the Obama administration was considering whether to send anti-tank missiles, battlefield radars, reconnaissance drones and other arms to help Ukaine’s beleaguered forces stave off attacks by the Russian-backed separatists and build pressure on Moscow to seek a political settlement.
The challenge is to restore a peace agreement that was hammered out in Belarus in September but has been repeatedly violated since then, more seriously by separatists and Russia.
Russia has funneled tanks, rockets and other heavy weapons to the separatists in eastern Ukraine, and has sent about 1,000 of its own troops there to help the separatists with their offensive, according to NATO estimates.
Since the accord was signed in Minsk, the Russian-backed separatists have taken control of about 200 square miles, including the airport at Donetsk, and they are currently threatening Debaltseve, a town that sits astride a critical rail hub.
The assessment of some senior Western officials is that Mr. Putin is trying to supplant the Minsk agreement with a new arrangement that would expand the Kremlin’s influence over Ukraine and would give the separatists a larger, and more economically viable, enclave.
Mr. Kerry, who will announce $16.4 million in humanitarian assistance to help people in eastern Ukraine, plans to press for a new cease-fire.
The Obama administration’s hope is that its widely reported deliberations over whether to send defensive weapons to Ukraine and about consideration of additional economic sanctions will be sufficient to induce the Russians to agree to a halt in the fighting and, ultimately, to a political agreement within the framework of the Minsk accord.
But Mr. Kerry and Mr. Biden will also be consulting with European leaders about ways to increase the pressure on the Kremlin in the absence of a political resolution. Ms. Merkel plans to go to Washington on Monday, and Mr. Obama could decide on whether to send defensive lethal aid soon after.
“We’ve got to test that now as the talk of pressure increases in the United States, in Europe," a senior State Department official said, referring to the effort to restore a cease-fire.
“We have a Russian government that is talking the talk of cease-fire, talking the talk of peace, even as it fuels this conflict,” said the official who could not be identified under the agency’s protocol for briefing reporters.
“So the question is: If the governments of Ukraine, of the United States, of Europe are appealing now for a new sit-down, will the Kremlin spurn that or will they sit down? And will they push their proxies to do the same?”
Mr. Hollande said France did not favor Ukraine’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but he also said that France will not participate in the debate on whether to provide weapons to Ukraine.
“It will not be said that France and Germany together have not tried everything, undertaken everything to preserve the peace,” he said.
During his visit to Kiev, Mr. Kerry plans to meet Mr. Poroshenko, Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin.
Mr. Biden will be meeting on Friday in Brussels with Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, and other senior European leaders.
Mr. Kerry and Mr. Biden will then meet up in Munich, where a security conference is being held, for a joint meeting with Ms. Merkel and Mr. Poroshenko. Mr. Kerry also plans to meet separately there with Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister.
“We do have three different issue areas in play,” a senior administration official said on Wednesday, discussing Mr. Biden’s trip. “One is the potential to increase the costs to Russia through economic measures. The second is to make sure that Ukraine has the financial support it needs moving forward. And the third is to enhance Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and thereby give the Russians and the separatists a greater incentive to negotiate an end to the conflict.”
Russia's support for the separatists far outstrips the assistance the United States and European nations have provided to Ukraine.
The Russians have sent modern T-80 tanks, whose armor cannot be penetrated by Ukraine's aging and largely inoperative anti-tank weapons, along with Grad rockets and other heavy weapons. Russian forces have also used electronic jamming equipment to interfere with the Ukrainians communications.
In contrast, the Obama administration has promised about $118 million for training and nonlethal equipment for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, State Border Guard Service and National Guard. But only half of that aid actually been delivered, State Department officials acknowledge.
The United States is also preparing plans for $120 million in additional training and equipment.
Ukraine has submitted a long request for arms and equipment, including ammunition, sniper rifles, mortars, grenade launchers, anti-tank missiles, armored personnel carriers, mobile field hospitals, counterbattery radars and reconnaissance drones.
The Russians have a history of advancing negotiating proposals that contain enough hints of flexibility, along with their demands, to undermine the push for tougher sanctions in Europe.
The $16.4 million in aid that Mr. Kerry will announce in Kiev is intended to help people trapped by the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk. The aid will be used to buy basic items like blankets and clothing, along with counseling for traumatized civilians and to help those who have fled the fighting.
The funds will support the work by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees and other international organizations. Including the $16.4 million, the United States’ humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the crisis began is more than $38 million, the State Department said.
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French and German leaders will make new proposals for peace in Ukraine in a joint visit to Kiev today and Moscow tomorrow.
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A Baku court has jailed two Azerbaijani men for spying for Iran.
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Kerry holds talks with Poroshenko as west seeks fresh diplomatic solution
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A Kyrgyz group has rallied in Bishkek protesting what they call "pedophilia, homosexuals," and NGOs that support gay rights.
Hollande and Merkel to fly to Kiev in new effort to resolve Ukraine crisis by Shaun Walker in Kiev and agencies
Flurry of diplomatic activity as US secretary of state John Kerry arrives in
Ukraine’s capital
Ukraine’s capital
French president François Hollande and the German chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Kiev on Thursday and Moscow on Friday for talks to make a new proposal to solve the Ukraine crisis.
“Together with Angela Merkel we have decided to take a new initiative,” Hollande told a news conference. “We will make a new proposal to solve the conflict which will be based on Ukraine’s territorial integrity.”
Continue reading...
More than six in 10 Russians want eastern Ukraine to break away from the Kiev-controlled part of the country, a new poll has shown, with support for separatism having grown in a matter of weeks.
The majority of injured separatist fighters from eastern Ukraine are treated in Russia. But their treatment is not always organized officially. In the border regions of Russia, there are informal clinics and rehabilitation centers organized by the separatists. RFE/RL’s Current Time reports from one such center, in the city of Azov. (www.currenttime.tv)
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Aspiring poet Sergei Lavrov, who happens also to be Russia's foreign minister, released a series of poems Wednesday on the theme of emigration and the impossibility of ever truly leaving Russia behind.
There are Alternatives to Putin and Not All of Them are in the Kremlin, Satarov Says by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, February 4 – In any political system, there is always “an alternative” to the current leader, Georgy Satarov says, and consequently, when Vladimir Putin leaves his position, a new head of Russia will emerge -- and it won’t necessarily be someone from the current Kremlin entourage or happen peacefully.
But it is “another matter” entirely to describe how that individual will emerge, the former Yeltsin advisor says in an interview with Liga.net. “Under Putin, a legitimate change of power appears problematic.” Problematic, however, doesn’t mean “impossible,” he insists. It could even involve a revolution (news.liga.net/interview/politics/4968593-sovetnik_eltsina_putinskomu_rezhimu_ostalos_menshe_polutora_let.htm).
Satarov says that he does not exclude that possibility although doesn’t see it happening soon. For it to occur, sanctions would have to be in place for long enough to lead to deficits, unemployment, and an increase in crime. Add to that “caskets coming back from the Donbas,” and “social protest will inevitably grow. When it takes on political form, everything is possible.”
And the form it will take will come from leaders who arise in the course of the growth of social protest rather than from people in the Duma. It could even come from within Putin’s entourage, many of whose members are unhappy with things as they are but who are generally “unprepared for action” although they would accept a new leader with alacrity.
According to Satarov, sanctions are hitting Russia hard because its economy was too focused on oil and gas exports, because it lacks the resources to overcome the financial situation it faces, and especially because the way out of its current dilemma “lies not in the sphere of economics but in the area of reforms of legal and political institutions.”
Moscow is running out of time, he continues. The “most optimistic” forecasts predict a collapse by mid-2016, but Satarov says that he thinks things will come much sooner, the result of a combination of the impact of sanctions and increased military spending which Russia cannot afford.
Those who think sanctions are not playing a role are wrong; they simply expect them to work more quickly than they can. Sanctions, Satarov points out, “work step by step,” but even now they are creating real problems for Moscow and the Russian population and those problems will only grow in the coming months.
Polls showing Putin with 85 percent support are inaccurate, he continues. At most 15 percent really support him. The remainder consists “simply of conformists.” They supported past leaders for that reason, and they will support any future one as well. Only a miniscule part of the population is politically active and will cause change.
With regard to the war in Ukraine, Satarov says that Putin bears “direct and maximum” responsibility for the conflict. “This is his war.” But he says he “completely excludes” the possibility that Putin would attack the Baltic countries or other European states. The very idea of that is “laughable” because Moscow does not have the resources to do so.
In Ukraine, Putin will try to keep the situation at a low boil so as to create “controlled chaos” and keep Kyiv and the West off balance. He cannot retreat, but “he hasn’t been able to seize the east of Ukraine” completely and wouldn’t be able to take more if he tried. And it must be remembered that Crimea is Ukrainian territory, whatever Putin says.
Satarov said that he has “no doubt” that the current government in Kyiv is legitimate, and he says he is watching “with enormous sympathy” as it is forced to deal with an enormous range of complex problems. And he says that eventually, after Putin, it may be possible for Ukrainians and Russians to have a rapprochement but that this will require several decades.
Asked whether Putin’s regime is a form of fascism, Satarov says that this is “of course, not the case. A fascist regime is above all an ideological regime, and Putin’s Russia has no ideology.” Its notions of a Russian world and sovereignty democracy are simply playing at ideology for television viewers.
For a regime to be said to have an ideology, that set of ideas must “in the first instance” penetrate and be accepted by the elite. “The Putin elite in Russia doesn’t believe in ‘a Russian world;’ they are too pragmatic and mercantile comrades for that.” Consequently, what exists in Russia is not fascism but rather something else.
Satarov says that he can best describe it as “a plebiscite-based dictatorship with an admixture of extreme kleptocracy” one which uses “the appearance of democratic procedures” but allows for no real choice as the basis for “the quasi-legitimation of the regime. With quasi-elections, quasi-polls, and quasi-freedom of speech.”
Fascism, were it to come, Satarov concludes, would “shamelessly get rid of all of this, but a dictator who bases his power on plebiscites needs to create the appearance of democratic procedures.”
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As Russia’s economy enters recession and its political stability starts to weaken, there is increasing speculation about the possibility of a regime change in the country. Donald N. Jensen, resident fellow of the Center for Transatlantic Relations, discusses Russia’s political climate and the options currently confronting Vladimir Putin.
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Europa partnership of newspapers questions Joe Bidenby Europa: Le Monde, the Guardian, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El País, la Stampa, Gazeta Wyborcza
US vice-president responds to questions on conflict in Ukraine, relations with Russia and Islamic State in a written interview
Europa partners: The war in eastern Ukraine is reigniting with great ferocity. President Obama has said the US is ready to “ratchet up the pressure” on Russia. What does that mean concretely? Should embargoes be tightened further? Can the main burden in negotiating remain with Germany? Would the US support an application by Ukraine for Nato membership?
Joe Biden: I agree that we are now seeing an escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. Let me be perfectly clear about the cause of this escalation: from the start, this conflict has been directly caused by Russian aggression. Many of the separatists who are fighting in eastern Ukraine were recruited in Russia, they received and continue to receive heavy military equipment – including tanks and rocket launchers – from Russia, they have been trained in Russia, and they get direct financial assistance from the Russian government. In addition, Russian combat forces with Russian weapons and Russian tanks have crossed the border into Ukraine and have directly aided the separatists who are today fighting Ukrainian forces and shelling civilians in cities like Mariupol and Debaltseve.
Continue reading...From Islamism to Putin, Europe faces new threats – but can it unite to fight?by Sylvie Kauffmann in Paris and Stefan Kornelius in Munich
The continent is spending less on security and many countries are unwilling or unable to deploy forces abroad
“Every significant war,” says Jean-Marie Guéhenno, “would probably now begin with an internet attack.” A former UN under-secretary general, Guéhenno is now president of the International Crisis Group and in 2012 he was asked by the French government to coordinate a new defence white paper. That he considers cyberspace to be a battlefield speaks volumes about the changing nature of European security in the 21st century.
Twenty-five years after the cold war the continent is confronted by an array of new threats. Cyber-attacks; Vladimir Putin’s perplexing military strategy; Islamist terror. And the threats to Europe are forming on unstable terrain east and south of its borders, where state structures are either weak or disintegrating. There, the boundary between war and peace is blurred; “frozen conflicts” is a synonym for wars without end.
Related: What are Europeans afraid of most?
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The stomping incident was captured on camera on 23 July, less than one week after Eric Garner died from being placed in a chokehold – also caught on camera – by an NYPD officer who was not indicted.
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Argentinian prosecutor drafted arrest warrant for president before he died
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Armenia Asks Russia To Hand Over Massacre Suspectby noreply@rferl.org (RFE/RL's Armenian Service)
Armenia has formally asked Russia to hand over a soldier charged with killing seven members of a single family near Russia's military base in the South Caucasus nation.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to travel to Egypt on February 9-10 to discuss bilateral ties and regional issues in the Middle East.
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For years, Russian economists have been emphasizing the need to diversify Russia's energy export economy to better absorb shocks such as the current drop in world oil prices and Western sanctions.
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A draft of the arrest warrant was found in the apartment of Alberto Nisman, whose mysterious death has gripped Argentina.
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Rupert Murdoch’s supporter, Prince Al Waleed bin Talal, reduces holding
from 5% to 1%
from 5% to 1%
The Saudi Arabian billionaire, Prince Al Waleed bin Talal, has sold a substantial stake in Rupert Murdoch’s publishing company, News Corp, reports Bloomberg.
His investment firm, Kingdom Holdings, announced to the Saudi stock exchange that it had cut its ownership in News Corp from 6.6% (13m shares) to about 1% (2m shares), netting some $190m (£125m) in the process.
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Former Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky has described prominent Kremlin foe Aleksei Navalny as his "ally for the medium term."
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The head of the Russian Federation Council says legislation will be adopted during the spring that retroactively proclaims the Soviet Union's 1954 transfer of Crimea to Ukraine as "legally void and nonbinding" from the moment the transfer was enacted.
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An Islamic State commander and a number of his escorts have reportedly been killed in a coalition air strike on the road to Akashat in Iraq's northwestern Anbar Province.
Ukraine calls for further military and financial supportby Shaun Walker in Kiev
Kiev looks to IMF and US for
economic and military assistance as conflict-hit country teeters on brink of economic collapse
economic and military assistance as conflict-hit country teeters on brink of economic collapse
Ukraine is asking the international community to provide more military and financial
support as theUS secretary of
state, John Kerry, flies into Kiev on Thursday. A team from the International Monetary Fund is also in
the capital as Ukraine attempts to negotiate a bailout to avert economic
collapse. The talks with the US will touch on military support.
support as theUS secretary of
state, John Kerry, flies into Kiev on Thursday. A team from the International Monetary Fund is also in
the capital as Ukraine attempts to negotiate a bailout to avert economic
collapse. The talks with the US will touch on military support.
The foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin, told a group of western journalists on Wednesday that negotiations with the IMF were “difficult but constructive”, and that there was hope that a package would be agreed soon.
The west has to bite the bullet and decide it has to be now or never
Continue reading...
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Russian “Shock Of March” Battle Plan Targets Norway, Saudi Arabia by The European Union Times
A truly grim Ministry of Defence
(MoD) report circulating in the Kremlin today gives stark validity to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moving their Doomsday Clock to
“3 minutes to midnight” on 30 January as it details what its authors label as a “Shock Of March” battle plan to simultaneously attack both Norway and Saudi Arabia while at the same time holding the European Union-United States at bay under threat of a massive nuclear attack.
(MoD) report circulating in the Kremlin today gives stark validity to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moving their Doomsday Clock to
“3 minutes to midnight” on 30 January as it details what its authors label as a “Shock Of March” battle plan to simultaneously attack both Norway and Saudi Arabia while at the same time holding the European Union-United States at bay under threat of a massive nuclear attack.
According to this report, the massive nuclear missile drills previously scheduled in the Central Military District
(CMD) for early March are to act as “cover” for the launching of at least 10 electromagnetic pulse
(EMP) armed Iskander-M tactical ballistic cruise missiles at “previously selected targets” to include central Norway and the Ju Aymah oil terminal complex in Saudi Arabia.
(CMD) for early March are to act as “cover” for the launching of at least 10 electromagnetic pulse
(EMP) armed Iskander-M tactical ballistic cruise missiles at “previously selected targets” to include central Norway and the Ju Aymah oil terminal complex in Saudi Arabia.
The criteria necessary for these targeting “options”, this report says, includes the necessity of crippling Saudi Arabia’s ability to ship oil from its Ju Aymah oil complex (one of the largest in theworld) while at the same time denying the US the ability to access the massive amounts of new tanks and armored vehicles they have placed over the past year in a series of climate-controlled caves in central Norway.
In preparation for this “Shock of March” battle plan, this report continues, the MoD this week has alsobegun large-scale exercises of Russian radiation, chemical, and biological defense troops on seven firing ranges in the Southern Military District
(SMD), as well as the Crimean Peninsula and Armenia.
(SMD), as well as the Crimean Peninsula and Armenia.
The “strategic platforms” to be utilized in these attacks, MoD experts in this report state, will be theCaspian Flotilla which will attack Saudi Arabia with Iskander EMP cruise missiles and then IskanderNorthern Fleet based EMP cruise missiles are to be fired into central and northern Norway.
Upon the successful crippling of Norway’s military/industrial/civilian electronic and telecommunications infrastructure, this report says, special forces
(Spetsnaz) troops that have beenbuilding up in the Murmansk Oblast will then cross the border between the two nations to both secure vital airfields and destroy all of the stored American war supplies found there, after which they will leave Norwegian territory when a negotiated settlement to end hostilities is reached.
(Spetsnaz) troops that have beenbuilding up in the Murmansk Oblast will then cross the border between the two nations to both secure vital airfields and destroy all of the stored American war supplies found there, after which they will leave Norwegian territory when a negotiated settlement to end hostilities is reached.
The legal authorization for attacking Saudi Arabia, MoD experts in this report say, is based upon the Kingdoms “act of economic warfare against the Federation” in flooding the world with oil in order to collapse the Russian economy, a fact even the Obama regime linked New York Times was forced to admit this past week.
Likewise, these MoD experts in this report state, the legal authorization for attacking US/NATO ally Norway is based upon the United States declaration of war authorized by House Resolution 788 this past December and supported by the Obama regime.
In order to prevent this “Shock of March” battle plan from triggering an all-out nuclear war, this report continues, all EU/NATO nations will be immediately notified that should they in any way retaliate against Federation forces a full scale attack utilizing Iskander EMP ballistic missiles will be launched against them from the Kaliningrad Oblast, and which are able to target all EU military targets in less than 15 minutes.
Important to note, this report says, is that in their knowledge of this conflict to come, both Germanyand France have announced they will not send weapons to Ukraine, with the Germans going further and stating publically that have cut off all arms sales to Saudi Arabia too.
Most dangerous, however, this report continues, remains the United States, and that MoD experts grimly note may not even be under the control of President Obama anymore.
Supporting this MoD statement, this report notes, are the new documents and tapes released in Washington D.C. this past week detailing how former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton personally directed the destruction of the Libyan government over the objections of both the Obama regime and the Pentagon.
Even worse, this report warns, is that should Hillary Clinton actually be in charge of the US government, she is acting in the capacity of a “wounded eagle” after her son-in-law, Marc Mezvinsky,is reported to have lost, to date, over $200 million of the Clinton families personal fortune by betting the wrong way on Greek government bonds.
And so bad has the situation in Greece become, this report notes, UK Chancellor George Osbornewarned yesterday that Greece’s standoff with Eurozone governments and international creditors poses a greater threat to the global economy than conflict in the Middle East, climate change and rising tensions between Russia and the West.
With Greece now refusing to even negotiate with its creditors before its 28 February deadline before it defaults, and with President Putin, likewise, nearing a decision to call in the Federations $3 billion loan to Ukraine which will cause that nation to default in March too, this MoD report concludes, it is no surprise that China’s top rating agency, Dagong, warned this week that the world is heading for a financial crisis worse than in 2008… and which the “Shock of March” battle plan was designed for in order to protect the Federation.
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Ukrainian military forces are helping civilians evacuate the town of Debaltseve, which has been hit by heavy shelling amid ongoing clashes. Servicemen also brought in supplies of bread for residents who were unable or unwilling to leave. Officers said they were attempting to establish a safe corridor to facilitate travel in and out of the embattled town. (Produced by RFE/RL's Current Time TV program)
Argentine president criticised for racial joke during trip to China
British law-enforcement officials accessed data concerning journalists and their sources more than 600 times during a three-year period, as part of a probe into possible criminal wrongdoing by public officials.
Investigators comb for clues after six killed in New York commuter train crashby Jessica Glenza in White Plains, New York and agencies
Fifteen people remain hospitalised in deadliest accident in Metro-North railroad’s history, which happened after train collided with SUV that drove onto tracks
National Transportation Safety Board investigators were at the scene of a Metro-North railroad crash on Wednesday, combing the icy wreckage of an SUV and a charred-out rail car for clues to what lead to their deadly collision the night before.
“We don’t have a lot of hard facts we would like to give you,” NTSB board member Robert Sumwalt told reporters at a press briefing late Wednesday morning in front of the scene, where the wreckage remained on the Harlem Line tracks after the train hit the stalled vehicle at a crossing in Valhalla, New York.
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Ukraine’s president suggested the West is close to sending arms to Kiev to help fight off pro-Russia rebels, as the capital prepares for a visit by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
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