At Least 10 Afghan Police Officers Killed in Taliban Assault
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KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — Taliban insurgents attacked police checkpoints Sunday in volatile southern Afghanistan, killing at least 10 officers in the ongoing assault, authorities said.
Mohammad Ismail Hotaki, the director of Helmand province's Joint Coordination Office, said that Taliban fighters attacked 10 police checkpoints in the province's Sangin district. Hotaki said Taliban fighters captured three checkpoints and continued to surge forward in their assault.
Hotaki said the violence killed at least 10 officers and wounded 16. Later, Sangin's deputy police chief, Haji Bari, said authorities recovered the corpses of at least 13 slain police officers, while 15 had been wounded. Such contradictory casualty figures are common amid an ongoing attack.
"We are in control of 80 percent of the checkpoints and are currently fighting with Taliban at two checkpoints," Bari said. "The Taliban numbers are high and they are attacking with full force. This level of force shows they are in a strong position to fight back."
Afghan security forces have been battling the Taliban in Helmand province for almost three months after launching an operation aimed at showing their strength ahead of the insurgents' annual warm weather offensive. Since that offensive began April 24, the Taliban have launched a number of attacks across many parts of Afghanistan.
Police checkpoints are regular targets as they are often poorly manned and vulnerable. The high number of casualties suffered by police, who often bear the brunt of the fight against the Taliban without the same resources as the army, has damaged morale and created an impression of battlefield domination by the Taliban.
The offensive comes as NATO and U.S. troops ended their combat mission in the country at the end of last year, leaving the responsibility for the fight against the Taliban solely on the shoulders of local Afghan forces.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The Islamic State extremist group claimed responsibility Friday for a suicide bombing during midday prayer at a Shiite mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Health Ministry said at least 21 people had been killed and more than 120 others injured.
It appeared to be the first official claim of an attack inside the kingdom by the Islamic State, which has seized control of much of Syria and Iraq.
The group attributed the attack to a new unit, the Najd Province, named for the central region of Saudi Arabia around Riyadh. But it was unclear whether the attack was planned by Islamic State leaders, initiated independently by a Saudi sympathizer, or merely claimed opportunistically after the fact.
The attack was a sign that Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the sectarian conflict in Yemen may be escalating tensions at home. Members of the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia, who make up about 15 percent of the population and live mainly in the Eastern Province, have long complained of insults and discrimination by Saudi Arabia’s Sunni majority and its clerical establishment.
During Saudi Arabia’s two-month air campaign against the Houthi movement in Yemen, which practices a form of Shiite Islam and receives backing from Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, Iran, imams at Sunni mosques and commentators in the Saudi news media have frequently rallied the public around the war by denouncing Shiites as dangerous infidels.
The Saudi news media has portrayed the Houthis as proxies of Shiite-led Iran and characterized the Yemen campaign as a vital defense against an Iranian incursion.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s participation in the American-led military campaign in Iraq and Syria against the Sunni extremists of the Islamic State has raised fears of a backlash from its sympathizers at home. Thousands of Saudis have traveled to join the Islamic State, which follows a puritanical school of Islam that scholars say is similar to that of Saudi Arabia.
Leaders of the Islamic State have called with increasing vehemence for their supporters to carry out attacks in the kingdom, accusing its leaders of hypocrisy. Saudi Arabia’s leaders and clerics deny any similarity between their understanding of Islam and that of the Islamic State.
Maj. Gen. Mansour al-Turki, a spokesman for the Saudi Interior Ministry, said in an interview Friday night that investigators were examining DNA samples and other evidence to establish the identity of the bomber.
General Turki said Saudi officials had blamed the Islamic State for an attack on Shiites in the same area last fall, although the group did not claim responsibility. Saudi Arabia also announced last month that it had arrested 65 people accused of “forming a terrorist organization related to ISIS, and their goal was to carry out terrorist attacks and enflame sectarian conflict,” the general said. A group of Islamic State supporters released a video late last year that they said showed the group’s fighters killing a Danish man, Thomas Hoepner, who was shot while driving in Riyadh. The claim did not appear to come from the Islamic State’s leaders.
But sectarian violence has been a longstanding issue in the Eastern Province, which contains much of the country’s oil but lags far behind other regions in economic development. Six months ago, gunmen killed eight people in the Shiite village of Dalwa, in the Ahsa region of the Eastern Province, at the end of the Shiite holiday of Ashura.
The bombing on Friday took place in the town of Al Qudaih, near Qatif, the regional center. The area has been the site of sectarian tensions and of calls for democratic reform in the aftermath of the Arab Spring revolts four years ago, including sporadic, Shiite-dominated street protests.
Saudi Arabia, in response, has jailed at least two prominent Shiite clerics who have called for political overhauls such as adopting a constitutional monarchy. Last year, one firebrand cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, was sentenced to death for his role in leading street protests in Qatif, and his sentence set off new protests around the region.
In what appeared to be an attempt to tamp down tensions after the attack on Friday, state television broadcast a telephone call from Saudi Arabia’s senior religious authority, the grand mufti, Abdulaziz al-Asheikh, who called the attack a “painful” and “criminal” act against the “sons of the homeland.”
But on social media, some Saudis rushed to blame Iran for the bombing, asserting that it might have been carried out to provoke Shiites in Saudi Arabia to turn against the kingdom.
“Iran won’t hesitate in scarifying Shia, to create a war between Sunni and Shia,” Luftallah Khoja, a prominent Saudi religious scholar, said in a Twitter message. He blamed Iran for creating the Islamic State, as well.
A number of Saudis said they were refusing to donate blood for Shiites who were injured in the bombing. “I wish to donate, but I am afraid I would donate and a Shia would take it, and he does not deserve even my spit,” one Saudi posted online. “You donate to infidels?” another wrote.
Jafar al-Shayeb, head of the Qatif Municipal Council and a Shiite community leader, blamed the “sectarian discourse” that has spread through Saudi Arabia since the start of the air campaign in Yemen. “People feel like this is a direct result of the atmosphere that is turning everybody against each other through speeches and media and social media,” he said. “It will lead young people to sacrifice themselves and kill others in this region, and people are very angry about it.”
Frederic Wehrey, an analyst who follows Saudi Arabia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the tension might persist even after the Yemen campaign. “Sectarianism, once you have unleashed it, you can’t bottle back it up,” he said. “It afflicts people every day.”
Correction: May 22, 2015
Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article referred imprecisely to the number of people killed in an attack in the Shiite village of Dalwa six months ago. Although five were killed initially, three others later died of their wounds.
Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article referred imprecisely to the number of people killed in an attack in the Shiite village of Dalwa six months ago. Although five were killed initially, three others later died of their wounds.
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RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The Saudi Interior Ministry on Saturday said that a Saudi man taking direction from the Islamic State had carried out a deadly suicide bombing a day earlier, bolstering the group’s claim of responsibility.
The ministry’s conclusion added to the sense of alarm that the group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, might be extending its reach inside the kingdom, which has so far largely escaped the violence engulfing Iraq and Syria.
The suicide bombing on Friday killed at least 21 worshipers at a Shiite mosque in a town near Qatif, in the Eastern Province. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack in an official statement, the first time its leadership had claimed responsibility for such an attack inside the kingdom.
The Interior Ministry, however, has blamed the Islamic State for previous attacks, and last fall supporters of the group released a video claiming responsibility for shooting a Danish executive in his car in Riyadh, the capital.
The ministry said in a statement on Saturday that after examining human remains found at the site of the Qatif attack, it had identified the suicide bomber as Salih bin Abdulrahman Salih al-Ghishaami, a Saudi citizen.
The ministry said he had been wanted for arrest as a member of a terrorist organization that took its instructions from the Islamic State. Twenty-six other Saudi members of the same organization have already been arrested, the ministry said. Five of those, the ministry said, had participated in a recent attack on Saudi security forces near Riyadh that led to the death of a soldier.
Ministry officials have also blamed the Islamic State for a shooting last November that killed at least eight people in another Shiite village in the Eastern Province. But the Islamic State has not claimed responsibility for that attack, or for the killing of the soldier.
WASHINGTON — President Obama denied that the United States and its allies were losing the fight against Islamic State forces in the Middle East, but he acknowledged in an interview posted online on Thursday that more should be done to help Iraqis recapture lost territory.
While repeating his refusal to commit large-scale American forces to the region, the president said Sunni fighters in Iraq needed more commitment and training to take on fellow Sunnis aligned with the Islamic State. But he offered no regrets about his handling of the war and said in the end, it would be up to the Iraqis to increase their efforts.
“I don’t think we’re losing,” Mr. Obama told Jeffrey Goldberg, a journalist for The Atlantic in an interview conducted on Tuesday just days after the Iraqi city of Ramadi fell to Islamic State fighters. “There’s no doubt there was a tactical setback, although Ramadi had been vulnerable for a very long time, primarily because these are not Iraqi security forces that we have trained or reinforced.”
The president’s comments came a day before the Islamic State seized a second city, Palmyra, in central Syria, reinforcing concerns in that region and in Washington that Mr. Obama’s strategy has faltered. The president and his team argued for months that they had reversed the momentum of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, but critics and independent experts said it was now time to rethink the approach.
The United States is sending 1,000 antitank rockets to Iraq to help its forces counter vehicle bombs, which were used by the Islamic State to capture Ramadi, but the White House has made clear that it does not intend to engage in a broader overhaul of the American war effort in the region. Mr. Obama has authorized airstrikes and occasional Special Forces missions, but otherwise he said he was counting on the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq and moderate Syrian rebels to conduct the fight on the ground.
Some Republicans say this is inadequate. “Where is our morality?” Senator John McCain of Arizona, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on the Senate floor. “Where is our decency? Where is our concern about the thousands of people being slaughtered and displaced and their lives destroyed? And we shouldn’t set our hair on fire? Outrageous.”
In the interview, Mr. Obama attributed the fall of Ramadi to a failure by the Iraqi government to build up its forces, fortifications and command-and-control systems in Anbar Province, a largely Sunni region that has long been a hotbed of resistance to Shiite-led governments in Baghdad. Sunni forces in Anbar, he said, “have been there essentially for a year without significant reinforcements.”
“There’s no doubt that in the Sunni areas, we’re going to have to ramp up not just training but also commitment, and we better get Sunni tribes more activated than they currently have been,” Mr. Obama said. “So it is a source of concern.”
But he counseled patience. “We’re eight months into what we’ve always anticipated to be a multiyear campaign, and I think Prime Minister Abadi recognizes many of these problems, but they’re going to have to be addressed,” Mr. Obama said.
While Republican presidential candidates argue whether the original American invasion of 2003 was the right decision or not, Mr. Obama said the lesson he learned from that episode was that simply sending in American forces was not always the answer to every security threat. Mr. Obama withdrew remaining American troops from Iraq in 2011 after negotiations to leave behind a residual force collapsed.
“I know that there are some in Republican quarters who have suggested that I’ve overlearned the mistake of Iraq and that, in fact, just because the 2003 invasion did not go well doesn’t argue that we shouldn’t go back in,” he said. But the lesson of the last dozen years is that Iraqis have to be willing and capable to govern their own country, he said. “If they are not willing to fight for the security of their country,” he said, “we cannot do that for them.”
Addressing other issues in the Middle East, Mr. Obama warned Saudi Arabia and other gulf states not to pursue their own nuclear programs as a counterweight to Iran. A week after meeting with gulf leaders at Camp David, Mr. Obama said he had heard “legitimate skepticism and concern” from them about his tentative agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear program but stressed that they should feel assured of American support for their security.
“There has been no indication from the Saudis or any other” gulf state “that they have an intention to pursue their own nuclear program,” Mr. Obama said. Regional leaders should understand that “the protection that we provide as their partner is a far greater deterrent than they could ever hope to achieve by developing their own nuclear stockpile or trying to achieve breakout capacity when it comes to nuclear weapons.”
The Islamic State aims to build a broad colonial empire across many countries.
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Moreover, he added, “their covert — presumably — pursuit of a nuclear program would greatly strain the relationship they’ve got with the United States.”
As for his recent disagreements with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, Mr. Obama said again that he was a strong supporter of the Jewish state and that allies ought to be able to disagree without being accused of being anti-Israel.
He said Mr. Netanyahu’s pre-election statement suggesting that Arab-Israeli citizens were somehow “an invading force that might vote” was “contrary to the very language of the Israeli Declaration of Independence” and could not be ignored.
“When something like that happens, that has foreign policy consequences,” Mr. Obama said, “and precisely because we’re so close to Israel, for us to simply stand there and say nothing would have meant that this office, the Oval Office, lost credibility when it came to speaking out on those issues.”
He said many Jewish Americans support him regardless of the quarrel.
“I consistently received overwhelming majority support from the Jewish community and even after all the publicity around the recent differences that I’ve had with Prime Minister Netanyahu, the majority of the Jewish American community still supports me, and supports me strongly,” Mr. Obama said.
He said that his public criticism of Mr. Netanyahu was “fairly spare and mild” but blown up by some who have made “a very concerted effort on the part of some political forces to equate being pro-Israel, and hence being supportive of the Jewish people, with a rubber stamp on a particular set of policies coming out of the Israeli government.”
Mr. Obama said he rejected that view. “You should be able to say to Israel, ‘We disagree with you on this particular policy,’ ” he said, citing settlements, checkpoints and the rights of Arab citizens. “And to me, that is entirely consistent with being supportive of the State of Israel and the Jewish people.”
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CLEVELAND — A police officer who climbed onto the hood of a car after a chase in 2012 and fired repeatedly at its unarmed occupants, both of them black, was acquitted of manslaughter on Saturday by an Ohio judge.
The trial of the white officer, Michael Brelo, following harrowing episodes in communities such as Baltimore, Staten Island and Ferguson, Mo., played out amid broader questions of how the police interact with African-Americans and use force, in Cleveland and across the country.
Officer Brelo, 31, was one of 13 officers who fired 137 rounds at Timothy Russell and his passenger, Malissa Williams, who were killed after a chase through the area on Nov. 29, 2012. Officer Brelo fired his Glock 17 pistol 49 times, including at least 15 shots after he reloaded and climbed onto the hood of Mr. Russell’s 1979 Chevrolet Malibu and the other officers had stopped firing.
The chase started downtown after reports of gunfire from the car; prosecutors said the noise apparently was the result of the car’s backfiring. More than 100 officers pursued the car for more than 20 miles at speeds that reached 100 miles an hour. They began firing when the car was stopped and cornered.
While Officer Brelo did fire lethal shots at the two people, testimony did not prove that his shots caused either death, according to the ruling of Judge John P. O’Donnell of the Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Court. “The state did not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant, Michael Brelo, knowingly caused the deaths of Timothy Russell and Malissa Williams,” he ruled.
Officer Brelo, a former Marine who had opted for a bench trial, sat stoically throughout the four-week trial. On Saturday, he could be seen shifting in his seat, at times sitting back, and at other times resting his head in his hands. At one point, he made a quick sign of the cross. He embraced his lawyers after the verdict. He remains on an unpaid suspension.
Defense lawyers said their client had feared for his life and believed gunfire was coming from Mr. Russell’s car. No gun was recovered, and prosecutors said Mr. Russell and Ms. Williams had been unarmed.
Patrick A. D’Angelo, one of Officer Brelo’s lawyers, said his team was “elated” with the verdict, and he blamed an “oppressive government” for bringing the charges. “We stood tall; we stood firm,” Mr. D’Angelo said, “because we didn’t do anything illegal. We didn’t do anything wrong.”
But the verdict does not mean the end of scrutiny of the case or of police issues in Cleveland.
Federal officials will review the trial testimony and evidence, and a city panel is investigating Mr. Brelo’s actions and police conduct in the episode. Five supervisors face misdemeanor charges for their oversight of the case.
There are also two ongoing investigations of police shootings in November. One is looking into the death of Tamir Rice, a 12-year-old black boy who was holding a replica gun when a white Cleveland police officer shot him. That shooting, captured on video, has also garnered national attention and resulted in protests.
In the other, the Cuyahoga County prosecutor’s office is investigating the death of Tanisha Anderson. Ms. Anderson, a 37-year-old black woman whose family said she suffered from bipolar disorder, lost consciousness and died in police custody after being placed face down on the pavement. The medical examiner ruled her death a homicide
The verdict on Saturday was met with anger by many, particularly blacks. Last year, the Justice Department found a pattern of “unreasonable and unnecessary use of force” within the department.
Representative Marcia L. Fudge, a Democrat whose district is based in Cleveland, said Judge O’Donnell’s verdict was “a stunning setback.”
“The verdict is another chilling reminder of a broken relationship between the Cleveland police department and the community it serves,” she said. “Today we have been told — yet again — our lives have no value.”
At a midafternoon news conference, Cleveland’s mayor and police chief said there had been a number of nonviolent demonstrations in the city and that officers were working to keep the protests under control.
“So far, the protesters are making their voices heard, but they are doing it in a peaceful and very respectful way,” Mayor Frank Jackson said just after 4 p.m. “Police are doing an excellent job of monitoring the situation and protecting everyone’s rights — protesters and everyone else.”
A protest march continued into the evening, with more than 100 demonstrators chanting and blocking traffic downtown. There were several tense moments, including some minor scuffles and games of cat-and-mouse with the police, and unruliness with Cleveland Indians fans leaving the baseball stadium, but the event remained largely peaceful. The crowd dwindled as the evening went on, and the police first made a handful of arrests after 9 p.m., the time protesters were ordered to disperse.
DeVrick Stewart, 29, of Cleveland, said he had been marching since the morning and saw broad issues with how the police treat people.
“I came out because this seems to be a world issue,” said Mr. Stewart, who mentioned both the Brelo case and Tamir Rice’s death. “It’s not a white or black issue. It’s a police versus society issue.”
Timothy McGinty, the Cuyahoga County prosecutor, said in a news conference after the verdict that the investigation had led to several changes that he believed would prevent deaths, including better use-of-force training and increased penalties for officers who disregard department policies. As a result of the changes, “there will never have to be another Brelo trial,” he said.
Five police supervisors have been charged with dereliction of duty, a misdemeanor, for failing to bring the fatal chase under control. “We look forward to presenting another vigorous prosecution,” Mr. McGinty said.
In a statement, the United States attorney’s office, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice said they would review the testimony and evidence.
“We will continue our assessment, review all available legal options and will collaboratively determine what, if any, additional steps are available and appropriate given the requirements and limitations of the applicable laws in the federal judicial system,” the statement said.
In 2013, the Critical Incident Review Committee was formed to review the shooting. Cleveland’s police chief, Calvin D. Williams, said during a news conference that, so far, 72 officers had been suspended without pay. One supervisor was fired, and two more were demoted. Administrative charges against three officers were dismissed. The review was paused during Officer Brelo’s trial, but was expected to resume after the verdict.
Nine of the police officers disciplined for their roles in the shooting have filed a federal lawsuit against the city for racial discrimination. The officers — eight whites and one Hispanic — claim that they were disciplined more harshly because they were not black.
After the verdict, Officer Brelo’s future with the department remained unclear. Stephen S. Loomis, the president of the Cleveland Police Patrolmen’s Association, said Officer Brelo was going on a vacation with his family, but it was not known if he would be able to return to work.
During the trial, prosecutors argued that Officer Brelo’s actions crossed the line from justifiable to reckless when he climbed onto the car’s hood, but the judge disagreed.
Before rendering his verdict, Judge O’Donnell spoke from the bench about widespread tensions between the police and African-Americans, mentioning Ferguson and Baltimore.
“In many American places, people are angry with, mistrustful and fearful of, the police,” he said. “Citizens think the men and women sworn to protect and serve have violated that oath or never meant it in the first place.”
But Judge O’Donnell said he would not let those sentiments cloud his verdict, and he found that Officer Brelo had reasonably perceived a threat from Mr. Russell’s car. The decision to continue firing from the hood was protected by law, he ruled, clearing Officer Brelo of all charges. The shooting was “reasonable despite knowing now that there was no gun in the car and he was mistaken about the gunshots,” Judge O’Donnell said.
“I reject the claim that 12 seconds after the shooting began, it was patently clear from the perspective of a reasonable police officer that the threat had been stopped,” he said, contrasting the prosecutors’ claims that the justifiable action ended when Officer Brelo climbed onto the hood.
Officer Brelo will remain on unpaid suspension while the review panel that was formed after the shooting continues its investigation into his actions and those of 12 other officers involved, Chief Williams said. In November, the City of Cleveland agreed to pay $3 million to settle wrongful-death lawsuits brought by the families of Mr. Russell and Ms. Williams.
Surrounded by members of Mr. Russell’s family on Saturday afternoon, Paul Cristallo, a lawyer for the family, said relatives were “hugely disappointed” with the verdict. He said that the police created the chaotic circumstances that ultimately led to Officer Brelo’s acquittal. Police officers are trained to de-escalate tensions with civilians, he said, but that “doesn’t include surrounding them with 62 cars and having 13 officers shooting at them.”
“Fleeing and eluding shouldn’t get you the death penalty,” he added.
Mr. Russell’s sister, Michelle, lamented that the trial had relied on the version of events told by police officers, and said her brother and Ms. Williams were never able to tell their side of the story. The police officers were angry, she said, and acted with a “mob mentality.”
“They knew that night that once they caught up to Tim and Malissa that they were going to let them have it,” she said. “And that’s exactly what happened.”
But in closing arguments, Mr. D’Angelo said his client believed he was under attack when he fired on the car. “What would make him want to shoot through the windshield at another human being?” Mr. D’Angelo said. “Could it be that he was shot at? Could it be that he reasonably perceived that the occupants of the Malibu were shooting at him? That’s what all the other officers perceived. That’s what Officer Brelo perceived.”
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Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum want to deploy 10,000 American troops in Iraq as part of a coalition with Arab nations against Islamic State militants, and will settle for nothing less than “destroying the caliphate,” in Mr. Graham’s words.
Jeb Bush believes those additional American soldiers would have prevented the Islamic State from gathering strength in recent years. But an American-led force now? “I don’t think that will work,” he said in an interview Friday, his latest sign of wariness at the prospect of becoming the third President Bush to dispatch ground troops to the Middle East.
Marco Rubio describes his strategy against the Islamic State with a line from the action movie “Taken” — “we will look for you, we will find you, and we will kill you” — yet he is more inclined to provide “the most devastating air support possible” rather than send in American troops. Scott Walker and Rick Perry are more open to a combat mission, while Rand Paul wants boots on the ground — as long as they are “Arab boots on the ground.”
As President Obama grapples with the unnerving territorial gains of the Islamic State last week, the Republicans eyeing the White House are struggling to put forward strategies of their own. The most detailed ideas have come from Mr. Graham, a United States senator from South Carolina who is on the Armed Services Committee, yet he ranks so low in polls that it is unclear if he will qualify to participate in the coming candidate debates. Mr. Bush, a former governor of Florida, and Mr. Walker, the governor of Wisconsin, draw more support from voters at this point, yet seem less sure of their war footing, saying they would rely on guidance from military advisers.
Based on recent interviews with several declared and likely candidates, as well as their foreign policy speeches and off-the-cuff remarks, a picture emerges of a Republican field that sounds both hawkish and hesitant about fighting the Islamic State — especially before its warriors find ways to bring the fight to American soil, a threat that Mr. Bush, Mr. Walker and Mr. Graham foresee. (Those three men, as well as Mr. Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, and Mr. Perry, a former governor of Texas, plan to announce their presidential intentions soon.)
Yet most of the Republicans are also reluctant and even evasive when it comes to laying out detailed plans, preferring instead to criticize Mr. Obama’s war strategy.
The fallout from the American-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 has cast a specter over Republicans as they contemplate new deployments there, restraining some of them while tripping up others. Several say they favor some muscular policies, such as intensifying airstrikes (Mr. Rubio, Mr. Graham, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas) and providing weapons to Kurdish fighters (Mr. Graham, Mr. Cruz, Mr. Huckabee and Carly Fiorina, a former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard). But most have not been bold about trying to sell these ideas to voters.
Putting forward a plan of attack carries sizable risks for the Republicans. While the hopefuls might win votes in the 2016 primaries with aggressive postures against the Islamic State, they could also turn off some independent and war-weary voters whose support will be needed in the 2016 general election.
At the same time, no one wants to get ahead of events in the Middle East over the next eight months, before the first ballots are cast in Iowa and New Hampshire. Publicly committing to an American ground presence this far in advance poses hazards: Such a candidate, if elected, would become a war president immediately upon taking office in January 2017 and would be obliged to face the challenges of the Islamic State (assuming the fight were still underway) even if other pressing matters emerged, like the economy or a nuclear Iran.
Mr. Bush is among the most elusive. At times he sounds bellicose: “Restrain them, tighten the noose, and then taking them out is the strategy” against the Islamic State, he said in February. The next month he endorsed creating “a protected zone in northeast Syria where you could allow for an army to be built, both a Syrian free army and international soldiers with air power from the United States.” Yet Mr. Bush has not laid out substantive details for such aggressive actions.
At other times, he sounds uncertain: He recently floundered for days about whether he would have invaded Iraq in 2003 — and then found himself defending President George W. Bush, his brother, from a college student’s charge that he “created” the Islamic State by disbanding Saddam Hussein’s powerful army.
As for the role of American ground troops in the Middle East, Mr. Bush was more ambiguous than adamant last week.
“Whether we need more than 3,000, which is what we have now, I would base that on what the military advisers say,” Mr. Bush said Wednesday in New Hampshire. On Friday, after a speech in Oklahoma City, he said former military officials had told him that American forces “should embed in the Iraqi military.”
“The Canadians and French do,” he continued, “but we’re prohibited. That’s just remarkable.”
Mr. Rubio said in an interview that as part of a “strategic overhaul,” he would consider sending American special forces to work with Iraqi troops to weaken the Islamic State’s recruitment effort by “demoralizing them, embarrassing them, humiliating them through strategic and high-profile defeats.”
Some Republicans who have tended to be vague, like Mr. Walker, still lack expertise on foreign affairs. Mr. Walker said in an interview on Thursday that he would not “rule anything out” in battling the Islamic State and that he would allow American soldiers to act as so-called spotters near combat lines in Iraq to call in highly specific coordinates for airstrikes. (Several Republicans are open to this; the Obama administration has relied mostly on Iraqi and Canadian forces.)
“We need to empower the forces and individuals we have there connected to the military to more fully engage,” said Mr. Walker, who in the past has compared the Islamic State to “a virus in the computer” that needs to be wiped out in the Middle East before it spreads to the United States.
Several Republicans believe that the videotaped beheadings by Islamic State militants were a tipping point for many voters. In the view of advisers to these presidential hopefuls, the butchery elevated the Islamic State into a source of fear for Americans and turned the acronym ISIS into a widely recognized name — much like Al Qaeda after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The executions of hostages of different faiths in Syria, Egypt and Libya have been mentioned by voters at town-hall-style meetings and private fund-raisers for Mr. Bush, Mr. Rubio, Mr. Walker and others this spring.
As a result, a grim outlook prevails: A New York Times/CBS News poll this month found that 64 percent of respondents said the American military fight against ISIS was going “somewhat badly” or “very badly.” Eight in 10 Republicans held these views, as did half of the Democrats surveyed. (At the same time, fewer than 20 percent of Republicans and Democrats said foreign policy would matter more than domestic issues in deciding how to vote for president.)
Rather than make military commitments, most of the presidential contenders have pledged to pursue diplomatic options to counter the Islamic State. Democrats have, too: Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday that Iraqi soldiers had to lead the fight against the Islamic State, adding that “there is no role whatsoever for American soldiers on the ground to go back, other than in the capacity as trainers and advisers.” Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has ruled out American combat forces.
And even though many of the Republicans’ foreign policy advisers believe the United States must ultimately take a leading role in a coalition against the Islamic State, most in the 2016 field, for now, are taking the relatively safe route of expounding on the need for stronger alliances with Arab nations.
“When allies lose confidence in us, they take matters into their own hands,” Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey said last week. “I think it’s better for America to extend a helping hand — and help manage events.”
Mr. Christie’s language, including calling for “rolling back the shadow of ISIS,” was less loaded than that of many other Republicans. On Thursday, for instance, Mr. Santorum declared, “If ISIS wants to bring back a seventh-century version of Islam, then we need to load up our bombers and bomb them back into the seventh century, where they belong.”
But like many of his rivals, Mr. Santorum left many of the precise details and potential fallout of that declaration largely unaddressed.
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BAGHDAD — Just last month, when Western and Iraqi officials talked about the Islamic State, it was mostly to list a series of setbacks to the terrorist group: defeated in the Syrian town of Kobani, battered by a heavy airstrike campaign, forced out of a growing list of towns and cities in Iraq.
But in just the past week, the Islamic State has turned that story around. Last weekend it solidified its hold on Iraq’s Anbar Province with a carefully choreographed assault on the regional capital, Ramadi. And on Wednesday, it stretched its territory in Syria into the historically and strategically important city of Palmyra.
Confounding declarations of the group’s decline, the twin offensives have become a sudden showcase for the group’s disciplined adherence to its core philosophies: always fighting on multiple fronts, wielding atrocities to scare off resistance and, especially, enforcing its caliphate in the Sunni heartland that straddles the Iraqi-Syrian border. In doing so, the Islamic State has not only survived setbacks, but also engineered new victories.
“Nobody here from the president on down is saying that this is something that we’ll just overcome immediately,” a senior State Department official said in a briefing with reporters on Wednesday, in which the ground rules demanded anonymity. “It’s an extremely serious situation.”
Within Iraq, the group’s offensive was taking shape almost immediately after the government’s victory last month in the central city of Tikrit.
Islamic State fighters took up simultaneous pressure campaigns on Iraq’s largest oil refinery, north of Baghdad in Baiji, and on Ramadi. In Diyala, the group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, orchestrated a prison break, a signature operation it has carried out frequently over the years and which could help restore its capability in the eastern province.
The broad scope of operations now seems to have been designed to wear out the Iraqi security forces and make sure they were dispersed when the Islamic State began its heaviest push against Ramadi this month, said Jessica Lewis McFate, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a research organization in Washington that has advocated a more muscular response by the United States to the threat of the Islamic State.
A visual guide to the crisis in Iraq and Syria.
How ISIS Captured Ramadi
The Islamic State has been battling for Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, since mid-April. The group launched a new assault on May 15 with the backing of sleeper cells to capture government facilities and take control of most of the city just two days later, on May 17. Ramadi is strategic to the Islamic State because of its proximity to Baghdad. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Source: Institute for the Study of War
ISIS established control in these central areas
Iraqi Security Forces were evacuated from the Malab neighborhood
Areas under Iraqi Security Forces control
Final Days Assault
A sandstorm forces the American-led airstrike campaign to pause, giving the group time to carry out 10 car bombings followed by a wave of ground attacks that overwhelms the Iraqi forces.
Iraqi Security Forces Retreat
Within days, Iraqi security forces flee, and Islamic State fighters take control of key government facilities.
Areas under Iraqi Security Forces control
Iraqi Security Forces Retreat
Within days, Iraqi security forces flee, and Islamic State fighters take control of key government facilities.
Final Days Assault
A sandstorm forces the American-led airstrike campaign to pause, giving the group time to carry out 10 car bombings followed by a wave of ground attacks that overwhelms the Iraqi forces.
May 15
Final Days Assault
May 18
Iraqi Security Forces Retreat
Areas under Iraqi Security Forces control
Source: Institute for the Study of War
After Taking Ramadi, ISIS Continues Offensive
In the biggest victory for the Islamic State this year, militants took advantage of a sandstorm on Sunday to capture Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province. Fighters seized a large cache of weapons, including rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine guns supplied by the United States and Russia. They have since continued east, attacking the town of Khaldiya on Monday and breaking the Iraqi government's line of defense in Husayba on Thursday. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISIS area of influence); International Crisis Group.
Concentration of Shiite militia and Iraq government forces
Cities under ISIS control
Areas where ISIS can operate
Concentration of Shiite militia and Iraq government forces
Cities under ISIS control
Areas where ISIS can operate
Cities under ISIS control
Areas where ISIS can operate
Cities under ISIS control
Areas where ISIS can operate
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISIS area of influence); International Crisis Group.
ISIS Takes Second Key City This Week
Just days after seizing Ramadi, in western Iraq, Islamic State militants captured the Syrian city of Palmyra, which had been under government control. There is concern that the Islamic State could destroy the ancient sites in Palmyra. The city, also known as Tadmur, is a critical stop on the highway between cities in the west and Deir al-Zour. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: Institute for the Study of War
ISIS fighters captured this district when the offensive began last week
Palmyra Airport
and Military
Airbase
Road to Homs,
90 miles,
and Damascus,
130 miles
ISIS fighters captured this district when the offensive began last week
Palmyra Airport
and Military
Airbase
Road to Homs,
90 miles,
and Damascus,
130 miles
ISIS fighters captured this district when the offensive began last week
Palmyra Airport
and Military
Airbase
Road to Homs,
90 miles,
and Damascus,
130 miles
Palmyra Airport
and Military
Airbase
ISIS fighters captured this district when the offensive began last week
Palmyra Airport
and Military
Airbase
Road to Homs,
90 miles,
and Damascus,
130 miles
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Despite Tikrit Loss, ISIS Still Holds Large Swaths of Iraq
Iraqi forces took control of Tikrit from the Islamic State on Tuesday after weeks of ground attacks and airstrikes. Iraqi military leaders are now vowing to move to liberate Anbar Province, the Sunni heartland in western Iraq. The militants hold more than half of Anbar Province, including the city of Falluja and large areas around the capital, Ramadi. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISIS area of influence); International Crisis Group.
Ethnic majority
Sunni Arab
Shiite Arab
Kurd
Other
Areas under full
ISIS control
Kurdish
and Shiite
fighters
Ethnic majority
Sunni Arab
Shiite Arab
Kurd
Other
Areas under
full ISIS
control
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISIS area of influence); International Crisis Group.
The Front Line Between ISIS and Iraqi Forces in Tikrit
After weeks of Iraqi military ground attacks and five days of heavy coalition airstrikes, ISIS continued to control large portions of Tikrit, a strategic city in Iraq's central Sunni heartland. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Former presidential
palace
ISIS supply route north
Surrounded ISIS militants used tunnels to evade Iraqi forces and gain access to Highway 1. The highway is a critical supply route to Mosul, ISIS’ major base in Iraq.
Former presidential
palace
ISIS supply route north
Surrounded ISIS militants used tunnels to evade Iraqi forces and gain access to Highway 1. The highway is a critical supply route to Mosul, ISIS’ major base in Iraq.
ISIS supply line north
Despite being surrounded, ISIS militants
used tunnels to evade government fighters
and access Highway 1. The highway is a
critical supply line to and from Mosul, ISIS’
major base in Iraq.
ISIS supply route north
Surrounded ISIS militants used tunnels to evade Iraqi forces and gain access to Highway 1. The highway is a critical supply route to Mosul, ISIS’ major base in Iraq.
Areas under full ISIS control
Areas under full ISIS control
Areas under full ISIS control
1 Government forces and allied militias continued to battle ISIS militants in Tikrit.
2 At the same time, ISIS fighters were mounting a fierce assault on Ramadi.
3 Kurdish and Sunni tribal fighters advanced on ISIS territory from the northern city of Kirkuk.
4 Residents of Hawija said that ISIS executed some of its own fighters for trying to flee as the group came under attack from Kurdish forces.
1 Government forces and allied militias continued to battle ISIS militants in Tikrit.
2 At the same time, ISIS fighters were mounting a fierce assault on Ramadi.
3 Kurdish and Sunni tribal fighters advanced on ISIS territory from the northern city of Kirkuk.
4 Residents of Hawija said that ISIS executed some of its own fighters for trying to flee as the group came under attack from Kurdish forces.
| 1 Government forces and allied militias continued to battle ISIS militants in Tikrit. | 2 At the same time, ISIS fighters were mounting a fierce assault on Ramadi. | 3 Kurdish and Sunni tribal fighters advanced on ISIS territory from the northern city of Kirkuk. | 4 Residents of Hawija said that ISIS executed some of its own fighters for trying to flee as the group came under attack from Kurdish forces. |
Source: Institute for the Study of War
The Operation to Recapture Tikrit From ISIS
Pro-government forces are close to recapturing Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein, from the Islamic State. More than 30,000 fighters — soldiers, Shiite militia forces, Sunni tribal fighters and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps — are involved in the offensive, which is the largest operation against ISIS since it took over much of northern Iraq last year. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: Institute for the Study of War, Long War Journal, Iraqi government, Asa’ab Ahl al-Haq
Area still
controlled
by ISIS.
Pro-Iraqi forces
took control on
March 12
Area still
controlled
by ISIS.
Pro-Iraqi forces
took control on
March 12
Area still
controlled
by ISIS.
Pro-Iraqi forces
took control on
March 12
1. On March 2, fighters approach Tikrit from the south and east, clearing villages along the way to Alam and Dour, two ISIS strongholds.
2. ISIS uses snipers, roadside bombs and other guerrilla tactics to keep pro-government forces from advancing. ISIS wired a major bridge to Tikrit from Tuz Khurmato with bombs.
3. Pro-government forces take control of Dour and Alam. As they consolidate their hold on the area, they uncover two mass graves in Albu Ajeel, believed to be the remains of soldiers massacred last summer by ISIS.
4. Pro-government forces seize large sections of Tikrit on March 10 and 11. On March 12, they take control of the western neighborhoods, leaving only the presidential palace complex and small pockets of the city center in ISIS hands.
1. On March 2, fighters approach Tikrit from the south and east, clearing villages along the way to Alam and Dour, two ISIS strongholds.
2. ISIS uses snipers, roadside bombs and other guerrilla tactics to keep pro-government forces from advancing. ISIS wired a major bridge to Tikrit from Tuz Khurmato with bombs.
3. Pro-government forces take control of Dour and Alam. As they consolidate their hold on the area, they uncover two mass graves in Albu Ajeel, believed to be the remains of soldiers massacred last summer by ISIS.
4. Pro-government forces seize large sections of Tikrit on March 10 and 11. On March 12, they take control of the western neighborhoods, leaving only the presidential palace complex and small pockets of the city center in ISIS hands.
| 1. On March 2, fighters approach Tikrit from the south and east, clearing villages along the way to Alam and Dour, two ISIS strongholds. | 2. ISIS uses snipers, roadside bombs and other guerrilla tactics to keep pro-government forces from advancing. ISIS wired a major bridge to Tikrit from Tuz Khurmato with bombs. | 3. Pro-government forces take control of Dour and Alam. As they consolidate their hold on the area, they uncover two mass graves in Albu Ajeel, believed to be the remains of soldiers massacred last summer by ISIS. | 4. Pro-government forces seize large sections of Tikrit on March 10 and 11. On March 12, they take control of the western neighborhoods, leaving only the presidential palace complex and small pockets of the city center in ISIS hands. |
Source: Institute for the Study of War, Long War Journal, Iraqi government, Asa’ab Ahl al-Haq
ISIS Territory Remains Larger Than Many Countries
Despite the American-led airstrikes, the area controlled by ISIS has not shifted significantly since last summer, when the group took over large parts of Syria and Iraq. The territory seized by the radical Islamist group is greater than many countries. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Areas under
full ISIS control
Areas under full
ISIS control
Source: Institute for the Study of War
ISIS Attacks Against Assyrian Christians
ISIS militants have kidnapped an estimated 300 people from a string of villages along the Khabur River. The residents here are mostly Assyrian, an indigenous Christian people, and the area has long been controlled by Kurdish militias. Villages have changed hands several times in recent weeks as Kurdish, Arab Muslim and Christian groups have joined forces against the Islamic State attacks.Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Sources: Assyrian Human Rights Network, Assyrian International News Agency, Syriac Military Council
Tel Tamr
Residents reported ISIS bombed the bridge over the river on Tuesday.
Tel Shamiram
ISIS reported to be holding about 60 women and children captive.
There are 35 Assyrian villages on the Khabur River.
Tel Tamr
Residents reported ISIS bombed the bridge over the river on Tuesday.
Tel Shamiram
ISIS reported to be holding about 60 women and children captive.
There are 35 Assyrian villages on the Khabur River.
Sources: Assyrian Human Rights Network, Assyrian International News Agency, Syriac Military Council
Where the Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria Are Coming From
At least 20,000 fighters have traveled to Syria and Iraq over the course of the recent conflicts in the two countries, according to a recently updated report by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence. In response, many countries have passed laws making it illegal to travel to fight in a foreign conflict or, even more specifically, making it illegal to join the Islamic State. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Sources: Country of origin data from Peter Neumann, King's College London; the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence
North Africa and Middle East
The largest share of foreign fighters counted in the study came from Tunisia, a country with one of the more stable post-Arab Spring governments. Saudi Arabia’s share is also large, but recent government crackdowns have stanched the flow of fighters.
Former Soviet States
Decades of officially sanctioned religious persecution, ethnic conflicts and Islamic radicalization are key reasons for the flow of fighters from post-Soviet states, according to Peter Neumann, director of the I.C.S.R. Many fighters have combat experience from decades of war in the Caucasus.
Western Europe
The war in Syria has drawn young Europeans, many of whom have used cheap flights to Turkey as a route to Syria. Mr. Neumann noted that some small European countries like Belgium produce a remarkable number of fighters in relation to their population.
Other regions
American law enforcement officials have focused not only on monitoring social media networks more aggressively, but also on educating state and local authorities about ways to identify potential travelers.
Low end of estimate range
Tunisia
1,500 tO 3,000 FIGHTERS
Saudi
Arabia
1,500 to 2,500
North Africa and Middle East
The largest share of foreign fighters counted in the study came from Tunisia, a country with one of the more stable post-Arab Spring governments. Saudi Arabia’s share is also large, but recent government crackdowns have stanched the flow of fighters.
Tunisia
1,500 tO 3,000 FIGHTERS
Saudi
Arabia
1,500 to 2,500
Former Soviet States
Decades of officially sanctioned religious persecution, ethnic conflicts and Islamic radicalization are key reasons for the flow of fighters from post-Soviet states, according to Peter Neumann, director of the I.C.S.R. Many fighters have combat experience from decades of war in the Caucasus.
Low end of
estimate range
Western Europe
The war in Syria has drawn young Europeans, many of whom have used cheap flights to Turkey as a route to Syria. Mr. Neumann noted that some small European countries like Belgium produce a remarkable number of fighters in relation to their population.
Other regions
American law enforcement officials have focused not only on monitoring social media networks more aggressively, but also on educating state and local authorities about ways to identify potential travelers.
Tunisia
1,500
tO 3,000
FIGHTERS
Low end
of estimate range
Saudi
Arabia
1,500 to
2,500
Sources: Country of origin data from Peter Neumann, King's College London; the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence
Fallout From the Battle With ISIS for Kobani
Weeks of ISIS attacks and coalition airstrikes have resulted in widespread damage across the Syrian border town of Kobani, according to an analysis by Unitar/Unosat. The violence has also forced many of residents to flee north into Turkey. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Satellite images by DigitalGlobe via Unitar/Unosat
Destruction in Kobani Damage in the eastern part of the city. Several buildings appear to be destroyed or heavily damaged.
ground
Carved out
for car
storage
Border Crossing Hundreds of vehicles clustered around a border crossing point on the Syrian side of the border.
Refugee Camp Over the border in Turkey, a camp has been created for the increasing numbers of refugees fleeing the violence.
Destruction in Kobani Damage in the eastern part of the city. Several buildings appear to be destroyed or heavily damaged.
Satellite images by DigitalGlobe via Unitar/Unosat
ISIS Solidifies Control of Anbar Province
Since August, Anbar Province has been the scene of intense back-and-forth fighting with the Islamic State. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Control
ISIS
Iraqi government
Contested
Captured or contested since Sept. 1
Control
ISIS
Iraqi government
Contested
Captured or contested since Sept. 1
HadithaSept. 6 to 15
Iraqi soldiers, supported by local Sunni tribes and U.S. airstrikes, fought ISIS militants and succeeded in driving them from the Haditha Dam and nearby towns.
HitOct. 2 to 7
ISIS began an offensive to take control of Hit. Within days, ISIS militants controlled large parts of the city and the nearby town of Kubaysa, besieged the local police station and threatened a major air base nearby.
RamadiSept. 19 to Oct. 12
Ramadi is the center of the tribal resistance against ISIS in Anbar Province and the home of Ahmed Abu Risha, a prominent anti-ISIS leader. ISIS has repeatedly attacked the area and killed the provincial chief of police on Oct. 12.
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Watching as ISIS Attacks a Border Town
As of Thursday, Turkey had refused to intervene in the Islamic State’s tightening siege of the Syrian border town of Kobani, in spite of pressure from the White House and demonstrations in Turkey and Europe by angry Kurds. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Turkish Kurds
watch the Islamist
assault to the city
while Turkish
tanks stand.
Turkish Kurds watch the Islamist assault to the city while Turkish tanks stand.
Photograph by Umit Bektas/Reuters.
ISIS Battles Kurds Over Syrian Border Town
Turkish troops continued to watch from a hilltop across the border as fighting raged between the Islamic State and Kurds in the Syrian border town of Kobani. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Source: Satellite image by DigitalGlobe, via Google Earth
Turkish armored units
enforced border crossing.
A huge plume
rose in this area
Wednesday.
Black ISIS flag
visible on hilltop.
Airstrikes in this area
have targeted tanks
and armed vehicles.
Five latest U.S.
airstrikes targeted areas
south of the city only.
Turkish armored units enforced border crossing.
A huge plume
rose in this area
Wednesday.
Black ISIS flag
visible on hilltop.
Five latest U.S.
airstrikes targeted areas
south of the city only.
Source: Satellite image by DigitalGlobe, via Google Earth
Amid Airstrikes Against ISIS, Refugees Flee Syria
More than three million refugees have fled Syria since 2012. Most have crossed the border to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, with smaller numbers going to Iraq and Egypt. Only about 12 percent live in the large refugee camps that have been built; many of the rest live in substandard shelters in towns and villages. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Iraq
215,303
as of Sept. 15
Iraq
215,303
as of Sept. 15
Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Source: Based on Defense Department statements
The Air Campaign Against the Islamic State Moves to Syria
The United States and Arab allies began a bombing campaign against the Islamic State early Tuesday, targeting bases, training camps and checkpoints in at least four provinces in Syria. Separately, the United States Central Command attacked Khorasan, a network of Al Qaeda veterans suspected of plotting terror attacks on Western targets. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Sources: Defense Department; Institute for the Study of War
Attack on
Khorasan group
in this area
Locations hit
by airstrikes
Approximate
areas under full
Islamic State control
Attack on Khorasan
group near this area
Locations hit
by airstrikes
Approximate
areas under full
Islamic State control
ISIS locations hit
by airstrikes
Sources: Defense Department; Institute for the Study of War
Some of the ISIS Locations Struck in Syria
American officials said the first day of airstrikes in Syria destroyed or damaged multiple Islamic State sites in areas ranging from urban centers to remote compounds. Related Maps and Multimedia »Related article »
Sources: Satellite images on left from DigitalGlobe, via Google Earth; images of targeted structures from the Defense Department
Sources: Satellite images on left from DigitalGlobe, via Google Earth; images of targeted structures from the Defense Department
Strikes in Northern Iraq
American fighter jets and drones attacked 68 targets in northern Iraq in the first week and a half of airstrikes, according to the U.S. Central Command. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Note: Strikes were not reported comprehensively day by day, so some may be missing from daily tallies.
Strikes Reported Each Day
KURDISH
AUTONOMOUS
REGION
Near Mount Sinjar
At least 13 strikes
Near Mosul Dam
At least 35 Strikes
Near Erbil
At least 20 Strikes
Strikes Reported Each Day
KURDISH
AUTONOMOUS
REGION
Near Mount Sinjar
At least 13 strikes
Near Erbil
At least 20 Strikes
Near Mosul Dam
At least 35 Strikes
Mount Sinjar
Thousands of Yazidi refugees were trapped on the mountain after fleeing Islamist fighters. Targets included:
3 armed vehicles5 personnel carriers1 armored vehicle1 Humvee3 trucks1 mortar position4checkpointsMosul Dam
American strikes allowed Kurdish fighters to regain the dam, which they lost two weeks ago. Targets included:
19 armed vehicles7 Humvees2 antiaircraft guns1 armored vehicle9 fighting positions3 checkpoints2I.E.D.s2 personnel carriersErbil
Strikes in this area helped repel militants approaching the regional capital. Targets included:
7 armed vehicles1 mobile artillery7 vehicles2 mortar positions1 mine-resistant vehicle
Note: Strikes were not reported comprehensively day by day, so some may be missing from daily tallies.
A Closer Look At Mount Sinjar
Tens of thousands of Yazidis, a religious minority group in Iraq, were trapped on Mount Sinjar, besieged by ISIS militants who captured their towns at the foot of the mountain range in early August. Satellite imagery taken Aug. 7 indicates that many of the displaced fled ISIS by driving vehicles up the mountain, where some encountered road blocks and abandoned their cars. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: Vehicle locations from satellite imagery by DigitalGlobe via Amnesty International
Red dots are vehicles visible in satellite imagery
Sinjar Mountains
Elevation 4,449 ft.
Area of
assessed
satellite
imagery
ABOUT 250 MILES TO BAGHDAD
Area of assessed
satellite imagery
Red indicates
vehicles on mountain
Sinjar Mountains
Elevation 4,449 ft.
Source: Vehicle locations from satellite imagery by DigitalGlobe via Amnesty International
Iraqis Driven From Their Homes by ISIS
The United Nations estimates that militants with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria have forced nearly 180,000 families — or more than a million people — from their homes in Iraq. The exodus roughly breaks down into three phases. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Note: The United Nations estimates one Iraqi family is equal to six individuals. Source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix
January 1 to May 31
Over 151 days, 540 families, on average, were displaced daily.
Anbar Province
321,210 familiesknown displaced
Months before it became something of a household name, ISIS took control of much of Anbar Province, displacing an estimated 500,000 Iraqis.
June 1 to July 31
Over 61 days, 1,341 families, on average, were displaced daily.
Anbar Province
321,210 familiesknown displaced
Another half-million Iraqis were displaced in June and July when ISIS captured Mosul and advanced south toward Baghdad.
August 1 to August 6
Over 6 days, 2,137 families, on average, were displaced daily.
Anbar Province
321,210 familiesknown displaced
In early August, ISIS seized several towns under Kurdish control, displacing Yazidis, Christians and other religious minority groups. Although the United Nations says that the capture of Sinjar may have displaced that number is not yet included in the official data.
Note: The United Nations estimates one Iraqi family is equal to six individuals. Source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix
U.S. Strikes Militants Near Erbil
American jets attacked mobile artillery vehicles that had been shelling Kurdish targets in Erbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdistan region. The city has boomed since the American-led invasion of Iraq. It is home to a growing expatriate community of investment consultants and oil executives, as well as to an American consulate. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Sources: American and Kurdish officials
Mosul
Islamist militants have controlled Iraq's second-largest city since June 10.
Mosul Dam
Captured by
militants on
Thursday.
ABOUT 150 MILES
TO BAGHDAD
Mahmour
Bombed by American
jets on Friday.
Historic citadel
of Erbil
United States Consulate
is in this neighborhood
Mahmour
Bombed by
American jets
on Friday.
Mosul
Islamist militants have
controlled Iraq's second-largest
city since June 10.
Mosul Dam
Captured by militants
on Thursday.
Historic citadel
of Erbil
United States Consulate
is in this neighborhood
Mahmour
Bombed by American
jets on Friday.
Mosul Dam
Captured by militants
on Thursday.
Sources: American and Kurdish officials
Iraq’s Tangle of Insurgent Groups
Though ISIS has grown to be the most powerful militant group in Iraq, its foothold in the country relies on negotiating a shifting tangle of smaller groups and alliances. This is a snapshot of the active militant groups in provinces north and west of Baghdad, based on information from the Pentagon and other U.S. officials and reporting by Times journalists in Iraq. Related article »
Related Maps and Multimedia »
Related Maps and Multimedia »
Click group names for more details.
Naqshbandia Order/J.R.T.N. »
Baathist
Active in: Diyala, Salahuddin
ISIS relationship: Fighting
Established in 2007, the group's reputed leader was a high-ranking deputy in Saddam Hussein's regime. The group is believed to have initially assisted ISIS in its push south from Mosul.
1920 Revolution Brigades »
Baathist
Active in: Diyala, Anbar
ISIS relationship: Fighting in some areas
Formed by disaffected Iraqi Army officers who were left without jobs after the Americans dissolved the military in 2003.
Islamic Army of Iraq »
Salafist
Active in: Diyala, Salahuddin, Anbar
ISIS relationship: Periodic fighting
ISIS has targeted family members of the leadership of this group, which has long had a presence in Diyala and has been involved in past sectarian battles.
Mujahedeen Army »
Salafist
Active in: Diyala, Salahuddin, Anbar
ISIS relationship: Truce
A nationalist Islamist group that advocates overthrowing the Iraqi government.
Khata'ib al-Mustapha »
Salafist
Active in: Diyala
ISIS relationship: Truce
Islamic militants who fight against the government.
Army of Muhammad »
Salafist
Active in: Anbar
ISIS relationship: Allies
Islamic militants who fight against the government.
Khata'ib Tawrat al-Ashreen »
Anti-government Sunni Tribe
Active in: Diyala, Salahuddin
ISIS relationship: Truce
Sunni tribes opposed to the Iraqi government.
Ansar al-Islam/Ansar al-Sunna »
Islamist Jihadist
Active in: Diyala
ISIS relationship: Fighting
An Al Qaeda-affiliated group that has led a number of deadly attacks in Iraq over the years.
Opportunity and Hazard for Iraq’s Kurds
In northern Iraq, Kurds control a semiautonomous region that is more economically secure because of access to oil, and relatively stable because of a well-trained military force known as the pesh merga.
Recent gains by militants in Iraq prompted the pesh merga to take control of towns (), including the oil-rich area around Kirkuk. The regional government hopes to hold a referendum on independence soon, but faces pressure from the United States and other countries to remain a part of Iraq. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Recent gains by militants in Iraq prompted the pesh merga to take control of towns (), including the oil-rich area around Kirkuk. The regional government hopes to hold a referendum on independence soon, but faces pressure from the United States and other countries to remain a part of Iraq. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Sources: Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project, Caerus Associates, Long War Journal, Institute for the Study of War
PREDOMINANTLY
KURDISH AREAS
Kurdish autonomous region
PREDOMINANTLY
KURDISH AREAS
Kurdish autonomous region
Sources: Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project, Caerus Associates, Long War Journal, Institute for the Study of War
Refugees From Two Countries in Turmoil
More than a million Iraqis have been displaced this year, according to new estimates by the United Nations, worsening a regional refugee crisis stemming from Syria’s civil war. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: United Nations
Syrian RefugeesMost of the Syrians who have been displaced have fled to Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Nearly all of those fleeing to Iraq have gone to the Kurdish autonomous region.
Kurdish
autonomous
region
Thousands of
refugees at
destination
Displaced IraqisThe rapid advance of Sunni militants from Mosul toward Baghdad displaced an estimated 500,000 Iraqis in recent weeks, adding to the hundreds of thousands displaced earlier this year. Many have gone to the already crowded camps in the Kurdish autonomous region.
THOUSANDS OF REFUGEES
AT DESTINATION
Kurdish
autonomous
region
Syrian RefugeesMost of the Syrians who have been displaced have fled to Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Nearly all of those fleeing to Iraq have gone to the Kurdish autonomous region.
Displaced IraqisThe rapid advance of Sunni militants from Mosul toward Baghdad displaced an estimated 500,000 Iraqis in recent weeks, adding to the hundreds of thousands displaced earlier this year. Many have gone to the already crowded camps in the Kurdish autonomous region.
Source: United Nations
How Syria and Iraq’s Borders Evolved
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is trying to establish its own Sunni state across borders that have their origins in the Ottoman Empire and post World War I diplomacy. Related Maps and Multimedia »Related article »
Sources: Rand, McNally & Co. World Atlas (1911 Ottoman Empire map); United Kingdom National Archives (Sykes-Picot); Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project (religious and ethnic map)
- Ottoman Empire
- Sykes-Picot Agreement
- Current Boundaries
Ottoman provincial borders
Ottoman provincial borders
Independent Arab states
under French influence
Independent
Arab states under
British influence
Independent Arab states
under French influence
Independent
Arab states under
British influence
Ottoman Empire
Before WWI, the Middle East was divided into several administrative provinces under the Ottoman Empire. Modern Iraq is roughly made up of the Ottoman provinces of Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra.
Sykes-Picot Agreement
In 1916, Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot, British and French diplomats, secretly drew the first map to divide up the Ottoman Empire, beginning a series of border negotiations that led to the establishment of British and French mandates in 1920.
Religious and Ethnic Regions Today
Iraq's current boundaries bring together different, often adversarial, groups under one mixed national identity that has been strained by conflict. Still, if Iraq were to split, partition would not be so simple as drawing new borders along religious or ethnic lines.
Sources: Rand, McNally & Co. World Atlas (1911 Ottoman Empire map); United Kingdom National Archives (Sykes-Picot); Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project (religious and ethnic map)
Key
Border crossing Crossing controlled by ISIS
Border crossing Crossing controlled by ISIS
Tanf
Controlled by
Syrian government
Yaroubia
Syrian
Kurdish
forces
Rabia
Iraqi Kurdish
pesh merga
Yaroubia
Controlled by
Syrian Kurdish forces
Rabia
Iraqi Kurdish
pesh merga
Syria and
Jordan
Karamah
Control Jordanian Army
The Jordanian army has increased security at the crossing, which remains open, but with little traffic.
The Jordanian army has increased security at the crossing, which remains open, but with little traffic.
Tanf
Control Syrian government
Bukamal
ControlISIS
Seized June 25
A local agreement between ISIS and the Nusra Front on June 25 effectively placed Bukamal under ISIS control. By June 30, ISIS had wrested full control of the town and border crossing.
Seized June 25
A local agreement between ISIS and the Nusra Front on June 25 effectively placed Bukamal under ISIS control. By June 30, ISIS had wrested full control of the town and border crossing.
Yaroubia
Control Syrian Kurdish forces
Seized October 2013
This side is controlled by Syrian Kurdish forces affiliated with a party that is engaged in a power struggle with Iraqi Kurdish leaders.
Seized October 2013
This side is controlled by Syrian Kurdish forces affiliated with a party that is engaged in a power struggle with Iraqi Kurdish leaders.
Iraq
Trebil
Control Unclear
ISIS took this crossing on June 22 after Iraqi forces fled, but recent reports of vehicle traffic from Jordan indicate that the crossing may be back the hands of the government.
ISIS took this crossing on June 22 after Iraqi forces fled, but recent reports of vehicle traffic from Jordan indicate that the crossing may be back the hands of the government.
Waleed
Control Unclear
ISIS took this crossing on June 22. The Iraqi government said that it is back in control of the crossing, but this could not be confirmed.
ISIS took this crossing on June 22. The Iraqi government said that it is back in control of the crossing, but this could not be confirmed.
Qaim
Control ISIS
Seized June 20
ISIS took control of the municipal council, customs office, border crossing and Iraqi police station, increasing its already significant presence on the main route between Baghdad and Aleppo. The Iraqi government said it abandoned the crossing in a strategic move to concentrate forces in Baghdad.
Seized June 20
ISIS took control of the municipal council, customs office, border crossing and Iraqi police station, increasing its already significant presence on the main route between Baghdad and Aleppo. The Iraqi government said it abandoned the crossing in a strategic move to concentrate forces in Baghdad.
Rabia
Control Iraqi Kurdish pesh merga
Seized June 10
Kurdish pesh merga forces secured this crossing on June 10 immediately following the fall of Mosul.
Seized June 10
Kurdish pesh merga forces secured this crossing on June 10 immediately following the fall of Mosul.
Consequences of Sectarian Violence on Baghdad’s Neighborhoods
Baghdad became highly segregated in the years after the American-led invasion of Iraq. The city’s many mixed neighborhoods hardened into enclaves along religious and ethnic divisions. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Source: Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project
Key
Sunni majority Shiite majority Christian majority Mixed areas
Sunni majority Shiite majority Christian majority Mixed areas
2003: Before the Invasion
Before the American invasion, Baghdad’s major sectarian groups lived mostly side by side in mixed neighborhoods. The city’s Shiite and Sunni populations were roughly equal, according to Juan Cole, a University of Michigan professor and Middle East expert.
2009: Violence Fuels Segregation
Sectarian violence exploded in 2006. Families living in areas where another sect was predominant were threatened with violence if they did not move. By 2009 Shiites were a majority, with Sunnis reduced to about 10 percent to 15 percent of the population.
• Kadhimiya, a historically Shiite neighborhood, is home to a sacred Shiite shrine.
• Adhamiya, a historically Sunni neighborhood, contains the Abu Hanifa Mosque, a Sunni landmark.
• The Green Zone became the heavily fortified center of American operations during the occupation.
• Sadr City was the center of the insurgent Mahdi Army, led by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.
• Huriya was transformed in 2006 when the Mahdi Army pushed out hundreds of families in a brutal spasm of sectarian cleansing.
• More than 8,000 displaced families relocated to Amiriya, the neighborhood where the Sunni Awakening began in Baghdad.
• Adhamiya, a Sunni island in Shiite east Baghdad, was walled and restricted along with other neighborhoods in 2007 for security.
• Neighborhoods east of the Tigris River are generally more densely populated than areas to the west.
2003: Before the Invasion
Before the American invasion, Baghdad’s major sectarian groups lived mostly side by side in mixed neighborhoods. The city’s Shiite and Sunni populations were roughly equal, according to Juan Cole, a University of Michigan professor and Middle East expert.
• Kadhimiya, a historically Shiite neighborhood, is home to a sacred Shiite shrine.
• Adhamiya, a historically Sunni neighborhood, contains the Abu Hanifa Mosque, a Sunni landmark.
• The Green Zone became the heavily fortified center of American operations during the occupation.
• Sadr City was the center of the insurgent Mahdi Army, led by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.
2009: Violence Fuels Segregation
Sectarian violence exploded in 2006. Families living in areas where another sect was predominant were threatened with violence if they did not move. By 2009 Shiites were a majority, with Sunnis reduced to about 10 percent to 15 percent of the population.
• Huriya was transformed in 2006 when the Mahdi Army pushed out hundreds of families in a brutal spasm of sectarian cleansing.
• More than 8,000 displaced families relocated to Amiriya, the neighborhood where the Sunni Awakening began in Baghdad.
• Adhamiya, a Sunni island in Shiite east Baghdad, was walled and restricted along with other neighborhoods in 2007 for security.
• Neighborhoods east of the Tigris River are generally more densely populated than areas to the west.
Source: Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project
Battle for the Baiji Oil Refinery
Witnesses reported that Sunni extremists seized Iraq’s largest oil refinery on June 18 after fighting the Iraqi Army for a week, but officials disputed the reports and the situation remains unclear. Workers were evacuated, and the facility, which provides oil for domestic consumption to 11 Iraqi provinces, including Baghdad, was shut down. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Source: Satellite image by NASA
Smoke plume
at 10:30 a.m.
Wednesday.
ABOUT 115 MILES
TO BAGHDAD
Smoke plume
at 10:30 a.m.
Wednesday.
ABOUT 115 MILES
TO BAGHDAD
Source: Satellite image by NASA
Key 
Towns attacked 
Bomb attacks
Towns attacked Bomb attacks
Miles from
Central Baghdad
Several clashes occurred at the outskirts of Samarra, where Shiite militiamen have been sent to protect the Al-Askari Shrine.
The Iraqi army retook control of Ishaqi and Muqdadiya on June 14. In Muqdadiya, a Shiite militia assisted the government forces.
Militants took control of several neighborhoods in Baquba on June 16 but were repulsed by security officers after a three-hour gun battle. Later, 44 Sunni prisoners were killed in a government-controlled police station.
Falluja and many towns in the western province of Anbar have been under ISIS control for about six months.
At least five bomb attacks occurred in Baghdad, mainly in Shiite areas, in the week after the rebel group took Mosul. The bodies of four young men were found shot on June 17 in a neighborhood controlled by Shiite militiamen.
Key Towns attacked Bomb attacks
Towns attacked Bomb attacks
Miles from
Central Baghdad
Several clashes occurred at the outskirts of Samarra, where Shiite militiamen have been sent to protect the Al-Askari Shrine.
The Iraqi army retook control of Ishaqi and Muqdadiya on June 14. In Muqdadiya, a Shiite militia assisted the government forces.
Militants took control of several neighborhoods in Baquba on June 16 but were repulsed by security officers after a three-hour gun battle. Later, 44 Sunni prisoners were killed in a government-controlled police station.
At least five bomb attacks occurred in Baghdad, mainly in Shiite areas, in the week after the rebel group took Mosul. The bodies of four young men were found shot on June 17 in a neighborhood controlled by Shiite militiamen.
Falluja and many towns in the western province of Anbar have been under ISIS control for about six months.
Ten Years of ISIS Attacks in Iraq
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Sunni militant group that staged a stunning operation to seize Iraq’s second largest city, has been fueling sectarian violence in the region for years. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
Sources: Global Terrorism Database, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Attacks That Could Be Attributed to ISIS
Attacks That Could
Be Attributed to ISIS
2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war.
2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq's most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State of Iraq.
2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad.
2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq.
2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq.
2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war.
2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq's most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State of Iraq.
2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad.
2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq.
2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq.
2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war.
2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq's most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State of Iraq.
2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad.
2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq.
2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq.
| 2004-05 The group emerges as “Al Qaeda in Iraq” following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Its goal is to provoke a civil war. | 2006-07 The group’s February 2006 bombing of one of Iraq's most revered Shiite shrines ignites sectarian violence across the country. After merging with several other Sunni insurgent groups, it changes its name to the Islamic State of Iraq. | 2008-10 I.S.I. claims responsibility for more than 200 attacks, many in densely-populated areas around Baghdad. | 2011-12 The group is relatively quiet for most of 2011, but re-emerges after American troops withdraw from Iraq. | 2013 Seeing new opportunities for growth, I.S.I. enters Syria’s civil war and changes its name to reflect a new aim of establishing an Islamic religious state spanning Iraq and Syria. Its success in Syria bleeds over the border to Iraq. |
Note: Before 2011, less information was available on who was responsible for attacks, so the number of ISIS attacks from 2004 to 2010 may be undercounted.
Sources: Global Terrorism Database, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
A Week of Rapid Advances After Taking Mosul
After sweeping across the porous border from Syria to overrun Mosul, insurgents aligned with the jihadist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria continued to press south down the main north-south highway toward Baghdad. Related Maps and Multimedia » Related article »
June 12
Dhuluiya captured
Attacks in
the days after
Mosul captured
June 11
Parts of Baiji
captured
After capturing Mosul, Tikrit and parts of a refinery in Baiji, insurgents attacked Samarra, where Shiite militias helped pro-government forces. Then, they seized Jalawla and Sadiyah but were forced back by government troops backed by Kurdish forces. They continued their moves south by Ishaki andDujail.
Attacks in
the days after
Mosul captured
June 11
Parts of Baiji
captured
June 11-12
Samarra attacked
June 12
Dhuluiya
captured
June 11-12
Samarra
attacked
June 12
Dhuluiya
captured
June 13
Jalawla and
Sadiyah
attacked
June 14
Ishaki and
Dujail
attacked
June 11
Parts of
Baiji captured
Attacks in
the days after
Mosul captured
After capturing Mosul, Tikrit and parts of a refinery in Baiji, insurgents attacked Samarra, where Shiite militias helped pro-government forces. Then, they seized Jalawla and Sadiyah but were forced back by government troops backed by Kurdish forces. They continued their moves south by Ishaki andDujail.
What the Militants Want: A Caliphate Across Syria and Iraq
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has vowed to establish a caliphate — a unified Islamic government ruled by a caliph, someone considered to be a successor to Muhammad’s political authority — stretching from western Syria across Iraq to the eastern border with Iran. This map shows the boundaries envisioned by ISIS. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Source: “The Islamic State in Iraq Returns to Diyala” by Jessica Lewis, Institute for the Study of War
Source: “The Islamic State in Iraq Returns to Diyala” by Jessica Lewis, Institute for the Study of War
Attacks Follow Sectarian Lines
The insurgents, originating in Syria, moved through Iraq's Sunni-dominated north and west, occupying cities and towns surrendered by Iraqi soldiers and police. They have largely avoided the Kurd-dominated northeast, but have threatened to march on to Baghdad and into the Shiite-dominated areas of the south. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Source: Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project
Predominant group
Sunni Arab
Shiite Arab
Kurd
Source: Dr. M. Izady, Columbia University’s Gulf 2000 project
Iraqi Cities, Then and Now
Many of the Iraqi cities that have been attacked and occupied by militants in recent days were also the sites of battles and other major events during the Iraq War. Related Maps and Multimedia »
Mosul
MosulIraq
Then: American forces took control of Mosul in April 2003. What followed was a period of relative peace until mid-2004 when periodic insurgent attacks flared, resulting in a large-scale battle in November. The death toll reached dozens, including a number of Iraqi soldiers who were publicly beheaded.Related Article »
Now: In perhaps the most stunning recent development, Sunni militants drove Iraqi military forces out of Mosul on June 10, forcing a half-million residents to flee the city. Iraqi soldiers reportedly dropped their weapons and donned civilian clothing to escape ISIS insurgents.
Moises Saman for The New York Times
Falluja
FallujaIraq
Then: Falluja played a pivotal role in the American invasion of Iraq. It was the site of a number of large-scale battles with insurgents. In April 2003, it became a hot bed for controversy when American soldiers opened fire on civilians after claiming they had been shot at. Incessant fighting left the city decimated, leveling a majority of its infrastructure and leaving about half its original population.Related Article »
Now: Sunni militants seized Falluja’s primary municipal buildings on Jan. 3. The takeover came as an early and significant victory for the group, initiating a slew of attacks south of the city.
Max Becherer for The New York Times
Tikrit
TikritIraq
Then: The home of Saddam Hussein, Tikrit became the target of an early American military operation during the Iraq war. Securing it proved cumbersome, however, as insurgents mounted continued attacks on the city for years afterward. On Dec. 14, 2003, Hussein was found hiding in an eight-foot deep hole, just south of Tikrit.Related Article »
Now: Tikrit fell to ISIS insurgents on June 11, clearing a path for them to march on to Baiji, home to one of Iraq’s foremost oil-refining operations. After taking the city in less than a day, militants continued the fight just south, in Samarra.
Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
Samarra
SamarraIraq
Then: Samarra is home to the Askariya shrine, which was bombed in 2006, prompting an extended period of sectarian violence across the country.Related Article »
Now: After an initial attack on June 5, ISIS insurgents have now positioned themselves just miles away from Samarra. It is unclear whether they are capable of capturing the city in the coming days, but the Shiite shrine makes it a volatile target.
Ayman Oghanna for The New York TimesVideos
ISIS’ Dark Oil Trade
Published Dec. 1, 2014
How can ISIS be stopped? Cripple the organization’s oil smuggling trade.
Iraq’s Factions and Their Goals
Published Sept. 22, 2014
A look at the goals of of the three main groups in Iraq — Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish — as the country threatens to split apart along sectarian lines.
ISIS' Goals and Tactics Worldwide
Published Sept. 22, 2014
Background on goals, tactics and the potential long-term threat to the United States from the militant group known as the Islamic State.
Uneasy Allies in the Fight Against ISIS
Published Oct. 23, 2014
The groups fighting for Kobani meet the politics behind Turkey’s decision to assist them in pushing back the Islamic State.
In particular, Ms. McFate said the offensives had depleted and exhausted Iraq’s elite counterterrorism force, known as the Golden Division, which is highly mobile and had long fought on both fronts, in Ramadi and Baiji. The unit, which worked closely for nearly a decade with the American Special Forces, is seen as the most effective government force, although its numbers, compared with the regular Iraqi Army and police forces, are small.
“ISIS tried to stretch the I.S.F. as much as it could to find their breaking point,” Ms. McFate said, using the abbreviation for the Iraqi Security Forces.
When the main Islamic State assault on Ramadi began late on the night of May 14, it employed resources that had been prepared long before and were unleashed in an intense burst of violence that broke the remaining defenders.
As usual, the Islamic State opened the attack with suicide bombers, but in this case on an even bigger scale: The militants sent in 10 bomb-laden vehicles, each believed to have explosive power similar to the truck bomb used in Oklahoma City two decades ago, the senior State Department official said. Entire city blocks were destroyed.
Sleeper cells of Islamic State loyalists then rose up, according to witness accounts, helping the group quickly take control as its fighters advanced into new parts of Ramadi.
Out of fear and exhaustion, local Sunni fighters who had defended the city for nearly a year and a half left in droves last Sunday, taunted by soldiers for abandoning their land.
Staying true to its doctrine of always pushing on multiple fronts, the Islamic State has not stopped with Ramadi: It has also swept into new territory in Syria. In taking Palmyra — a relatively small and remote but strategically located desert city near the country’s geographical center — the group has for the first time seized a Syrian city from government forces, rather than from other insurgents.
It attacked at a time and in a place in which government forces have been increasingly strained, exhausted and unwilling to fight for remote areas. In contrast to the barrage of suicide bombs it used in Ramadi, the Islamic State appears to have won Palmyra with a more ordinary arsenal of foot soldiers, tanks and antiaircraft guns mounted on trucks, relying on its adversary’s weakness and the extreme fear it has managed to instill with its well-publicized atrocities.
It is probably not a coincidence that several days before its main offensive on Palmyra, the Islamic State beheaded dozens of soldiers, government supporters and their families in an outlying village and widely disseminated the images.
The group also chose its target wisely. Palmyra has a relatively small population to provide for and control, but it is a disproportionate prize. It commands access to new oil and gas fields at a time when coalition bombings have targeted many Islamic State oil sources elsewhere; has a critical network of roads; and includes an ancient site that provides endless opportunities for both propaganda and illegal antiquities trafficking.
The offensives have allowed the Islamic State to become even more deeply entrenched in territory whose desert geography and disenchanted local population work in its favor. Particularly in Anbar Province, the group’s Sunni extremist fighters have been more of a native force than an invading one.
After its predecessor, Al Qaeda in Iraq, was driven underground by a long and bloody American military offensive late last decade, its fighters began regrouping among sympathetic Sunni tribes next door in eastern Syria.
The group survived years of battles against Syrian government forces and infighting with jihadist rivals. As it evolved, it engineered a wider hold on swaths of Syria and began plotting its return to power in western Iraq — a move that the group’s founding documents held out as a priority.
The Islamic State aims to build a broad colonial empire across many countries.
OPEN Graphic
That campaign began late in 2013 and led to the takeover of the town of Falluja and other corners of Anbar. Then, in June 2014, the Islamic State made its biggest leaps into Iraq, suddenly seizing Mosul, the northern and Sunni-predominant city that is Iraq’s second largest, and driving all the way south to Tikrit.
In recent months, the group has been pushed back from some territories it seized last summer. These include cities and towns in the north near the autonomous Kurdish region and in eastern Diyala Province. In Syria, the Islamic State has pulled back in recent days from the northern parts of Homs Province, where it has had to compete with other groups and did not win as many locals to its side as it has in eastern Syria.
“ISIS overextended itself and is getting pushed back to areas where they can control more effectively,” said Brian Fishman, a counterterrorism analyst at the New America Foundation, who has spent years studying Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Islamic State. “The historical homeland for this organization is Falluja, Ramadi, Anbar and Mosul.”
With the victory in Ramadi, the Islamic State claimed the last major center of the Sunni Arab heartland and, with the advance into Palmyra, has expanded it.
Hassan Hassan, an author of “ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror,” saw the shift as a particular challenge to the group’s enemies. “It’s really hard to conquer these areas or retake them, because in the local population there’s almost no resistance to the group here.”
As it has consolidated, the Islamic State has been ruthless about beating down Sunni tribes who have opposed it, publicizing its mass slaughters of dissidents. Among the residents who have not actively opposed the group, it has also been skillful in building up its legitimacy as a local ruling force by tapping into Sunni grievances against the Shiite government in Baghdad and the Alawite government in Damascus.
“The only solution for the situation now is national reconciliation governments in both countries, Iraq and Syria, which is impossible now,” said Jalal Zein al-Din, a Syrian journalist who is part of an antigovernment news agency that operates partly in Islamic State territory. “So I.S. is going to remain in the region, a state from Raqqa to Mosul.”
In many ways, the group is staying true to a vision, laid out in documents years ago, of how it would carve out and govern a caliphate, or Islamic State. Even as it differed from Al Qaeda in its desire to hold territory, it envisioned itself as being at perpetual war with its surrounding enemies and saw its turf more as an ever-shifting zone of control rather than a place with boundaries.
In his studies of the group, Mr. Fishman has coined a term for what it has become: a “governmental amoeba.”
“They conceptualize the caliphate as the people living on territory the caliphate controls, rather than a fixed geography,” he said, adding, “What matters to them is commitment to the caliph.”
Indeed, Ramadi was coveted in part because it had taken on great symbolic value as a place where some Sunni tribes were holding out in resistance against the Islamic State. Now, the group again has the momentum, and seems more deeply entrenched than it did even before the setbacks in Kobani and Tikrit.
As with some American officials, Ms. McFate, the analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, saw Tikrit, in particular, as a devastating loss that had put the group on its heels. “I thought they had lost the capability to do what they just did,” she said. “The tide of the war really looked like it had shifted away from ISIS’s terms.”
Things are different now, she conceded.
“Ramadi was a bigger loss for us,” she said, referring to the United States coalition and its Iraqi partners, “than Tikrit was a loss to ISIS.”
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Fritz Lang’s ‘Metropolis’ (screenshot)
BY: John D. Davidson
Perhaps no poem captures the cultural and spiritual crisis facing the West in the aftermath of World War I better than “The Second Coming.” Although it is often tossed around thoughtlessly in modern pop culture, Yeats’s short poem evokes not only the anxiety of modernity—“the falcon cannot hear the falconer / Things fall apart”—but also the sense that something terrible and inevitable is emerging:
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
Something is coming, almost without a will of its own, as if foreordained, like the Second Coming of Christ—but not to bring redemption. Yeats wrote the poem in 1919, and it is difficult today to read the poem’s famous last lines, “And what rough beast, its hour come round at last / Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?” without a imposed sense of concrete foreboding: another war is coming, Hitler and Stalin are coming, the Holocaust and the gulags are coming.
Of course, “The Second Coming” is about more than regimes and ideologies. World War I killed off a generation of European men, toppled four empires, and redrew the maps of Europe and the Middle East—but it also shattered Europe’s confidence as a cultural force. The scale of the destruction unleashed on the Western front undermined faith in reason and the confident morality that had sustained European civilization for centuries. The horrors of the trenches, where industrialized warfare reduced men to passive victims of machines that rained murder from miles away, weakened the idea of the individual hero.
Even so, the anxiety Yeats evokes in “The Second Coming” had been building since long before the war. In 1917, the German poet and Dadaist Hugo Ball declared in his poem “Kandinsky”—“God is dead. A world has collapsed. I am dynamite. World history has broken into two halves. There is a time before me. And a time after me.… An era collapses. A thousand-year culture collapses… The world reveals itself to be a blind battle of forces unbound.” Here, Ball is describing the world prior to 1914. He’s not describing the Western Front, but the industrialization of modern cities.
It is fitting that Philipp Blom makes use of Ball’s poem in his new book Fracture,a chronicle of cultural change in the West during the interwar period. The mention comes early in the book, when Blom restates a thesis he laid out in a previous book about the pre-war years: the spiritual anxiety and sense of rupture in the West were present long before 1914. Writes Blom: “Even at the turn of the twentieth century, metropolitan areas had already become battlegrounds of modernity, about which [Ball] could remark: ‘The world became monstrous, uncanny, the relationship with reason and convention, the yardstick vanished… The science of electrons caused a strange vibration in all surfaces, lines and forms.’”
Far from causing this sense of estrangement and dislocation, Blom argues the outbreak of war offered a promise of relief from it. The war was a chance for individual men, whom the industrialized city had reduced to mere cogs in a machine, to reclaim their honor by performing courageous deeds on the battlefield. Romantic ideals of patriotism and honor could mean something again. Official propaganda of course played on these hopes and fears, but could not change the reality of what soldiers at the front experienced. Far from offering relief from the indifference of the modern city, industrialized warfare intensified the sense that men were cogs and, even worse, that they no could no longer control the machines they had invented.
Post-war art reflected this realization. In Metropolis (1927), Fritz Lang explores the fear that soulless technology would eventually rule society, a fear that Blom rightly notes was common among German right-wing thinkers and politicians. In the film, set “some hundred years in the future,” society is split between the haves and have-nots. The former live on the highest levels of a futurist city of multilevel roads and planes floating between skyscrapers, the latter as slaves in dim catacombs, operating the giant machines that run the city.
Eventually the workers, led by the ruthless dictator’s son, rise up and revolt. Blom writes:
The oppressed workers were waiting for a leader, a Führer, to rise up against the injustice of their lot… The public is invited to sympathize with their quest and with the idea that only a charismatic figure can save the day and rescue the people from the dictatorship of a decadent elite.
The film captures the ambivalence toward industrialization and modernity that many Europeans felt. That unease would give rise to different artistic movements across the continent, from Bauhaus in Germany to the surrealists in Paris. For all their heterogeneity, these movements generally arose as an aesthetic rejection of bourgeois morality and traditions. Yet, as Blom ably chronicles, the rejection would inexorably become political, as in the case of André Breton and the Surrealists. A medical intern during the war and an assistant doctor in a psychiatric ward after it, Breton published hisSurrealist Manifesto in 1924. Breton’s surrealism was essentially a rejection of bourgeois reality and artistic realism. “What the world needed, he thought, was a disciplined movement,” writes Blom, “a collective assault on bourgeois culture in an effort to subvert and finally topple it altogether.”
It should come as no surprise that by 1925 Breton would declare: “Communism alone among organized systems permits the accomplishment of the greatest social transformation. Good or mediocre in itself, defensible or not from a moral point of view, how can we forget its role as the instrument by which ancient buildings are destroyed?” This pattern was repeated throughout Europe during the interwar years. Perversely, the first World War spurred many Europeans like Breton to seek a way to use the violence it had unleashed to transform liberal society.
Blom’s fine book serves as useful guide to this period. It is marred only by his epilogue, in which he oddly conflates Europe’s turn toward totalitarian ideologies in the 1920s and 30s with contemporary America’s faith in markets. Blom claims, contrary to the best evidence, that the 2008-09 recession was a result of market failure, which in turn shattered our collective faith in capitalism: “The idea of the infallible market has become a travesty, and the gospel of growth and the myth of meritocracy have collapsed in the minds of many of our contemporaries.”
He’s better when he sticks to historical analysis. Blom provides an unsettling account of how the surrealists, the Dadaists, the communists, and the fascists rejected the Enlightenment and re-shaped society according to ideology, with terrifying results, and reminds us to be discerning about how political ideology can undermine a free culture.
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· · · · ·
Published time: May 24, 2015 09:23
image from <a href="http://www.wearealwayslistening.com" rel="nofollow">www.wearealwayslistening.com</a>
A group of anti-NSA pranksters have planted recording devices in public places across New York, saying that they are “gathering information to help win the war on terror.”
The devices can be found everywhere in New York – in cafes, under benches, in shops, restaurants and bars.
“Eavesdropping on the population has revealed many saying, ‘I’m not doing anything wrong so who cares if the NSA tracks what I say and do?’” the group, dubbed “We Are Always Listening,”wrote on its website.
According to anti-NSA activists, the citizens “don’t seem to mind this monitoring.”
“[So] we’re hiding recorders in public places in hopes of gathering information to help win the war on terror. We've started with NYC as a pilot program, but hope to roll the initiative out all across The Homeland.”
The pranksters say they are “declassifying excerpts from the recordings and highlighting” where some devices are located “for greater transparency.” Each recording on the website has the location, terrorism status and device status.
The recordings are rather mundane and reveal everything from cheating to conversations with personal coaches and job interviews.
The group says it is listening, “as you cut up friends behind their backs.” The recording on their website shows “Asians belittling other Asians for sounding too Asian.”
The group said it is even listening to people’s very intimate moments, such as when they talk about sexual encounters, or the moments you “are scheming.” One conversation revealed deception, and in the terrorism status the activists ironically wrote: “Plot detected, though not terrorist in nature.”
The recording devices are still in place at Building on Bond in Brooklyn and Cafe Orlin and Cafe Mogador in Manhattan, according to the group’s website.
Two representatives of the group told Mashable that they heard “people discuss their bank accounts, their passwords to those banks accounts."
"Most mundane conversations can reveal sexuality, if you're looking for a new job, where you plan to travel, how much money you make and your patterns of behavior. Those are all of great interest to organizations like the NSA," the activists say.
The activists say their organization operates “independently from the NSA.”
"We don't go into these establishments and ask permission to keep them safe. That's not how the NSA operates. We want to operate as close to the NSA as possible."
According to the group, the NSA doesn’t know about its unofficial counterpart in New York.
"We haven't had an email or phone call exchange [with the NSA] yet. Based on the actions that they take, we think they'd approve.”
The group hopes eventually ”that the NSA will adopt the We Are Always Listening project and make it a fully funded and functional arm of the NSA,” another representative of the organization told The Guardian.
“We hope that we’re lauded and applauded for helping to keep the country safe,” the source said.“Even the most mundane conversations, as the NSA will tell you, are of vital importance,” he said, adding they don’t release “anybody’s first and last names”.
He said that if it turns out that it’s illegal, “we’ll put a full stop to it. We’ll continue to keep the country safe from terror until then.”
The group’s representative told the paper that “We Are Always Listening” also has plans to start the surveillance of people in Germany, just like the real NSA.
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Arabic-language newspaper Rai al-Youm reported on Saturday that Israel has offered Saudi Arabia to use its Iron Dome anti-rocket technology.
The offer was made to the Kingdom to defend its border with Yemen that has come under numerous rocket attacks.
According to the report, the offer was made last week during meetings in Amman between the Saudis and the US ambassador to Jordan. A spokesman for the Jordanian government said that he was not aware of a meeting between the Saudis and the Israelis in Amman, the news outlet reported.
Saudi Arabia reportedly rejected the offer, according to the London based newspaper.
On Thursday and Friday cross border rocket attacks launched from inside Yemen killed two people in southern Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia's state news agency SPA reported on Friday.
SPA quoted a Civil Defense official in the southwestern province of Jizan as saying that a child was killed and three other children were wounded on Friday in the al-Tawal region.
A rocket attack on Thursday killed one citizen and wounded two others in al Hosn village, the agency reported earlier.
On Friday, Saudi-led coalition warplanes pounded Houthi-held military outposts on the hills overlooking the Yemeni capital Sanaa, as the eight-week military offensive aimed at ousting the rebels intensified over the weekend.
The airstrikes came as two Shi'ite mosques, one in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia and the other in Sanaa, were targeted by explosive devices and suicide bombers during Friday prayers.
Coalition fighter jets also targeted the presidential compound in the capital on Friday, where the Shi'ite rebels seized control in September.
The Saudi-led coalition of Sunni Arab nations intervened in Yemen's civil war on March 26 with an all out air assault to force the Iran-allied Houthis to retreat from territories they have seized since last year, and restore the power of exiled Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Friday's violence followed overnight airstrikes that targeted Houthi controlled military outposts of the notorious Republican Guard troops in the capital.
At least four missiles hit one of the Guard's training camps in Sanaa late Thursday (May 21) night.
The latest spike in violence comes ahead of UN sponsored Yemen peace talks to be held in Geneva on May 28.
The offer was made to the Kingdom to defend its border with Yemen that has come under numerous rocket attacks.
According to the report, the offer was made last week during meetings in Amman between the Saudis and the US ambassador to Jordan. A spokesman for the Jordanian government said that he was not aware of a meeting between the Saudis and the Israelis in Amman, the news outlet reported.
Saudi Arabia reportedly rejected the offer, according to the London based newspaper.
On Thursday and Friday cross border rocket attacks launched from inside Yemen killed two people in southern Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia's state news agency SPA reported on Friday.
SPA quoted a Civil Defense official in the southwestern province of Jizan as saying that a child was killed and three other children were wounded on Friday in the al-Tawal region.
A rocket attack on Thursday killed one citizen and wounded two others in al Hosn village, the agency reported earlier.
On Friday, Saudi-led coalition warplanes pounded Houthi-held military outposts on the hills overlooking the Yemeni capital Sanaa, as the eight-week military offensive aimed at ousting the rebels intensified over the weekend.
The airstrikes came as two Shi'ite mosques, one in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia and the other in Sanaa, were targeted by explosive devices and suicide bombers during Friday prayers.
Coalition fighter jets also targeted the presidential compound in the capital on Friday, where the Shi'ite rebels seized control in September.
The Saudi-led coalition of Sunni Arab nations intervened in Yemen's civil war on March 26 with an all out air assault to force the Iran-allied Houthis to retreat from territories they have seized since last year, and restore the power of exiled Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Friday's violence followed overnight airstrikes that targeted Houthi controlled military outposts of the notorious Republican Guard troops in the capital.
At least four missiles hit one of the Guard's training camps in Sanaa late Thursday (May 21) night.
The latest spike in violence comes ahead of UN sponsored Yemen peace talks to be held in Geneva on May 28.
Speaking to cadets at the U.S. Coast Guard this week, President Obama said that those who deny global warming are putting America at risk. Not only that, to ignore it would be a “dereliction of duty.”
"Denying it or refusing to deal with it undermines our national security,” he went on. “We need to act and we need to act now."
Talk about awkward timing:
The Central Intelligence Agency is shutting down a research program that offered classified data to scientists to examine the link between climate change and global security threats.A CIA spokesman confirmed that the agency had ended its MEDEA program, a 1990s-era intelligence program restarted in 2010 under President Obama. The collaboration gave scientists access to intelligence assets like satellite data to study climate change and inform on how its impacts could inflame conflicts.CIA spokesman Ryan Whaylen said "these projects have been completed and CIA will employ these research results and engage external experts as it continues to evaluate the national security implications of climate change." […]The research effort, as with most environmental work, has drawn the ire of congressional Republicans. Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming has particularly been critical of the intelligence agency's environmental work, saying in 2010 that "should be focused on monitoring terrorists in caves, not polar bears on icebergs."And generally, Republicans have been scornful of the defense community's work on climate change, saying that the administration is ignoring the threat of terrorism and global instability in favor of environmental goals.
Of course Republicans have been scornful.
The week Obama gave that speech Ramadi had just fallen to ISIS, North Korea announced it could make nuclear weapons small enough to place on missiles, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad isreportedly using chemical weapons against his own people again. Sen. James Inhofe was right when he said Obama is “disconnected from reality.”
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A 1905 postcard showing Odessa’s 142-meter (466-foot) Potemkin Stairs, which lead down to the harbor and were completed in 1841. (Detroit Publishing Company)
Odessa has always been unique among Ukraine's cities. Located on the Black Sea coast, Odessa was founded in 1794 by Catherine the Great to be the Russian Empire's premier warm-water port. Before it became Odessa, the area was sparsely populated and occupied by an Ottoman fortress known as Khadjibey. Russia took this fortress and its environs in 1789 during an era of expansion and incorporated it into Novorossiya — Catherine the Great's New Russia, which stretched from Transdniestria in the west to Mariupol in the east.
A view out from Odessa over the Black Sea with the city's port in the background. (EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY/Stratfor)
From the start Odessa has been a cosmopolitan city. Russian troops commanded by Spanish mercenary Maj. Gen. Jose de Ribas seized the city from the Ottomans. Today, the city's main thoroughfare, Deribasivska Street, bears his name. Catherine the Great was advised to designate Odessa the capital of Novorossiya by Dutch engineer Franz do Voland. Her successor, Czar Alexander I, appointed the French Duke de Richelieu to be Odessa's governor in 1803. Richelieu oversaw the beginning of the city's explosive growth and its evolution into one of Eastern Europe's prime commercial centers. During this period, the city's commercial boom and relatively tolerant atmosphere attracted immigrants from all over Europe, including Russians, Turks, Poles and Jews.
This unique mix of different religious and ethnic communities partly insulated Odessa from the growing trend toward nationalism that swept through Central and Eastern Europe in the 19th century. Such a diverse mix of groups prevented a single nationalist movement from taking hold — least of all a Ukrainian one. However, the city experienced a series of anti-Jewish pogroms, most notably in 1905. During World War II, the Nazis killed 80 percent of the Jews in the city and surrounding region. The post-war years led to ethnic displacement that further stripped Odessa of its diverse minority populations. Today, most of the city's inhabitants are either Ukrainian or Russian.
Odessa's iconic opera house on Tchaikovsky Street. (EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY/Stratfor)
In spite of these changes, the city still bears the marks of its cosmopolitan past. Odessa's opera house, one of Europe's most renowned, was constructed in a neo-Renaissance style with an Italian baroque facade. Near the Orthodox Church of Saint Panteleimon stands the green dome of the Al-Salam mosque. Odessa's thoroughfares include Jewish Street, Greek Street and Bulgarian Street. There is also a street named after iconic Russian poet Alexander Pushkin — the city was one of his favorite sources of inspiration. The crowds walking these streets, while not as diverse as those of the nineteenth century, are still more varied than those of Ukraine's other cities. I spotted numerous people who were not ethnically Slavic and occasionally passed women in headscarves. While riding the train into the city, I even spoke with one man who was half-Chilean, half-Iranian but spoke fluent Russian after having worked in Odessa as a surgeon for a decade.
Submerged Divisions
Odessa's unique character within Ukraine seems to have influenced local attitudes toward the eastern conflict between the government and pro-Russia separatists. Several people I met emphasized Odessa's neutrality. They said they just want to be left to their business and do not want to involve themselves in "the rest of the country's mess." In the western city of Lviv, eastern Kharkiv and the capital, Kiev, I saw numerous yellow and blue Ukrainian flags. Many of Odessa's buildings and souvenir stands, however, were adorned with red, white and yellow — the colors of the city's flag.
A memorial outside of Odessa's Trade Unions House to commemorate the May 2014 fire. (EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY/Stratfor)
Despite this, Odessa has not been entirely unaffected by the Ukraine conflict. In 2014, the city was the site of one of the nation's most violent episodes since the EuroMaidan protests ended. On May 2, pro-Ukraine and pro-Russia demonstrators clashed near the Trade Union building in the center of the city. The fighting left 50 people dead and over 200 injured. Most of the casualties occurred when a group of pro-Russia protesters were forced into a building that was then set on fire by the opposition.
At the time of the May 2014 fighting, it was unclear whether the city would remain part of Ukraine or separate along with Donetsk and Luhansk. In time, Kiev managed to snuff out Odessa's separatist movement, though sporadic bombings by pro-Russia elements continue in the city. The violent episode exposed the submerged divisions within the city that endure to this day. Nearly a year after the fire I visited the Trade Union to find the building, with fire-damaged walls and broken windows, shuttered. People gathered around a memorial outside, covered in photos and flowers, to pay their respects. One man placed 100 hryvnias (around $5) in a donation bucket for victims' families, while two elderly women nearby spoke angrily of hooligans who had vandalized the memorial. They complained that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had done nothing about the defacement, and said Ukrainian news was full of lies as they saw "no sign of the government" in Odessa.
The effects of Ukraine's weak economy were apparent as I walked through the city. I saw many beggars — several of whom were old women. Odessa feels these effects in particular, because trade with Russia has fallen since the beginning of the conflict. Locals complained of stagnant wages on account of the falling currency coupled with high inflation. Pro-Russia terrorist attacks have compounded Odessa's problems with two explosions occurring in the past few days alone. Accordingly, with military personnel and police prowling the city, there is a large Ukrainian security force presence.
Into Transdniestria
Odessa is in close proximity to Russian military personnel stationed not only in Crimea but also in the nearby Moldovan breakaway territory of Transdniestria. The territory's 1990 declaration of independence has not been officially recognized by any other country, but Russia backs the government with both military and economic support. Over 1,000 Russian troops are currently stationed in Transdniestria.
The capital of the breakaway territory, Tiraspol, is only 100 kilometers (62 miles) away. A short trip by mini-bus from Odessa's central bus station takes you to Khuchurgan, Ukraine, which is right on the border. The route winds through familiar green and brown farmland, dotted with the occasional village. Unlike other parts of Ukraine, however, there's not a single blue and yellow flag.
At the border I expected to encounter difficulties and feared my U.S. passport would raise suspicion. I turned out to be wrong. The Ukrainian customs officials waved me through after briefly glancing at my papers. During the short walk across the no-mans-land between the two checkpoints, I saw a large sign in Russian for the "Pridnestrovskaya Moldavskaya Respublika" flanked by a red and green Transdniestrian flag with its yellow sickle and hammer. Nearby hung a banner commemorating the 70th anniversary of Victory Day. Once at the Transdniestrian customs station I was only asked to fill in a small visa application, which was then processed on the spot without a fee. The young official asked me a number of questions: How long do you plan to stay? Where do you live? What do you do? Where were you for Victory Day? How was it there? He asked all of these politely, especially after he noticed that I had been born in Moscow. Within 15 minutes, I had entered Transdniestria without any issues.
Once over the border, I bought a ticket for another mini-bus to Tiraspol. I paid in Ukrainian currency but received Transdniestrian rubles in change. The landscape on the ride to the capital was nearly identical to that of Ukraine. The road itself, however, was quite different. Unlike the Ukrainian side of the border, this road was well paved, without potholes, and its dividing lines were clearly marked. Along the way I passed a billboard of the breakaway republic's leader Yevgeny Shevchuk wishing everyone in Transdniestria a happy Victory Day.
The Dom Sovetov, or "House of Soviets," in Transdniestria’s capital of Tiraspol. (EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY/Stratfor)
Once the mini-bus entered Tiraspol, the contrast with Ukraine became clear. I suddenly felt as if I had been transported back to before the fall of the Soviet Union. The city's architecture was entirely Soviet. I passed concrete apartment blocs, hammer-and-sickle adorned administration buildings and sprawling parks filled with monuments, including a tank near Suvarov Square. Walking along the central boulevard of October 25th Street, almost every building had a sign commemorating Victory Day, and Russian flags hung side by side with Transdniestrian flags above the streets. At the Dom Sovetov, or "House of the Soviets," a large bust of Vladimir Lenin stood in front of the building, flanked once again by Russian and Transdniestrian flags.
A view of Tiraspol's main boulevard. (EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY/Stratfor)
There were no beggars on the streets of Tiraspol. This was surprising because Transdniestria has had economic trouble since Ukraine clamped down on cross-border trade. Also contrasting with Ukraine was the conspicuous absence of a large security presence, though an occasional lone soldier could be seen in the city's streets. One soldier, a young man no older than 20, boarded one of the mini-buses. It occurred to me that, other than a slight difference in uniform color, there was no visible difference between him and the young troops in Odessa. Yet being born just a few dozen kilometers away places them on opposing sides of a deep conflict with major regional reverberations.
It must be remembered that Transdniestria and Odessa were both originally part of Catherine the Great's Novorossiya. Now this area is split between various states in contention and Novorossiya has taken on a new meaning: Separatism, militancy and political polarization. Though the actual fighting takes place a few hundred kilometers away on Nororossiya's eastern edge, the relative calm out west remains uneasy.
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