"With Russia's foreign debt of $570 billion exceeding its $157 billion in liquid reserves by more than three times, Russia faces the danger of bankruptcy, especially with Western financial sanctions cutting off Russia's access to international funding." - Russia: A major political turning point is coming Wednesday July 29th, 2015 at 1:02 PM
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Russia's newest anti-NGO law, under which the National Endowment for Democracy on Tuesday was declared an "undesirable organization" prohibited from operating in Russia, is the latest evidence that the regime of President Vladimir Putin faces a worsening crisis of political legitimacy.
Putin may claim that the National Endowment for Democracy and other nongovernmental organizations are "a threat to Russia's basic constitutional order," and his labeling them as dangerous enemies, along with the Russian democrats he calls "national traitors," is his typical way of rallying political support by appealing to nationalist fears and hostilities.
But it is the regime itself that has been undermining Russia's constitutional order through repression, corruption and international aggression; and the pressures are now building toward what many in Russia believe is a major political turning point.
Putin rose to power in 1999 on a wave of anti-Chechen hysteria, but it was steady economic growth over the next decade fueled by rising oil prices that accounted for his popularity. Now that growth has come to a screeching halt, and the gross domestic product could decline by as much as 8 percent this year, according to economist Anders Aslund.
The economic crisis is beginning to be felt at the local level. Real wages fell by 9 percent in the first quarter of 2015, and social spending on health and pensions has been cut sharply, even as military spending has continued to increase. With Russia's foreign debt of $570 billion exceeding its $157 billion in liquid reserves by more than three times, Russia faces the danger of bankruptcy, especially with Western financial sanctions cutting off Russia's access to international funding.
The crisis's political repercussions could grow because of rampant elite corruption, which is essential to the functioning of Russia's system of power. An example was the corruption surrounding the Sochi Olympics that was the subject of an extensive report by Boris Nemtsov, the opposition leader who was murdered in February just steps from the Kremlin.
According to Nemtsov, the majority of construction contracts were awarded to companies with ties to Putin, and all were dramatically inflated to several times the international average for similar projects. Karen Dawisha, a leading expert on elite corruption in Russia, estimates Putin's worth, conservatively, at $40 billion.
REUTERS/Sergei KarpukhinRussian S-400 Triumph medium-range and long-range surface-to-air missile systems drive during the Victory Day parade at Red Square in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2015.
In addition to economic crisis and elite corruption, Russia's war in Ukraine is a third factor undermining the regime's political legitimacy. Even without meaningful assistance from the United States and Europe, the Ukrainians have fought the Russians to a standstill in eastern Ukraine, and this is a far cry from the decisive victory that Putin predicted when he annexed Crimea last year. Putin has tried to hide the casualties Russia has suffered in the conflict, knowing that the war does not enjoy widespread popular support. He also knows from Russia's experience in Afghanistan and other conflicts in Russian history that failure in war could threaten the regime's survival.
The regime's fear over its own lack of political legitimacy is apparent in the lengths to which it is going to prevent any electoral competition. Not only has Russia moved up the date of 2016 national parliamentary elections , making it more difficult for the opposition to challenge incumbent officeholders, but also it is cracking down on three regional parliamentary campaigns in which a coalition of democratic opposition parties are trying to win seats in elections to be held in September.
Thomson ReutersRussian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during a meeting with senior officers who attained higher ranks at the Kremlin in Moscow
In Novosibirsk, three opposition activists are on a hunger strike protesting authorities' decision to exclude them from the ballot. In Kostroma, the opposition campaign manager is in jail and faces politically-motivated criminal charges.
These efforts to deny the opposition a chance to win a handful of seats in Russia's equivalent of a state legislature demonstrate that the regime sees any alternative to its own politics as a serious threat that must be eliminated.
This is the context in which Russia has passed the law prohibiting Russian democrats from getting any international assistance to promote freedom of expression, the rule of law and a democratic political system. Significantly, democrats have not backed down. They have not been deterred by the criminal penalties contained in the "foreign agents" law and other repressive laws.
They know that these laws contradict international law, which allows for such aid, and that the laws are meant to block a better future for Russia. They are not even frightened by the threat of being killed, which has already been the fate of Nemtsov and other Russian democrats.
The least the United States and other Western democracies can do is to continue to provide moral and political solidarity to such brave people. It serves not just their interests but our own as well.
Read the original article on The Washington Post. Copyright 2015. Follow The Washington Post onTwitter.
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The Islamic State group poses a more challenging terror threat within the U.S. than al-Qaida because it’s so effective at recruiting impressionable and “troubled souls” through social media, the director of the FBI told an Aspen audience Wednesday night.
Director James Comey credited the U.S. military with “significantly diminishing” threats within America by killing Mushin al Fadhli in a targeted strike in Syria earlier this month. He was the leader of the Khorasan Group of al-Qaida, which was allegedly plotting attacks on the West.
But Comey said ISIS “is not your parents’ al-Qaida. It’s a very different model.” He referred to the terror network by one of its other names, ISIL. It’s also referred to as the Islamic State.
“What worries me most is that ISIL’s investment in social media — which has been blossoming in the last six to eight weeks in particular — will cause a significant increase in the number of incidents that we will see,” Comey said. “That’s what I worry about all day long.”
He said ISIL has invested major efforts in the past year in “pushing a message of poison” on social media. They are urging followers to join them in Syria and Iraq, and if that’s not possible they urge people “to kill where you are.”
Followers of al-Qaida have to seek out information on the Internet, make contact via email and see if there was a response, Comey said. “ISIL is changing that model entirely because ISIL is buzzing on your hip,” he continued, referring to smartphones. It’s pushing its message “all day long” on Twitter.
“If you want to talk to a terrorist, they’re right there on Twitter Direct Messaging for you to communicate with,” Comey said. That message resonates with troubled souls, he said. The FBI’s job is to locate the people in the 50 states that are receptive to the ISIL message and stop them from committing domestic terrorism.
He said “dozens” of U.S. citizens between ages 18 to 62 have traveled to the Middle East to join ISIL. “We have a reasonable handle on it,” he said.
Comey made his comments in a joint presentation through the Hurst Lecture Series and Aspen Security Forum at the Aspen Institute. He was questioned by veteran CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer before a sold-out crowd at the Greenwald Pavilion.
Comey dodged a lot of Blitzer’s questions on a variety of terror topics, saying he couldn’t offer the kind of details being sought. But Comey stressed how savvy ISIL is on social media and how the terror organization is taking advantage of encrypted communication, also known as the dark side.
“ISIL’s M.O. is to broadcast on Twitter, get people to follow them, then move them to Twitter Direct Messaging” to evaluate if they are a legitimate recruit, he said. “Then they’ll move them to an encrypted mobile-messaging app so they go dark to us.”
The ISIL tweeters in Syria have 21,000 English language followers, according to Comey. Hundreds of people, and probably more like in the thousands, are in the United States, he said. The FBI and its partners in federal and local governments have the job of figuring out who they are and if they are in the stage of consuming or acting.
The FBI can get court-approved access to Twitter exchanges, but not to encrypted communication, Comey said. Even when the FBI demonstrates probable cause and gets a judicial order to intercept that communication, it cannot break the encryption for technological reasons, according to Comey.
“We don’t have the ability to break the strong encryption,” he said.
He said the situation poses a dilemma. Everybody supports safety and privacy on the Internet, but everybody also expects public safety. “We have to, as a country, figure out how to solve this,” he said. “We need judges’ orders to be complied with.”
“Smart people” in government and the software companies should be able to figure out how to comply when probable cause is demonstrated, without compromising the privacy of the vast majority of Americans, he said.
Comey said the FBI hasn’t determined yet if Muhammad Youssef Abdelazeez was influenced by ISIL or al-Qaida. Abdelazeez is accused of killing four U.S. Marines and a Navy sailor, when he opened fire on two military centers in Chattanooga, Tennessee, earlier this month. He was killed during a shootout.
The Aspen Security Forum will examine leading national security issues through Saturday.
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(CNN)European football chief Michel Platini will stand for FIFA's presidency, he announced Wednesday.
The former France captain -- who is also a vice-president in FIFA's Executive Committee -- is likely to be a leading candidate to replace his rival Sepp Blatter in the February 26 election.
"This was a very personal, carefully considered decision, one in which I weighed up the future of football alongside my own future," said the 60-year-old, as he confirmed his intention to run in a letter to all 209 member associations of world football's governing body.
"There are times in life when you have to take your destiny into your own hands. I am at one of those decisive moments, at a juncture in my life and in events that are shaping the future of FIFA," added the UEFA president.
Football's world governing has recently been embroiled in scandal after the United States indicted 14 people, including nine top FIFA officials, on corruption charges. Swiss authorities simultaneously opened a separate investigation into how the 2018 and 2022 World Cups were awarded.
In his confirmation letter, Platini made reference to the challenges FIFA is facing.
"During this last half-century or so, FIFA has only had two presidents. This extreme stability is something of a paradox in a world that has experienced radical upheavals and in a sport that has undergone considerable economic change," he said.
"However, recent events force the supreme governing body of world football to turn over a new leaf and rethink its governance."
Platini is likely to be installed as the early favorite in the race, but the perception that the winning World Cup bids by Russia and Qatar for the next two tournaments are tainted may not bode well for the Frenchman, according to football insiders.
"It'd be a bloody disaster," football author and journalist Philippe Auclair, who has documented Platini's ties to the Qatari government in the past, told CNN.
In particular, Auclair has been critical of Platini's endorsement for Qatar's World Cup 2022 bid, which beat presentations from the U.S., Australia, Japan and South Korea to win the Middle East's first staging of soccer's most prestigious event.
Both 2018 host Russia and Qatar have always publicly denied any wrongdoing with regards to the bidding processes of the two tournaments.
Following Qatar's securing of the World Cup -- and the widespread criticism that followed -- Platini suggested moving the games to winter months and sharing the tournament with other Gulf countries, despite the proposals never being part of the emirate's elaborate bid.
When challenged about whether these post-vote tweaks were fair to Qatar's bidding rivals, Platini shrugged off the thought.
"In 12 years, everybody will be happy to have a very well-organized World Cup and not remember what's happened before," he told reporters in January 2011.
Platini's fellow French footballing legend Eric Cantona has been equally critical of his compatriot.
"Speaking of Platini, it's about settling scores, a political war," he told French newspaper Le Parisien last year.
"He wants to be FIFA president, Blatter wants to remain it. Blatter has started to say, 'Qatar, it's true it's a bad idea, but it was Platini's idea,'" Cantona said.
"Platini was a great player, he's a great man of football, but today, he's a politician just like the rest.
"On the other hand, it would be a good thing that -- as they are all politicians -- a former player be elected head of FIFA. When you have to choose between the plague and cholera, it's better to get it from a doctor."
However, former Manchester United chief executive David Gill provided a more positive appraisal of Platini's leadership skills.
"My own personal view is that Michel has done a first-class job at UEFA," the Englishman recently told Sky Sports.
"I have seen what he has done for UEFA from the outside when I was at Manchester United and then having been on the executive committee of UEFA," added Gill, who did not take up his appointment as a FIFA vice-president this year until after Blatter announced in June he would stand down.
Platini has had a fractious relationship with former mentor and ally Blatter.
The two were seen as close until Platini pushed for Blatter to step down ahead of the most recent elections.
"I told Sepp Blatter to leave, to step down, because he is giving FIFA a terrible image," Platini told reporters in May.
"It's not easy to tell a friend that he must leave but that is the way history is going. I'm saying this with sadness, with tears in my eyes. There have been too many scandals."
Instead, Platini endorsed Blatter's sole opponent Prince Ali bin al-Hussein of Jordan, who dropped out after losing the first round of voting.
Blatter served just a week of his fifth term as president before dramatically announcing he would step aside in the wake of further implications of FIFA officials, who face extradition to the U.S.
Platini had a long and storied career in both club and world football, winning the Ballon d'Or player of the year three times from 1983-1985.
As the leading goalscorer for Juventus, the Italian club won two league titles and two European Cups, while France won the 1984 European Championship under his captaincy.
He began his administrative career in world football shortly after his retirement in 1987, serving in the UEFA technical board a year later while also assuming coaching duties for the French national team.
Platini played a part in securing France's 1998 World Cup bid -- a tournament Les Bleus went on to win. Platini joined the FIFA Executive Committee in 2002 and took over as UEFA president in 2007.
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MOSCOW — Vladimir Putin and Sepp Blatter just can’t stop praising each other.
The Russian president, speaking with Swiss TV on Monday, said the embattled head of FIFA deserves a Nobel Prize for his work.
Two days after Putin and Blatter hosted the preliminary draw for the 2018 World Cup, Putin said “people like Blatter … deserve special recognition.”
Blatter had opened the draw ceremony Saturday — held at a palace in St. Petersburg that is an official Putin residence — and warmly congratulated his host.
“Thank you, President Putin, you make us happy and comfortable,” said Blatter, who was making his first trip outside his native Switzerland since American and Swiss investigations of corruption in soccer were revealed in May.
Besides Blatter, Putin suggested to Swiss state broadcaster RTS that heads of international sports federations and Olympic committees would also be worthy recipients.
“Let’s have Nobel Prizes for people like that,” said Putin, who approved lavish spending on the 2014 Sochi Olympics that cost $51 billion to prepare and stage.
On Saturday, Blatter told Putin that the Russian people “can be proud” of him and that FIFA says “yes to Russia, we are providing our support.”
Russia’s successful bid to host the World Cup is central to the Swiss federal investigation. That case also focuses on the 2022 bidding campaign, won by Qatar.
The American case has named three former FIFA vice presidents among 14 soccer and marketing officials indicted in May on widespread racketeering charges. A further four men have made guilty pleas in the widening case that is also expected to target Blatter and the 2018-2022 World Cup bid contests.
Putin said in the Swiss interview, recorded Saturday in St. Petersburg, that he was sure Blatter was not corrupt. He added that, by making allegations against FIFA, the Americans and their allies in Britain were continuing to fight the World Cup bidding contest. Both the United States and Britain bid for the tournaments won by Qatar and Russia.
Blatter made a similar comment in his first interview after being re-elected president of FIFA on May 29.
Four days after the interview aired on RTS, Blatter announced he would step down within months. The new election is scheduled for Feb. 26.
Blatter has long coveted a Nobel Peace Prize for FIFA on behalf of world soccer, but the corruption cases appear finally to have ended that hope.
On June 15, the Nobel Peace Center in Norway terminated its cooperation with FIFA in a project called “Handshake for Peace.” FIFA criticized the Nobel organization the next day for lacking fair play and announcing the split via the media.
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The Swedish military says that Ocean X and Ixplorer teams appear to have found a Russian mini-submarine from World War I in its territorial waters.
Military officials said in a statement that the submarine likely sank in 1916 after colliding with a Swedish submarine.
Video provided by Ocean X shows ...
Iran, France talk of 'new era' in ties after nuclear dealby ALI AKBAR DAREINI and SYLVIE CORBET
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - France sought Wednesday to relaunch diplomatic ties with Iran in the hope of boosting business in the country, following a key nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers reached earlier this month.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius called his one-day visit to Iran "an important trip" ...
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