The Car Hacking Arms Race Begins: Chrysler Recalls 1.4 Million Vehicles - eSecurity Planet | Mental health experts respond carefully to mass killings | Anonymous Hackers: Census Bureau Breached By Hacker Group | Cybercom: Big Data Theft at OPM, Private Networks is New Trend in Cyber Attacks | aspen security forum 2015 - Google Search | Monday July 27th, 2015 at 1:25 PM - U.S. National Security And Military News Review
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On the threat front, Rogers said nation states are seeking partnerships with hacker groups in order to prevent foreign intelligence and security services from accurately identifying the origin of cyber attacks.
The collaboration will make it “harder for us to tell policymakers ‘here’s who it was, it was this nation, this particular actor,’” Rogers said.
“Because remember, a policy response in broad terms always starts with the first question I always get: Who did it? Always starts with who did it. Then, it’s how did they do it, why did they do it.’”
“So you’re going to see nation states attempt to obscure our ability to say who did it,” he said.
On the threat front, Rogers said nation states are seeking partnerships with hacker groups in order to prevent foreign intelligence and security services from accurately identifying the origin of cyber attacks.
The collaboration will make it “harder for us to tell policymakers ‘here’s who it was, it was this nation, this particular actor,’” Rogers said.
“Because remember, a policy response in broad terms always starts with the first question I always get: Who did it? Always starts with who did it. Then, it’s how did they do it, why did they do it.’”
“So you’re going to see nation states attempt to obscure our ability to say who did it,” he said.
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Editor’s Note: Just Security is holding a “mini forum” on the new Defense Department Law of War Manual. This series includes posts from Sean Watts, Eric Jensen, Adil Ahmad Haque, Geoffrey Corn, Charlie Dunlap, Jr., John Dehn,Rachel VanLandingham, and more to come.
Law of cyber warfare practitioners surely breathed a sigh of relief when they found that only 15 of the 1,176 pages in DOD’s new Law of War Manual addressed cyber warfare. DOD appears to have concluded that the law in this area is still developing (or, perhaps, not developing), and that trying to capture it precisely would lead to the creation of a chapter that would soon be irrelevant. As a result, the cyber warfare chapter sticks broadly to the application of the principles of the law of armed conflict to cyber warfare – although it “inconveniently” introduces a new legal concept that seems inconsistent with other sections of the manual.
It’s well-settled in the US that the law of armed conflict applies to cyber warfare – the trick is determining exactly how it applies. Are cyber intrusions analogous to physical intrusions? Is cyber sovereignty the same as Westphalian sovereignty, or has cyberspace morphed the concept into something else entirely? Is temporarily impairing the functionality of equipment the legal equivalent of damaging it? What if the “temporary” period is weeks or months?
For the most part, the conversation about the law of cyber warfare resolves into three main headings:
– What is a cyber attack?
– What is a cyber weapon?
– What are the rules (if any) governing cyber espionage?
Of the three, the DOD manual provides some interesting detail on the first, defers on the second, and avoids the third. It’s understandable that DOD’s treatment of espionage is brief. After all, armed conflict is DOD’s area. Intelligence operations are overseen by others, and the Law of War Manual might not be the best place for a discussion of cyber espionage, however interesting and timely.
Cyber weapons, on the other hand, are within DOD’s area of responsibility, and they have been a topic of increasing interest. There are concerns about whether States have an obligation to disclose vulnerabilities in civilian software, for example, rather than using them as exploits in military or intelligence operations. Sellers of previously unknown software vulnerabilities known as “zero days” have been referred to as “arms dealers.” All the while, there is not even an agreed definition of what constitutes a cyber weapon, and on this difficult issue the manual defers to the individual military services. “Not all cyber capabilities, however, constitute a weapon or weapons system. Military Department regulations address what cyber capabilities require legal review.” Unfortunately, only the Air Force has issued specific guidance on cyber weapons and capabilities, and it’s not clear that the other services hold the same views on these matters as the Air Force. On this issue, the Law of War Manual missed an opportunity to provide some clarity to this area. Perhaps because the department felt the international law on the subject is insufficiently settled to provide definitive guidance.
The manual’s treatment of the notion of cyber attack is the most complete. Two uses of the word attack are addressed in the DOD manual. We’ll first look at the term in its ad bellum sense, because when headlines or political discussions question whether something is a cyber attack, they’re normally considering whether a particular cyber action could justify a State acting in self-defense, which for the US means the action rises to the level of a use of force (the US asserts that the right of self-defense may apply in the case of any use of force against it, as explained in chapter one, footnote 230 of the DOD manual).
In this regard, DOD notes that using cyber capabilities to trigger a nuclear plant meltdown, open a dam above a populated area, or disable air traffic control services resulting in airplane crashes, would “likely be considered” a cyber attack. No surprises there. However, the DOD manual goes on to include in this category crippling a military’s logistics system. Although how extensive an attack would have to be to be considered “crippling” isn’t specified, it’s potentially quite a leap from bursting the Hoover Dam to conducting a long-term denial of service disruption against Transportation Command’s computer network, delaying the movement of troops and materiel . This standard could be especially problematic if applied by a smaller State with a less robust military logistics capability. For example, in a situation like the 2007 events in Estonia, a relatively small State might incidentally have its military logistics system crippled when civilian communications in the country are disrupted. Until now, disrupting communications (like in Estonia) probably wouldn’t have been considered a sufficient basis for exercising the right of self-defense.
The DOD manual discusses the meaning of cyber attack during armed conflict (in bello), as well. The definition of attack is important within on-going armed conflicts because it determines when the principles of the law of armed conflict apply. The DOD manual notes the term doesn’t encompass defacing government webpages; briefly disrupting Internet service in a minor way; briefly disrupting, disabling, or interfering with communications; or disseminating propaganda. However, the DOD manual modifies its stance by introducing a unique principle of cyber warfare – Avoidance of Unnecessary Inconvenience. “[E]ven if a cyber operation is not an ‘attack’ or does not cause any injury or damage that would need to be considered under the proportionality rule, that cyber operation still should not be conducted in a way that unnecessarily causes inconvenience to civilians or neutral persons.” Perhaps the language is just a specific articulation of the principle of humanity, for example, and is also applicable to kinetic warfare, but it appears to be new. It’s not clear that inconvenience has ever been a consideration in warfare, as emphasized in chapter 5, footnote 306 of the DOD manual.
One striking thing about the chapter on cyber operations is that it relies almost entirely on two references: a 1999 DOD Office of General Counsel paper and Harold Koh’s 2012 speech at the US Cyber Command Legal Conference. Although Mr Koh’s speech in particular clearly sets out the US position on some of the key issues, it’s odd that the chapter contains not a single reference to theTallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare, which has been generally well-regarded since its publication in 2013. As the Tallinn manual is often consonant with US positions, it may have been helpful to cite it to give a non-US voice to some of the positions, as was the case throughout other chapters of the DOD manual.
DOD should be applauded for tackling the difficult issue of the law of cyber warfare. Cyber operations in 2015 little resemble what they were in the 1990’s when the DOD manual was conceived, and the chapter undoubtedly underwent many revisions over the years. The final product strikes a balance between saying too little and saying too much in an area of law that is fast evolving. This risk is that DOD chose the wrong areas to say too little and too much about – too little about cyber weapons, and too much about law of war principles.
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The Iran Deal and a New US Strategy for the Middle Eastby Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
This post is the latest installment of our “Monday Reflections” feature, in which a different Just Security editor examines the big stories from the previous week or looks ahead to key developments on the horizon.
With most commentary being focused on analyzing the technical requirement of the US and west’s agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear program, it’s also crucial to take on early the broader ramifications of the deal on Middle East stability. These observations are framed by four quotations from an op-ed piece published by Henry Kissinger and George Schultz in the Wall Street Journal in April 2015.
I believe the wise statesmen’s advice can help guide the formulation of US strategic objectives that should be pursued following the nuclear deal with Iran. Kissinger and Schultz suggest four over-arching tasks to take on as first order of business in trying broader US policy initiatives into the agreement.
1. “If the world is to be spared even worse turmoil, the U.S. must develop a strategic doctrine for the region. Stability requires an active American role. For Iran to be a valuable member of the international community, the prerequisite is that it accepts restraint on its ability to destabilize the Middle East and challenge the broader international order.”
After the Iran nuclear deal, more than ever, the US must develop a strategic doctrine for the Middle East. The US must remain engaged in the region, and hold together the international coalition that brought Iran to the negotiating table. Whereas many Americans may hope the agreement allows the US to focus more of its energies on domestic issues, the US leadership role will require an intensification of US involvement in the region for the duration of the agreement. This is a good outcome in terms of preserving our national security interests. The successful negotiations provide a counterweight to a broad, misplaced perception of a US strategic retreat from the region, as US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan has wound down. The deal is a sign that US influence and power are not waning.
2. “The final stages of the nuclear talks have coincided with Iran’s intensified efforts to expand and entrench its power in neighboring states. Iranian or Iranian client forces are now the pre-eminent military or political element in multiple Arab countries, operating beyond the control of national authorities. With the recent addition of Yemen as a battlefield, Tehran occupies positions along all of the Middle East’s strategic waterways and encircles archrival Saudi Arabia, an American ally. Unless political restraint is linked to nuclear restraint, an agreement freeing Iran from sanctions risks empowering Iran’s hegemonic efforts.”
The Iranian nuclear deal is the centerpiece of any US strategic doctrine; the course of implementation will have a decisive impact on regional stability, not only in terms of nuclear proliferation, but in re-defining Tehran’s role in the region. How will the deal impact on Iran’s intentions and capabilities? A new US strategic doctrine must persuade and deter Iran from utilizing its new-found influence in ways that thwart US interests, while strengthening relations and cooperation with traditional Sunni allies, notably Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, and Jordan. Those two goals work at cross-purposes, so it will take deft diplomacy to successfully pursue such contradictory objectives. Achieving both objectives can be done, as long as senior US policymakers maintain strong, open channels of dialogue to explain our intentions and actions with all parties in the region.
3. “As Sunni states gear up to resist a new Shiite empire, the opposite is likely to be the case. The Middle East will not stabilize itself, nor will a balance of power naturally assert itself out of Iranian-Sunni competition.”
In implementing the Iran deal, the US must take great care to not fall into the trap of failing to recognize the unavoidable, regionally destabilizing potential of the nuclear deal. The fact is that Iran’s power in the region will be strengthened by the lifting of sanctions, and by the heightened prestige of having negotiated such a “favorable deal” with the superpower US. In the conspiracy circles that rule the Arab street, the US will be perceived to have entered into a strategic alliance with Iran, over allying itself with traditional Sunni allies. The fact that this is not reality does not matter; the mere perception of a strategic US-Iranian relationship could drive a deeper wedge in the Shia-Sunni divide, and exacerbate Sunni suspicions of US intentions. The perception of a strategic shift in US policy may also increase the legitimacy and popular appeal of the Sunni extremist narrative that has been handed down from al-Qaeda to Daesh, that this is a war between gathering forces of good and evil – between Sunni and Shia. Between believers and apostates. Sunni terrorists will strive to cast the US in the role of the leading apostate, and thus the main enemy of the forces of Allah. In the end of days, each must choose what side to join, for the final battle that will ensue. The US must take great care not to cast itself in a role that will swing independent voters and moderates, so to speak, into the Sunni extremist camp.
4. “Until clarity on an American strategic political concept is reached, the projected nuclear agreement will reinforce, not resolve, the world’s challenges in the region. Rather than enabling American disengagement from the Middle East, the nuclear framework is more likely to necessitate deepening involvement there—on complex new terms. History will not do our work for us; it helps only those who seek to help themselves.”
A US strategic concept for the Middle East, with the Iran nuclear agreement as its centerpiece, must be augmented with an integrated implementation plan that brings together all levers of statecraft: diplomacy, military power, and intelligence. The concept should include a broad communications and messaging plan that brings clarity of US plans and intentions to friend and foe, alike. The strategic concept should require the State Department, Defense Department, CIA, and other agencies to raise their game, in terms of implementation, integration of effort, and interagency coordination.
Implementing a strategic concept won’t be easy.
The US lacks situational awareness of what is transpiring on the ground in the greater Middle East. Regional instability, an increasing number of denied areas in the region, less government control over territory, present an unprecedented challenge to US efforts at developing and sustaining access to adversary plans and intentions. The intelligence community must raise its game.
We need better intelligence collection. Since 9/11, the US has over-relied on technical, standoff means of conducting intelligence, at he expense of pursuing classical espionage. The US lacks sufficient spies and networks of human sources.
We need better analysis. We’ve gotten bad at predicting the future because we’ve given up trying to do so; practicing foresight and early warning is a dying art form in the modern world. High-level support for red cell and dissent analysis is also vital to avoid the dangers of group think.
We need imagination. US decision makers must be willing to endorse the kind of risk taking required to get out in front of the news, to anticipate events, and avert the prospect of encountering strategic surprise.
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July 27, 2015, 4:27 PM (IDT)
A Kurdish Syrian official Idres Nassan Hasan Monday accused Turkey of shelling Kurdish-held villages in northern Syria in Sunday overnight air strikes, although Kurdish fighters are a key US partner in fighting the Islamic State. Ankara denied the charge. “Instead of targeting Islamic State terrorists’ occupied positions, Turkish forces attack our defenders’ positions,” the People’s Defense Units, or YPG, said in a statement. DEBKAfile: Turkey has been using its new campaign against ISIS for strikes against Kurdish groups.
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The commander of U.S. Cyber Command said last week that the Office of Personnel Management hack of millions of records of federal workers shows a new trend toward using Big Data analytics for both nation-state and criminal cyber attacks.
“One of the lessons from OPM for me is we need to recognize that increasingly data has a value all its own and that there are people actively out there interested in acquiring data in volumes and numbers that we didn’t see before,” said Adm. Mike Rogers, the Cyber Command commander and also director of the National Security Agency.
The theft of 22.1 million federal records, including sensitive background information on millions of security clearance holders, will assist foreign nations in conducting future cyber attacks through so-called “spear-phishing,” Rogers said, declining to name China as the nation state behind the OPM hacks.
Additionally, China is suspected in the hack uncovered in February of 80 million medical records of the health care provider Anthem, which would have given it access to valuable personal intelligence that can be used to identify foreign spies and conduct additional cyber attacks.
Rogers said the massive data thefts in recent months appears to coincide with massive spear-phishing hacking campaign around the world. Spear-phishing is the use of emails to gain unauthorized access to computers.
The vast amounts of data that have been stolen also will assist counterintelligence operations by countries like China that seek to identify foreign intelligence officers posted abroad, he added.
“No. 1, from an intelligence perspective, [personal data] gives you great insight to potentially use for counterintelligence purposes,” Rogers said during remarks to the Aspen Security Forum July 23.
“So for example if I’m interested in trying to identify U.S. persons who may be in my country and I’m trying to figure out why are they there … are they just tourists, are they there for some other alternative … there are some interesting insights you can draw from the kind of data you were able to take from OPM,” he said.
Additionally, nation states and criminal groups are gathering up vast amounts of data and analyzing it to identify “insights about people as individuals,” Rogers said.
The goal is “to tailor products in the form of emails, that seem to you as a user so appropriate that you would receive it, [and suspect] it’s from somebody I know. It’s a topic that I really care about. It’s an issue that I’ve been really focused on for a long time,” the four-star admiral said.
Those custom-tailored emails are designed “as a vehicle to actually get you to open an email, click on an attachment, click on a video link.”
“Perhaps [it’s] unrelated that in the last nine months I am watching huge spear phishing campaigns coming out of several nations around the world directed against U.S. targets,” Rogers said, adding that the big data cyber attacks and the increase in spear phishing attacks are “not unrelated to me.”
Only a few years ago, intelligence and cyber security officials tended to focus on the potential theft of intellectual property, as well as research and development information, that could provide market advantages.
“And we really hadn’t come to a conclusion that perhaps not only is that of concern, but you combine the power of Big Data analytics, and the fact that today, the ability to bore through huge amounts of data and find seemingly disconnected and unrelated data points and bring coherent meaning and insight, [is] something that wasn’t there in the past,” Rogers said.
As a result of the trend in cyber attacks over the past two years involving large-scale downloads of personal data and personnel information, the Pentagon has shifted the focus of its cyber defenses and now regards Big Data as a major new target.
“It’s not just about this idea, ‘Hey I want the plans for the F-35; Hey, I want to see what you’re doing in acoustic technology; Hey I want to see what you’re doing in the development of advanced dye products, for example,” he said.
The new trend means the target set for foreign states and criminals is becoming bigger and “from a defensive standpoint, makes the job even more difficult.”
Rogers was asked why the Obama administration has not named China as the state hackers behind the OPM attack when in the case of the Sony Pictures Entertainment cyber attack last year, North Korea was blamed publicly by the president.
The commander declined to discuss specifics of internal administration discussions on the OPM cyber attacks.
“But I would acknowledge that to date, the response to OPM, there’s a thought process, and I’m the first to acknowledge to date, we have take a different approach.”
He acknowledged that foreign intelligence operations to steal U.S. government data in one sense could be viewed as a clandestine activity that many states use such as the National Security Agency’s large-scale electronic operations around the world.
As a result, the administration may have decided against exposing what it knows about China’s role in the OPM hack.
“I think its clearly part of the discussion,” said Rogers who is the military’s most senior commander for cyber defensive and offensive operations.
“I’m not going to argue that that’s the factor that has brought us to where we are today,” he said. “But I won’t deny it for one minute that it’s a factor that you do think about in any regard.”
Publicly exposing the perpetrator of the OPM hack was balanced against the possible consequences of doing so for U.S. friends and allies, Rogers said.
“We thought about that when we were responding to Sony. We think about that in the OPM scenario. It’s a factor we think about in every situation,” Rogers said.
Asked what concerns him most, Rogers said there has been a steady ratcheting up of cyber attacks and one of the trends is the increasingly destructive nature of the hacks.
In the Sony cyber attack, the company lost 70 percent of its hardware from North Korea-origin malware that damaged the company’s networks, including its digital telephone systems.
“I don’t think the destructive piece we saw in Sony is a one-off. We’re going to see more of that,” Rogers said.
Additionally, large data thefts like the OPM hack will also continue to be a problem.
On the threat front, Rogers said nation states are seeking partnerships with hacker groups in order to prevent foreign intelligence and security services from accurately identifying the origin of cyber attacks.
The collaboration will make it “harder for us to tell policymakers ‘here’s who it was, it was this nation, this particular actor,’” Rogers said.
“Because remember, a policy response in broad terms always starts with the first question I always get: Who did it? Always starts with who did it. Then, it’s how did they do it, why did they do it.’”
“So you’re going to see nation states attempt to obscure our ability to say who did it,” he said.
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Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has announced that its ceasefire with Ankara has lost all its meaning after Turkey's warplanes and artillery fire struck their bases in northern Iraq.
The European Union (EU) has called on the Turkish government to maintain a peace agreement with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and not allow terrorist activities to spoil the truce.
More than eighty Russian Navy ships of various classes currently remain on duty at sea, according to the country's Defense Ministry.
The U.S. is backing Turkey's two-pronged air offensive and artillery strikes against Islamic State militants in Syria and Kurdish rebel targets in Iraq.
Coalition military forces continued to attack Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists in Syria and Iraq, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve officials reported today.
Authorities in northeastern Afghanistan confirmed Sunday that the Taliban had captured a key military base in overnight clashes after more than 100 Afghan security forces surrendered to the insurgents.
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The Sukhoi Su-35 is set to follow in the wake of the Soviet Union's legendary Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets in becoming a major military export.
Spurred by last week's jihadist suicide bombing in southern Turkey, the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has started to assume the kind of front-line role Washington has been urging on it for months. But Turkish airstrikes since the bombing have been as focused on Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) as on Islamic extremists, say opposition politicians.
Turkish warplanes have launched a new wave of air raids in northern Iraq to target the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) group.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet was boosted by more than ten boats and support vessels after a forced pause, the Fleet's Commander Adm. Alexander Vitko said late Saturday ahead of the Navy Day.
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The Air Force secretary yesterday discussed her top national and homeland security issues, as well as current personnel challenges, during a question and answer session with Fox News at the sixth annual, three-day Aspen Security Forum in Colorado.
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Syrian government forces along with Kurdish fighters advance against ISIL in the strategic northeastern city of Hasakah, authorities say.
According to the general director of Sevmash, a Russian shipbuilding company, the construction of fifth-generation nuclear-powered submarines could begin by 2020.
The aviation branch of the Russian Navy will get more than 20 new ship-borne MiG-29K fighters by the end of 2015, the Defense Ministry's press service said.
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A high-ranking commander of Ukraine's Azov battalion has been found dead in his apartment in the town of Bucha, outside Kyiv.
The press service of the Azov regiment, formerly a volunteer militia unit, said on Twitter on July 27 that Yaroslav Babych, a deputy chief of Azov's civil staff, was found hanged in the morning of July 26.
No further details were immediately available.
Investigations have been launched into the death.
The Azov Battalion was formed in 2014 to fight Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Azov is now part of the Interior Ministry's National Guard.
With reporting by UNIAN
Russia has banned the importation of cut flowers from the Netherlands.
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