Putin's China Energy Deals May Hide Paper Tigers as Growth Slows Friday September 4th, 2015 at 8:26 AM
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Vladimir Putin’s long-heralded visit to Beijing this week yielded five framework energy deals that bolster Russian hopes of strengthening ties with China as relations sour with the U.S. and Europe. Yet if history is any guide, most of the accords won’t bear fruit.
“Heads of agreements are multiplying at a furious pace,” Sergei Tsyplakov, head of the Sberbank OJSC’s office in China, said by e-mail before the signing ceremonies in Beijing. “Practice shows that out of 10 agreements, we get one or at most two contracts.”
Putin's China Pivot Faces Trade, Market Test
While Russia signed a $400 billion gas-supply contract with China in May 2014, after almost a decade of talks, and a $270 billion oil deal in 2013, the agreements initialed this week in Beijing by OAO Rosneft, Gazprom PJSC and Novatek OJSC are largely non-binding.
Putin is turning to China, the largest energy importer, as U.S. and European Union sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine limit the access of Russian oil companies to foreign financial markets and drilling technologies. While Russia’s need for credit and new markets increases as the country enters its first recession since 2009, Beijing is stalling on further deals as it grapples with industrial overcapacity, the fallout from a downturn in property investment and a volatile stock market.
Deadline Delay
Gazprom, the world’s biggest gas exporter, said on Thursday that it has delayed to 2016 the deadline for signing a contract to supply China from fields in West Siberia. That deal, valued at about $170 billion at current prices by UBS Group AG analyst Maxim Moshkov, would have made China Gazprom’s largest customer, building on the landmark agreement brokered by Putin 16 months ago.
Gazprom instead signed a memorandum of understanding with China about a possible third gas pipeline from the Sakhalin region in Russia’s Far East, a smaller project, Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller said in Beijing.
Framework agreements have a tendency to languish. It’s been almost a year since Rosneft signed an accord with China National Petroleum Corp. on the joint development of the Vankor, the largest greenfield oil development in post-Soviet Russia. While the Chinese talks continue, ONGC Videsh Ltd., the overseas arm of India’s biggest explorer, signed an agreement on Friday at a forum in Vladivostok to buy 15 percent of the giant field from Rosneft.
Cutting Spending
China has also dawdled over the framework accord on joint cooperation at the East Siberian Taas-Yuryah project signed by CNPC and Rosneft in October 2013. Almost two years later, Rosneft sold a 20 percent stake to BP Plc and agreed to sell 29 percent to Skyland Petroleum, an independent oil company supported by private Chinese investors, after CNPC failed to exercise its right to buy 49 percent.
"People are being careful,” Natural Resources Minister Sergei Donskoi told Bloomberg at the Vladivostok forum when asked why binding deals between Russian and Chinese companies are taking so long to reach.
With Russian oil companies set to cut spending by as much as 15 percent in 2015, there appears to be no lack of enthusiasm from the Kremlin. When Putin invited CNPC to join the Vankor project in September 2014, he said “we are generally very careful about giving access to our foreign partners, but of course there are no limitations for our Chinese friends.”
Seeking Acquisitions
Despite its inaction, China is still making positive noises. Sinopec Chairman Wang Yupu said last week his company seeking to acquire “high-quality” foreign assets.
Sinopec and Rosneft agreed in Beijing on the potential joint development of two fields in East Siberia. If the companies proceed, the Chinese company will get the right to buy as much as 49 percent of the projects.
Novatek OJSC, Russia’s second-biggest gas producer, also agreed to sell 9.9 percent of the Yamal liquefied natural gas project to China’s state-owned Silk Road Fund. Should the deal be ratified, it would increase China’s shareholding in what is Russia’s first private LNG project to just under a third as CNPC already owns 20 percent.
Russia’s proximity to China gives it an edge in energy deals, said Lin Boqiang, director at the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University and an independent director on the board of PetroChina.
“The Former USSR, being virtually next door, will have an advantage,” he said.
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VLADIVOSTOK, RUSSIA: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is ready to hold snap parliamentary elections and could share power with "healthy" opposition.
Putin's comments are the closest in weeks to outlining what Moscow might see as an acceptable way forward on dealing with Assad. Russia, along with Iran, has been Assad's key international ally in the war that has been raging in Syria for four-and-a-half years and in which a quarter of a million people have been killed.
Moscow has made clear it does not want to see Assad toppled and has seized on gains made by Islamic State in Syria and Iraq to urge his foreign foes, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, to work with Damascus to combat the common enemy.
"We really want to create some kind of an international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism," Putin told journalists on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia's Far East hub of Vladivostok, adding he had spoken to US President Barack Obama on the matter.
"We are also working with our partners in Syria. In general, the understanding is that this uniting of efforts in fighting terrorism should go in parallel to some political process in Syria itself," Putin said.
"And the Syrian president agrees with that, all the way down to holding early elections, let's say, parliamentary ones, establishing contacts with the so-called healthy opposition, bringing them into governing."
Moscow wants the US-led coalition carrying out air strikes on Islamic State positions to coordinate with the Syrian and Iraqi armies and moderate anti-Assad rebel groups on the ground, as well as Kurdish forces.
Assad's foes have refused to cooperate with Damascus, fearing that would help legitimise his rule in Syria, where the West and Gulf states say he is part of the problem, not the solution, and must go.
A flurry of recent high-level diplomatic contacts have so far failed to yield a breakthrough on the key point of contention in the conflict.
"If it's impossible today to organise joint work directly on the battle field between all those countries interested in fighting terrorism, it's indispensable to at least establish some sort of coordination between them," Putin said.
He added the chiefs of general staff of armed forces of countries "sitting close" to the conflict visited Moscow recently on that.
Putin's comments are the closest in weeks to outlining what Moscow might see as an acceptable way forward on dealing with Assad. Russia, along with Iran, has been Assad's key international ally in the war that has been raging in Syria for four-and-a-half years and in which a quarter of a million people have been killed.
Moscow has made clear it does not want to see Assad toppled and has seized on gains made by Islamic State in Syria and Iraq to urge his foreign foes, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, to work with Damascus to combat the common enemy.
"We really want to create some kind of an international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism," Putin told journalists on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia's Far East hub of Vladivostok, adding he had spoken to US President Barack Obama on the matter.
"We are also working with our partners in Syria. In general, the understanding is that this uniting of efforts in fighting terrorism should go in parallel to some political process in Syria itself," Putin said.
"And the Syrian president agrees with that, all the way down to holding early elections, let's say, parliamentary ones, establishing contacts with the so-called healthy opposition, bringing them into governing."
Moscow wants the US-led coalition carrying out air strikes on Islamic State positions to coordinate with the Syrian and Iraqi armies and moderate anti-Assad rebel groups on the ground, as well as Kurdish forces.
Assad's foes have refused to cooperate with Damascus, fearing that would help legitimise his rule in Syria, where the West and Gulf states say he is part of the problem, not the solution, and must go.
A flurry of recent high-level diplomatic contacts have so far failed to yield a breakthrough on the key point of contention in the conflict.
"If it's impossible today to organise joint work directly on the battle field between all those countries interested in fighting terrorism, it's indispensable to at least establish some sort of coordination between them," Putin said.
He added the chiefs of general staff of armed forces of countries "sitting close" to the conflict visited Moscow recently on that.
Federal law enforcement officials will be routinely required to get a search warrant before using secretive and intrusive cellphone-tracking technology under a new Justice Department policy announced Thursday.
The policy represents the first effort to create a uniform legal standard for federal authorities using equipment known as cell-site simulators, which tracks cellphones used by suspects.
It comes amid concerns from privacy groups and lawmakers that the technology, which is now widely used by local police departments, is infringing on privacy rights and is being used without proper accountability.
"The policy is really designed to address our practices, and to really try to promote transparency and consistency and accountability — all while being mindful of the public's privacy interest," Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates told reporters in announcing the policy change.
The policy applies only to federal agencies within the Justice Department and not, as some privacy advocates had hoped, to state and local law enforcement whose use of the equipment has stirred particular concern and scrutiny from local judges.
The technology — also known as a Stingray, a suitcase-sized device — can sweep up basic cellphone data from a neighborhood by tricking phones in the area to believe that it's a cell tower, allowing it to identify unique subscriber numbers. The data is then transmitted to the police, helping them determine the location of a phone without the user even making a call or sending a text message.
The equipment used by the Justice Department does not collect the content of communications.
Even as federal law enforcement officials tout the technology as a vital tool to catch fugitives and kidnapping suspects, privacy groups have raised alarms about the secrecy surrounding its use and the collection of cellphone information of innocent bystanders who happen to be in a particular neighborhood or location.
In creating the new policy the Justice Department was mindful of those concerns and also sought to address inconsistent practices among different federal agencies and offices, Yates said.
"We understand that people have a concern about their private information, and particularly folks who are not the subjects or targets of investigations," Yates said.
The new policy requires a warrant in most cases, except for emergencies like an immediate national security threat, as well as unspecified "exceptional circumstances." The warrant applications are to set out how the technology will be used.
In addition, authorities will be required to delete data that's been collected once they have the information they need, and are expected to provide training to employees.
The policy could act as a blueprint for state and local law enforcement agencies in developing their own regulations. But it's unclear how broad an impact Thursday's announcement will have, since it does not directly affect local police agencies unless they're working alongside federal authorities on a case or relying on their assistance.
Use of the technology has spread widely among local police departments, who have been largely mum about their use of the technology and hesitant to disclose details — often withholding materials or heavily censoring documents that they do provide.
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Hillary Clinton’s going to Puerto Rico, and it’s not because she’s chasing the island’s delegates.
The Democratic front-runner flies to San Juan on Friday with an eye firmly trained on central Florida and its rapidly expanding Puerto Rican population, a group Democrats think could prove decisive to winning one of the most critical swing states of 2016. And any message she sends to those voters is effectively cc’ed to Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.
Clinton’s trip is designed to project the sense to this politically potent group that Clinton takes the territory’s troubles seriously. She has already called for the federal government to take steps to ease Puerto Rico’s debt crisis, and on Friday she will sit with local residents to hear about the island’s healthcare problems amid its economic downturn.
More than any other appeal to Hispanics, Clinton’s pitch is a direct challenge to Rubio, who also makes his first visit to the island this week, and to Bush, who has already checked that box. Both Republicans are courting the same set of voters with an argument that each is the candidate who can bring Latinos back to the GOP. Indeed, for Clinton and the two fluent Spanish-speaking Republicans in the race, the fight for Florida has become a battle for hearts and minds in Puerto Rico.
“If Hillary wins Florida, she’s the president of the United States,” argued John Morgan, an Orlando lawyer and major Democratic donor backing Clinton. “When you get to Florida, where it will all be determined is the I-4 corridor, between Tampa and Daytona. In the middle of it all, in central Florida, is this gigantic population of Puerto Ricans with strong ties back home.”
If it seems premature to be making a general-election play, it’s a reflection of how critical Florida is to these candidates’ game-plans.
The island’s fiscal problems also created a political opportunity this summer when its debt crisis spurred President Barack Obama to ask Congress to give the territory access to bankruptcy courts. Clinton made a similar plea earlier that month. Her political director Amanda Renteria visited in June, and both her current campaign manager Robby Mook and top organizing official Marlon Marshall worked for her there in 2008, when she beat Obama handily in the primary.
Down the road, Rubio, like Clinton, will be making his first appearance in the territory on Friday. And his campaign is missing no chance to draw contrasts with Clinton, promoting its public rally as the opposite of Clinton’s “invite-only roundtable discussion,” in the words of Rubio’s team.
Bush visited in April and recalled his time spent campaigning there for his father in 1980. (He didn’t miss an opportunity to show off his Spanish skills, something audiences always cheer.)
“This is about a population where we see 50-to-70,000 people a year leaving the island, and many settling in central Florida,” explained the Pew Research Center’s director of Hispanic research, Mark Hugo Lopez. “They are changing the dynamics of Florida’s Latino vote, and you can see that it’s becoming more Democratic-leaning in voter registration."
The numbers explain the attention Puerto Rico is getting this campaign cycle. Florida has been the most popular destination for Puerto Ricans leaving the island in recent years, vaulting the state’s current Puerto Rican population well above the 847,000 reported in the 2010 census. That rise has coincided with Florida’s Hispanic population becoming increasingly Democratic-leaning, according to a Pew study that showed Republicans losing their edge in 2008.
If Clinton can secure a significant portion of the Puerto Rican Floridian vote, the Republican path to the White House becomes far more complicated.
The last Republican to win there was Jeb’s brother, George W. Bush. This cycle, in a GOP nomination battle led by Donald Trump, Rubio and Bush see opportunity. After comments many in the Latino community regarded as racist, Trump’s favorability is 51 percent underwater among Hispanics, according to Gallup. Rubio and Bush are the two GOP contenders with the strongest favorables -- at +5 and +11, respectively.
But by contrast, on this score, Clinton is +40.
Part of that is due to her position on immigration, and the argument she has been making both explicitly and implicitly with other Hispanic voters that the Republican Party’s platform is dangerous and xenophobic. Clinton allies often say the Republican Party’s self-inflicted damages on that front outweigh the effect that her ongoing email controversy is having on her poll numbers.
But when it comes to the island, this argument holds less weight: Puerto Ricans are already American, and therefore tend to focus less on immigration than other Hispanic voters — meaning candidates looking to win them over have to focus on a separate set of issues entirely.
For Clinton this weekend, that’s the economy.
“You can never start too early connecting with a community that large in the biggest swing state in the country,” said Florida Democratic Party Executive Director Scott Arceneaux. “My first thought is, this is really going to help us next year."
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A Russian weather team became trapped in a remote station when a group of polar bears settled outside their camp.
The two meteorologists and an engineer are stuck on Vaygach Island, CBS reports, unable to take readings because the bears have parked right outside their camp and are displaying aggressive behavior. A pair of the bears “recently grappled, fighting near the house,” one of the trapped staff said.
The team has only flares to ward off the bears, which so far have not worked. The weather team has requested assistance from Russian officials.
[CBS]
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A fish photo-op goes awry for
Barack Obama, when the salmon he was holding begins to spawn onto his shoes. ‘Did you see that? Something’s got on my shoes!’ the president exclaims, while posing next to a local fisherwoman in Dillingham, Alaska. The president appeared unfazed by the incident, as did the woman, who later said the fish was just happy to see him
Continue reading...Barack Obama, when the salmon he was holding begins to spawn onto his shoes. ‘Did you see that? Something’s got on my shoes!’ the president exclaims, while posing next to a local fisherwoman in Dillingham, Alaska. The president appeared unfazed by the incident, as did the woman, who later said the fish was just happy to see him
The P5+1 agreement with Iran on Iran’s nuclear program has generated (sometimes fevered) anticipation of an Iranian oil bonanza at the end of the nuclear agreement rainbow, both in terms of the increase in Iranian crude output and the business opportunities for foreign firms in driving the increase.
The anticipation comes from several sources. Iran’s crude potential is one. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran’s proven crude reserves, 158 billion barrels, are the world’s fourth largest (and among the cheapest to produce at $8-to-$17/barrel, depending on thesource,). Iranian public statements expressing determination to increase crude output significantly are another (to 5.7 mmbl/day, according to Mehdi Hosseini, chairman of Iran’s oil contracts restructuring committee). The third is the value of potential contracts for foreign suppliers. Hossein Zamaninia, Iran’s deputy oil minister for commerce and international affairs, indicated the government hoped to conclude nearly 50 oil and gas projects worth $185 billion by 2020.
Projected Output and Exports to 2020
Projecting from International Energy Agency (IEA) data, Iran is on track to produce an average ~2.85 mmbl/day of crude in 2015. The IEA puts Iran’s current sustainable capacity at 3.6 mmbl/day (defined as a level achievable in 90 days and sustainable for an extended period). This is roughly comparable to Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh’s assertion Iran could increase output 500,000 barrels per day within a few months after international sanctions on Iran’s economy are lifted and another 500,000 barrels per day in the following months .
The IEA estimates Iran could “push capacity back up to 4 mmbl/d mark towards by the end of the decade” (a level which it says Iran last reached in 2008). For discussion purposes, the table below offers a scenario to arrive at output of 4 mmbl/day by 2020. It also shows projected revenue, assuming constant $55/barrel price, $12.50/barrel production cost, and constant exports at 91,000 barrels per day (Base case); constant $55 price, $12.50/barrel production cost, and increasing exports (Case 1); and $5 annual increase in price, $12.50/barrel production cost, and increasing exports (Case 2).
Sources and Amount of Necessary Foreign Investment
The IEA believes 4 mmbl/day is attainable “with the help of foreign cash and cutting-edge technology.” Saeed Ghavampour, the oil ministry’s general manager of strategic planning, puts thetotal investment needed in the Iranian energy industry through 2020 at $100 billion to $500 billion through 2020.
How much foreign investment is necessary to maintain current output and to add the 1.15 mmbl/day incremental capacity necessary to reach 4 mmbl/day? Assuming Zamaninia’s $185 billion is the minimum investment the Iranian oil industry requires over the next five years, and the maximum is $300 billion—half the difference between Ghavampour’s high and low estimate—Iran would need to invest between $35 billion to $60 billion annually.
Iran won’t be able to finance this on its own. It has three “internal” sources of investment—frozen Iranian funds in foreign accounts, government budget resources (oil revenues flow to the Iranian government, a portion of which the government returns to the industry), and oil in storage. (Iranian banks evidentlycan’t provide meaningful funding). Rough conjectures of the investment Iran could generate from these three sources in current low price environment are as follows:
– Perhaps $2-$4 billion annually through 2020 from frozen Iranian funds in foreign accounts. Some estimates put the total at $100 billion (or $20 billion annually). U.S. Treasury Secretary Lew, in testimony before Congress, put the available funds at $50 billion ($10 billion annually). Since Iran’s oil industry is only one of many claimants on the frozen funds, including the natural gas industry, the Iranian military, Iran’s proxy clients in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, the commercial aviation industry (replacing the passenger jet fleet), other industries, and the Iranian people, maybe it will receive 20 percent of the frozen funds, or between $2 and $4 billion annually.
– For the sake of argument, $10 billion annually through 2020 from government budget resources, which is very generous given the share of crude export revenues this level of support would consume (see last row of above table), the demands from other Iranian claimants, and Zanganeh’s data (investment fell from an average $20 annually in 2011 and 2012, when the OPEC basket crude averaged $107.46 and $109.45 per barrel respectively, to $6 billion in 2014, when it averaged $96.29, and virtually nothing this year, when it averaged $53.97 through August).
– Perhaps $1-$1.5 billion as a one-time contribution from oil currently in storage. Estimates of this amount vary from less than 10 million barrels to over 30 million barrels. Assuming an OPEC basket price of $54/barrel, production costs of $8-$17/barrel, and 35 million barrels in storage, Iran would net between $1.3 billion (or $260 million annually, if sold in equal tranches over five years) and $1.6 billion (or $320 million annually).
Even doubling the maximum and minimum domestic annual contribution to $28.58 billion or $24.58 billion respectively, Iran would still need substantial foreign investment ($31.42 and $12.42 respectively).
Investment Case for Investment in Iranian Oil Industry
Their size, their long life, and their relatively low production cost make Iran’s crude resources attractive.
A number of factors take the gloss off investing in these resources, however. The UN and U.S. economic sanctions on Iran are one (in addition to observing U.N. sanctions, the U.S. has enacted and observes its own, which are stricter and more extensive). Lifting both the international and U.S. sanctions would require Iran to meet certain milestones and remain in compliance with the terms of the nuclear agreement. At least until U.S. presidential and Congressional elections in November 2016, the U.S. position on both sets of sanctions is subject to change. Domestic political dynamics may cause the U.S. to back away from lifting sanctions, as could Iranian actions, such as aggression, directly or indirectly through proxies, against Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other U.S. allies. Even if U.N. sanctions are lifted, foreign companies may not want to risk violating U.S. sanctions.
The possibility of direct military conflict between Iran on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies on the other is another factor. The two sides are already essentially at war indirectly in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. Moreover, just the threat of direct military conflict or an increase in regional tensions is enough to cause foreigners anxiety.
The deal structure the Iranians will offer foreign companies—Hosseini described it as a “risk service contract”—will increase rather than mitigate risk. Given their lack of capital, the Iranians will be asking foreigners to bear the upfront investment burden in return for payment (cash and/or crude) in the (perhaps distant) future. Foreigners must take into account the possibility that negative changes in the internal and/or external environment will damage the value of their investment.
Foreign investors cannot be confident Iran’s internal political dynamics will be conducive to foreign investment. Not all influential Iranians or Iranian interest groups (for example, the powerful Revolutionary Guards) welcome the nuclear agreement and détente with the United States and Europe. Should the balance of power tip in their favor—or further in their favor—foreign investments could face anything from unpleasant pressure to expropriation.
Moreover, absent a binding agreement within OPEC and between OPEC and Russia on production levels, Saudi and Gulf Arab production policies will threaten the value of foreign investment in the Iranian crude industry. Saudi Arabia’s sustainable capacity is 2.5 mmbl/day more than its average 10.01 mmbl daily output in 1H 2015, while the UAE has announced plans to increase output 600,000 barrels per day in the next few years, and Kuwait by 1.4 mmbl/day by 2020.
Finally, Iran will have to compete with other countries for scarce oil investment funds.
Country and Company Potential
The situations of Individual countries and companies, summarized below, imply limited foreign investment in the Iranian industry in the current environment:
– China. Investing in Iran would reduce dependence on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies and increase China’s leverage in negotiations with these countries on price and volumes. However, China already has substantial financial commitments and exposure to Venezuela and its oil industry and to Russia and its energy industry. Its national oil companies, CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec facepressure to cut spending , while Canadian regulators have ordered CNOOC’s Nexen unit to shut down its oil sands pipelines. Any negotiations with Iran are likely to be protracted (using China’s years’ long negotiations with Russia natural gas pricing as a recent example). Also, China cannot risk alienating Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab countries on which China will remain highly dependent for crude supplies for the foreseeable future.
– Russia. Russian government finances are stretched, as are the finances of its energy majors, Gazprom, Novatek, and Rosneft, from low energy prices, a depreciating Ruble, Chinese currency and stock market troubles. In any case, while Russia will finance Iran’s purchase of Russian nuclear power plants, Russia is unlikely to invest substantial amounts in the Iranian oil industry, a major competitor for Asian market share.
– Western countries. If their companies develop proposals to invest in the Iranian energy industry, the U.K. and France might be willing to approve them, while the U.S. and Canada are not likely to encourage such investment in a direct competitor for market share.
– Western oil majors. Even if their governments are willing to bless projects, Western oil majors—Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, Total, ENI—are unlikely to make major commitments to Iran in the current environment. Exxon and BP are already exposed to substantial political risk with their investments in Iraq and Russia. Shell must fund its $70 billion acquisition of BG Group. All are slashing investment budgets. Some, if not all, have committed to maintaining their dividends, and to maintain dividends and fund investment, some may have to borrow. It is likely their banks will be reluctant to lend significant amounts for projects in Iran, given the risks involved and tighter regulatory standards requiring bank reserves to match loan risks.
In Sum
While it is likely Iran will increase crude output once sanctions are lifted, it is possible that Iran will lack the domestic and foreign resources necessary to increase crude output to and over 4 mmbls/day by 2020. Absent a thaw in its relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab states, and the West, higher and more stable crude prices, and initial positive experience for foreign companies in negotiating and implementing projects, it is more likely foreign investment will trickle into the Iranian energy industry than gush into it.
This article originally appeared on Oilprice.com
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President Xi Jinping’s announcement about troop reductions is welcome. But the huge show of military force in Beijing to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the war with Japan was an intimidating reminder for the west of China’s power
On 15 August 1945, the day after Emperor Hirohito told the Japanese that the time had come to “endure the unendurable” and accept that Japan had lost the war, a weary but elated Chiang Kai-shek also spoke to his people on the radio. “Our faith in justice through black and hopeless days and eight long years of struggle has today been rewarded,” he told them, looking back on a struggle in which at least 14 million Chinese died, 80 million became refugees, and most of the country’s industry, roads, railways and other infrastructure was destroyed.
Even though it was the atomic bomb that precipitated the Japanese surrender and the American advance across the Pacific which had destroyed Japanese sea-power, it was the Chinese who had kept the bulk of Japan’s land armies tied down on the mainland. Chiang’s nationalist party, the Kuomintang (KMT), could rightly claim most of the credit, the communists playing a distinctly secondary role. Chiang and the KMT lost many battles, but they never gave up: the Japanese were never able to turn their energies and resources away from this battered but still resolute enemy. If they had been able to do so, the conflict in the far east might have developed very differently.
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Russia's Prime Minister, Dmitri Medvedev, announced a halt to a proposed ban on state-funding of imported medical goods. Medvedev told Russian journalists a suggested bill to restrict imported medical devices and supplies would not be supported by his government unless treatment quality for patients could be maintained. "I have stopped the document [bill] so far,” he said. The prime minister added, “we must be 100 percent sure that if we close the supply of something, we...
Study: US College Students Prefer Marijuana to Tobaccoby webdesk@voanews.com (Matthew Hilburn)
American college students are using marijuana more than tobacco for the first time. Surveys on marijuana use among college students show that 5.9 percent use it nearly every day, or at least 20 times in the past 30 days. It’s the highest rate since 1980, up from 3.5 percent in 2007. Only 5 percent of college students reported using tobacco daily. Not only is frequent use of marijuana up, but students are also experimenting more with the drug. Twenty-one percent of...
Hard-Pressed Kurdistan Can't Pay Security Forces Battling ISby webdesk@voanews.com (Sharon Behn)
He said his name was "Freedom." Left hand on the wheel of his sand-colored taxi, he reached up with his right to open the compartment above the rear-view mirror while driving through the streets of Irbil, the main city in Iraq's Kurdish region. Glancing at the cars in front, then at the mirror, he grabbed his ID card out of the compartment and showed it. "Police," he said. "Freedom" explained that the Kurdistan Regional Government had not paid...
Israeli parliament bans journalists from voicing opinions in newscasts, causing stir
U.S and NATO officials recognize it's developing into a "real crisis," he said.
 Fox News |
Remember that Donald Trump's loyalty pledge means almost nothing
Washington Post GOP front-runner Donald Trump signed a formal pledge crafted by the Republican National Committee that he will not run for president as an independent if he doesn't win the party's nomination. Which is fine. And a good thing for the RNC, which deserves ... Pressured by party, |
Taking Note | Donald Trump's Empty Promise to the Republican PartyNew York Times (blog)
Is Trump's Republican Loyalty Oath Legally Enforceable?Wall Street Journal (blog)
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Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential field in the latest national and state polls. But former Florida governor Jeb Bush is stepping up his criticism of Trump and highlighting his previous support for Democrats. VOA National correspondent Jim Malone has more on the 2016 presidential race from Washington.
Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/2944152.html
Justice Dept. issues policy for phone surveillance technology; will generally require warrants
Army suspends operations at 9 labs, directs full safety review due to Anthrax investigation
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's parliament voted late on Thursday to extend by a year a mandate authorizing the deployment of troops to Syria and Iraq, weeks after it stepped up its role in the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State.
Guatemala's Congress is expected to convene an emergency session to swear in a new president after embattled conservative leader Otto Perez resigned in the face of a firestorm of corruption allegations.
 Newsweek |
Donald Trump just won. Again.
Washington Post Donald Trump is an absolute PR wizard. He proved that again Thursday with a carefully orchestrated news conference at Trump Tower -- of course -- at which he announced that he had decided not to run as an independent if he comes up short in his pursuit ... Donald Trump Signs Loyalty Pledge to Republican PartyNew York Times Donald Trump signs RNC loyalty pledgeCNN Pressured by party, Trump signs Republican loyalty pledgeReuters CNN International -Politico -Christian Science Monitor all 852 news articles » |
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The US military orders a new crackdown on laboratories producing biological toxins, after another anthrax contamination scare.
The US justice department says federal agencies will have to get search warrants to use technology that tracks mobile phones under new guidance.
(ADRIAN, Mich.) — A man who tried to sell a backpack of dirty socks as marijuana has been sentenced to at least one year in a Michigan prison.
Michael Suarez was sentenced Thursday for committing fraud through false pretenses. An unarmed robbery charge was dropped.
Police say Suarez was pursuing a marijuana deal in July when he showed up at a home in Lenawee County’s Raisin Township. But instead of carrying pot, he had a backpack stuffed with dirty socks.
Police say a purse with $2,800 was stolen from the home. Suarez and others were stopped after speeding through a stop sign.
Defense attorney John Glaser says the “false pretenses” were the dirty socks. Suarez will be eligible for parole after a year in prison. His maximum sentence is 7 ½ years.
Is a Central American Spring on the cards?
 BBC News |
How Guatemalans began daring to say what they think
BBC News Before tucking into her dinner last week, six-year-old Paula Menchu made sure she said her prayers. She asked God to grant her peace and a less crooked president. President Otto Perez Molina has now handed in his resignation after more than four months ... Judge orders pretrial detention for Guatemalan ex-presidentFox News Latino Guatemala court jails ex-President Perez pending graft hearing | ReutersFirstpost Mired in scandal, Guatemala's president resigns (+video)Christian Science Monitor Al Jazeera America -Huffington Post -STLtoday.com all 182 news articles » |
US and Russia at odds over Arctic territory
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BANGKOK (Reuters) - Just minutes after being locked up for 30 years for insulting Thailand’s monarchy, Pongsak Sriboonpeng described what he thought was the cause of his capture: a poorly chosen Facebook friend.
Azerbaijani troops have killed an Armenian soldier in the latest border clash between the arch-foes, Armenia said September 3.
(GUATEMALA CITY) — Guatemala’s newly sworn-in president demanded that all top government officials submit their resignations and promised an honest and inclusive administration following the surprise resignation earlier Thursday of President Otto Perez Molina amid a widening fraud investigation.
President Alejandro Maldonado reached out to protesters who took to the streets against the country’s entrenched corruption, promising he would “leave a legacy of honesty” and restore faith in Guatemala’s democracy in his brief few months in office.
“You can’t consider your work done,” Maldonado said in remarks aimed at all those demanding change. “In what is left of this year, there must be a positive response.”
The unprecedented political drama played out after a week in which Perez Molina was stripped of his immunity, deserted by key members of his cabinet, and saw his jailed former vice president ordered to stand trial. All this just days before Sunday’s election to choose his successor.
As Maldonado took office, Perez Molina was in court hearing accusations that he was involved in a scheme in which businesspeople paid bribes to avoid import duties through Guatemala’s customs agency. He is the first Guatemalan president to resign.
Judge Miguel Angel Galvez ordered Perez Molina detained overnight before the hearing was to resume Friday morning. The former president was later seen entering a military barracks where he will spend the night in custody.
Galvez cited a need to “ensure the continuity of the hearing” and guarantee the former president’s personal safety.
Perez Molina reiterated his willingness to face the investigation head-on.
“I have always said I will respect due process,” he said. “I do not have the slightest intention of leaving the country.”
Earlier in the day, the retired military general insisted upon his innocence in an interview with The Associated Press during a break in the court proceedings, saying the process had been “very hard, very difficult.”
He said he could have derailed the investigation, but didn’t.
“I had things I could have done,” Perez Molina said. “I could have replaced the prosecutor, I could have dug in.”
Attorney General Thelma Aldana told reporters she will ask that Perez Molina, 64, be jailed during the court proceedings.
Analysts say the resignation was a key blow to corruption in the country and a boost for the rule of law.
“In the midst of this political crisis there is interesting and good news,” said Eric Olson, a Central America expert at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “The attorney general resisted strong pressures and even asked for the president to be incarcerated … that shows the institutions in Guatemala under the right circumstances can operate and be effective.”
Maldonado, a 79-year-old conservative former high court justice, has served as Guatemala’s foreign minister and in ambassadorial posts. He also formerly headed Guatemala’s highest court, where he presided over much-debated decisions like the one not to extradite former dictator Efrain Rios Montt.
Rios Montt faced charges in Spain for genocide, torture and terrorism committed at the height of Guatemala’s 1960-1996 civil war, and the decision against extradition was hotly criticized.
Upon taking office Thursday, Maldonado said he was going to “form a transition government and invite all the social groups that are protesting in the streets to propose young professionals to form the new administration.”
Earlier in the day, Perez Molina gave an interview to a local radio station, saying that he doesn’t “trust Guatemalan justice” and criticizing the nation’s prosecutors and the United Nations commission against impunity that have mounted a huge investigation in the fiscal fraud case he was implicated in.
He said the case was built by them to “seek prominence” and “to fill their egos.”
The corruption scandal, uncovered by prosecutors and the U.N. commission, involved a scheme known as “La Linea,” or “The Line,” in which businesspeople paid bribes to avoid import duties through the customs agency. The ring is believed to have defrauded the state of millions of dollars.
Ex-Vice President Roxana Baldetti’s former personal secretary was named as the alleged ringleader and is a fugitive. She resigned May 8 because of the same scandal and is now jailed and facing charges. She also maintains her innocence.
A growing protest movement brought together Guatemalans from all walks of life demanding that Perez Molina step down. Business leaders and even Catholic church officials had called for him to resign in recent weeks as the investigation of the customs fraud ring has grown wider and hit more officials.
Perez Molina was steadfast in his plan to stay until the judge’s unprecedented order, only deciding to resign in the middle of the night.
His spokesman told reporters the president submitted his resignation “to maintain the institution of the presidency and resolve on his own the legal proceedings leveled against him.”
Perez Molina was elected in 2011 on a platform of cracking down on crime. He is a retired general who participated in the country’s 36-year bloody civil war, and later in the march toward peace. His critics say he also took part in the mass killings of civilians, but he has never been charged with anything.
His election as president had worried leftist groups and human rights organizations because of the military’s past control of the government. But Perez Molina has been a political moderate who has kept the military at arm’s length, proposing at one point to legalize drugs to rid his country of the scourge of cartels and trafficking.
Maldonado will likely remain in office until the winner of upcoming elections is inaugurated Jan. 14, 2016. The first round is on Sunday, pitting a wealthy businessman and politician against 13 other candidates, including a comedian with no political experience, a former first lady and the daughter of an ex-dictator accused of genocide. If none of the candidates reaches 50 percent, a runoff will be held Oct. 25.
Protesters filling the streets have also demanded that Sunday’s presidential elections be postponed. Perez Molina, who was not on the ballot, has said delaying the vote would be against the law.
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White House 'Monitoring' Reports Of Russian Military In Syriaby support@pangea-cms.com (RFE/RL)
The White House said it is closely monitoring reports that Russia is carrying out military operations in Syria and warned such operations could be "destabilizing and counter-productive."
Republican presidential contender Ted Cruz blamed President Barack Obama on Thursday for a climate of violence against police, contending the president and his administration have long vilified law enforcement.
His unsparing appraisal came in an Associated Press interview between campaign stops and mere days after the slaying of a deputy in Cruz's hometown of Houston, allegedly by a man with a history of mental illness.
"There are unfortunate, tragic consequences when the president of the United States repeatedly vilifies law enforcement and when that rhetoric is amplified by the Department of Justice, when it's amplified by politicians across this country," Cruz said in the interview.
Sheriff's Deputy Darren Goforth was the sixth officer in the nation shot and killed in August alone, according to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, which tracks on-duty officer deaths. But the 25 firearms-related deaths of officers so far this year are down from 30 at this time in 2014.
The Texas senator said police have been demonized throughout Obama's presidency.
"If you look at our law enforcement, they've had six and a half years of vilification, demonization," Cruz said, speaking on the way to the airport as he jetted among three stops in Texas, where he hadn't made campaign appearances in several weeks.
"When the police withdraw because they've been demonized," he added, between long swigs from a bottle of water, "tragically the communities that pay the biggest price are minority communities that are already facing crime challenges."
Earlier in the day, White House press secretary Josh Earnest was asked about the president's thinking on the importance of protecting law enforcement through efforts such as the "blue lives matter" campaign and whether he would deliver an address on the value of officers' lives:
Earnest said the president, in an address to Congress in January, "talked about the right of a husband or wife to welcome their spouse, who serves in law enforcement, home at night." He said Obama believes "that profession and that commitment is not just worthy of our respect, it's worthy of our praise and the president is deeply grateful to law enforcement officials across the country who faithfully do that every single day."
Earnest noted that the president had spoken with Goforth's widow on Monday.
Cruz's mood was lighter earlier, as he addressed more than 1,000 screaming, sweating supporters at Fort Worth's stockyards, which date back to the 1800s and where the preferred footwear remains cowboy boots.
"We love you!" shrieked two women in the front row as Cruz strode on stage, to which the candidate shouted "and I love you, too!" before throwing his head back and exclaiming, "It is GOOD to be home."
Also Thursday, Cruz attended an East Texas tea party rally before headlining a conservative grassroots event in Houston. State Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been indicted for felony security violations allegedly committed before he took office in January, is also set to appear at the Houston rally.
Cruz has previously praised Paxton as a conservative warrior, but has been more tightlipped amid his recent legal troubles.
The first-term senator's return to Texas comes as Donald Trump has climbed to the top of state polls, mirroring his rise nationally in the GOP primary.
Cruz, who will attend a rally in Washington to protest the nuclear deal with Iran, said Thursday he invited Trump to the rally because the billionaire draws so much attention.
Cruz shrugged off suggestions he's having to defend his home state in the primary race. Asked before the rally about his rivals making frequent Texas trips, he said he's got "a tremendous base of support here and so they may discover a difficult path."
"The ethos of this great state is, 'Give me a horse, a gun and an open field and I can conquer the world,'" Cruz said, "and we need to return to those values."
———
Associated Press writer Nancy Benac contributed to this report from Washington
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