Stratfor Confirms Russia’s Expanded Presence in Syria
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Summary: The rumors have proven correct. Russia is building a base in Syria. Fourteen years of aggressive US moves in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have left the former in flames and the latter unstable. Now comes the inevitable next step, as a great power rival escalates by positioning itself to respond strongly. I doubt we’ll enjoy what comes next. We can hardly complain when others follow our example.
Confirming Russia’s Expanded Presence in Syria
Stratfor, 10 September 2015
Summary
The projection of Russian forces into Syria could be an attempt to bolster the government of President Bashar al Assad or a means to exert pressure during a time of sensitive negotiations. Either way, it will be increasingly difficult for the Russians to avoid mission creep as they magnify support for their favored faction in the Syrian conflict.
Analysis
Satellite imagery of the Bassel al Assad International Airport in Latakia, Syria, confirms reports of sustained Russian military transport flights to the Syrian airfield, where the Russians appear to be establishing a base of operations. The satellite imagery, captured Sept. 4, shows a recently constructed air traffic control station in the vicinity of newly laid asphalt surfaces, alongside shipping container-sized structures believed to be mobile housing units. Construction is underway throughout the airport; surfaces are being leveled and new structures are being erected. Earthworks are visible along the entire length of the easternmost runway, likely part of improvements to the airfield to allow the ingress of heavier transport aircraft.
Click to enlarge.
The reinforcement of the airport shows that Moscow is preparing to deploy aerial assets to Syria, if it has not already done so. To sustain an overseas presence, Moscow must establish a sustained logistical connection and have forces in place to defend it. In this case, Russia is looking to establish an air bridge, with everything that entails. Stationing Russian aerial assets — such as fighter jets and attack helicopters — inside Syria is a clear escalation of Moscow’s involvement in the country. Russia’s previous involvement was limited to the transfer of equipment, spare parts and weaponry to the Syrian government and the provision of intelligence support.
Signs of a growing Russian military presence emerged last week. Alligator- and Ropucha-class landing ships from the Black Sea Fleet, clearly laden with vehicles and equipment, were seen sailing toward Syria through the Bosporus. Photos of Russian soldiers and marines from at least two separate Russian units deployed in Syria — the 810th Marine Brigade and the 336th Guards Marine Brigade — are increasingly surfacing on social media. Russian troops have been spotted in the provinces of Latakia, Tartus, Homs and Damascus. Some Russian forces are also deployed at the Syrian Naval Academy in Latakia.
These deployments aside, Stratfor has not observed a substantial Russian presence on the battlefield, either against rebel forces or the Islamic State. As previously noted, there are signs that Russian personnel have directly engaged the rebels, but this remains uncommon. It is more likely that Moscow has embedded advisers with Syrian units on the ground rather than committed formal combat units to the fight.
Russia could be marshaling its forces and equipment in Syria ahead of the deployment of full-sized combat units that would support loyalist forces, but that is unlikely. Right now, it is more probable that the Russians are limiting their direct involvement. By establishing an air base they are in a position to deliver substantially greater supplies to Damascus’ forces, provide close air support as required, and deploy more advisers and intelligence officers to embed with loyalist forces.
Nevertheless, even this level of support is concerning for the rebel groups in Syria opposing al Assad. Russian aid to the government could erode the rebel momentum on the battlefield, just as Iranian and Hezbollah intervention did in 2013.
Increased Russian presence in Syria serves a number of purposes, but by fortifying the loyalists, Moscow hopes to better position itself in negotiations that might bring about a political solution to the conflict. Yet, by establishing a secure air bridge, Russia opens the gates for rapid intervention, should it choose. Beyond Moscow’s growing commitment, it will be increasingly difficult for the Russians to avoid mission creep as they support their favored faction in the Syrian conflict.
Confirming Russia’s Expanded Presence in Syria
is republished with permission of Stratfor.
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About Stratfor
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For More Information
A smart move by Putin: “Russia calls on US to co-operate with its military in Syria“, Financial Times, 11 September 2015.
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© AFP Olivier MorinThanks to an insulating layer of snow, winter temperatures as low as -36 degrees Celsius have not managed to freeze the vines of Finnish wine pioneer Kaarlo Nelimarkka
Vaasa (Finland) (AFP) - Snow, preferably a thick layer of it, is the recipe for successful winegrowing in western Finland, at what is believed to be the world’s northernmost winery.
Thanks to an insulating layer of snow, winter temperatures as low as -36 degrees Celsius (-33 degrees Fahrenheit) have not managed to freeze the Riesling, Merlot and Chardonnay vines of Finnish wine pioneer Kaarlo Nelimarkka, 74.
On the contrary, Nelimarkka is more concerned about the sun's rays than the winter frost piercing his Sundom winery in the town of Vaasa, just 400 kilometres (250 miles) south of the Arctic Circle.
"The winter is not a problem. The biggest problems are too short summers and the strong spring sun which can make the vine shoot out sprouts even when the soil is still frozen," the retired Vaasa town administrator tells AFP.
He can make up to 400 bottles of whites, reds and roses in a good year, combining the hardier grape varieties Madeleine Angevine, Gewurztraminer and Solaris to make his speciality, Sundom White.
He describes it as "luminous", and Finnish wine enthusiast Hannu Hokka, a former expert at Finland's state-owned alcohol monopoly Alko, said he was impressed by it.
"The taste was fine and well-balanced, to go with salads or crayfish. Without knowing better, I could have never guessed it was from a minor Finnish producer," Hokka told AFP.
There are less than a handful of winegrowers in the country, none of whom earn a living from it. At one point, Nelimarkka had hoped to make a career of it -- but European Union bureaucracy reared its head.
No matter how meticulously Nelimarkka makes his wine he is not allowed to call it 'wine' as Finland is not listed by Brussels as one of the official wine producing regions of the EU.
Because he can't sell his product, Nelimarkka instead hosts groups who pay to visit his vineyard and who can enjoy wine tastings courtesy of the house.
-- A stick in the mail --
Nelimarkka first began experimenting with Arctic winegrowing 40 years ago.
"My wife ordered some tulip bulbs from the Netherlands back in 1975 and they also advertised vines. I ordered just one and it turned out to be Pinot Noir, which is one of the most difficult varieties to cultivate, so I had to learn," he says.
He was bemused when the mailman delivered a bare stick -- which he then found out was a cutting.
"For the first 20 years I read all the instruction books and did everything accordingly but I always failed," the self-educated wine enthusiast recalls.
After decades of trial and error, Nelimarkka has devised his own methods to protect his vines from the cold.
He quickly abandoned the idea of growing medium-height trunks common in traditional wine producing regions, and began cutting his vines down to under 30 centimetres (one foot) for the winter.
He also piles heat-retaining stones under the vines to protect them from the humidity and cold, and covers them partly with white plastic tarpaulin for the winter.
-- More sun than Sicily --
In summer, the midnight sun comes to the rescue, offering up to 20 hours of daylight per day at Sundom's latitude.
Nelimarkka calculated that between March and September, there are an average of 30 days more daylight at his vineyard than what winegrowers around the Sicilian city of Palermo in southern Italy enjoy.
But this summer, Mother Nature has offered up another challenge for the resourceful viticulturist to overcome: an excess of rain.
While much of southern Europe had to contend with sweltering heatwaves, Finnish meteorologists recorded June and July as the coldest summer months in 50 years, with rainfall almost every day.
If an unusually warm end of the season was to save the harvest, he could be picking his grapes -- he picks all the grapes himself -- in early October, a few weeks later than usual.
He then ferments his wine in big glass jugs, forgoing traditional oak casks because he found that process too difficult.
When Nelimarkka first took up winemaking four decades ago, wine was a foreign oddity for many in Finland, where beer and vodka were the drinks of choice and where the state still holds a monopoly on retail alcohol sales.
While beer consumption has slightly declined, nearly 50 percent of all alcohol drunk in Finland is still beer. Meanwhile, the share of wine has risen from only 11 percent in 1995 to 19 percent in 2014.
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BEIRUT (AP) - Russian forces are working to expand the tarmac of a major airport in Syria's coastal province of Latakia, a stronghold of President Bashar Assad and his minority sect, a prominent Syrian monitoring group said Sunday.
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BEIRUT (AP) — Russian forces are working to expand the tarmac of a major airport in Syria’s coastal province of Latakia, a stronghold of President Bashar Assad and his minority Alawite sect, a prominent Syrian monitoring group said Sunday.
The report comes amid rising concern among US officials of increased Russian military activity in Syria. President Barack Obama cast the buildup as an effort to prop up the embattled leader, warning Moscow against doubling down on Assad.
Russia, a longtime backer of Syria’s government, denies it’s trying to bolster Assad and instead says its increased military activity is part of the international effort to defeat the Islamic State group, the militant group that has wreaked havoc in both Syria and Iraq.
The Associated Press reported earlier this week, quoting a former Lebanese general with knowledge of the Syrian military, that there were plans to build a military base in the coastal town of Jableh, more than 20 kilometers south of Latakia city. It is where the airport currently under development is located.
The airport, known by its old name Hemeimeem, already houses a military base, and has come under shelling from militants who have advanced in the countryside of the province.
It is the second most important government controlled airport in Syria after Damascus airport. The Hemeimeem airport was renamed the Basel al-Assad International airport, after the brother of the current president, who died in a car accident in 1994. According to the Syrian Civil Aviation Authority website, the airport’s tarmac is currently 2,800 meters (3,000 yards) long and 45 meters (49 yards) wide. It only has one terminal, according to the site.
The head of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdurrahman, said witnesses, including officials inside the airport, describe the tarmac development as planned to ensure larger planes can land in the airport.
“It could mean there will be more supplies or that they want to turn it into an international airport,” Abdurrahman said.
The witnesses told the Observatory no Syrian military or civilian officials are allowed near the tarmac. The Observatory relies on a network of activists and witnesses on the ground to report on the Syrian civil war, now in its fifth year. More than 250,000 people were killed in the violence, and nearly half of Syria’s pre-war population of 23 million has been displaced from their homes. About 4 million of them are refugees in neighboring countries.
Abdurrahman said there are other plans to develop another rural airport east of Latakia city.
The Alawite sect, from which Assad and his family descend, makes up about 13 percent of Syria’s pre-war population. It has historically been centered in towns and villages of Syria’s mountainous coast that make up the provinces of Latakia and Tartous. If the regime falls, that heartland could become a refuge for the community — and even for Assad himself — from which to fight for survival against a Sunni rebel insurgency and majority population that has long resented their domination.
Abdurrahman said Russian planes arrived in recent weeks carrying military equipment and hundreds of Russian military advisers. He said the experts are also believed to be studying the expansion of the Damascus international airport.
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press.
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The suspense over the immediate fate of President Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran is over; last week, Republicans in Congress tried to block the deal from moving forward, and failed. But the bitter, polarized debate over the deal will continue; the complexity of the agreement and the need to make sure Iran complies with its provisions mean it will remain a live issue for the foreseeable future.
Some Republicans have gleefully dubbed the Iran deal the "Obamacare of foreign policy" — an unpopular measure that will allow them to blame Democrats for anything that goes wrong in the Middle East from now on.
The analogy applies to more than just the short-term politics of the deal. Like Obamacare, the nuclear agreement will take years to implement, and it will be years before its results can be fully judged. As with Obamacare, even a Republican president may hesitate before tearing up the agreement once it's working, even if imperfectly. (Some GOP candidates, including Donald Trump and Jeb Bush, have suggested that they'd keep the deal but try to negotiate new terms.) Finally, as with Obamacare, Republicans plan to show their disapproval any way they can. They have already promised more votes this week to try to derail the agreement, even though they know their efforts are doomed.
But Republicans won't be content with symbolic opposition; they're also proposing legislation that could undermine the deal before it goes fully into effect.
Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has said he will start by pushing for a 10-year renewal of the 1996 Iran Sanctions Act, the legislative umbrella for many U.S. economic sanctions against Iran.
That will put Democrats in a ticklish spot. Even the Obama administration agrees that the sanctions law should be renewed — just not yet. (The law doesn't expire until the end of next year.) Officials worry that an early vote to extend the law would allow hard-liners in Tehran to charge that the United States doesn't intend to end sanctions even if Iran complies with its end of the bargain.
Worse, several other GOP senators, including presidential candidate Marco Rubio, have said they will propose new sanctions to punish Iran for its non-nuclear meddling in the Middle East. The problem is that non-nuclear sanctions are already in place, and Iran's government has said it would consider new sanctions an underhanded way of restoring measures the nuclear deal is supposed to lift. It's hard to avoid seeing most of these proposals as gambits designed to provoke Iran to pull out.
If Corker or Rubio succeed, "the Iranians will surely react with outrage," Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution, predicted. "The real uncertainty is exactly how far Tehran will push."
Iranian officials, she said, might respond by declaring that they are free to pick and choose which parts of the deal to observe, leading to a death spiral of noncompliance on both sides.
Obama has said that he too intends to be tough on Iran — just not in a way that would endanger the agreement.
"My administration will take whatever means are necessary" to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, "including military means," he pledged in a letter to members of Congress last month. "We will maintain powerful sanctions targeting Iran's support for groups such as Hezbollah … and its human rights abuses at home."
But the president's long-term goal, aides say, is making it possible for Iran to move in a more moderate direction — and, eventually, to make U.S. sanctions unnecessary.
The vital question, they say, is what kind of Iran the U.S. will face in 15 years, when many of the deal's main provisions expire: an Iran that concludes that renouncing nuclear weapons was a good decision, or one that believes the United States is determined to punish it with sanctions no matter what it does.
So the agreement's survival in Congress is only the beginning of a long process. It won't be easy for this president and his successor to make the deal work. Critics can't be expected to stop criticizing a deal they abhor. Still, they ought to give it a chance to succeed — instead of undermining it even before it has gone into effect.
Twitter: @doylemcmanus
Follow the Opinion section on Twitter @latimesopinion and Facebook
Copyright © 2015, Los Angeles Times
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A work crew was laboring overtime Saturday to complete an 11.5-foot high fence, topped with razor wire strands, spanning the 110 miles of Hungary’s border with Serbia.
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