Headlines - 5:02 PM 10/28/2015: Obama fumbles for credibility in Syria as Russia and Iran seize initiative | US news | The Guardian | Iran Accepts Invitation to Join U.S. and Russia in Talks on Syria’s Future - The New York Times | Oil rises nearly 6% after EIA data shows distillate draw
Under withering fire from political opponents, Barack Obama is once again shuffling his Syria cards, hoping against hope that he can salvage US credibility from the wreckage of his twin failures to defeat Isis terror and topple Bashar al-Assad.
Fear is driving Obama’s latest rethink: fear that Russia and Iran are winning the strategic tug-of-war for decisive influence in both Syria and Iraq; and fear that his Middle East legacy will be an anarchic arc of muddle and mayhem stretching from Mosul to the Mediterranean...
Obama’s many critics say his visceral fear of the Middle East quagmire has allowed Iran and Russia to run rings around him. Veteran columnist Charles Krauthammer was typically scathing: “Obama’s response to all this? Nothing. He has washed his hands of the region, still the centre of world oil production and trade, and still the world’s most volatile region, seething with virulent jihadism ready for export,” Krauthammer wrote.
“When you call something a quagmire, you have told the world that you’re out and staying out. Russia and Iran will have their way.”
M.N.: Mr. Tisdall's article runs more on his rhetoric than dispassionate rational analysis. After all, to quote LBJ, “it's probably better to have him [Iran] inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.” It probably also better to split Russia-Iran into two separate representative entities, despite the perception of Iran's undue empowerment than to have it to be represented by Russia alone, which it would do anyway.
With all the fair and unfair criticism directed at Mr. Obama, I think that his strength is in addressing and dealing with essences and ignoring the appearances and perceptions (as much as he can afford it), which, due to the nature of this dilemma is perceived as a weakness in itself. A more serious drawback is his administration's tendency to be reactive rather than proactive.
Conversely, Mr. Putin relies very much on appearances and perceptions at the expense of essences and this inherent weakness is perceived as strength. But "proactive" he is, at times defensively - paranoidly.
Let us wait and see what happens without the premature and excessive dramatizing.
What is interesting, oil started going up soon after this article was published, not because of it, but perceptually triggered by the perspective notion of Russian-Iranian gain in influence and control over the Middle East, its oil supplies and oil prices, in complex with other news and developments. (As Allan Greenspan once said, with the deep sense of irony which was lost on his listeners, at one of his Congressional hearings, "if it is the matter of perception, then it is my fault" - apparently, he felt that creating the perceptions was a part of his duties.)
In fact oil price hike is most likely one to three days short covering rally which was ripe due to internal market dynamics and was most likely facilitated by "the little help" from the oil bulls and their financial friends who caught the moment to punish the shorters. However the article's power of emotional rhetoric, together with other news and bulls' financial pressure, probably did play its role. Traders are emotional just as they are rational, and maintaining the right balance at the right time is the part and point of their trade.
It always amazed me how susceptible humans are to the hypnotism of artful words and poetry, the religious texts being the prime example. But maybe this is one of the qualities that make us human.
- Iran to take a seat among world...
- Iran Accepts Invitation to Join U.S. and Russia in Talks on Syria’s Future - The New York Times
- Oil rises nearly 6% after EIA data shows distillate draw
Light sweet crude (barrel): 45.73+2.53+5.86% At 12:52 PM ET
Under withering fire from political opponents, Barack Obama is once again shuffling his Syria cards, hoping against hope that he can salvage US credibility from the wreckage of his twin failures to defeat Isis terror and topple Bashar al-Assad.
Fear is driving Obama’s latest rethink: fear that Russia and Iran are winning the strategic tug-of-war for decisive influence in both Syria and Iraq; and fear that his Middle East legacy will be an anarchic arc of muddle and mayhem stretching from Mosul to the Mediterranean...
Obama’s many critics say his visceral fear of the Middle East quagmire has allowed Iran and Russia to run rings around him. Veteran columnist Charles Krauthammer was typically scathing: “Obama’s response to all this? Nothing. He has washed his hands of the region, still the centre of world oil production and trade, and still the world’s most volatile region, seething with virulent jihadism ready for export,” Krauthammer wrote.
“When you call something a quagmire, you have told the world that you’re out and staying out. Russia and Iran will have their way.”
With all the fair and unfair criticism directed at Mr. Obama, I think that his strength is in addressing and dealing with essences and ignoring the appearances and perceptions (as much as he can afford it), which, due to the nature of this dilemma is perceived as a weakness in itself. A more serious drawback is his administration's tendency to be reactive rather than proactive.
Conversely, Mr. Putin relies very much on appearances and perceptions at the expense of essences and this inherent weakness is perceived as strength. But "proactive" he is, at times defensively - paranoidly.
Let us wait and see what happens without the premature and excessive dramatizing.
What is interesting, oil started going up soon after this article was published, not because of it, but perceptually triggered by the perspective notion of Russian-Iranian gain in influence and control over the Middle East, its oil supplies and oil prices, in complex with other news and developments. (As Allan Greenspan once said, with the deep sense of irony which was lost on his listeners, at one of his Congressional hearings, "if it is the matter of perception, then it is my fault" - apparently, he felt that creating the perceptions was a part of his duties.)
In fact oil price hike is most likely one to three days short covering rally which was ripe due to internal market dynamics and was most likely facilitated by "the little help" from the oil bulls and their financial friends who caught the moment to punish the shorters. However the article's power of emotional rhetoric, together with other news and bulls' financial pressure, probably did play its role. Traders are emotional just as they are rational, and maintaining the right balance at the right time is the part and point of their trade.
It always amazed me how susceptible humans are to the hypnotism of artful words and poetry, the religious texts being the prime example. But maybe this is one of the qualities that make us human.
Looks more like "oil short covering rally" (GS) than a reversal of a long-term (1 year) trend, triggers might be complex, including recent political aspects; future(s) will show.
Reviews
Syria war
- The Military Escalation in Iraq and Syria - NYTimes.com
- US signals shift in Syria-Iraq campaign against Islamic State - BBC News
- US mulls direct ground raids in fight against Isis in Syria and Iraq | World news | The Guardian
- On the front line: Fighting ISIS in Syria - CNN.com
- Obama Anti-Islamic State War Strategy Failing
- Military solution 'impossible' in parts of Middle East: CIA chief - Yahoo News
- Turkey Confirms Strikes Against Kurdish Militias in Syria - NYTimes.com
- ISIS Captives Say They Faced Blade as Rescue Came - NYTimes.com
- ISIS rooted in Arab Spring, gained momentum due to double standards - Russian Security Service head — RT News
- CIA, Saudis Launch Proxy War Against Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia | American Free Press
Cybersecurity
- Senate Approves a Cybersecurity Bill Long in the Works and Largely Dated - NYTimes.com
- Senate Passes Controversial Cybersecurity Bill (CISA)
- Governments struggle to create rules for cyber warfare - ET Blogs
- US Senate passes cyber security bill despite privacy concerns : The Hindu - Mobile edition
- TalkTalk hacker suspect is a video game addict who rarely leaves his bedroom | Daily Mail Online
- Hacking: A Common And Avoidable Problem
Other news
- Effects of Greater Scrutiny of Police - NYTimes.com
- In Waves of Migrants, Children Arrive Alone and Settle In Uneasily - NYTimes.com
- Ya’alon: Terrorists wielding missiles, nuclear attacks face Israel
- Turkey takes over opposition TV stations ahead of election
- Russian intelligence chief: IS may invade Central Asia - The Washington Post
- German vice chancellor heads to Russia for energy talks - The Washington Post
- America safer because of police officers: Obama - The Times of India on Mobile
- FBI Joins Statewide Manhunt, Schools Cancelled - LEX18.com | Continuous News and StormTracker Weather
- Impeach IRS Chief, Say Republicans Alleging Lies, Obstruction - Forbes
- Freedom House Report: Internet Freedom Declines
- Information Warfare: Facebook And Islamic Terrorism
- Ben Carson edges out Trump as Republican frontrunner | Americas | DW.COM | 28.10.2015
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