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Some of the most compelling photographs from RFE/RL's broadcast region and beyond for the 42nd week of 2015. For more photo galleries, see our "Picture This" archive by clicking on the banner above.
Our latest report shows that 96 officers were killed in the line of duty last year.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The chairman of the panel investigating the deadly 2012 Benghazi attacks said Sunday that new information reveals a "total disconnect" between the security needs of U.S. personnel on the ground and the political priorities of Hillary Rodham Clinton's State Department staff in Washington.
Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., ...
A conservative cable news pundit, whom federal prosecutors accused last week of fabricating a life story of being a former deep-cover CIA officer, now sits in jail, unable to publicly address the felony charges against him.
But in a December 2013 email query by The Washington Times, Wayne Shelby Simmons ...
When the doorbell rang, it was longer and harder than normal, like someone was ramming an angry finger on the button. Then the window suddenly was smashed and the police were inside the house.
It was eight years ago in Tehran, but Parisa Kohandel, who was just nine at the ...
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WASHINGTON (AP) - Chinese hacking attempts on American corporate intellectual property have occurred with regularity over the past three weeks, suggesting that China almost immediately began violating its newly minted cyberagreement with the United States, according to a newly published analysis by a cybersecurity company with close ties to the ...
WASHINGTON (AP) - Chinese hacking attempts on American corporate intellectual property have occurred with regularity over the past three weeks, suggesting that China almost immediately began violating its newly minted cyberagreement with the United States, according to a newly published analysis by a cybersecurity company with close ties to the ...
WASHINGTON (AP) - When the House Select Committee on Benghazi holds its first public hearing in nearly 10 months, the spotlight will focus on a sole witness - Hillary Rodham Clinton, former first lady and senator, secretary of state and presidential contender.
But the panel's 12 members - seven Republicans ...
The clashes between Israelis and Palestinians in the Holy Land are not just physical; the two sides cannot agree on what they see, how they got here, who is to blame or where they should go.
To many Israelis, the wave of knifings betrays a hatred of Jews by a ...
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) - A Syrian military official and activists say government forces are advancing under the cover of Russian airstrikes toward an air base besieged by the Islamic State group in northern Syria.
The military official said the army captured the village of Bkayze which is about seven kilometers ...
Senior Iranian officials continue to lash out against the recent nuclear deal even as the Obama administration begins to implement it, according to a series of statements by the Islamic Republic’s leaders.
The aggressive rhetoric comes as the Obama administration celebrated on Sunday the implementation of the deal, hailing it as a “milestone” in U.S. diplomatic history. However, Iran has balked.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took to his Twitter and Facebook pages to post an announcement titled, “Negotiation with America is Forbidden,” according to translations of the documents provided by the Middle East Media Research Institute.
Other Iranian officials have demanded that the U.S. completely terminate economic sanctions, rather than suspend them, per the nuclear deal.
Some Iranian leaders have stated that President Obama will announce this week the full termination of sanctions, a move that would likely spark anger on Capitol Hill.
Critics of the deal maintain that Iran’s continued threats of violence against America and Israel could derail the agreement. Iran also has, in recent days, tested ballistic missiles, which is prohibited under United Nations resolutions and potentially a violation of the accord.
“For America negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran means penetration. This is their definition of negotiation and they want to open the way for imposition,” Khameniei declared on October 16, just two days before the deal went into effect. “Negotiation with America is forbidden, because of its countless detriments and because of alleged advantages of which it has none whatsoever.”
The institute, among others, has warned that these statements could mean that Iran will not honor the deal, even as the United States waives sanctions and releases more than $150 billion to Iran.
It is unclear whether Iran will officially announce its adoption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the institute said in an analysis of Khamenei’s remarks. “It is also not clear whether the U.S. will announce its suspension of sanctions and the E.U. will announce its termination of sanctions, as per the agreement,” the institute said.
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a senior Iranian cleric who is secretary general of Iran’s Guardian Council, said that declarations by the U.S. administration do not mean Iran is ready to begin upholding the agreement.
“There are those who think that approval by the [Iranian Parliament] means approval of the execution of the agreement in Iran. This is not so,” Jannati said on Friday in Tehran. “Approval regarding the nuclear agreement is not [approval of] its execution.”
“The nuclear agreement was discussed in the Supreme National Security Council and council members expressed their opinion about it and gave their approval regarding its execution,” he continued. “But Leader [Khamenei] still has not signed it.”
Iran continues to insist that sanctions be fully terminated and not reimposed in any manner going forward.
“The termination of the sanctions must be taken seriously. If they are terminated, it is a sign that the nuclear talks and agreement have yielded results,” Jannati said. “But if the other side breaks its promises and instead of terminating the sanctions [merely] freezes or suspends them, this shows that the nuclear agreement was useless.”
Nejatollah Ebrahimian, a spokesman for the Guardian Council, said on Saturday that the joint plan “remains a political document, not a legal one” because Iran has not officially approved it.
Jannati and other leaders have expressed concern that the U.S. will try to force Iran to end its support to terror groups such as Hezbollah.
“If we do not stand fast against the other side, then the next day they will say that we must officially recognize Israel, give equal rights to men and women, cancel executions, sever relations with Hizbullah, and so on,” he said.
Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, also said in recent days that Iran has not approved the accord.
“We have not approved the [joint plan] in the way that the other side has said,” Larijani was quoted as saying by the institute. “We also have not said that it should be executed as is, but rather that the [plan] should be placed in the framework of the steps taken by the Supreme National Security Council. Ultimately, this council’s approvals are sent for the approval of the Leader.”
The post Iranian Leaders Refuse To Uphold Nuclear Deal appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.
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ISIS Arose Within the Fissures Between Middle Eastern Societies by therearenosunglasses
Competition among major Middle East players fuels the rise of ISIS The Wall Street Journal Pretty much everyone in the Middle East is supposed to be fighting against Islamic State. Yet, the Sunni extremist group retains large swaths of Syria and Iraq and is spreading elsewhere in the region. This isn’t because of its military […]
Posted 10/18/2015
The KC-46A Pegasus deploys the centerline boom for the first time Oct. 9, 2015. The boom is the fastest way to refuel aircraft at 1,200 gallons per minute. (Boeing photo/John D. Parker)
The strategy will include measures to withdraw the passports of teenagers believed to be at risk of joining jihadist groups abroad.
In a historic first, the parliament of the European Union (EU) has waived the immunity of one of its elected members over “reasonable suspicions” that he may have spied for Russia.
Celebrity Cafe - Entertainment News (blog) |
Trey Gowdy: How Did 7 Congressional Committees Miss Amb. Chris Stevens' Emails ...
Daily Caller Gowdy, the chairman of the House Select Committee on Benghazi, said that Stevens' emails show that he requested additional security as soon as he was appointed the ambassadorship in June 2012. ... on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, the ... Gowdy: Benghazi probe, Clinton testimony, is about factsOR-Politics.com Clinton aide Huma Abedin testifies before Benghazi committeeCelebrity Cafe - Entertainment News (blog) all 217 news articles » |
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Russia to hold talks with Egypt on the possible purchase by Cairo of the Russian equipment for the Mistral helicopter carriers.
Nearly 40 Japanese warships showcased their power during the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) fleet review 25 miles southwest of Tokyo on Sunday.
Syrian forces have carried out a series of successful mop-up operations against Takfiri terrorists across the country, media reports say.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has criticized the US-led airstrikes against alleged Daesh positions in Syria and Iraq, saying the aerial campaign has failed to end the Takfiri group's terrorist activities in crisis-hit zones.
The palace complex to the north of Baghdad has been retaken by the fighters of Shiite militias, Sunni tribes and the Iraqi army. According to reports, terrorists suffered serious losses.
October 19, 2015, 11:01 AM (IDT)
Unusual leads pointing to the Gaza Strip slowed the process of identifying the gunman, who murdered Sgt. Omri Levy, 19, from Sdeh Hamad and injured 10 victims at the Beersheba bus station Sunday night, Oct. 18:
Monday morning, he was named as Muhand Al- Uqabi, 21, who was born in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza to an expatriate Bedouin woman. debkafile: He is believed to have acted for a new Iranian-Hizballah backed terror movement called Al-Sabirin.
Monday morning, he was named as Muhand Al- Uqabi, 21, who was born in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza to an expatriate Bedouin woman. debkafile: He is believed to have acted for a new Iranian-Hizballah backed terror movement called Al-Sabirin.
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October 19, 2015, 12:42 PM (IDT)
Israeli sources said Monday that Hamas has instructed its members in the West Bank, especially inJerusalem and the areas of Hebron and Nablus, to go back to the old intifada tactic of suicide attacks against Israeli targets.
October 19, 2015, 3:33 PM (IDT)
Moderate Syrian rebel groups have received new shipments of US-made antitank missiles during the past few days but they are not enough to have a significant impact against the ongoing government offensive south of Aleppo, reports said Sunday.
The missiles were said to have been provided to groups allied with the Free Syrian Army by countries opposing President Bashar Assad.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Syrians are estimated to have fled from their homes over the past few days alone since the start of the offensive by Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah troops in northwest Syria.
The missiles were said to have been provided to groups allied with the Free Syrian Army by countries opposing President Bashar Assad.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Syrians are estimated to have fled from their homes over the past few days alone since the start of the offensive by Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah troops in northwest Syria.
Washington Post |
China still trying to hack US firms despite Xi's vow to refrain, analysts say
Washington Post Chinese hackers have targeted at least seven U.S. companies since President Xi Jinping vowed last month in Washington that his country would not conduct cyber-economic espionage — the theft of trade secrets and intellectual property for the benefit of ... China tried to hack US firms even after cyber pact: CrowdStrikeReuters China tried to hack US companies even after cyber pactBusiness Insider Chinese hackers tried to penetrate US companies even after cyber pact ...ABC Online all 69 news articles » |
 Huffington Post |
New battle over claim that Clinton mishandled CIA secrets
The Hill “Specifically, the CIA confirmed that 'the State Department consulted with the CIA on this production, the CIA reviewed these documents, and the CIA made no redactions to protect classified information,'” Cummings said in a scathing letter to Gowdy. CIA shrugs off Clinton's “classified” emailYahoo Politics Top Dem Slams Benghazi Committee Chair For False Claim Against Hillary ClintonHuffington Post Rep. Elijah Cummings Debunks Right-Wing Media's Claim That Clinton Sent ...Media Matters for America Daily Caller -ThinkProgress all 409 news articles » |
Russia And Saudi Aren't Going To Play Nice: Competition Between Them Is Fierce
Seeking Alpha Why Russia and Saudi Arabia aren't going to agree to production cuts and never had any intentions to do so. Russia has been taking Asian market share for years. Saudi Arabia is going to Russia's European backyard and increasing supply there. and more » |
 Telegraph.co.uk |
Oil nations feel the strain of Opec's continuing price war
Telegraph.co.uk Almost a year ago Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela's long-serving former oil minister, emerged from a tense meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) looking red faced and furious. Within the privacy of Opec's steel-clad ... and more » |
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Venezuela calls on Opec to control output, seeks $70 floor price
Business Recorder (press release) (blog) Venezuela, whose economy has been decimated by low oil prices, this month will unveil a bold new strategy to revive them, taking a page from Opec's history books with a proposed price band to build an automatic floor for prices at $70 a barrel. and more » |
Everyone wrote off the Syrian army. Take another look now
The Independent While the world still rages on at Russia's presumption in the Middle East – to intervene in Syria instead of letting the Americans decide which dictators should survive or die – we've all been forgetting the one institution in that Arab land which ... and more » |
Saudis attack Russia's oil markets
Bangkok Post As President Vladimir Putin tries to restore Russia as a major player in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is starting to attack Russia's traditional stomping ground by supplying lower-priced crude oil to Poland. At a recent investment forum, Igor Sechin ... and more » |
Correction: Syria story
The Republic The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and activist news platform SyrianRevolution Talbiseh said warplanes believed to be Russian targeted mourners at a funeral in Homs province's al-Ghanto village, killing four civilians. Homs-based ... and more » |
 Wall Street Journal |
Syrian Regime, Backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, Expands Ground Offensive ...
Wall Street Journal Syrian pro-regime forces backed by Russian airstrikes have expanded their ground offensive to the strategic city of Aleppo, one of the clearest signs yet of how Russia's recent military intervention has emboldened President Bashar al-Assad and his ... Russia Bombs, ISIS GainsDaily Beast Russia Shows Early Success, New Capabilities in SyriaDefenseNews.com US seeks talks with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey on Syria – KerryRT NBCNews.com -International Business Times- The Independent all 5,516 news articles » |
 Financial Times |
Foreign groups eye scaling back Russian operations
Financial Times After 18 tumultuous months during which the country has been hit by trade embargoes alongside a plummeting oil price and currency, Russia faces a “critical fork in the road” with more groups likely to step back from the market, says advisory group ... |
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Across-the-board spending cuts are squeezing the Pentagon’s budget, while a war-weary nation is showing little eagerness to sustain a global, war-ready crouch.
“Two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter…”
November 27, oil consuming countries will celebrate the first anniversary of the Saudi decision to let market forces determine prices. This decision set crude prices on a downward path. Subsequently, to defend market share, the Saudis increased production, which exacerbated market oversupply and further pressured prices.
While the sharp decline in crude prices has saved crude consuming nations hundreds of billions of dollars, the loss in revenues has caused crude exporting countries intense economic and financial pain. Their suffering has led some to call for a change in strategy to “balance” the market and boost prices. Venezuela, an OPEC member, has even proposed an emergency summit meeting.
In practice, the call for a change is a call for Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two dominant global crude exporters, which each daily export over seven-plus mmbbls (including condensates and NGLs) and which each see the other as the key to any “balancing” moves, to bear the brunt of any production cuts.
Both, it would seem, have incentive to do so, as each has lost over $100 billion in crude revenues in 2015—and Russia bears the extra burden of U.S. and EU Ukraine-related economic and financial sanctions. Yet, while both publicly profess willingness to discuss market conditions, neither has shown any real inclination to reduce output—in fact, both countries seem committed to keeping their feet pressed to their crude output pedals. In the course of 2015, both have raised output and exports over 2014 levels—Saudi Arabia by ~500 and 550~ mbbls/day respectively and Russia by ~100 and ~150. The Saudis have repeatedly cut pricing to undercut competitors to maintain market share in the critical U.S. and China markets, while the Russian Finance Ministry recently backed away from a tax proposal which Russian crude producers said would reduce their output.
This apparent bravado notwithstanding, the two countries’ entry into the low-price Crudedome is ravaging their economies. Should crude prices decline from current levels, or even just stagnate, it is possible neither country will exit the CrudeDome under its own power.
IMF WEO Data: Recessions as far as the Eyes can See
Both Saudi Arabia and Russia paint positive portraits on current and future economic performance. At a conference in Moscow on October 14, President Putin said that Russia had reached if not passed the peak of its economic crisis and predicted economic growth in coming years. Arab News announced in the first paragraph of its report on Q2 Saudi economic performance that Q2 GDP grew 3.79 percent year-over-year, up from 2.3 percent growth in Q1.
Yet IMF October 2015 and April 2015 World Economic Outlook projections for the Russian and Saudi economies a paint pessimistic portrait, as the following three tables, forecasting GDP through 2020 in current prices/national currency, constant prices/national currency, and current prices/US$ show (all data in billions).
- In each of the data series, except the April and October ones, Russian current prices/national currency and the Saudi constant prices/national currency series, GDP declines from 2014 to 2015. (When adjusted for estimated inflation, however, the forecasts for Russian GDP current prices/national currency show GDP declining from 2014 levels—to 64,039 billion Rubles given inflation of 17.943 percent in the April series; in the October series, to 64,463 billion rubles, given inflation of 15.789 percent. The growth shown in the Saudi constant prices/national currency series results from the reduction in the deflator, which the Saudi National Statistical Office, Central Department of Statistics and Information uses to convert current national currency GDP into constant national currency. For example, decreasing the deflator from 115.073 to 94.234 in the October series and to 97.066 from 115.889 in the April series turns a decrease in GDP in current prices into an increase in GDP in constant prices).
- Between the April and the October forecasts in most of the data series, GDP deteriorates (blue font). Crude prices bear much of the responsibility: the April forecasts were based on $58.14 and $65.65 per barrel oil in 2015 and 2016 respectively, while the October projections are based $51.62 and $50.36 respectively.
- The year in which GDP exceeds 2014 GDP is noted in red font. As a result of the deterioration in GDP forecasts between April and October in the Saudi current prices/national currency series, GDP does not exceed 2014 GDP until 2018 instead of 2017; in the Russian current prices, US$ series, GDP exceeds 2014 level after 2020 instead of 2019; in the Saudi current prices/US$, the recovery is pushed to 2018 from 2017. (In inflation adjusted terms, Russian GDP in current prices, national currency would be below 2015 levels in 2020).
(Click Image To Enlarge)
In Russia, the impact of low crude revenues on GDP has raised questions about Russia’s long term economic prospects. Some see Russia’s economic growth potential as 1 percent annually or less due to low energy prices, low productivity levels, and a shrinking population, while Alexei Kudrin, finance minister from 2001 to 2011, recently commented that Russia’s growth model for the last fifteen years—using income from energy exports to drive up wages, domestic demand and therefore growth—will no longer work. With the government strapped for funds, and energy income no longer supporting domestic demand, some see investment as the sole possible driver of growth.
IMF WEO Data: Budget Deficits as far as the Eyes can See
Both the Saudi and Russian governments depend on energy revenues to fund their budgets—oil funds ~90 percent of the Saudi budget and oil and natural gas ~52 percent of the Russian budget. With the decline in prices, the Saudi budget anticipates a deficit of 20 percent of GDP in 2015 and the Russian budget a deficit of 3.3 percent of GDP. The April and October WEO budget projections in national currencies (Rubles and Riyals) show the deficits decreasing, but continuing through 2020 for both countries:
(Click Image To Enlarge)
The following table shows that as a percentage of GDP, the deficits decline steadily through 2020. However, as a percentage of GDP, the WEO October projections show the Saudi deficits remain double-digit through 2020—the potential impact of which will be discussed in the section on currencies.
(Click Image To Enlarge)
As planning for the 2016 fiscal year proceeds, fiscal reality is forcing both governments to scramble for new sources of revenues and/or opportunities to cut spending to reduce their budget deficits. The Russian government suspended the budget rule using a long term average of crude prices to set spending, since the resulting $80 average price would have dictated unreasonable spending in 2016.
President Putin ordered a 10 percent cut in Interior Ministry personnel, imposed a one million headcount ceiling on this ministry, and planned cuts in Kremlin headcount. The Finance Ministry sought a change in the mineral extraction tax formula to generate an additional 609 billion rubles in 2015 and 1.6 trillion through 2018, but pressure from the Economic and Energy Ministries and Russian producers forced the Finance Ministry to consider alternatives with less negative impact on crude production. In addition, the government reportedly is taking some $13 billion from national pension funds, while the Russian Central Bank is preparing proposals on government pension guarantees that would shift some pension funding burden from the government budget to companies and individuals.
The Saudi government is also scrambling. After an eight year hiatus from issuing sovereign debt, the Saudi government announced a plan during the summer to borrow $28 billion in 2015 and launched the borrowing with a $5 billion offering in August. The Ministry of Finance has banned contracts for new projects, hiring and promotions, and purchase of vehicles or furniture in the fourth quarter, while the newly created Council for Economic and Development Affairs must now approve all government projects worth more than $27 million. The Saudi government also is preparing to privatize airports and contemplating seeking private financing for infrastructure projects.
The budget situation puts the Saudi government in a difficult situation. On the one hand, the size of the deficits requires drastic cuts in spending, but such drastic cuts would impact politically sensitive areas such as energy subsidies, government employment opportunities for Saudi citizens, education, and economic development projects. On the other hand, depleting Saudi government reserves to finance the deficits will put the Saudi sovereign credit rating at risk, which would raise the cost of borrowing as well as pressure the Saudi currency (the consequences of which are discussed below).
IMF WEO Data: Lagging Per Capita Income as far as the Eyes can See
In both Russia and Saudi Arabia, the governments have attempted to shield their citizens from job cuts. In Russia, the government has discouraged businesses from shedding employees, while the Saudi government has maintained headcount in the government and government-related bodies, where most Saudis nationals are employed.
In terms of income, however, the situation is different. IMF WEO projections show per capita income in 2015 declining from 2014 levels in both Russia and Saudi Arabia, and only slowly recovering (the year exceeding 2014 levels in red font). (The increases in per capita income in the Russia current prices, national currency and in the Saudi constant prices, national currency series results from the same factors discussed in the section on GDP).
(Click Image To Enlarge)
Impact on Currencies
The steep decline in crude prices has pressured both currencies. The Ruble (?) has suffered two curses. First, it has declined substantially relative to “hard” currencies, such as the US$, the Euro, British Pound, and the Swiss Franc. Against the U.S. dollar, it depreciated ~29 percent from November 27, 2014 to October 13, 2015 (?48.58/US$, to ?62.77). Second, it has been and continues to be highly volatile, its fate tied to moves in crude prices. The Ruble reached its post-November 27 low on June 27 (?33.73/US$) and twice reached its high of ~?70/US$ (January 30 ?69.47, August 24 ?70.89). A chart is available on Bloomberg.
The pressure on the Ruble forced the Russian Central Bank to take a series of emergency measures. At the end of last year, it spent ~$100 billion from its foreign currency reserves to defend the Ruble (it finally abandoned the defense when it proved futile and allowed the Ruble to float). In the same period, it extended emergency “hard” currency funding to major Russian banks and businesses with “hard” currency obligations that were coming due at the end of 2014. The Central Bank also sharply raised interest rates—to 17 percent at one point—and has kept the rates high to defend the Ruble (currently ~11 percent). Two examples illustrate the impact of Ruble devaluation:
- Transaero, until recently Russia’s second largest passenger airline, attributed being forced into bankruptcy to high interest rates and a devalued Ruble—the former raised the cost of financing, the latter pushed up prices in Rubles and therefore reduced demand in Russia for international flights and increased the cost, in Rubles, of repaying foreign currency denominated loans and interest.
- The Association of European Businesses in Russia recently announced that sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles contracted 29 percent in August year-over-year and forecast a 37 percent decline for all of 2015. It cited price increases that the car manufactures were forced to take to cover the increased cost of foreign parts and systems used in domestic auto manufacturing.
Volatility is equally pernicious. As another Bloomberg article points out, Russian businesses, unsure of what the value of the Ruble will be long term or even day-to-day, are deferring investment despite generating substantial (Ruble) profits—the very investment which some believe the Russian economy needs to grow and which has been contracting for 20 months.
The Saudis have avoided both Riyal depreciation and volatility. The government has insisted it will keep the Riyal pegged at 3.75/US$ and financial markets thus far have taken comfort from Saudi reserves (estimated to exceed $660 billion). However, as deficits deplete reserves and events occur that threaten the peg and Saudi oil-related export revenues, this comfort quickly could dissipate. After the Chinese Central Bank unexpectedly devalued the Yuan by ~2 percent against the US$, bets that the Saudis would be forced to abandon the peg spiked.
Breaking the peg would devastate the Saudi economy. It would drive up the cost of imports—and Saudi Arabia depends substantially on imports for a wide variety and high percentage of necessary consumer, business, and government goods and services—from food to oil, petrochemical, and other industrial equipment and services to military equipment, supplies, and training. It would also harm the Saudis who recently have been increasing their exposure to “hard” currency denominated loans.
Sovereign Wealth and Foreign Currency Reserves
Both the Saudis and the Russians are drawing down reserves they accumulated during the $100-plus/barrel crude price era to finance their spending. Over the nine months to July 2015, Saudi reserves declined $76 billion, from $737 billion to $661 billion, implying an annual rate of $100 to $130 billion. Should large withdrawals continue, or the amounts increase, confidence in the Riyal will sink.
Besides the $100 billion the Central Bank spent defending the Ruble, the Russian government has used funds from its sovereign wealth funds (the National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund) to reduce to fund priority projects, particularly in the energy industry—Rosneft sought one of the largest amounts. In June, Stratfor put the draw on the sovereign wealth funds at $44 billion.
China: The Sword of Damocles
In an era of low crude prices, modest economic growth, and modest crude demand growth, both Saudi Arabia and Russia (and other crude exporters) look to China as a source of incremental revenue to make up for the massive absolute declines in revenue and are prepared to compete intensely for market share.
One can imagine, then, the panic in Riyadh and Moscow when they contemplated the implications of the Chinese Central Bank’s decision to devalue the Yuan by ~2 percent against the U.S. dollar and the possibility this was the first salvo in a series of devaluations.
- For the Saudis, devaluation, if continued, will force the government to decide between volume and revenue. Pegged to the US$, Saudi crude, priced in US$ will become more expensive for the Chinese. It will reduce demand for Saudi crude and/or make the crude of other exporters—e.g. the Russians—whose currencies float. Yet reducing the US$ price to support volumes to China will reduce crude export revenues, which, if sufficiently substantial, could undermine confidence in the Saudi economy and therefore the Riyal peg to the US$.
- For the Russians, the Chinese Central Bank announcement possibly produced excitement at the prospect of competitive advantage over the Saudis in pricing. Quickly, however, excitement may have turned into anxiety. Neither side has made public critical details—including the currency or currencies in which sales will be settled and priced—of three bilateral energy megadeals: Rosneft’s $270 billion 2013 agreement to supply 300,000 mbbl/day annually to China for 25 years; the $400 billion, 30 year agreement signed in 2014 to supply natural gas to China from Eastern Siberia; and the negotiations underway to supply natural gas from Western Siberia.
Are prices set in US$, Rubles, Yuan, a basket of currencies (US$, Euro, Swiss Franc)? Are the Chinese expected to pay in Yuan at the Yuan/Ruble exchange rate? In Rubles at the Ruble/Yuan exchange rate? In Yuan at the Yuan/US$ exchange rate? Each alternative has different implications for Rosneft’s and Gazprom’s gross and net revenues from the sale of crude (Rosneft) and natural gas (Gazprom).
And the Winner is…
Despite the intense pain they are suffering in the low price Crudedome, both the Russian and Saudi governments profess for public consumption that they are committed to their volume and market share policies.
This observer believes the two countries cannot long withstand the pain they have brought upon themselves—and this article only scratches the surface of the negative impact of low crude prices on their economies. They have, in effect, turned no pain no gain into intense pain no gain and set in motion the possibility neither will exit the low price Crudedome under its own power.
By Dalan McEndree for <a href="http://Oilprice.com" rel="nofollow">Oilprice.com</a>
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Pittsburgh Post-Gazette The top intelligence officer for U.S. Army Europe was in town last week to visit her husband's mother, but Russia was on her mind as it is a lot these days. Col. Laura Potter, deputy chief of staff for intelligence for the Army in Europe based in ... |
Cybersecurity Firm: Chinese Hacking on US Companies Persists by webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
Chinese hacking attempts on American corporate intellectual property have occurred with regularity over the past three weeks, suggesting that China almost immediately began violating its newly minted cyberagreement with the United States, according to a newly published analysis by a cybersecurity company with close ties to the U.S. government. The Irvine, California-based company, CrowdStrike, says it documented seven Chinese cyberattacks against U.S. technology and pharmaceuticals companies “where the primary benefit of the intrusions seems clearly aligned to facilitate theft of intellectual property and trade secrets, rather than to conduct traditional national security-related intelligence collection.” “We've seen no change in behavior,” said Dmitri Alperovich, a founder of CrowdStrike who wrote one of the first public accounts of commercial cyberespionage linked to China in 2011. One attack came on Sept. 26, CrowdStrike says, the day after President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced their deal in the White House Rose Garden. CrowdStrike, which employs former FBI and National Security Agency cyberexperts, did not name the corporate victims, citing client confidentiality. And the company says it detected and thwarted the attacks before any corporate secrets were stolen. A senior Obama administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to discuss the matter publicly, said officials are aware of the report but would not comment on its conclusions. The official did not dispute them, however. The U.S. will continue to directly raise concerns regarding cybersecurity with the Chinese, monitor the country's cyberactivities closely and press China to abide by all of its commitments, the official added. The U.S.-China agreement forged last month does not prohibit cyberspying for national security purposes, but it bans economic espionage designed to steal trade secrets for the benefit of competitors. That is something the U.S. says it doesn't do, but Western intelligence agencies have documented such attacks by China on a massive scale for years. China denies engaging in such behavior, but threats of U.S. sanctions led Chinese officials to conduct a flurry of last-minute negotiations which led to the deal. CrowdStrike on Monday released a timeline of recent intrusions linked to China that it says it documented against “commercial entities that fit squarely within the hacking prohibitions covered under the cyberagreement.” The intrusion attempts are continuing, the company says, “with many of the China-affiliated actors persistently attempting to regain access to victim networks even in the face of repeated failures.” CrowdStrike did not explain in detail how it attributes the intrusions to China, an omission that is likely to draw criticism, given the ability of hackers to disguise their origins. But the company has a long track record of gathering intelligence on Chinese hacking groups, and U.S. intelligence officials have often pointed to the company's work. “We assess with a high degree of confidence that these intrusions were undertaken by a variety of different Chinese actors, including Deep Panda, which CrowdStrike has tracked for many years breaking into national security targets of strategic importance to China,” Alperovich wrote in a blog posting that laid out his findings. The hacking group known as Deep Panda, which has been linked to the Chinese military, is believed by many researchers to have carried out the attack on insurer Anthem Health earlier this year. CrowdStrike and other companies have tracked Deep Panda back to China based on the malware and techniques it uses, its working hours and other intelligence. In 2013, another cybersecurity company, Mandiant, published a report exposing what it said was a hacking unit linked to China's People's Liberation Army, including identifying the building housing the unit in Beijing. Those findings were later validated by American intelligence officials.
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Soviet nostalgia rules as images of the former dictator go on display in the centre of Donetsk, the rebel capital of eastern Ukraine once called Stalino
Three portraits of the former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin are on display in the centre of Donetsk, the rebel capital of eastern Ukraine, as the separatist authorities fuel a mood of Soviet nostalgia.
The Stalin portraits have been placed in the main square and feature a quote from the wartime leader: “Our cause is just. The enemy will be routed. We will claim victory.”
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NATO is to begin a three-weeks of military exercises in Spain, Italy, and Portugal that are described as its largest maneuvers since 2002.
The governor of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan Province, which borders Afghanistan and Pakistan, has warned that the country needs to be prepared for a new wave of would-be Afghan migrants.
Joint Commission to Meet as Iran Nuclear Deal Moves Forwardby webdesk@voanews.com (VOA News)
The international agreement on Iran's nuclear program moves forward Monday with the first meeting of the Joint Commission responsible for monitoring how both sides implement their parts of the deal. Monday's session brings high ranking officials from Iran and the group that includes the United States, Britain, China, France, Russia, Germany and the European Union back to Vienna, the city where they agreed in July to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for needed sanctions relief. It follows Sunday's so-called Adoption Day when the sides took their first formal steps to implement the deal. The commission is due to meet four times a year and discuss issues such as the design for converting the heavy water research reactor in Arak, projects at the Fordow facility and any issues that arise from implementing the lifting of sanctions. It is also the first stop for either side to report alleged violations of the agreement and try to resolve the issues. U.S. President Barack Obama said Sunday he had ordered his government to start preparing to lift sanctions against Iran, and that the Iranians had begun work toward their responsibilities to remove thousands of centrifuges, drastically reduce Iran's uranium stockpile and remove the core at the Arak reactor. "I welcome this important step forward, and we, together with our partners, must now focus on the critical work of fully implementing this comprehensive resolution that addresses our concerns over Iran's nuclear program," Obama said. The European Union also passed legislation Sunday allowing its members to start looking at ending sanctions. But German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier predicted the sanctions will remain until Iran proves it is living up to its side of the bargain. "That definitely won't be the case before the end of January," he said. "Now the question is whether Iran shows that it can fulfill its commitments." In recent days, Iranian officials have suggested the country could meet its requirements by year’s end. Potential windfall for Iran Stratfor analyst Reva Bhalla said if Iran can meet the conditions that lead to sanctions relief, it could economically rehabilitate itself. “In the immediate sense, it means between 40 and 50 million barrels of oil that Iran has in storage will be released on the market,” she said. But Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, said as Iranian officials work to get their nuclear sites into compliance, they will need to sell the deal to the country’s hardliners. “They have to sell their constituency that the Islamic Republic has not changed its stripes, ideologically, despite the deal,” he said. He also said there is concern about whether Iran will remain in compliance once it begins reaping the benefits of sanctions relief.
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Separatists exploit Soviet nostalgia in coal-mining city formerly known as Stalino in bid to cement their Moscow-backed rule - while glossing over Stalin's atrocities
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 РБК |
США предложили провести переговоры по Сирии с участием России
РБК Госсекретарь США Джон Керри заявил, что в ближайшее время надеется обсудить сирийскую проблему с властями России, Саудовской Аравии, Турции и Иордании. В Москве изучают предложение Вашингтона. Фото: Валерий Шарифулин/ТАСС. В этом сюжете. Олланд рассказал о ... Госсекретарь США Джон Керри в ближайшие дни проведет встречи по СирииРИА Новости Россия прорабатывает предложение Джона Керри провести встречу по СирииКоммерсантъ Власти США готовы к переговорам по СирииИА REGNUM Газета.Ru -Взгляд -BFM.Ru Все похожие статьи: 102 » |
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 Daily Mail |
Russia has made capturing ISIS executioner Jihadi John a priority
Daily Mail Russia has made capturing Jihadi John a priority because the high profile ISIS executioner would be a huge propaganda coup, a US security source has claimed. But Russian president Vladimir Putin is said to be preparing to send special forces to Syria ... and more » |
The strategy will include measures to withdraw the passports of teenagers believed to be at risk of joining jihadist groups abroad.
Afghan Defense Minister: Taliban Hid in Bombed Hospitalby webdesk@voanews.com (Associated Press)
Afghanistan's acting defense minister says the hospital that was bombed by U.S. forces was being used by insurgents who were fighting government forces. Masoom Stanekzai said on Monday that Taliban insurgents and possibly Pakistani operatives had used the Doctors Without Borders facility in the city of Kunduz as a “safe place.” The hospital was bombed by a U.S. AC-130 gunship in the early hours of Oct. 3, killing at least 22 people and injuring many more. The main building was destroyed and the hospital has closed. The medical charity has repeatedly denied the presence of Taliban fighters at the time. Stanekzai said a Taliban flag had been hoisted on the walls around the hospital compound. He added that Afghanistan will not support an independent investigation, as the charity has demanded.
Russia and Iran to Conduct Joint Naval Exercises on the Caspian Sea by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, October 19 – Having already shown its contempt for the other Caspian littoral states by launching cruise missiles from its squadron on that sea, Moscow will be conducting joint naval exercises with Iran, again apparently without consulting Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan, according to Iran’s Fars news agency (interfax.ru/world/474142).
Ahmad Reza Baqeri, an Iranian naval captain, said that as of yesterday, three Iranian ships were on their way to the Russian port of Astrakhan. The ships include the destroyer Damavand and two rocket carriers Joshan and Peikan. Interfax did not provide any additional details on the exercises.
In Soviet times, the USSR and Iran divided control over the Caspian; but since then, there have been unsuccessful negotiations to delimit the sea among the five littoral states and to agree to how they could use either the sea itself or its seabed. In the last two weeks, Moscow has shown that it will act unilaterally.
That almost certainly has infuriated the littoral states. (See the analysis by Arkady Dubnov as discussed at windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/10/not-one-cis-leader-spoke-out-in-favor.html.) But it has far broader implications for both the states in the region and the international system.
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan would like to build undersea pipelines, something the US and the EU support; and Kazakhstan has already begun to carry out plans to increase its merchant and naval presence in the Caspian. By its latest actions, Moscow has shown that is quite capable of blocking either.
С авиабазы «Хмеймим» выполнено 33 боевых вылета по 49 объектам террористов, расположенных в провинциях.
Like Stalin, Putin Using a Secret Infrastructure to Maintain Power, Pavlova Says by paul goble (noreply@blogger.com)
Paul Goble
Staunton, October 19 – As even some of Vladimir Putin’s defenders have had to acknowledge, the Kremlin leader’s real power is both illegal and unconstitutional because it rests not on formal institutions but rather on a secret informal network of special departments and special sections, much like the arrangements Stalin used in the 1930s, according to Irina Pavlova.
“One can only imagine how thoroughly Russian society is ‘penetrated’ by agents of the special services and force structures,” the Russian historian says, arguing that “it is no exaggeration to say that the entire population of the country is under their first” and that this ensures [Putin’s] power” (ivpavlova.blogspot.com/2015/10/blog-post.html).
The occasion for her comments are three articles by prominent commentator Gleb Pavlovsky, two last week and one from 2010 (gefter.ru/archive/16307, gefter.ru/archive/16312 andnewtimes.ru/articles/detail/17621) and one by another Moscow analyst, Sergey Tikhonov (expert.ru/expert/2015/40/hoteli-posadok/?285191).
In his three articles, most openly in the one published earlier but sufficiently clearly in his latest, Pavlovsky says that what he calls “the Russian system” is not something established by the constitution or law but rather is centered on Putin who is “an informal institution” the constitution doesn’t recognize and thus “the supreme authority of this system.”
Thus, she says, “Mr. Pavlovsky confirms that the real power in Russia is unconstitutional and consequently illegal,” and his references to “a keyboard” on which the Kremlin leader plays the bureaucracy “in essence confirms the existence in the power structure of a secret infrastructure, a network of staff and non-staff workers of the special services and force organs.”
Tikhonov provides “by the purest chance” evidence of the operations of this “conspiratorial power.” In an article in the journal “Expert,” he writes that “a secret structure with special authorities [has been established, about which] even the top brass of the Investigative Committee does not have access.”
The Russian analyst continues that people jokingly refer to this shadowy group as “SMERSH, by analogy to the famous Stalinist special service which struggled with enemies via harsh but effective surgical means.”
“Why such secrecy?” Tikhonov asks. “Why do even highly placed chiefs of the FSB not know about its existence? For the very same reasons that operational and investigative structures were created in the 1930s and 1940s” – to conduct purges in anticipation of war and then to carry them out during war itself.
At the start of this process, “there were little party tsars in the localities, former militants of the civil war whom it was necessary to put in their place and elites who had to be cleansed and very quickly.” The ordinary legal structures couldn’t be counted on to do so reliably from the Kremlin’s perspective because they were too closely tied to those who were to be purged.
Thus the need both for Stalin and for Putin to create “a special group” which had and has “direct access to the president and personally reports to the first person of the state about the situation in this or that region,” Terekhov says. And Pavlova adds that this is confirmed by the significant role of the All-Russian Popular Front locally.
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Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news.
IRAQ and SYRIA
A US drone strike killed Sanafi al-Nasr, the leader of the Khorasan Group, an al-Qaeda affiliate, in Syria on Sunday. Al-Nasr was the fifth Khorasan Group leader killed in the past four months. [New York Times’ Eric Schmitt and Scott Shane]
The battle for Aleppo has restarted, and there are many players.Islamists and anti-Assad rebels are fighting a Russian-backed conglomerate of Assad forces including the Syrian Army, an Iranian military brigade, Hezbollah fighters, and Shia militias from Iraq. [Guardian’s Martin Chulov] More than 70,000 people have fled the region in the last three days, according to activists on the ground. [BBC]
The United States is delivering more arms to Syrian rebels currently fighting in Aleppo, but rebel officials on the ground have said the arms are not enough relative to the size of the assault. [Reuters]
The complicated competition between regional and western powers in Syria is contributing to the rise of the Islamic State. A desire to defeat the extremist group often takes a backseat to other countries’ other interests, leaving room for the group to expand. [Wall Street Journal’s Yaroslav Trofimov and Philip Shishkin] Meanwhile, the New York Times presents a visual untangling of the ongoing conflicts in Syria.
Cuban special forces have joined the fight in Syria, supporting Russia’s intervention in the country. [Daily Beast’s James Bloodworth]
At least 40 people allegedly affiliated with the Islamic State were killed in an airstrike outside Raqqa, Syria. It is not clear who launched the strike, but source say the plans were not part of the US-led coalition and were likely either Russian or Syrian. [BBC]
Turkey shot down a Russian-made drone near the Syrian border on Friday. Russia has since said that the drone did not belong to it. [Reuters]
AFGHANISTAN
Leaving US troops in Afghanistan won’t significantly alter Afghanistan’s chances of fighting off the Taliban without a viable political strategy to back the military up, argues Jeff Eggers. [Politico Magazine]
Former Secretary of State and presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has expressed her support for President Obama’s decision to keep troops in Afghanistan until after he leaves the White House in 2017. [Associated Press’ Ken Thomas]
The Taliban threatened the lives of journalists at Afghanistan’s leading television channels and have harassed staffers over social media in the wake of reporting on the fighting in Kunduz over the last several weeks. [New York Times’ Rod Nordland]
A German aid worker who was kidnapped in August has been released by the Taliban, according to her employer. [BBC]
IRAN
President Obama officially ordered his administration to issue sanctions waivers for Iran on Sunday. The waivers will only take effect when the UN confirms that Iran has dramatically scaled its nuclear program back, which will be a “lengthy” process. [Agence France-Presse’s Dave Clark]
Some US officials have expressed concerns over the quick timeline Iran has set for compliance. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is aiming to comply by the end of February, when Iran will hold Parliamentary elections. [Politico’s Michael Crowley]
The US reaffirmed its commitment to cooperate with Israel to curtail Iranian actions in Syria during a visit between Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. [Associated Press’ Lolita C. Baldor]
BENGHAZI
Longtime Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin spent nearly eight hours answering questions from the House Select Committee on Benghazi behind closed doors on Friday. Only three lawmakers attended the questioning, which has added to controversy over the politicization of the investigations. [The Hill’s Julian Hattem]
Republicans and Democrats are feuding over whether the Committee’s investigation has become too political. [Politico’s Rachel Bade] The Huffington Post’s Jennifer Bendery highlights that Committee Chair Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) has a tendency to attend witness interviews only when the individuals are closely tied to Clinton. Meanwhile, Gowdy expressed frustration with fellow Republicans who are commenting on the Benghazi hearings without having been debriefed on previous hearings. [Daily Beast’s Tim Mak]
A federal judge in DC is considering whether to dismiss charges against a suspected Libyan militant after oral argument on Friday. Ahmed Abu Khattala is accused of participating in the attack on Benghazi in 2012. [Associated Press‘ Eric Tucker]
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
The 9/11 trial at Guantánamo may finally move forward after being stalled for 18 months after revelations that members of one defendant’s defense team had been questioned by the FBI for allegedly aiding and abetting the plot. Today’s hearing will be the first hearing in the case since February of this year, and the military judge must settle the question of how to handle the potential conflict of interest that has arisen between the detainee and his civilian lawyer. [Associated Press’ Ben Fox]
UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced new plans to address the radicalization of young British Muslims. The measures will include a process to withdraw passports of those who are at risk of becoming foreign fighters. [Guardian’s Alan Travis]
Chinese hackers have continued to attack US companies to steal trade secrets despite last month’s cyber agreement, which included promises not to engage in economic espionage. [Washington Post’s Ellen Nakashima]
EU privacy regulators gave the European Commission and the US three months to agree to a data transfer framework in the wake of the European Court of Justice’s decision earlier this month related to the “Safe Harbor” arrangement. [The Hill’s Katie Bo Williams]
Five people were killed and nine wounded in an Islamic State attack in eastern Saudi Arabia at a celebration of Ashura, a Shia holiday. [BBC]
Haroon Aswat was sentenced by a US court to 20 years in prison after pleading guilty to providing material support for terrorism. Aswat had attempted to set up a terrorist training camp in the Pacific Northwest under the orders of Abu Hamza in 2000. [BBC]
The US Transportation Department plans to require drone operators to register their devices with the government, citing growing fears that recreational drones may pose risks to manned aircraft. [Wall Street Journal’s Jack Nicas]
Colombia’s government and FARC rebels have reached an agreement to search for the more than 50,000 people who disappeared during the country’s long civil war. The two sides will form a joint specialized unit to recover remains from mass graves and locate those who are still alive. [BBC]
The US is now being challenged over both power and legitimacy by Russia and China in places like Syria and Southeast Asia. Both countries are mounting increasing tests to the US’ dominance and stewardship of the international order. [The Economist]
The Nigerian government is willing to negotiate with Boko Haram for the release of more than 200 schoolgirls who were kidnapped last year, if the group proves the girls are still alive. [Al-Jazeera America’s Philip J. Victor]
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Politics | Sun Oct 18, 2015 7:42pm EDT
WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON The Republican head of the congressional investigation into the Benghazi attack said on Sunday he is not targeting Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton and such talk hurts the inquiry.
Clinton was secretary of state in September 2012 when U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya, were attacked, killing four Americans including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens.
Democrats have said the Republican-controlled committee is more interested in damaging Clinton's reputation than uncovering the truth about that deadly night.
But the committee's chairman, U.S. Representative Trey Gowdy of South Carolina, said on Sunday he is focused on finding out what security failures led to the incident - not on Clinton.
"She is an important witness but she is one witness," Gowdy, chairman of the House Select Committee on Benghazi, said on CBS's "Face the Nation."
Clinton is due to testify before the committee on Thursday. The committee questioned her senior aide, Huma Abedin, for six hours in a closed session on Friday.
Democrats have argued that the 17-month-old probe is a political tool to damage Clinton as she seeks her party's nomination in the November 2016 presidential election.
Representative Kevin McCarthy, the No. 2 House Republican, stoked that view last month when he said the panel's work may be hurting Clinton's poll numbers.
Gowdy advised fellow Republicans who are not involved in the committee's work to stay quiet.
"I have told my own Republican colleagues and friends 'Shut up talking about things that you don't know anything about.' And unless you are on the committee, you have no idea what we have done, why we've done it," he said on CBS.
Clinton has said she considers the committee to be politically motivated.
"I think it's pretty clear that whatever they might have thought they were doing they ended up becoming a partisan arm of the Republican National Committee," Clinton said in a CNN interview broadcast on Friday.
Representative Elijah Cummings, the leading Democrat on the Benghazi committee, told "Face the Nation" that the 18-month-old had lost its focus: the events that led to the Benghazi deaths.
He said Gowdy has not interviewed the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or the secretary of defense, but has brought in many witnesses connected to Clinton through the State Department or her campaigns, including aides and speechwriters.
"We still have been zeroed in on Hillary Clinton. There is absolutely no doubt about that, and it's very unfortunate," he said.
(Reporting By Patrick Rucker; Editing by Doina Chiacu and Nick Zieminski)
Huma Abedin, aide to Hillary Clinton, delivers a statement after meeting with the House Select Committee on Benghazi at the U.S. Capitol in Washington October 16, 2015.
Reuters/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign town hall meeting in Keene, New Hampshire October 16, 2015.
Reuters/Brian Snyder
Huma Abedin, aide to Hillary Clinton, delivers a statement after meeting with the House Select Committee on Benghazi at the U.S. Capitol in Washington October 16, 2015.
Reuters/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign town hall meeting in Keene, New Hampshire October 16, 2015.
Reuters/Brian Snyder
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Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, after nearly a decade in power, heads into Monday’s federal election caught in a tight race for his political survival.
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