Who plays in the "Bunny Friend Playground"? The groundhogs.
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Who plays in the "Bunny Friend Playground"? The groundhogs.
To address the bottom line, and as always IMVHSPO (in my very humble and strictly personal opinion).
Russia and Russian military eventually will be (and have to be) admitted into the Western sphere of influences, powers and alliances, to which Russia belonged historically and culturally, if only, always and highly ambivalently, with "mysterious Russian soul's" artful rending of peasant garments and gnashing of sharp noble teeth, endless erasianistic conflicts, Orthodox Byzantine and unorthodox Marxist cries and prolonged and the most sincere moanings.
But we do not know when and how it will happen.
To proceed with this process now and under the current circumstances, under the aura of "emergency", with Putin's Russia, which is essentially a criminal enterprise masking as a state, (in the opinion of great many, if not all Russia watchers), is equivalent to surrendering to a blackmail on a global scale and selling out to the geopolitical extortion and protection racket, also on a global scale. This process, in its current design, will not stop; the KGB master plan (according to my obsessive conspiracy theory, which might not be that far from the truth and reality) is the complete subjugation of Western societies by subversive actions from within and systematic, well planned and thought through "special operations", also on a global scale. It is the same plan for the "world revolution", in a new form and with the more or less new devices but with the same criminal content and intent.
Mr. Putin possesses considerable, skillful and inventive, seductive political "charms". These are the "charms" of a political psychopath, much more so than any other politician's (many of them are, by definition and necessity). To apply intel lingo and role definitions, he is first of all and most of all, a political "Recruiter", experienced and talented one, although deeply cold, detached and highly calculating as a person, who, nevertheless, searches for the emotional contacts and satisfaction in his activities as a side benefit and emotional gratification.
He is also driven by deep hatred of the West and most of all, of the U.S., who, as he believes, rightly or wrongly, are out to dethrone him and harm him and Russia, with which he is linked in his mind by his narcissistic extension. His personal and political psychodynamics (also not unlike those of many other politicians and rooted in the "big hurts" of early life experiences) is to win the love of his symbolic parents - the Russian people and to protect them. In the process, he sees nothing wrong in helping himself and his cronies for his "valuable services".
When in trouble and is punished, as he is now, he creates a new mischief to resolve the situation and to come out as a forgiven and lovable victor, who should not be judged for his past transgressions.
Be it as it may, all these attempts at explanation and "psychologizing" are schematic, almost irrelevant and insufficient. His political moves are highly pragmatic, practical and, in all their simplicity of one direction, hit multiple birds and targets with multiple stones. Beside that, these policies are not his personally but a collective product, carefully worked out by consensus and expertise of many analytical groups, who share the same mentality, schooling, experiences and outlook.
There is no way and vector for Russia other than the Western and the European ones. China, with all her polite and foxy smiles, just waits patiently until minerals rich Eastern Siberia falls into her lap like an overripe fruit, by itself. It can afford to wait and considers those provinces rightfully hers, ethnically and historically. The creeping Chinese economic expansion and political influence in Russian Far East is unmistakably and well on its way. The old man cannot go East. The only way he can go is West and he tries to do this by tickling its hot underbelly - the Middle East.
The conclusions are self-evident:
Do not submit to a blackmail and do not sugarcoat it; expose and counteract it with firmness. Intensify intelligence and counterintelligence responses to Russian, their allies and proxies transgressions and aggressions, identify the opponents clearly. America is so saturated with spies, foreign agents, "special operatives" and "fifth columns" as probably never before in her history. These are not only and not just "troubled souls", they are, or are directed by the determined enemies with the assignments. They are not just "lonely wolfs", religious fanatics and Islamic militants. Religion and fanaticism are just convenient covers and "false flags" for carefully and methodically planned and executed hostile intelligence operations and acts of social, economic, informational, political and psychological wars. Sometimes, and probably not infrequently, mentally ill or unstable persons are used for these operations, the special psychological technics might be used. Sometimes the simple monetary rewards would do, the gangs and organised crime undoubtedly play very significant roles in these activities. "What and how" of this "bidniz": statistics, structure, moda operandi are not known to us, either because the firm knowledge is not accumulated and processed yet or because simply this information is not made public, or both. Increasingly, alarmingly, intolerably, America and the world become an easy target, a "Bunny Friend Playground", also on a global scale, for their enemies, the invisible "playful" groundhogs. Many of the accidents-messages (or accidents for the sake of messages) are "almost nothing", "small fries", which point to and can be used to identify potential loopholes, to put an utilitarian spin on it. The others, like the recent ones, are more serious, tragic and disturbing. But their purpose is the same: to send a message (for those who can read them), to intimidate, to terrorize, to blackmail. It is the same style, by the same authors and with the same signatures. And who knows what might happen next, from what corner and how, if, God forbids, the fan gets really obstructed.
These are very dangerous times, indeed. And they require adequate and very resolute response.
Mr. Obama, take the restrictive noose off the security services, let them take actions and do their job as they see fit, with the maximum of efficiency. "Similia Similibus Curentur": Cure same with the same, eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth - no one invented more efficient principles so far, they are tested and confirmed by time, life and practice.
This is a small scale war, for all the practical intents and purposes. To prevent it from growing and degenerating into a large scale war, let your intelligence and counterintelligence soldiers fight in honest as they want to (which will not necessarily involve "boots on the ground" and casualties, it might prevent them); do not hold them back. These are not the times for pseudo-liberal games, self-deception is dangerous more than ever, placating the "thugs and gangsters", the instigators, the "hidden and not so hidden hands" who want to create havoc and mayhem and rule in your home is not a security policy, it is a road to disaster.
Continue sanctions, as you rightly and skillfully do with the Europeans as a single team, and if the need be indefinitely, until the tangible results are achieved.
With the oil price below $45 (stabilization of the oil market and, apparently cleansing it from the commodities speculators and agents-saboteurs, might be one of the most significant but little noticed and under-appreciated achievements of Obama administration), and 30 years generational cycle (1920-s - 1950-s - 1980-s - 2010-s) the authentic "regime change" generated internally appears to be inevitable and a matter of the next few years (5 to 10).
It is worth waiting and assisting the process to deal with Russia that is renewed and healthy, genuinely pro-Western as she should be and genuinely friendly and a reliable ally, than to deal with the corrupt criminal mafia state on its deathbed.
One wise man said: when Russia is as small as Switzerland, it will be as sweet as Swiss chocolate. And I would add: or, with the big holes and as tasty as Swiss cheese.
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