Talks With Russians On Syria Serious, Constructive, Kerry Says | Russia in Review - Harvard


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Talks With Russians On Syria Serious, Constructive, Kerry Says

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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says talks between U.S. diplomats and their Russian counterparts for a cease-fire in Syria have been "serious and so far constructive."
Kerry spoke on February 19 during a short trip to London en route to Jordan, where he was due to discuss the conflict in Syria with King Abdullah.
"Everyone recognizes the complexity of this endeavor, and there is certainly a lot more work to do. These discussions have been serious and so far constructive, with a few tough issues still to resolve," Kerry said.
He added, "Working out modalities for a cessation of hostilities in a situation like Syria is a highly technical and detailed process; and that's why our teams are still at it."
Meanwhile, UN special envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura said peace talks wouldn't resume in Geneva on February 25 as he had previously hoped.
Speaking to a Swedish newspaper on February 19, de Mistura said that he could not "realistically" get the parties in the Syrian conflict back to the table by then.

Based on reporting by Reuters, AFP, and AP

Russia in Review - Harvard

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Media Feature
February 19, 2016
Belfer Center Programs or ProjectsUS-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 12-19, 2016
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.
Nuclear security:
  • A suspect linked to the Nov. 13 Paris attackers was found with surveillance footage of a high-ranking Belgian nuclear official, the Belgian authorities acknowledged on Thursday, raising fears that the Islamic State is trying to obtain radioactive material for a terrorist attack. (New York Times, 02.18.16).
  • Iraq is searching for "highly dangerous" radioactive material stolen last year, according to an environment ministry document and seven security, environmental and provincial officials who fear it could be used as a weapon if acquired by Islamic State. According to the IAEA, the missing Ir-192 was in a shielding container. The container is about the size of a laptop.  (Reuters, 02.17.16, CNN, 02.18.16).
  • NNSA is requesting an overall 2.9 percent increase in its budget in 2017. (Sputnik, 02.17.16).
Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:
  • Iran plans to buy the Sukhoi Su-30SM fighters, the Mil Mi-8 and the Mil Mi-17 helicopters, as well as other weapons from Russia in an arms deal worth more than $8 billion, the Kommersant newspaper reported. (Sputnik, 02.16.16.).
  • It is too early to talk about particular dates of S-300 delivery to Iran, as the deal has not been properly paid for, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Feb. 18. (Interfax, 02.18.16).
  • The United States says Russia's proposed sale of fighter jets to Iran would violate a UN arms embargo extended as part of the nuclear accord with Tehran. The State Department said transferring the Sukhoi-30 planes requires UN Security Council approval. (RFE/RL, 02.18.16).
Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:
  • In his remarks at the Security Conference in Munich Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev scoffed at what he said was a suggestion that Russia may use nuclear weapons in a first strike. “Sometimes I wonder if it’s 2016 or if we live in 1962,” he said, referring to the year of the Cuban missile crisis. (AP, 02.13.16).
  • “NATO’s policies related to Russia remain unfriendly and opaque — one could go so far as to say we have slid back to a new Cold War,” Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told the Security Conference told the Security Conference in Munich on Saturday. “On almost a daily basis, we’re called one of the most terrible threats either to NATO as a whole, or Europe, or to the United States.” “You asked me about the Cold War,” Medvedev then told Time in a separate interview, without being asked about it. “Maybe this construction is wafting around in the air somewhere,” he said. “I never said that a new Cold War has started.” Rather, the actions of the NATO military alliance are “pushing us toward the emergence of a new Cold War. I said that, and I’m ready to confirm that.” Medvedev cited NATO’s plans to deter Russian aggression by stationing more troops in Eastern Europe. “If this isn’t preparing for another Cold War, what is it for then? For a hot war? Such is the reality,” he said. (AP, 02.13.16, Time, 02.15.16).
  • Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev cited the Syria conflict as an arena of much-needed cooperation between Russia and the West, especially on military issues. “Military officials must be in constant contact," Mr. Medvedev said, returning to the point later in his remarks. “They should be calling each other 10 times a day." (Wall Street Journal, 02.14.16).
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told the Munich Security Conference that “Russia’s rhetoric, posture and exercises of its nuclear forces are aimed at intimidating its neighbors, undermining trust and stability in Europe.” “NATO does not seek confrontation and we do not want a new Cold War. But we had to respond to the Russian military buildup, which we have seen over several years,” he said. “Not only a military buildup, but the fact that Russia is willing to use military power to change borders in Europe as they have done in Ukraine,” he said. (AP, 02.13.16).
  • In a speech to the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia's threats and exercises of its nuclear forces were “aimed at intimidating its neighbors." In an interview afterward he said it was critical to avoid lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons. “No one should think it is possible to use nuclear weapons in a limited way as part of a conventional conflict," Mr. Stoltenberg said. Alexander Grushko, Russia's ambassador to NATO, denied that Moscow was blurring any line and said it has been transparent about its nuclear exercises. Mr. Grushko said Russian military doctrine states that nuclear weapons wouldn't be used except to defend Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.16).
  • Aleksandr Grushko, Russia's ambassador to NATO, told the annual Munich Security Conference   that "any attempts to create isolated islands of security are doomed" and that the current challenges faced by Europe, such as terrorism and migration, "demand" that NATO cooperate with Russia. “When will NATO stop fueling this perception that...Russia will attack the Baltic States, Poland.... You understand there are no real threats; this is not a real security agenda," he said. "Russia is not interested in any confrontation with NATO" but will "take all necessary steps to ensure our security." (RFE/RL, 02.13.16).
  • Peter Hultqvist, the defense minister of Sweden, which is outside NATO, asked at the Munich conference why Moscow continually talks about its nuclear weapons. “This is a concern for us," he said. As a result, Sweden was deepening ties with partners, he said, a reference to Sweden's increased military exercises with alliance members. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.16).
  • Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite told the conference that Moscow is already “demonstrating open military aggression in Ukraine, open military aggression in Syria.” “It’s nothing about cold,” she said, referring to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s Cold War comments. “It is already very hot.” (AP,02.13.16).
  • “We meet and we discuss, but so far we have not been able to agree on how to convene a new meeting of the NATO-Russia council,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Munich. The Russians, Western officials said,  seemed to have little immediate interest in a formal dialogue with NATO, using the Feb.12 meeting to tick off a list of historical wrongs done to Russia and its allies. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.16).
  • Petr Pavel, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, told the annual Munich Security Conference that he had heard calls for the "containment" of Russia but believes that approach would only increase the risk a military confrontation. " Pavel said containment suggests "sealing off the problem," which he said "should not be our aim" because it would leave NATO in the dark about Russia's intentions. Instead, he called for a combination of deterrence and engagement. "To understand their intentions, we need dialogue," Pavel said. (RFE/RL, 02.13.16).
  • British Defense Minister Michael Fallon told the annual Munich Security Conference that NATO "must become fitter -- able to react not just in weeks or days but in hours" as it faces "a new urgency" due to what he called Russia’s refusal to accept the territorial integrity of other nations. He also called for "hard-headed engagement with Russia," which means "being clear." (RFE/RL, 02.13.16)
  • Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski told the annual Munich Security Conference   that he believes NATO has no obligation to adhere to the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act because it faces "a completely different situation" and "a completely different Russia." .(RFE/RL, 02.13.16).
  • Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev grabbed global headlines this week with his interview in the German newspaper Handelsblatt in which he was quoted as warning that the Syria conflict could lead to a “new world war.” But the accuracy of the Handelsblatt translation was called into question. Medvedev, who spoke Russian during the interview, was quoted as saying that world powers must force all sides to sit down at the negotiating table and “not start yet another war on Earth.”. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16).
  • Endorsing remarks at the weekend from Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s prime minister, that the world had stumbled into a “new cold war”, the head of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe told the Financial Times that the situation was in many ways worse. “We are losing the tools and the kind of logic that we had during the cold war. Everything is more unstructured,” said Lamberto Zanier, secretary-general of the OSCE. (Financial Times, 02.16.16).
  • Moscow has described a logistics support agreement signed between NATO and Serbia as yet another attempt by NATO to broaden its sphere of influence, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Feb. 18. Serbia has no interest in joining NATO or endorsing European Union sanctions against Russia, despite the government's ambitions of joining the EU, Serbia's ambassador to Moscow said on February 12 (Interfax, 02.18.16, RFE/RL, 02.13.16).
Missile defense:
  • No significant developments.
Nuclear arms control:
  • No significant developments.
Counter-terrorism:
  • The Federal Security Service does not see a Turkish trace in the Russian A321 plane's bombing in Sinai. "We do not see a Turkish trace, and the investigation is in progress," Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov said on Feb. 16. (RBTH,  02.16.16).
  • At least two police officers have died and 12 people, six of them police officers, been injured after a vehicle packed with explosives blew up while approaching a police patrol post near Dzhemikent, some 20 kilometers north of the coastal town of Derbent in southern Dagestan. The Islamic State (IS) militant group has claimed responsibility for the February 15 attack. (RFE/RL, 02.15.16).
  • The Russian state security service says it has charged seven alleged members of the Islamic State extremist group. The Federal Security Service’s (FSB) branch in the Sverdlovsk region in the Urals said on February 17 that the suspects have been officially charged with terrorism. (RFE/RL, 02.17.16).
  • The Russian state security service says it has dismantled an "international criminal group" suspected of forging documents for people wanting to fight with the Islamic State group in Syria and militants coming to Russia. FSB  announced on February 18 that 14 suspected members of the group had been detained in a "multi-stage operation" in the Moscow region. (RFE/RL, 02.18.16).
  • Thirteen residents of the Tajik city of Norak have been jailed for raising the Islamic State (IS) group's flag in a public place. (RFE/RL, 02.18.16).
Cyber security:
  • No significant developments.
Energy exports from CIS:
  • Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to freeze oil output at near-record levels, the first coordinated move by the world’s two largest producers to counter a slump that has pummeled economies, markets and companies. While the deal, which includes Qatar and Venezuela, is preliminary and doesn’t include Iran, it’s the first significant cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 15 years and Saudi Arabia said it’s open to further action. (Bloomberg, 02.16.16).
  • European Union authorities on Tuesday stepped up efforts to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas. The centerpiece of the proposals, presented by the European Commission, is a plan to vet energy contracts with countries outside the union like Russia so that member states can compare conditions and look elsewhere for better deals. The latest proposals must still be approved by the various countries and the European Parliament before becoming law. (New York Times, 02.17.16).
Bilateral economic ties:
  • Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman's LetterOne said Friday it has invested $200 million in ride-hailing company Uber Technologies Inc. (Wall Street Journal, 02.12.16).
Other bilateral issues:
  • U.S. presidential candidate Bernie Sanders said: “We have got to do our best in developing positive relations with Russia. But let's be clear: Russia's aggressive actions in the Crimea and in Ukraine have brought about a situation where President Obama and NATO -- correctly, I believe -- are saying, you know what, we're going to have to beef up our troop level in that part of the world to tell (Vladimir) Putin that his aggressiveness is not going to go unmatched, that he is not going to get away with aggressive action. I happen to believe that Putin is doing what he is doing because his economy is increasingly in shambles and he's trying to rally his people in support of him” (The New York Times, 02.12.16).
  • Russia's top investigator Alexander Bastrykin has accused the United States of heralding in a new phase of “open confrontation” with Russia that has seen it undermine justice to damage Russian interests. Bastrykin said  the United States and its allies had waged a “hybrid war” against Russia for two decades. (Moscow Times, 02.16.16).
  • Sharon Tennison, an American activist whose bridge-building efforts date back to the Cold War, and her colleague were detained this week in the southern city of Volgograd for violating the terms of their tourist visas and fined 2,000 rubles ($26) apiece . (RFE/RL, 02.18.16).
  • VimpelCom, the Dutch-headquartered telecom that operates one of Russia's largest mobile communications providers, said it was in negotiations with U.S. authorities to settle corruption allegations related to its investments in Uzbekistan. (RFE/RL, 02.17.16).
II. Russia news.
Domestic politics, economy and energy:
  • Russians' real incomes saw a sharp fall in January, falling by 6.3 percent year-on-year, the Rosstat state statistics service said in a report Thursday. In December, real incomes shrank by only 0.8 percent compared to the same month in 2014, Rosstat said. (Moscow Times, 02.18.16).
  • Russia’s government, which has spent a month discussing a plan to revive its recession-hit economy, has yet to find sources of financing for more than a fifth of its 880 billion-ruble ($12 billion) package to combat the crisis. (Bloomberg, 02.18.16).
  • “It is not a secret that the Olympic Games in Sochi didn't cost as much as the officials said — 230 billion rubles ($2.9 billion). It cost 1.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion),” head of bank VTB 24, Mikhail Zadornov said. (Moscow Times, 02.19.16).
  • Nikita Kamayev, former director of the disgraced Russian antidoping agency has died unexpectedly,  becoming the second former top official of the agency to die this month. (New York Times, 02.16.16).
Defense and Aerospace:
  • The Strategic Rocket Forces have no plans to reduce the number of missile armies or divisions, according to the commander of the service, Sergey Karakayev. Today, RVSN includes three missile armies with 12 divisions. (<a href="http://Russianforces.org" rel="nofollow">Russianforces.org</a>, 02.18.16).
  • Russia has the world’s second most powerful military, according to the annual ranking made by Global Firepower. The United States headed the list, while China was ranked third in the rating, which does not include nuclear weapons, only conventional ones. (RBTH, 02.17.16).
Security, law-enforcement and justice:
  • The owner of Moscow’s Domodedovo airport, the biggest in Russia, has been detained by law enforcement officers. Dmitry Kamenshchik is facing charges linked with security measures at the airport at the time of a terrorist attack in 2011, according to a spokesman for the Investigative Committee. (RFE/RL, 02.18.16).
  • Former Russian deputy prime minister Alfred Kokh has been arrested in absentia on smuggling charges. (Moscow Times, 02.16.16).
Foreign affairs and trade:
  • Syria:
    • Russia and the U.S. held “intensive” talks in Geneva on implementing a limited truce in Syria, with the Russian side insisting it won’t stop a bombing campaign. The former Cold War foes held consultations on a “joint approach” to the cease-fire ahead of a planned wider meeting of major powers that they will chair, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. That gathering may not take place as scheduled on Friday because of the ongoing U.S.-Russia talks, she said by phone in Moscow. An American diplomat didn’t contradict the Russian account of the discussions. (Bloomberg, 02.19.16).
    • Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Q. Brown, commander of U.S. Air Force Central Command, told reporters that the United States has outlined to the Russians where the U.S. forces are operating in "not specific areas, but firmly broad areas" to ensure the troops' safety. Giving the Special Operations forces' location to the Russians was the only instance in which the United States has gone outside the  framework of the memorandum that U.S. and Russia signed in October to outline  "specific safety protocols for air crews to follow" in Syria. (Washington Post, 02.19.16).
    • “Russia is a major military,” U.S. President Barack Obama said, referencing the deadly airstrikes that have recently hit hospitals and a school in northern Syria. “Obviously a bunch of rebels are not going to be able to compete with the hardware of the second-most powerful military in the world.” Obama has earlier urged Russia to stop bombing “moderate” rebels in Syria during a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Obama also said a negotiated truce that is supposed to begin this week will be a "test" of Moscow's intentions. (RFE/RL, 02.15.16, USA Today, RFE, 02.16.16).
    • Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin called on President Bashar al-Assad to abandon any idea of a comprehensive military victory in Syria. “If they believe that no cease-fire is necessary and they have to fight to the end, this conflict will go for a very, very long time.” he said. “Whatever the capabilities of the Syrian army, it’s thanks to the effective Russian air campaign that they managed to drive off their opponents from Damascus.” (Bloomberg, 02.19.16).
    • "Everyone, including Russia, is interested in preservation of the territorial and political integrity of all countries in the region, among them Syria, and everyone, including President Putin, thinks that there is no alternative to political settlement of that problem," Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said.(Interfax, 02.19.16).
    • The foreign ministers of Germany, Russia and the UK attending a security conference in Munich last week gave conflicting views on how likely the negotiated ceasefire in Syria would hold. Germany’s Frank-Walter Steinmeier simply said, “51 percent.” Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart, was reluctant to voice any percentage, but then said “Forty-nine.” (RT, 02.13.16).
    • Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, has said it is no longer possible to impose a no-fly zone in Syria, the initiative has come too late. (Interfax, 02.19.16).
    • Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says that any ground operation by foreign troops in Syria will lead to "a full-fledged, long war." “Let’s remember what happened in Afghanistan,” he said. He also told Time that Russia has no plans to stop its bombing campaign against rebel positions in Syria until Moscow’s allies in Damascus can achieve peace on favorable terms. (Time, 02.15.16, RFE/RL, 02.14.16).
    • The US is seeking to rein in its allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia from military action in Syria if a ceasefire planned for Friday in the bloody civil war fails. The Obama administration and other western powers are worried that direct military interventions could lead to an escalation of the conflict and a dangerous clash with Russia. (Financial Times, 02.18.16).
    • Russia has promised to protect Kurdish fighters in Syria in case of a ground offensive by Turkey, a move that would lead to a “big war,”  head of the Syrian Kurds' newly-opened representative office said in Kurdish via a Russian interpreter.  (Bloomberg, 02.18.16).
    • Russian Sukhoi Su-35S Flanker-E air superiority fighters have been confronting the German Luftwaffe’s Tornado reconnaissance aircraft over Syria—potentially heightening tensions and increasing the chances of a miscalculation. (National Interest, 02.17.16).
    • In recent weeks, Western officials have begun to concede that Russia holds the cards in Syria, and that the success or failure of any peace deal will depend on Russia’s willingness to stop bombing rebel positions. “Frankly, it depends on what Russia wants,” British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond said at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. (Time, 02.15.16).
    • The UN Security Council is "concerned" about Turkey's shelling of Kurds in Syria, UN diplomats said after a meeting requested by Russia on February 16. (RFE/RL, 02.17.16).
    • Russian and Syrian airstrikes have “severely disrupted” humanitarian operations around Aleppo during the past two months and hindered delivery of life-saving assistance to hundreds of thousands of Syrians, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon wrote in an unpublished letter to the U.N. Security Council. (Foreign Policy, 02.18.16).
    • NATO powers and the UN chief have condemned air strikes on Syrian hospitals and schools that killed dozens of civilians on February 15, with Turkey and France saying they amounted to "war crimes" and Ankara blaming Russia for the bombings. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February 16 that Russian forces had nothing to do with the attacks (RFE/RL, 02.16.16).
    • Russia on Tuesday denied reports that its warplanes carried out a deadly strike on a hospital in northern Syria the previous day. (Washington Post, 02.17.16).
    • World powers are planning to deliver aid to the besieged Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor using air drops by a Russian airliner, United Nations officials said. (RFE/RL, 02.19.16).
    • U.S. Senator John McCain said: "Mr. Putin is not interested in being our partner. He wants to shore up the Assad regime; he wants to establish Russia as a major power in the Middle East; he wants to use Syria as a live-fire exercise for Russia's modernizing military; he wants to turn Latakia Province into a military outpost from which to harden and enforce a Russian sphere of influence -- a new Kaliningrad or Crimea; and he wants to exacerbate the refugee crisis and use it as a weapon to divide the transatlantic alliance and undermine the European project," he said. (RFE/RL, 02.14.16).
    • Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said Russia hasn't asked him to step down as part of a negotiated settlement of the civil war in his country. (RFE/RL, 02.13.16).
  • Other countries:
    • “It is nonsensical to link the lifting of EU sanctions with bringing the Minsk process to its full resolution, to its logical end, because, I repeat, the ball is not in Russia's court,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said.  (Moscow Times, 02.18.16).
    • On a visit to Moscow, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has called for better relations between Russia and Europe. Orban told Vladimir Putin that the EU would not "automatically" extend sanctions against Russia when they come up for renewal at the end of July 2016.  (RFE/RL, 02.17.16).
    • The migration crisis, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at the security conference in Munich, was bringing “hundreds and thousands of extremists" to Europe, along with “people who just want to get welfare and do nothing." (Wall Street Journal, 02.14.16).
    • Turkey has warned Russia it will hold Moscow responsible for terror attacks on its own soil in the wake of a deadly car bombing in Ankara and mounting international tensions over the war in Syria. (Financial Times, 02.18.16).
    • Russian Deputy Prime Minister Russia Dmitry Rogozin in a visit to Baghdad offered to provide more military aid and step up commercial ties, potentially eroding U.S. influence in the war-torn country. Russia is not planning to launch an air campaign in Iraq, Rogozin said. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16, Moscow Times, 02.16.16).
    • China has purchased seven Kamov Ka-32A11VS multirole helicopters and two Mil Mi-171E transport helicopters. (RBTH,  02.16.16).
    • Pope Francis was holding a historic meeting with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, in Cuba on February 12, the first meeting between the heads of the two churches in nearly a millennium.. (RFE/RL, 02.12.16).
    • Sergey Ryabokon, a Russian official who oversaw Moscow’s policy towards foreign civil society organizations in the foreign ministry, is one of the three short-listed candidates who are being considered for the U.N. post. (Foreign Policy, 02.15.16).
Russia's neighbors:
  • Ukraine:
    • More than 500,000 children in eastern Ukraine have been ''deeply affected'' by the trauma of living through the violent conflict, Unicef  said. (New York Times, 02.19.16).
    • The head of the international group overseeing the cease-fire deal in eastern Ukraine said the situation in the region is at its worst point since last September's lull in fighting, and warned it may take months for Ukraine to hold local elections in the east. "Now it's really a low" point, secretary-general of OSCE Lamberto Zanier said on Sunday. "I would say it's the worst since Sept. 1, what we are seeing now." On Monday, three Ukrainian soldiers were killed and six were wounded, according to the Ukrainian government. (Wall Street Journal, 02.15.16,Washington Post, 02.17.16).
    • Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine say that local elections mandated by the Minsk process on ending the conflict in the region can only be held toward the end of this year. (RFE/RL, 02.14.16).
    • Ukraine's embattled prosecutor-general Viktor Shokin has officially submitted his resignation. (RFE/RL, 02.19.16).
    • U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has called Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and commended him for passing anticorruption legislation sought by IMF. (RFE/RL, 02.19.16).
    • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry accused Russia of "repeated aggression" and said sanctions will stay in place until the Minsk II agreement to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine is fully implemented.(RFE/RL, 02.13.16).
    • Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's top commander, said that Russia has increased the level of violence in eastern Ukraine, as fighting between the Ukrainian military and Russian backed separatists has increased along the front lines. (Wall Street Journal, 02.14.16).
    • In Munich senior European officials warned that time was running out for Russia and Ukraine to fully implement last year's cease-fire agreement. A senior European diplomat familiar with Saturday's talks said France and Germany told the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers that diplomatic efforts to resolve the accord had been stuck since November and that they wanted to see it fully implemented by the summer. (Wall Street Journal, 02.14.16).
    • In his speech at the Security Conference in Munich Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko blasted Russia’s actions in both Ukraine and Syria, saying they are “a demonstration that we live in a completely different universe” from Russia. (AP, 02.13.16).
    • The Ukrainian government barely survived a no-confidence vote in Parliament on Tuesday amid infighting and widespread disappointment over its failure to deliver on promises to root out corruption. The prime minister, Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, staved off the motion only after members of a party representing Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, the Opposition Bloc, supported him by abstaining in the vote. (New York Times, 12.07.16).
    • An ally in Ukraine's ruling coalition has quit, calling the alliance a "clans' coalition that brought the nation to the extreme point of destruction." The leader of the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party, Yulia Tymoshenko, made the announcement on February 17 and urged other lawmakers to also walk out of the coalition. Ukraine's Samopomich (Self Reliance) party has decided to quit the ruling coalition, one of its leaders, Oleh Berezyuk, said on Thursday.  (RFE/RL, 02.16.16, RFE/RL, 02.17.16).
    • Ukraine is set to prove in court that the $3 billion Russian loan Kiev failed to repay was a bribe. Earlier this week, the Russian Finance Ministry announced the filing of a lawsuit against Ukraine with the London High Court for defaulting on a $3-billion Eurobond debt (Moscow Times, 02.18.16).
    • Moscow has banned Ukrainian trucks from driving within Russia in retaliation of the blocking of Russian trucks in Ukraine, Russia's transport ministry said Sunday. (Wall Street Journal, 02.14.16).
    • The Roshen confectionary company increased its revenues by 9 times in 2014. (Vesti.ua, 02.13.16).
  • Other neighbors:
    • The European Union lifted the vast majority of its sanctions against Belarus on Monday, officials said, including an asset freeze and a travel ban on the country's longtime President Alexander Lukashenko, despite continued concerns over the country's human rights record. (Wall Street Journal, 02.15.16).
    • Armenia plans to abandon its "static defense" strategy and switch to a more active deterrence in its standoff with Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, an Armenian official said. Speaking at a seminar organized by the Organization for Security and Cooperation In Europe (OSCE) in Vienna on February 18, Armenian Deputy Defense Minister David Tonoian said that in order "to alleviate" the confrontation, Yerevan is "gradually" turning to the "deterrence system."  (RFE/RL, 02.19.16).
    • Moscow has granted Armenia a $200 million loan for the purchase of Russian arms, according to a Russian government Internet portal. The 10-year export loan would cover the purchase of Smerch rocket launchers, Igla-S air-defense systems, radar-jamming systems, sniper rifles, and armored vehicles, the February 19 announcement said. (RFE/RL, 02.19.16).
    • A court in the Kazakh capital, Astana, has sentenced five men to prison for membership in a banned Islamic group. The Sary Arqa district court sentenced on February 18 the leader of the Tablighi Jamaat Islamic group to two years in prison. (RFE/RL, 02.18.16).
Back issues of Russia in Review are available here. If you wish to either unsubscribe from or subscribe to Russia in Review, please e-mail Simon Saradzhyan atsimon_saradzhyan@hks.harvard.edu.
For more information about this publication please contact the The US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism at 617-496-0518.
For Academic Citation:
"Russia in Review.", February 19, 2016.
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Is Russia 'Weaponizing Refugees' To Advance Its Geopolitical Goals?
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
Is Russia trying to "weaponize" refugees from Syria by using them as a geopolitical tool to undermine Turkey, the European Union, and NATO? That's what some officials in Ankara and Washington claim. The charge is that the Kremlin, acting in support of ...

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Obama: Greater US Focus on Asia Pays Off, Will Continue

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President Barack Obama says a pivot of U.S. foreign, military, and economic policy toward Asia is paying off and will continue. But critics say the trade deal that is the most important economic component of this so-called rebalancing of Washington’s attention and resources is in serious trouble. ASEAN Speaking in California at a recent meeting of leaders from Southeast Asia, Obama said efforts to improve the rule of law will encourage more trade and investment between the United States and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The 10 nations of ASEAN represent a population of more than 600 million and an economy totaling around $2.4 trillion. Together, the ASEAN nations are already the top destination for U.S. investment in Asia – amounting to $226 billion last year. That’s more than the U.S. investment in China, Japan or South Korea. White House officials say Obama has been working to pivot or "rebalance” policy toward Asia since he took office, because of the region’s strategic and growing economic importance. Economic issues Michael Auslin of the American Enterprise Institute says the pivot was largely a response to worries that the balance of power in the region was shifting away from the United States and liberal democratic nations and toward China. Many concerns grew out of military issues, but the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is an example of the growing economic challenge as well. The AIIB has 57 member nations and started with $100 billion in capital, nearly a third of that coming from China. The U.S. is not a member of AIIB, and the new bank positions itself as an alternative to the World Bank, which is heavily influenced by the United States. The most important economic part of the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia is the trade deal called the Trans Pacific Partnership, which AEI Asia scholar Auslin says faces an uncertain future. TPP groups 12 Asia-Pacific nations, including the United States and some members of ASEAN. Auslin says freer trade between the United States, Japan and other TPP nations could help the economy. Treaty supporters also say it is also a chance for Washington and other TPP nations to craft the trade rules of the future. China is not part of a member of the TPP. Skeptical Congress While the TPP has been signed by its member states, a skeptical U.S. Congress must approve Washington's full participation. Obama usually gets congressional support from members of his Democratic Party, but many of them oppose the TPP because they contend it will cost U.S. workers their jobs. Republicans, who control both houses of Congress, usually support trade deals, but this "partnership" is different: many Republicans, including some who are running for president, oppose it. Auslin says the TPP faces an extremely difficult fight in Congress. And without the United States, he adds, TPP membership will have little value. Criticism 'overwrought?' One of the architects of the pivot to Asia, Kurt Campbell, has written that worries about the lack of progress in the rebalance to Asia are “overwrought,” but should be “taken very seriously.” Campbell was assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs until 2013, and previously held high ranking positions at the Pentagon and White House dealing with Asian issues. The TPP can have a "decisive" effect on members' growth, Campbell wrote in 2014, and he urged his former boss, President Obama, to push harder for the deal's approval. With anxieties on the rise in an “increasingly uncertain” region, Campbell says more U.S. engagement with key nations like China, India, and others in Southeast Asia could have a calming effect. Washington and Beijing should strive for “practical cooperation," he says, by building up their military relations and working together on issues such as development, energy security and disaster relief. Campbell now heads The Asia Group, a private firm that advises investors and others. He says the U.S. needs to consider opportunities in Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Myanmar. The focus on economic issues has been sharpened by recent trading chaos on stock and oil markets, concerns about slowing growth in China and a recent downgrade in predicted global economic growth from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

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Page 2

Банальный рэкет? 

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From: SvobodaRadio
Duration: 54:17

Уголовное преследование владельца аэропорта "Домодедово" - это забота о безопасности или попытка отъема собственности в пользу прокремлевских олигархов? В гостях обозреватель "Новой газеты" Юлия Латынина, специальный корреспондент Ленты.Ру Александр Бирман и руководитель аналитической службы агентства "Авиапорт" Олег Пантелеев.
Ведущая Елена Рыковцева.

Iranian Rockers Face Jail Time, Possible Execution for Blasphemy 

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Two members of an Iranian heavy metal band have been arrested on charges of blasphemy, an online music magazine reported this month. The band members of “Confess” were reportedly arrested by the Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution on November 10, 2015, and face a number of charges, including "writing anti-religious, atheistic, political and anarchistic lyrics." The musicians were reportedly held in solitary confinement until making bail on February 5. They face a minimum of six months to six years in prison and could be executed if found guilty of a blasphemy charge, reported the online magazine Loudwire.com. Fans have started a Twitter hashtag to support the band on social media.

Documentary Captures Searing Images of Ukraine’s 2014 Pro-democracy Uprising

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In the Oscar-nominated documentary Winter on Fire, filmmaker Evgeny Afineevsky chronicles the massive 2014 mobilization of one million Ukrainians against what they saw as a corrupt political regime and their bloody clashes with security forces. VOA’s Penelope Poulou has more.

Kurdish Militant Group TAK Claims Responsibility For Deadly Ankara Bombing

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A Kurdish militant group has claimed responsibility for this week's bombing in the Turkish capital, Ankara, that killed 28 people, according to a statement issued on its website.

Russia in Review

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February 19, 2016
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 12-19, 2016

Олланд предупредил о «риске войны» между Турцией и Россией - РБК

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РБК

Олланд предупредил о «риске войны» между Турцией и Россией
РБК
Франсуа Олланд считает, что существует «риск войны» между Турцией и Россией из-за турецкого участия в Сирии. Он предупреждает, что, «возможно, это будет не прямая, а косвенная война». Президент Франции Франсуа Олланд заявил, что существует риск войны между Россией и ...
Олланд надеется убедить РФ, что уход Асада отвечает ее интересамРИА Новости
Президент Франции предрек конец ЕвропыВести.Ru
Олланд: Шенгену действительно грозит распадВзгляд
Интерфакс -Газета.Ru -Московский комсомолец
Все похожие статьи: 97 »
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Путин примет гарантии Ходорковского? 

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From: SvobodaRadio
Duration: 54:01

Михаил Ходорковский высказался за неприкосновенность "бывшего президента или бывшего премьер-министра" при смене режима в России. Об этом экс-глава ЮКОСа сказал в четверг в ходе общения с журналистами и студентами в Лондоне.
Отвечая на вопрос интернет-газеты Znak.com, какая судьба может ждать Владимира Путина и его семью в случае прихода Ходорковского к власти, глава "Открытой России" сказал, что не видит противостояния между ним и Путиным в личной сфере. "Наши счета закрыты. Он – мой политический оппонент", – подчеркнул Ходорковский и добавил, что "правильно и достойно, когда бывший оппонент – бывший президент или бывший премьер-министр – будут пользоваться полной неприкосновенностью, как это и устроено в нормальных странах". "Они должны быть освобождены от ответственности за свои действия в ходе политической жизни, если это не были уголовные преступления, но это должен установить суд", – пояснил Ходорковский.
Экс-глава ЮКОСа выступает за диалог с "сомневающимся большинством", которые хоть и не являются сторонниками оппозиции, но готовы ее выслушать. По мнению Ходорковского, это 20-30 процентов российского общества.
Достаточно ли Владимиру Путину и Дмитрию Медведеву гарантий Михаила Ходорковского, какова позиция гражданского общества и оппозиции по этому вопросу – обсуждают политик Константин Боровой, адвокат Александр Осовцов, писатель Владимир Переверзин.
Ведущий –​ Владимир Кара - Мурза - старший.

Obama Discusses Syrian Security Issues With Turkey's Erdogan 

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President Barack Obama called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday to offer condolences for the terrorist bombing that killed 28 people in Ankara this week. The White House said the two leaders discussed the security situation in Syria and the need for cooperation between the U.S. and Turkey. A spokesman said more details on the call would be released later in the day. Earlier, Erdogan said he would raise the issue of what he called U.S.-supplied weapons being used against civilians by the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG, which has been blamed for the suicide bombing. The United States has said it does not consider the YPG a terrorist group and that it is a useful ally in the fight against Islamic State.   State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Friday that the U.S. had not supplied weapons of any kind to the YPG, adding, "We have also seen no evidence to substantiate the claim that the YPG is somehow smuggling U.S. weapons to the PKK." Ankara considers both the YPG and the PKK, a Kurdish rebel group, to be terrorist organizations.

Media Watchdog Calls On Turkey To Release Syrian Journalist

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The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has urged Turkey to immediately release a Syrian journalist who, according to the group, was detained earlier this week after trying to apply for a residency permit.

Russia presses UN Security Council on Syria's sovereignty - Reuters

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RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Russia presses UN Security Council on Syria's sovereignty
Reuters
Russia circulated a short draft resolution to the 15-member council over concerns about an escalation in hostilities on the Turkey/Syria border and possible plans for a Turkish ground operation. The document does not name Turkey. The Security Council...
Is Russia 'Weaponizing Refugees' To Advance Its Geopolitical Goals?RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
Vladimir Putin warned: Russia will be held responsible for ANY terror attack in TurkeyExpress.co.uk
Russia to initiate UN Security Council meeting over Turkey's plans to send troops to northern SyriaRT
FRANCE 24 -TASS -Times of India
all 12,578 news articles »

February 19, 2016

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A look at the best news photos from around the world.

Is Russia losing the battle against online piracy? - BBC News

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Is Russia losing the battle against online piracy?
BBC News
The Kremlin admits that Russia has a serious problem with online piracy. It says that it is taking steps to combat it. But the official anti-piracy policy is stalling. The government seems undecided on how to tackle the issue. Many Russians think ...

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The Maisky Diary: The Wartime Revelations of Stalin’s Man in London 

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The terror and purges of Stalin’s Russia in the 1930s discouraged Soviet officials from putting pen to paper, let alone keeping personal diaries.

Talks With Russians On Syria Serious, Constructive, Kerry Says

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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says talks between U.S. diplomats and their Russian counterparts for a cease-fire in Syria have been "serious and so far constructive."

Russia Says Syria Bombing to Continue as U.S. Truce Talks Held



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