Islamic State looking for spectacular attacks: UK police
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LONDON (Reuters) - Islamic State fighters want to carry out "enormous and spectacular" attacks against Britain and the Western lifestyle in general, Britain's most senior anti-terrorism officer said on Monday.
RIYADH/MANILA (Reuters) - Foreign governments are pressing authorities and executives in Saudi Arabia to ensure that local construction firms make delayed salary payments to thousands of workers, a sign of pressure on the kingdom's economy due to low oil prices.
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Thirteen Kurdish militants and two Turkish soldiers have been killed during two days of fighting in restive southeastern Turkey, officials said on Monday.
The international community must address the challenge of rehabilitating children indoctrinated by so-called Islamic State (IS), a new report says.
The Latest on Syria’s conflict (all times local):
No easy answers in Apple vs. FBI
Big Bear Grizzly At the same time, if there is information in that phone that might prevent another similar attack or a terrorist attack on a larger scale, or lead to the capture of other terrorists, then the tech giant has an obligation to aid the FBI in protecting ... and more » |
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Washington Post |
A US student's plight
Washington Post In the past half-dozen years alone, the regime has won visits from former presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton and National Intelligence Director James R. Clapper in exchange for the release of Americans charged with offenses such as leaving a ... and more » |
Washington Post |
Apple VP: The FBI wants to roll back safeguards that keep us a step ahead of criminals
Washington Post That's why it's so disappointing that the FBI, Justice Department and others in law enforcement are pressing us to turn back the clock to a less-secure time and less-secure technologies. They have suggested that the safeguards of iOS 7 were good enough ... Apple v FBI encryption tussle set for deadlockThe Straits Times The week in security: Apple-FBI encryption stoush dominates RSA; Aussie execs less hands-on than APAC peersCSO Australia all 21 news articles » |
As part of Apple's continuing quest to raise support for its side of the Apple/FBI iPhone encryption backdoor debate, Craig Federighi has written an opinion piece in The Washington Post. Unsurprisingly, the Apple executive ...
The Verge |
Apple VP says FBI encryption order 'puts everyone at risk'
The Verge As the legal battle between Apple and the FBI continues, Apple's vice president of software today presented the company's case to the public. Craig Federighi, Apple's vice president of software, is the latest to present the case for the company to the ... Apple VP says FBI's order makes everyone less secureEngadget Apple vs FBI: Lavabit warns FBI's “extraordinary” action may drive US businesses offshoreTechCrunch Craig Federighi: FBI Wants to 'Turn Back Clock to Less-Secure Time'Mac Rumors Washington Post-Fortune-The Hill all 138 news articles » |
"That's why it's so disappointing that the FBI, Justice Department and others in law enforcement are pressing us to turn back the clock to a less-secure time and less-secure technologies" - Craig Federighi Any weaknesses ...
ETTelecom.com |
Apple standoff reveals crack in policy front
ETTelecom.com On Tuesday, James B Comey Jr., director of the FBI, testified in Congress about the need for some kind of government action he avoided the word "legislation" because the White House has specifically said it is not seeking that now that would guarantee ... Apple should remove 'guard dog' on iPhone, FBI chief saysThe Boxing Historian US House Committee Hears Testimony on FBI - Apple FightThe Saint all 52 news articles » |
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A former Air Force mechanic’s trial in Brooklyn on terrorism charges has centered on a drafted letter in which he pledged to defend the Islamic State.
More than 100 people were injured when a driver detonated a fuel truck in the city of Hilla.
Frank Terpil, a former operative of the United States Central Intelligence Agency, who defected to Cuba in 1981 to avoid charges of criminal conspiracy, has died.
March 7, 2016, 8:34 AM (IDT)
On March 2, two Israeli soldiers on guard at a community outside Mt. Bracha near Nablus were stabbed by three terrorists. One is still in hospital. An official military inquiry found that the two injured soldiers failed to perform their duties, their firearms were not on hand and the facility they were using was not fit for use as an operational post. Their company commander was suspended for a year for negligence and two junior officers relieved of their duties.
The fight between Apple and the FBI over unlocking an iPhone continues. Now, Apple's VP for software engineering, Craig Federighi, has spoken out, warning that legal arguments overlook the fact that criminals—as well as ...
federighi Apple VP Craig Federighi has published an op-ed in The Washington Post in which he criticizes the idea of a government backdoor into the company's software and accuses the FBI of wanting to "turn back the clock ...
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Haaretz |
Rogue CIA Operative Who Worked for PLO Dies in Cuba
Haaretz Rogue CIA agent Frank Terpil died in exile near Havana, Cuba last week, the Guardian reported on Sunday. Terpil, who was born in 1939 and who used the pseudonym Robert Hunter, was sentenced to 53 years in prison in absentia by a U.S. court in 1981 ... |
KnowTechie (blog) |
The Most Important Thing We Learned From Hillary and the FBI
KnowTechie (blog) The issue of data security avalanched into the public domain with the case of Hillary Clinton, who used privates servers to send classified information via email during her time as State Secretary. There are some other cases like the legal battle of ... and more » |
March 7, 2016, 12:50 PM (IDT)
Moscow is planning to send its only heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser "Admiral Kuznetsov" to the Mediterranean sea in the summer to lead a permanent naval group, said a high-ranking source in the main command of the Russian Navy. It will be upgraded for new types of aircraft and munitions, including the new MiG-29K and "other planes.” DEBKAfile: The Kuznetzov can carry forty SU-33, Mig-29 and SU-25UT fighter jets and 24 helicopters
March 7, 2016, 11:37 AM (IDT)
US Vice President Joe Biden will start his five-day Middle East tour in Israel Tuesday, March 8, by presenting the multibillion financial and defense aid package promised by the Obama administration to redress the imbalance in Israeli security generated by the nuclear deal with Iran. debkafile’s sources report that Prime Minister’s Binyamin Netanyahu was quietly tipped by Biden’s close circle that he may decide to use the handover of this package as the opening shot of his run for the Democratic presidential nomination.
TechCrunch |
Apple vs FBI: Lavabit warns FBI's “extraordinary” action may drive US businesses offshore
TechCrunch Another amicus brief has been filed in support of Apple in its legal battle with the FBI over the measures it is being ordered, by a court writ, to take to help the agency break into a locked iPhone used by one of the San Bernardino terrorists. Apple ... Apple VP says FBI encryption order 'puts everyone at risk'The Verge Apple VP says FBI's order makes everyone less secureEngadget The Case Against a Backdoor for the FBIFortune Mac Rumors -Washington Post -BGR all 165 news articles » |
Poynter.org |
Round 1: The FBI vs. Apple. Round 2: The FBI vs. journalists?
Poynter.org Apple's ongoing fight with the FBI over privacy is a story worth considering through that frame. This case isn't just fodder for pageviews or ratings. It highlights problems in the news industry that demand a reckoning. Now. Before our own full-blown ... The most important thing we learned from Hillary Clinton and the FBIKnowTechie (blog) Apple Vs FBI: Who Else Are In Apple's Side?Bitbag all 7 news articles » |
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The Early Edition: March 7, 2016 by Nadia O'Mara
Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news.
IRAQ and SYRIA
An Islamic State suicide bomb attack has killed at least 60 people after it targeted an Iraqi checkpoint south of Baghdad yesterday, according to medical and security officials. [Reuters] The incident is the latest in a string of ISIS attacks targeting Shi’ite majority neigborhoods. [Wall Street Journal’s Tamer El-Ghobashy and Ghassan Adnan] The UN’s most senior official in Iraq has strongly condemned the attack. [UN News Centre]
A key member of the Syrian opposition High Negotiations Committee indicated a willingness to attend peace talks convened by the UN in Geneva, though another opposition official said a decision had yet to be made. [Reuters]
Russia will permit access to its military bases in Syria for humanitarian aid deliveries, a spokesman for the defense ministry announced today. [Reuters]
A government-controlled neighborhood of Aleppo came under heavy shelling yesterday, killing 13 civilians and wounding 40 others. The state-run news agency SANA blamed the attack on “terrorists,” while the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the shells were fired by insurgents, including the Nusra Front. [AP]
ISIS battled with Syrian insurgents over the weekend for control of a key border post with Iraq, the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights reporting that the Islamic State succeeded in recapturing the post from US-backed fighters. [Washington Post’s Philip Issa]
Political rivalries are undermining efforts to retake Mosul from the Islamic State, with differences between members of the anti-ISIS forces which include US, Iran-backed militias and Kurdish fighters. [Wall Street Journal’s Tamer El-Ghobashy]
US-led airstrikes continue. The US and coalition military forces conducted six strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria on March 6. Separately, partner forces conducted a further 13 strikes on targets in Iraq. [Central Command]
“How Islamic State is training child killers in a doctrine of hate.” Mark Townsend discusses the generation of children growing up under the ISIS “caliphate,” “indoctrinated with religious concepts from birth, and viewed by its fighters as better and purer than themselves.” Up to 50 UK children are growing up in ISIS-controlled territory. [The Guardian]
SURVEILLANCE, PRIVACY and TECHNOLOGY
Apple v. the FBI. The Obama administration remains conflicted over supporting requirements that tech companies provide law enforcement with a “back door” into their products, even as the Justice Department fights Apple in court, according to a number of people familiar with the situation. [Reuters]
Some criminals use iPhones as their “device of choice” due to the strong encryption provided for the product by Apple, three groups of law enforcement said in a court filing to the judge overseeing the dispute between Apple and the Department of Defense.
US law enforcement risks “unlocking a Pandora’s Box” in its fight with Apple, said the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, who called on American authorities to proceed with great caution. [UN News Centre]
Security is an endless race – one that you can lead but never decisively win.” Senior vice president of software engineering at Apple, Craig Federighi, explains the threat posed by the FBI’s attempts to pressure the tech giant “to turn back the clock to a less-secure time and less-secure technologies.” [Washington Post]
Apple users were hit by hackers over the weekend; Macintosh computers were for the first time attacked by ransomware, a “pernicious” software type considered as one of the fastest-growing types of cyber threat. [Reuters]
Amazon will restore encryption to its Fire tablets following complaints and criticism from its customers and privacy campaigners for quietly removing it from its latest software update. [Reuters]
NORTH KOREA
North Korea has threatened the US and South Korea with “indiscriminate” nuclear strikes, in response to annual military exercises Key Resolve and Foal Eagle. [BBC; New York Times’ Choe Sang-Hun] The threat, which is a typically angry response to these exercises by North Korea, has been described as “absolutely not credible.” Moreover, if acted on it would “trigger everything North Korea wants to avoid, which is their absolute destruction in retaliatory attacks.” [Washington Post’s Anna Fifield] Prior to the exercises, North Korea began pushing for more army recruitment, calling on retired soldiers to re-enlist and youths from secondary school onward to sign up. [Daily NK]
The Philippines is to be the first country to enforce new UN sanctions against North Korea, set to impound a suspected North Korean cargo ship that arrived in Subic Bay, northwest of Manila, last Thursday. The crew are likely to be deported and a team from the UN sent in to inspect the ship’s contents. [New York Times’ Floyd Whaley]
A North Korea Human Rights Act has been passed in South Korea, having been stalled for 11 years. The act funds North Korean defectors who send information to the South, and will establish a center to publish details of North Korea’s human rights abuses. [Wall Street Journal]
TURKEY
“Syria is in flames” but other countries “don’t even want the smoke.” There are rising levels of frustration among Turkey’s officials, as the country is being repeatedly called on to block militants migrating from Syria by nations which are reluctant or incapable of doing it themselves. [Washington Post’s Greg Miller and Souad Mekhennet]
“Neglecting our relationship with Turkey, creating a smokescreen around our original intentions, blowing hot and cold on Ankara’s European future” are all symptoms of Europe’s “duplicitous” attitude to Turkey. Rachida Dati argues that better cooperation with Turkey should be Europe’s starting point in tackling migration, the Syrian crisis and international instability. [The Guardian]
LIBYA
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon highlighted the “alarming information coming from Libya about grave acts that could amount to war crimes” while on a recent visit to Algeria. “All external actors need to use their influence to appease the situation” in Libya, he said. [UN News Centre]
“A tense and listless city caught in the maw of Libya’s strange war.” Declan Walsh reports from Tripoli, where a “delicate status quo” shows signs of disintegrating, “security is brittle” and “migrants lie in wait” for a chance to leave. [New York Times]
“This is how you beat ISIS.” Representative Adam Schiff advocates “the coordinated use of military power, strong diplomacy to end the political infighting, capacity building, and efforts to sow division between local ISIS affiliates and their terrorist sponsors” to stop Islamic State from gaining a stronghold in Libya. [The Daily Beast]
Libya would be “an argument worth having” between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, if they become the choices in the presidential election this fall. “Libya is not only a story of US failure but also a problem that the next president will have a chance to get right – whether he or she likes it or not,” writes Jackson Diehl. [Washington Post]
Clashes between Tunisian police and unidentified gunmen have resulted in the deaths of at least 26 people near Tunisia’s border with Libya. Gunmen targeted a police station and military facilities in the town of Ben Guerdan this morning. [AP]
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
NATO has announced that it will expand its efforts to control the flow of migrants across the Aegean Sea, by conducting patrols in the territorial waters of Greece and Turkey following “close consultation” with those countries. Over a million migrants arrived in Europe by this route last year. [New York Times’ James Kanter]
The Taliban has refused to engage in US-backed peace talks with Afghan officials while US troops are still fighting the group on the battlefield. [Washington Post’s Erin Cunningham] The two sides met last month to discuss the possibility of engaging in a peace process. [Wall Street Journal’s Jessica Donati]
Muslim Brotherhood has been held responsible for a bombing in Cairo last summer, which killed Egypt’s top prosecutor. The group is banned in Egypt, and is trained by Palestinian militant group Hamas. Hamas, which has been trying to “develop ties” with Cairo, has denied the accusation. Muslim Brotherhood denied responsibility at the time of the attack. [New York Times’ Nour Youssef;Wall Street Journal’s Dahlia Kholaif]
A suicide bombing outside a court in Charsadda district in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan, has killed at least nine people. The splinter group of the Taliban claiming responsibility said that the attack was “revenge” for the recent hanging of a former Pakistani commando. [Al Jazeera; Reuters’ Jibran Ahmad]
Dissident Republican group the “new IRA” has claimed responsibility for the bomb attack on a prison officer in Belfast, Northern Ireland last week. A spokesperson for the group said that the attack was in retaliation for the treatment of dissidents in prisons. Four people have been arrested. [BBC]
A plan aimed at “Saving Jewish Jerusalem,” involving fencing off most of East Jerusalem’s Palestinian neighborhoods, adopted in principle by the center-left Labor Party and expected to appeal to the Jewish constituency, has been rejected by those “at both ends of the political spectrum.” [New York Times’ Isabel Kerschner]
Foreign diplomats are “expressing alarm” over Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s “inflammatory and insulting” rhetoric. It is very unusual for foreign diplomats to do so in the midst of a presidential campaign, say US officials, particularly those from allied countries, who know they may have to work with the winning candidate in the future. [Reuters]
“The Envoy” reveals that meetings took place between the US and Iran before the Iraq invasion, in which Iran promised not to fire at US airplanes if they crossed into Iranian airspace. “We wanted a commitment that Iran would not fire on US aircraft,” writes Zalmay Kahlilzad, a former ambassador to Iraq, Afghanistan and the UN, in his book, which is due to be published this month. [New York Times’ Michael R Gordon]
“Preventative counterterrorism cases.” A new documentary, “Homegrown,” explores FBI arrests under its post-9/11 mandate to stop terrorist attacks before they happen, as opposed to investigating the crimes after they have taken place, the key question being “when is it acceptable to arrest someone for a crime they haven’t actually committed?” [The Intercept’s Murtaza Hussain]
Read on Just Security »
Read the whole story
· · · · · · · ·
Clash at Tunisian Military Barracks Near Libyan Border Kills at Least 27 by By FARAH SAMTI and DECLAN WALSH
The assault comes at a time of growing concern that the war in Libya, where the Islamic State has aggressively expanded, is spilling over.
TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) - The Latest on the clashes by Tunisia's border with Libya (all times local):
3:00 p.m.
Tunisia's government says 45 people have been killed after extremists attacked a town near the Libyan border.
The interior and defense ministries said in a statement that the Tunisian government has ...
MOSCOW (AP) - The Latest on Syria's conflict (all times local):
4.30 p.m.
The head of the main Syrian opposition coalition says they will decide later this week on whether to take part in indirect peace talks in Geneva scheduled to resume Wednesday.
Riad Hijab, head of the Higher Negotiations ...
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Nancy Reagan, who died Sunday at age 94, played an outsized role as first lady during her husband's years in the White House.
At first glance, the Mediterranean port of Latakia doesn't look like a city at war. But the signs become apparent on closer inspection.
Israel's prime minister says the upcoming visit of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden proves the strong ties between the close allies.
European Union leaders on Monday pressed Turkey to take back thousands of migrants and prevent others from setting off for Europe as thousands of desperate people sat stranded in Greece.
Scotland Yard's counter terror chief has warned that the Islamic State group harbors ambitions of "enormous and spectacular attacks," as jihadis broaden their plots to target Western lifestyles.
More than 10,000 migrants have been waiting in Idomeni, Greece, to cross the border into Macedonia.
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Russia's senior defense industry official has made an unexpected visit to Baku, as a Russian newspaper reports that Azerbaijan is refusing to pay for a shipment of Russian arms.
В Минобороны России прошел брифинг о ходе процесса перемирия сторон, возвращения мирного населения в свои дома и доставки гуманитарной помощи жителям Сирии
How a medieval Indian emperor explains today’s ruler of Russia
Vladimir Putin is apparently an enigma, who plays chess when others play checkers, who deals withforeign policy and domestic policy just as smoothly and aggressively as a Judoka’s natural mix of brute force and finesse. His inner circle is closed and cocooned, no one is privy to his thought process, and western analysts repeatedly fail to anticipate his next move.
On superficial observation, all of the above seems true. Putin is a man who has returned the topic of Russia to Western foreign policy analysis and debate which even three years ago was mostly about Islamic Terrorism and China. Some Realist International relations researchers (including yours truly) would tend to argue, that from a strictly foreign policy perspective, Russia is a textbook case of “security dilemma.” Russia is a newly revanchist regional power and is surrounded by smaller former Soviet states that are threatened by this process, thereby inviting other hegemons and powers to counter Russia. This in turn is threatening Russia, even further instigating it to lash out and militarize every potential conflict. In short, this is a chain reaction and overall, in the present international system, although chances of open conflict between an established bloc like NATO and a rising regional hegemon like Russia are still extremely low, there is a possibility that this adversarial relationship would continue in other asymmetric ways. Other analysts have also tried to explain contemporary Russia from the lens of a societal struggle. It is claimed that Russia is an authoritarian semi-dictatorial state where Vladimir Putin is increasingly isolated in his select coterie of like-minded yes-men, and is increasingly losing control of understanding the reality. Others would suggest Russia is a sophisticated kleptocracy.
On closer scrutiny, however, Putin is similar to an old 17th century Indian Mughal emperor. Putin’s ascension, actions, judgment, rhetoric, psychological profile, everything seems eerily familiar withAurangzeb, the last of the Greater Mughals. It is my hypothesis that an analysis of Putin’s future course and subsequent Russian destiny can also be fathomed, if we prudently study Aurangzeb further.
Western academia can be forgiven for not drawing this historical similarity. Medieval Indian kingdoms falls under hardcore area studies, and are not paid much attention among Western mainstream politics/international-relations scholarship. Indian history and politics starts from the British empire, with the advent of modern Indian state after the Bengal Renaissance, in the present territorial avatar as we know today. The only Indian ancient Political Realist who is mentioned occasionally isKautilya (Stephen Walt, Origin of Alliance). While we find comparativist studies of modern European states with Middle Kingdom of Qing dynasty or Meiji restoration in Japan, Medieval India is essentially a subject of history and theology and not Politics.
But Putin’s reign, has got more in common with Aurangzeb, than any other parallels, and if one needs to understand what we need to be prepared for, Post-Putin, we need to understand the sudden severe disintegration of the Mughal Empire and the British colonization of India within fifty years of the death of Aurangzeb.
The last great Mughals
So, who was this man? Aurangzeb was the son of Shah Jahan, the second last of the Great Mughals. Shah Jahan was perhaps another famous emperor, who is lesser known in the West than his creation, the Taj Mahal. In fact Taj Mahal was named after Aurangzeb’s mother, Mumtaz Mahal one of the beauties of her day. Born in 1608, Aurangzeb was the fourth son of Shah Jahan, and was not eligible for the Mughal throne. The Mughal empire during his time stretched from the Balkh province in the Afghan-Uzbek-Iranian border to present day Java. Aurangzeb, or Alamgir, was a pious reserved man, who was not an academic unlike his three other brothers, including Darah Shikoh, a scholar of Sufi Persian noted even in Iran.
Aurangzeb married a princess of Safavid dynasty from Iran, probably a ploy to seal off his western border from potential Iranian aggression. Legend has it, Aurangzeb once faced off a mad elephant alone, with a lance. Impressed by his bravery, Shah Jahan posted him as a head of a conquering force to quell rebellions in Southern India, where Aurangzeb brutally cracked down, which was a glimpse of his days to come. During the last days of a frail Shah Jahan, all four brothers marched to Delhi from different sides. In the resulting civil war, Aurangzeb defeated them all, and then assassinated two, while one fled to Arakan, present day Burma, and was later killed.
It was what comes after Aurangzeb was enthroned that is fascinating. He promptly established astringent version of Islamic law, something that was completely out of character of the Mughal dynasty which, although Islamic, was impressively secular. The Mughals even allowed inter-marriage, and had special rights for transsexuals (Hijras). All that was stopped by homegrown Conservatism, as Aurangzeb took upon himself the title of defender of the faithful. There has been scholarship which has speculated that Aurangzeb was a bit unhinged, not unlike how some Western leaders talk about Putin. However, it will still be fair to say, Aurangzeb looked at himself as some sort of legendary defining hero, a millennial man, who was born with a noble task to empower his dynasty and empire by its impressive might.
He was also an expansionist when it came to foreign policy, as well as a brutal administrator when it came to internal dissent. His expansion campaigns included reaching up to Ceylon’s shores. He twice pummeled the British East India Company, once in the West Arabian Sea and once in the South West. The English traders had to genuflect and beg for mercy, as well as pay a large indemnity. TheFrench traders begged Aurangzeb for protection. Even the Ottoman empire wanted Aurangzeb to come to their aid, when they were attacked by the Austrian Habsburgs. Even when his economy was crumbling, he was known and sought for as a strong military hegemon. On the domestic front, he brutally crushed one after the other rebellions in North India, before finally being bogged down by the rising Maratha guerrilla tactical warfare in the west, and the Sikhs in the north. His overconfidence stretched his imperial army thin, his rough treatment of his Hindu subjects resulted in the Indian Hindu Rajput lords refusing to fight for him, and they in fact sabotaged some of his campaigns, weakening his national unity which was at its peak just a hundred years prior to him, during the reign of Emperor Akbar. He assassinated most of his capable commanders in fear that they might rebel against him, and killed his opponents, which resulted in a top-heavy administration, devoid of any real military or academic talent, or any new outlook when it came to taxes, military strategy, or industry.
Aurangzeb died in 1707, a broken man, having failed to defeat the rising Hindu insurgency in southern India, which now threatened northern and eastern India as well. Though the empire was geographically at its largest, economically it was half of what it was during Shah Jahan. Within fifty years, the Persian Nadir Shah invaded India, and pillaged and plundered through Delhi, stealing the Peacock Throne, and the Kohinoor diamond, which is now placed in the English crown. After his death, there were seven different emperors over the span of forty years, Southern India broken off under the Marathas, the east of India and Calcutta under the Nawabs and other feudal lords, and the Hyderabad under the Nizams.
In 1757, English East India company took advantage of the chaos and defeated the Nawab Siraj Ud Daulah in Plassey, starting what would then go on to be the greatest, largest and mightiest modern empire ever in strict military and economic terms. By 1857, one hundred years from the battle of Plassey, 140 years from Aurangzeb’s death, the Mughal empire ceased to exist, as the British killed the last of the Mughals after a failed mutiny.
The parallels with Putin
So why this history lesson? Because the parallels we see are frighteningly similar. And the policy implications are equally necessary. Vladimir Putin came to power as a starry eyed man, and it is debatable how much he was actually friendly to the west, but it is generally accepted both by realistsand liberals that he was the first leader to bandwagon with the West in the war on terror. Now, Realists say this was just a tactical alignment to hijack the rhetoric of the War on Terror in order to crack down on internal dissent, while some Western liberals claim the motive was to gain global economic recognition by, for instance, becoming a member of the World Trade Organization and the G8.
Over time, Putin has started to surround himself in an ever-smaller echo chamber, as his opponents are assassinated, Russian scholars and bankers flee the country, and money is wasted on bunk pseudo-scientific research. He portrays himself as a vanguard of Christian civilizational conservatism and, it could be fair to argue, he even believes some of his own lies, which is what happens to old dictators. His crackdown on gay right movements and Russian liberals has created a climate of societal rage, where the Russian society is in a confused limbo. On one hand, they are proud, and dazed by this new found military adventurism, on the other hand, they are divided among sectarian and religious lines, extremely hurting under economic downturn, questioning and seething with rage regarding the military deployments, without proper authorization, with body bags now returning from faraway distant lands. Russia is a divided society, and the Russian administration is an extreme top-heavy organization, with no real civil society anymore, no independent scholarship, no clear succession process, an over stretched military and extreme economic austerity, not to mention troubles in the Caucasus and Chechnya.
What could be a policy prescription then?
Obviously unlike the British Raj in India, United States or NATO will not conquer and occupy Russia and anyone who believes that, whether a Westerner or a Russian conspiracy theorist, needs to get an urgent appointment for the nearest psychiatrist and stop watching Russian state media. However, there are still things that can and should be done.
If history has taught us one thing about leaders, it is that inevitably after one strong leader, especially one who believes in historical destiny that he is fulfilling, comes utter disintegration. Russia is also going on a course of self-destruction, and the Realist in me would instinctively suggest to pay attention to the words of Napoleon — if an enemy is hell bent on destroying itself, it is prudent not to stop the momentum.
However, this is a changed world, not the stable binary of the Cold War. Humanity cannot afford a country like Russia to eventually disintegrate, and the chances of someone more nationalistic, more revanchist than Putin should send a shiver down the spine of the most stoic of western IR theorists. Policy makers should therefore try to identify stable sources of power in a post Putin scenario: leadership that is modern and, if not an Atlanticist, at least comparatively liberal like Medvedev. Western leaders should also constantly keep engaging with Putin and not shut him off; further pressure might actually destabilize Russia and unleash forces beyond our control, including Russian nationalists, communists and Islamists. Western human intelligence (HUMINT) should be increasedto penetrate Russian society, feel the nerve, and increase our ground knowledge: something which is still possible with student exchanges and other means, unlike during the Cold War. Russian scholarship and expertise, which has receded since the collapse of the Soviet Union, should be studied again and funded. Finally, Western leadership should be ready materially and militarily to help the Russian people should something terrible happen, and should Russia look like it is about to collapse and disintegrate, post-Putin, into a humanitarian crisis.
Sumantra Maitra is a Doctoral researcher of Russian Foreign Policy, at the University of Nottingham, UK. He can be found on Twitter, @MrMaitra.
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· · · · · · ·
How Russia May End Up Controlling 73% of Global Oil Supplyby Rakesh Upadhyay / Oilprice.com
Russia has played a master stroke in the current oil crisis by taking the lead in forming a new cartel, but it’s a move that could spell geopolitical disaster.
The meeting between Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela on Feb. 16, 2016 was the first step. During the next meeting in mid-March, which is with a larger group of participants, if Russia manages to build a consensus—however small—it will further strengthen its leadership position.
Until the current oil crisis, Saudi Arabia called the crude oil price shots; however, its clout has been weakening in the aftermath of the massive price drop with the emergence of US shale. The smaller OPEC nations have been calling for a production cut to support prices, but the last OPEC meeting in December 2015 ended without any agreement.
Oilprice.com: Genel’s Stock Takes A Hit As It Slashes Reserves In Half
Now, with Russia stepping in to negotiate with OPEC nations, a new picture is emerging. With its military might, Russia can assume de facto leadership of the oil-producing nations in the name of stabilizing oil prices.
Saudi Arabia has been a long-time U.S. ally, but that, too, is changing. Charles W. Freeman Jr., a former U.S. ambassador to Riyadh, recently noted that “We’ve seen a long deterioration in the U.S.-Saudi relationship, and it started well before the Obama Administration.”
U.S.-Saudi relations further soured due to the Iran nuclear deal that ended in January with the U.S. lifting sanctions—a move the Saudis vehemently opposed. The Saudis had to look for a new ally to safeguard their interests in the Gulf, considering the threats they face from the Islamic State (ISIS) and Iran. Though both Russia and Saudi Arabia are on opposing ends in Syria, with Russia supporting Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and the Saudis supporting the Sunni rebels, the large drop in prices seems to have opened a window of opportunity for Russia to ally with Saudi Arabia.
This is not the first time that Russia and Saudi Arabia have sought a close partnership. Even in 2013,The Telegraph had reported an attempt to form a secret deal, which did not go through. Iran has been a trusted ally of Russia for a long time, and if Russia can broker a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it can also push through some sort of secret OPEC deal.
Oilprice.com: Saudis Turn To Capital Markets For $10 Billion Loan
The production freeze to January levels that was bandied about last month carries no significance in concrete terms because Russia, Saudi Arabia and most other nations on board are pumping close to their record highs. Barclays’ commodity research chief Kevin Norrish said it was “vital to note” that there was not much incremental production expected from Russia, Qatar or Venezuela this year anyway. It was the Saudi’s that really mattered, as reported by Forbes.
Though Iran hasn’t committed to a production freeze, since it wants to ramp up production to pre-sanction levels, Russian Energy Minister Aleksander Novak has noted that “Iran has a special situation as the country is at its lowest levels of production. So I think, it might be approached individually, with a separate solution.”
With all the major Gulf nations agreeing, Iraq, which is without a credible political leadership, will also likely follow suit if Russia assures them of stronger support against ISIS.
If the above scenario plays out, Russia will emerge as the de facto leader of the major oil producing nations of the world, accounting for almost 73 percent of the global oil supply.
Along with this, Russia has been in the forefront of plans to move away from Petrodollars, and Moscow has formed pacts with various nations to trade oil in local currencies. With this new cartel of ROPEC (Russia and OPEC nations), a move away from petrodollars will become a reality sooner rather than later.
Russia is smart. Vladimir Putin is genius. Moscow senses the opportunity that is almost tangibly floating about in the low crude price environment and appears to be ready to capitalize on it in a way that would reshape the geopolitical landscape exponentially.
Though a solution in Syria is welcome, a large cartel of major oil producing nations of the world with Russia as the head would be a major upset to the current balance of power. With this potential in mind, the mid-march meeting should be very interesting for the global oil patch—well beyond talk of production cuts and supply gluts.
This article originally appeared on Oilprice.com
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US Wants More African Students at Its Universitiesby webdesk@voanews.com (Thuso Khumalo)
The United States wants more sub-Saharan African students coming to study at its universities. U.S. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Industry & Analysis Marcus Jadotte is leading the first ever education trade mission to Africa this week. University overcrowding, teacher strikes and a lack of access to cutting edge research opportunities can make it hard for even the most motivated of students to get ahead in Africa. But going overseas can be even harder. Of the one million...
Report by the Quilliam Foundation details how children are groomed to be soldiers, executioners and suicide bombers
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James Dillon is thought to have carried out a six-hour crime spree in New York which ended in him being shot by NYPD officers.
The Australian Navy stops a fishing boat and discovers nearly 2,000 AK-47s, 100 grenade launchers and 49 machine guns on board.
TUNIS, Tunisia — Tunisia’s government says 45 people have been killed after extremists attacked a town near the Libyan border.
The interior and defense ministries said in a statement that the Tunisian government has closed its two border crossings with Libya because of the attack Monday.
The dead included 21 attackers, one Tunisian soldier and four civilians, the interior and defense ministries said in a joint statement. A 12-year-old girl was among the fatalities.
The gunmen targeted a police station and military facilities at dawn in the border town of Ben Guerdane in eastern Tunisia, Interior Ministry spokesman Yasser Mosbah told The Associated Press earlier.
France’s foreign ministry condemned the attacks and identified the gunmen as “terrorists coming from Libyan territory.”
“This attack is just reinforcing the urgent need for a political solution in Libya,” the ministry said in a statement, adding that the country was targeted because of its “exemplary democratic transition.”
Hospital official Abdelkrim Sakroud said on state radio that three corpses had been brought in, including that of the 12-year-old girl.
The Tunisian military sent reinforcements and helicopters to the area around Ben Guerdane and authorities were hunting several attackers still at large. The ministry urged residents to stay indoors.
The violence comes amid increasing international concern about Islamic State extremists in Libya. Tunisia’sfledgling democratic government is especially worried after dozens of tourists were killed in extremist attacks inTunisia last year.
Last week, Tunisian security forces killed five heavily-armed men in an hours-long firefight after they crossed into the country from Libya with a larger group. Tunisian security forces had been placed on alert based on “precise information” of possible border infiltrations following the Feb. 19 U.S. raid on an IS camp near the Libyan town of Sabratha, not far from the Tunisian border, the statement said.
Defense Minister Farhat Horchani said last week that German and American security experts were expected in Tunis on Monday to help Tunisia devise a new electronic video-surveillance system of its border with Libya.
Tunisia was targeted last year by three attacks that left 70 people dead and were claimed by IS. According to Tunisian authorities, the attackers had been trained in Libya.a
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Ukraine: Hard Choices in a Forgotten Warby webdesk@voanews.com (Luis Ramirez)
Two years into Ukraine’s war, many of the people caught in the midst of it see the conflict as frozen and forgotten by the rest of the world. With diplomatic efforts thus far failing, many see either an escalation or the relinquishing of territory as the only alternatives to ending the war.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have launched joint air force exercises, media in Azerbaijan have reported.
Two years into Ukraine’s war, many of the people caught in the midst of it see the conflict as frozen and forgotten by the rest of the world. With diplomatic efforts thus far failing, many see either an escalation or the relinquishing of territory as the only alternatives to ending the war.
Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/ukraine-hard-choices-in-a-forgotten-war/3222824.html
Originally published at - http://www.voanews.com/media/video/ukraine-hard-choices-in-a-forgotten-war/3222824.html
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GENEVA (Reuters) - Syrian government forces backed by Russian air strikes committed a "massacre" of scores of civilians around Aleppo on Monday, part of a pattern of breaches of a two-week truce, opposition coordinator Riad Hijab told reporters on a teleconference.
German government officials have expressed concern about the state of press freedom in Turkey.
Scotland Yard’s counter terror chief has warned that the Islamic State group harbors ambitions of “enormous and spectacular attacks,” as jihadis broaden their plots to target Western lifestyles.
South Korea’s intelligence agency accused North Korea of attempting to hack into Seoul government websites and smartphones at the start of major military drills involving U.S. troops in the South.
At least 12 people were killed in a suicide bombing in northwestern Pakistan, the first terrorist response to the execution of a man who assassinated a politician he accused of blasphemy.
Some of the most compelling photographs from RFE/RL's broadcast region and beyond.
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European leaders will meet with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as they seek to put pressure on Turkey to stem the continuing flow of displaced people into Northern Europe.
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