New Russian Attack on Ukraine Likely as a Frozen Conflict Threatens Putin’s Goals and Interests, Felgengauer Says - by Paul Goble
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Staunton, April 9 – Vladimir Putin’s goal in Ukraine remains regime change in Kyiv, something he had hoped his intervention in Crimea and Donbass would force the Ukrainians to do on their own. But that hasn’t happened, and now, the Kremlin leader is likely to launch a broader attack against Ukraine in the near future, according to Pavel Felgengauer.
Putin has an even more compelling reason to move forward, the Russian military analyst says. If he doesn’t, he could face “very serious problems” at home. And “as a result, this could lead to regime change” not in Kyiv but in Moscow itself.
Consequently, while a move toward “a stable frozen conflict” in the Donbass is “theoretically possible,” Felgengauer argues, it is “improbable” because for “political, strategic, tactical and economic reasons,” that would leave Ukraine in a state that is “absolutely unacceptable for Russia.”
“Therefore,” he says, “military pressure will continue,” and “Moscow will continue to attack as soon as it completes all the necessary preparations.” At the present time, “an intensive preparation for a summer campaign is going on,” one that will involve first militias it can disown but then may involve Russian units as well.
Thus, Felgengauer says, “the probability of a summer campaign is very high.”
While an unstable truce continues in the Donbass, “the propaganda campaign against the Ukrainian regime and the West is only intensifying” in Russia itself, the military analyst says. Shifting the direction of that campaign, which hasn’t happened, could “lead to the activation of a protest movement” in Russia as the country enters a new electoral cycle.
Indeed, Felgengauer suggests, Putin would face “very serious problems if he were to decide on a freezing of the conflict in the Donbas. As a result, this could lead to regime change in Moscow.” Consequently, he will try to inflict “tactical defeats” on the Ukrainian army in the hope that will lead to political change in Kyiv and the federalization or disintegration of Ukraine.
“In any case, according to the Kremlin’s scenario,” the Russian military analyst says, “Ukraine must not get the chance to develop independently or even more to build a democracy. This is something Moscow does not need at all, and that is exactly the outcome to which a frozen conflict could lead.”
Meanwhile, various Ukrainian writers are pointing to the Russian order of battle already present in eastern Ukraine or adjoining Russian regions as an indication that Putin may move even sooner than that, possibly as early as this coming weekend.
And Polish President Bronisław Komorowski told the Verkhovna Rada that “it is impossible not to see” that Russia has put military equipment and troops into Ukraine as part of an invasion. “Only the blind do not see this,” he said.
And Polish President Bronisław Komorowski told the Verkhovna Rada that “it is impossible not to see” that Russia has put military equipment and troops into Ukraine as part of an invasion. “Only the blind do not see this,” he said.
Komorowski said that “in the east, Ukraine is defending not only its own territorial integrity but also all of Europe from a return of the imperial past. The world will be secure only when Ukraine will be secure.” And consequently, “Europe must provide Ukraine with political economic and security support.”
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Stones and bottles lobbed at interior ministry forces to mimic clashes in Kiev
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Гражданин Узбекистана предстал перед федеральным судьей в Бруклине Originally published at - http://www.golos-ameriki.ru/media/video/isis...
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From: Голос Америки
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Пушков встретился с послом США Теффтом
Газета.Ru Глава международного комитета Госдумы Алексей Пушков встретился с послом США в России Джоном Теффтом, передает ТАССсо ссылкой на пресс-службу комитета. «Обсуждались следующие вопросы: можно ли улучшить российско-американские отношения в нынешней ситуации, ... Посол США в РФ будет представлять Вашингтон на параде Победы в МосквеКомсомольская правда Посол Джон Теффт представит США на параде 9 маяРБК США на Параде Победы представит посол Джон ТеффтИА REGNUM Коммерсантъ -ЛІГА.net -Комсомольская Правда в Украине Все похожие статьи: 47 » |
On April 2, six world powers signed a tentative deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program. Should it be finalized in June, one of the outcomes of the deal will be the lifting of the oil embargo from Iran—a country that has some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves. IMR analyst and editor-in-chief of imrussia.org, Olga Khvostunova, discusses how the deal could affect the Russian energy sector.
 ЛІГА.net |
МИД ФРГ пригласил коллег «нормандской четверки» в Берлин
Белорусские новости Министр иностранных дел Германии Франк-Вальтер Штайнмайер пригласил коллег по «нормандской четверке» встретиться в Берлине 13 апреля. Россия уже подтвердила участие в переговорах, сообщает Deutsche Welle. Встретиться 13 апреля в Берлине коллег по «нормандской ... Министерская встреча «нормандской четверки» пройдет 13 апреля в БерлинеСамарская газета Встреча глав МИД в формате "нормандской четверки" состоится 13 апреля в БерлинеПервый канал Берлин подтвердил встречу «четверки» в понедельникУкраинское национальное информагентство ЛІГА.net -euronews -Интерфакс Все похожие статьи: 51 » |
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 Forbes |
Russia Wants To Melt More Arctic Sea Ice
Forbes Russia's Deputy Prime Minister wants to melt more Arctic sea ice. That will make it easier for Rosneft and other oil majors to drill baby drill in the waters north of the Russian Arctic Circle. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin said Wednesday ... Russia's Rosneft keeps options open for rig contract in Kara SeaReuters Russia Opens Chinese Investment into Oil BusinessYibada (English Edition) all 9 news articles » |
Expect a Heated US Foreign Policy Debate in 2016by webdesk@voanews.com (Jim Malone)
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul entered the presidential race this week, ensuring a lively debate in the Republican primaries over foreign policy. Paul has long charted his own course on foreign affairs. Early on he supported negotiations with Iran over its nuclear ambitions and was one of the few Republican voices to question long-term military engagements overseas. In his campaign announcement in Louisville, Kentucky, Paul sought to strike a balance between a strong national defense in the age of terrorism without lengthy commitments of U.S. troops in overseas war zones. “I envision an America with a national defense unparalleled, undefeatable and unencumbered by overseas nation-building,” said Paul. He added that conservatives “should not succumb” to the notion that “a government inept at home will somehow succeed in building nations abroad.” Paul has been on the defensive since his announcement that some of his foreign policy views have changed, including a notably combative interview with NBC’s Today program. Paul also has come under attack by conservatives who seem him as too soft on foreign policy, including one group called the Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America. In recent months Paul has modified his views somewhat. He now supports military action against the so-called Islamic State, and he said in his announcement speech “the enemy is radical Islam. You can’t get around it.” Paul said if elected next year he would “do whatever it takes to defend America from these haters of mankind.” Despite his previous statements supportive of negotiations with Iran, Paul was one of 47 Republican senators to sign a letter to Iran’s leaders warning that any deal they reach with the Obama administration on its nuclear program could easily be undone by a future U.S. president. He also said any nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S. must be approved by Congress. Defining issue in primaries Paul became the second Republican to officially enter the race after Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has seen a surge in several national polls since his campaign launch. Florida Senator Marco Rubio is slated to become the third official Republican contender on Monday. Both Cruz and Rubio are expected to highlight a conservative approach on foreign policy sharply critical of the Obama administration’s record and more confrontational with regard to the challenges posed by the Islamic State and Iran. “Imagine a president who says, 'I will honor the Constitution and under no circumstances will Iran be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon,'” said Cruz in his announcement speech last month in Lynchburg, Virginia. Republicans expect a large field of 2016 contenders to formally join the race over the next several months and many of them believe foreign policy will be a major factor in next year’s election. Among those considering a White House run is former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton. He said he has been watching what he views as a shift in public concern about foreign policy issues. “I think that was evident to some extent in our last congressional elections in November of last year, and I think the evidence is building it will be far larger in the 2016 election,” said Bolton. Bolton said he will decide in the next few months. Factor in Republican primaries Conservative activists shopping for a Republican presidential candidate are paying more attention to their foreign policy views in this election cycle. “We all know that there is a building keg in about four different regions of the world today. We are just waiting for someone to light that match,” said Scottie Nell Hughes with the Tea Party News Network. “We are hoping we have somebody as commander in chief who knows how to handle it when it does explode,” he said. Hughes spoke at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland where there was a greater focus on foreign policy issues than in past years. Of course not everyone is convinced that foreign policy will be a deciding issue in next year’s campaign. “Other than the economy, which is always the major issue, there are no other big issues out there,” said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. “Obviously there is some concern over foreign policy. And with the economy improving it becomes less of an issue. But it is still the big issue.” If foreign policy does become a major issue, however, Democrats believe they have a trump card up their sleeve by the name of Hillary Clinton. The former secretary of state is expected to launch her presidential campaign soon, and she no doubt will highlight her achievements at the State Department under President Barack Obama as a key reason why she should ascend to the Oval Office in January of 2017.
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Russian obstruction must not deter economic and state reform
 The Kiev Times |
Экс-президент Польши предрек Украине третий Майдан и разворот к России
SakhaNews ИА SakhaNews. На Украине может произойти третий Майдан и разворот в сторону России, заявил 9 апреля в интервью TVN24 экс-президент Польши Александр Квасьневский. "Путин ждет, когда измученный украинский народ организует третий Майдан и скажет: "Хватит с нас этой ... Экс-президент Польши предсказал Украине очередной МайданМосковский комсомолец Квасьневский: третий Майдан кинет Украину в объятия РоссииИА REGNUM Украине не победить Россию военными средствами, — КвасьневскийТелеканал 24 Trans-Port -Information Agency CCI--Inform (Сhamber of Commerce and Industry Все похожие статьи: 45 » |
President Obama is in Jamaica on Thursday, meeting with Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and more than a dozen other leaders from throughout the Caribbean. It's the first stop on a three-day tour that also includes a hemispheric summit meeting in Panama. Topping Thursday's agenda is a looming energy crunch in the Caribbean, and a chance for the U.S. to seize the initiative there from leftist leaders in Venezuela.
[...]
Ukrainian Town Cut off By Military Struggles to Surviveby webdesk@voanews.com (Adam Bailes)
In eastern Ukraine, villages cut off by military front lines are on the brink of a humanitarian crisis. Ukraine's Kyiv government can't seem to get supplies in supplies and pro-Russia separatist forces have not been able to restore war-damaged services in towns behind their lines. Next week, European leaders are to meet in Germany to discuss Ukraine's cease-fire and concerns for civilians. As Adam Bailes reports from Krasnohorivka, the needs grow rapidly in many communities.
A greek icon stolen by German occupiers handed back to Alexis Tsipras in a sign of good will between countries
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Investigators probing last month’s Germanwings crash are trying to determine whether the Andreas Lubitz placed a chemical in the captain’s drink to force him to go to the toilet.
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Nordic nations agree on defense cooperation against Russia
Reuters "Russia's leaders have shown that they are prepared to make practical and effective use of military means in order to reach their political goals, even when this involves violating principles of international law," the ministers wrote in a joint ... and more » |
 Полит.ру |
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Temples Weigh India's Call to Deposit Gold, Earn Interestby webdesk@voanews.com (Reuters)
The two-century-old Shree Siddhivinayak temple in Mumbai, devoted to the Hindu elephant-headed god Ganesha, bristles with closed-circuit cameras and is guarded by 65 security officers. It is one of India's richest temples, having amassed 158 kilograms of gold offerings, worth $67 million, and its heavily guarded vaults are strictly off limits. India is the world's biggest consumer of gold, and its ancient temples have collected billions of dollars in jewelery, bars and coins over the centuries — all hidden securely in vaults, some ancient and some modern. A few years ago, an estimated $20 billion worth of gold was discovered in secret subterranean vaults in the Sree Padmanabha Swamy temple in Kerala state. Now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to get his hands on this temple gold, estimated at 3,000 metric tons — more than two-thirds as much gold as is held in the U.S. bullion depository at Fort Knox, Kentucky — to help tackle India's chronic trade imbalance. Modi's government is planning to launch a scheme in May that would encourage temples to deposit their gold with banks in return for interest payments. The government would melt the gold and loan it to jewelers to meet an insatiable appetite for gold and reduce economically crippling gold imports, which accounted for 28 percent of India's trade deficit in the year ending March 2013. 25 percent cut possible India's annual gold imports of 800 to 1,000 metric tons could be cut by a quarter if temples decided to participate in the scheme, government and industry sources said. "We would be happy to deposit our gold to nationalized banks if the policy is beneficial, safe and earns good interest,'' said Narendra Murari Rane, chairman of the trust for the Siddhivinayak temple, portions of which are gold-plated. But some Hindu devotees are not happy with the idea that their offerings could be melted down. A Mumbai gold merchant, who said he and his father had donated around 200 kilograms of gold to Siddhivinayak and other temples over the years, said it would be a sin for the temples to earn interest on the gold offered to the gods. "I make donations to God, not to any temple trust,'' the 52-year-old merchant said. Modi would also like to convince Indians to open their family vaults, which hold an estimated 17,000 metric tons of gold in jewelery and other heirlooms. But it will be much harder to persuade Indian families, who sometimes have little faith in financial institutions, to break with tradition and hand over gold passed down from generation to generation. Rooted in Hinduism India's love affair with gold spans centuries is rooted in the Hindu religion. One of the biggest annual buying seasons is the Diwali festival, around October to November. Gold marriage dowries are widespread, and with 70 percent of the population rural, gold is financial security. Key to Modi's plan will be the interest rates offered for gold deposits. A similar gold monetization plan launched in 1999 proved ineffective, in part because the interest rates offered on gold deposits were regarded by temple officials as too low. Under that scheme, India's top lender, the State Bank of India, offers 0.75 percent to 1 percent, and only 15 metric tons of gold has been deposited so far. Temple officials at Siddhivinayak and Shri Saibaba Sansthan in Shirdi, both in the western state of Maharashtra, said they expected interest rates in the new scheme to be much higher and so would consider participating. The government plans to reveal rate details when it launches the new scheme. Siddhivinayak's Rane said he expected at least 5 percent interest on gold deposits. A successful gold monetization program could go a long way toward helping India reduce its trade imbalance. India raised the import duty on gold, the country's biggest nonessential import, and imposed other restrictions in 2013 after the current account deficit hit a record $190 billion. If India can cut imports, that would pressure gold prices, which fell to a four-month low last month before recovering. Lower gold prices will then help India cut its import bill. However, a successful scheme could also expose the government to potential risks, if gold prices were to take off and depositors decided to withdraw at the same time.
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Newsweek |
Nordic Nations Agree on Closer Defense Cooperation Against Russia
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 Комсомольская Правда в Украине |
На Украине возобновлено старое уголовное дело против Игоря Коломойского
Коммерсантъ Генеральная прокуратура Украины возобновила расследование уголовного дела, возбужденного в отношении Игоря Коломойского в 2005 году. Бизнесмена обвиняют в организации покушения на жизнь адвоката Сергея Карпенко. Об этом заявил генпрокурор Украины Виктор Шокин в ... Против Коломойского возобновили старое уголовное делоМосковский комсомолец Прокуратура Украины возобновила против Коломойского старое делоРБК Генпрокуратура Украины возобновила уголовное дело в отношении КоломойскогоИА REGNUM РИА Новости -Интерфакс -Комсомольская Правда в Украине Все похожие статьи: 21 » |
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ДНР: Армия Украины начала танковый прорыв под Донецком
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 SoftСraze: актуально и обьективно |
Владимир Путин изобличил виновных в кровавой драме на Украине
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A man at a hearing in a fraudulent bankruptcy opened fire in a Milan courthouse on Thursday, killing a judge, a lawyer and a co-defendant and wounding at least two others.
The alliance cited an effort to limit the size of delegations from partner nations, but Western officials said an internal assessment had found that intelligence agents were part of Russia’s mission.
 Reuters |
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Obama Set to Engage Cubans in Panamaby webdesk@voanews.com (Luis Ramirez)
President Barack Obama has arrived in Panama for a summit at which he is expected to have a historic encounter with Cuban leader Raul Castro. President Obama arrived in the Panamanian capital Thursday night for the Summit of the Americas, which will for the first time include communist Cuba. There is no formal meeting planned, but White House officials said President Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro will interact. Earlier in Jamaica, Obama stopped short of announcing a U.S. government decision to take Cuba off Washington's list of state sponsors of terrorism. “As you know, there’s a process involved in reviewing whether or not a country should be on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list. That review has been completed at the State Department. It is now forwarded to the White House," Obama said. But the U.S. leader said a process still needs to happen, and he said he would not be making a formal announcement just yet. “The one thing I will say is that throughout this process, our emphasis has been on the facts. So we want to make sure that given that this is a powerful tool to isolate those countries that genuinely do support terrorism, that when we make those designations we’ve got strong evidence that, in fact, that’s the case," he said. Senator Ben Cardin of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Senate's Foreign Relations panel, confirmed the agency has recommended removing Cuba from the list. "The United States has a unique opportunity to begin a fresh chapter with Cuba,'' he said. President Obama has long signaled he is willing to remove the island nation from the list as part of the normalization in diplomatic relations between the two countries he announced late last year after a five-decade split. Three other countries are on the U.S. list, accused of repeatedly supporting global terrorism: Syria, Iran and Sudan. President Obama’s overtures to Cuban leaders come amid lingering questions about Cuba’s record on human rights. Obama arrived in Panama against a backdrop of questions about Cuba and human rights - as well as protests. Pro-Castro activists on Wednesday confronted Cuban dissidents outside the Cuban embassy in Panama City, shoving, kicking and insulting the dissidents who said at least some of the attackers had emerged from inside the embassy. The two-day summit of leaders of North and South America begins Friday.
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I killed 15 prisoners of war in Ukraine, claims Russian fighterby Oleg Sukhov for Kyiv Post
Head of separatist Sparta Battalion says he shot prisoners following the battle for Donetsk airport, prompting war crimes investigation by Ukrainian government. The Kyiv Post reports
A Russian fighter has confessed on tape to killing 15 Ukrainian prisoners of war, which legal experts say could be considered evidence of war crimes if the authenticity of the recording is confirmed.
The statement was made by Arseniy Pavlov, better known as Motorola, in a telephone conversation with a journalist on 3 April.
Continue reading...Secret service supervisor put on leave after accusations of assault by Sabrina Siddiqui in Washington
Female employee claims senior supervisor Xavier Morales assaulted her after work at the agency’s headquarters
The US secret service has put a manager on administrative leave and suspended his securityclearance, after a female employee accused him of assaulting her
after-hours at the agency headquarters last week.Secret service director Joseph Clancy confirmed late on Wednesday that the high-ranking official had been placed on leave, after
the Washington Post reported the incident.Continue reading...
 FOX News Radio |
Secret Service Supervisor On Leave After Assault Allegation
FOX News Radio A female Secret Service agent claims her boss, Xavier Morales, assaulted her after a party in Washington. She says he grabbed her arms and tried to kiss her at the agency headquarters. After she reported the alleged incident, the 48-year-old had to turn in ... and more » |
Turkmen Embassy In Minsk Hacked Apparently By ISby noreply@rferl.org (RFE/RL)
Turkmenistan's embassy in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, has been hacked by people with apparent links to the Islamic State extremist group.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An American man has been charged with trying to provide support for the Islamic State militant group, the U.S Justice Department said on Thursday.
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Graphic photos show a man being bombarded with rocks in a remote stretch of Homs province in front of crowds of bloodthirsty onlookers after being accused of having 'sex with animals'.
KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine, locked in conflict with Russian-backed separatists in its east, on Thursday drew up a new security doctrine denouncing Russia's "aggression" and setting its sights on joining the U.S.-led NATO military alliance.
The mysterious Panama hat-wearing robber was pictured by CCTV when he took part in a previous £13million robbery at a Graff diamond store in Knightsbridge, west London in 2007
 The Atlantic |
What Would a World Without Language Barriers Look Like?
The Atlantic On its website, in its promotional videos, and at live events, the company has been dwelling on what the technology offers average people: Students can talk to peers in classrooms around theworld and travelers can sync up with locals before trips abroad. and more » |
Woman may have faked link to victim of Germanwings crash for free flights by Associated Press in Berlin
German police investigating whether woman falsely claimed to be cousin of one of the teachers killed in plane crash last month
German police are looking into whether a woman falsely claimed to be a relative of a victim of last month’s Germanwings crash to get free flights to southern France.
Germanwings’ parent company, Lufthansa, organised special flights for victims’ relatives after the March 24 crash, which killed all 150 people on board.
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If you’re in the audience at a campaign event, there may be times when you sense that the prime minister is talking over your head
“It can be a bit baffling, elections,” explained David Cameron. “You’ve got the red team battling the blue team, the purple team attacking the yellow team…”
To Sherwood, Nottingham – not a great metaphorical space for the Tories – where the prime minister was patronising some National Grid apprentices. Hard to pick a highlight, but there was much to enjoy in the bit where he painstakingly explained the minimum wage to people who were probably a shade more across its realities than he was. Still, he was an apprentice once: maybe you’ll recall his little face in the background when Norman Lamont was explaining why the ERM had just handed Britain its arse.
Ed Miliband wants to renew Trident. David Cameron wants you to know that he wants to renew it more.
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HSBC files: France expands investigation to include global holding companyby James Ball and David Pegg in London, Angelique Chrisafis in Paris
French prosecutors widen inquiry after receiving file on alleged tax-related offences of HSBC’s Swiss banking subsidiary
French prosecutors have expanded their investigations into the activities of HSBC’s Swiss subsidiary to include its global holding company, the bank has disclosed.
Authorities completed an investigation into HSBC Suisse for alleged tax-related offences earlier this year, turning over a file to prosecutors to make a formal decision.
Continue reading... Voice of America |
Khamenei: Iran Nuclear Deal With West Not Final
Voice of America Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei demanded Western and U.N. economic sanctions imposed against Tehran be lifted as soon as final agreement is reached on Iran's nuclear development program. In an address Thursday, Khamenei said he is ... Yemen crisis: Iran's Khamenei condemns Saudi 'genocide'BBC News Ayatollah Khamenei calls nuclear framework agreement non-bindingHaaretz Iran's Supreme Leader Noncommital on Nuclear AgreementNew York Times Washington Post -TIME -The Daily Star all 796 news articles » |
Russia's Missing Article: Censorship, Prudence, Or A Win For Moscow's Troll Army? by noreply@rferl.org (Mark Krutov)
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