Igor Sergun: "Stratfor source heard a report that he died on New Year's Day in Lebanon... there is the question of whether the GRU can remain unified under a new leader..." | The official version of cause of Sergun's sudden death, based on autopsy, is the acute and extensive myocardial infarction, the contributing factors were described as "general exhaustion, overwork and lack of sleep"...
M.N.: It would be logical to assume that the GRU's main competitor is the SVR, not the FSB, and in the absence of the strong and skillful leader of the GRU, who Sergun undoubtedly was ( he practically revived the organisation and made it as powerful as in "good old days", if not visibly more powerful), it is M. Fradkov 's and SVR 's positions that did get relatively strengthened. The possible implications of this hypothetical power and influence shifts is an important but separate question. I do not think that much is known about the details of the competition between these two organisations and their respective leaders. As to the circumstances of Sergun's death, the version of "Stratfor's source which heard a report" is possible but probably should be treated as putative (these circumstances are really still unknown, at least publicly), until some firmer evidence surfaces and is established. Curiously enough, general Ivanov , who (as far a